NFL Game Previews: Monday Night Matchups

Kansas City at Buffalo (+3.5), o/u 57.5 – Monday, 5 p.m. EDT

Last week's flop for Kansas City against the Raiders was a shocker, and while the defense's collapse was alarming, the offense's inability to respond also raised eyebrows. Miracles have become so commonplace for Patrick Mahomes, it's weird when he doesn't come up with one. Injuries along the offensive line are becoming an issue – if right tackle Mitchell Schwartz can't go Monday, the unit will effectively be down three starters – and that might be part of the reason why first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't taken the NFL by storm. The rookie will get competition for touches from Le'Veon Bell beginning in Week 7, but if the blocking up front is the problem, Bell isn't going to have much more luck finding holes than CEH was (although he'll still find more than the Jets were getting him). The Bills are also coming off a head-scratching first loss of the season, but theirs might be more inexplicable, as they let themselves get routed by a Titans squad that was barely able to practice for two weeks. Now they have to deal with Mahomes on short rest. Josh Allen has his worst game of the season, "only" accounting for two TDs while throwing two INTs, but even then his 63.4 percent completion rate – worst of 2020 by more than five points – was still miles better than his first two years in the league. The obvious issue for him seemed to be that without John Brown, he tried to force too many passes to Stefon Diggs, but if he can spread the ball around a little more, he's capable of doing to this K.C. secondary what Derek Carr just did to them.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (out, hamstring), LG Kelechi Osemele (out, knee), RT Schwartz (questionable, back)

BUF injuries: WR Brown (questionable, knee), TE Dawson Knox (out, calf), LG Quinton Spain (questionable, foot), LB Matt Milano (questionable, pectoral), CB Tre'Davious White (questionable, back)

KC DFS targets: Tyreek Hill $7,100 DK / $8,300 FD (BUF 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS targets: Devin Singletary $5,700 DK / $6,300 FD (KC 27th in YPC allowed)

KC DFS fades: none

BUF DFS fades: John Brown $4,900 DK / $5,800 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. deep throws), Bills DST $2,600 DK / $3,800 FD (KC third in sack rate allowed, second in INT% allowed)

Key stat: KC is third in third-down conversions at 51.5 percent; BUF is 30th in third-down defense at 50.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Edwards-Helaire picks up 100 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) twice and Travis Kelce once. Singletary gains 70 yards and catches a TD pass, while Zack Moss adds 50 yards. Allen throws for 290 yards and a second score to Diggs while running in a touchdown of his own. Kansas City, 31-27

Arizona at Dallas (+1.5), o/u 55.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Cards are actually 3-2, but it really doesn't feel like they're a team that should be over .500. They're last two wins have been against Washington and the Jets, while they're two losses are against the Panthers and Lions. They don't have any other teams on their schedule with cat nicknames, though, so maybe they'll be OK. Kyler Murray's turnovers are a reminder he's only in his second season, but 13 TDs (eight passing, five rushing) also highlight just how close he is to becoming a superstar, and DeAndre Hopkins certainly has few complains about his new quarterback. Speaking of new quarterbacks... Dak Prescott's fractured ankle was heart-breaking to watch given the year he's had and the chance he may have missed to set records both on the field and in free agency next offseason, but the show must go on for Dallas – and that show is now Have Red Rifle, Will Travel. Andy Dalton takes over under center, and he looked pretty good leading two late drives last week to set up the tying and winning field goals. The veteran QB has the deepest corps of receivers in the league (even No. 4 and No. 5 guys Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown have been showing out when given the chance) and Ezekiel Elliot in the backfield, and while an injury-ravaged offensive line is a shadow of its former self, Arizona just lost its only real pass-rushing threat in Chandler Jones, so Dalton should have enough time to find an open man. He'll probably need it – the defense remains a disaster and about as threatening as the Apple Dumpling Gang. Games involving the Cowboys will probably continue to produce pinball numbers until further notice.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RG J.R. Sweezy (IR, elbow), OLB Jones (IR, biceps), OLB Devon Kennard (questionable, calf)

DAL injuries: QB Prescott (out, ankle), LT Tyron Smith (IR, neck), C Joe Looney (IR, knee)

ARI DFS targets: Christian Kirk $4,700 DK / $5,600 FD (DAL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DAL DFS targets: Ezekiel Elliott $8,100 DK / $9,500 FD (ARI 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

ARI DFS fades: Chase Edmonds $5,200 DK / $6,000 FD (DAL third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is third in red-zone conversions at 81.3 percent, DAL is t-20th in red-zone defense at 65.0 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake leads the ARI backfield with 110 yards and a touchdown. Murray has a huge night, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs, two to Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) and one to Kirk while also running in a score of his own. Elliott bangs out 140 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Dalton throws for 270 yards and two more scores, finding CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Cardinals, 35-31

Denver (+10) at New England, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Whoa, I have the weirdest sense of deja vu writing up this game. The unexpected week off should ensure both team have their starting QBs in the lineup, which is probably a bigger boost for the Patriots than the Broncos, but we still don't have a great sense of what Drew Lock is capable of. New England also has Stephon Gilmore available, but that surprisingly hasn't made a huge difference this season as guys like DK Metcalf and Tyreek Hill have put up numbers against the Pats. Jerry Jeudy isn't at that level yet, and for that matter Lock isn't Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes, but the New England secondary wasn't going to be able to repeat its performance from the first half of last year anyway. Denver also might have to throw it more if Melvin Gordon ends up sitting for disciplinary reasons.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: QB Lock (questionable, shoulder), RB Gordon (questionable, personal/illness), WR KJ Hamler (out, hamstring), TE Noah Fant (questionable, ankle)

NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee), LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, calf), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf)

DEN DFS targets: Drew Lock $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (NE 31st in TD% allowed), Jerry Jeudy $5,500 DK / $5,700 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS targets: N'Keal Harry $4,500 DK / $5,400 FD (DEN 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DEN DFS fades: Melvin Gordon $6,000 DK / $6,600 FD (NE t-first in rushing TDs allowed), Noah Fant $5,400 DK / $5,800 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: Damien Harris $5,000 DK / $5,600 FD (DEN third in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: DEN is 25th in third-down conversions at 38.0 percent; NE is sixth in third-down defense at 36.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Phillip Lindsay leads the DEN backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Lock throws for 260 yards and a second score to Jeudy but gets picked off twice. Harris bangs out 70 yards. Cam Newton throws for 210 yards and touchdowns to Harry and James White and runs for 50 yards and a score of his own. Patriots, 30-20

Houston (+3) at Tennessee, o/u 52.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Texans celebrated the end of Bill O'Brien's ignominious regime with a win last week, scoring their most points of the year and allowing their fewest, but doing all that against the Jaguars doesn't exactly promise a turnaround. Taking on the Titans should offer a much better test of where they're actually at under Romeo Crennel. David Johnson arguably had his best game of the year, and Deshaun Watson and Brandin Cooks definitely did, and this offense does have the weapons to stay competitive if it gets going. The defense just lost a key piece in Benardrick McKinney though, and the unit wasn't exactly flush with talent when healthy. Tennessee is coming off a huge win over Buffalo after it's COVID layoff, perhaps proving that in-season rest is more important than prep time, and while they now have to deal with a short week, it's no accident they're one of four undefeated teams left in the league. Derrick Henry remains a steamroller, the passing game has multiple dangerous options, and the defense sits in the top 10 in QB rating against and points per game allowed. Then again, they're 32nd in third-down defense and 31st in red-zone defense, so someone is going to come along sooner or later and exploit the flaws in their armor. Whether that someone will be the Texans is a completely different question, though.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: TE Jordan Akins (questionable, concussion), LT Laremy Tunsil (questionable, shoulder), LB McKinney (IR, shoulder)

TEN injuries: WR A.J. Brown (questionable, knee), TE Jonnu Smith (questionable, quad), LT Taylor Lewan (questionable, shoulder), RT Dennis Kelly (questionable, groin), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), CB Malcolm Butler (questionable, quad), CB Johnathan Joseph (questionable, hamstring), S Kenny Vaccaro (questionable, hamstring)

HOU DFS targets: David Johnson $5,400 DK / $6,400 FD (TEN 32nd in YPC allowed)

TEN DFS targets: Titans DST $2,800 DK / $4,000 FD (third in INT%, HOU 30th in sack rate allowed)

HOU DFS fades: Randall Cobb $4,400 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN first in DVOA vs. WR3), Texans DST $2,700 DK / $3,800 FD (32nd in INT%, TEN second in sack rate allowed)

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is 13th in third-down conversions at 46.0 percent; HOU is 19th in third-down defense at 45.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 HOU, average score 26-19 HOU, average margin of victory 15 points. The road team won both meetings last year after having won six straight

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, 9-11 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson scampers for 120 combined yards and a score. Watson throws for 250 yards and a TD to Darren Fells. Henry hammers out 110 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill throws for 270 yards and three TDs, finding Smith, Brown and Kalif Raymond. Titans, 28-20

Cleveland (+3) at Pittsburgh, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Week 1 debacle against the Ravens is a distant memory, as the Browns have reeled off four straight wins to put themselves in the thick of the AFC North title hunt. On the surface the loss of Nick Chubb didn't seem to slow the offense down much last week, as they scored more than 30 points for the fourth straight game, but a pick-six and a safety courtesy of Philip Rivers helped pad that total. The Steelers are also one of the tougher teams to mound a ground attack against – only one of their four opponents has managed 100 total rushing yards against them this season, and they've held two of them (the Giants and Texans) below 30. That old Steel Curtain style has taken a lot of pressure off Ben Roethlisberger in his return, and he's been very efficient while only attempting more than 40 passes once. Chase Claypool's emergence also gives him another weapon to play with, even if he's probably never going to find the end zone four times in a game ever again.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: QB Baker Mayfield (questionable, ribs), RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, thigh), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, illness), WR Jarvis Landry (questionable, ribs), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), RG Wyatt Teller (out, calf), DE Olivier Vernon (questionable, groin), S Karl Joseph (out, hamstring)

PIT injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (out, back), RG David DeCastro (out, abdomen)

CLE DFS targets: Odell Beckham $64,00 DK / $6,700 FD (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws), Rashard Higgins $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS targets: Steelers DST $3,600 DK / $4,500 FD (first in sack rate, second in INT%)

CLE DFS fades: Kareem Hunt $6,900 DK / $7,000 FD (PIT first in rushing DVOA against, second in YPC allowed), Austin Hooper $3,900 DK / $5,200 FD (PIT third in DVOA vs. TE)

PIT DFS fades: Chase Claypool $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (CLE third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: PIT is ninth in third-down conversions at 48.3 percent; CLE is t-21st in third-down defense at 46.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-1-1 PIT, average score 24-17 PIT, average margin of victory 10 points. CLE has lost 16 straight games in Pittsburgh, with their last victory at Heinz Field coming in 2003 when Tim Couch threw TDs to Andre' Davis and Kevin Johnson in a 33-13 win. 

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hunt managed 60 combined yards. Baker Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two TDs, hitting Beckham and Higgins. James Conner racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and three touchdowns to JuJu Smith-Schuster, Anthony McFarland and James Washington. Steelers, 34-17

Baltimore at Philadelphia (+7.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

There's this weird perception that the Ravens have underachieved to begin the year, since their offense hasn't been wrecking every front seven they face the way it did in 2019 and Lamar Jackson isn't on another MVP pace. The overall stats tell a different story – they lead the league in point differential by a very healthy margin thanks to a defense that's given up the fewest points per game (15.2), and they're still third in rushing yards per game at 160.8. There are at least 25 other teams in the NFL that would love to be underachieving like that, and the Eagles are definitely one of them. Laughably only half a game back of the Cowboys for the NFC East lead at 1-3-1, Philly is slowly finding new pieces to rebuild its offense as second-year receiver Travis Fulgham, a sixth-round pick of the Lions last year who briefly floated across the Packers' roster in the offseason, has suddenly emerged as Carson Wentz's new best friend with a 12-209-2 line on 16 targets the last two games. Maybe Fulgham demanding defensive attention will finally free up Wentz's old best friend Zach Ertz, who hasn't hit double-digit receiving yards in two straight weeks and hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. The real problem for the Eagles is that battered offensive line though, which just lost another starter and is basically down to Jason Kelce and four guys with their name patches velcroed to their jerseys. Fortunately they're only facing a Ravens pass rush that (puts hand to ear)... what's that? I've just been informed that Baltimore is sixth in pressure rate. Ulp. Sorry, Carson.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: WR Miles Boykin (questionable, thigh), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, shoulder), RG Tyre Phillips (questionable, shoulder), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, thigh), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, knee)

PHI injuries: WR Alshon Jeffery (out, foot), WR DeSean Jackson (out, hamstring), RT Lane Johnson (out, ankle), LB Duke Riley (out, ribs), CB Darius Slay (questionable, concussion), CB Avonte Maddox (out, ankle)

BAL DFS targets: Mark Andrews $6,500 DK / $7,600 FD (PHI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS targets: Zach Ertz $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD (BAL 22nd in DVOA vs. TE)

BAL DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: Miles Sanders $6,600 DK / $7,600 FD (BAL second in rushing DVOA against)

Key stat: BAL is 19th in red-zone conversions at 62.5 percent; PHI is 27th in red-zone defense at 73.7 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mark Ingram leads the BAL backfield with 60 combined yards, but J.K. Dobbins catches a TD pass. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Andrews while running in a score of his own. Sanders claws out 70 scrimmage yards, Wentz throws for 200 yards but does find Ertz and Greg Ward for scores while also running in a TD. Ravens 30-21

Washington (+3) at N.Y. Giants, o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

While this could end up being the opening salvo in the Tostitos #TankForTrevor Bowl, I have a hard time imagining any NFC East team finishing last in the overall standings, as the division is just so weak both teams should stumble into a couple wins eventually despite themselves. Washington will give Kyle Allen another chance under center, and this time he won't have to deal with Aaron Donald, which is a plus. Terry McLaurin might be hoping the QB roulette wheel lands back on Dwayne Haskins sometime soon, though – the wideout had his worst numbers of the year last week trying to catch passes from Allen and Alex Smith, whose heartwarming return to action didn't exactly have a Hollywood ending when his 17 passes attempts netted a whopping 37 yards. The Giants seem set at quarterback, but second-year man Daniel Jones hasn't thrown a TD pass since Week 1. You can use the quality of opposition excuse in the first three games, but if you can't light up the awful Dallas defense, there is something very wrong. Devonta Freeman is settling in well enough as Saquon Barkley's replacement, and Darius Slayton has seized the No. 1 receiver gig, so it's not like Jones doesn't have weapons. The defense has also been showing up, but if the offense doesn't start holding up its end of the bargain, that may not last. The Giants currently sit 28th in average time of possession per game and 26th in net yards per drive, but hey, Washington is 29th and 32nd respectively in those categories. If you're in a fantasy league that's found a way to score punting, this may be the game for you.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: none

NYG injuries: WR Slayton (questionable, foot)

WAS DFS targets: Isaiah Wright $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (NYG 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS targets: Evan Engram $4,900 DK / $5,600 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: Golden Tate $4,600 DK / $5,400 FD (WAS first in DVOA vs. WR2), C.J. Board $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (WAS fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: WAS is 32nd in third-down conversions at 29.9 percent; NYG are 31st in third-down defense at 53.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NYG, average score 24-18 NYG, average margin of victory 10 points. NYG have won three straight meetings

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 10-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Antonio Gibson picks up 90 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for under 200 yards but doesn't commit a turnover. Freeman runs for 80 yards and a score. Jones throws for 220 yards and a TD to Engram, but his fourth-quarter fumble sets up the winning score for WAS (who miss the two-point conversion). Washington, 22-17

Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota, o/u 54.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Dan Quinn era is finally over, but it's not exactly a good omen that Raheem Morris' tenure began with a couple positive COVID tests. As I write this this game is going ahead, and Matt Ryan might have a fully healthy complement of receivers again, but scoring points has never been Atlanta's problem. It's preventing them that's the issue – only Dallas has given up more points per game this year, and only Seattle has surrendered more yards. The Vikings look to be headed for that sort of season too, but a win over the Texans sandwiched between one-point losses to the undefeated Titans and Seahawks has produced some optimism despite the 1-4 record. Dalvin Cook just had his annual injury, but this one isn't too bad, and Alexander Mattison (late flub on fourth and one notwithstanding) looked more than solid in his place last week. This game might come down to which defense can make a play. Not a big play, not a crucial play, just any old play will do.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: none

MIN injuries: RB Cook (out, groin), RG Dru Samia (out, wrist), CB Holton Hill (doubtful, foot)

ATL DFS targets: Julio Jones $6,700 DK / $8,200 FD (MIN 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS targets: Kirk Cousins $6,100 DK / $7,100 FD (ATL 30th in passing DVOA against, 32nd in QB rating against, 31st in YPA allowed)

ATL DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is fourth in red-zone conversions at 76.5 percent; ATL is t-28th in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Todd Gurley gains 90 yards and a TD. Ryan throws for 300 yards and two scores, finding Julio (who tops 100 yards) and Hayden Hurst. Mattison also picks up 90 yards, but Mike Boone adds 40 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 280 yards and three TDs to Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith. Vikings 34-24

Detroit at Jacksonville (+3), o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Not a lot went right for the Lions in the first quarter of their schedule. They did grab an upset win in Arizona, but Matt Patricia has successfully made a mess of his backfield and the defense is one of the weakest units in the league. Patricia's now a brutal 10-25-1 since taking over in 2018, but Detroit has a long track record of waiting way too long to fire bad coaches and GMs if they can talk a good game, so they may not have hit bottom yet. The Jags are right there with the Lions in the one-win club, but they didn't really have higher expectations coming into 2020. This is a show-me year in Jacksonville, and guys like Gardner Minshew and James Robinson are showing they could be part of the future of the club, and even after shipping out half the secondary, there's still some high-pedigree talent on defense. The question is how quickly that talent can develop and gel – the Jags have coughed up at least 30 points every week during their four-game losing streak, and the Lions have the firepower to make it five straight if Doug Marrone's crew isn't careful.

The Skinny

DET injuries: C Frank Ragnow (questionable, groin), CB Desmond Trufant (out, hamstring)

JAC injuries: WR DJ Chark (questionable, ankle), TE Tyler Eifert (questionable, neck), DE Josh Allen (questionable, knee)

DET DFS targets: Matthew Stafford $6,300 DK / $7,300 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA against, 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in YPA allowed), T.J. Hockenson $5,300 DK / $5,700 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS targets: James Robinson $6,800 DK / $6,500 FD (DET 31st in rushing DVOA against, 30th in YPC allowed), DJ Chark $6,300 DK / $6,600 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DET DFS fades: Kenny Golladay $6,200 DK / $7,200 FD (JAC third in DVOA vs. WR1)

JAC DFS fades: Tyler Eifert $3,400 DK / $4,500 FD (DET second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: DET is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent; JAC is ninth in red-zone defense at 57.1 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 11 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Adrian Peterson leads the DET backfield with 70 yards, but D'Andre Swift hits for 50 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns to Hockenson and Danny Amendola. Robinson piles up 110 yards and a score. Minshew throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Chark (who tops 100 yards) and one to Chris Thompson. Jaguars 31-24

Cincinnati (+7.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's funny how quickly we let our perceptions of teams change. Coming into the season, if I'd told you the Bengals would get absolutely crushed by the Ravens in Week 5, you probably would have shrugged and said, "Of course they will." And yet, coming off Joe Burrow's first professional win and Cincy's general competence through the first quarter of the season, it seemed like they at least might not be hopelessly outclassed. Week 6 gives them a chance to redeem themselves. The Colts' defense has been one of the stories of the early campaign, but they haven't exactly faced the cream of the crop in terms of QBs (Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Nick Foles and Baker Mayfield), and the team is only 3-2 thanks largely to a surprisingly meh running game and Philip Rivers not being any better than the quarterbacks he's been matched up against. Given the quality of the team's offensive line, you'd think at least one of those units would be thriving, but a clash against a Bengals defense that sits bottom four in rushing yards per game allowed and YPC allowed might be just what Jonathan Taylor needs to bust out.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: CB Mackensie Alexander (questionable, ribs)

IND injuries: TE Mo Alie-Cox (out, knee), LT Anthony Castonzo (questionable, ribs), DE Justin Houston (questionable, hip), LB Darius Leonard (doubtful, groin)

CIN DFS targets: Giovani Bernard $4,000 DK / $4,600 FD (IND 21st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

IND DFS targets: Jonathan Taylor $6,400 DK / $7,300 FD (CIN 29th in YPC allowed), Colts DST $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (first in INT%, CIN 31st in sack rate allowed)

CIN DFS fades: Joe Burrow $5,400 DK / $7,100 FD (IND first in passing DVOA against, first in QB rating against, second in YPA allowed), Joe Mixon $6,200 DK / $6,900 FD (IND t-first in rushing TDs allowed), Tee Higgins $4,700 DK / $5,500 FD (IND second in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN is t-29th in third-down conversions at 33.3 percent; IND is 10th in third-down defense at 38.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Mixon manages 70 yards, while Bernard catches a TD pass. Burrow throws for 230 yards and a second score to A.J. Green. Taylor erupts for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Rivers doesn't need to do much, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Marcus Johnson. Colts 27-17

Chicago (+1.5) at Carolina, o/y 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The switch to Nick Foles hasn't really made much of a difference for the Chicago offense. They've scored only 31 points combined in his two starts and had their two worst yardage games of the year with him under center, although to be fair they were facing their two toughest defenses in the Colts and Bucs. It's the Bears' defense that's carried the club to its 4-1 record, and that formula isn't likely to change as long as Allen Robinson remains the only player the opposition has to worry about. The Panthers come in riding a three-game winning streak that's even more remarkable when you consider they've gotten zero snaps from Christian McCaffrey during that time. Teddy Bridgewater has been outstanding, completing 73.5 percent of his passes with an 8.1 YPA and 5:1 TD:INT in those three wins, while both Robby Anderson and DJ Moore have put a ton of pressure on the opposition secondary. That might be why Mike Davis is doing such a credible CMac impression, but Carolina's own defense deserves a little credit too for holding Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan to 21 points or less each.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: LG Alex Bars (questionable, shoulder)

CAR injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, knee), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, toe), CB Eli Apple (questionable, hamstring)

CHI DFS targets: David Montgomery $5,800 DK / $5,900 FD (CAR 31st in YPC allowed)

CAR DFS targets: Curtis Samuel $4,300 DK / $5,100 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS fades: Anthony Miller $4,300 DK / $5,200 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. WR3)

CAR DFS fades: Teddy Bridgewater $6,000 DK / $6,900 FD (CHI second in QB rating against, fourth in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Mike Davis $7,000 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI second in passing DVOA vs. RB), Robby Anderson $6,300 DK / $6,500 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1), DJ Moore $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (CHI fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: CHI is t-28th in third-down conversions at 33.3 percent; CAR is 29th in third-down defense at 50.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Montgomery gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Foles throws for 220 yards and a TD to Robinson but gets picked off twice. Davis is held to 60 yards. Bridgewater throws for 250 yards and a score to Seth Roberts, while Joey Slye has a big day. Panthers 19-14

N.Y. Jets (+9.5) at Miami, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

So much for Levvy and the Jets. Adam Gase finally killed his fatted calf and chased Le'Veon Bell out of town, but with the spotlight hitting an 0-5 record that's been known to change a coaching staff, Gase would be hearing a solid wall of boos during home games if fans were allowed into MetLife Stadium these days. For at least one more week, he'll get to pretend like injuries are the problem and not the way he's gutted the roster of talent, while 37-year-old Frank Gore gets another 15 or so carries. On the other hand, the Dolphins are looking like a real NFL team just one year after doing their own housecleaning, a testament to Brian Flores' skill as a motivator if nothing else. I keep calling for Ryan Fitzpatrick to fall apart and he keeps proving me wrong, so you might want to be wary about using him this week considering I'm now leaning into his hot streak, but back-to-back 300-yard performances and a 71.4 percent completion rate, 8.2 YPA and 7:2 TD:INT in his last four games is hard to ignore. DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki have taken turns coming up big on the end of Fitzmagic's tosses, and last week's road thrashing of the Niners wasn't just a product of San Francisco's lengthy injured list. The Fish look legit, and the Jets really, really don't, so while there have been some kooky outcomes in this rivalry before, it's hard to imagine a way this one goes wrong for Miami – unless Fitzpatrick chooses this week to turn into a pumpkin, of course.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Sam Darnold (doubtful, shoulder), WR Breshad Perriman (questionable, ankle), LT Mekhi Becton (doubtful, shoulder), LG Alex Lewis (questionable, shoulder), DE Quinnen Williams (questionable, hamstring), CB Blessuan Austin (questionable, calf)

MIA injuries: none

NYJ DFS targets: Frank Gore $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (MIA 32nd in rushing DVOA against, 28th in YPC allowed), Braxton Berrios $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS targets: Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,900 DK / $7,400 FD (NYJ 31st in passing DVOA against), Myles Gaskin $5,400 DK / $5,700 FD (NYJ 31st in rushing TDs allowed), DeVante Parker $6,300 DK / $6,400 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

NYJ DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 28th in third-down conversions at 34.8 percent; MIA is seventh in third-down defense at 38.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 MIA, average score 21-21, average margin of victory 10 points. The last five meetings have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 70s, 11-18 mph wind, 50-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gore grinds out 50 yards, while La'Mical Perine gains 40 and a touchdown. Joe Flacco throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Jamison Crowder and Berrios. Gaskin dashes for 80 combined yards and a score, while Matt Breida adds 50 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, finding Parker (who tops 100 yards) twice and Williams once. Dolphins 37-21

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+1), o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Which team has had the most prolific offense to begin the season? Not Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, and not Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Nope, it's been Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, pacing the field at a staggering 38.0 points a game. The fact that Rodgers has done it while only having Davante Adams available for about six quarters makes his devastating start even more remarkable. It should also be noted, though, that Rodgers has benefited from facing some pretty bad secondaries, and the Bucs will be his first true test of 2020. As for Tampa's future Hall of Fame quarterback, Tom Brady's adjustment to Bruce Arians' offense has had some hiccups. Brady's on pace for his highest TD total since 2011, but he's also on pace to tie his career high in INTs, and a distressing number of them have turned into pick-sixes. Like Rodgers though, his top targets have been banged up, and he could have both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin playing at something close to 100 percent for the first time in Week 6. With Adams also returning to action for Green Bay, it's no wonder the over/under here is sky high, even given the Bucs' strong start on defense. There's also the matter of this being a rubber match of sorts – the record between Brady and Rodgers is 1-1 in games they've started, and you can be sure both guys know it.

The Skinny

GB injuries: OLB Za'Darius Smith (questionable, ankle), CB Kevin King (questionable, quad)

TB injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (questionable, ankle), CB Carlton Davis (questionable, abdomen)

GB DFS targets: Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,600 DK / $5,600 FD (TB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

TB DFS targets: Ronald Jones $6,000 DK / $5,800 FD (GB 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Chris Godwin $6,400 DK / $7,700 FD (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

GB DFS fades: Aaron Rodgers $7,500 DK / $8,400 FD (TB fourth in passing DVOA against), Aaron Jones $7,600 DK / $8,500 FD (TB third in rushing DVOA against, first in YPC allowed), Davante Adams $8,000 DK / $9,000 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)

TB DFS fades: Justin Watson $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3), Buccaneers DST $3,100 DK / $4,000 FD (GB first in sack rate allowed, first in INT% allowed)

Key stat: GB is fourth in third-down conversions at 51.1 percent; TB is ninth in third-down defense at 38.3 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 80s, 14-15 mph wind, 20-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Aaron Jones manages 60 yards. Rodgers has a big game, throwing for 280 yards and three TDs to Valdes-Scantling, Adams and Robert Tonyan. Ronald Jones gallops for 70 yards but gets benched after a second-half fumble is scooped up and returned to the house by Darnell Savage, while Ke'Shawn Vaughn catches a touchdown pass. Brady throws for 300 yards and two more scores, both to Godwin (who tops 100 yards). Packers, 34-30

L.A. Rams at San Francisco (+3), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Rams are 4-1, and it's been their defense that's made the difference for the most part – the only game they lost was the only one in which they allowed more than 19 points. There was a lot of chatter about how shallow the unit was after Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but the supposed spare parts around them have been more than holding their own, and first-year coordinator Brandon Staley deserves a lot of credit. On the other hand, you could also say they're 4-0 against the NFC East and 0-1 against real teams, so maybe we shouldn't give them a playoff slot just yet. This might not be the week they get exposed if they're going to be, though. The 49ers just got humiliated at home by the Dolphins, and while normally you'd assume they aren't going to let that happen twice, particularly against a division rival, they simply may not have enough healthy bodies to do much to stop it. The offense will be at close to full strength, although who knows if Jimmy Garoppolo will be at 100 percent yet given how he looked last week, but there are still a lot of important players missing on the defensive side of the ball, and the pass rush especially has lost its teeth with Nick Bosa or Dee Ford on IR.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: LB Micah Kiser (questionable, groin)

SF injuries: LB Kwon Alexander (out, ankle), CB Emmanuel Moseley (questionable, concussion)

LAR DFS targets: Rams DST $3,500 DK / $4,600 FD (second in sack rate, SF 29th in sack rate allowed)

SF DFS targets: Raheem Mostert $6,300 DK / $6,400 FD (LAR 19th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LAR DFS fades: none

SF DFS fades: Jimmy Garoppolo $5,400 DK / $6,600 FD (LAR third in passing DVOA against, first in YPA allowed, second in TD% allowed)

Key stat: SF is 19th in third-down conversions at 42.1 percent; LAR are third in third-down defense at 35.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 SF, average score 24-24, average margin of victory 14 points

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cam Akers leads the LAR backfield with 80 yards and a TD, while Darrell Henderson adds 50 yards and a score. Jared Goff throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns to Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds. Mostert pops for 120 yards and a score. Garoppolo struggles again, throwing for under 200 yards and a TD to Deebo Samuel. Rams, 31-20

Last week's record: 10-4, 5-9 ATS, 5-9 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 48-28-1, 37-38-2 ATS, 29-46-2 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 841-510-6, 630-675-52 ATS, 522-557-22 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)