NFL Game Previews: Week 11 Matchups

Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (+3.5) in Mexico City, 52.0 o/u Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

This game being played in Estadio Azteca — 7,200 feet above sea level — presents an interesting set of challenges. Last year's game here between the Chiefs and Rams had to be relocated when the field wasn't in any condition to host an NFL game, but presumably that won't be an issue this time around. Kansas City comes stumbling into this one having lost four of its last six, and the injury to Patrick Mahomes can't explain last week's loss to Tennessee. With Damien Williams seemingly reclaiming the top spot in the backfield, the offense could be ready to return to juggernaut status, but the defense still needs to give a more consistent effort to avoid the Chiefs coming out on the wrong end of more shootouts. The Chargers looked like they were gearing up for their usual second-half surge, but last week's loss to the Raiders was an unexpected speed bump. Melvin Gordon and the running game have looked much improved under new OC Shane Steichen, but that turnaround hasn't extended to Philip Rivers. The 37-year-old is looking his age, and a 7:8 TD:INT over the last six games just isn't going to cut it. The Bolts' offensive line has done a good job protecting him — it's ninth in sack percentage allowed — but if the Chiefs' pass rush (seventh in sack percentage) can make him uncomfortable in the pocket, it could be tough for Rivers to keep pace with the young gun he's facing.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RT Mitchell Schwartz (questionable, knee)

LAC injuries: LT Russell Okung (questionable, groin), RT Sam Tevi (out, knee)

KC DFS chalk: none

LAC DFS chalk: Gordon (KC 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards allowed per game, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in rushing DVOA)

KC DFS tournament plays: Williams (LAC 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LAC DFS tournament plays: Austin Ekeler (see Gordon), Andre Patton (KC 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: KC is seventh in third-down offense at 45.2 percent; LAC are 23rd in third-down defense at 43.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 KC, average score 28-17 KC, average margin of victory 11 points. KC had won nine straight meetings before last year's 29-28 LAC win in Week 15.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Williams piles up 130 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and two more scores, finding Tyreek Hill (who tops 100 yards) and Sammy Watkins. Gordon runs for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Ekeler adds 60 combined yards. Rivers throws for 260 yards and a TD to Mike Williams. Chiefs, 34-20

Atlanta (+5.5) at Carolina, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It only took the Falcons ... hmm (checks calendar), well, it took them a while to get going this season, and it required an assistant coach shuffle to do it, but Atlanta finally looked like a contender last week in the upset over New Orleans. They'd need to run the table just to get to nine wins, so the playoffs probably aren't in the cards, but they could end up playing the role of second-half spoiler if the performance against the Saints wasn't just a blip — their remaining schedule includes the second matchup with New Orleans, a Week 15 clash with the Niners, and two games against the Panthers. Matt Ryan may not be 100 percent healthy yet, failing to top 200 passing yards last week in his return to the lineup (he tossed better than 300 in each of the first six games of the year), but he also didn't have to with the defense showing some backbone. Carolina's lost two of three since coming out of its bye, but losing to the Niners and Packers isn't a huge black mark against them. Kyle Allen threw for more than 300 yards for the first time last week, but his five INTs in the last three games (after not throwing any in his first four starts) is concerning. Fortunately, the team's offense still flows through Christian McCaffrey. The only opponent to keep CMac out of the end zone this year was the Bucs in their first meeting, and he scored twice against them in the rematch to make up for it. He's on pace for nearly 2,500 scrimmage yards and 25 touchdowns. It's been more than a decade since anyone hit pay dirt that often (LaDainian Tomlinson's NFL-record 31 TDs in 2006), and Chris Johnson's record of 2,509 combined yards from 2009 is also firmly in McCaffrey's sights. His dominance out of the backfield has also opened things up for the Panthers' passing game, and D.J. Moore has hauled in more than 200 yards in back-to-back games. Against what had been one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the league (at least until last week), don't count him out for three in a row.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RB Devonta Freeman (out, foot), TE Austin Hooper (out, knee)

CAR injuries: CB Donte Jackson (questionable, hip)

ATL DFS chalk: Brian Hill (CAR 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)

CAR DFS chalk: Moore (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

ATL DFS tournament plays: Qadree Ollison / Kenjon Barner (see Hill)

CAR DFS tournament plays: Curtis Samuel (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Panthers DST (second in sack percentage, t-4th in takeaways)

Key stat: CAR is 26th in third-down offense at 32.7 percent; ATL is t-31st in third-down defense at 50.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 ATL, average score 22-22, average margin of victory 15 points. ATL has won three straight meetings.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 9-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Hill runs for 80 yards and a TD, while Ollison also scores his first career touchdown. Ryan throws for 280 yards and a score to Calvin Ridley. McCaffrey piles up his usual 150 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Allen throws for a career-high 320 yards and scores to Moore (who, yup, tops 100 yards) and Curtis Samuel. Panthers, 37-24
 

Dallas at Detroit (+3), 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Cowboys' inconsistency has allowed the Eagles to catch them in the NFC East, but really, it's the least they deserve for losing to the Jets. Ezekiel Elliott has been oddly sidelined in the passing game lately — after seeing at least six targets in three of four games before the team's bye, he's only gotten three in total in the two games since — but that might simply be the result of Dak Prescott having better options available downfield and not needing to check down. The fourth-year QB's career high is 23 passing TDs, but he already has 18 through nine games, and he's on pace to blow past his personal best in passing yards by more than a thousand. If the Cowboys do wind up in the playoffs, Prescott could well find himself in the MVP debate along with the likes of Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Matthew Stafford might have put himself on the fringes of that conversation as well with a big finish, but that doesn't seem to be happening now that he's been shut down due to broken bones in his back, the second straight season he's had back trouble. At 3-5-1, Detroit doesn't have a lot of incentive to rush him back into the lineup, and while the original estimate called for him to miss anywhere from one to three games (Sunday would be No. 2), the franchise might be better off letting the 31-year-old heal up as much as possible rather than try to drag the club to another mediocre finish. While Stafford's recuperating, Jeff Driskel is the nominal starter, but another weak effort on his part after last week's 5.8 YPA could mean the clock's run out, time's up, over — Blough! As in David Blough, the Lions' No. 3 quarterback. Not that Driskel will quit football to go back to his first love, rapping.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: LG Connor Williams (out, knee), RT La'el Collins (questionable, knee), S Jeff Heath (questionable, shoulder)

DET injuries: QB Stafford (out, back), RB Ty Johnson (questionable, concussion), RT Rick Wagner (out, concussion), S Tracy Walker (questionable, knee)

DAL DFS chalk: none

DET DFS chalk: none

DAL DFS tournament plays: Jason Witten / Blake Jarwin (DET 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

DET DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: DAL is first in third-down offense at 51.4 percent; DET is 27th in third-down defense at 44.8 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Elliott rumbles for 130 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 270 yards and three TDs, hitting Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Jarwin. J.D. McKissic leads the DET backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Driskel throws for 240 yards and gets picked off twice. Cowboys, 31-16
 

Jacksonville (+3) at Indianapolis, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Gardner Minshew Era has ended with a whimper, as Nick Foles takes back over under center coming out of the Jags' bye. In case you forgot, the veteran QB did this in Week 1 on the play he got hurt, and given that Jacksonville's OC, John DeFilippo, was the Eagles' QB coach when Foles won that Super Bowl MVP, there's plenty of reason for optimism for the offense down the stretch if he's 100 percent healthy. Now the Jags just have to hope Leonard Fournette finds the end zone again someday. The Colts dodged a bullet at QB when Jacoby Brissett's knee injury proved not to be too serious, and he'll be back in the lineup after missing only one start, a game during which Brian Hoyer looked like a 34-year-old scrub. Brissett probably won't have T.Y. Hilton back, though, and while Zach Pascal's had some moments, the team needs its No. 1 WR back if they're going to take a run at the crown in a crowded AFC South — the Colts are one game back of Houston, but last-place Jacksonville is only one game back of them.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: LT Cam Robinson (questionable, knee), C Brandon Linder (questionable, shoulder), DE Calais Campbell (questionable, back)

IND injuries: WR Hilton (out, calf), WR Parris Campbell (out, hand), CB Pierre Desir (doubtful, hamstring)

JAC DFS chalk: none

IND DFS chalk: none

JAC DFS tournament plays: none

IND DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: Fournette has three touchdowns in two career games against IND, more than he's scored against HOU and TEN combined

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 22-19 JAC, average margin of victory 15 points. Five of the last 10 meetings have been decided by a single score; the other five have been decided by 20 points or more.

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Fournette bangs out 70 yards and a TD. Foles throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Chris Conley and D.J. Chark. Marlon Mack gains 100 yards and a score. Brissett throws for 220 yards and a TD to Eric Ebron. Jaguars, 21-20
 

Buffalo at Miami (+6), 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bills may be 6-3, but five of their victories have come against clubs with two wins or fewer or the year, so they're not exactly a lock for a playoff spot. Devin Singletary failed to seize his opportunity to establish himself as the clear No. 1 RB in last week's loss to the Browns, but he still saw about twice as many touches as Frank Gore. If the rookie finally breaks out it would be a big boost to the team, because the defense no longer seems able to win games on its own. Through the first four games of the season, the unit gave up 280.8 yards a game and generated eight turnovers; in the five games since, it's coughed up 323 yards a game with only three takeaways. Almost 300 of those yards came from Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 7 but also two of the three TOs, which is pretty normal for the veteran bomb-thrower of a QB. Since then he's led Miami to two straight wins, but the quality of the opposition (the gangrenous Jets, and a Brian Hoyer-led Colts squad) has to be taken into account before giving the Dolphins too much credit for a big turnaround. The backfield remains a mess, the receiving corps lost promising rookie Preston Williams for the season, and the defense has given up at least 300 yards in every single game this year — yes, even against S-S-S-Sammy and the Jets.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: none

MIA injuries: RB Mark Walton (out, suspension), DE Taco Charlton (questionable, elbow), LB Raekwon McMillan (questionable, knee), S Reshad Jones (questionable, chest)

BUF DFS chalk: Singletary (MIA 30th in rushing yards allowed per game, 30th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Bills DST (MIA 31st in points per game, 30th in giveaways)

MIA DFS chalk: none

BUF DFS tournament plays: Josh Allen (MIA 29th in passing TDs allowed), John Brown (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIA DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: BUF is second in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 70.8 percent (17-for-24) of RZ possessions; MIA is 21st in red-zone defense at 57.6 percent (19-for-33)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BUF, average score 28-20 BUF, average margin of victory 12 points. BUF has won four of the last five meetings.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Singletary collects 90 combined yards and a score. Allen throws for less than 200 yards but hits Brown for a TD and runs one in of his own. Kalen Ballage leads the MIA backfield with 40 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Mike Gesicki. Bills, 24-13
 

Houston (+4) at Baltimore, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans remain atop the AFC South, having won four of five before last week's bye. The time off didn't completely clear up the team's injury issues, though, and Deshaun Watson could once again be forced to get the most out of a supporting cast that doesn't have a lot of oomph behind DeAndre Hopkins, especially if Will Fuller remains out. This clash with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could well end up weighing heavily in the MVP race, if one QB significantly outperforms the other. Jackson remains something of a work in progress as a passer — half his TDs through the air have come against the Dolphins and Bengals — but his historic pace on the ground forces defenses to pay enough attention to his scrambling that he has plenty of open targets downfield when he looks for them. The Ravens have won five consecutive games thanks to his legs, and without J.J. Watt to try and keep Jackson in the pocket, it could be a long afternoon for the Texans.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Fuller (questionable, hamstring), LT Laremy Tunsil (questionable, shoulder), CB Bradley Roby (questionable, hamstring)

BAL injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, ankle)

HOU DFS chalk: none

BAL DFS chalk: Lamar Jackson (HOU 29th in passing yards allowed per game)

HOU DFS tournament plays: none

BAL DFS tournament plays: Miles Boykin (HOU 28th in DVOA vs.WR2)

Key stat: BAL and HOU are tied for fifth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 65.7 percent (23-for-35) of RZ possessions, but HOU is 30th in red-zone defense (16-for-24, 66.7 percent) compared to BAL at seventh (15-for-31, 48.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, 13 mph wind, 5-20 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Carlos Hyde bangs out 60 yards, while Duke Johnson adds 60 yards. Watson throws for 270 yards and two more scores, hitting Kenny Stills and Darren Fells. Mark Ingram rumbles for 90 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Boykin while running for 80 yards and a score. Ravens, 27-17
 

Denver (+10.5) at Minnesota, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Broncos have separated themselves from the true dregs of the league, but they're still far from a contender as the offense continues to sputter along. Denver hasn't scored more than 24 points in any game this year, forcing the defense, and particularly the secondary, to do the heavy lifting. Second-round pick Drew Lock is inching closer to making his debut, but for now Brandon Allen will handle QB duties after looking at least competent against the Browns in Week 9, albeit on low volume. How he fares against a much tougher defense, in a game where the Broncos might fall behind early, remains to be seen. The Vikings remain hot on the heels of the Packers in the NFC North after last week's win in Dallas, and their 4-0 record at home certainly bodes well when it comes to the chances of them looking past this week's opponent. They're also 2-0 without Adam Thielen, who's headed for another absence, though they did lose the game in which the receiver made a brief cameo before aggravating his hamstring strain. As long as Dalvin Cook remains a stud, and Kirk Cousins steps up when needed, Minnesota can survive without its No. 1 WR.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: WR DaeSean Hamilton (questionable, knee), RT Ja'Wuan James (doubtful, knee)

MIN injuries: WR Thielen (out, hamstring), RG Josh Kline (out, concussion)

DEN DFS chalk: none

MIN DFS chalk: none

DEN DFS tournament plays: none

MIN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: DEN is 27th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 45.5 percent (10-for-22) on RZ possessions; MIN is sixth in red-zone defense at 48.0 percent (12-for-25)

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop

Royce Freeman leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards. Allen throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton. Cook gallops for 130 combined yards and a score. Cousins throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Stefon Diggs. Vikings, 20-10
 

N.Y. Jets (+1.5) at Washington, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Can I just ... not talk about this game? Would anyone mind? Cool. Thanks.

(Sigh.)

The Jets came to life last week — their 34 points were more than they managed against the Dolphins and Jaguars combined the previous two games — and their only two wins have come against NFC East opponents, so you have to think they'll show up against the worst team in that division. Then again, their defense remains bad, the entire left side of the offensive line is on the injured list, Sam Darnold barely looked adequate even in a win, and Le'Veon Bell isn't 100 percent healthy either. This isn't a squad you can trust to win two games in a row. Can you trust Washington to win one in a row, though? Dwayne Haskins achieved something of a moral victory by not throwing an interception against the Bills in Week 9, but 144 passing yards and a 6.5 YPA aren't NFL starter-caliber numbers. Washington also gets Derrius Guice back coming out of its bye, but interim coach Bill Callahan says he'll stick with Adrian Peterson as his starting RB, because why would a one-win team want to give the younger back a real look to determine if he'll be the answer next season or not? This is an offense that's scored in double digits only once in its last six games, so heaven forbid Callahan disrupt such an elite unit when it's firing on all cylinders.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: RB Bell (questionable, ribs), WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, knee), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), LG Alex Lewis (questionable, elbow), C Ryan Kalil (out, knee)

WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (out, toe), WR Paul Richardson (out, hamstring), TE Vernon Davis (out, concussion)

NYJ DFS chalk: none

WAS DFS chalk: none

NYJ DFS tournament plays: Robby Anderson (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Jets DST (WAS 32nd in points per game)

WAS DFS tournament plays: Terry McLaurin (NYJ 29th in DVOA against deep throws), Washington DST (NYJ 30th in points per game, 31st in sack percentage allowed)

Key stat: WAS (24.2 percent) and NYJ (23.7 percent) are 31st and 32nd in third-down offense, but NYJ is a dizzying 28th (45.0 percent) compared to WAS at t-31st (50.0 percent) in third-down defense

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, 13 mph wind, 10-15 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Bell starts and gains 70 combined yards. Darnold throws for 210 yards and a TD to Anderson. Peterson runs for 60 yards, while Guice adds 50 and a touchdown. Haskins throws for less than 200 yards and a score to McLaurin. Washington, 19-13
 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5.5), 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

As with any shocking upset, in the aftermath we're left to determine whether it says more about the team that won, the team that lost, or whether it was just one of those games. I'm inclined to believe it was the latter. The Saints looked like Super Bowl contenders prior to last week, and they'd amassed their seven victories against a fairly tough schedule — their "cheapest" win, by won-loss record, came against the 3-6 Bucs. The Falcons won in part by stuffing Alvin Kamara on the ground, though, and that's the one area where Tampa Bay's defense excels. It held Kamara to 62 rushing yards in Week 5, and if the Bucs can do that kind of job on him in this one, and the good Jameis Winston shows up, they have a chance. Winston's thrown multiple picks in three of the last four games, even as he's tossed more than 300 yards in all four, and the 6:9 TD:INT he's posted over that stretch isn't going to cut it.

The Skinny

NO injuries: LG Andrus Peat (out, forearm), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, hamstring)

TB injuries: none

NO DFS chalk: Drew Brees (TB 32nd in passing yards allowed per game, 30th in passing TDs allowed)

TB DFS chalk: none

NO DFS tournament plays: Ted Ginn (TB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 31st in DVOA against deep throws), Saints DST (TB 31st in giveaways)

TB DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: Winston's 57.2 percent completion rate, 7.0 YPA and 212.1 passing yards per game in his career against NO are his lowest marks against any team he's faced more than three times

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NO, average score 27-24 NO, average margin of victory eight points. Nine of the last 11 meetings have been decided by a single score, but the two exceptions came in 2017 (30-10 NO in Week 9) and 2018 (28-14 NO in Week 14).

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kamara comes away with 80 yards. Brees throws for 320 yards and two TDs, finding Michael Thomas and Jared Cook. Ronald Jones leads the TB backfield with 50 yards. Winston throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Chris Godwin but also tosses a pick-six to Demario Davis. Saints, 27-16
 

Arizona (+10.5) at San Francisco, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Cards have lost three straight to end their brief dalliance with respectability, including the first meeting with the Niners a couple weeks ago. The offense continues to perform pretty well under Kyler Murray, and Kliff Kingsbury has shown the ability to adapt his scheme to his personnel, but the defense keeps letting the team down — it's allowed almost 30 points a game during the losing streak, and on the year Arizona's 27th in points per game allowed (28.1) and 29th in yards per play allowed (6.1). San Francisco is stinging after its loss to Seattle last week, and a game it could easily have won — and arguably should have, if you (like me) think Raheem Mostert definitely got that first down in overtime — and will probably be looking for someone to take their frustrations out on, which is bad news for the Cards. Any retribution might have to come from their defense, though, as the offense is a triage ward. Leaning on Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman isn't the worst thing, though — it's how they got on top of the NFC West in the first place, even if that lead over the Seahawks is down to half a game.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RT Justin Murray (questionable, knee), LB Terrell Suggs (questionable, hamstring)

SF injuries: RB Matt Breida (doubtful, ankle), RB Mostert (questionable, knee), WR Emmanuel Sanders (questionable, ribs), WR Dante Pettis (questionable, back), TE George Kittle (doubtful, knee), LT Joe Staley (out, finger), K Robbie Gould (doubtful, quad)

ARI DFS chalk: none

SF DFS chalk: Tevin Coleman (ARI 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), 49ers DST (second in points allowed per game, first in sack percentage, third in takeaways)

ARI DFS tournament plays: none

SF DFS tournament plays: Jimmy Garoppolo (ARI 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Deebo Samuel (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Kendrick Bourne (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Ross Dwelley (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: ARI is 31st in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 34.3 percent (12-for-35) of RZ possessions; SF is first in red-zone defense at 36.8 percent (7-for-19)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 ARI, average score 25-16, average margin of victory nine points. ARI had won eight straight meetings prior to SF's 28-25 win in Week 9. Four of the last meetings have been decided by a field goal.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kenyan Drake leads the ARI backfield with 70 combined yards, while David Johnson adds 40. Murray throws for 220 yards and a TD to Andy Isabella. Coleman dashes for 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Dwelley, while Dee Ford returns a fumble to the house. 49ers, 27-13
 

Cincinnati (+10.5) at Oakland, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

With no undefeated teams left in the NFL, there's only one zero left to focus on in the standings, and that belongs to the Bengals. The 2017 Browns and the 2008 Lions are the only teams to go 0-16, but Cincy seems ideally constructed to take a run at joining that club. Unremarkable fourth-round rookie at QB in Ryan Finley? Check. A injured star in A.J. Green who seems to be in no hurry to get back into the lineup? Check. An offensive line that can't block, and a defense that can't get to the quarterback or generate turnovers? Check and check. They might just have enough talent to steal a win at some point, though, especially with a second-half schedule that includes the Jets, Dolphins and two games with the erratic Browns. Don't rule out the 5-4 Raiders as a potential victim, either. After winning two straight and closing on the Chiefs in the AFC West, they might be feeling sassy enough to look past this one and blow it. Another big game from Josh Jacobs, who's hit for at least 100 scrimmage yards in five of the last six games while scoring five TDs during that stretch, would go a long way toward making sure that doesn't happen.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR A.J. Green (out, ankle), RT Bobby Hart (questionable, shoulder), DT Geno Atkins (questionable, ankle)

OAK injuries: RT Trent Brown (questionable, knee), LV Vontaze Burfict (out, suspension)

CIN DFS chalk: none

OAK DFS chalk: Jacobs (CIN 31st in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tyrell Williams (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws), Darren Waller (CIN 31st in DVOA vs.TE)

CIN DFS tournament plays: Finley (OAK 30th in passing yards allowed per game, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Auden Tate (OAK 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

OAK DFS tournament plays: Jalen Richard (see Jacobs), Raiders DST (CIN 29th in points per game, 29th in giveaways)

Key stat: OAK is fourth in third-down offense at 47.7 percent; CIN is t-24th in third-down defense at 44.3 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Joe Mixon picks up 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Finley throws for less than 200 yards, takes a safety and tosses a pick-six to Trayvon Mullen. Jacobs gallops for 140 combined yards and a TD. Derek Carr throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Waller. Raiders, 29-10
 

New England at Philadelphia (+3.5), 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

This is weird — it's mid-November, and the Patriots haven't already clinched the AFC East title. They are two games up on the Bills and are probably going to cruise to consecutive division crown No. 12, but it's not impossible that the Week 16 meeting between the rivals matters for more than a potential wild-card spot for Buffalo, especially if New England can't take care of business here. The Pats come out of their bye mostly healthy, at least on offense, and while their soft first-half schedule allowed them to rack up some gaudy defensive stats, it's the consistency of Tom Brady and the offense that really makes them dangerous — they're scored less than 27 points only twice in nine games (in the Week 9 loss to Baltimore and hmm, against Buffalo in Week 4.) They've been like a volume striker in boxing or MMA. Rather than looking for one big knockout blow, they just keep up a steady barrage of smaller shots that wears the opposition down and eventually causes them collapse. If first-round pick N'Keal Harry can give Brady the knockout potential he thought he might get from Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon in addition to churning real estate with Julian Edelman, James White, Mohamed Sanu etc. ... eep. The Eagles find themselves in the NFC East hunt at 5-4, though their Week 7 loss to the Cowboys still puts them at a disadvantage for now. The team can't seem to build any momentum, alternating pairs of wins with consecutive losses, and the addition of Jay Ajayi to the backfield (again) doesn't seem like it's going to move the needle much. Shocker in Lambeau aside, the pattern looks less like random chance when you compare the QB situations and passing games of the teams they beat (WAS, NYJ, BUF, CHI) to the teams that beat them (ATL, DET, MIN, DAL). Their best chance of an upset against Brady might come if the wind and weather are factors, neutralizing any aerial attacks and forcing both teams to keep the ball on the ground.

The Skinny

NE injuries: S Patrick Chung (questionable, heel)

PHI injuries: RB Jordan Howard (questionable, shoulder), WR Alshon Jeffery (out, ankle), LB Nigel Bradham (out, ankle)

NE DFS chalk: none

PHI DFS chalk: none

NE DFS tournament plays: Patriots DST (first in points allowed per game, third in sack percentage, first in takeaways)

PHI DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: PHI is third in third-down offense at 48.4 percent; NE is first in third-down defense at 18.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 14-15 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Sony Michel Leads the NE backfield with 70 yards and a TD, while White adds 50 combined yards. Brady throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Sanu and Edelman. Miles Sanders tops the PHI backfield with 80 yards and a receiving score, while Carson Wentz throws for 250 yards and a second TD to Zach Ertz. Patriots, 27-17

Chicago (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Bears finally found a team they could beat last week, though it seems likely the result would have been different had Matthew Stafford been healthy. Chicago's offense remains a sore spot, and both times it's scored more than 21 points, it needed a defensive or special teams TD to help get it there. Things aren't looking up, either — David Montgomery suffered an ankle sprain just as it was looking like he might become the focal point of the attack, and if he can't go Sunday night, yards may have to come from the rare occasions Mitchell Trubisky gets the ball close enough to Allen Robinson that the former Jag can make a play. The Rams aren't doing much better, though. They've scored a combined 19 points in their last two losses, and while getting stuffed by the Niners is one thing, last week's loss in Pittsburgh is a lot tougher to swallow. In fact, over their last six games, the only teams the Rams have been able to beat are the Falcons and Bengals. Jared Goff has a 7:6 TD:INT over that stretch, and with Brandin Cooks sidelined and all his tight ends banged up, it could be tough for him to turn things around against a Chicago defense that's still stingy through the air, even if Khalil Mack has been ominously quiet lately.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB David Montgomery (questionable, ankle), TE Trey Burton (out, calf), LB Danny Trevathan (out, elbow)

LAR injuries: WR Cooks (out, concussion), TE Gerald Everett (questionable, wrist), TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, knee), RT Rob Havenstein (out, knee)

CHI DFS chalk: none

LAR DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS tournament plays: none

LAR DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: CHI is 10th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 60.9 percent (14-for-23) of RZ possessions; LAR are 18th in red-zone defense (56.7 percent)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Montgomery plays and gains 50 yards and a TD. Trubisky throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Robinson for a score. Todd Gurley picks up 60 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 240 yards and a TD to Robert Woods. Mack returns a Malcolm Brown fumble for a score in the fourth quarter for what proves to be the winning points. Bears, 21-20
 

Pittsburgh (+3) at Cleveland, 41.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Steelers have won four consecutive games, and while most are trying to decide if Christian McCaffrey belongs in the MVP conversation with all the QBs, I'm wondering if Minkah Fitzpatrick deserves to be in the mix too. Pittsburgh is 5-2 since acquiring him in Miami's fire sale, and in those seven games he has five INTs, a forces fumble, a fumble recovery (not the same fumble) and two TD returns on those turnovers. Oh, and on the rare occasions he does get tested in coverage, Fitzpatrick's allowed a QB rating of 17.5. That's not a typo. The entire defense has been outstanding with him patrolling the secondary, giving up 17.1 points a game, and it's allowed the team to stay in the playoff picture despite lackluster QB play that has put a damper on JuJu Smith-Schuster's production, and a top backfield duo that hasn't been healthy at the same time since at least Week 5. James Conner and Jaylen Samuels both appear 100 percent healthy now, which should take some pressure off Mason Rudolph. The Browns barely squeaked out their third win last week, but Baker Mayfield posted his best performance of the season in it, and any hint of momentum on his part is a plus. The fact that his best game featured 238 passing yards and a 6.3 YPA is telling, though. Nick Chubb saw his usual workload, and Kareem Hunt found his touches at the margins in his 2019 debut, which is good news for Chubb at least. Cleveland and Pittsburgh face each other twice in the next three weeks, and this isn't the most friendly rivalry anyway, so don't be surprised if this one gets a little, uhh, spirited.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: CB Joe Haden (questionable, illness)

CLE injuries: TE Ricky Seals-Jones (questionable, knee), DE Olivier Vernon (out, knee)

PIT DFS chalk: Steelers DST (PIT fourth in sack percentage, second in takeaways, CLE t-27th in giveaways)

CLE DFS chalk: none

PIT DFS tournament plays: Conner (CLE 28th in YPC allowed)

CLE DFS tournament plays: Rashard Higgins (PIT 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CLE is 26th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 46.7 percent (14-for-30) of RZ possessions; PIT is t-9th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (14-for-28)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-1-1 PIT, average score 25-19 PIT, average margin of victory 10 points. In case you think that record got padded during the Hue Jackson years, PIT is 33-4-1 in this rivalry in the 2000s.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Conner picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Rudolph throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Diontae Johnson for a score. Chubb bangs out 90 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 50 yards. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and gets picked off twice, including a pick-six to Steven Nelson. Steelers, 24-13

Last week's record: 5-8, 7-5-1 ATS, 8-5 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 88-59-1, 69-77-2 ATS, 73-70-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 724-443-5, 539-589-44 ATS, 439-459-18 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)