NFL Game Previews: Colts-Saints Matchup

Indianapolis (+9) at New Orleans, 46.0 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

When your only win over the last six weeks came against the Jaguars, you know things are going badly. The Colts' collapse has all but eliminated them from the playoffs, and the fact that T.Y. Hilton only played 25 snaps in those six games looms large. With Andrew Luck gone and Marlon Mack less than 100 percent, what looked over the summer like it might be a dangerous set of triplets instead went AWOL when it mattered most. The defense has also been struggling, making the lack of an effective big-play threat on offense even more glaring. They'll head to the Big Easy to take on a team that will probably be looking for someone to take their frustrations out on after they had a chance to grab a tight hold of the No. 1 seed in the NFC, only to see it slip through their fingers despite scoring 46 points. Alvin Kamara's disappearing act remains a mystery, but with Drew Brees posting a 12:1 TD:INT over the last four games, the Saints have been able to survive both Kamara's slump and a rash of injuries on defense and along the offensive line. They'll probably need Kamara to wake up if they're going to make a deep playoff run, however.

The Skinny

IND injuries: WR Hilton (questionable, calf), CB Pierre Desir (questionable, groin), CB Kenny Moore II (questionable ankle)

NO injuries: TE Jared Cook (questionable, concussion), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, ankle), LG Andrus Peat (questionable, forearm), DE Cameron Jordan (questionable, abdomen), LB Kiko Alonso (questionable, thigh), S Vonn Bell (questionable, knee)

IND DFS targets: Zach Pascal (NO 23rd in DVOA against deep throws)

NO DFS targets: Michael Thomas (IND 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Tre'Quan Smith (IND 26th in DVOA vs. WR3), Ted Ginn (IND 27th in DVOA against deep throws)

IND DFS fades: Mack (NO fifth in rushing yards allowed per game)

NO DFS fades: Kamara (IND fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: NO is 11th in third-down offense at 42.5 percent; IND is 22nd in third-down defense at 41.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Mack runs for 60 yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for 260 yards and TDs to Pascal and Jack Doyle. Kamara manages only 50 yards, but Latavius Murray picks up 70 yards and a score. Brees throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Thomas (who tops 100 yards) twice and Ginn once. Saints, 31-17

New England at Cincinnati (+9), 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

I keep waiting for the Patriots to slip into playoff mode and start looking like the Death Star coming around Yavin 4's moon, but instead they've looked more like this sad old wreck lately. Last week's loss to Kansas City puts New England in the precarious position of probably needing to win out to hang onto a first-round bye — if the Chiefs catch them in the standings, the Pats will be stuck having to play in a wild-card game rather than skipping directly to the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time since 2009. How embarrassing that would be! The offense hasn't scored more than 22 points since Week 8, which is a problem since the defense has allowed more than that three times in those five games now that it's had to face real opponents. Fortunately, none of that should apply to this matchup. The Bengals are headed straight for the top of the 2020 draft, which they'll probably waste on an average college QB or something silly like that. At least Browns fans would get some schadenfreude out of it if they do. In the meantime, Andy Dalton remains under center, and he's managed to complete 60 percent of his passes in only four of his 10 starts, which is why Cincy will be hunting for a quarterback in the draft in the first place.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (questionable, shoulder), WR Mohamed Sanu (questionable, ankle), C Ted Karras (questionable, knee), CB Jason McCourty (questionable, groin)

CIN injuries: WR A.J. Green (out, ankle)

NE DFS chalk: Edelman (CIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Patriots DST (CIN 31st in points per game, NE first in points per game allowed, second in takeaways)

CIN DFS chalk: none

NE DFS tournament plays: Tom Brady (CIN 31st in YPA allowed), James White / Rex Burkhead / Sony Michel (CIN 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CIN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: CIN is 31st in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 36.8 percent (14-for-38) of RZ possessions; NE is eighth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (10-for-20) but first in total RZ possessions allowed

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop 

The NE backfield dominates, as White leads the charge with 100 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Burkhead adds 70 combined yards and Michel bangs out 60 and a TD. Brasy throws for 220 yards and a second touchdown to Edelman. Joe Mixon picks up 50 yards. Dalton throws for 240 yards and a TD to Tyler Eifert but gets picked off twice. Patriots, 34-13
 

Tampa Bay at Detroit (+3.5), 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Buccaneers' 2019 season continues to be sponsored by Carnival Cruises, as in every game is a carnival. They're third in points per game (29.1) and 31st in points allowed per game (29.3), leaving them tantalizingly close to a 30-30 campaign. Jameis Winston may have lost Mike Evans for the rest of the year but still has Chris Godwin and a host of other talented targets (including, gulp, O.J. Howard) who he could always look for once in a while too. This is the perfect week to test out some new connections too, as the Lions' secondary remains one of the primary causes of their three-win season. A few recent games against underpowered passing games (two against Chicago, one against Washington) have allowed them to climb all the way up to 25th in overall passing DVOA, but in the middle of that run Dak Prescott lit them up for 444 yards and three TDs. Winston, of course, is capable of keeping any opponent in the game with picks, but Matthew Stafford isn't around to take advantage of any turnovers, and David Blough doesn't seem like a guy who can win a shootout, especially behind a banged-up offensive line.

The Skinny

TB injuries: QB Winston (questionable, thumb), WR Evans (out, hamstring), LT Donovan Smith (doubtful, knee), RG Alex Cappa (questionable, elbow)

DET injuries: QB Stafford (out, back), RB Bo Scarbrough (questionable, ribs), LG Joe Dahl (out, back), RT Rick Wagner (out, knee), LB Jarrad Davis (out, ankle)

TB DFS chalk: Winston (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed)

DET DFS chalk: none

TB DFS tournament plays: Dare Ogunbowale (DET 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS tournament plays: Blough (TB 31st in passing yards per game allowed), Kenny Golladay (TB 30th in DVOA against deep throws), Lions DST (TB 32nd in giveaways)

Key stat: TB is eighth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 63.3 percent (31-for-49) of RZ possessions; DET is 29th in red-zone defense at 61.2 percent (30-for-49)

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Ronald Jones leads the TB backfield with 70 yards. Winston throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Howard, Ogunbowale and Justin Watson, but he also gets picked off twice. Ty Johnson manages to eke out 50 yards, while J.D. McKissic runs for a score. Blough throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns to Golladay and Danny Amendola. Bucs, 29-24
 

Houston (+3) at Tennessee, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

How's this for drama? The Texans and Titans are tied atop the AFC South at 8-5, and play each other twice in the next three weeks. In between, Houston plays Tampa while Tennessee gets New Orleans, and Deshaun Watson's crew holds the tiebreaker edge with a better divisional record, so the Titans probably can't afford a split. The two teams come into this one on very different trajectories, though. Houston's shocking loss last week to Denver in a game that turned out to be ... (puts on sunglasses) no Lock puts them in this dilemma in the first place, and it's maybe not a coincidence that they've dropped the last two games Will Fuller has missed — without him to stretch the field and put the defense on its heels, the Texans' passing game has struggled. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry continues to be ridiculous. He's topped 100 yards in four consecutive games, amassing 599 rushing yards and seven TDs over that stretch, and he's done it while nursing a hamstring injury. I mean, come on. That's some Earl Campbell-Bo Jackson level legendary nonsense right there. The fact that defense can't slow him even while stacking the box has made life very easy for Ryan Tannehill. In his seven starts, he's completed 72.7 percent of his passes with a 15:4 TD:INT and 9.9 YPA. I mean, come on. Something's going to derail this juggernaut eventually — maybe Henry's health gets worse, maybe defenses decide to worry more about Tannehill for a change — but until someone cracks the code, this might be the most dangerous team in football.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Fuller (questionable, hamstring)

TEN injuries: RB Henry (questionable, hamstring), WR Adam Humphries (out, ankle), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, foot)

HOU DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS chalk: none

HOU DFS tournament plays: Keke Coutee (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Texans DST (TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)

TEN DFS tournament plays: Henry (HOU 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: TEN is 19th in third-down offense at 36.8 percent; HOU is 32nd in third-down defense at 48.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 HOU, average score 29-17 HOU, average margin of victory 17 points. Six of HOU's seven wins have been by two scores or more; TEN's three victories have been by a combined 21 points.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Carlos Hyde picks up 70 yards, while Duke Johnson adds 60 combined yards. Watson throws for 240 yards and two TDs to DeAndre Hopkins. Henry bashes out 90 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill throws for 260 yards and two scores, hitting Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. Titans, 27-17
 

Denver (+9.5) at Kansas City, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Drew Lock hasn't yet proven he's the answer for Denver under center, but last week's effort certainly bought him plenty of goodwill. The Broncos have now quashed any flickering playoff hopes the Chargers might have had and at least temporarily derailed the Texans' march to the postseason in consecutive weeks, and while there's nothing they can do to stop the Chiefs from playing in January, an upset here would deal a huge blow to their division rival's chances of earning a first-round bye. Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant appear to be key pieces in a potentially high-powered passing game, and assuming the injury-riddled defense is a lot healthier, they seem positioned to be one of 2020's biggest surprises. Kansas City may be cruising to the AFC title, but their chances of making a deep playoff run would seem a lot better if Patrick Mahomes would wake up. Over the last three games, he's completed less than 60 percent of his passes with a 3:2 TD:INT and 6.3 YPA. Even Mitchell Trubisky is like, whoa, those are bad numbers. You can make excuses for all three weak performances — bad field conditions in Mexico City, high winds against Oakland, tough matchup against New England — and he might get another good excuse Sunday, but the 2018 version of Mahomes still rang up 300 yards and multiple TDs on his "off" weeks. It's fair to wonder if his ankle is 100 percent healthy, and to wonder if the team can win consistently if it isn't.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: TE Fant (questionable, foot), RG Ronald Leary (out, concussion), RT Ja'Wuan James (out. knee)

KC injuries: RB Damien Williams (questionable, ribs), DE Frank Clark (questionable, illness)

DEN DFS chalk: none

KC DFS chalk: none

DEN DFS tournament plays: Phillip Lindsay (KC 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing DVOA), Tim Patrick (KC 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

KC DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: DEN is 30th in third-down offense at 31.1 percent; KC is ninth in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 KC, average score 27-21 KC, average margin of victory 11 points. KC has won eight straight meetings after losing seven straight during the Peyton Manning era.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 20s, 10-11 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of snow, possibility of fog

The Scoop

Lindsay gains 90 yards and a TD. Lock throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Patrick. Williams picks up 60 yards, but Darwin Thompson vultures a score. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and two TDs to Tyreek Hill. Chiefs, 24-23
 

Miami (+3.5) at N.Y. Giants, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Dolphins may not be an utter doormat any longer, but they've still lost three of their last four, and last week's red-zone disaster was a painful reminder of why Ryan Fitzpatrick is on his eighth organization. He could also be without his one reliable target in DeVante Parker, with the rest of his WR corps made up of mainly of other team's castoffs. Isaiah Ford, a seventh-round pick in 2017, did make a splash when he finally got his chance, but it  took injuries to six other guys before he got that opportunity, which isn't exactly a glowing recommendation from the coaching staff. By contrast, Eli Manning could be playing his final home game for the only team he's ever known, even if his recent numbers make you wonder why the Giants didn't move on a while ago. He had a decent first half last week and a terrible second half, and while the latter is more in keeping with where he is in his career, the Dolphins have the kind of defense that could give him one last hurrah in MetLife Stadium. They could also help Saquon Barkley snap out of his funk. He hasn't found the end zone since Week 8, and hasn't rushed for 100 yards since Week 2.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: WR Parker (questionable, concussion), WR Albert Wilson (questionable, concussion) 

NYG injuries: QB Daniel Jones (out, ankle), TE Evan Engram (out, foot), RG Kevin Zeitler (out, ankle)

MIA DFS chalk: Parker (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

NYG DFS chalk: Saquon Barkley (MIA t-30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS tournament plays: Fitzpatrick (NYG 29th in YPA allowed), Ford (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Dolphins DST (NYG 31st in giveaways)

NYG DFS tournament plays: Manning (MIA 31st in passing TDs allowed), Sterling Shepard (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Darius Slayton (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYG are t-20th in third-down offense at 35.7 percent; MIA is 28th in third-down defense at 44.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 14-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Patrick Laird leads the MIA backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Fitzpatrick throws for 240 yards and a TD to Allen Hurns. Barkley erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and two scores. Manning throws for 220 yards. Giants, 20-14

Philadelphia at Washington (+4.5), 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The NFC East is just sad at this point. The Eagles needed overtime to put together a comeback win over Eli Manning, and they've basically fallen apart since their Week 10 bye. The only thing keeping them in the hunt for the division crown is that the Cowboys have fallen apart at the same time. Think about this — Washington is 3-10 and eliminated from postseason contention, but whoever ends up winning isn't yet guaranteed to have more wins than them (Dallas and Philly, in theory, could both go 0-2-1 down the stretch and tie each other while Washington goes 3-0, giving the Cowboys the NFC East title at 6-9-1 on a tiebreaker). The Eagles' problem lately has been the offense — they've allowed 17 points or less in five of the last six games, which you'd think would be good enough for better than a 3-3 record. Over that stretch, Carson Wentz has a 9:3 TD:INT and 6.2 YPA, and he's basically run out of healthy wide receivers — he could go into this one with rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who has all of eight catches this year, at the top of the depth chart. Fortunately, he's facing the right team if he's going to lean even more heavily than usual on his tight ends, as well as the right QB to keep that run of good defensive performances going. Dwayne Haskins has yet to top a 6.5 YPA in his five starts, and the one game in which the team scored more than 20 points, it was the backfield doing all the heavy lifting. With Derrius Guice back on injured reserve, that's not likely to happen again.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Jordan Howard (questionable, shoulder), WR Alshon Jeffery (IR, foot), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, knee), RT Lane Johnson (out, ankle)

WAS injuries: RB Guice (IR, knee), RG Brandon Scherff (questionable, elbow), LB Ryan Kerrigan (IR, calf), CB Josh Norman (questionable, illness)

PHI DFS chalk: Zach Ertz (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Eagles DST (WAS 32nd in points per game, 31st in sack percentage allowed)

WAS DFS chalk: none

PHI DFS tournament plays: Greg Ward (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Dallas Goedert (see Ertz)

WAS DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: WAS is 32nd in third-down offense at 27.3 percent; PHI is eighth in third-down defense at 35.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 PHI, average score 27-23 PHI, average margin of victory nine points. PHI has won five straight meetings by an average score of 30-16, including a 32-27 win in Week 1.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 10-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Miles Sanders leads the PHI backfield with 90 yards and a TD. Wentz throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Ertz and Goedert. Adrian Peterson gains 70 yards. Haskins throws for less than 200 yards but finds Terry McLaurin for a score. Eagles, 24-10
 

Seattle at Carolina (+6), 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's loss made things pretty simple for the Seahawks. If they can keep pace with the Niners over the next two games, they'll host a de facto NFC West title game in Week 17 that could also be for the top seed in the conference. If they stumble again and San Francisco pulls two games ahead between now and then, well, they'll have to go the wild-card route. Russell Wilson has pumpkined something fierce over the last month or so — he topped a YPA of 8.0 in eight of first nine games, tossing only one total INT in that time, but hasn't managed it once in his last four games while throwing a pick in each — but Seattle was able to keep winning until running into a resurgent Rams squad. A return to health by Tyler Lockett would certainly help, but so might facing an opponent that's lost five consecutive games. While Kyle Allen has been exposed during that stretch — 7:8 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA in those five losses — it's really been the front seven that deserves the most responsibility for this season slipping away. Since the Panthers' Week 7 bye, the defense has been gashed for 100-plus rushing yards and/or multiple TDs by Tevin Coleman, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones and Derrius Guice. The only backfield that had trouble tearing them up was a banged-up Falcons squad; with Devonta Freeman back last week, he and Brian Hill combined for 146 rushing yards and two scores. Christian McCaffrey has racked up 100 or more scrimmage yards in all seven of those games, totaling 1,023 yards and seven touchdowns over that stretch, but his huge campaign has mostly gone to waste.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (out, knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney (out, groin), DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, neck)

CAR injuries: TE Greg Olsen (out, concussion), LT Greg Little (out, ankle), LB Mario Addison (questionable, chest)

SEA DFS chalk: Chris Carson (CAR 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)

CAR DFS chalk: McCaffrey (SEA t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)

SEA DFS tournament plays: Seahawks DST (CAR 30th in giveaways, SEA third in takeaways)

CAR DFS tournament plays: Panthers DST (CAR third in sack percentage)

Key stat: SEA is ninth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 61.2 percent (30-for-49) of RZ possessions; CAR is 26th in red-zone defense at 60.8 percent (31-for-51)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind. zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Carson joins the club above with 120 yards and two scores. Wilson throws for 290 yards and TDs to DK Metcalf and Jacob Hollister. McCaffrey responds with 130 combined yards and two touchdowns of his own, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 250 yards and a second TD to D.J. Moore. Seahawks, 34-24
 

Chicago (+4.5) at Green Bay, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The tundra is set to be especially frozen at Lambeau for this one, so this could be a good old fashioned smashmouth NFC North affair as numb fingers make it tougher to throw or catch a ball. The Bears are still clinging to playoff contention — they're two games back of the second wild-card spot, but the Rams sit between them and the Vikings — thanks to a three-game winning streak, but a closing schedule that features the Packers, Chiefs and Vikes does them no favors. Mitchell Trubisky has somewhat come alive with back-to-back games where he threw three TDs and completed better than 70 percent of his passes, but he's also tossed five INTs over the last four contests. Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and occasionally Tarik Cohen make for a very narrow route tree, but the defense could finally get Akiem Hicks back this week to help take some pressure off a gutted linebacking corps. They could need him with Aaron Jones coming off his fourth game this season with 150-plus scrimmage yards — that ties him for second in the league with Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry, behind only Christian McCaffrey's seven such performances. The Packers have won three of their last four to stay on top in the division, and while the Bears would probably like nothing more than to play spoiler, their recent track record in this rivalry isn't encouraging.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: WR Taylor Gabriel (out, concussion), RT Bobby Massie (out, ankle), LB Roquan Smith (IR, pectoral), LB Danny Trevathan (out, elbow)

GB injuries: TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, wrist), CB Kevin King (questionable, shoulder)

CHI DFS chalk: none

GB DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS tournament plays: none

GB DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: GB is t-3rd in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 68.2 percent (30-for-44) on RZ possessions; CHI is 16th in red-zone defense at 55.8 percent (24-for-43)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 GB, average score 27-17 GB, average margin of victory 12 points. The last four games have been decided by a single score.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-teens, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop

David Montgomery bangs out 60 yards and a TD. Trubisky throws for less than 200 yards. Jones picks up 80 yards and a score, while Jamaal Williams adds 50 yards. Aaron Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Davante Adams. Packers, 20-10
 

Minnesota at L.A. Chargers (+2.5), 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Vikings will need the Packers to stumble if they're going to win the NFC North — even if they split the season series by winning in Week 16, Minnesota has an extra loss within the division — and they also have to worry about the Rams trying to steal away their wild-card spot, so they can ill afford a letdown here. Adam Thielen's return should give the team a lift, but the defense will need to find a way to solve its road blues. Over its last four contests away from U.S. Bank Stadium, they've given up almost 30 points and 425 total yards a game. The Chargers have nothing left to play for but... I was going to say 'pride', but that's a tough argument to make when they're 0-4 against the rest of the AFC West. Beating up on a Jaguars outfit that's packed it in for the year doesn't really prove much, but it at least gives some momentum to an offense that's had trouble staying in gear. It's a shame too, because the Bolts' defense has been a model of consistency. The unit hasn't allowed more than 27 points in a game all year – not even the Patriots can make that claim – and they've only once surrendered more than 400 total yards, and then only barely (403 to the Titans in Week 7). A little better effort from Philip Rivers and company, and they'd be in the thick of the playoff chase.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Alexander Mattison (out, ankle), WR Bisi Johnson (questionable, quad), CB Xavier Rhodes (questionable, ankle)

LAC injuries: none

MIN DFS chalk: none

LAC DFS chalk: none

MIN DFS tournament plays: none

LAC DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: LAC are 25th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 50.0 percent (22-for-44) of RZ possessions; MIN is fourth in red-zone defense at 47.4 percent (18-for-38)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 13 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Dalvin Cook bangs out 80 yards and a TD. Kirk Cousins throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Melvin Gordon gains 60 yards, while Austin Ekeler adds 60 combined yards. Rivers throws for 250 yards and a score to Keenan Allen. Vikings, 24-13
 

Jacksonville (+6.5) at Oakland, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Remember how incredibly bad the Dolphins were at the beginning of the year? The Jags must have thought it was a competition. They've lost five straight games by an average score of 35-11, and they haven't been getting blown out by the league's elite either — the stretch includes a 33-13 loss to the Colts and last week's 45-10 collapse against the Chargers. Switching back to Gardner Minshew at quarterback hasn't made a difference, because this is a team-wide issue, and it's kind of amazing that Doug Marrone hasn't been sacked yet. The Raiders have lost three straight themselves, but you have to think they'll be a little sharper in their final home game in Oakland before the move to Vegas (until they come slinking back in 12 years or so). They're also still technically alive in the wild-card hunt, for what that's worth. Josh Jacobs is banged up, Derek Carr has a 3:3 TD:INT over the losing streak, and the secondary has more guys on the injury report or IR than on the active roster, so emotion is pretty much all they have to keep them going, but against this opponent? That's probably enough.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR DJ Chark Jr. (out, ankle)

OAK injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, shoulder), WR Hunter Renfrow (out, ribs), RT Trent Brown (questionable, pectoral)

JAC DFS chalk: Chris Conley (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2, OAK 29th in DVOA against deep throws)

OAK DFS chalk: Jacobs (JAC 31st in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in rushing DVOA)

JAC DFS tournament plays: Minshew (OAK 32nd in YPA allowed, 30th in passing TDs allowed), Leonard Fournette (OAK 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

OAK DFS tournament plays: DeAndre Washington (see Jacobs)

Key stat: OAK is seventh in third-down offense at 45.0 percent; JAC is 23rd in third-down defense at 41.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Fournette picks up 90 combined yards. Minshew throws for 280 yards and TDs to Conley and Dede Westbrook. Jacobs plays and gains 70 yards and a score, while Washington adds 50 yards. Carr throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Darren Waller and Jalen Richard. Raiders, 27-23
 

Cleveland at Arizona (+2.5), 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Once their season was effectively over and the pressure was off, the Browns started playing decent football and have now won four of their last five, including victories over playoff-caliber squads in the Bills and Steelers (although they lost the rematch in Pittsburgh). Baker Mayfield still hasn't looked like a franchise QB, but a 8:4 TD:INT is a big improvement over the 7:12 mark he produced in the first half. The revelation that Odell Beckham has been playing hurt all year does explain some things, and Mayfield's turnaround roughly coincides with him sending more targets Jarvis Landry's way rather than trying to force the ball to OBJ. Kareen Hunt's arrival has also given the offense an extra dimension without significantly cutting into Nick Chubb's production. That's a lot of weapons to take into a game against arguably the worst pass defense in the league. Since Week 6, the only two quarterbacks the Cards have held under 300 passing yards have been rookies Daniel Jones and Devlin Hodges, with the former being the last game the team managed to win. Kyler Murray is fading under the weight of carrying the offense, and last week's surprise David Johnson sighting doesn't really change the equation much.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: C J.C. Tretter (questionable, knee), RT Chris Hubbard (questionable, knee), DE Myles Garrett (out, suspension), DE Olivier Vernon (out, knee)

ARI injuries: WR Andy Isabella (questionable, shoulder), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, back)

CLE DFS chalk: Mayfield (ARI 30th in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Landry (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ARI DFS chalk: none

CLE DFS tournament plays: Hunt (ARI 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), KhaDarel Hodge (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), David Njoku (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: ARI is 24th in third-down offense at 34.8 percent; CLE is third in third-down defense at 33.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Chubb runs for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 70 scrimmage yards. Mayfield throws for 310 yards and TDs to Landry and Njoku. Kenyan Drake leads the ARI backfield with 70 yards and a score. Murray throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Christian Kirk while running in a score of his own. Browns, 30-24
 

L.A. Rams at Dallas (+1), 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Rams finally woken up, winning three of their last four, but they may have waited too late to get rolling — they're a game back of the Vikings for the second NFC wild-card berth, although the Rams have the tiebreaker edge based on common opponents. They've piled up 62 points and over 1,000 yards of offense over the last two weeks, and Jared Goff has completed over 70 percent of his passes over the last three — although his 4:4 TD:INT in that time is less thrilling. Todd Gurley's also been occasionally unleashed, racking up 453 scrimmage yards and three TDs since a Week 9 bye. That's a handful for a Dallas team that seems to be more focused on getting Jason Garrett fired than winning the NFC East. The Cowboys have lost three straight and four of five, with every facet of the team regressing, even if Dak Prescott has kept his pursuit of the league passing yards title (and his fantasy value) afloat with some garbage-time production. There's still more than enough talent on the roster to turn things around over the last three games and not only make the playoffs but seems at least a little threatening to whoever they face, but at the moment all they are is the best sub-.500 team in the league.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: TE Gerald Everett (out, knee), RT Rob Havenstein (doubtful, knee)

DAL injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (out, neck)

LAR DFS chalk: none

DAL DFS chalk: none

LAR DFS tournament plays: none

DAL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: DAL is first in third-down offense at 48.1 percent; LAR are 16th in third-down defense at 37.8 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop

Gurley picks up 70 combined yards. Goff throws for 280 yards and TDs to Tyler Higbee and Cooper Kupp. Ezekiel Elliott grabs 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Prescott throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb. Cowboys, 27-20
 

Atlanta (+11) at San Francisco, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It's possible that the Falcons' awful luck with injuries gives Dan Quinn enough of an excuse to save his job, which would be truly bad luck for the franchise. Matt Ryan is 34, and Julio Jones is 30; burning away what's left of their primes on mediocrity would be a shame. The team has won three of its last five, but two of them came against a Panthers squad that fired its own head coach in between those two losses. With Calvin Ridley no longer around to keep secondaries semi-honest, it could be tough for either Julio or Matty Ice to have a big finish. Last week, the Niners did something they hadn't had to do yet this season, which was win a game when the defense was falling apart. Last week's 48-46 shootout against the Saints was the third time this season San Francisco has scored 40 or more points — they're the only team in the NFC to accomplish that, along with the Titans and Ravens (who have done it five times) in the AFC. Given that they're still third in the league in scoring defense even after last week, and it's easy to see why they're back in the No. 1 seed in the conference. Even the backfield seems less like a question mark with Raheem Mostert emerging as the top RB, although Kyle Shanahan is likely to keep riding the hot hand, no matter who it is, straight into January.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Ridley (IR, abdomen), LG James Carpenter (out, concussion), CB Desmond Trufant (IR, forearm)

SF injuries: DE Dee Ford (out, hamstring) CB Richard Sherman (out, hamstring)

ATL DFS chalk: none

SF DFS chalk: none

ATL DFS tournament plays: none

SF DFS tournament plays: Deebo Samuel (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Kendrick Bourne (ATL 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), 49ers DST (SF first in sack percentage)

Key stat: SF is t-3rd in third-down offense at 45.9 percent; ATL is 25th in third-down defense at 43.4 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Devonta Freeman grinds out 50 yards. Ryan throws for 260 yards and a TD to Russell Gage. Mostert chews up 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Matt Breida adds 50 yards and a score. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and TDs to Emmanuel Sanders and Samuel. 49ers, 31-13
 

Buffalo (+2) at Pittsburgh, 36.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The game with arguably the most on the line this week, the Bills are one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East and hold the first wild-card spot, while the Steelers are a game behind them and sit in the second wild card on a tiebreaker over the Titans. With Buffalo also having beaten Tennessee this year, whoever wins this one all but locks up a postseason berth, while the loser will be stuck trying to fend off the Titans over the final two weeks. The Bills gave the Ravens a good fight last week but came up short, ending their three-game winning streak, and they continue to get by on being good but not great on both sides of the ball. Devin Singletary has broken out as their bell cow, topping 100 scrimmage yards in three straight, but Josh Allen's ugly outing against Baltimore raised questions once again about whether he can actually evolve into an NFL-quality passer, or whether he'll just be a better version of Tim Tebow in the end. The Steelers would love to have him, though. Their defense has been absolutely remarkable in winning three straight and seven of eight, but the offense is down to third-string QB Devlin Hodges, who looked like a bargain bin Allen in Arizona last week. Getting James Conner back would give the unit a boost, but JuJu Smith-Schuster remains sidelined and now Vance McDonald is injured as well. If they keep winning the turnover battle, though, they should be able to come up with a win, and maybe a playoff spot, for my dad's birthday — he's a lifelong Steelers fan.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RG Jon Feliciano (questionable, illness)

PIT injuries: RB Conner (questionable, shoulder), WR Smith-Schuster (out, knee), TE McDonald (out, concussion)

BUF DFS chalk: none

PIT DFS chalk: Steelers DST (PIT first in takeaways, second in sack percentage)

BUF DFS tournament plays: Isaiah McKenzie (PIT 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: BUF is 10th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 61.1 percent (22-for-36) of RZ possessions; PIT is ninth in red-zone defense at 51.3 percent (20-for-39)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 20s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Singletary picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for under 200 yards and a TD to John Brown. Conner starts but gains only 50 yards, while Benny Snell Jr. runs for 60 and a score. Hodges throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jaylen Samuels, while Mark Barron scoops up a Dawson Knox fumble and returns it to the house. Steelers, 27-16

N.Y. Jets (+15) at Baltimore, 45.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Jets have proven themselves to be among the best of the worst with their recent surge, winning four of their last five (against the Giants, Raiders, Dolphins and Washington — the loss, of course, was to the Bengals), all but taking them out of the running for a top five pick in the 2020 draft. Sam Darnold has been solid to borderline good over that stretch, posting a 9:2 TD:INT and 7.8 YPA, with Robby Anderson (18-303-2 on 26 targets the last three weeks) as his primary weapon. Le'Veon Bell was struggling on the ground behind a ragtag offensive line even before missing the last game, but he's healthy now and is only eight yards away from 1,000 scrimmage yards this season, which is something at least. Speaking of milestones, Lamar Jackson is only 23 yards shy of setting an NFL record for rushing yards in a season by a quarterback, and while the Jets haven't been awful against scrambling QBs, both Josh Allen and Dak Prescott trotted into the end zone against them earlier in the year. The only thing standing between Jackson and history might be the quad injury he suffered Sunday. If he does have to air it out a little more than usual, though, that may not slow down the Ravens' juggernaut of an offense much, especially with Jamal Adams unlikely to suit up.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: RB Bilal Powell (out, ankle/illness), RB Ty Montgomery (questionable, foot/hip), WR Demaryius Thomas (doubtful, hamstring), TE Ryan Griffin (out, ankle), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), RT Chuma Edoga (out, knee), S Adams (doubtful, ankle)

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, quad), TE Mark Andrews (questionable, knee), LT Ronnie Stanley (doubtful, concussion)

NYJ DFS targets: Trevon Wesco / Daniel Brown (BAL 20th in DVOA vs. TE)

BAL DFS targets: Marquise Brown (NYJ 25th in DVOA vs. WR1, 26th in DVOA against deep throws), Ravens DST (NYJ 29th in points per game, 30th in sack percentage allowed, BAL fifth in points per game allowed, t-6th in takeaways)

NYJ DFS fades: Anderson (BAL seventh in DVOA vs. WR1)

BAL DFS fades: Mark Ingram / Gus Edwards (NYJ first in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in rushing DVOA)

Key stat: BAL is second in third-down offense at 47.4 percent; NYJ are 23rd in third-down defense at 41.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Bell picks up 80 combined yards. Darnold throws for 210 yards and a score to Wesco. Ingram leads the BAL backfield with 70 scrimmage yards. Jackson sets the record in the second quarter with a rushing TD, and throws for 270 yards and three more touchdowns, finding Brown, Hayden Hurst and Willie Snead. Ravens, 31-10

Last week's record: 11-5, 5-9-2 ATS, 9-7 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 127-80-1, 96-107-5 ATS, 105-98-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 763-464-5, 566-619-47 ATS, 471-487-18 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)