NFL Game Previews: Bears-Patriots Matchup

Chicago (+8) at New England, o/u 39.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

NFL Fans: Please, no more Denver standalone games! (finger on monkey's paw curls)

The Bears are the worst kind of mess — a boring one. They have yet to score more than 23 points in a game and managed 12 or less three times, and the only reason they have two wins is that other teams have scored 20 or less against them four times in six games. Last week, they couldn't even beat a wounded Carson Wentz. Justin Fields' season high for passing yards is 208, he's failed to complete 52 percent of his passes four times in six games, and that all comes with a 4:5 TD:INT. Absolutely gruesome numbers. Part of the problem is that Matt Eberflus clearly hasn't trusted him to throw the ball, and last week's 27 attempts was also a season high, but with stats like that, it seems like an entirely reasonable decision. If there's a prop bet on Eberflus drafting his own QB in the first round next season, you might want to get some of that action. David Montgomery also hasn't been quite the same since his ankle injury, but the same thing happened last season as it took him a few games after his return from injury to get going again. Khalil Herbert is the clear No. 2 regardless, and he probably won't bust out 64-yard runs every week, but it's awfully nice when he does considering his limited workload while Montgomery's healthy.

Is the Bailey Zappe era upon us? Mac Jones has practiced all week, albeit in a limited fashion, but Bill Belichick won't confirm he'll get the start if he's cleared to go. This is probably just Bill being Bill, and Jones will probably be under center Monday night, but it's hard to overlook what Zappe has done in guiding the Patriots to consecutive wins (and nearly a third in that overtime loss at Lambeau). With Zappe at the helm, Jakobi Meyers has flashed, Tyquan Thornton has looked like a second-round pick, and Hunter Henry has remembered how to get into the end zone. The team's defense has come in a few weeks early in their annual turnaround, so if the offense can start clicking too — and the team's scored at least 24 points in four straight — a return to the playoffs is entirely plausible. Which makes you wonder how long Belichick with stick with Jones if the passing game starts sputtering again.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: LG Cody Whitehair (IR, knee)
NE injuries: QB Jones (questionable, ankle), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, hamstring), RG Mike Onwenu (questionable, ankle), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, shoulder), CB Jonathan Jones (questionable, ankle), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, illness)

CHI DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: Damien Harris $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD and Rhamondre Stevenson $6,300 DK / $8,300 FD (CHI 27th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Patriots DST $3,800 DK / $4,800 FD (t-3rd in takeaways, CHI t-31st in sacks allowed, t-27th in giveaways)

CHI DFS fades: Darnell Mooney $4,800 DK / $6,300 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: Jones $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (CHI third in passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: NE 14th in third-down conversions at 40.6 percent; CHI t-30th in third-down defense at 46.2 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 70 combined yards. Fields throws for less gthan 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does run in a score. Harris churns out 80 yards and a TD in his return, while Stevenson adds 70 scrimmage yards. Jones plays and throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Meyers. Patriots 20-10

Cleveland (+6) at Baltimore, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The AFC North is officially a dogpile, with every team either 3-3 or 2-4, which I guess in theory should benefit the Browns? There isn't much else going their way. Cleveland's lost three straight as its defense has just become completely discombobulated. A week after holding Justin Herbert to less than 230 passing yards but letting Austin Ekeler romp all over them, the Browns allowed Bailey Zappe to throw for more than 300 yards in his second NFL start. Sure, why not. Injuries have been an issue, but they don't account for the entirety of the unit's collapse, and this team isn't built to mount comebacks. Nick Chubb is still in the lead for the rushing crown, but Jacoby Brissett's got a 2:4 TD:INT with a 55.3 percent completion rate and a 6.4 YPA in that three-game losing streak. Heck, he has as many fumbles as TD passes during that time. He has four more games, including this one, to right the ship before Deshaun Watson takes over, but the Browns' schedule is pretty brutal — home game against the Bengals next week, then on the road against the Dolphins and Bills coming out of a Week 9 bye. Watson could be taking the reins of a 3-7 or even 2-8 team pretty easily.

The Ravens aren't doing a whole lot better, but with a win over the Bengals already, they are technically in first place in the division. They've been alternating wins and losses all year, which sets them up for the winner's circle here, but their season's in many ways been a mirror image of Cleveland's. In un-Baltimore fashion, the running game has had trouble getting much going outside of Lamar Jackson, and even he hasn't run for a TD in three games. J.K. Dobbins' recovery from last year's brutal knee injury hasn't gone smoothly, to the point that Kenyan Drake had to be pressed into duty last week. Gus Edwards looks close to returning, which might help, but there's no guarantee he won't need a ramp-up period too. On the other hand, the secondary is coming together after a horrific start to the season, and over those last three games they've held Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones to less than 220 passing yards. (They still lost two of them because the offense couldn't scrape together more than 20 points, but that's still progress.) What they really need is someone dangerous Jackson can throw to other than Mark Andrews, but a splashy trade or an Odell Beckham signing or something like that really isn't this front office's style.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: QB Watson (out, suspension), RG Wyatt Teller (questionable, calf), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, ankle), DE Myles Garrett (questionable, shoulder), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, ankle), LB Deion Jones (IR-R, shoulder), LB Anthony Walker (IR, quadriceps), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, concussion)
BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, hip), RB Dobbins (out, knee), RB Edwards (PUP-R, knee), WR Rashod Bateman (questionable, foot), TE Andrews (questionable, knee), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), RT Morgan Moses (questionable, heel), DE Calais Campbell (questionable, foot), EDGE Justin Houston (questionable, groin), CB Kyle Fuller (IR, knee), S Marcus Williams (IR, wrist)

CLE DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Dobbins $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD and Drake $5,100 DK / $6,600 FD (CLE 30th in rushing DVOA, 26th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Devin Duvernay $4,500 DK / $5,900 FD (CLE 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

CLE DFS fades: none
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL t-10th in red-zone conversions at 60.0 percent; CLE t-20th in red-zone defense at 58.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 BAL, average score 27-19 BAL, average margin of victory 11 points. BAL had won four straight meetings by an average score of 33-18 before CLE's 24-22 victory in Week 14 of last year – a game in which Lamar suffered a season-ending ankle injury early in the second quarter and was replaced by Tyler Huntley

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb piles up 100 yards and a score, while Kareem Hunt adds 50 scrimmage yards. Brissett throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Amari Cooper. Drake again leads the BAL backfield with 110 combined yards. Jackson gets some revenge for last year, throwing for 260 yards and hitting Duvernay and Andrews for touchdowns while running for 60 yards and two scores of his own. Ravens 31-17

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+11), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

What are we calling this one, KraftGate? The Wedding Crash? Tom Brady's decision to attend Robert Kraft's wedding (sans Gisele) last Friday — y'know, about 36 hours before kickoff — may or may not have contributed to the Buccaneers' upset loss in Pittsburgh to (gak) Mitch Trubisky, but it certainly doesn't look great. Maybe Brady shouldn't have hired Tom Cruise's old PR team. Brady has now thrown multiple TDs exactly once in six games this season, and maybe it isn't the wide receiver injuries holding him back. His numbers aren't all bad, as he has a 67.2 percent completion rate and has only been picked off once all year, but much like Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, you have to wonder how guys in the locker room are viewing his commitment level to the team. Tampa Bay's still in first place in the NFC South, but it's with a 3-3 record and only due to a tiebreaker over Atlanta, which is not exactly a championship-level start. Of course, nobody knows better than Brady that it doesn't matter how you start, only how you finish, and there's no way these guys flop two weeks in a row against a team they should be able to bully. Right?

Clearly, Matt Rhule was the problem in Carolina. Steve Wilks' first game as interim head coach featured a sideline squabble with Robbie Anderson that got the veteran wideout traded nearly before the final whistle blew, and a season-low 10 points, eight first downs and 203 yards of offense. Yeah, OK, there's only so much you can do with what is technically the fourth-string QB (PJ Walker) under center, but those numbers should be impossible when you have Christian McCaffrey still doing CMac things out of the backfield. McCaffrey has nearly 43 percent of the team's yards (670 of 1,560), which is a higher share than even Saquon Barkley. Did I mention the trade rumors around McCaffrey don't seem to stop coming? Can you imagine how awful this offense would be without him? There's your true vision of Halloween horror. Anyway, let's just check the news real quick before I move on to the next game ... oh. Oh God no.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee), TE Cameron Brate (questionable, neck), LG Aaron Stinnie (IR, knee), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, ankle), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, foot), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (questionable, quadriceps), CB Carlton Davis (questionable, hip)
CAR injuries: QB Baker Mayfield (questionable, ankle), QB Sam Darnold (IR-R, ankle), C Pat Elflein (questionable, hip), LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, shoulder), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, ankle), CB Jaycee Horn (questionable, ribs), CB CJ Henderson (questionable, concussion), S Jeremy Chinn (IR, hamstring)

TB DFS targets: none
CAR DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Walker $5,000 DK / $6,200 FD (TB fourth in passing DVOA, fifth in YPA allowed), Shi Smith $3,300 DK / $5,400 FD (TB fourth in DVOA vs. WR3), Panthers DST $2,200 DK / $3,500 FD (t-28th in sacks, TB t-3rd in sacks allowed)

Key stat: CAR 32nd in third-down conversions at 23.6 percent; TB 22nd in third-down defense at 42.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TB, average score 27-21 TB, average margin of victory 14 points. TB has won four straight meetings by an average score of 38-16

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette rumbles for 120 yards and a score. Brady throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 60 yards, but D'Onta Foreman vultures a touchdown. Walker throws for less than 200 yards but limits his mistakes. Buccaneers 27-10

Atlanta (+6) at Cincinnati, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Of all the teams doing surprisingly well to begin the season, Atlanta is the one that has me the most baffled. The Jets? A lot of early round talent on both sides of the ball starting to gel. The Giants? An exciting new head coach to inspire the troops, plus a healthy Saquon. The Falcons? Uhh ... aren't they in the "getting rid of old, expensive players before bringing in new" stage of their build? They're still shipping contracts like Deion Jones' out the door. Their two bright lights on offense from last year, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, are either hurt or MIA. They have Marcus Mariota under center, for pity's sake. And yet, here they are at 3-3 with wins over the Browns and 49ers. I know this is the chaos season, but that's not even chaos. That's just random. There isn't even much a deeper dive into the stats to explain their success, other than maybe that they're one of the most disciplined teams in the league when it comes to penalties (third in number and yardage). I want to say something like, "I can't imagine they'll keep it up," but I can totally imagine Atlanta hovering around .500 all year and still being in the wild-card picture with Christmas approaching, especially considering their upcoming schedule — five of their six games after this week are against the Bears, Commanders, Steelers and Panthers (twice).

The Bengals are also 3-3, and also winners of three of their last four after an 0-2 start, but that's about where the comparisons end. Joe Burrow is coming off his best performance of the season, throwing for three TDs and running for a fourth while completing better than 75 percent of his passes, and while his offensive line still isn't doing great, at least he hasn't been sacked 13 times in a two-game stretch in a while. Burrow still doesn't have all his weapons at 100 percent health — Tee Higgins got healthy just in time for Ja'Marr Chase to get a bit banged up — but things are trending up. The AFC North remains winnable, and Cincy's as likely to catch fire as anyone.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RB Patterson (IR, knee), RB Damien Williams (IR, ribs), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), CB Casey Hayward (IR, shoulder)
CIN injuries: WR Chase (questionable, hip), TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, groin), RG Alex Cappa (questionable, illness), LB Logan Wilson (questionable, shoulder)

ATL DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: Burrow $6,900 DK / $8,300 FD (ATL 31st is passing yards per game allowed, t-25th in passing TDs allowed)

ATL DFS fades: Mariota $5,500 DK / $7,100 FD (CIN fourth in YPA allowed, t-6th in passing TDs allowed)
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN third in third-down conversions at 47.6 percent; ATL t-30th in third-down defense at 46.2 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tyler Allgeier leads the ATL backfield with 70 yards, while Caleb Huntley adds 50. Mariota throws for 220 yards and a TD to Drake London. Joe Mixon racks up 90 yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Chase, Higgins (who tops 100 yards) and Hurst. Bengals 31-16

Detroit (+7) at Dallas, o/u 49 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Lions' early bye wound up being timely, as their offense was a shambles and needed a week off to get healthier. No amount of injuries or Bill Belichick sorcery can really explain how Detroit went from hanging 45 points on Seattle to getting shut out by New England, but it's all water under the Gordie Howe Bridge now. (That's the one that will still be under construction until at least 2024, which seems about right for these Lions too.) The time off doesn't seem to have gotten D'Andre Swift back to 100 percent health, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is fully recovered from his ankle sprain, and he's arguably the more important piece of the offense at this point. There's no helping the defense, though. This is a unit that nearly made Bailey Zappe a household name, and in retrospect Carson Wentz hanging 27 points on them (the Detroit defense's best effort to date) doesn't seem so impressive. I guess in theory the bye week could have helped the defense figure some things out too, but there isn't much talent on that side of the roster beyond Aidan Hutchinson (and potentially a healthy Jeff Okudah?) yet.

Speaking of getting guys back from injury ... the Cowboys did as well as could have been hoped with Cooper Rush under center, even making a game of it against the Eagles last week, but with Dak Prescott now spearheading the offense again we'll get to see whether Dallas is a legit contender. This is almost the perfect tune-up game for him — Detroit's run defense is arguably even worse than their pass defense, so Prescott shouldn't need to sling it around 40-plus times his first game back. All his main weapons are healthy, while Micah Parsons and the defense will be itching to take out their frustrations on someone after that loss to Philly. Jared Goff has been getting rid of the ball quickly enough to avoid being brought down — he's tied with Justin Herbert for fewest sacks in the league among QBs who have started all their team's games —  but that doesn't mean he can't be harried into an INT or three.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Swift (questionable, shoulder), WR DJ Chark (questionable, ankle), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, knee), WR Jameson Williams (NFI-R, knee), WR Quintez Cephus (IR, foot), C Frank Ragnow (questionable, foot), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (IR, back), RG Tommy Kraemer (IR, back), DE Romeo Okwara (PUP-R, Achilles), CB Will Harris (questionable, hip), S Tracy Walker (IR, Achilles)
DAL injuries: WR James Washington (IR, foot), LT Tyron Smith (IR, knee)

DET DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Prescott $6,700 DK / $7,500 FD (DET 32nd in passing DVOA, 28th in YPA allowed), Ezekiel Elliott $6,000 DK / $6,900 FD and Tony Pollard $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD (DET 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), Michael Gallup $5,100 DK / $6,100 FD (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

DET DFS fades: Goff $5,800 DK / $7,300 FD (DAL third in passing DVOA, fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Lions DST $2,300 DK / $3,100 FD (32nd in sacks, t-28th in takeaways, DAL t-3rd in sacks allowed, t-2nd in giveaways)
DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET 23rd in third-down conversions at 36.9 percent; DAL eighth in third-down defense at 35.2 percent

The Scoop: Swift plays, but Jamaal Williams still leads the DET backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a score. Goff throws for 260 yards and a TDs to St. Brown but gets picked off twice. Elliott gains 80 yards and a touchdown, while Pollard also totes up 80 combined yards and a score. Prescott throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz. Cowboys 34-17

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Jacksonville, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Giants continue to eke out victories through sheer moxie. They're 5-1, but the five wins are by a combined 21 points; by comparison, the Bills' five wins are by an average of 19.4 points. They all still count, though, and it wouldn't be fair to say the Giants' wins have all been flukes. Each game by Big Blue has been a Belichick season in microcosm — they take the measure of their opponent early, and then crush them late. The only time they haven't outscored an opponent in the second half is the one time they wound up losing, and even then they made the Cowboys work for it. Daniel Jones still isn't a great quarterback and probably never will be, but he's at least dialing back the mistakes and turnovers, and it's becoming juuuuust possible to see him stay in New York on a second contract. This is Saquon Barkley's offense, though. He leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and had gotten into the end zone in four of six games, and they've generally been crucial, timely scores too. The wide receivers coach might as well be MacGyver given how jury-rigged the depth chart is, and the defense has been more good enough than straight good, but the team is clearly buying what Brian Daboll is selling, and there's been just enough talent around the roster to make it all work. So far.

A promising start has collapsed into a 2-4 record for the Jaguars, but the Titans came into the week leading the division at 3-2 so there's no reason to panic. I feel the urge to give this team a lot of slack simply because Urban Meyer took an already sinking ship and steered it over the Mariana Trench before dynamiting the hull, and it's easy to forget just how mammoth a task Doug Pederson has in front of him to pull the franchise back out of those depths. It's also possible Trevor Lawrence is already broken beyond repair, which wouldn't help the salvage efforts. Last week's game might be a sign of how Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor plan to build back his confidence — Lawrence threw two incompletions and zero interceptions on 22 attempts, but also threw for only 165 yards and had just two completions of 20 or more yards. Hey, it's better than what he did against the Eagles and Texans (combined 51.4 percent completion rate and 2:3 TD:INT.) There will be less pressure on Sunshine to part the clouds if the running game becomes dominant. James Robinson looked great early this season but lately Travis Etienne has been the star, piling up 222 scrimmage yards the last two weeks. If they can both get rolling at the same time, a la Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, or even if Jacksonville can get more production out of their recent high picks on defense, there's still plenty of time to turn the season around.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Kadarius Toney (out, hamstring), WR Kenny Golladay (out, knee), WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), C Jon Feliciano (questionable, groin), DE Azeez Ojulari (out, calf)
JAC injuries: WR Marvin Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Jamal Agnew (out, knee), LG Ben Bartch (IR, knee), LB Foye Oluokun (questionable, calf), CB Shaquill Griffin (out, back) 

NYG DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Etienne $5,400 DK / $6,200 FD and Robinson $5,900 DK / $5,800 FD (NYG 28th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

NYG DFS fades: Barkley $7,900 DK / $9,300 FD (JAC third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)
JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC 11th in yards per play at 5.62; NYG 23rd in yards per play allowed at 5.61

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley gains 80 combined yards. Jones throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Marcus Johnson and Daniel Bellinger. Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 90 scrimmage yards, while JRobinson adds 70 yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Evan Engram (revenge game!) and Christian Kirk. Jaguars 27-20

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Can we just stipulate that the AFC South is the worst division in the league this year? Any objections? Sure, both these teams are above .500 — which is more than the AFC North, NFC South or NFC West can say at the moment — but in all three of those cases, the division boasts at least one club that still seems like a Super Bowl threat if it gets rolling. Are the Colts in that group with a healthy Jonathan Taylor? Not really. Matt Ryan's surface stats might suggest he's coming around, but he's topped a 6.7 YPA just once in the last five games, and that includes last week against the Jags when he set a franchise record for completions. The defense is also missing Shaquille Leonard, who can't seem to get back on the field. There are enough pieces here to win the division or maybe sneak into a wild-card spot, but it's hard to image the Colts making a deep run.

The Titans are coming off their bye week, but it didn't really help them with their injury issues. Tennessee will come into this one down two starting offensive linemen, its first-round wideout and multiple key pieces on defense. Heck, even fullback Tory Carter won't be available to open the occasional hole for Derrick Henry. The big man does have five rushing TDs during a four-game scoring streak, and over the Titans' last three contests he's piled up 422 scrimmage yards, but his 4.3 yards per carry during that three-game stretch remains pedestrian and he has only one run of 20 yards or longer on the season. Henry's still able to plow through the first would-be tackler — only Dameon Pierce has more broken tackles — but he isn't getting much further than that, and his 2.0 yards after contact per carry would be a career low. Between his goal-line role and some extra work as a receiver he's keeping his fantasy value afloat, but if Henry isn't a nearly mythic figure parting defenses like the Red Sea any more, the Titans lack both an identity and a consistent way to climb out of the holes their secondary (statistically the worst in the league) is digging for them.

The Skinny

IND injuries: DE Kwity Paye (out, ankle), LB Leonard (out, nose)
TEN injuries: WR Treylon Burks (IR, toe), WR Kyle Philips (questionable, hamstring), LT Taylor Lewan (IR, knee), RG Nate Davis (out, foot), LB Zach Cunningham (out, elbow), EDGE Harold Landry (IR, knee)

IND DFS targets: Ryan $5,400 DK / $7,300 FD (TEN 29th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Alec Pierce $4,600 DK / $6,100 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Parris Campbell $3,900 DK / $5,400 FD (TEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), Mo Alie-Cox $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD and Jelani Woods $2,500 DK / $4,700 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
TEN DFS targets: Titans DST $3,000 DK / $4,200 FD (IND 28th in sacks allowed, t-29th in giveaways)

IND DFS fades: Taylor $8,100 DK / $8,000 FD and Nyheim Hines $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (TEN third in rushing DVOA, first in rushing TDs allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB)
TEN DFS fades: Philips $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (IND second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: TEN t-24th in third-down conversions at 35.6 percent; IND t-5th in third-down defense at 33.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 TEN, average score 25-24 TEN, average margin of victory 12 points. TEN has won four straight meetings, including a 24-17 win in Week 4

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor gains 70 yards. Ryan has another huge game, throwing for 340 yards and four touchdowns — two to Pierce and one each to Michael Pittman (who tops 100 yards) and Woods. Henry grinds out 80 yards and a score. Ryan Tannehill can't quite keep pace, throwing for 260 yards and TDs to Robert Woods and Austin Hooper. Colts 31-30

Green Bay at Washington (+5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Like clockwork, we're on the "Aaron Rodgers blames everyone but himself for the problems with the offense" portion of the Packers' season. To be fair, he didn't pick his receiving corps, and he's not the one forgetting to lean on his backfield to compensate. OK, fine, I'll give him this one. Only twice this season have Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon gotten at least 15 touches each; Green Bay is 2-0 in those games. Yeah yeah, correlation, causation, yadda yadda yadda. Rodgers clearly only trusts Allen Lazard, and Lazard simply isn't the kind of wideout who can make things happen against double teams or elite coverage the way Davante Adams did. It looked like Romeo Doubs might be joining that circle of trust, but after turning 14 targets into only seven catches for 50 yards the last two games, he might be back on probation. Until the passing game gets sorted out, just give the dang ball to your top-shelf RB duo. Part of the issue might be having a first-year coordinator in Adam Stenavich. He's been on the Packers' staff as long as Matt LaFleur has, so he should know the scheme, but either there's a communication problem or the new guy is trying a little too hard to prove himself.

The Commanders come into this one down their starting quarterback, but if they hadn't announced Taylor Heinicke was replacing Carson Wentz, would anyone have noticed? Wentz underwent surgery on the ring finger on his throwing hand, and he's basically in the same grey zone Dak Prescott was in earlier in the year, where he might possibly be ready to return in four games so the team doesn't want to put him on IR. It's dumb, especially in this case when there isn't a huge perceived gap in talent between the starter and his backup, and Dallas certainly could have put that roster spot to better use during the five games Prescott missed, but hey, no one's ever accused Washington of being the most tightly run franchise during the Dan Snyder era. (That Snyder era might mercifully be coming to a close, too, which should make every Commanders fan ecstatic.) Brian Robinson scored his first career TD last week, putting me in mind of this scene from Princess Bride, which means I'll probably be calling him the Dread Pirate Robinson from now on. The rookie's remarkable recovery is still a better human interest story than a needle-mover for fantasy purposes, but he is on top of the depth chart and seems to have the goal-line job to himself — Antonio Gibson hasn't seen a red-zone carry since Robinson made his belated debut. None of that adds up to an offense that can overcome the team's defensive issues against competitive clubs, but at least their schedule is (looks at rest-of-year schedule) ... oh. Oh dear. A five-win season might be optimistic.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (out, ankle), WR Sammy Watkins (IR-R, hamstring), WR Christian Watson (out, hamstring)
WAS injuries: QB Wentz (out, finger), WR Jahan Dotson (questionable, hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (out, calf), C Wes Schweitzer (IR, concussion), C Chase Roullier (IR, knee), RT Samuel Cosmi (questionable, finger), DE Chase Young (PUP-R, knee), CB William Jackson (out, back)

GB DFS targets: Doubs $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Amari Rodgers $3,500 DK / $4,800 FD (WAS 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
WAS DFS targets: Robinson $5,500 DK / $6,100 FD and Gibson $5,300 DK / $5,500 FD (GB 32nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed), Terry McLaurin $5,900 DK / $6,200 FD (GB 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

GB DFS fades: Robert Tonyan $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. TE)
WAS DFS fades: Heinicke $5,000 DK / $6,600 FD (GB first in passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: WAS 26th in third-down conversions at 35.4 percent; GB first in third-down defense at 26.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones busts out with 110 combined yards and a TD, while Dillon adds 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and scores to Doubs and Lazard. The Dread Pirate Robinson plunders 90 yards and a touchdown, while Gibson chips in 50 yards. Heinicke throws for 210 yards and a TD to McLaurin. Packers 27-23

N.Y. Jets (+1) at Denver, o/u 38 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

It's basically a dead heat, which New York team has been the most surprising, but the Jets definitely seem to have a brighter future, even if some members of the roster seem to disagree. Breece Hall has found the end zone in three consecutive games while amassing 396 scrimmage yards, and you (and by you I mean me) missed your window on getting good odds on him winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. The defense that's been shining too, with Sauce Gardner elevating the secondary and the front seven being anchored by Quinnen Williams and Quincy Williams. There's got to be a nickname for that duo. Q-AMOK, maybe? Ehh, too NY Post-y. I'll workshop it. Basically, Robert Saleh has young talent all over the roster and is putting the kids in position to succeed, and they are. Zach Wilson hasn't joined the party yet, though, and until he does this is probably best viewed as a fun team that won't actually make a serious push in 2022.

Imagine being a member of this Broncos defense. Every year you do your job extremely well and wind up among the stingiest units in the league, and every year your offense lets you down. Then this offseason the front office finally makes that big splashy trade for a franchise QB and ... nothing changes. Soul crushing. Denver's lost back-to-back games in overtime, and whether Russell Wilson admits it or not, the Broncos think it will be in everyone's best interest if he takes at least this week off to heal up — he's out with a hamstring injury. (Of course, if Brett Rypien then comes in and wins the games Wilson misses ... well, at this point that's a dilemma the team will gladly take.) Russ might not even be the biggest problem, of course. Nathaniel Hackett continues to flounder, with his backfield management in the wake of Javonte Williams' injury being the latest head-scratcher. Melvin Gordon's your guy, until he isn't and gets benched for no given reason mid-game, but he's still the starter coming into this game? Yeah, sure, Nate. Way to regain the confidence of the locker room.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: WR Elijah Moore (out, personal), LT George Fant (IR, knee), RT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee)
DEN injuries: QB Wilson (out, hamstring), RB Williams (IR, knee), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), LT Garett Bolles (IR, leg), LT Tom Compton (PUP-R, back), RG Quinn Meinerz (questionable, foot), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, knee), EDGE Randy Gregory (IR, knee), CB Ronald Darby (IR, knee)

NYJ DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: ZWilson $5,100 DK / $6,600 FD (DEN first in passing DVOA, second in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Corey Davis $4,700 DK / $5,600 FD (DEN fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ t-8th in red-zone conversions at 63.2 percent; DEN first in red-zone defense at 26.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 14-16 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hall picks up 80 yards and a TD, while Michael Carter chips in 50 combined yards. ZWilson throws for less than 200 yards. Latavius Murray leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a score. Rypien starts and throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding Greg Dulcich and Tyrie Cleveland. Broncos 21-10

Houston (+7) at Las Vegas, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

There's four teams left with one win, but the Texans have the best record of the bunch thanks to that tie against the Colts. They arguably deserve better; the three losses have been by a combined 20 points, and even in the bigger loss to the Bolts they were within one field until the final few minutes of the fourth quarter. The Houston offense has been exactly as anticipated (i.e. a fantasy wasteland), with only rookie Dameon Pierce putting up decent numbers thanks to good volume and a 4.8 YPC. It's the defense that's been keeping them in games, and only the Broncos, Cowboys and Bengals have let fewer opponents into the end zone (to be fair, Houston's played one fewer game than those three teams and is only 13th in points per game allowed.) It's a pretty simple formula — if they can hold the opposition to less than 20 points, the Davis Mills-led offense has a shot.

The Raiders are, somewhat shockingly, one of those other one-win clubs, and with them also coming off their bye, neither side has a rest or preparation advantage. At least on paper, anyway — I'm not sure who I'd take between Lovie Smith and Josh McDaniels to put that extra prep time to better use. Derek Carr shook off an ugly Week 1 performance to post a 6:1 TD:INT over his last four contests, but his 61.9 percent completion rate and 6.7 YPA during that time are mediocre at best, and the passing game being a one-trick pony with Davante Adams hasn't really been working for anyone other than GMs with Adams on their fantasy rosters. Josh Jacobs has at been able to pick up the slack and is eighth in the league in scrimmage yards, the only member of the top 12 who hasn't played a full six games. Things likely won't turn around here, though, as even after the week off, Darren Waller's out and Hunter Renfrow's not 100 percent healthy. This is a classic "movable object versus resistible object" battle — the Las Vegas defense hasn't given up fewer than 23 points in a game this year, while the Houston offense has yet to score more than 24.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Chris Moore (questionable, hip), TE Brevin Jordan (questionable, ankle), C Justin Britt (NFI-R, personal), DE Jonathan Greenard (IR, calf)
LV injuries: WR Renfrow (questionable, hip), WR Mack Hollins (questionable, heel), TE Waller (out, hamstring), LB Jayon Brown (questionable, hamstring), CB Anthony Averett (IR-R, thumb)

HOU DFS targets: Moore $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (LV 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
LV DFS targets: Jacobs $6,500 DK / $8,600 FD (HOU 29th in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed)

HOU DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Raiders DST $3,300 DK / $4,000 FD (t-30th in sacks, t-31st in takeaways, HOU t-2nd in giveaways)

Key stat: HOU t-10th in red-zone conversions at 60.0 percent; LV 32nd in red-zone defense at 82.4 percent

The Scoop: Pierce picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Mills throws for 220 yards and two scores, finding Moore and Brandin Cooks. Jacobs gallops for 110 combined yards and a TD. Carr throws for 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Texans 24-13

Seattle (+6) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 51 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

After scoring a combined 80 points in their prior two games, Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense mysteriously sputtered to 19 points last week, but it all worked out because a Seattle defense that has coughed up 84 points in those two games held Kyler Murray and company to nine. Chaos season! The running game hasn't missed a beat with Kenneth Walker taking over for Rashaad Penny (nobody tell Colin Cowherd) but then, that was the whole point of drafting Walker. It's Geno that's been the big surprise, but much as I want him to have a miraculous comeback season, I can't help but notice his three big games in Weeks 3-5 came against three shaky and/or injury-ravaged secondaries. The Chargers' unit isn't great but it doesn't fit either of those categories, so let's just say I don't have a lot of confidence in Seattle holding up their end of the score my algorithm popped out.

Those Chargers are also on a three-game winning streak after squeaking by the Broncos in OT last week, but if history has taught us anything it's not to trust a Chargers team that seems to have finally figured it all out. Austin Ekeler's been leading the charge, and the fact that Justin Herbert managed a pitiful 4.2 YPA against Denver can be written off as a combo of opponent and a lack of Keenan Allen. Allen might return this week, but if he can't the receiving corps will be extra short-handed with Joshua Palmer also out. It's actually just a bad week in general to be a Charger named Joshua. Herbert's got options, though, even beyond just looking for Mike Williams every time he drops back. The Bolts reached the 30-point mark in the first two games of their winning streak, and getting back there in this one doesn't seem like a tall task.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Penny (IR, ankle), WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hamstring), RG Gabe Jackson (doubtful, knee), CB Sidney Jones (questionable, groin), S Jamal Adams (IR, knee) 
LAC injuries: RB Joshua Kelley (out, knee), WR Allen (questionable, hamstring), WR Palmer (out, concussion), TE Donald Parham (out, concussion), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, biceps), K Dustin Hopkins (out, hamstring), EDGE Joey Bosa (IR, groin)

SEA DFS targets: none
LAC DFS targets: Ekeler $8,300 DK / $9,500 FD (SEA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Gerald Everett $4,000 DK / $6,300 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

SEA DFS fades: Lockett $5,800 DK / $6,800 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2), Seahawks DST $2,200 DK / $3,000 FD (LAC t-1st in sacks allowed, t-2nd in giveaways)
LAC DFS fades: Jason Moore $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: SEA 31st in red-zone conversions at 33.3 percent; LAC 16th in red-zone defense at 55.0 percent

The Scoop: Walker rambles for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Smith throws for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting DK Metcalf and Noah Fant. Ekeler answers back with 130 scrimmage yards and a score. Herbert throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Everett and Williams (who tops 100 yards), but his attempted game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter falls short. Seahawks 31-30

Kansas City at San Francisco (+2.5), o/u 48.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The week's marquee matchup once again features Kansas City, but this time against a much different opponent. The formula's been simple so far — if Patrick Mahomes can lead the team to at least 27 points they win, and if not they lose. It's all been on Mahomes' shoulders, as per usual. He's attempted at least 35 passes every game, and tossed multiple TDs in five of six. Meanwhile Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen double-digit carries only once. I can already hear Tony Dungy in my head droning on about "balance," but as I always say when the subject comes up, which of those two players would you rather have handling the ball? It also helps that JuJu Smith-Schuster is starting to click with Mahomes, and even Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems close to a breakout — yeah, he had a goose egg last week, but only after a would-be TD on the team's first possession got wiped out by a penalty.

(Deletes everything I had written already about the Niners.) Oh look, Christmas came early for Kyle Shanahan. There may be no better fit between scheme and player in recent memory than Christian McCaffrey and Shanahan's offense, and now here the former Panther is wearing red and gold. McCaffrey might not suit up for this one while he learns the playbook, or at least have his usage limited, CMac already knows how to maximize the damage he does in open space. His addition, and even just the threat of having him on the field, instantly makes everyone else around him better. Jimmy Garoppolo, for instance, has typically graded out extremely well in play action, and defenses now have to respect the run even more than they did against a Jeff Wilson or even an Elijah Mitchell. About the only downside for fantasy GMs is that Deebo Samuel won't get as many carries. Combine that with a defense that's great when healthy (and starting to get healthier) and an extremely winnable division, and the Niners have to be viewed as right there with the Eagles for front-runner status in the NFC. We can just, uhh, forget all about that collapse last week against the Falcons — even though San Francisco gave up a season-high 28 points, the defense still held Atlanta's offense to less than 300 yards.

The Skinny

KC injuries: LG Joe Thuney (questionable, ankle), RT Lucas Niang (PUP-R, knee), CB Rashad Fenton (out, hamstring), CB Trent McDuffie (IR-R, hamstring)
SF injuries: RB Mitchell (IR, knee), DT Javon Kinlaw (IR, knee), DT Arik Armstead (out, foot), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (IR, knee), CB Charvarius Ward (questionable, groin), CB Emmanuel Moseley (IR, knee), CB Jason Verrett (PUP-R, knee), S Talanoa Hufanga (questionable, concussion)

KC DFS targets: Mecole Hardman $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD and Skyy Moore $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
SF DFS targets: Garoppolo $5,500 DK / $7,200 FD (KC 28th in passing DVOA, 27th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Samuel $7,600 DK / $7,700 FD (KC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

KC DFS fades: Mahomes $7,800 DK / $8,500 FD (SF second in passing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Edwards-Helaire $6,100 DK / $6,700 FD (SF first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)
SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF t-14th in red-zone conversions at 58.8 percent, pre-CMac; KC t-29th in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, 10-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: CEH gets held to 40 yards, but Isiah Pacheco picks up a late TD. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding JJSS and Moore. Wilson leads the SF backfield with 60 yards and a TD, while McCaffrey also hauls in a receiving score in his 49ers debut. Garoppolo throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, both to Deebo. 49ers 34-24

Pittsburgh (+7) at Miami, o/u 45 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

It's not often that a win causes problems for a team, but that could be exactly what happens with the Steelers. Mike Tomlin, to his credit, is insisting that rookie Kenny Pickett is his quarterback when he's healthy, but Mitch Trubisky now holds the team's only two victories of the year. It would be madness to turn back to Trubisky if for no other reason than you don't want to waste development time for the kid in what will almost certainly be a lost season, but if he bails them out again in relief ... well, that'll be Tomlin's problem, not mine. It would help either QB if Najee Harris could get going, but he has yet to top 89 scrimmage yards in a game and just looks stuck in mud. Pick your poison of terrible stats — a 3.2 YPC, zero runs of at least 20 yards (on 83 carries), or how about 1.3 yards after contact per carry, ranking him in the bottom four in the league among RBs? He got by on volume as a rookie, but that volume isn't saving him this time around. Maybe he's not 100 percent, maybe it's poor o-line play, or maybe he was just overrated to begin with. Whatever the issue, Pittsburgh's always works better when it has a threat in the backfield, and right now, Harris ain't it.

The Dolphins get Tua Tagovailoa back this week after going 3-0 with him playing a full game, and 0-3 without. That's a pretty good MVP case, to be honest. You can't even chalk it up to the schedule — Miami beat Baltimore and Buffalo with Tua, and lost to the Jets without him. Tyreek Hill's been productive no matter who's chucking him the ball, and he actually sits second in the league in scrimmage yards behind Saquon (19 ahead of Nick Chubb), which would be a pretty remarkable feat, though maybe not as much as it seems. Last year was the first time since 2015 that a wideout had finished in the top three in scrimmage yards, but two of them did it (Cooper Kupp was second and Deebo Samuel third behind Jonathan Taylor). Tyreek's only two touchdowns have been thrown by Tua, though, so he's probably still happy to see him back.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: EDGE T.J. Watt (IR, knee), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (doubtful, hamstring)
MIA injuries: WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, shoulder), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, toe), RT Austin Jackson (IR-R, ankle), Greg Little (questionable, Achilles), DE Christian Wilkins (questionable, hand), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (questionable, back), CB Xavien Howard (questionable, groin), CB Byron Jones (PUP-R, ankle)

PIT DFS targets: Pickett $5,100 DK / $6,800 FD (MIA 31st in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed)
MIA DFS targets: Tagovailoa $5,900 DK / $7,700 FD (PIT 30th in passing yards per game allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed)

PIT DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Mike Gesicki $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (PIT fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: MIA fourth in red-zone conversions at 70.6 percent; PIT eighth in red-zone defense at 47.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, 8-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris manages 60 yards, while Jaylen Warren adds 60 yards and a receiving TD. Pickett throws for 240 yards and a second score to Diontae Johnson. Raheem Mostert gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Tua throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) twice and Waddle once and overcoming a Cameron Heyward strip sack that Alex Highsmith returns to the house. Dolphins 31-21

New Orleans (+2) at Arizona, o/u 43.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Depending on your perspective, the Saints are either teetering on the edge of collapse at 2-4, or doing pretty well given all their injuries, considering they're only one game back in the NFC South. Jameis Winston is off the injury report but likely isn't 100 percent healthy, meaning Andy Dalton could be getting his fourth consecutive start. The offense has actually scored more points in three games under Dalton than it did in three games under Winston, but that might have more to do with the state of Winston's back than anything else. Alvin Kamara is at least back firing on all cylinders, churning out 318 scrimmage yards in the last two games, though he has yet to get into the end zone this year. That should rectify itself quickly enough. Rookie sensation Chris Olave is also back from his concussion, and he remains the only reliable target in a receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. The offensive line and secondary haven't been immune to the injury plague either, which makes it tough to predict exactly what kind of performance New Orleans is going to give you any particular week. Regardless of which version of the team shows up, though, it's hard to look past the fact the Saints' only two wins have come against the woeful Panthers, and in The Taysom Hill Game. If they're not facing a team that's quit on its coach, or getting a historic effort from a gadget player, I don't like their chances.

Speaking of which ... I genuinely thought Kliff Kingsbury might be following Matt Rhule back to the college ranks after last week's pitiful showing against Seattle. Explain to me how you retain your rep as an offensive genius after your offense fails to score a touchdown against a defense that's 30th in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed — and those rankings are after they held you to nine points and 171 passing yards? Blame this 2-4 start on Kyler Murray if you want, but dude's on pace for his first 4,000-yard passing season with a completion rate higher than 65 percent, and his second-most rushing totals to boot. Murray gets DeAndre Hopkins back from his suspension this week, but he just swaps in for the injured Marquise Brown, so it could be a while before the passing game is at full strength. It won't matter if Kingsbury keeps expecting his wideouts to do all the work after the catch — Murray is 21st in intended air yards per attempt, in the neighborhood of guys like Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz (he is ahead of Aaron Rodgers, but that's a whole 'nother story). The offense's struggles also made Eno Benjamin something of a FAAB bust last week, but James Conner isn't getting any less fragile, so there's a shot at redemption for the running back. I have a long track record of being a week early on guys like Benjamin, so don't give up on him just yet. That said, whichever back gets the carries will also be working behind a patchwork offensive line.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Thomas (out, foot), WR Landry (out, ankle), TE Adam Trautman (out, ankle), LT Trevor Penning (IR, toe), LG Andrus Peat (out, pectoral), LG Calvin Throckmorton (questionable, hip), CB Paulson Adebo (questionable, knee), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, abdomen)
ARI injuries: RB Conner (questionable, ribs), RB Darrel Williams (out, knee), WR Brown (out, foot), LG Justin Pugh (out, knee), C Rodney Hudson (out, knee), K Matt Prater (questionable, hip), S Jalen Thompson (questionable, hamstring)

NO DFS targets: Kamara $10,600 DK / $15,000 FD (ARI 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)
ARI DFS targets: Rondale Moore $5,800 DK / $9,000 FD (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: Olave $7,400 DK / $11,000 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR1)
ARI DFS fades: Zach Ertz $7,000 DK / $10,000 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NO is t-31st in giveaways at 13 through six games

The Scoop: Kamara carries the NO offense with 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Dalton throws for 230 yards and a back-breaking pick-six to Budda Baker. Benjamin leads the ARI backfield with 90 yards and a score. Murray throws for 240 yards and a TD to Hopkins in his return while also running for 40 yards. Cardinals 24-23

Last week's record: 7-7, 6-8 ATS, 7-7 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 45-48-1, 39-52-3 ATS, 49-44-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1333-817-8, 1044-1044-70 ATS, 784-831-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)