NFL Game Previews: Week 3 Matchups

Chicago at Washington (+4), 41.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

It's not often a team can set the second overall pick on fire and still be successful, but that might be what the Bears have done. Mitchell Trubisky seems to have regressed in his third season, failing to top a 5.1 YPA in either of his two games so far, but as long as the defense remains among the league's elite, they could still win their share of games. You have to wonder if Matt Nagy might begin to consider benching him for long-time backup Chase Daniel though, who knows the system and did OK-ish in two starts last year. Another poor result here, against a secondary that couldn't hold a lead against Carson Wentz in Week 1 and got picked apart by Dak Prescott in Week 2, and there are going to be some serious questions that need to be answered in Chicago. I mean, hey, this is clearly the year of the QB switch, so better jump on that trend early if you can. Case Keenum has an even more tenuous hold on his starting job, but only because the team invested so much draft capital in his backup. Keenum's actually been solid through two weeks, and it's been the defense that has dragged Washington down to an 0-2 start. Rookie WR Terry McLaurin looks like the real deal, and there are pieces to build around once Jay Gruden decides Dwayne Haskins is ready to take over. I figured that would come in Week 4 after an 0-3 start, which is still very possible, but Keenum's play and the Cowboys' roaring start kind of take the pressure off to keep up in the NFC East.

The Skinny

• CHI injuries: TE Trey Burton (questionable, groin), RG Kyle Long (questionable, hip), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, shoulder)
• WAS injuries: RB Derrius Guice (IR, knee), TE Jordan Reed (questionable, concussion), LT Trent Williams (out, contract dispute), RT Morgan Moses (questionable, knee), DE Jonathan Allen (questionable, knee)
• CHI DFS chalk: David Montgomery (WAS 31st in rushing yards allowed)
• WAS DFS chalk: none
• CHI DFS tournament plays: Allen Robinson (WAS 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Taylor Gabriel (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
• WAS DFS tournament plays: Washington DST (CHI t-30th in scoring)
• Key stat: CHI is 29th in third-down conversions at 23.1 percent; the WAS defense is 32nd in getting off the field on third downs (64.3 percent)
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Montgomery carves out 90 yards and a touchdown. Trubisky struggles again, throwing for under 200 yards and getting picked off twice by Josh Norman. Adrian Peterson gets held to 40 yards, but Chris Thompson finds 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Keenum throws for 230 yards and a second score to Vernon Davis. Washington, 20-13

Cincinnati (+6) at Buffalo, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

So much for that promising start to the Bengals' season in Seattle. They got clobbered at home by the Niners, and now Zac Taylor has to try to rally the troops for a tough road matchup. Andy Dalton, at least, has posted strong numbers so far in Taylor's system, but a battered and shaky offensive line is going to make it tough for him to continue tossing 300-plus yards a game — he's already fumbled three times in two games under the pressure he's been getting. The Bills, meanwhile, are hanging out with the Pats in the AFC East luxury suite for a change, and while the doorman is eyeing them warily, they haven't looked out of place yet. The defense looks as strong as last year and Josh Allen is still generating offense with his legs, but the difference might be that he hasn't been a liability throwing the ball, either, thanks to a nearly 12-point improvement in his completion percentage. Granted, much of that could be a mirage based on facing two struggling secondaries, but the Bengals did just get torn up by Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Skinny

• CIN injuries: WR A.J. Green (out, ankle), LT Cordy Glenn (questionable, concussion), LG Michael Jordan (questionable, knee)
• BUF injuries: RB Devin Singletary (out, hamstring)
• CIN DFS chalk: none
• BUF DFS chalk: none
• CIN DFS tournament plays: none
• BUF DFS tournament plays: Frank Gore (CIN 30th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in rushing DVOA), John Brown (CIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 30th vs. deep throws)
• Key stat: BUF has allowed the opposition to make the fewest trips to the red zone in the league through two games (only two), but they've given up TDs on both.
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, 13 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Joe Mixon grinds out 60 yards. Dalton throws for 220 yards and hits Tyler Boyd for a score. Gore rushes for 70 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Brown while running in another score, but he also throws a pick-six to William Jackson III to keep things close. Bills, 21-20
 

Detroit (+6.5) at Philadelphia, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Lions remain undefeated, so why does it feel like they should be 0-2? Probably because their record basically comes down to two plays — a missed INT by the Cards' Tramaine Brock in overtime during the opener, and a successful pick in the end zone by Darius Slay to rob the Chargers of the go-ahead TD last week. Perhaps in an effort to ensure the locker room doesn't rest on unearned laurels, Detroit kicked C.J. Anderson to the curb, leaving the backfield in Kerryon Johnson's hands — unless it plans to have sixth-round rookie Ty Johnson take on Anderson's role in the timeshare. On the other hand, Matthew Stafford has a career-high 8.4 YPA under new OC Darrell Bevell, so maybe their record isn't entirely a fluke. The Eagles come into this one short-handed at wide receiver after a punishing loss in Atlanta, leaving Carson Wentz with basically only Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor to throw to, unless he starts trusting rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. The front seven isn't a whole lot healthier, either, and while Philly came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations, so far they're only played down to the level of their competition. A decisive win in a game they should win would go a long way toward shooing away the bad mojo that's starting to accumulate around them. Digging another hole like they did against Washington, however, is only going to raise more eyebrows and create more doubt, whether they can climb out of it in the second half.

The Skinny

• DET injuries: LT Taylor Decker (questionable, back), LB Jarrad Davis (questionable, ankle)
• PHI injuries: WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable, calf), WR DeSean Jackson (out, abdomen)
• DET DFS chalk: none
• PHI DFS chalk: none
• DET DFS tournament plays: Matthew Stafford (PHI 31st in passing yards allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Marvin Jones (PHI 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
• PHI DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: Despite injuries, the PHI run defense ranks fourth in the league, allowing 2.8 yards per carry.
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kerryon dashes for 60 combined yards and a touchdown, while the junior Johnson, Ty, adds 50 combined yards and a receiving TD. Stafford throws for 270 yards and a second score to Jones. Miles Sanders leads the Eagles backfield with 80 yards. Wentz steps it up, throwing for 300 yards and two TDs to Ertz (who tops 100 yards) before leading a game-winning field-goal drive in the final minutes. Eagles, 26-24
 

N.Y. Jets (+22.5) at New England, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Look, it doesn't surprise me that Adam Gase wouldn't even return the phone calls of the best available free-agent quarterback after losing both Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemian. You could even make the argument that Darnold will be back anyway by the time Kaepernick would be up to speed, so what's the point. (His best fit is in Carolina as Cam insurance anyway). Even so, the Jets deserve everything they get this week heading into a matchup against the Patriots with only Luke Falk (25 career pass attempts, all from last week) and David Fales (48 career attempts since being drafted in 2014) at QB. The only winner will be New York tabloid headline writers, who have their Fales/fail puns locked and loaded. Oh, and New England, of course. The Pats have looked like an absolute juggernaut through two weeks, and while the introduction of Antonio Brown didn't take, his departure isn't likely to be a distraction. Given how the Steelers are reeling, next week's clash with the Bills could wind up looking like their only real challenge of the first half. Seriously — after Week 4, they face Washington, the Giants and then the Jets again before playing host to the Browns in Week 8. Expect more spreads of 20-plus points, is what I'm saying.

The Skinny

• NYJ injuries: QB Darnold (out, illness), QB Siemian (IR, ankle), WR Demaryius Thomas (doubtful, hamstring), TE Chris Herndon (out, suspension), LT Kevin Beachum (questionable, ankle), RG Brian Winters (questionable, shoulder), DT Quinnen Williams (questionable, ankle), LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, groin)
• NE injuries: QB Tom Brady (questionable, calf), LT Isaiah Wynn (IR, toe), C David Andrews (IR, illness), RT Marcus Cannon (questionable, shoulder)
• NYJ DFS chalk: none
• NE DFS chalk: Patriots DST (NYJ t-30th in scoring, t-25th in sacks allowed, NE 1st in scoring defense, t-1st in takeaways, t-2nd in sacks)
• NYJ DFS tournament plays: none
• NE DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: The NE defense ranks in the top two in points allowed, QB rating against, yards per carry allowed, third-down conversion defense and red-zone defense through two weeks.
• Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 NE, average score 27-15 NE, average margin of victory 14 points. NYJ used to be able to keep this rivalry close at least, but not lately – the average score in the last five meetings is 31-8 NE.
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Le'Veon Bell managed 60 yards. Falk throws for 210 yards and only gets picked off once, which should count as a moral victory of sorts. James White leads the Pats backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Sony Michel adds 70 yards and a score and Rex Burkhead catches a touchdown pass as well. Tom Brady throws for 250 yards and two more touchdowns — one each to Josh Gordon and Jakobi Meyers — before surprisingly handing the reins to Jarrett Stidham late. Patriots, 35-6
 

Oakland (+8.5) at Minnesota, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The high that came with beating the Broncos in the final home opener in Oakland faded quickly, as the Raiders got handled easily by a Chiefs squad that basically only played offense for one quarter. Derek Carr regressed to his 2018 form, while the few dangerous weapons the team has came out of Week 2 nicked up. I was skeptical last year that Jon Gruden would be able to return to coaching after such a long layoff and simply pick up where he left off, and his attempt to clear the deck and bring in "his" guys has only succeeded in creating a roster barren of impact talent on either side of the ball. If the target is to be competitive the team's first year in Las Vegas, maybe one more season at the bottom is part of the plan, but the Dolphins seemingly already have the top pick in the 2020 draft locked up. The Vikings got Lambeau'ed last week by Aaron Rodgers, and while the defense tightened up after getting ambushed, relying on Kirk Cousins to lead a comeback was apparently asking a little too much of the $84 million man. Minnesota's formula is to get a lead and lean on Dalvin Cook and that top-shelf D, but if that's their only formula for success, it won't be enough to keep them playing deep into January.

The Skinny

• OAK injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, groin), WR Tyrell Williams (questionable, hip), RG Gabe Jackson (out, knee), RT Trent Brown (questionable, knee), LB Vontaze Burfict (questionable, shoulder), CB Gareon Conley (questionable, neck), S Jonathan Abram (IR, shoulder)
• MIN injuries: LG Pat Elflein (questionable, knee), LB Anthony Barr (questionable, groin), CB Mackenzie Alexander (out, elbow)
• OAK DFS chalk: none
• MIN DFS chalk: Stefon Diggs (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
• OAK DFS tournament plays: none
• MIN DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: OAK ranks 29th in third-down defense through two weeks at 51.9 percent (14-for-27); PHI ranks second in third-down offense at 57.1 percent (20-for-35)
• Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop

Jacobs is held to 70 yards. Carr throws for 220 yards and a TD to Ryan Grant. Cook rambles for 110 yards and two touchdowns, while Cousins throws for under 200 yards again. Vikings, 20-10
 

Baltimore (+6.5) at Kansas City, 54.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

A potential playoff preview, both these teams have pretty much done what they wanted offensively through two weeks. Lamar Jackson's thrashing of the Dolphins looks less impressive with each passing day, but last week's performance against the Cardinals is probably a better reflection of what he's capable of moving forward — better passing than in 2018, if not exactly elite (he posted a 7.4 YPA against Arizona), while still offering electric upside on the ground. The Ravens defense remains excellent, but even excellent may not be good enough against Patrick Mahomes. Last week's massive second quarter against the Raiders added another page to his scrapbook — the second-most passing yards in any quarter in NFL history — and unlike Jackson, the quality of the opposition he's faced doesn't slap an asterisk on his performance to date. The same Jaguars defense he picked apart in Week 1 held Deshaun Watson in check the following week and just sacked Marcus Mariota about a billion times Thursday, so they can't be dismissed as easy marks. The weather could put a damper on any anticipated shootout, but if Mahomes shrugs off the rain and still does something similar to this Baltimore unit, it's hard to imagine anyone or anything slowing him down — at least until he gets a rematch with the Patriots in Week 14.

The Skinny

• BAL injuries: TE Mark Andrews (questionable, foot), CB Jimmy Smith (out, knee)
• KC injuries: RB Damien Williams (out, knee), RB LeSean McCoy (questionable, ankle), WR Tyreek Hill (out, shoulder), LT Eric Fisher (out, groin)
• BAL DFS chalk: none
• KC DFS chalk: none
• BAL DFS tournament plays: Marquise Brown (KC 29th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
• KC DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per pass attempt. No quarterback has averaged 10.0 or above for a full season since Norm Van Brocklin in 1954, and the record for a season with at least 400 pass attempts belongs to Matt Ryan, who posted a 9.3 YPA in 2016.
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, 11-12 mph wind, 50-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Mark Ingram picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Brown while also running for 60 yards and a score of his own. McCoy starts but Darwin Thompson leads the Chiefs backfield with 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 350 yards and another four touchdowns, hitting Travis Kelce twice and Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson once each, with Watkins topping 100 yards. Chiefs, 37-24
 

Atlanta (+2) at Indianapolis, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Falcons looked a little better last week, but it was the hard-hitting defense that set the tone for the win over the Eagles, not Matt Ryan and the offense. That's probably just the way coach Dan Quinn likes it, truth be told. Julio Jones suddenly becoming a touchdown machine can't be overlooked, though – after seeing what Mike Evans could do for him in Tampa Bay, Dirk Koetter apparently had the revelation in Atlanta that hey, maybe we should throw the ball to the NFL's most physically gifted wide receiver in the end zone. Given that Calvin Ridley hasn't slowed down his scoring pace from his rookie campaign, either, and Matty Ice could be headed for another season with a TD total in the high 30s. Hopefully his INT total doesn't continue to keep pace. The Colts come into this one at 1-1, but they could just as easily be 0-2 as 2-0. Pivoting on a dime and becoming the AFC's version of the Vikings, and relying on defense and the ground game to get by, is all well and good, but Adam Vinatieri has clearly become a liability at kicker. When your game plan leads to a lot of close games, you can't afford to keep squandering points. With Marlon Mack not 100 percent, maybe Indy should let Jacoby Brissett open things up a bit to see if they can build consistent leads that not even Vinatieri can cost them — although given how Minnesota dispatched this Atlanta team in Week 1, this may not be the matchup the Colts really need to try it in.

The Skinny

• ATL injuries: none
• IND injuries: RB Mack (questionable, calf), WR T.Y. Hilton (questionable, quad)
• ATL DFS chalk: none
• IND DFS chalk: none
• ATL DFS tournament plays: Devonta Freeman (IND 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
• IND DFS tournament plays: Hilton (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Colts DST (ATL 31st in turnovers, IND t-2nd in sacks)
• Key stat: Ryan has a career 99.2 QB rating at home, 90.7 on the road
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Freeman pops for 90 combined yards. Ryan throws for 260 yards and TDs to Julio and Austin Hooper. Jordan Wilkins leads the Indy backfield with 60 yards. Brissett throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Hilton and Deon Cain, but another missed Vinatieri field goal costs them the game. Falcons, 23-20
 

Denver (+7.5) at Green Bay, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Welcome to the Joe Flacco experience, Denver. While the veteran QB certainly hasn't been terrible, the general malaise that settled over the Baltimore offense the last few years has come west with him, and started to affect the whole Broncos team. You can certainly find excuses for their two losses so far — facing an emotional Oakland team in its last home opener at the Coliseum, facing a nasty Bears defense — but now they're facing Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau, so good luck avoiding 0-3. Solid as Rodgers has been, though, he hasn't actually had to do too much thanks to the Packers' defense. The unit has given up the second-fewest points in the league through two weeks, and while stifling Mitchell Trubisky wasn't a big challenge, they put down a Kirk Cousins comeback attempt without too much trouble as well. The new safety duo of former Bear stalwart Adrian Amos and rookie Darnell Savage has revitalized the secondary, while the Smith boys (Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith, most recently of Washington and Baltimore, respectively) have added a pass-rush threat off the edge that a fading Clay Matthews was no longer providing consistently.

The Skinny

• DEN injuries: RT Ja'Wuan James, (out, knee)
• GB injuries: RB Jamaal Williams (questionable, ankle), TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, groin), LG Lane Taylor (questionable, biceps), LB Blake Martinez (questionable, shoulder)
• DEN DFS chalk: none
• GB DFS chalk: none
• DEN DFS tournament plays: none
• GB DFS tournament plays: Packers DST (GB 2nd in scoring defense, t-1st in takeaways)
• Key stat: DEN is the only team in the NFL without a sack so far.
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 13-14 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Phillip Lindsay leads the Denver backfield with 70 combined yards. Flacco throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Emmanuel Sanders. Aaron Jones bangs out 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 250 yards and scores to Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham. Packers, 21-13
 

Miami (+21.5) at Dallas, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

So, I've got sort of a jury-rigged formula for determining who I'm going to write up as the winner every game, and by how much. This early in the season, I look at both last year's stats and this year's, and if there's a big discrepancy I have to make a judgment call which one I'm going to weigh more heavily. This game, though ... if I go by 2018's numbers, I've got Dallas winning by one score. If I go by 2019's numbers, they win by, oh, about 12 touchdowns. We've seen bad teams in recent years — the Hue Jackson Browns, the 2008 Lions — but nothing like this joke of a roster Miami is putting on the field. Just compare the offensive lines here to see what kind of talent disparity this game features. The Dolphins are starting two rookies on the offensive line — a third-round pick and a sixth rounder — and none of the other three starters was taken any higher than the fifth round their draft year. (That should make Josh Rosen, sacked 45 times as a rookie in Arizona working behind a bunch of turnstiles, feel right at home in his first start for the Fish.) The Cowboys, of course, counter with three first-round picks, a second-rounder and a UDFA in La'el Collins who would have been a high pick if not for some unfortunate circumstances, and who just got a big contract extension. A spread of more than three TDs is basically college territory, but if Dallas takes this game seriously, they could have that covered by the half. Any given Sunday, yadda yadda yadda, but there's no reason to expect this game to be close, even before you factor in how much better Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' passing game have looked under new OC Kellen Moore.

The Skinny

• MIA injuries: WR Albert Wilson (out, calf), LT Julien Davenport (IR, knee), S Reshad Jones (out, ankle)
• DAL injuries: WR Michael Gallup (out, knee)
• MIA DFS chalk: none
• DAL DFS chalk: Dak Prescott (MIA 28th in passing yards allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Ezekiel Elliott (MIA 32nd in rushing yards allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Amari Cooper (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1, 31st vs. deep throws), Cowboys DST (MIA 32nd in scoring, 32nd in turnovers, t-31st in sacks allowed)
• MIA DFS tournament plays: none
• DAL DFS tournament plays: Randall Cobb (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Jason Witten / Blake Jarwin (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Devin Smith (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)
• Key stat: I mean, where do I start?
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, 10-11 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kenyan Drake leads the Miami backfield with 60 yards. Rosen gets sacked five times en route to throwing for under 200 yards and getting picked off twice, once of which rookie safety Donovan Wilson takes to the house in his first career NFL game. Ezekiel Elliott piles up 160 combined yards and two TDs before giving way to Tony Pollard, who also scores. Prescott throws for a relatively quiet 270 yards and two touchdowns to Devin Smith and Blake Jarwin. Cowboys, 45-3
 

N.Y. Giants (+6.5) at Tampa Bay, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

What's that Bob Dylan line? "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." From the moment Daniel Jones was selected sixth overall by the Giants, the clock was ticking on Eli Manning's tenure as starting QB, and it finally hit zero after last week's loss. Jones fills out a uniform well and looked good in the preseason, and he'll have a couple of theoretically softer opponents (at Tampa, home to Washington) before he really gets thrown into the fire against the Vikings and Pats. He'll also get Sterling Shepard back from a concussion this week as his top WR, but this will be an offense that goes as far as Saquon Barkley can take them – which, if the first two weeks of awful defensive play are any indication, won't be far enough. The Bucs still have their own QB situation to muddle through, though. Jameis Winston was terrible in Week 1 and slightly more tolerable in Week 2, but as yet he hasn't shown new coach Bruce Arians that he's the long-term answer. Chris Godwin's breakout has pushed Mike Evans into a secondary role, but there should be enough targets for both in an Arians offense if things ever click for Winston. In the meantime, a defense which ranks a surprising seventh in QB rating against and third in yards per carry allowed will have to keep playing above his projected head.

The Skinny

• NYG injuries: WR Golden Tate (out, suspension), WR Cody Latimer (out, concussion), WR Bennie Fowler (questionable, hamstring)
• TB injuries: LB Devin White (out, knee)
• NYG DFS chalk: none
• TB DFS chalk: Chris Godwin (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
• NYG DFS tournament plays: none
• TB DFS tournament plays: Breshad Perriman (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
• Key stat: Opposition offenses are a perfect 6-for-6 scoring touchdowns in the red zone against the NYG defense.
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 80s, 13-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Barkley gains 80 scrimmage yards and scores. Jones has a rough debut, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Evan Engram but getting picked off three times. Ronald Jones leads the Bucs backfield with 70 yards, but Peyton Barber scores a short touchdown. Winston throws for 290 yards and TDs to Godwin and Evans. Buccaneers, 30-17
 

Carolina at Arizona (+2.5), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

This just feels scripted. doesn't it? Cam Newton is hurt once again, and because no one in the NFL will touch Kaepernick with a 10-foot pole, the Panthers are left with Kyle Allen as their QB. You know, the guy who wound up an undrafted free agent in 2018, foregoing his last year of college eligibility after Kyler Murray chased him out of College Station. You call it the perfect setup for a revenge game against the guy who stole his job, I call it the perfect setup for Murray to demonstrate why he won that Texas A&M job fair and square in 2015, and come away with his first NFL win at the same time. Potato, potahto. Of course, there will be some other players on the field, and talent-wise Ron Rivera's squad still outmatches Kliff Kingsbury's in most areas. Arizona's run defense hasn't been quite as bad as last year but they still aren't good, so a healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey could keep Murray from doing much of anything from the sidelines.

The Skinny

• CAR injuries: QB Cam Newton (out, foot), TE Greg Olsen (questionable, back)
• ARI injuries: LB Jordan Hicks (questionable, groin), CB Patrick Peterson (out, suspension)
• CAR DFS chalk: McCaffrey (ARI 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
• ARI DFS chalk: David Johnson (CAR 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
• CAR DFS tournament plays: Olsen (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
• ARI DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: ARI is 31st in red-zone offense so far, scoring touchdowns on two of eight RZ possessions
• Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

CMac busts out for 120 combined yards and a TD. Allen looks good, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to Olsen and Curtis Samuel. Johnson manages 80 combined yards, while Murray throws for 330 yards and TDs to Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd. Panthers, 27-23
 

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at San Francisco, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I have to admit, I don't really get giving up a first-round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick after you've lost your starting quarterback for the season, but maybe the Steelers know something about Mason Rudolph we don't. The offense should still be decent with Rudolph under center, though – assuming James Conner and Vance McDonald stay healthy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster grows into his No. 1 role. There are a lot more things that can go wrong than go right from here on out, and a dwindling chance of catching the Ravens in the AFC North. The Niners' 2-0 start is a lot easier to wrap my head around. There's never anything particularly surprising about a Kyle Shanahan offense producing points, but now the defense is showing signs that they can hold up their end of the bargain too. Stepping up against Winston and Dalton may not be the biggest accomplishment, but there's talent in the pass rush and the secondary, and now some confidence to go with it.

The Skinny

• PIT injuries: QB Ben Roethlisberger (IR, elbow), CB Joe Haden (questionable, shoulder)
• SF injuries: RB Tevin Coleman (out, ankle), LT Joe Staley (out, leg), DE Dee Ford (questionable, quad), DE Nick Bosa (questionable, ankle)
• PIT DFS chalk: none
• SF DFS chalk: Jimmy Garoppolo (PIT 29th in passing yards allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed), George Kittle (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
• PIT DFS tournament plays: none
• SF DFS tournament plays: Marquise Goodwin (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3, 28th vs. deep throws), 49ers DST (PIT 29th in scoring, SF t-1st in takeaways)
• Key stat: SF is fourth in the league in QB rating against
• Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Conner chews up 100 combined yards and scores. Rudolph throws for 240 yards and a TD to JuJu but gets picked off twice. Matt Breida leads the Niners backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Raheem Mostert adds 70 yards and a TD. Garoppolo throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Kittle and Goodwin. 49ers, 34-17
 

New Orleans (+4) at Seattle, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

This is the fifth straight game I'm writing up where the visiting team is unveiling a new starting quarterback for the week, by the way: Rosen for Miami, Jones for the Giants, Allen for Carolina and Rudolph for Pittsburgh. Drew Brees' thumb injury won't keep him out all season, and Teddy Bridgewater might be a safer understudy than any of the prior four, but that doesn't mean the Saints will be able to just ride this thing out without any worries. Especially if Bridgewater gives way to Taysom Hill too often. Sean Payton's infatuation with his bargain-bin Tim Tebow could suddenly turn into a full-blown l'amour fou, and if it does it could ruin New Orleans' chances of staying afloat in an NFC South that lacks a dominant team. Meanwhile in Seattle, sanity might actually be reigning at QB after Russell Wilson got to throw the ball a whole 35 times last week in Pittsburgh. Maybe it's that Rashaad Penny hasn't really panned out, or that Chris Carson can't seem to hold onto the football, but whatever the reason this is a better offense, and better team, when Wilson is its focal point. That said, it was just one road game. The Saints have struggled to slow anyone down on the ground so far, and if Carson and/or Penny have some early success, Pete Carroll could easily revert to form and keep the game closer than it needs to be. Remember, Tebow may have sucked as a QB, but he still stole a few wins.

The Skinny

• NO injuries: QB Drew Brees (out, thumb), WR Ted Ginn (questionable, thigh), WR Tre'Quan Smith (questionable, ankle), LG Andrus Peat (questionable, ankle)
• SEA injuries: none
• NO DFS chalk: none
• SEA DFS chalk: Chris Carson (NO 32nd in rushing DVOA)
• NO DFS tournament plays: none
• SEA DFS tournament plays: DK Metcalf (NO 27th in DVOA vs. WR1), Jaron Brown (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
• Key stat: SEA is 4-for-4 scoring TDs in the red zone so far; NO has allowed TDs in five of eight RZ trips by the opposition
• Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Alvin Kamara manages 80 combined yards. Bridgewater throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Jared Cook, while Hill runs for 50 yards and a score but also loses a crucial fumble. Carson runs for 80 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 260 yards and TDs to Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Seahawks, 24-14
 

Houston (+3) at L.A. Chargers, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It was very nice of the Titans to relieve the Texans of the "worst pass protection in the AFC South" crown Thursday, but Houston still needs to figure out a way to keep Deshaun Watson upright more often. Sacks are always going to be part of the equation for a gambler like Watson, but they aren't going anywhere without him, and averaging five sacks a game is going to get him killed. It would also help if the defense could find something close to its old form and keep Watson from feeling like he has to do too much, but J.J. Watt looks like a shell of his former self (which, granted, is still a pretty good player, just not an impact one) and the secondary is getting picked apart, sitting 28th in completion percentage allowed. The Chargers haven't shown much of a pass rush yet (bottom five in sacks, sack percentage and QB hits), but at some point Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa will get going, and this seems like a good spot to do it in. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have made Melvin Gordon's holdout seem very futile, giving old man Philip Rivers the luxury of picking his spots – although he maybe wasn't picky enough last week in Detroit. Then again, his kicker had missed two field goals already, so you can understand him wanting to just win the game outright in a matchup he liked (Darius Slay on Keenan Allen) rather than hoping for overtime.

The Skinny

• HOU injuries: LT Laremy Tunsil (questionable, ankle)
• LAC injuries: RB Gordon (out, contract dispute), TE Hunter Henry (out, knee), K Michael Badgley (questionable, groin)
• HOU DFS chalk: none
• LAC DFS chalk: none
• HOU DFS tournament plays: none
• LAC DFS tournament plays: Chargers DST (HOU t-31st in sacks allowed)
• Key stat: Rivers' 8.9 YPA would be the highest of his career if he can keep it up.
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Carlos Hyde bangs out 60 yards and a TD, while Duke Johnson gains 80 combined yards and a receiving score. Watson throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins. Ekeler scampers for 110 combined yards and a score, while Jackson also finds the end zone. Rivers throws for 260 yards and a TD to Mike Williams. Chargers, 27-21
 

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (+3), 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Rams squeaked one out in Carolina before their NFC Championship rematch with the Saints fizzled when Brees got hurt, but Jared Goff is still making me wonder if he actually did swap identities with Ryan Gosling or something. Including the 2018 playoffs, Goff has thrown multiple TD passes only once in his last 10 games (a Week 17 shootout with the 49ers), although last week's 10.1 YPA was at least his best performance in that category during that stretch. Aaron Donald and the Wade Phillips defense are probably capable of getting the team back to the postseason on their own, but it's hard to see them getting back to the Super Bowl without more from their QB. The Browns took care of business Monday against the Jets, and while it wasn't the most emphatic stat line from Baker Mayfield, it really didn't need to be given the tattered remnants of a roster he was facing. Cleveland's got their own rash of injuries to deal with now, though, so it might be time for Mayfield to step up and start slinging it. Having fewer options with David Njoku down might actually be a blessing in disguise for the young QB, if it forces him to just get rid of the ball quicker (and in Odell Beckham's direction more often) rather than holding onto it too long and waiting for something to develop. To paraphrase a respected six-time Oscar nominee and one of our greatest living actresses, Baker is not a thinker. Baker is a chucker. He is a doer.

The Skinny

• LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (out, chest), RG Austin Blythe (questionable, ankle), DE Donald (questionable, back)
• CLE injuries: RB Kareen Hunt (out, suspension), WR Rashad Higgins (questionable, knee), WR Antonio Callaway (out, suspension), TE David Njoku (out, wrist), LG Joel Bitonio (questionable, abdomen), RT Chris Hubbard (questionable, foot), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, hamstring), S Damarious Randall (out, concussion)
• LAR DFS chalk: none
• CLE DFS chalk: none
• LAR DFS tournament plays: Gerald Everett (CLE 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
• CLE DFS tournament plays: none
• Key stat: CLE ranks first in third-down defense at 16.7 percent (4-for-24)
• Weather forecast: partly cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 13-14 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Todd Gurley picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown, while Darrell Henderson also scores. Goff throws for 240 yards and TDs to Robert Woods and Everett. Nick Chubb responds with 130 combined yards and a score. Mayfield throws for 310 yards and TDs to Beckham and Jarvis Landry, and rides that skeleton horse downfield in the fourth quarter for a game-winning FG. Browns, 30-28
 

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+1.5), 39.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

After thumping the Browns in their opener, the Titans couldn't seal the deal in a winnable game at home against the Colts. Marcus Mariota continues to be one of the dinkiest dunkiest QBs in the league, and while his inability (or unwillingness, either on his part or on OC Arthur Smith's) to stretch the field hasn't slowed Derrick Henry down yet, it is going to lead to a lot of low-scoring muckfests as Tennessee tries to win ugly, or not at all. The Jags may be 0-2 thanks to some sketchy placement of the "goal-line" cameras in Houston, but Gardner Minshew's still strutting around like he's undefeated. I might have to start calling him Sunshine if he's going to keep looking so pretty in the locker room. He didn't exactly light it up in his first NFL start, but he kept drives alive with his feet and showed some ability to rally the team, which is really more than you can expect from a sixth-round rookie. Unfortunately, Minshew takes the helm just as Jacksonville seems to be hitting the skids. Jalen Ramsey wants out, and the defense as a whole hasn't played up to its usual standards yet, ranking 26th in points allowed and 21st in yards allowed — though they have faced a tough schedule on that front. Tennessee's popgun attack is a long way from Kansas City's, and its depleted offensive line could give the Jags pass rush a chance to get going.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: LT Taylor Lewan (out, suspension), RG Kevin Pamphile (out, knee), LB Wesley Woodyard (questionable, quad)

JAC injuries: CB A.J. Bouye (questionable, hip)

TEN DFS chalk: none

JAC DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS tournament plays: Corey Davis (JAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

JAC DFS tournament plays: Dede Westbrook (TEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: TEN's defense has allowed touchdowns on all five opposition visits to the red zone so far this season

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 TEN, average score 23-19 TEN, average margin of victory 10 points

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 12-15 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry isn't able to reproduce last year's Week 14 explosion, getting held to 60 yards, but he does score. Mariota throws for less than 200 yards. Leonard Fournette rumbles for 90 combined yards and a TD. Minshew throws for less than 200 yards as well and gets picked off twice, but he runs for 40 and hits Westbrook in the end zone. Jaguars, 14-13
 

Last week's record: 10-6, 6-10 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 20-11-1, 14-18 ATS, 21-11 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 656-395-5, 484-530-42 ATS, 387-400-13 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)