NFL Game Previews: Vikings-Bears Matchup

Minnesota at Chicago (+2.5), o/u 44.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Vikings have come out of their bye week flying, winning two straight games on the back of consecutive massive performances by Dalvin Cook, and a defense that's looked more like what you'd expect from a Mike Zimmer outfit. A return to that formula has also taken the pressure off Kirk Cousins, and he's stopped being a turnover machine — it's no coincidence that the three games in which he hasn't tossed an INT are the three in which he's had the fewest pass attempts. They'll try to make it 3-for-3 against NFC North opponents since their bye, catching the Bears as they come reeling off three straight losses. To be fair, all three came against playoff-caliber teams (the Rams, Saints and Titans), but Chicago's only win of note so far in 2020 remains that one-point squeaker at home against Tampa Bay in Week 5. Nick Foles is coming off his two most productive games of the season, but he has yet to top a 6.6 YPA in any contest since taking over from Mitchell Trubisky, a stat that just hammers home how limited the Bears passing game is even with Allen Robinson as a bona fide No. 1 receiver. The backfield is also in turmoil, with David Montgomery joining Tarik Cohen on the shelf, and they'll now have to try and patch something together from Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall, undrafted rookie free agent Artavis Pierce or maybe even Lamar Miller, if he proves he's recovered from last year's ACL tear. As per usual, it'll probably be on Khalil Mack and the boys to keep Chicago in the game, but they should be used to it by now — every Bears game so far this season, except their 24-10 loss to the Rams, has been decided by a single score.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: TE Irv Smith (out, groin), CB Cameron Dantzler (questionable, concussion)

CHI injuries: RB Montgomery (out, concussion), WR Robinson (questionable, knee), C Cody Whitehair (questionable, COVID)

MIN DFS targets: Chad Beebe $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (CHI 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS targets: Nick Foles $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (MIN 28th in QB rating against, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 29th in TD% allowed)

MIN DFS fades: Kirk Cousins $6,100 DK / $7,100 FD (CHI fourth in passing DVOA, first in TD% allowed), Adam Thielen $6,000 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is 25th in third-down conversions at 39.2 percent; CHI is first in third-down defense at 31.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 21-18 MIN, average margin of victory 11 points. CHI has won four straight meetings

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 14-16 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook bangs out 110 yards and a TD. Cousins throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Kyle Rudolph but gets picked off twice. Lamar Miller gets the surprise start and delivers 70 yards and a score. Foles throws for 260 yards and TDs to Robinson and Anthony Miller. Bears, 27-20

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Welcome to the NFC East, where every meeting from here on could have significant playoff implications only because everybody is bunched together in ineptitude, and finishing the season with a lofty record like, say, 7-9, seems out of reach for any of them. The Eagles are currently pacing the field, though, and a win would actually get them to .500. (Before you get too excited about their prospects of running away with the division crown, their upcoming schedule goes: at Cleveland, vs. Seattle, at Green Bay, vs. New Orleans, at Arizona, a stretch during which it's not hard to imagine them going 0-5). Miles Sanders could return this week to solidify the backfield, and while Carson Wentz is still short a couple options in the passing game, Travis Fulgham's continued emergence has covered for the absences. The Giants are no pushovers — they've kept things close against legit playoff teams like the Bucs and Bears — but their only wins in 2020 have come against Washington, and Daniel Jones has turned the ball over 13 times in nine games (which, granted, is a slight improvement on the 23 turnovers in 13 games he committed last year). Their defense is solid, but their offense isn't dangerous enough to keep giving away possessions — though you could say exactly the same thing about the Eagles.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: none

NYG injuries: RB Devonta Freeman (IR, ankle), WR Golden Tate (questionable, knee)

PHI DFS targets: Jalen Reagor $4,200 DK / $5,600 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS targets: Giants DST $2,700 DK / $3,900 FD (t-second in takeaways, PHI 32nd in sack rate allowed, 31st in giveaways)

PHI DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is 13th in red-zone conversions at 64.0 percent; NYG are fourth in red-zone defense at 52.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 PHI, average score 28-21 PHI, average margin of victory eight points. PHI has won 12 of the last 13, including a 22-21 victory in Week 7. Eight of the last 10 games have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, 15-16 mph wind, 5-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders gains 80 yards and a score. Wentz throws for 240 yards and TDs to Reagor and Alshon Jeffery but gets picked off twice. Wayne Gallman picks up 70 yards. Jones throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, finding Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, while also running in a score of his own. Giants, 27-24

Jacksonville (+13) at Green Bay, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If the Jets are the frontrunners for Trevor Lawrence's services, the Jaguars have now put themselves in position to win the Justin Fields sweepstakes with the second overall pick, as they're the last team standing with only one win. (Unless, of course, Adam Gase is still in charge in New York and the Jets do something dumb at No. 1, in which case, good day, Sunshine.) That still leaves the rest of the second half for Jacksonville to decide whether Gardner Minshew or Jake Luton will be the new guy's backup in 2021. Luton looked OK in his debut last week, though facing the Texans' defense wasn't exactly the toughest test. A nasty, blustery day at Lambeau Field is a different situation altogether, and with Minshew still sidelined, the rookie could be in for a long, cold afternoon, even if a banged-up Green Bay secondary has been generous at times to opposition QBs. Aaron Rodgers, of course, has plenty of experience and has had plenty of success in bad weather, and he might get Allen Lazard back as another option on the rare occasions he doesn't want to target Davante Adams. This one probably won't be close, even if the wind forces the Packers to lean more heavily on Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Minshew (out, thumb), WR Lavishka Shenault (out, hamstring), C Brandon Linder (questionable, back), S Josh Jones (questionable, chest)

GB injuries: TE Robert Tonyan (questionable, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (doubtful, concussion), CB Kevin King (questionable, quad)

JAC DFS targets: Jake Luton $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (GB 30th in QB rating against)

GB DFS targets: Aaron Rodgers $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in QB rating against, 31st in YPA allowed)

JAC DFS fades: Jaguars DST $2,000 DK / $3,100 FD (32nd in sack rate, GB second in INT% allowed, first in giveaways)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is fifth in third-down conversions at 49.5 percent; JAC is 18th in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 28-29 mph wind, 0-15 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: James Robinson piles up 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Luton throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Jones bangs out 120 yards and two TDs, while Williams adds 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 200 yards and a score to Adams. Packers, 24-9

Washington (+3.5) at Detroit, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Team With No Name sits in second place in the NFC East by virtue of having one less loss than the Giants or Cowboys, but it has yet to win a game outside the division. In fact, it hasn't come close — the average score in those four losses has been 31-16, and every one of those opponents scored at least 30 points, as compared to 23-16 in Washington's favor in the divisional contests. Keep that in mind when you hear chatter about how good Washington's defense has been. The team is turning to its third starting QB of the season in Alex Smith, and while his comeback is an inspiring story, he tossed three picks in relief of Kyle Allen last week. Dwayne Haskins might get another chance with Ron Rivera yet. In the meantime, expect a healthy dose of the running game against yet another poor Lions defense. Only the Cowboys, Seahawks, Texans and Jaguars have allowed more points per game, and only Dallas has given up more touchdowns. Matthew Stafford will be without Kenny Golladay again, but whether Golladay's been healthy or not hasn't helped Stafford be more consistent. Over the last five games, he's thrown either three TDs or one, and tossed either more than 330 yards, or less than 230, with nothing in between. Just call him the Meredith Brooks of quarterbacks, though Detroit fans probably would want it any other way if they had the choice.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Allen (out, ankle), WR Dontrelle Inman (out, hamstring), LT Geron Christian (out, knee), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, groin)

DET injuries: WR Golladay (out, hip), TE T.J. Hockenson (questionable, toe), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (questionable, foot)

WAS DFS targets: J.D. McKissic $4,900 DK / $5,300 FD (DET 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS targets: T.J. Hockenson $5,100 DK / $6,200 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: Matthew Stafford $5,800 DK / $7,300 FD (WAS first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed), Marvin Hall $3,500 DK / $4,600 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR2), Danny Amendola $3,900 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DET is 20th in red-zone conversions at 58.8 percent; WAS is eighth in red-zone defense at 56.5 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Antonio Gibson and McKissic each gain 80 combined yards and a TD, with McKissic's coming through the air. Smith throws for 220 yards and a second score to Terry McLaurin. D'Andre Swift picks up 70 yards, while Adrian Peterson runs for 50 yards and a score. Stafford throws for 270 yards and TDs to Marvin Jones and Hockenson. Lions, 30-24

Houston (+3) at Cleveland, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

There is something of a revenge game narrative running through the slate this week — don't be surprised if Aaron Rodgers gives Marcedes Lewis a red-zone look or two against the Jags, while Adrian Peterson and J.D. McKissic are each facing former employers in Detroit — but if it's going to happen for anyone, it should be Duke Johnson. The former Brown finally gets his long-awaited chance to be a starter for the Texans, even if it's only for one week, and he'll be facing a defense that, at least according to DVOA, is vulnerable to pass-catching backs. It also looks like it's going to be another awful day weather-wise day in Cleveland, so Deshaun Watson's ability to hit Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks on deep routes is likely to be affected, pushing more touches towards Johnson. Of course, the Browns still have Kareem Hunt, their ostensible upgrade on Duke, and might get Nick Chubb back this week (if the training staff wants to risk it on a day like this), so they should be well equipped for another game in which the best defender on the field is the wind and rain howling off Lake Erie.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB David Johnson (out, concussion), LG Senio Kelemete (out, concussion)

CLE injuries: none

HOU DFS targets: Duke Johnson $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD (CLE 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Randall Cobb $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (CLE 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

CLE DFS targets: Baker Mayfield $6,000 DK / $7,000 FD (HOU 32nd in QB rating against, 30th in TD% allowed), Kareem Hunt $6,700 DK / $7,500 FD (HOU 31st in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed)

HOU DFS fades: Will Fuller $6,700 DK / $7,100 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2), Texans DST $2,400 DK / $3,500 FD (32nd in INT%, t-31st in takeaways)

CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is fourth in red-zone conversions at 76.0 percent; HOU is 16th in red-zone defense at 62.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 29-30 mph wind, 30-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson pops for 110 combined yards and a TD. Watson throws for less than 200 yards but hits Cobb for a score. Hunt leads the CLE backfield with 90 combined yards and a touchdown, while Mayfield throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Jarvis Landry. Browns, 16-14 

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

What the heck was that??? Just when everyone seemed to be getting comfortable with the idea (or resigning themselves to it, depending on your perspective) that Tom Brady was at the helm of another Super Bowl contender in Tampa, they got absolutely annihilated by the Saints last week in their worst performance of the year on both sides of the ball. In fact, by QB rating, it was one of the worst performances of Brady's career, and the last time he posted a rating lower than the 40.4 he managed last week was when he tossed four INTs against Peyton Manning and the Colts in 2006. Unless it happens again though, it's probably safer to assume it was just one of those games, not just for Brady but for the whole team. That doesn't bode well for a Panthers team that's already lost to the Bucs once this season, and is currently mired in a four-game losing streak. That said, all four losses were by a single score, and losing by a field goal or less on the road in New Orleans and Kansas City is a testament to how hard Carolina is playing for Matt Rhule even as the campaign is going nowhere. Christian McCaffrey's return to action didn't last long, but Mike Davis is still around, and Curtis Samuel has gotten into the end zone four times in the last three contests. Even without CMac, the Panthers have the weapons to compete with the Bucs on offense; it's what happens on defense that will make the difference.

The Skinny

TB injuries: LG Ali Marpet (questionable, concussion), CB Carlton Davis (questionable, knee)

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (out, shoulder), LT Russell Okung (out, calf), S Jeremy Chinn (questionable, knee), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, toe)

TB DFS targets: Leonard Fournette $5,500 DK / $6,400 FD (CAR 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS targets: Ian Thomas $2,600 DK / $4,400 FD (TB 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS fades: none

CAR DFS fades: Teddy Bridgewater $6,100 DK / $7,000 FD (TB second in passing DVOA), Mike Davis $6,700 DK / $5,400 FD (TB third in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed), Robby Anderson $6,100 DK / $6,400 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: CAR is 11th in third-down conversions at 43.9 percent; TB is 17th in third-down defense at 41.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 CAR, average score 25-20 CAR, average margin of victory 10 points. TB has won three of the last four meetings, including a 31-17 victory in Week 2

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, 14-15 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Fournette leads the TB backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Ronald Jones also scores on the ground. Brady throws for 270 yards and a second touchdown to Chris Godwin. Davis manages 60 yards and a score. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting DJ Moore and Alex Armah while running in a score of his own. Panthers, 28-27

L.A. Chargers (+2.5) at Miami, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The first of two matchups this season between top rookie QBs (Miami takes on Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 13, while Justin Herbert was sadly still on the bench in Week 1 when the Chargers faced Cincinnati), Herbert comes into this one with better personal numbers but a 1-6 record as a starter, while Tua's 2-0 to begin his tenure. That probably has more to do with the coaches calling the shots than it does the young quarterbacks though. The Bolts' backfield also remains short-handed, although Kalen Ballage will get a shot at a revenge game with Justin Jackson sidelined. The Dolphins' backfield is mostly made up of Kyle Shanahan's castoffs at this point, with Salvon Ahmed (an undrafted rookie free agent who originally signed with San Francisco before getting beat out for a spot by JaMycal Hasty and winding up with Miami) joining Matt Breida as the fill-ins for Myles Gaskin. The defense can't score points every week, but Tua Tagovailoa seems ready to make things happen as he gets more comfortable under center.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RB Jackson (out, knee), RB Troymaine Pope (questionable, neck), RG Trai Turner (questionable, groin), RT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, back), DE Joey Bosa (out, concussion)

MIA injuries: RB Breida (questionable, hamstring), WR Preston Williams (IR, foot)

LAC DFS targets: Kalen Ballage $5,000 DK / $5,300 FD (MIA 28th in YPC allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS targets: Mack Hollins $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (LAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are seventh in third-down conversions at 46.6 percent; MIA is fourth in third-down defense at 34.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ballage leads the LAC backfield with 60 yards. Herbert throws for 310 yards and TDs to Keenan Allen and Joe Reed. Breida gains 80 combined yards, but Jordan Howard vultures a short touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 270 yards and TDs to Adam Shaheen and Hollins. Dolphins, 27-23

Denver (+5) at Las Vegas, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Broncos are 3-2 in their last five games, but wins against the Jets, Chargers and Patriots don't mean as much as they used to. Despite the (lack of) quality of the opposition, Drew Lock and the offense have still been putting up some strong numbers, recording at least 350 yards of total offense in four of those five games and averaging 25.8 points, well north of where they started the season. Jerry Jeudy is also coming into his own, posting an 11-198-1 line on 24 targets over the last two and firmly seizing the mantle of No. 1 receiver. The Raiders remain in the wild-card picture in the AFC, and while their own rookie wideouts have yet to make much impact, Josh Jacobs and a steady Derek Carr have kept them afloat. The defense remains a sore spot though — they're 26th in yards per play allowed, between the Jets and Texans — and aside from that windy day in Cleveland they've surrendered at least 24 points in every game. At some point, Vegas is going to need to generate some explosive plays to make up for all the ones they're giving up.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: WR Jeudy (questionable, shoulder), TE Albert Okwuegbunam (IR, knee), RT Demar Dotson (questionable, groin), CB Bryce Callahan (questionable, ankle)

LV injuries: LT Kolton Miller (doubtful, ankle), RG Gabe Jackson (questionable, illness), LB Cory Littleton (questionable, COVID)

DEN DFS targets: Phillip Lindsay $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (LV 32nd in rushing DVOA, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

LV DFS targets: Hunter Renfrow $4,200 DK / $4,900 FD (DEN 20th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DEN DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is second in third-down conversions at 51.0 percent; DEN is t-fifth in third-down defense at 37.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 18-17 LV, average margin of victory seven points. The home team has won eight straight meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Lindsay leads the DEN backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Melvin Gordon adds 70 combined yards. Lock throws for 240 yards and TDs to Jeudy and Tim Patrick. Jacobs responds with 120 combined yards and two touchdowns. Carr throws for 280 yards and scores to Renfrow and Henry Ruggs. Raiders, 31-21 

Buffalo (+2) at Arizona, o/u 56.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

If you like watching quarterbacks run, this is the game for you. Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are fourth and second in rushing attempts among QBs, sixth and first in rushing yards, and tied for third and tied for first in rushing touchdowns. Murray's numbers in the first half in particular are just ridiculous. His average game so far in 2020 has included two passing TDs and a rushing TD, and while he might fall short of breaking the record for rushing yards in a season that Lamar Jackson set last year, he's on pace to break Cam Newton's single-season rushing TD record (14 in 2011) while still rushing for over 1,000 yards and passing for over 4,000, and he's got a shot at becoming only the fourth QB in history to produce 50 TDs in a season (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes being the others). Neither defense has had much luck stopping the other team's QB on the ground either — only the Seahawks have allowed more rushing TDs to quarterbacks than the Bills, while the Cardinals are in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed. You'd think having to face their own guy in practice would help, but apparently not. A back-and-forth barn burner between these two offenses, not just between the QBs, would be no surprise at all, potentially leaving it to the defenses (and maybe the star DBs like Tre'Davious White or Budda Baker) to come up with a crucial big play to turn the tide.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: S Micah Hyde (questionable, ankle)

ARI injuries: RB Kenyan Drake (questionable, ankle), RG Justin Murray (out, hand), DE Jordan Phillips (out, hamstring), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (questionable, thigh), S Baker (questionable, groin)

BUF DFS targets: John Brown $5,300 DK / $5,600 FD (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS targets: DeAndre Hopkins $7,700 DK / $8,600 FD (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: none

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is t-fifth in red-zone conversions at 75.0 percent; BUF is 18th in red-zone defense at 63.9 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Zack Moss gains 70 yards, while Devin Singletary adds 50. Allen throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Brown and Stefon Diggs, and runs in a score of his own. Chase Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 80 yards and a TD. Murray wins both the battle and the war, throwing for 280 yards and scores to Hopkins and Dan Arnold while running for 60 yards and a TD. Cardinals, 31-30

San Francisco (+9) at New Orleans, o/u 49.0
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

At 4-5, the Niners remain stuck in the basement in the NFC West, but they're still on the fringes of the wild-card chase — it helps when an entire division is sitting that one out. Injuries keep hitting them in waves, and as of yet the latest high tide hasn't receded with Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle and most of the pass rush still sidelined. Heading to New Orleans short-handed isn't a good idea in general, but it's particularly bad timing when the Saints seem to be coming into their own. Last week's dismantling of the Bucs saw both the offense and the defense in top form, and if they can keep it up they'll have a legit claim to being the best team in the NFL. Most of their own key injured players have returned, and Kwon Alexander is set to make his Saints debut against the team that dealt him at the deadline. Now there's a revenge game narrative you can sink your teeth into.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Tevin Coleman (out, knee), WR Deebo Samuel (out, hamstring), WR Trent Taylor (questionable, back)

NO injuries: none

SF DFS targets: Brandon Aiyuk $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD (NO 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)

NO DFS targets: Tre'Quan Smith $4,200 DK / $5,000 FD (SF 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: Jerick McKinnon $5,600 DK / $5,500 FD (NO fifth in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO is first in third-down conversions at 51.4 percent; SF is 13th in third-down defense at 40.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: McKinnon manages 50 yards. Nick Mullins throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding Aiyuk and Richie James. Alvin Kamara racks up 110 combined yards and a score. Drew Brees throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Michael Thomas and Smith. Saints, 27-17

Seattle (+1.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Seahawks' defensive woes are finally costing them. After a blistering start to the year for Russell Wilson, he's been merely excellent the last few weeks, and Seattle's gone 1-2 as a result while giving up 36 points a game. The injuries in the backfield have been an issue as well, and it's likely not a coincidence that Chris Carson not being on the field, Wilson throwing multiple picks, and those two losses have all synced up. The Rams have been struggling to find their own rhythm, also losing two of their last three and not looking great doing it. They're coming off their bye and have had time to clean things up and get healthy, but the offense continues to misfire at inopportune times. Maybe getting away from the backfield committee they've been using all year and finally settling on Todd Gurley's replacement, whether it's Darrell Henderson or Cam Akers, would help. In the meantime, Jared Goff will just have to try and keep pace with Wilson if he can.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Carson (questionable, foot), RB Carlos Hyde (questionable, hamstring), C Ethan Pocic (out, concussion), LB K.J. Wright (questionable, ankle), CB Shaquill Griffin (out, hamstring), CB Quinton Dunbar (out, knee)

LAR injuries: OLB Leonard Floyd (questionable, knee)

SEA DFS targets: Tyler Lockett $6,500 DK / $7,400 FD (LAR 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS targets: Jared Goff $6,500 DK / $7,400 FD (SEA 32nd in passing yards per game allowed), Josh Reynolds $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (SEA 29th in DVOA vs. deep throws)

SEA DFS fades: Russell Wilson $7,700 DK / $8,900 FD (LAR second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, third in TD% allowed), DK Metcalf $7,600 DK / $8,300 FD (LAR first in DVOA vs. deep throws)

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is first in red-zone conversions at 86.2 percent; LAR are 15th in red-zone defense at 60.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 LAR, average score 25-20 LAR, average margin of victory 10 points. LAR have won four of the last five meetings

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Carson returns and leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 330 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and David Moore and Jacob Hollister once each. Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 80 combined yards and a score. Goff throws for 300 yards and three TDs to Cooper Kupp (who tops 100 yards), Robert Woods and Reynolds, but it's not quite enough. Seahawks 35-34

Cincinnati (+7.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

I keep seeing people talk about Joe Burrow's "great" rookie season, and while his numbers do look very good on the surface and his future is bright, a little context is necessary in offense-happy 2020. The kid is third in the league in pass attempts, but his 67.0 percent completion rate (which, on its own, seems great!) is only 18th. It would have been good for second to Steve Young's 67.7 percent in 1996, the year Burrow was born. His 6.9 YPA is 25th; his 3.3 percent TD rate is 28th. Again, I don't want to take anything away from his upside. Burrow looks like the real deal. In terms of his performance right now though, volume and not efficiency is what's keeping him afloat. That's bad news heading into a game against one of the toughest defenses in the league, and one which has utterly owned the Bengals in recent years. The undefeated Steelers seemed to view last week's game against the Cowboys like a bye week and it nearly cost them, but they put their foot on the gas when they needed to in order to pull away, and they're not likely to take an AFC North rivalry game as lightly. Since 2010, Ben Roethlisberger is 14-3 against Cincinnati with his last loss coming in Week 8 of 2015, and while he typically hasn't had to post big numbers in this rivalry with Pittsburgh's defense and running game doing the heavy lifting, he can still fling it when he has to. He's on pace to fall short of 4,000 yards over a full 16-game season for the first time since 2008, but he's also on pace for a career-high 36 TDs, having thrown multiple scores in every game but one so far. Going four deep with receivers the other team's defense has to account for, before they've even gotten around to deciding what to do with Eric Ebron or James Conner, can do wonders for your touchdown totals.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (doubtful, foot), LT Jonah Williams (questionable, neck), RT Bobby Hart (out, knee), CB LeShaun Sims (out, concussion)

PIT injuries: none

CIN DFS targets: A.J. Green $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

PIT DFS targets: James Conner $6,900 DK / $7,600 FD (CIN 32nd in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed), Steelers DST $4,400 DK / $5,000 FD (first in sack rate, third in INT%, t-second in takeaways)

CIN DFS fades: Joe Burrow $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (PIT third in passing DVOA, second in QB rating against), Giovani Bernard $5,400 DK / $6,200 FD (PIT fourth in rushing DVOA, t-first in rushing TDs allowed), Drew Sample $2,700 DK / $4,400 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT is sixth in third-down conversions at 48.2 percent; CIN is 29th in third-down defense at 48.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 10-1 PIT, average score 23-15 PIT, average margin of victory eight points. PIT has won 10 straight meetings and 13 of the last 14

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 16-18 mph wind, 0-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Bernard picks up 70 scrimmage yards. Burrow throws for 260 yards and TDs to Green and Tee Higgins but gets picked off twice, one of which Terrell Edmunds returns to the house. Conner piles up 120 yards and a touchdown. Roethlisberger throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Steelers, 31-17

Baltimore at New England (+7), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The undercard to the Kyler Murray-Josh Allen track meet earlier in the day is this clash between Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton, though I guess technically, this one goes off later so it's the main event. The Ravens rebounded as expected from their loss to the Steelers in Week 8, man-handling the Colts in Indianapolis, but it's clear this team isn't feeling it the way it did last year. Baltimore still leads the league in rushing offense, but their 170.1 yards per game more than 35 yards less than their 2019 average, and they're scoring nearly five points less a game. The issue seems traceable to the offensive line — after getting sacked 23 times all of last year, Lamar Jackson has already been brought down 21 times through eight games in 2020 – and the loss of Ronnie Stanley at left tackle will only exacerbate the problem. Fortunately, this week they're facing a team with issues all over the roster, as the Patriots are a shell of their former selves even after you account for Tom Brady's defection. The offense's troubles are well known at this point, but the defense has mostly been coasting on its reputation rather than actually helping right the ship. The Pats sit 28th in yards per play allowed, somehow only barely ahead of the Seahawks (6.16 to 6.19), and the only thing in their favor is that they haven't had to be on the field much, sitting first in offensive plays against. That's one benefit to not having any kind of consistent passing attack and being forced to grind out long drives on the ground, I suppose. It's not a game plan that seems likely to succeed against a Baltimore team that does it much, much better, even if it hasn't quite hit the dizzying peak it reached in 2019, but if the game hinges on a sloppy turnover or two in wet conditions, they might have a chance.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Mark Ingram (questionable, ankle), DE Calais Campbell (out, calf), OLB Matt Judon (questionable, calf), CB Jimmy Smith (doubtful, ankle)

NE injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, chest), WR N'Keal Harry (questionable, concussion), LG Joe Thuney (questionable, ankle), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, groin), CB Stephon Gilmore (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: J.K. Dobbins $5,200 DK / $5,400 FD (NE 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Marquise Brown $5,700 DK / $5,700 FD (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS targets: Patriots DST $2,400 DK / $4,100 FD (first in INT%, BAL 30th in sack rate allowed)

BAL DFS fades: Mark Andrews $4,600 DK / $6,400 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. TE)

NE DFS fades: Cam Newton $5,600 DK / $7,700 FD (BAL second in YPA allowed, second in TD% allowed), Damien Harris $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (BAL first in rushing DVOA), Damiere Byrd $3,300 DK / $5,400 FD (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: NE is 16th in third-down conversions at 42.9 percent; BAL is second in third-down defense at 32.3 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 15-19 mph wind, 35-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dobbins picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a TD to Brown while also running for 40 yards and a score. Rex Burkhead leads the NE backfield with 60 scrimmage yards. Newton throws for less than 200 yards but does run for a TD. Ravens, 24-13

Indianapolis (+2) at Tennessee, o/u 48.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

These two teams figure to slug it out in the second half for the AFC South crown, so whoever wins this first meeting will have a big edge in that battle. The Colts are coming off a thumping at the hands of the Ravens, while they are firmly in the AFC playoff picture with five wins, only one of them has come against a team currently sporting a winning record (a lackluster 19-11 victory in Chicago in Week 4). Philip Rivers has been feast or famine lately, throwing for either three TDs or zero in each of his last four games, but his overall 6:4 TD:INT and 7.2 YPA during that stretch aren't impressive. The running game also remains sluggish, as every time Jonathan Taylor seems like he might break out of the committee, he gets hurt or commits a key fumble and loses touches to the thoroughly underwhelming Jordan Wilkins. The Titans rebounded last week from consecutive losses with a 24-17 victory over, hmm, the Bears, but they also have a Week 5 rout of the Bills on their resume. The offense continues to flow through Derrick Henry, which could be a problem against what has been one of the toughest run defenses in the league, but Ryan Tannehill's play-action magic has also resulted in multiple TD passes in five consecutive games and seven of eight on the year. Indy's defense has put up great numbers in 2020, but Tennessee's offense has rarely stumbled since Tannehill took over, as a 31-17 win over the Colts in Week 13 last year can attest.

The Skinny

IND injuries: TE Jack Doyle (out, concussion), TE Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee)

TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, concussion), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, knee)

IND DFS targets: Mo Alie-Cox $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (TEN 29th in DVOA vs. TE) 

TEN DFS targets: Cameron Batson $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (IND 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3)

IND DFS fades: none

TEN DFS fades: Ryan Tannehill $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (IND fifth in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against), Derrick Henry $7,700 DK / $8,600 FD (IND second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, third in rushing yards per game allowed), Corey Davis $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (IND first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: TEN is second in red-zone conversions at 80.0 percent; IND is t-19th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 IND, average score 27-23 IND, average margin of victory 10 points. Three of the last four meetings, and four of the last six, have been decided by 14 or more points

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor leads the IND backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Rivers throws for 250 yards and a TD to Alie-Cox. Henry hammers out 70 yards and a score as well. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding A.J. Brown and Batson. Titans, 24-20

Last week's record: 8-6, 6-8 ATS, 6-8 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 81-51-1, 67-64-2 ATS, 55-75-3 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 874-533-6, 660-701-52 ATS, 548-586-23 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)