NFL Game Previews: Lions-Packers Matchup

Detroit (+11) at Green Bay, o/u 48.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The NFC North was the only division in the league to go winless in Week 1, and these two were the biggest culprits. The Lions were a disaster for most of their loss to the 49ers before mounting a desperate, late comeback that fell short, but I'm sure new coach Dan Campbell is happy they went down swinging. Jared Goff posted very good numbers due to volume, but his lack of reliable targets outside of T.J. Hockenson showed in his 5.9 YPA. That could well wind up being the blueprint for his season, as things don't seem likely to get better for a team in strong contention to land a pick that will let them draft Goff's replacement in 2022. The less said about the Packers' opener, the better. Did they think it was a preseason game? Aaron Rodgers was awful, but he wasn't the only one who no-showed. The roster is too talented to think that will continue, and the Packers taking out their frustrations on the Lions in prime time is by far the most likely scenario, unless something is very wrong in the Green Bay locker room.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), RB Jamaal Williams (questionable, chest), WR Tyrell Williams (questionable, concussion), LT Taylor Decker (IR, finger), OLB Romeo Okwara (questionable, shoulder), CB Jeff Okudah (IR, Achilles)

GB injuries: LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LG Lucas Patrick (questionable, concussion), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), S Darnell Savage (questionable, shoulder)

DET DFS targets: Swift $7,100 DK / $6,700 FD (GB 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

GB DFS targets: Rodgers $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD (DET 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in TD% allowed in 2020), Davante Adams $8,300 DK / $8,300 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

DET DFS fades: Amon-Ra St. Brown $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (GB sixth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Lions DEF $2,700 DK / $3,000 FD (GB first in giveaways, first in points per game in 2020)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB was first in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 80.0 percent; DET was 31st in red-zone defense at 72.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 GB, average score 27-24 DET, average margin of victory 12 points. GB has won four straight meetings by an average score of 30-22

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, 16-18 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Swift leads the DET backfield with 70 scrimmage yards, but Williams hauls in a TD pass (revenge game!). Goff throws for 260 yards and gets picked off twice. Aaron Jones erupts for 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while AJ Dillon bangs out 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 350 yards and three TDs, hitting Adams (who tops 100 yards) twice and Marquez Valdes-Scantling once. Packers 41-10

New England at N.Y. Jets (+5.5), o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Two rookie quarterbacks, two 0-1 starts. The Patriots still have Bill Belichick, so you can't rule them out just yet, but after trying to make do with Cam Newton last season the future Hall of Fame coach has committed to rebuilding the offense around Mac Jones, and the 2021 15th overall pick looked the part in New England's opener. In fact, if not for a Damien Harris fumble, Jones might have led a fourth-quarter comeback. Zach Wilson, the second overall pick, had a nervous beginning to his NFL career but ultimately wasn't the problem either in the Jets' Week 1 loss to the Panthers — it's the roster around him that needs a lot of work. The young QB showed nice early chemistry with Corey Davis, and given how many deficits the team is likely to be climbing out of this season, the former Titan could be headed for a career year. Coach Robert Saleh is also trying to repeat the successful backfield formula he watched Kyle Shanahan deploy in San Francisco, but he doesn't have the RB talent or the offensive line to pull it off. This matchup leans favorable on paper, as the Pats' run defense had some issues last year, but until Saleh decides to trust one back enough to give them a decent workload, it's hard to imagine any of them really popping.

The Skinny

NE injuries: TE Jonnu Smith (questionable, hip), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, quadriceps)

NYJ injuries: WR Jamison Crowder (questionable, groin), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee)

NE DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers $5,100 DK / $5,500 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

NYJ DFS targets: Tevin Coleman $4,700 DK / $5,000 FD and Ty Johnson $4,500 DK / $4,700 FD and Michael Carter $4,100 DK / $4,900 FD (NE 32nd in rushing DVOA, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

NE DFS fades: Harris $5,400 DK / $6,200 FD (NYJ eighth in rushing DVOA in 2020)

NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ was 32nd in third-down conversions in 2020 at 34.0 percent; NE was 16th in third-down defense at 40.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 10-0 NE, average score 30-11 NE, average margin of victory 19 points. NE has won 10 straight and 13 of the last 14 meetings, with the lone NYJ win coming in Week 16 of the 2015 season

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris manages 50 yards, but James White leads the NE backfield with 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Jones throws for 280 yards and two more TDs, finding Meyers and Hunter Henry. Johnson leads the NYJ backfield with 60 yards. Wilson throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Davis and Tyler Kroft. New England 24-20

Denver at Jacksonville (+6), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Teddy Bridgewater's Denver debut went pretty well. The anti-Drew Lock completed a lot of short passes and let his talented group of targets do the heavy lifting, a plan which led to a win. The Broncos did lose Jerry Jeudy to an ankle injury for a month or more, but the roster still has a strong group of wideouts and tight ends even without last year's first-round pick. Von Miller also kicked off his campaign with two sacks, and if the Denver pass rush is back in form, there will be less pressure on Bridgewater to light it up. It's always easier to be a bus driver when the bus is allowed to go slower than 50 mph. As for the Jags ... yeesh. Trevor Lawrence had his moments but it already seems like he feels he has to win games single-handedly (he might not be wrong), while Urban Meyer somehow thought it was a good idea to give Carlos Hyde more touches than James Robinson, and the defense under new coordinator Joe Cullen managed to make Tyrod Taylor look like Deshaun Watson. Atlanta and Detroit staked pretty good early claims to being the league's doormats, and you can't rule out Houston's Week 1 win being the only one it collects all year, but Jacksonville seems like the leader out of the gate to once again be drafting first overall in 2022.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: WR Jeudy (IR, ankle), RG Graham Glasgow (doubtful, chest), OLB Bradley Chubb (questionable, ankle)

JAC injuries: none

DEN DFS targets: Bridgewater $5,400 DK / $7,000 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed, 30th in TD% allowed in 2020), Noah Fant $4,200 DK / $5,700 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

JAC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC was 16th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 60.0 percent; DEN was first in red-zone defense at 47.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon racks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and TDs to Courtland Sutton and Fant. Robinson leads the JAC backfield with 60 yards. Lawrence throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to DJ Chark (who tops 100 yards) and Laviska Shenault, but a Hyde fumble results in an Alexander Johnson TD return to the house. Denver 28-20

Buffalo at Miami (+3.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Week 1 did not go according to plan for the Bills. Josh Allen and the offense couldn't really get going against the Steelers defense, and some bad breaks — including a blocked punt deep in their own zone that turned into a Pittsburgh TD — proved to be the difference in a close game. There doesn't seem to be much to worry about in the long run, but an 0-2 start would mean Miami is 2-0, and that could be a tough hill to climb the rest of the way. In short, while this isn't a must-win game for Buffalo by any means, it has an awful lot of incentive not to lose. The Dolphins are coming off a nervous victory in New England, and they did it with timely big plays on both sides of the ball. Tua Tagovailoa didn't exactly quiet any of his critics, though, and while Will Fuller isn't quite ready to join Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker in a dynamic receiving corps, once he does the young QB is going to rapidly run out of excuses if he can't put together a breakout season. The defense, and particularly the secondary, is strong enough to lead the team to the postseason even if the offense is merely adequate, but getting more help on the scoreboard would change Miami from "playoff contender" to "Super Bowl contender."

The Skinny

BUF injuries: WR Gabriel Davis (questionable, ankle)

MIA injuries: WR Will Fuller (out, personal)

BUF DFS targets: none

MIA DFS targets: Parker $5,500 DK / $5,800 FD (BUF 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

BUF DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: Fuller $4,800 DK / $5,700 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Waddle $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: BUF was first in third-down conversions in 2020 at 49.7 percent; MIA was first in third-down defense at 31.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 BUF, average score 32-23 BUF, average margin of victory 11 points. BUF has won five straight meetings by an average score of 39-22

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 80s, 9-10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devin Singletary gains 70 yards and a receiving touchdown. Allen throws for 310 yards and a second TD to Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards) while running in a score of his own. Myles Gaskin manages 90 combined yards, but Malcolm Brown vultures a TD. Tua throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Parker and Mike Gesicki. Buffalo 30-24

San Francisco at Philadelphia (+3.5), o/u 50.0
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

OK, I'm going to drop into lecture mode for a minute here, because I think a lot of fantasy folks, players and experts alike are making a big mistake with the Niners backfield. If I have one rule about sleepers in fantasy leagues, it's not to give up on them too early — a rule that got reinforced in dramatic fashion in 2020 by Justin Jefferson, who only had a 5-60-0 on six targets through his first two games last year. This year, Trey Sermon spent most of the preseason being the clear upside option among San Francisco's backs while drawing glowing praise from the coaching staff, and if you invested in him you did so knowing that his best path to value lay in an injury to Raheem Mostert. Well, Mostert got hurt in Week 1 and is gone for the year ... and Sermon is already being dismissed as yesterday's news, even though the exact scenario he needed for a breakout has come to pass. OK, sure, he was inactive for the opener — because he doesn't have a spot on special teams, and Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty do, and the gameday roster only had room for three RBs. Mitchell's big game against a weak Lions defense absolutely complicates the picture, and maybe he's about to become the new Mostert as a guy with speed who shows up out of the blue and is exactly what Kyle Shanahan is looking for, but he could also be the new Matt Breida, or even the new Tevin Coleman, who did very little for the 49ers after his one huge game Week 8 in 2019. (Frankly, Mitchell's combo of straight-line speed, upright running style and lack of lateral agility is somewhat reminiscent of Coleman's profile coming out of college, though in a smaller frame). I still believe Sermon is the best play in this backfield for the rest of the season with Mostert gone, and there are much better odds than some people seem to be granting that he's the better play even in Week 2 now that he's getting his chance. If you need extra convincing, the coaches are back to saying all the right things about the third-round pick, so if Shanahan was trying to send a message to a guy he traded up to get, it seems that message was received.

Anyway. The Niners romped all over the Lions last week but forgot the game was 60 minutes and almost let them back into it, so I would expect them to maintain their focus through four quarters this week. The Eagles also romped all over the Falcons and didn't let up, but it's still hard to tell whether they really are vastly improved from last season, or whether Atlanta is just one of the league's doormats in 2021, or whether it was some combination of the two. Jalen Hurts looked fantastic as a passer and a healthier offensive line gave him plenty of time, but containing Nick Bosa and company should be a bit more of a challenge. Then again, containing Hurts if his blocking does break down could be just as big a challenge.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Mostert (IR, knee), RB Jeff Wilson (out, knee), DT Javon Kinlaw (questionable, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, groin), CB Jason Verrett (IR, knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (doubtful, knee)

PHI injuries: S Rodney McLeod (out, knee)

SF DFS targets: Deebo Samuel $6,700 DK / $6,900 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Brandon Aiyuk $5,500 DK / $5,900 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), 49ers DEF $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD (PHI 32nd in sacks allowed, 30th in giveaways in 2020)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts $6,500 DK / $7,800 FD (SF 31st in rushing yards allowed to QB in 2020)

SF DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: DeVonta Smith $5,400 DK / $5,600 FD (SF first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Dallas Goedert $4,600 DK / $5,800 FD and Ertz $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

Key stat: PHI was 28th in third-down conversions in 2020 at 37.3 percent; SF was fourth in third-down defense at 35.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sermon leads the SF backfield with 100 yards and a score, while Mitchell gains 50 yards. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 280 yards and TDs to Samuel and Kittle, while Trey Lance runs in a short touchdown. Miles Sanders picks up 70 yards. Hurts throws for 250 yards and a score to Jalen Reagor while running for 40 yards and a TD, but he also gets picked off twice and fumbles once. 49ers 31-17

L.A. Rams at Indianapolis (+4), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

As expected, the Rams had little trouble handling the Bears. Matthew Stafford posted the kind of numbers he got used to posting in Detroit while attempting desperate comebacks, but this time his defense held the opposition to a measly 14 points — talk about culture shock. If there was a surprise from their Week 1 win it was that Darrell Henderson got treated like a workhorse, though that could be a product of Sony Michel still learning the nuances of the playbook. There's a decent chance he's only going to take on Malcolm Brown's old role, though, rather than really challenging Henderson for the top spot. The Colts also trotted out a new QB that put up the kind of numbers he was accustomed to in his old uniform, but in Carson Wentz's case, that's not a good thing. If you want to look on the bright side, it's that last week's performance might represent his floor given his lack of a preseason, and the Colts don't really need him to be great once Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line get rolling. Still, Indy has a tough early schedule (after facing Seattle last week, their next three tilts are against Tennessee, Miami and Baltimore) and can't afford a sluggish start to the season. The AFC South sets up to be a two-horse race in 2021, and falling a couple games behind the Titans before Hallowe'en would probably be a bad idea.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: none

IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (IR, neck), WR Michael Pittman (questionable, ankle), WR Parris Campbell (questionable, abdomen), LT Eric Fisher (questionable, Achilles), LG Quenton Nelson (questionable, foot), RT Braden Smith (out, foot), CB Xavier Rhodes (out, calf), S Khari Willis (questionable, illness)

LAR DFS targets: none

IND DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Darrell Henderson $5,700 DK / $6,400 FD (IND second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

IND DFS fades: Carson Wentz $5,200 DK / $6,700 FD (LAR fourth in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in TD% allowed in 2020), Jonathan Taylor $7,200 DK / $7,200 FD (LAR third in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed, third in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020), Parris Campbell $3,600 DK / $4,900 FD (LAR first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

Key stat: IND was t-21st in third-down conversions in 2020 at 39.6 percent; LAR were third in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Henderson manages 60 yards. Stafford throws for 290 yards and two TDs, hitting Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. Taylor grinds out 80 yards and a score. Wentz throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns of his own, finding Zach Pascal and Mo Alie-Cox, but he also tosses two costly picks. Rams 23-21

Las Vegas (+5.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If you didn't watch last Monday's game, you owe it to yourself to at least go watch the overtime, which might as well have been the fourth Hangover movie. The Raiders somehow came away with the win, which now leaves them physically and emotionally drained on a short week heading to Pittsburgh. That should end well. The Derek Carr-Darren Waller connection remains intact, but the Vegas passing game got some big contributions from its second-year receivers, giving some hope that this can be the kind of offense capable of keeping up with the Mahomeses and Herberts. The Steelers stole a win in Buffalo in their opener, needing a blocked punt return TD to do it, but they still look like a house of cards to me. Ben Roethlisberger looks like a guy closing fast on 40 years old (and not 40 in Brady years, either) and Najee Harris didn't look like a guy who can overcome the poor offensive line play he's going to be routinely seeing in front of him. The pieces are still here for this to be a playoff team — I mean, you can't start a season 11-0 like they did last year entirely by accident — but they're the third-best team in their own division, which means they'll need to keep having fortune smile on them to put together a playoff run.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (out, toe), LG Richie Incognito (out, calf), DE Yannick Ngakoue (questionable, hamstring)

PIT injuries: LB Devin Bush (questionable, groin), CB Joe Haden (questionable, groin)

LV DFS targets: Bryan Edwards $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (PIT 24th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

PIT DFS targets: Diontae Johnson $6,400 DK / $6,600 FD (LV 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Steelers DEF $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (first in sacks, second in takeaways, third in points per game allowed in 2020)

LV DFS fades: Derek Carr $5,300 DK / $6,500 FD (PIT first in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed in 2020), Hunter Renfrow $3,600 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Darren Waller $7,600 DK / $7,000 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV was t-23rd in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 54.2 percent; PIT was sixth in red-zone defense at 55.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake picks up 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Carr throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Edwards but also gets sacked for a safety by T.J. Watt. Harris bangs out 80 yards and a score. Big Ben throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Johnson and Chase Claypool. Steelers 26-17

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Chicago, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If you're a fan of narratives, it's easy to look at Cincy's overtime win over the Vikings as the dawn of a new era. Joe Burrow was sharp, Ja'Marr Chase was dynamic and the defense held its own. Minnesota's got some issues that make the win perhaps a little less impressive, but it was still a game prior incarnations of the Bengals would have given away. They now get another solid test in a road clash with the Bears, a squad that's also flawed but dangerous. Chicago's defense remains at least good, if not great, and the offense has some pieces in place, including David Montgomery, who's rapidly moving into "most underrated player in the league" territory. Behind an offensive line that can charitably be described as "unproven," he ran for more than 100 yards against the Rams — the first back to hit the century mark against them since Week 15 of 2019. The Bengals were able to somewhat contain Dalvin Cook last week, so Montgomery isn't guaranteed another big performance, and the key to his long-term success might depend on how quickly coach Matt Nagy is willing to put Justin Fields under center on a full-time basis and give defenses something else to worry about. It's clear Andy Dalton is not that thing — he was predictably poor against the Rams, and while a revenge game for the veteran QB is theoretically on the table, it seems more likely he'll show why the Cincy front office made the right choice in letting him go.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: CB Trae Waynes (out, hamstring)

CHI injuries: RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, back), LT Jason Peters (questionable, quadriceps), OLB Robert Quinn (questionable, back)

CIN DFS targets: Tyler Boyd $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CHI DFS targets: Montgomery $6,100 DK / $7,300 FD (CIN 31st in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $7,000 DK / $7,800 FD (CHI fourth in rushing DVOA, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Tee Higgins $5,400 DK / $6,000 FD (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Bengals DEF $2,900 DK / $3,600 FD (32nd in sacks, t-28th in takeaways in 2020)

CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN was t-29th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 50.0 percent; CHI was fifth in red-zone defense at 54.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon cobbles together 60 yards. Burrow throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Boyd and C.J. Uzomah. Montgomery jets for 110 combined yards and a score. Dalton struggles and airmails a pick-six to Jessie Bates, but Fields takes over in the second half and leads a comeback, firing the winning TD to Allen Robinson in the fourth quarter. Bears 23-21

Houston (+12.5) at Cleveland, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Imagine the kind of numbers Tyrod Taylor might have put up last week if the Jags had kept it close. The veteran QB hasn't had a regular starting gig since 2017, but barring another wayward pain-killer injection, he seems locked into the No. 1 role for Houston this year. There isn't a whole lot of talent around him aside from Brandin Cooks and the three ... oops, four-headed backfield committee (sorry we all forgot you existed, Rex Burkhead) though, and he won't be facing Jacksonville every week, so that performance could end up being his high-water mark. The Browns came up short in Kansas City, but there's no shame in that. They arguably looked better in defeat than the Steelers did in victory, and Cleveland still seems like the class of the AFC North. A clash with one of last year's worst run defenses bodes well for a team that likes nothing more than cramming Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt down another team's throat over and over and over again, and it'll give Odell Beckham another week of recovery in which he isn't really needed.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (inactive, reasons), TE Pharaoh Brown (questionable, shoulder), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (IR, leg)

CLE injuries: WR Beckham (out, knee), WR Anthony Schwartz (questionable, knee), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, ankle), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Anthony Walker (IR, hamstring)

HOU DFS targets: Anthony Miller $3,300 DK / $4,500 FD (CLE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CLE DFS targets: Baker Mayfield $6,000 DK / $7,100 FD (HOU 29th in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed in 2020), Chubb $7,800 DK / $8,400 FD and Hunt $5,800 DK / $5,700 FD (HOU 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Jarvis Landry $6,300 DK / $6,800 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Donovan Peoples-Jones $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), David Njoku $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD and Austin Hooper $3,800 DK / $5,200 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

HOU DFS fades: none

CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE was seventh in third-down conversions in 2020 at 44.9 percent; HOU was 29th in third-down defense at 47.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: David Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 60 combined yards, while Phillip Lindsay adds 50 yards and a score. Taylor throws for 260 yards and TDs to Cooks and Miller. Chubb rumbles for 140 yards and two touchdowns, while Hunt chips in 50 yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two scores of his own, finding Peoples-Jones and Hooper. Browns 41-24

New Orleans at Carolina (+3), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Maybe the Saints won't miss Drew Brees too badly after all. Jameis Winston looked like Famous Jameis rather than Aimless Jameis in that dismantling of the Packers, but it seems unlikely he'll catch any opponent that flat-footed again. If he is back in 5,100-yard, 33-TD form but not 30-INT form, this is going to be a very hard offense to slow down, especially if Michael Thomas is back and 100 percent in the second half. There's no clever rhyming nicknames for Sam Darnold, but he gained a bit of redemption too last week, against the team that dumped him in the offseason. The Panthers are always going to run through Christian McCaffrey as long as he's healthy, and the showdown between him and Alvin Kamara this week — the two most dynamic three-down backfield threats in the league — could be the most entertaining matchup on this week's slate, but if Darnold can find DJ Moore and Robby Anderson often enough to keep defenses from loading the box against CMac on every single play, Carolina has some sneaky playoff potential.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Thomas (IR, ankle/COVID-19), WR Tre'Quan Smith (IR, hamstring), C Erik McCoy (out, calf), K Wil Lutz (IR, abdomen), LB Kwon Alexander (IR, elbow), CB Marshon Lattimore (questionable, hand)

CAR injuries: CB A.J. Bouye (out, suspension)

NO DFS targets: Saints DEF $3,100 DK / $4,300 FD (t-3rd in takeaways, t-5th in points per game allowed in 2020)

CAR DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none

CAR DFS fades: McCaffrey $9,900 DK / $10,000 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, fourth in YPC allowed, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Dan Arnold $2,900 DK / $4,400 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

Key stat: NO was fifth in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 72.1 percent; CAR was 21st in red-zone defense at 63.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-2 NO including playoffs, average score 29-21 NO, average margin of victory 12 points. NO has won four straight meetings in Carolina by an average score of 30-10 

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a TD. Winston has a much quieter week, throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Marquez Callaway. McCaffrey responds with 80 combined yards. Darnold throws for 210 yards and a score to Terrace Marshall. Saints 23-13

Minnesota (+4) at Arizona, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

In 2020 the Vikings had their first losing record since 2014, Mike Zimmer's first year as head coach. Maybe they should have taken the hint in the offseason. Minnesota did not look great in an OT loss to the Bengals. as the defense and the offensive line both struggled at times, and just like they did last year, injuries are already mounting. There's still a ton of skill talent here in Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Kirk Cousins, but as the supporting cast erodes it's all they can do to keep the team afloat. The Cardinals, on the other hand, looked like world-beaters against the Titans, as Kyler Murray seemed unstoppable and the defense seemed energized. So why the heck am I giving the win to the Vikes? Well, two reasons. One, I'm just plugging numbers into a formula and seeing what gets spat out the other end, and those numbers are still mainly coming from 2020. Two, Arizona's corners are terrible. On paper, Robert Alford (who slid in after Malcolm Butler decided to retire) and Byron Murphy might be the worst starting duo in the league, and now they have to try and contain Thielen and Jefferson, one of the league's elite wideout tandems. The fact that Ryan Tannehill and new Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing couldn't fully exploit that vulnerability last week doesn't mean Cousins and new Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will fail to do so this week.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: LT Christian Darrisaw (out, groin), DE Everson Griffen (out, concussion), LB Anthony Barr (out, knee), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, quadriceps)

ARI injuries: RT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ribs)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $9,100 DK / $9,200 FD (ARI 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

ARI DFS targets: DeAndre Hopkins $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

MIN DFS fades: none

ARI DFS fades: Kyler Murray $8,200 DK / $8,700 FD (MIN third rushing yards allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed to QB in 2020)

Key stat: ARI was t-21st in third-down conversions in 2020 at 39.6 percent; MIN was t-10th in third-down defense at 39.5 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Cook bangs out 100 combined yards and a TD. Cousins throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Jefferson twice and Thielen (who tops 100 yards) once. James Conner leads the ARI backfield with 80 yards, while Chase Edmonds adds 60 scrimmage yards. Murray has another strong performance, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Hopkins and Rondale Moore while running in a score of his own, but it's not quite enough. Vikings 28-27

Atlanta (+13) at Tampa Bay, o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Umm, OK, wow. That was really bad. The Falcons were an absolute mess in Week 1, getting blown out by the Eagles and just generally looking like they weren't ready for the season to begin. It's hard to wrap my head around the idea that a roster with Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Grady Jarrett, etc.. could be the worst team in the NFL, but that might just be where it's headed in 2021, especially if new coach Arthur Smith is as in over his head as he seemed last week. The Bucs, on the other hand, didn't miss a beat as they look to repeat as champs, surviving a scare from the Cowboys in the season opener and now getting 10 days to prepare for a team that looked like it might only need a short afternoon of whiteboard work to prepare for. As in any Tampa Bay game, the big question is who is going to get the short end of the stick in terms of production — last week it was Mike Evans and the backfield, but this week it could be Rob Gronkowski or Chris Godwin. Unless Tom Brady just throws it 70 times a game, which he probably could do if he wanted, there just won't be enough touches to go around for everyone in any particular four quarters.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: none

TB injuries: CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow)

ATL DFS targets: Kyle Pitts $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

TB DFS targets: Evans $6,100 DK / $6,700 FD (ATL 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Godwin $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD (ATL 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

ATL DFS fades: Mike Davis $5,500 DK / $5,500 FD (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Olamide Zaccheaus $3,200 DK / $4,500 FD (TB first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB was seventh in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 68.9 percent; ATL was 25th in red-zone defense at 64.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 ATL, average score 30-29 ATL, average margin of victory nine points

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mike Davis manages 40 yards. Ryan throws for 250 yards and TDs to Pitts and Ridley. Ronald Jones leads the TB backfield with 80 yards, while Leonard Fournette scores. Brady throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, finding Evans (who tops 100 yards) twice and Godwin once. Buccaneers 31-20

Tennessee (+5.5) at Seattle, o/u 54.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

While it wasn't a big surprise that the Titans' defensive struggles from the second half of 2020 carried over to this year, it was a bit of a shocker that they forgot how to score. I mean they literally forget how to do it — the team that thrived on getting defenses to sell out to stop Derrick Henry and then burning them in play-action ran play-action on five percent of its snaps in Week 1. OC Todd Downing made excuses about falling behind the chains, blah blah blah, but c'mon now. Hopefully Downing has learned his lesson about fixing what ain't broke. He better — Russell Wilson torched a superior Colts defense for four TDs in Seattle's opener, and there's no reason to think he'll turn down the burners in this one. (Or is Let Russ Cook more of a barbecue thing?) Tyler Lockett was the big winner in Week 1, but DK Metcalf will get his too, and the Seahawks have secondary targets who will get spillover production as well when everything is clicking.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: TE Anthony Firkser (questionable, knee), ILB Jayon Brown (questionable, hamstring), OLB Bud Dupree (questionable, knee), CB Caleb Farley (questionable, shoulder)

SEA injuries: LG Damien Lewis (questionable, groin), C Ethan Pocic (IR, knee), CB D.J. Reed (questionable, calf)

TEN DFS targets: none

SEA DFS targets: Gerald Everett $3,600 DK / $5,000 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

TEN DFS fades: Henry $8,300 DK / $8,000 FD (SEA seventh in rushing DVOA, fifth in YPC allowed, fifth in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

SEA DFS fades: Seahawks DEF $3,000 DK / $3,700 FD (TEN second in giveaways, fourth in points per game in 2020)

Key stat: SEA was fourth in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 73.2 percent; TEN was 30th in red-zone defense at 69.2 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 45-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry thumps out 70 yards. Ryan Tannehill throws for 280 yards and three TDs, finding A.J. Brown (who tops 100 yards) twice and Josh Reynolds once. Chris Carson racks up 90 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns of his own, hitting Metcalf, Lockett and Everett. Seahawks 34-27

Dallas (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Why does anyone listen to Adam Schefter again? The start of Dak Prescott's 2021 looked an awful lot like the start of his 2020, as he chucked it around an absurd amount in a futile attempt to overcome his team's terrible defense, winding up with an equally absurd 403 passing yards and three TDs in his first game action of any kind in 11 months. Gosh, Adam, imagine what he could do if he were 100 percent healthy. Unfortunately, the script for Dallas' 2021 campaign also has a strong sense of deja vu hanging over it — right tackle La'el Collins is now out for a while after getting popped for PED use, and injuries are piling up elsewhere on the roster. Sounds like more shootouts are on their way. The Chargers are more than capable of holding up their end of that bargain, as Justin Herbert came through with a big game on the road in Week 1 against a tough Washington defense. Like Prescott, he's got two main downfield targets and a three-down weapon in the backfield, but the difference between the clubs is that the Bolts have, like, an actual pass rush and stuff too.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: WR Michael Gallup (IR, calf), RT Collins (out, suspension), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), DE Randy Gregory (doubtful, COVID-19), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, groin)

LAC injuries: RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), CB Chris Harris (out, shoulder)

DAL DFS targets: CeeDee Lamb $6,400 DK / $6,800 FD (LAC 27th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

LAC DFS targets: Austin Ekeler $7,300 DK / $7,000 FD (DAL 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed), Mike Williams $6,100 DK / $5,600 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Jared Cook $3,900 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. 2020)

DAL DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC were ninth in third-down conversions in 2020 at 44.2 percent; DAL was 26th in third-down defense at 46.9 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Ezekiel Elliott puts together 80 yards. Prescott throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Lamb (who tops 100 yards) twice and (flips coin for tight end) Dalton Schultz once. Austin Ekeler responds with 120 combined yards and a score. Herbert throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns of his own, one each to Keenan Allen, Cook and Williams. Chargers 31-27

Kansas City at Baltimore (+3.5), o/u 55.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

If Kansas City had a Super Bowl hangover, it only seemed to last about two quarters. The offense ramped it up after intermission against the Browns to pull out a win, with Patrick Mahomes looking to his guys, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, almost to the exclusion of everyone else. It's not like Andy Reid to have such a narrow tree, so expect other players to get in on the fun as the season progresses, but if the team is in a tight spot you know who Mahomes is going to focus on. The Ravens, meanwhile, just want to leave what happened in Vegas behind in Vegas. On the bright side, Ty'Son Williams looked credible in the lead role in the backfield, some pass protection issues aside, and Latavius Murray still had some juice even though he'd only had about 20 minutes to study the playbook, so the team's basic offensive philosophy should remain intact despite the losses of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. This will be Lamar Jackson's team even moreso, though, and while the fifth-year QB is playing for a contract extension, that added pressure may have gotten to him last week as he fumbled twice trying to make things happen. There are enough talented receivers in Baltimore now to think Jackson might learn to trust his arm more, and Sammy Watkins could be looking for a revenge game against the team that, err, got him a Super Bowl ring? (I'm never sure how the politics of revenge games are supposed to work), but trying to out-sling Mahomes might not be the best approach.

The Skinny

KC injuries: none

BAL injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, ankle), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, ankle), CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable, back), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, ankle)

KC DFS targets: none

BAL DFS targets: Williams $5,500 DK / $5,700 FD and Murray $5,300 DK / $5,300 FD (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

KC DFS fades: Hill $8,400 DK / $8,700 FD (BAL third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Demarcus Robinson $3,800 DK / $4,700 FD (BAL fifth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC was third in third-down conversions in 2020 at 49.0 percent; BAL was second in third-down defense at 34.0 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire picks up 60 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 310 yards and two TDs, hitting Kelce and Mecole Hardman. Williams leads the BAL backfield with 90 yards and a touchdown, while Murray adds 50 yards. Jackson runs for 50 yards and a score himself and throws for 220 yards and a TD to Mark Andrews, as Harrison Butker beats Justin Tucker in a battle of elite kickers. Kansas City 26-24

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Washington, o/u 40.5
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Giants faceplanted to begin the season, losing at home to the mighty (cough) Broncos with an offense that seemed sluggish and a defense that let the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Melvin Gordon look good. Saquon Barkley doesn't appear to be all the way back yet, and the team is at least smartly not pushing a full workload onto him right away, but last week that meant leaving the ball in Daniel Jones' turnover-prone hands too much, which is far from ideal. Washington also came up short at home in its opener against the Chargers, but at least the Petulantly Not Choosing a New Nickname Yetters have a better excuse — Ryan Fitzpatrick, the guy who was supposed to help the passing game become at least adequate, got knocked out with a hip injury. That puts Taylor Heinicke under center for this one and for the foreseeable future, and while the 28-year-old came up big in the playoffs last season, there's a very Gardner Minshew sort of vibe to him. Heinicke might make some splashy plays and get some media attention, but the aggregate results aren't likely to be pretty for the undrafted QB out of Old Dominion. Fortunately for Washington, the team doesn't need him to be a star, just not screw up too badly and let Chase Young and the defense do their thing.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (questionable, knee), TE Evan Engram (out, calf), LG Shane Lemieux (out, knee)

WAS injuries: QB Fitzpatrick (IR, hip)

NYG DFS targets: Kenny Golladay $5,700 DK / $5,900 FD (WAS 27th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

WAS DFS targets: Adam Humphries $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Washington DEF $3,900 DK / $4,600 FD (sixth in sacks, t-7th in takeaways, fourth in points per game allowed, NYG t-29th in sacks allowed in 2020)

NYG DFS fades: Jones $5,300 DK / $6,900 FD (WAS second in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, in 2020, Sterling Shepard $5,500 DK / $6,100 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Darius Slayton $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG were 31st in red-zone conversion in 2020 at 46.3 percent; WAS was fourth in red-zone defense at 53.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NYG, average score 24-18 NYG, average margin of victory nine points. NYG have won five straight meetings by an average score of 30-19

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Barkley manages 60 combined yards. Jones throws for 240 yards and a TD to Golladay but he gets picked off twice, one of which gets returned to the house by William Jackson. Antonio Gibson racks up 120 yards and a score. Heinicke struggles, throwing for less than 200 yards and running for another 50 but losing a fumble that Blake Martinez scoops up for a touchdown. Washington 23-14
 
Last week's record: 11-5, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1125-677-6, 867-875-66 ATS, 620-650-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)