NFL Game Previews: Chiefs-Ravens Matchup

Kansas City (+3.5) at Baltimore, o/u 53.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

All apologies to the Sunday nighter, but this is without a doubt the main event of the week if not the entire regular season. The defending champs on the road against their most dangerous rival, who they managed to duck in their march through the playoffs last year? Yes please. Kansas City hasn't really had a signature offensive eruption yet, but Patrick Mahomes still boasts a 5:0 TD:INT. Curiously, his YPA is way down through two games, as are his intended air yards per attempt. If defenses are selling out to stop the bombs to Tyreek Hill, it will be interesting to see how Andy Reid adjusts — though that adjustment might have been coming anyway in this matchup, as Travis Kelce has posted a 14-166-1 line on 17 targets the last two years against the Ravens. The bigger question isn't how Mahomes will get his points, but how the KC defense will prevent Lamar Jackson from getting his. Baltimore's offense is a juggernaut, basically doing whatever it wants to whoever it's facing. The Browns and Texans defenses decided they had to respect the Ravens' ground game, so Jackson picked them apart en route to a dizzying 77.6 percent completion rate and mammoth 9.8 YPA. Even if this game meets all expectations when it comes to points on the scoreboard, it might be the defense that makes a stand when it needs it that decides this one.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, concussion), CB Charvarius Ward (questionable, hand)

BAL injuries: none

KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce $7,000 DK / $7,800 FD (BAL 24th in DVOA vs. TE)

BAL DFS targets: Mark Ingram $5,500 DK / $6,300 FD (KC 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Mark Andrews $6,000 DK / $7,300 FD (KC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes $7,400 DK / $9,000 FD (BAL second in QB rating against, third in TD% allowed in 2019, third in passing DVOA in 2020), Tyreek Hill $7,100 DK / $8,100 FD (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Demarcus Robinson $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (BAL second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

BAL DFS fades: Marquise Brown $6,000 DK / $6,100 FD (KC third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2019), Miles Boykin $3,900 DK / $4,700 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

Key stat: KC was 20th in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 54.0 percent; BAL was third in red-zone defense in 2019 at 47.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Clyde Edwards-Helaire picks up 70 yards and a TD. Mahomes gets held to 260 yards and one touchdown to Kelce. Ingram leads the BAL backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving score. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Andrews while running for 50 yards and a touchdown of his own. Ravens, 27-20 

Houston (+4) at Pittsburgh, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Texans are in trouble. Sure, they've had a tough early schedule, but other than the presence of Deshaun Watson, is there any reason to think this roster can climb out of an 0-3 hole if they can't pull the upset? David Johnson's been fine as the lead back, but DeAndre Hopkins has more catches for the Cards than any two Texans combined, and that trade is going to hang like an albatross around Bill O'Brien's neck unless someone steps up as a difference-maker on offense. The Steelers have no such concerns after cruising to a 2-0 start, though their inability to put away a battered Broncos squad was a little curious. Having a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center has made a world of difference for the offense, and wideouts like Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool has gotten a chance to shine. The defense is just as nasty as it was last year though, getting to the QB more often than any team in the league. Given how much trouble Houston's offensive line has had giving Watson time to make something happen, that doesn't bode well for the visitors.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Duke Johnson (questionable, ankle), WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, quad), WR Kenny Stills (questionable, illness)

PIT injuries: none

HOU DFS targets: Randall Cobb $4,400 DK / $5,200 FD (PIT 26th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

PIT DFS targets: James Conner $6,700 DK / $7,100 FD (HOU 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019), Steelers DST $4,000 DK / $4,700 FD (first in sack rate, second in INT% in 2019, third in sack rate in 2020, HOU 31st in sack rate allowed in 2020)

HOU DFS fades: David Johnson $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD (PIT fourth in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019, first in rushing DVOA in 2020), Jordan Akins $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT third in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT was eighth in third-down conversions at 44.4 percent in 2018 (Roethlisberger's last healthy year); HOU was 31st in third-down defense at 48.5 percent in 2019

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Johnson is held to 70 scrimmage yards but he does catch a TD pass. Watson throws for 230 yards and gets sacked five times. Conner piles up 90 combined yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Johnson and Eric Ebron. Steelers 24-13

Cincinnati (+5.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's only been two weeks, but Joe Burrow looks like he'll be the Man for a long time in Cincy, and he impressively went down slinging last week in a game that by all rights shouldn't have been that close. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Burrow seems to have arrived too late to benefit from a peak A.J. Green. The veteran receiver has already seen 22 targets through two games, but he's turned them into only eight catches for 80 yards, and he hasn't looked right on the field. It could simply be a case of him needing more time to shake off the rust after playing only nine games the last two years, but at 32 and with a lengthy list of lower-body injuries on his medical chart, it's more likely the guy who reeled off five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career isn't coming back. The Bengals do have other weapons though if Green is forced to take a back seat, including second-year tight end Drew Sample, who might be a breakout candidate in the wake of C.J. Uzomah's season-ending Achilles tear. Eagles fans might be wondering the same thing about the quarterback who appeared headed for an MVP award in the first half of 2017. Carson Wentz has had an awful start to the year, and while an aging, brittle offensive line is partially to blame, he hasn't done much even when he has had time in the pocket. Cincy's defense is badly missing Geno Atkins and has been far more vulnerable on the ground to start 2020, so Wentz could let Miles Sanders do the heavy lifting Sunday, but Philly's QB will need to turn things around quickly if the team is going to avoid falling too far behind in an NFC East that once again looks very winnable.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: TE Uzomah (IR, Achilles), DT Atkins (out, shoulder), S Shawn Williams (questionable, calf)

PHI injuries: WR Alshon Jeffery (out, foot), WR Jalen Reagor (out, thumb), LG Isaac Seumalo (IR, knee), RG Brandon Brooks (out, Achilles)

CIN DFS targets: Tyler Boyd $5,900 DK / $5,800 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

PHI DFS targets: Miles Sanders $6,400 DK / $7,400 FD (CIN 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), DeSean Jackson $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws in 2019), Greg Ward $3,400 DK / $4,700 FD (CIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019, 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CIN DFS fades: none

PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI was fourth in third-down conversions in 2019 at 45.4 percent; CIN was t-25th in third-down defense in 2019 at 42.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Joe Mixon bangs out 80 yards. Burrow throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Boyd and Sample. Sanders erupts for 140 combined yards and two scores. Wentz has a quiet day but doesn't make any big mistakes, throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown to Jackson. Eagles 24-23

San Francisco at N.Y. Giants (+4), o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

My mother asked me how to pronounce Injurmageddon after the Thursday Preview went up, and whether the stress was supposed to be on IN-jur-ma-ged-don or on In-JUR-ma-ged-don. The latter seems to flow better, so let's go with that. Or maybe we should check with Def Leppard to be sure. Why am I mentioning this, and linking to random hair metal videos, in the Niners' writeup? Because it's better than trying to make sense of the fantasy carnage on their roster. This is an offense that will be missing its starting QB, top two RBs, No. 1 WR and All-Pro tight end this weekend. Oh, and just for balance, three-quarters of San Francisco's elite defensive line will be in street clothes too. What's more gruesome is that they have to return to the same house of horrors this week that most of those injuries occurred it — they were in MetLife Stadium last week for a road game against the Jets. By the way, the NFL, an entirely trustworthy organization, says the brand new turf installed in the offseason is perfectly fine and had nothing to do with all those knee issues. Mmm-hmm. Even with all that, the betting line still has the 49ers favored by more than a field goal on the road, which is as savage an indictment of the Giants as I can imagine public opinion laying out. Yeah, OK, they lost Saquon Barkley too and Sterling Shepard too — I didn't call Week 2 Injurmageddon as a joke, people — but if you can't beat a team starting its second-team offense on your own home turf, what are you even doing.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (out, ankle), RB Raheem Mostert (out, knee), RB Tevin Coleman (out, knee), TE George Kittle (out, knee), C Weston Richburg (out, knee), DE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), DE Dee Ford (out, back), DT Solomon Thomas (IR, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, quad), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (questionable, hamstring)

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (IR, knee), WR Shepard (IR, toe)

SF DFS targets: Trent Taylor $3,400 DK / $4,500 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019, 27th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

NYG DFS targets: Darius Slayton $4,900 DK / $5,500 FD (SF 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

SF DFS fades: Brandon Aiyuk $4,100 DK / $4,800 FD (NYG third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

NYG DFS fades: Dion Lewis $5,300 DK / $5,500 FD (DSF first in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019), Evan Engram $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE in 2019, second in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

Key stat: NYG were 19th in third-down conversions in 2019 at 37.3 percent; SF was t-second in third-down defense in 2019 at 33.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jerick McKinnon zips for 90 combined yards and a score, while JaMycal Hasty also catches a TD pass. Nick Mullens throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Jordan Reed. Lewis starts for NYG and gains only 50 scrimmage yards, while newly signed Devonta Freeman adds 50. Daniel Jones tries to keep up, throwing for 250 yards and a TD to Slayton while running in a score of his own, but he also gets picked off twice. 49ers, 24-14

Las Vegas (+6) at New England, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Coming off a short but rewarding week with a big Monday night win over the Saints in their first ever home opener in Las Vegas, the Raiders aren't as beset by injuries as some squads, but they're not 100 percent healthy, either. First-round pick Henry Ruggs is sidelined with some lower-body issues, while both Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller are on the injury report and the offensive line is down a couple starters as well. The biggest loss might be Nick Kwiatkoski, though — no team has yet found a way to contain a rejuvenated Cam Newton on the ground, and Vegas will have a much tougher time trying to figure out that puzzle without its starting middle linebacker. I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Bill Belichick has simply moved on from Tom Brady and created a new identity for the Patriots around his new QB, but if the defense holds up — something it didn't do last week in Seattle — they'll have plenty of time to work out the kinks in the new Ravens-inspired offensive philosophy. Of course, Derek Carr is no Russell Wilson, so what happened in Week 2 isn't likely to repeat itself.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, hip), WR Ruggs (out, knee), TE Waller (questionable, knee), LG Richie Incognito (IR, Achilles), RT Trent Brown (out, calf), LB Kwiatkoski (out, pectoral)

NE injuries: RB James White (out, personal), WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee), WR N'Keal Harry (questionable, ankle), LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, calf), C David Andrews (out, thumb)

LV DFS targets: Bryan Edwards $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

NE DFS targets: Cam Newton $6,700 DK / $7,700 FD (LV 31st in QB rating against, 31st in YPA allowed, 29th in TD% allowed in 2019), Rex Burkhead $4,000 DK / $4,800 FD (LV 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), N'Keal Harry $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (LV 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019), Patriots DST $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD (sixth in sack rate, first in INT%, first in points allowed in 2019, first in INT% in 2020)

LV DFS fades: Derek Carr $5,400 DK / $6,800 FD (NE first in QB rating against, second in YPA allowed, first in TD% rate allowed in 2019), Hunter Renfrow $4,300 DK / $5,100 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019), Darren Waller $5,700 DK / $6,600 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV was t-22nd in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 52.8 percent; NE was fourth in red-zone defense in 2019 at 48.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jacobs gets held to 60 yards but scores. Carr throws for 230 yards and a TD to Edwards. Burkhead leads the NE running backs with 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Newton doesn't get a chance to run in a score this time, but he does throw for 250 yards and a second TD to Harry. Patriots, 20-17

Tennessee at Minnesota (+2.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The 2-0 Titans got a cushy start to the season, but on paper things are about to get more difficult, with home games against the Steelers and Bills following this contest. The offense doesn't seem to have missed a beat from the second half of 2019, though, with Ryan Tannehill posting a 6:0 TD:INT  and Derrick Henry averaging exactly 100 yards a game, even if he is still looking for his first TD. The fact that they've done so well despite a minimal contribution from A.J. Brown doesn't bode well for the rest of the AFC South. They also might be facing the Vikings at exactly the right time. Minnesota's been a mess on both sides of the ball — only the Falcons allowed more points through their first two games, while the Vikings' offense is last in plays run and plays per drive. There's too much talent in the latter group for that malaise to last much longer, and it's not like new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is some unproven kid in over his head. A Titans defense that's been fairly soft against the run and gave up a 100-yard game to rookie James Robinson might have its hands full containing Dalvin Cook.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Brown (out, knee)

MIN injuries: LB Anthony Barr (IR, pectoral), CB Mike Hughes (out, neck), CB Cameron Dantzler (out, ribs)

TEN DFS targets: Adam Humphries $3,900 DK / $4,600 FD (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $7,600 DK / $8,600 FD (TEN 29th in YPC allowed in 2020)

TEN DFS fades: Jonnu Smith $5,200 DK / $5,600 FD (MIN first in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

MIN DFS fades: Bisi Johnson $3,600 DK / $4,700 FD (TEN second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019, sixth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

Key stat: TEN was first in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 75.6 percent; MIN was second in red-zone defense in 2019 at 43.8 percent (but 5-for-10 to begin 2020)

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop Henry rumbles for 110 yards and a score. Tannehill stays sharp, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to Humphries and Corey Davis. Cook responds with 120 scrimmage yards and a TD. Kirk Cousins throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Adam Thielen. Titans, 30-20

Washington (+7) at Cleveland, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

There are only two divisions in the NFL that already don't have an undefeated team through two weeks, and it's fitting that the Team With No Name sits atop one (tied with the Cowboys). As expected, the pass rush has been Good, ranking second in sack rate at 12.1 percent and ninth in overall pressure rate at 25.8 percent. Washington's passing game has been Bad though — Dwayne Haskins' 56.3 percent completion rate is actually lower than last year's mark — and a running game that has somehow found 18 carries for Peyton Barber at 1.7 yards per carry has been downright Ugly at times. If Haskins proves this year that he's not a long-term solution at QB, it's going to take more than a Fistful of Dollars in free agency to get a replacement. The Browns are also 1-1, and while they bounced back somewhat from their awful showing in Week 1, they were hardly convincing in putting away the Bengals last week. The running game is stout, but Baker Mayfield remains an enigma, and a banged-up defense has surrendered 34 points a game. A defense that digs big holes, and a QB that can't be relied upon to climb out of them, is a bad combination.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: WR Steven Sims (questionable, toe), RG Brandon Scherff (IR, knee), RT Morgan Moses (questionable, hip)

CLE injuries: DE Olivier Vernon (out, abdomen), LB Mack Wilson (questionable, knee), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, groin), CB Greedy Williams (out, shoulder)

WAS DFS targets: Washington DST $3,000 DK / $3,900 FD (second in sack rate in 2020, CLE 31st in INT% allowed in 2019)

CLE DFS targets: Austin Hooper $4,400 DK / $5,300 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

WAS DFS fades: none

CLE DFS fades: Kareem Hunt $6,100 DK / $6,200 FD (WAS first in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

Key stat: WAS was 27th in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 48.8 percent; CLE was 25th in red-zone defense in 2019 at 61.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, 12-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Antonio Gibson picks up 80 yards and a TD, while Barber vultures another short score. Haskins runs for 50 yards and throws for less than 200 but finds Logan Thomas for a touchdown. Nick Chubb grinds out 70 yards and a TD. Mayfield is also under pressure all day, throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown to Odell Beckham. Washington, 21-17

L.A. Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Coming into 2020, the Rams were viewed as a top-heavy team whose stars probably wouldn't be able to overcome its lack of depth. It's been the role players who have stepped up in their 2-0 start, though — Malcolm Brown in the opener, then Darrell Henderson and Tyler Higbee last week. The defense has been more than just Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey too, sitting second in QB rating against. Maybe this roster is deeper than it looked. Both units get a tough test here, though, as the Bills are also 2-0 thanks to their usual defensive stoutness (top 10 in both QB rating against and YPC allowed) plus a dynamic performance by Josh Allen. The addition of Stefon Diggs has been transformative, and an offense that was once a ground-and-pound throwback is tops in the league in passing yards — and that's even after you include a third game for the Dolphins and Jags. Despite their strong play so far, the Rams might not be able to either contain the newly explosive Buffalo aerial attack, or keep pace with it.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Cam Akers (out, ribs), LG Joe Noteboom (IR, calf)

BUF injuries: RB Zack Moss (out, toe), TE Dawson Knox (out, concussion), LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, shoulder), LB Matt Milano (questionable, hamstring)

LAR DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: John Brown $5,700 DK / $6,400 FD (LAR 25th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

LAR DFS fades: Jared Goff $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD (BUF third in QB rating against, third in YPA allowed, second in TD% allowed in 2019), Robert Woods $6,100 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2019), Cooper Kupp $6,300 DK / $7,100 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019, fifth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

BUF DFS fades: Cole Beasley $4,500 DK / $5,300 FD (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: BUF was 17th in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 56.8 percent; LAR were 28th in red-zone defense in 2019 at 63.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Malcolm Brown adds 60 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Higbee. Devin Singletary takes advantage of his extra reps with Moss out, erupting for 110 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 240 yards and a TD to John Brown while running in a score of his own. Bills, 27-24

Chicago (+3.5) at Atlanta, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bears are arguably the most surprising 2-0 team in the league, although downing the Lions and Giants isn't exactly a stern test of their mettle. As such, it's hard to get a good read on where they're at. Has Mitchell Trubisky turned a corner, or did he just not screw up in soft matchups? Is the defense inching closer to Monsters of the Midway status again, or did it just luck out in not having to face much of Kenny Golladay or Saquon Barkley? The latter question, at least, should get answered this week against a high-flying Falcons squad that is fifth in points per game at 32.0 and second in passing yards per game at 350.5. The fact that the Falcons have generated all that offense and are still 0-2 is either incredibly fluky, or a scathing indictment of Dan Quinn, depending on your perspective. It's hard not to look at last week's seemingly impossible loss to Dallas as anything but a coaching failure, though — in the history of the NFL, teams are now 440-1 when scoring 39 points with zero turnovers, with Atlanta as the 1, and the footage of the special teams unit just watching the football slowly trickle 10 yards on that successful onside kick by the Cowboys still seems like some sort of fever dream. It's like when you're watching a horror movie and you shout at the screen, "Don't go down there!," only this time you're shouting, "Just jump on the ball!" How the Falcons bounce back from that collapse might well determine the course of their season.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: LB Khalil Mack (questionable, knee)

ATL injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, hamstring), RT Kaleb McGary (questionable, knee), DE Takkarist McKinley (questionable, groin), DE Dante Fowler (questionable, ankle)

CHI DFS targets: Anthony Miller $4,900 DK / $5,500 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019, 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Darnell Mooney $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (ATL 27th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

ATL DFS targets: none

CHI DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Julio Jones $7,400 DK / $7,800 FD (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Russell Gage $5,100 DK / $5,600 FD (CHI third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

Key stat: ATL was 11th in third-down conversions in 2019 at 42.0 percent; CHI was t-ninth in third-down defense in 2019 at 36.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop David Montgomery gains 80 yards and a touchdown, while Tarik Cohen adds 70 combined yards. Trubisky throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Miller and Jimmy Graham while Allen Robinson tops 100 yards. Todd Gurley is held to 60 yards. Matt Ryan throws for 300 yards and scores to Olamide Zaccheaus and Hayden Hurst, but a Gage fumble late ends a comeback attempt. Bears, 27-20

Carolina (+6.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Matt Rhule may have begun his NFL coaching tenure at 0-2, but he at least has the Panthers playing hard, even if there simply isn't enough talent on the defensive side to slow the opposition for long (and now maybe not enough on the offensive side to keep things close, with Christian McCaffrey sidelined). Derek Carr and the Raiders put up more than 30 points against them while on the road, and Tom Brady and the Bucs did the same at home last week even though Tampa Bay's offense clearly isn't all on the same page yet. The problem has been a horrifically bad Carolina run defense that's already been stung for six rushing TDs in two weeks, including a late one by Leonard Fournette last week that was a killer/savior for bettors depending on where your money was — it both gave the Bucs the cover, and flipped the total from the under to the over. That sets this game up perfectly for a Bolts backfield that remains a dangerous two-headed beast even with Melvin Gordon now in Denver. Rookie Joshua Kelley has done a credible job as Austin Ekeler's apprentice, and if both backs continue to get volume, they could add another disaster to a string of futility for the Panthers front seven that extends back to 2019 — and take a lot of pressure off both a battered defense, and Justin Herbert in his second NFL start.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (IR, ankle), LT Russell Okung (questionable, groin), LG Dennis Daley (doubtful, ankle), DT Kawann Short (doubtful, foot)

LAC injuries: QB Tyrod Taylor (out, chest), RB Justin Jackson (doubtful, quad), RG Trai Turner (questionable, groin), RT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, knee), DE Melvin Ingram (doubtful, knee), LB Nick Vigil (doubtful, groin)

CAR DFS targets: Ian Thomas $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (LAC 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

LAC DFS targets: Austin Ekeler $6,800 DK / $7,500 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2019), Joshua Kelley $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2019)

CAR DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC were sixth in third-down conversions in 2019 at 44.3 percent; CAR was t-21st in third-down defense in 2019 at 39.9 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Mike Davis piles up 90 yards and a touchdown, while Trenton Cannon catches a TD pass. Teddy Bridgewater throws for 230 yards and a second score to Thomas. Ekeler rips off 150 combined yards and a TD, while Kelley adds 70 yards and a score. Herbert throws for 220 yards. Chargers, 23-21 

N.Y. Jets (+11) at Indianapolis, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Last year, it was Sam Darnold who missed a ton of time early. This year, it's everybody around him on the offense who's on the shelf. Bad as the Jets' injury luck has run, though, it's the poor play of the defense that's really been killing them. Gang Green has become the Gang That Can't Stop a Clock, racking up an unbelievable 38 missed tackles through two games. That's a somewhat subjective stat, sure, but you can't whiff that often against skill players without paying for it, as Jordan Reed demonstrated last week. The Colts are already getting a sense of the roller coaster ride they're in for with Philip Rivers under center, but Jonathan Taylor has looked solid in the backfield and Mo Alie-Cox popped against the Vikings last week. This is a team with a defense that may be coming into its own, and an offense with enough talent to overcome Rivers' gaffes when necessary. Against a Jets roster being held together by chewing gum and dental floss MacGuyer-style, that should be more than enough.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: WR Breshad Perriman (out, ankle), WR Jamison Crowder (out, hamstring), WR Braxton Berrios (questionable, hamstring), C Connor McGovern (questionable, hamstring), RT George Fant (out concussion)

IND injuries: WR Parris Campbell (IR, knee), TE Jack Doyle (questionable, ankle), CB Rock Ya-Sin (out, illness)

NYJ DFS targets: Josh Malone $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (IND 29th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019, 29th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

IND DFS targets: Zach Pascal $4,500 DK / $5,100 FD (NYJ 27th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Colts DST $4,100 DK / $4,800 FD (first in sack rate, second in INT% in 2020)

NYJ DFS fades: Chris Herndon $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (IND third in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

IND DFS fades: Jonathan Taylor $7,000 DK / $6,700 FD (NYJ second in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed in 2019, third in rushing DVOA in 2020)

Key stat: NYJ were 31st in third-down conversions in 2019 at 30.7 percent; IND was 27th in third-down defense in 2019 at 42.7 percent (but sixth to begin 2020 at 36.8 percent)

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop Frank Gore plods for 50 yards. Darnold is under constant pressure but throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Malone. Taylor picks up 70 yards and a score. Rivers throws for 260 yards and TDs to T.Y. Hilton and Alie-Cox, but also a pick-six to ex-Indy cornerback Pierre Desir to keep things semi-close. Colts, 30-17

Dallas (+5) at Seattle, o/u 55.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The beginning of Mike McCarthy's tenure in Dallas has been a wild ride, hasn't it? They could just as easily be 2-0 as 0-2, and both games have essentially been decided by displays of poor judgment on the part of people other than them — were it not for that sketchy offensive pass interference call on Michael Gallup they might have beat the Rams in Week 1, while as for that ridiculous comeback against the Falcons, see the Atlanta entry above. Given the shambles that is the NFC East, the Cowboys probably don't have to play perfect football here on out to win the division, and even coming off his history-making statistical effort against the Falcons (first QB in NFL History with more than 400 passing yards and three rushing TDs in a game), Dak Prescott's 2:0 TD:INT seems awfully tepid given the weapons at his disposal. The Dallas passing game could go off at any moment — and what better time to do it than against a Seahawks defense that just let Cam Newton light it up for nearly 400 yards of his own? Russell Wilson's been more than up to the task of out-gunslinging the opposition's gunslinger, but you have to wonder if Pete Carroll is going to revert to form at some point and rein him in. The over/under on this one is flat out absurd, but given the games both teams have played through two weeks, 55.5 combined points almost seems conservative.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: LT Tyron Smith (questionable, neck), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (questionable, knee), CB Chidobe Awuzie (out, hamstring)

SEA injuries: CB Quinton Dunbar (questionable, knee)

DAL DFS targets: Amari Cooper $6,500 DK / $7,000 FD (SEA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $6,500 DK / $6,500 FD (DAL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

DAL DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA was ninth in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 63.3 percent; DAL was t-ninth in red-zone defense in 2019 at 50.9 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Ezekiel Elliott bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Cooper (who tops 100 yards) and Gallup. Chris Carson pounds out 90 yards and a score. Wilson dazzles again, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs, one each to Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Will Dissly. Seahawks, 31-24

Tampa Bay at Denver (+6), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

So, look. I'm not going to declare Tom Brady to be washed up or anything, but is he really that good a fit for Bruce Arians' offense? The 43-year-old is 21st in intended air yards per attempt, and it's hard to imagine that improving significantly as the season goes on. By contrast, Jameis Winston was second in the league in that category last year at 10.4 intended yards per attempt, three yards longer than Brady's current mark. Sure, Winston didn't always know what jersey the person on the other end of that pass would be wearing, but chucking it up playground-style and letting Mike Evans and Chris Godwin go get it isn't the worst idea in the world. Instead, Brady needs those two to pile up yards after the catch, and it's not their strong suit — Godwin at least managed a solid 6.7 YAC/R last year, but Evans hasn't topped 3.8 either of the last two years. Until that all gets sorted out, leaning heavily on Leonard Fournette and the backfield (is #FreeRonaldJones a thing yet?) might become a regular occurrence, even against defenses less vulnerable to the run than Carolina's. As for the Broncos, we still don't actually know yet if losing Drew Lock for a few games is a big deal or not, but Mendoza help them if they're forced to turn to Blake Bortles. Whoever is under center is starting to run out of targets too, with Jerry Jeudy now banged up and Courtland Sutton lost for the year. That's just more volume to feed Noah Fant's breakout, I suppose.

The Skinny

TB injuries: none

DEN injuries: QB Lock (out, shoulder), RB Phillip Lindsay (doubtful, toe), WR Sutton (IR, knee), WR Jeudy (questionable, ribs), LB Mark Barron (IR, hamstring)

TB DFS targets: Chris Godwin $6,700 DK / $7,900 FD (DEN 20th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DEN DFS targets: Noah Fant $5,400 DK / $5,800 FD (TB 22nd in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS fades: Scotty Miller $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (DEN fifth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

DEN DFS fades: Melvin Gordon $5,800 DK / $6,500 FD (TB 1st in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019), Tim Patrick $3,700 DK / $4,600 FD (TB sixth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2019)

Key stat: TB was fourth in red-zone conversions in 2019 at 64.8 percent; DEN was first in red-zone defense in 2019 at 39.1 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 60s, 13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Fournette manages 70 yards. Brady throws for 250 yards and a TD to Godwin. Melvin Gordon gets held to 50 yards. Jeff Driskel throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Fant and KJ Hamler. Broncos, 17-16

Detroit (+6) at Arizona, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's easy to look at the Lions' 0-2 start and think that Kenny Golladay's eventual return will perk them up, but Golladay wouldn't have stopped the defense's late collapse against Mitchell Trubisky in Week 1, nor have slowed down Aaron Jones last week. The Detroit defense is a train wreck, somehow allowing 6.5 yards a carry  (most in the league by a mile) but also 12.7 yards a reception (28th in the league), and winning the occasional shootout might be the best they can hope for in 2020. I'm sure that's just the way Matt Patricia drew it up. If it's a shootout they want, Kliff Kingsbury's boys can deliver. Kyler Murray's been unstoppable on the ground while showing a little improvement through the air, and only the Bengals have run more plays through two games as Kingsbury's uptempo scheme finds its stride. The defense showed a little backbone last week too, though stifling Dwayne Haskins isn't the most noteworthy achievement. In an NFC West that's looking like it might be a four-horse race, the young Cards can't afford a stumble in what on paper is a very winnable game.

The Skinny

DET injuries: WR Golladay (questionable, hamstring), CB Desmond Trufant (doubtful, hamstring)

ARI injuries: WR Christian Kirk (out, groin), DE Jordan Phillips (questionable, ankle)

DET DFS targets: Matthew Stafford $6,300 DK / $7,300 FD (ARI 32nd in QB rating against, 28th in YPA allowed, 30th in TD% allowed in 2019), D'Andre Swift $5,000 DK / $5,300 FD (ARI 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), T.J. Hockenson $5,300 DK / $5,400 FD (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2019)

ARI DFS targets: Kenyan Drake $6,000 DK / $6,500 FD (DET 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019, 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2020), Andy Isabella $3,800 DK / $4,500 FD (DET 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019)

DET DFS fades: none

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI was t-21st in third-down conversions in 2019 at 36.0 percent; DET was 28th in third-down defense in 2019 at 43.9 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Swift leads the DET backfield with 100 combined yards and a receiving score, while Kerryon Johnson adds 60 yards and a rushing touchdown. Stafford throws for 300 yards and two more TDs, hitting Hockenson and a returning Golladay. Drake piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Murray runs for 60 yards and throws for 260 more, finding DeAndre Hopkins for more than 100 yards and two TDs. Cardinals, 30-28

Green Bay (+3) at New Orleans, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Aaron Rodgers' resurgence has the Packers at 2-0, but his roaring start to the campaign could hit a speed bump if Davante Adams does indeed miss Sunday night's game. It's one thing to make guys like Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling look like world-beaters when Adams is drawing the other team's attention; let's see if Rodgers can do it when they're his best options through the air. Of course, if Aaron Jones torches another front seven, Green Bay's passing game might not need to be at peak efficiency, but Jones could come up big and they could still lose. Just ask the Saints. The passing game looked out of sync in Monday's loss, and Michael Thomas' absence loomed large, so Alvin Kamara's best efforts went for naught. With another week to adjust, maybe Drew Brees can find an answer — it certainly doesn't appear to be Emmanuel Sanders — but from an offensive fireworks perspective, this game could end up fizzling if both QBs find themselves missing their aces.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Adams (doubtful, hamstring), LG Elgton Jenkins (questionable, back), RG Lane Taylor (IR, knee), DT Kenny Clark (questionable, groin), S Darnell Savage (questionable, groin)

NO injuries: WR Thomas (out, ankle)

GB DFS targets: Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,900 DK / $5,100 FD (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

NO DFS targets: Jared Cook $5,500 DK / $6,600 FD (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

GB DFS fades: none

NO DFS fades: Marquez Callaway $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: GB was t-21st in third-down conversions in 2019 at 36.0 percent; NO was sixth in third-down defense in 2019 at 34.8 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop Jones racks up 90 yards and a score. Rodgers has a quiet game, throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown to Valdes-Scantling. Kamara zips for 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Brees throws for 250 yards and a second score to Cook. Saints, 24-20

Miami (+3) at Jacksonville, o/u 48.0 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Dolphins mostly survived Injurmageddon unscathed last week, with only Byron Jones suffering a groin strain, and DeVante Parker even got healthy enough to avoid an injury report listing altogether Thursday. While they lost both games in their season-opening AFC East gauntlet to the Pats and Bills, dropping them by a combined 13 points is definitely a better performance than expected, and Miami even held the lead briefly in the fourth quarter Sunday before Josh Allen (the Buffalo one) turned into John Elway for a hot minute. The question now is whether the team rose to the occasion, or whether their division rivals played down to theirs. While the sample size isn't yet particularly trustworthy, some advanced metrics suggest it was the latter. The Jags aren't quite so lucky on the injury front; DJ Chark is the headliner and came out of Week 2 banged up and may not be able to take full advantage of Jones' absence, but at least he might play. Gardner Minshew has been playing well, though, and even if Chark is limited to decoy duty, Minshew may have enough weapons at his disposal to answer any displays of Fitzmagic the Jags' own somewhat leaky defense can't deal with.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: CB Jones (out, groin)

JAC injuries: WR Chark (questionable, chest), C Brandon Linder (out, knee), K Josh Lambo (IR, hip)

MIA DFS targets: Myles Gaskin $4,800 DK / $5,600 FD (JAC 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019), Mike Gesicki $4,900 DK / $5,500 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2019, 31st in 2020)

JAC DFS targets: Gardner Minshew $6,400 DK / $7,700 FD (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in QB rating against, 29th in YPA allowed, 32nd in TD% allowed in 2019, 32nd in passing DVOA in 2020), Chris Thompson $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (MIA 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2019, 27th in 2020), DJ Chark $6,400 DK / $7,100 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2019), Keelan Cole $4,100 DK / $5,800 FD (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2019)

MIA DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is first in third-down conversions in 2020 at 62.5 percent (15-for-24); MIA is t-23rd in third-down defense at 50.0 percent (10-for-20)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Gaskin leads the MIA backfield with 70 scrimmage yards, but Jordan Howard punches in another short TD. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Gesicki but gets picked off three times. James Robinson racks up 90 yards and a score, and Thompson adds 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Minshew throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Laviska Shenault, and the QB also picks up his first career rushing TD. Jaguars, 33-14 

Last week's record: 12-4, 4-12 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 22-10, 14-17-1 ATS, 15-17 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 815-492-5, 607-654-51 ATS, 508-528-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)