Farm Futures: Dynasty Rankings for Contenders

It never hurts to ask. A subscriber responded to Ian Kahn's most recent update to the RotoWire Dynasty Rankings with a question:

I had not thought of doing this, and I would not have had time to do it if the season had started on time, but the delayed start to the season gave me a perfect opportunity to take Jenny up on her request.

The first of two installments will be a top-300 dynasty rankings specifically designed for contending teams — the rankings for rebuilding squads will drop next week. I am ranking these players with the RotoWire Dynasty Invitational format in mind. This is a 20-team standard 5x5 rotisserie dynasty league where managers keep 35 of 40 players every year. In my experience in this league and several others like it, there are never more than 5-6 teams legitimately contending for a title each year, and in some years there are only 2-3 teams with legitimate title aspirations, especially once we get to July or August. Those 5-6 managers are who these rankings are intended for. If you are a middle of the pack team that doesn't identify as a contender or rebuilder, then you need to pick a path (you should probably choose to rebuild). If you have enough young assets to turn yourself into a contender, then you can use these rankings to do so. 

Ranking Philosophies

I have some general philosophies in dynasty leagues that are worth sharing before you dive in: 

• Young, established MLB hitters are coveted regardless of whether you are rebuilding or contending.
• Defense matters. Body type matters. One of the reasons I have Bo Bichette and Ozzie Albies ranked so highly is because I love how their bodies will age through their 20s, and I know they will be in the lineup every day. I feel more confident in players like Ramon Laureano, Byron Buxton and Tommy Edman because I know their gloves will keep them in the lineup for years to come.
• Contracts matter. If a player is locked in to a long-term contract (Bryce Harper), you know they will be playing every day for years to come. If a player does not add value with the glove and is not locked up to a long-term contract, we can't really say with confidence where they will be or how much they will be playing in a year or two.
• Non-elite prospects are often overvalued in dynasty leagues. In my top-400 prospect rankings, I would only define my top 18 prospects as "elite". The bust rate on those non-elite guys is a lot higher than many prospectors would like to believe. This is where the phrase "Flags Fly Forever" comes in. If you want to get something solid, you have to give up something solid. The last thing you want to do is to finish second or third in your league because you were unwilling to trade a few prospects in that 19-75 range.
• Age is often overvalued with pitchers, so I tend to value quality over youth when it comes to starting pitchers.
• Dynasty leagues are standalone leagues, so while you will likely need to be competitive in steals and saves to win your league, you don't need to win those categories. With this in mind, I tend to discount closers and one-category speedsters.
• RDI is a 20-team, one-catcher league, so I'm ranking with that in mind. In a league where only 20 catchers are started, I don't really care about catchers outside of the upper-echelon guys at the position. Every year, catchers pop up on waivers in leagues this size who end up finishing as top-15 players at the position. Additionally, if you are ready to compete, rebuilding teams are always willing to deal their catchers for 50 or 75 cents on the dollar.
• You will notice that the 68 prospects who made this top 300 are not in the exact order they are in the top 400. Prospects who are in the same tier for me can reasonably be shuffled based on whether you are contending or rebuilding. Obviously if you are contending, proximity is more important. If you are rebuilding, upside is more important and pitching prospects are devalued.
• With regards to prospects, Wander Franco clearly won't be a top-20 player in the short term, but if you traded him, I believe the sum of the return would equate to roughly one top-20 player. Please keep this in mind with the rest of the prospects who show up on this list.

That should just about cover it. Obviously I had to exclude dozens of players who I'd value similarly to the players who just made the cut, so don't freak out if I excluded a guy who you'd have in the 250-300 range. Enjoy!