Evan White

It's not necessarily an embellishment to label 2022 as a potential make-or-break year for White with respect to his future in Seattle, as the once-highly-regarded prospect has produced a .165/.235/.308 slash line and massive 37.6 percent strikeout rate over his first 306 big-league plate appearances across 84 games. The struggles could be a byproduct of White initially making his majors debut in 2020 with just 18 plate appearances at the Triple-A level under his belt, but his .439 OPS through 104 PAs with the Mariners in 2021 seem to indicate there hasn't been much improvement with additional reps against big-league arms. Health hasn't exactly been on his side, either; White underwent season-ending hip surgery last summer and then suffered a sports hernia in spring training that also required him to go under the knife and is projected to keep him out for at least the first two months of the season. White has an above-average glove, but with the emerging Ty France laying down significant roots at first base, the former is likely to find consistent playing time hard to come by whenever he's healthy enough to make his season debut.

The Mariners signed White to an extension prior to last season, removing the incentive to manipulate his service time and leading an Opening Day callup. Given that he wasn't an elite offensive prospect and had only appeared in four games above Double-A, some initial struggles at the plate were to be expected, but his .176/.252/.346 slash line was still quite disappointing. His primary problem was a severe struggle to make contact, as he finished with an untenable 41.6 K%, a surprise given his perfectly adequate 23.0 K% in the minors. Encouragingly, he did hit the ball quite hard when he did manage to find it, with his 52.5% hard-hit rank ranking in the 95th percentile. That demonstrates the potential here, and White's strong defensive reputation and the Mariners' rebuilding status means he should get the chance to work through his contact issues, but he needs a huge improvement to be a viable option.

Quality first base prospects are a rarity these days, and White checks a lot of important boxes. A good athlete and plus defender (bats right, throws left), he could skip Triple-A and open the year in the majors after agreeing to a six-year, $24 million contract (with three club options) this offseason. He was 32% better than the average Texas League hitter and was even better after a slow start, hitting .313/.352/.548 with 17 home runs in 66 games from June on. His 36.7 Hard% is appropriate for a 23-year-old first baseman, and his type of contact (23.0 LD%, 42.4 GB%) fits the modern game. He may be susceptible to shifts (46.9 Pull%), but that is true of most first basemen. White has been clocked as a plus runner but has not put that speed to work on the bases with any consistency. Seattle will give him every opportunity to win the starting job this spring, as there are no service-time games to play.

The good news: White hit .303 with a 127 wRC+ at High-A. The bad news: he will head to Double-A this year for his age-23 season. Fortunately, his production is trending up. White was sent to Triple-A to play four games in early June, and upon returning to Modesto, he hit .318/.392/.496 with eight home runs, four steals, a 19.3 K% and a 10.0 BB%. He needs to work on getting the ball in the air a bit more (48.6 GB%) in order to hit for the type of power that would be acceptable for a first baseman. On the plus side, he has above-average speed and could chip in double-digit steals -- only Ian Desmond, Cody Bellinger and Freddie Freeman accomplished that feat at first base in 2018. White hit .257/.333/.429 in 18 Arizona Fall League games, which is a pedestrian line given his age, position and the hitter-friendly nature of that league, but it was also a small sample. If he performs as expected, White should debut in the summer of 2020.

Unfortunately, we were denied a large sample size for White in his first pro season, but the early returns are very encouraging. A quadriceps injury limited him to just 14 games in the Northwest League, but he was 38 percent better than a league average hitter and notched a 6:6 K:BB in 55 plate appearances. White has a chance to be a truly unique first base prospect, as he is billed as an excellent hitter with plus speed and debatable power. Like Cody Bellinger, White can play the outfield, but his elite defense should keep him on the infield dirt. Typically a first baseman who lacks plus power has a hard time generating fantasy value, but White's speed and hit tool could allow him to be the exception to that rule. Of course, thus far, he has shown that his power potential may have been undersold around the draft. The Mariners should assign him to the Midwest League for his age-22 season, where he could establish the potential for five-category production at first base.