Jarred Kelenic

25-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Atlanta Braves

2024 Stats

AVG

.231

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Kelenic failed to live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him in Seattle, but he will get a chance to start anew in Atlanta in 2024. The sixth overall pick in 2018, Kelenic was once viewed as a top prospect, if not the top prospect in all of baseball. Most Mets fans bemoaned his departure from the organization in the 2018 Edwin Diaz trade. After a disastrous first couple MLB seasons, Kelenic finally enjoyed a taste of big-league success in 2023, though he also missed a large portion of the year due to a fractured left foot, the result of kicking a water cooler in frustration. His poor luck on balls in play reversed and Kelenic finished above league average by many offensive measures. It's important to remember that he is still just 24 years old, and even with his strikeout issues (30.7 K%), he's shown some good things at the plate and on the bases. It's best to project a platoon role, but there may be upside from there in regards to playing time. His landing spot in Atlanta makes a post-hype gamble all the more intriguing. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

From Preseason

#474

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 190

DOB 7/16/1999

Born Waukesha, WI

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 NYM

Losing work to Laureano

OFAtlanta Braves

September 18, 2024

Kelenic is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Reds.

ANALYSIS
The left-handed-hitting Kelenic has picked up just two starts in eight games, even while Atlanta has opposed six right-handed starters during that span. After previously occupying the strong side of a platoon in left field, Kelenic appears to have ceded everyday duties at the position to Ramon Laureano. Kelenic's reduction in playing time comes while he's managed a lowly .176/.240/.294 slash line with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate dating back to Aug. 10.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+18%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+38%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+5%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+38%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.598	223	25	6	24	2	.208	.260	.338
Since 2022vs Right	.703	823	88	27	87	23	.228	.299	.404
2024vs Left	.516	72	7	1	6	0	.206	.236	.279
2024vs Right	.711	377	42	14	39	7	.235	.295	.416
2023vs Left	.774	92	12	4	15	1	.259	.315	.459
2023vs Right	.738	324	32	7	34	12	.251	.330	.408
2022vs Left	.426	59	6	1	3	1	.130	.203	.222
2022vs Right	.587	122	14	6	14	4	.147	.230	.358
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS on Road

2024

+19%

OPS at Home

2023

+14%

OPS on Road

2022

+23%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.674	549	59	17	57	14	.224	.285	.389
Since 2022Away	.688	497	54	16	54	11	.224	.298	.390
2024Home	.735	232	27	9	24	4	.244	.299	.437
2024Away	.619	217	22	6	21	3	.216	.272	.347
2023Home	.700	210	21	4	23	7	.250	.310	.391
2023Away	.795	206	23	7	26	6	.256	.345	.450
2022Home	.487	107	11	4	10	3	.125	.206	.281
2022Away	.601	74	9	3	7	2	.164	.243	.358
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Stat Review

How does Jarred Kelenic compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.24

BB Rate

7.1%

K Rate

29.6%

BABIP

.300

ISO

.163

AVG

.231

OBP

.286

SLG

.393

OPS

.679

wOBA

.298

Exit Velocity

89.8 mph

Hard Hit Rate

39.6%

Barrels/PA

6.2%

Expected BA

.241

Expected SLG

.412

Sprint Speed

22.7 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

35.1%

Line Drive %

24.8%

Fly Ball %

40.1%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Jarred Kelenic Prospect Ranking History

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Kelenic's sophomore season was worse than his rookie campaign. A strong spring finish earned him a starting job, but Kelenic was soon demoted to Triple-A Tacoma. He earned another callup in late July but was again overmatched by MLB pitching so the visit was again short-lived and he rejoined the Rainers before a final promotion in late September. This time, Kelenic impressed with a 1,107 OPS in seven games before he was hit by a pitch on the hand. While Kelenic's career .758 OPS and 19.1% strikeout rate facing hard stuff isn't great, it's Ruth-ian compared to his .418 OPS and 41.5% strikeout rate versus break balls and changeups. Be it pitch recognition or timing, Kelenic clearly has an issue, but it should be fixable. The catch is Seattle is in win now mode and has depth in the outfield, so Kelenic must hit to play. The talent to turn things round is there, the opportunity is in jeopardy.

We've been spoiled by some incredible prospect debuts in recent years. Kelenic does not fit in that category as his rookie year was nothing short of a colossal letdown. He finished with a miserable .181/.265/.350 line in 377 PA. Kelenic showed a pulse with an .854 OPS and seven homers over the final month of the season, and he swiped double-digit bags between Triple-A and the majors, but for a large portion of the year he was simply not doing damage on hittable pitches in the strike zone. His struggles in that regard are reflected in a bottom-eighth percentile xBA and middling 87.5 mph avgEV. Nobody these days is foolish enough to extrapolate his September over a full season, but somebody in your draft room is going to bet aggressively on a bounce-back from a player considered a top prospect in the game this time last year. It may be wise to wait another season and invest in a more proven option with that draft capital.

There was a stretch during summer camp in July where Kelenic was not only the prospect du jour, but the talk of the entire baseball world. Videos of his sweet left-handed home run swing were going viral and people were clamoring for him to make the big-league roster. He would have debuted in a 162-game season, but the rebuilding Mariners kept him at the alternate training site throughout the shortened season. With a good spring training, Kelenic will set himself up for a service-time manipulating April call-up or a long-term extension that would facilitate an Opening Day debut. He should assume a prominent spot in the lineup from day one and has five-category upside as a rookie. He could very reasonably go 25/15 during his age-21/22 season, but projecting his batting average and OBP is a more difficult assignment. The draft day price tag figures to only increase as we near the start of the season.

Kelenic has lived up to his billing as the top prep hitter from the 2018 draft, and after climbing from Low-A to Double-A in his first full season, he will soon be knocking on the door of the majors. Acquired from the Mets in last offseason's Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade, Kelenic was supposed to be an average runner with a hit-over-power profile, but he seems faster (20-for-27 on SB attempts) and more intent on pulling the ball out to right field. His 17.9 LD% and 52.2 Pull% at Double-A would be concerning marks if it weren't his third level of his age-19/20 season. Still, it is worth tracking how he performs against upper-level pitching now that he can't just hunt fastballs in hitter's counts. A back injury limited him to three games in the Arizona Fall League. The Mariners had an overly aggressive promotion schedule for him last year and there's no reason to expect that to stop in 2020 if he performs.

The Mets cashed out Kelenic before his full-season debut -- if they had not, Seattle reportedly would not have included Edwin Diaz in the deal. Through 12 games in the GCL, he looked like the best player from the 2018 draft. That production was unsustainable (.514 BABIP, 58.3 Pull%), but it made him the talk of the prospect community. The No. 6 overall pick was promoted to the Appy League, where his production normalized and we got a better sense of his true talent. He showed plus speed (11-for-12 on SB attempts), hit for power (.178 ISO) and demonstrated a good handle of the strike zone (11.0 BB%, 19.5 K%). The rep on Kelenic coming into the draft was that he may be the best prep hitter in the class. He had reverse splits (.256/.340/.426 in 200 PA vs. RHP, .409/.490/.636 in 51 PA vs. LHP), which will be something to track at Low-A. Using the whole field more often will allow him to reach his ceiling as a five-category OF2.

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Sitting versus southpaw

OFAtlanta Braves

September 17, 2024

Kelenic is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game in Cincinnati.