Hunter Dozier

Dozier started the season off with a thumb injury that bothered him the entire season. His whole game was off with a career-low BABIP (.276) and a four-year-high strikeout rate (28.4%) leading to the .200 average. He slowly healed and his OPS went from .586 in the first half to .780 in the second, and all the way up at .922 in September. His second-half slash line of .261/.331/.449 is respectable, but a decent slash line doesn't get the job done in fantasy. While being qualified at third, outfield and possibly first base depending on your league settings (19 games), he doesn't fit the profile of any of those positions with about 20 homers and five steals each season. He might be a bench bat in some leagues, but he's likely to remain on the waiver wire unless he takes a major step forward. Fantasy managers can dream of the .279 average from 2019, but considering that his next-highest batting average from any other season is .229, it's best to take the under.

After an age-28 breakout in 2019, Dozier managed a dismal .228/.344/.391 line across 196 plate appearances in 2020. He experienced a corresponding dip in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, giving the impression that his struggles were earned. He showed strong plate discipline -- his walk rate swelled to 14.5% -- but failed to make contact with pitches inside the zone. Dozier was diagnosed with COVID-19 shortly after the season began and reportedly suffered from shortness of breath after returning. Clarity regarding whether declining skills or illness were the cause of Dozier's 2020 struggles should come early in 2021, as the Royals are prepared to give him at-bats at first base. That makes it worthwhile to keep Dozier in mind from a volume perspective in the hope that his skills will rebound to their 2019 level.

After a lackluster 2018, things looked bleak for Dozier. Mostly because there were no other options, Dozier opened the season as the Royals' starting third baseman. Despite battling a sore back the latter part of the month, Dozier had a productive April, slashing .349/.447/.686, solidifying his full-time status. He was placed on the IL with a sore oblique in early June, missing 18 games. When he returned, it took a bit before he heated back up, but Dozier eventually returned to early-season form, finishing with a career-best 26 homers and 84 RBI, second to Jorge Soler on the team in both departments. Dozier's 25 K% isn't ideal, but it's palatable in today's landscape, especially since he displayed 85th percentile average exit velocity with 80th percentile sprint speed. Don't overlook his dual 3B/OF eligibility. Dozier is earmarked to again man the hot corner, offering an overlooked source of cheap power.

The 2013 first-round pick re-emerged as a viable prospect in 2016, had a lost season in 2017 and saw his first extended major-league action after his callup in May, playing in 102 games for the Royals. Dozier saw considerable time at first and third base and finished the season with a .229/.278/.395 slash line with 11 home runs in 388 PA. He has plus raw power but struggles to get to it consistently in games. His 28.1% strikeout rate is only slightly higher than his rate over three seasons at Triple-A Omaha, but remains a concern along with his 6.2% walk rate. The 27-year-old's ability to play all four corner spots boosts his real-life utility and gives him a chance to crack Kansas City's Opening Day roster, possibly as the everyday third baseman. However, his big-league opportunities will be more of a testament to the lack of talent on the Royals' roster than Dozier's own ability.

Dozier re-established himself as a notable prospect in 2016, but injuries and poor performance in limited opportunities resulted in his value cratering last season. He missed the first two months of the season with an oblique injury, then a week later he broke his wrist, which sidelined him until the middle of August. It's really hard to take much from his performance in 2017, especially when factoring in the type of injuries he dealt with. Fortunately, he finds himself on a team in the early stages of a rebuild, so while his spot on the 40-man roster may be in jeopardy on another team, he has a decent chance to make the Royals' big-league roster this spring. He saw time at third base and first base at Triple-A, but the majority of his starts came in right field. It's hard to say exactly where the 26-year-old will fit in, but he could post solid power numbers with a low batting average if he gets the at-bats.

Dozier's re-emergence as a prospect is an excellent story, as it seemed reasonable to write him off a year ago after he looked incapable of handling Double-A pitching. Obviously a recently turned 25-year-old posting a .864 OPS with 15 home runs over 103 games in the Pacific Coast League doesn't mean he won't end up settling in as a Quadruple-A hitter long term. But it is a sight far more encouraging than when he posted an OPS under .625 across 192 games at Double-A between 2014 and 2015. The Royals began transitioning him to the outfield at Triple-A, and when he got a cup of coffee with the big league club in September, all six of his starts came in right field. He's not particularly close to being a top-200 prospect, but at least he's now a player to be aware of in deeper single-season leagues in 2017.

Standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 220 pounds, the eighth overall pick in the 2013 draft certainly looks the part of a slugging third baseman. Watching Dozier smoke balls in batting practice only further adds to the allure. However, after 790 plate appearances at Double-A, the 24-year-old has yet to come close to meeting expectations. Dozier has hit just 16 home runs with nine steals and a .291 wOBA dating back to when he first joined Northwest Arkansas in the middle of the 2014 season. After hitting four home runs in 64 games to close out 2014, he was able to hit 12 homers in 128 games last year, but his strikeout rate jumped from 26.2% to 28.9% as a result of tweaking his approach, which adds another unappealing element to the equation. Until he can show the ability to lay off breaking balls out of the zone and get in more hitter’s counts, Dozier will be a player to follow, but not own, in most dynasty leagues.

Dozier produced a .826 OPS with four homers and seven steals over 276 at-bats for High-A Wilmington in 2014, which eventually earned him a mid-June promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. In an equal amount of at-bats at the Double-A level, he was largely disappointing, batting just .209 and striking out at a rate of 22.6%. He'll need to improve his contact rate at that level if he has intentions of making another jump in 2015, but the Royals remain confident the 6-foot-4 infielder will continue to develop the power they thought he would when they drafted him eighth overall in the 2013 first-year player draft. Triple-A Omaha seems to be the likely ceiling for Dozier in the coming season, and he'll still have to compete with several other intriguing prospects in the farm system if he plans on seeing infield work in the big leagues by 2016.

The Royals' first-round pick (eighth overall) in the 2013 draft was probably one of the most highly-criticized selections by scouts and baseball pundits. A shortstop out of Stephen A. Austin, the 21-year-old Dozier posted a slash line of .396/.482/.755 with 17 home runs during his senior year. However, while most believe he possesses a strong skill set, few are convinced that he will make it in the major leagues, and most believe he will require a move over to either second or third base. Dozier impressed at the plate in the Rookie League, posting a .303/.403/.509 slash line with a 13.3% walk rate and a .203 ISO over 258 plate appearances, but he struggled with a late-season move to Low-A ball. He'll continue to work at the lower levels until he shows some continued growth, but he appears to be a long way away from the big leagues.