Yuli Gurriel

Gurriel turned in one of his best seasons in the twilight of his career when most drafters simply overlooked him. He was on the periphery of the first-base rankings last winter coming off his worst season to date, but most still thought he could resume his 2017-18 levels of hitting. He did that and a bit more as he ended up leading the AL in batting average while doubling his career walk rate and becoming a productive run producer in the lower half of the Houston lineup. He remains a high-contact hitter who hits the ball to all fields with varying levels of contact quality as he is just as likely to rope a baseball into the Crawford Boxes as he is to dink one into short right field. His 2019 power numbers are clearly an aberration, but other seasons show the high ceiling Gurriel provides heading into 2022. We cannot expect much more from a guy turning 38 in the first half of the season.

After Gurriel's power production spiked in 2019 without a matching improvement in his skills, regression was expected for 2020. That came to fruition, as his home-run pace over a full slate of plate appearances dipped from 31 to just over 15. On a positive note, Gurriel was able to maintain his contact skills, posting a contact rate at or above 86% for the third consecutive season. While his power isn't likely to spike again in 2021, Gurriel's batting average inexplicably fell to .232 in 2020, due at least in part to a .235 BABIP. That makes him a good bet to move back toward his .287 career average, even if his skills decline as he moves toward the end of his career. All told, however, Gurriel's skillset demands a high dependency on positive team context to build up counting stats, something worth noting with the Astros losing George Springer in free agency.

Gurriel set a new personal best in homers, clubbing 31, the same number he totaled the previous two seasons combined. Of all batters hitting at least 30 home runs, Gurriel's average flyball distance was the shortest. While average flyball distance correlates better to homers than average homer run distance, it's worth noting that Gurriel's average home run distance was second shortest to teammate Alex Bregman, both taking advantage of the ball and the Crawford boxes. Otherwise, it was business as usual, though Gurriel also set career bests in games and plate appearances. Unless the Astros decide to transition an outfielder to first, Gurriel should again be the primary first baseman while retaining dual eligibility at the hot corner. Beware, there's usually someone at the table influenced by recency bias and Gurriel is already a risk to drop back if the ball is closer to the 2018 version. Don't overpay.

The numbers may not jump off the page, but Gurriel had a fine season for fantasy purposes, finishing as a top-20 first baseman ahead of the likes of Joey Votto and Eric Hosmer. His defensive metrics were not exactly glowing, but his ability to at least hold his own around the infield gave the Astros some flexibility during absences of top stars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. He posted an 11.0% K-rate, which was an exact copy of his 2017 mark -- he did that despite a significant uptick in his O-Swing%. Gurriel improved dramatically against opposite-handed pitching, hitting .331/.371/.519 against lefties, up from .252/.300/.395 in 2017. He experienced a decline against right-handed pitching and an overall dip in power, but as he approaches his 35th birthday, Gurriel still has a solid foundation of skills. It seems like a decent bet that Gurriel, now third-base eligible, will clear 500 plate appearances again for Houston.

Gurriel fared well in his first opportunity to play regularly in the big leagues and he has the Astros' first-base gig locked down, but a hand injury and suspension will delay him to start 2018. The right-handed batter showcased above-average contact skills last year (84.2 percent contact rate, 11.0 strikeout rate), and a lot of it was quality contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 35.1 percent hard contact rate). Even with a measly 3.9 percent walk rate, he has an excellent batting-average floor, and there may even be a little room for growth if he figures out lefties (.252/.300/.395). Gurriel is no spring chicken, but this kind of offensive skill set yields bankable production and typically ages well. The lineup around him is so good to where his run and RBI totals should be fine even if he remains mostly confined to the bottom third of the batting order.

2016 was a whirlwind for Gurriel that began with him defecting from Cuba after the Caribbean World Series in February. By June, MLB had determined he was a free agent and by July, the Astros signed the 32-year-old to a five-year, $47.5 million deal. That is a significant chunk of money to spend on someone past their statistical prime years, but given the status of the current free agent market, it comes across as a bargain. He spent a week at multiple minor league levels before coming up to stay with Houston. Gurriel made quite a bit of contact having barely been exposed to major league pitching, but put up numbers that we associate with a reserve middle infielder. It is easier to project him hitting .290 than it is to say he will hit 20 homers.

One of the most celebrated Cuban baseball players in recent years, Gurriel is already 32 years old so he is likely past his peak. Still, he's thought to be quickly ready for the majors after signing with the Astros in July after defecting from Cuba in February.

Gourriel is regarded as Cuba's top baseball player and perhaps the top player in the world not playing in MLB or Japan. The third baseman made a strong impression in the 2009 WBC with two home runs. He's a player to grab in keeper leagues that allow international players, but he's given no hint he intends to defect.

Gourriel is regarded as Cuba's top baseball player and perhaps the top player in the world not playing in MLB or Japan. The third baseman made a strong impression in the 2009 WBC with two home runs. He's a player to grab in keeper leagues that allow international players, but he's given no hint he intends to defect.

Gourriel is regarded as Cuba's top baseball player and perhaps the top player in the world not playing in MLB or Japan. The third baseman made a strong impression in the 2009 WBC with two home runs. He's a player to grab in keeper leagues that allow international players.

Gourriel, Cuba's revelation of the 2006 World Baseball Classic, had another strong season in 2007. In the Cuban Serie Nacional, Gourriel hit .345/.427/.503 with eight home runs and a league-leading 28 doubles in 89 games, with an incredible 23:50 K:BB ratio in 348 at-bats. In major tournament play (the Pan-Am Games and World Cup) for the Cuban national team, Gourriel hit .276 (16-for-58) with four homers in 15 games. Gourriel, still just 23, will play for Cuba at the 2008 Olympics as well as WBC II in 2009, and we can always hope for that change in the political climate that would allow this talented player to join an MLB team. In dynasty leagues, he's well worth stashing away.

Gourriel proved at the WBC that he's one of the best ballplayers on the planet, leading Cuba to the title game and making the all-tourney team in the process. If there's ever a real change in the political situation in Cuba, the 22-year-old infielder will be swarmed by agents and MLB brass immediately. Gourriel hit .347 (43-for-124) with seven homers in 34 games for Cuba last year (including Olympic qualifying and the WBC), and also led the Cuban Serie Nacional with 27 HR and 92 RBI -- great marks for a 90-game season. He even added 21 steals. He should be rostered in any serious dynasty league, because you just never know when he'll be available to MLB teams.

Gourriel hit eight homers in just 11 games at the World Cup in September and hit a resounding .319/.385/.894 to lead Cuba to the title. Although he's started at second base for Cuba in the past, Gourriel plays third base and bats cleanup in Cuba's lineup. Standard caveats about the reported age of Cuban players apply, but even if Gourriel might be a little bit older than his state-reported age of 21, he'd be one heck of a prospect if he ever became available to MLB teams.

Note: first name spelled "Yulieski" by some media sources.