Corbin Burnes

30-Year-Old PitcherSP

Free Agent

2024 Stats

W-L

15-9

ERA

2.92

WHIP

1.10

181

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Burnes was everything the Orioles could have hoped for when they traded for him, as he took the ball 32 times during the regular season and pitched to a 2.92 ERA, seventh lowest among qualified starters. The right-hander added eight innings of one-run ball in his lone postseason start before Baltimore was bounced by Kansas City. Now a free agent, Burnes is about to be paid like an ace long term, and deservedly so. There may be some slight yellow flags, including a 23.1 K% last season, down significantly from just a couple years ago, coinciding with a drop in whiff rate on his curveball. Burnes is now on the wrong side of 30, but throwing hard, limiting walks and racking up innings are among the many things he still does well on a baseball field. The underlying numbers over the past couple years point to him being more of a low-to-mid 3.00s ERA pitcher, but if the strikeouts ramp back up it would help to stave off regression. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'3"

Weight 225

DOB 10/22/1994

Born Bakersfield, CA

College Saint Mary''s

Drafted 4th Rd 2016 MIL

Turns down qualifying offer

PFree Agent

November 19, 2024

Burnes rejected the Orioles' $21.05 million qualifying offer Tuesday, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.

ANALYSIS
This was simply a formality, as Burnes is set to cash in on a big long-term deal this offseason. According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Dodgers and Orioles are the frontrunners to land Burnes, so he'll surely be on a team that projects to win a lot of games with a quality defense behind him.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Corbin Burnes generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Corbin Burnes generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-11%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-8%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-26%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-6%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.196	1168	317	92	209	26	7	25
Since 2022vs Right	.219	1197	307	73	241	38	1	42
2024vs Left	.216	373	81	24	75	8	0	8
2024vs Right	.235	411	100	24	90	13	1	14
2023vs Left	.170	388	112	40	58	7	1	7
2023vs Right	.229	396	88	26	83	12	0	15
2022vs Left	.203	407	124	28	76	11	6	10
2022vs Right	.190	390	119	23	68	13	0	13
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-15%

ERA on Road

2024

-2%

ERA on Road

2023

-35%

ERA on Road

2022

-7%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.34	1.13	290.2	19	12	0	10.0	2.5	1.1
Since 2022Away	2.83	0.96	299.1	18	13	0	9.1	2.5	1.0
2024Home	2.94	1.28	101.0	8	5	0	8.6	2.5	0.8
2024Away	2.89	0.90	93.1	7	4	0	8.1	1.9	1.3
2023Home	4.28	1.21	80.0	4	3	0	9.0	3.5	1.4
2023Away	2.77	0.97	113.2	6	5	0	9.5	2.8	0.8
2022Home	3.04	0.92	109.2	7	4	0	11.9	1.8	1.1
2022Away	2.83	1.02	92.1	5	4	0	9.6	2.8	0.9
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Stat Review

How does Corbin Burnes compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.77

K/9

8.4

BB/9

2.2

HR/9

1.0

Fastball

97.0 mph

ERA

2.92

WHIP

1.10

BABIP

.280

GB/FB

1.56

Left On Base

75.2%

Exit Velocity

81.5 mph

Barrels/BBE

3.7%

Spin Rate

2705 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

20.6%

Swinging Strike

13.1%

Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

The right-hander's 2023 got off to an inauspicious start, with an ugly arbitration battle publicly straining the relationship between Burnes and the Brewers. Always the consummate professional, Burnes put together another highly successful campaign despite some hiccups, leading qualified National League starters in WHIP while reaching 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive season. His swing-and-miss dominance took a hit as Burnes averaged just over a strikeout per inning (25.5 K%), coinciding with a dip in fastball velocity. His sinking fastball let him down and the 10 wins were a disappointment, but Burnes has four above-average pitches to lean on and still projects as a fantasy ace after being traded to the Orioles in February. If the strikeouts tick back up, Burnes could find himself in the Cy Young discussion once again.

Burnes followed up his NL Cy Young season in impressive fashion. While he didn't bring home the hardware in the National League again, the right-hander was right up there among the best pitchers in the game no matter how you slice it. At 27 years old, Burnes fanned 243 batters -- second in baseball behind only Gerrit Cole -- and surpassed 200 innings for the first time, adding 35 frames to his 2021 total. There is little to nitpick in the underlying numbers, though Burnes hit some bumps in the road in the second half, with his ERA finishing at 3.97 after the All-Star break. A corresponding dip in his strikeout rate after the break (to 27.9 percent) perhaps gives reason for pause heading into 2023, but the overall body of work was stellar. Burnes should still be treated as one of MLB's elite aces, even if he won't get to pick on the NL Central quite as much with the balanced schedule.

Once a top prospect, Burnes reached full bloom in 2021, going 11-5 with 234 strikeouts and only seven homers allowed in 167 innings for the Brewers en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award. His 30.4 K-BB% was best among qualified pitchers -- nearly seven strikeouts for every walk he issued. The breakout can be easily traced back to 2020 when Burnes added a cut fastball and changeup to his arsenal while dialing back his straight fastball and slider. That repertoire shakeup was in response to a big step backward on the field in 2019 when Burnes allowed 17 homers in just 49 innings at the big-league level. He spent some time on the IL early on in 2021 following a positive COVID test and later dealt with a minor knee problem, but this version of Burnes we've seen the past two seasons is elite and worthy of late-first/early-second round consideration in fantasy leagues.

It wasn't clear how Burnes would be utilized in 2020 after having a rough go of it the year before, but he and the Brewers found something that clicked, and Burnes wound up finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting after a dominant campaign. Burnes entirely revamped his pitch mix last season, adding a cut fastball and changeup to the mix and severely cutting his reliance on his fastball and slider. When it was all said and done, Burnes posted a 2.02 ERA, a mark that would have ranked fifth in the league had he recorded one more out to qualify. His K/9 rate would have also ranked an elite third among all starters. Burnes was a well-regarded prospect coming up in the Brewers' system, so he has the pedigree to match his results. He will essentially be a lock to open the season as the Brewers' No. 2 starter.

There were high hopes for Burnes heading into 2019 after the right-hander excelled in a relief role during his debut season in 2018. However, things did not go according to plan. He opened the season in Milwaukee's rotation but was sent to the minors after struggling to a 10.70 ERA and allowing 11 home runs through his first four starts (17.2 innings). Burnes spent the rest of the season bouncing between Triple-A and the big-league bullpen, missing time with a shoulder injury while struggling at both stops. Control was an issue for Burnes; he averaged 3.7 BB/9 and often caught too much of the plate when throwing strikes, as evidenced by his 12% barrel rate. Burnes finished the year with an 8.82 ERA in 49 innings, but underlying numbers suggest he was a bit unlucky (6.09 FIP, 3.38 xFIP). He registered a 21.3 K-BB%, which underscores his potential. Burnes should get another chance to start in 2020.

Burnes remains a starter long-term, but the Brewers let him get his feet wet at the major-league level as a reliever, and the move worked brilliantly, as Burnes got to complete his development and provide excellent innings during the team's playoff push. His stuff played up in relief, with Burnes posting a 15.2% swinging-strike rate and a 47.4 O-Contact%, nearly 20 percentage points lower than the league average. So when hitters swung at Burnes' pitches out of the strike zone, they very rarely even put bat to ball let alone connected for base hits. The Brewers want him to keep starting, and he will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot during spring training. If he does not earn a spot there, it's likely he will work out of the bullpen and be next on deck should a spot open up.

Burnes showed flashes of brilliance while throwing just 35.2 innings in his 2016 professional debut, but that turned out to be a sign of things to come, as he flat-out dominated minor-league hitters in 2017. He fell just short of averaging a strikeout per inning at both the High-A and Double-A levels, but was otherwise spectacular, limiting opposing hitters to just a .200 batting average while also posting a sparkling 4.20 K/BB and giving up just three home runs. He doesn't possess elite strikeout potential, but he will at least be serviceable in that area given his deep, high-quality arsenal, which includes a mid-90s fastball, a hard slider, and also a curveball and changeup. Burnes figures to get a run at the Triple-A level before he makes his big-league debut, but as long as he does not fall victim to the thin air of Colorado Springs, he stands a good chance to join the Brewers at some point in the summer of 2018.

Burnes was completely off the prospect radar his freshman year at St. Mary's, when he posted a 6.18 ERA as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen. But over the next three years, Burnes developed into a major prospect, thanks in particular to a notable summer in the Cape Cod League following his junior season. Now he owns a fastball that sits 92-95 to go with a changeup and breaking ball, all capable of drawing whiffs. That was enough to earn Burnes a fourth-round selection from the Brewers. He looked fantastic in his first professional action, as he struck out 41 batters and allowed just eight runs over 35.2 innings between rookie ball and Low-A Wisconsin. At 21 years old, he should be able to handle batters at those levels, but his stock will be worth watching as he progresses up the ladder.

More Fantasy News

Receives qualifying offer

PFree Agent

November 4, 2024

Baltimore offered Burnes a $21.05 million qualifying offer Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.