NFL Game Previews: Saints-Seahawks Matchup

New Orleans at Seattle (+4.5), o/u 43.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Has Jameis Winston finally gotten the memo? After that sketchy Week 2 performance against the Panthers, he's put up a 7:1 TD:INT over the Saints' last three games, resulting in two wins and an OT loss to the Giants that really shouldn't have happened. His receiving corps doesn't look quite ready to be reinforcements, but Tre'Quan Smith should be back soon even if Michael Thomas' timeline remains a mystery. This is still mainly Alvin Kamara's offense, though, and the fifth-year back averaged exactly 120 scrimmage yards in those three games with three total TDs. The last 12 seasons, Sean Payton is 9-3 after a bye, and this year he gets the added bonus of not having to deal with Russell Wilson. Geno Smith's first start in ages last week didn't go so well, and the downgrade at QB for the Seahawks can't be overstated. Seattle's also one of those teams with all three of its top RBs on the injured list (I'm being generous with Rashaad Penny there), but Smith may not be able to take advantage of the offense's biggest remaining assets, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Bobby Wagner also might not have enough help on the defense to stem the bleeding while Russ is stewing on the sidelines instead of cooking. The Seahawks are already four games back of the Cards in the NFC West, and fading fast if they don't come up with something semi-miraculous here.

The Skinny

NO injuries: QB Taysom Hill (questionable, concussion), WR Thomas (out, ankle), WR Smith (IR, hamstring), WR Deonte Harris (questionable, hamstring), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, elbow), C Erik McCoy (questionable, calf), K Wil Lutz (IR, abdomen)

SEA injuries: QB Wilson (IR, finger), RB Chris Carson (IR, neck), RB Alex Collins (questionable, groin), RB Penny (IR, calf), WR Metcalf (questionable, foot), WR Dee Eskridge (IR, concussion), LG Damien Lewis (questionable, shoulder), RT Brandon Shell (questionable, ankle), CB Sidney Jones (questionable, concussion) 

NO DFS targets: Kamara $8,900 DK / $9,200 FD (SEA 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

SEA DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: Saints DEF $3,400 DK / $4,700 FD (t-30th in sacks, SEA t-1st in giveaways)

SEA DFS fades: Collins $5,300 DK / $6,500 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Gerald Everett $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE) 

Key stat: NO is first in red-zone conversions at 92.9 percent; SEA is t-7th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 35-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara racks up 140 combined and two touchdowns. Winston throws for 280 yards and TDs to Marquez Callaway and Kenny Stills. Penny starts for SEA and manages 60 yards in his return. Geno throws for 220 yards and a score to Lockett. Saints 31-13

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Yep, this is just what everyone wanted, an epic running back showdown between Chuba Hubbard and Devontae Booker. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley both remain sidelined for the respective clubs, which means big workloads for the backups, and more pressure on two quarterbacks who have a history of buckling. Sam Darnold has a 4:6 TD:INT in the last three games, all Panther losses, and without CMac around to demand defensive attention he's looked lost the last couple weeks. For his part, Daniel Jones played like he was still concussed last week against the Rams, tossing three picks and managing a paltry 242 passing yards despite 51 attempts. Considering how little healthy skill talent he had around him, though, it's hard to pin it all on him. Barkley's out, Kenny Golladay seems headed for his second straight DNP (and third straight statistical no-show), Kadarius Toney's breakout got hobbled before it had really taken off ... even patient zero for the epidemic of lower-body injuries sweeping the Giants' wideout corps, John Ross, is predictably dealing with hamstring issues. Carolina has overall the healthier roster, but this one likely will be decided by whichever QB is able to keep it together for a few hours.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB McCaffrey (IR, hamstring), WR Terrace Marshall (out, concussion), LT Cameron Erving (questionable, illness), LG Pat Elflein (IR, hamstring), LB Shaq Thompson (out, foot), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, quadriceps)

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (out, ankle), WR Golladay (out, knee), WR Toney (out, ankle), WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, hamstring), WR Darius Slayton (questionable, hamstring), WR Ross (questionable, hamstring), TE Evan Engram (questionable, calf), LT Andrew Thomas (IR, ankle), LG Ben Bredeson (questionable, hand) 

CAR DFS targets: none

NYG DFS targets: Shepard $5,600 DK / $6,500 FD (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

CAR DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: Slayton $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYG are t-23rd in third-down conversions at 37.7 percent; CAR is second in third-down defense at 29.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hubbard racks up 100 combined yards and a TD. Darnold throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Ian Thomas. Booker gains 60 yards. Jones throws for 260 yards and scores to Shepard and Dante Pettis but gets picked off twice. Panthers 23-17

N.Y. Jets (+7) at New England, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

A lot of times commentators will say stuff like "This is Team X's Super Bowl" about a relatively meaningless Week 7 contest, but in this case, a win would legit feel nearly like winning the Super Bowl for the Jets. The Pats own them more thoroughly than Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, and Zach Wilson was nine years old the last time the franchise won a regular-season game in Gillette Stadium. It hasn't seemed to matter who's at quarterback for New England either, and they won handily in the first meeting this season in Week 2 after Cam Newton picked up two victories last year. I do think the Jets are on the right track in their rebuild, but it's not a fluke they have the lowest-scoring offense in the league — I mean, they had trouble putting up points against the Falcons, for pity's sake. As for the Patriots, they only have two wins in 2021, but three of their four losses have been by six points or less, including last week's utterly ridiculous game against the Cowboys. The defense is still stout, if not elite, and Mac Jones looks pretty sharp, so they should be OK in the long run. That probably won't get them into the playoffs this year, but it should be more than enough to handle the Jets. Again.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (doubtful, hamstring), LB Jarrad Davis (IR, ankle)

NE injuries: RG Shaq Mason (questionable, abdomen), RT Trent Brown (IR, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs), LB Kyle Van Noy (questionable, groin), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, hamstring), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, knee)

NYJ DFS targets: none

NE DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers $5,300 DK / $5,700 FD (NYJ 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)

NYJ DFS fades: Corey Davis $5,200 DK / $5,900 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are t-28th in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent; NE is t-5th in red-zone defense at 47.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 11-0 NE, average score 29-11 NE, average margin of victory 19 points. Seven of the last eight NE have been by 14 points or more, and NYJ have not won a road game in this rivalry since a 28-21 victory in the divisional round of the 2011 playoffs, and haven't won a regular-season game in Gillette Stadium since Week 11 of 2008

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Michael Carter manages 60 combined yards. Wilson throws for 210 yards and gets picked off twice. Damien Harris grinds out 80 yards and a TD. Jones throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Nelson Agholor and Meyers for his first career NFL score. Patriots 27-6

Kansas City at Tennessee (+5.5), o/u 57.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Badly as Kansas City has played at times through the first six weeks, it still is only one game out of first place in the AFC West and has plenty of time to get back on track. The problem is, the team really can't wring anything more out of Patrick Mahomes and the offense, so it's going to come down to the defense rising even to the level of mediocre (as it did down the stretch in their Super Bowl campaign) to position it for a run. Mahomes, and the team in general really, have been very sloppy with the ball, but can you blame him? He only has two guys he trusts to throw the ball to, and knows if he fails to score at least 30 points the team is doomed. The Titans come into this one as the poster boys for a letdown game after beating the Bills on a last-minute goal-line stand Monday, but I tend not to pay attention to those kinds of short-term narratives. They won last week because a) Buffalo couldn't stop Derrick Henry and b) they made just enough plays on defense, and that's a formula that can easily produce another victory against a one-sided team like Kansas City. It's fair to wonder how far it can take them in the long run, though. They're in first place in the AFC South largely because no one else seems to want the job. The passing game is still struggling to find a rhythm even when Julio Jones is relatively healthy, and the defense has been generally poor, a problem exacerbated by an injury-ravaged secondary. It's one thing to rely on Mahomes to bail you out with 50-yard passes; it's quite another to rely on Henry to bail you out with 50-yard runs. Like K.C., Tennessee is going to need to fix something somewhere if they're going to be a true contender.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, knee), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, quadriceps), LG Joe Thuney (questionable, hand), DE Chris Jones (questionable, wrist), CB Charvarious Ward (questionable, quadriceps)

TEN injuries: WR Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Chester Rogers (out, groin), LT Taylor Lewan (out, head), LB Jayon Brown (IR, knee), OLB Bud Dupree (questionable, knee), CB Caleb Farley (IR, knee), CB Kristian Fulton (IR, hamstring)

KC DFS targets: Mecole Hardman $4,300 DK / $5,400 FD (TEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Byron Pringle $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS targets: Henry $9,200 DK / $11,000 FD (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

KC DFS fades: Travis Kelce $7,600 DK / $8,200 FD (TEN fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 60.3 percent, more than 10 points ahead of second-place BUF; TEN is 15th in third-down defense at 40.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, 12-14 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 340 yards and four TDs, one each to Hill, Hardman (who tops 100 yards), Pringle and Demarcus Robinson. Henry romps for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Tannehill throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Brown and Anthony Firkser. Kansas City 35-31

Washington (+8.5) at Green Bay, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It sums up where Ron Rivera and Washington are that they decided to switch kickers and basically troll headline writers by going with a guy named Blewitt. Taylor Heinicke remains under center but it's becoming increasingly clear he's not the answer at quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick is closing in on a return, but with the team's bye looming in Week 9, Rivera could just as easily leave "the kid" (I mean, Heinicke's already 28 years old), in place for another couple weeks before seeing what kind of Fitzmagic the veteran has left down the stretch. It might help if Heinicke has any skill players fully healthy, but Washington's hardly the only team in that boat. The Football Team aren't even the only team in their division dealing with that kind of attrition. This would be a good time for that front seven dripping with expended draft capital to step up, but that's easier said than done against Aaron Rodgers, even if he might be missing two regular starters on his offensive line. Rodgers has a 12:1 TD:INT while completing 69.0 percent of his passes with an 8.2 YPA in five consecutive wins, chipping in a couple rushing TDs too. Maybe they look past Washington with road games against Arizona and Kansas City upcoming, but the way these two teams look, the Packers could win even if they don't take this contest entirely seriously.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Fitzpatrick (IR, hip), RB Antonio Gibson (questionable, shin), WR Curtis Samuel (out, groin), TE Logan Thomas (IR, hamstring), RG Brandon Scherff (out, knee), RT Samuel Cosmi (out, ankle), CB William Jackson (questionable, knee)

GB injuries: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (IR, hamstring), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), C Josh Myers (doubtful, knee), OLB Preston Smith (questionable, oblique), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder), CB Kevin King (questionable, shoulder), S Darnell Savage (questionable, concussion)

WAS DFS targets: none

GB DFS targets: Rodgers $7,500 DK / $7,900 FD (WAS 28th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed), Allen Lazard $4,200 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS fades: Adam Humphries $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is 14th in third-down conversions at 40.6 percent; WAS is 32nd in third-down defense at 57.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, 11-13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gibson plays but manages only 70 combined yards. Heinicke throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to DeAndre Carter but gets picked off twice. Aaron Jones racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and TDs to Davante Adams (who tops 100 yards) and Lazard. Packers 30-13

Atlanta at Miami (+2.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Falcons come out of their bye 2-3, with their two wins coming against the Giants and Jets, so it's really more like one and a half wins. The offense appears to be in decent shape — Cordarrelle Patterson has yet to cool off; he's topped 100 scrimmage yards or found the end zone in four consecutive games — while Kyle Pitts is starting to get the hang of this NFL things and the WR corps is healthy. It's their defense that's the issue. Only two teams have fewer turnovers, only three teams have fewer sacks, and as a result only one team has given up more points per game. Coordinator Dean Pees doesn't have a lot to work with, either, other than a couple leftovers pieces from the Dan Quinn era like Deion Jones and Grady Jarrett. Matt Ryan is probably going to get a lot of chances to try to win shootouts the rest of the way. Atlanta's still in better shape than Miami, which appears to be in a race with Denver to get their coach fired. The Dolphins are 1-5, dropping five straight after a one-point win over the Pats in their opener, and the last loss against the Jaguars had the look of a team that's just tuning out Brian Flores at this point. Flores has something of an injury excuse for now, as neither pricey cornerback is 100 percent healtlhy, and Tua Tagovailoa at least looked pretty good last week, but if losses pile up much further, expect a shakeup — whether that's Flores getting kicked to the curb, or that long-rumored Deshaun Watson trade.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RT Kaleb McGary (questionable, COVID-19), OLB Dante Fowler (IR, knee)

MIA injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), WR Preston Williams (questionable, groin), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), C Greg Mancz (questionable, groin), CB Xavien Howard (questionable, shoulder), CB Byron Jones (questionable, Achilles)

ATL DFS targets: Russell Gage $4,000 DK / $5,200 FD (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

MIA DFS targets: Jaylen Waddle $5,600 DK / $5,900 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ATL DFS fades: Falcons DEF $2,700 DK / $3,900 FD (29th in sacks, 30th in takeaways)

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL is fifth in third-down conversions at 45.8 percent; MIA is 31st in third-down defense at 52.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-80s, 12 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Patterson racks up 90 combined yards and a receiving score, while Mike Davis adds 60 yards and a TD. Ryan throws for 300 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Calvin Ridley and Gage. Myles Gaskin scampers for 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Tua throws for 270 yards and two scores, both to Waddle. Falcons 28-27

Cincinnati (+6) at Baltimore, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

No Week 7 contest is going to decide a division, but a win for the Ravens puts them two games up in the AFC North. Of course, that also means a Bengals win puts them into a tie for the division lead. Cincy's two losses have both come by a field goal, and the offense is looking like one of the more dangerous units in the league. Joe Burrow has tossed multiple TDs in every game this year and posted a YPA higher than 9.0 in four of six starts, a feat only Matthew Stafford has matched, and with all his skill players healthy, points should be fairly easy to come by. The defense has also stepped up — the Bengals are third in yards per play allowed and sixth in scoring drive percentage allowed, with top-10 rankings in other categories against both the run and the pass. The Ravens' 5-1 record, and five consecutive wins, including last week's dismantling of the Chargers, mark them as early Super Bowl contenders, though. Lamar Jackson looks good, Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are doing damage and the offense has kept on motoring despite the fact every back that steps into the lead role breaks down. The defense has arguably been more lucky than good, however, and getting that side of the ball healthy and focused over next week's bye could be key to the team's 2021 postseason fortunes.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR, knee), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring)

BAL injuries: RB Latavius Murray (out, ankle), WR Sammy Watkins (out, thigh), LT Ronnie Stanley (IR, ankle), LT Alejandro Villanueva (questionable, knee), LG Ben Cleveland (IR, knee), C Bradley Bozeman (questionable, back), LB Patrick Queen (questionable, thigh)

CIN DFS targets: C.J. Uzomah $3,000 DK / $5,200 FD (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

BAL DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: none

BAL DFS fades: Rashod Bateman $3,400 DK / $5,300 FD (CIN third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CIN is third in red-zone conversions at 83.3 percent; BAL is t-7th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 BAL, average score 26-16 BAL, average margin of victory 16 points. BAL has won five straight meetings by an average score of 32-11

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 280 yards and two scores, hitting Uzomah and Tee Higgins. Le'Veon Bell leads the BAL backfield with 60 scrimmage yards. Jackson throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Brown and Andrews while running in a score of his own. Bengals 27-21

Detroit (+15) at LA Rams, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

It's funny watching media narratives take root despite little to no evidence to support them. Dan Campbell apparently has the Lions' "playing hard," yet they're the only team in the NFL without a win and they just got their butts kicked at home by the Bengals. Campbell has publicly called out Jared Goff to take on more of a leadership role, like he's been the problem, but I guess there's no better time than in a two-way revenge game for him and Matthew Stafford. Even if Goff does step up, though, who's he going to throw it to? Tyrell Williams doesn't seem close to returning, T.J. Hockenson is banged up and D'Andre Swift still isn't quite 100 percent healthy. Kalif Raymond and Darren Fells don't exactly seem like a match for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. For his part, Stafford has gone Hollywood in the best way, leading the Rams to a 5-1 record and having them looking like Super Bowl contenders. The veteran QB is also putting himself in the MVP conversation as he takes aim at his second career campaign with 5,000 passing yards and 40 TDs, while also posting career highs in completion percentage and YPA. Last year for Detroit, he had eight completions of 40 yards or more — he already has seven through six games with Los Angeles. The Rams have also been this successful without Aaron Donald and the defense really being anything more than OK. If they get rolling, look out.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Swift (questionable, groin), WR Williams (IR, concussion), TE Hockenson (questionable, knee), LT Taylor Decker (IR, finger), OLB Trey Flowers (questionable, knee), CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (IR, thigh)

LAR injuries: RB Sony Michel (questionable, shoulder)

DET DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Stafford $7,100 DK / $8,100 FD (DET 32nd in YPA allowed, 31st in TD% allowed), Tyler Higbee $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

DET DFS fades: none

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are 13th in red-zone conversions at 63.0 percent; DET is 31st in red-zone defense at 86.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Swift manages 60 yards, while Jamaal Williams adds 50. Goff throws for 250 yards and a TD to Amon-Ra St. Brown, the first of his career, but he also gets picked off twice. Darrell Henderson erupts for 120 combined yards and two touchdowns. Stafford airs it out for 310 yards and three scores, finding Kupp (who tops 100 yards), Woods and Higbee. Rams 41-10

Philadelphia (+3) at Las Vegas, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The NFC East looks pretty much decided already, but if any non-Cowboys team is going to make things interesting, I suppose it's the 2-4 Eagles. Sure, they've lost four of their last five, but they kept things fairly close against the Bucs last week. Jalen Hurts has been as advertised — shaky as a passer, dynamic as a runner — and he's scored two TDs on the ground in each of the last two games while only throwing one total passing TD in those two contests. That's not a sustainable formula for success, but it does give them some ability to cause chaos. Speaking of chaos, there wasn't any for the Raiders last week, which makes you wonder if they were glad to see Jon Gruden gone. They're firmly in the hunt in the AFC West, and in all four of their wins Derek Carr has topped 340 passing yards with multiple touchdowns. (In the two losses ... ehh, not so much). Interim coach Rich Bisaccia also remembered the team paid big money in the offseason for Kenyan Drake, though this is still Josh Jacobs' backfield. The Raiders don't really seem like a real contender, but the defense is fifth in yards per play allowed — largely because the run defense has been soft enough to encourage teams to keep the ball on the ground. Consider that a ray of hope for anyone with fantasy shares in Miles Sanders.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), S Anthony Harris (questionable, groin)

LV injuries: LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe), CB Damon Arnette (IR, groin)

PHI DFS targets: Quez Watkins $3,900 DK / $5,300 FD (LV 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3)

LV DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is 13th in third-down conversions at 40.7 percent; PHI is 30th in third-down defense at 46.2 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Sanders gains 70 yards and a score. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 40 and a TD. Jacobs piles up 90 combined yards and a touchdown, while Drake adds 70 scrimmage yards. Carr throws for 320 yards and two TDs, hitting Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs. Raiders 30-17

Houston (+18.5) at Arizona, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Five consecutive losses for the Texans, and they may not have hit bottom yet. The average score in those losses was 30-11, and those blowouts were coming against the likes of the Panthers and Colts. Davis Mills has his one good performance against, bizarrely, the Patriots, but so far that's the only game in which he hasn't looked like a third-round rookie developmental project. Tyrod Taylor could be back at practice soon, but the team could easily decide to keep giving Mills reps in what's already a lost season, at least through Houston's Week 10 bye. Putting Taylor back under center really just pulls the offense's floor up a bit — maybe they'll lose 30-17 instead of 30-11. The Cards are, of course, the only undefeated team left in the league, but they might get a challenge next week at home against the Packers. In theory that means they could look past the Texans, but would it even matter if they did? Kyler Murray's been doing almost anything he wants on the field, including revive the career of A.J. Green, and when the offense suffered a key injury when Maxx Williams went down, they just traded for Zach Ertz to replace him. Combine that with an opportunistic defense that's allowed scoring drives only 26.6 percent of the time (second in the league, behind only the Bills), and they've earned their unblemished record.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Taylor (IR, hamstring), QB Deshaun Watson (out), WR Nico Collins (questionable, foot), WR Chris Conley (questionable, neck), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), C Justin Britt (questionable, knee), RT Marcus Cannon (IR, back)

ARI injuries: C Rodney Hudson (IR, ribs), LB Jordan Hicks (questionable, toe), OLB Chandler Jones (questionable, COVID-19)

HOU DFS targets: Chris Moore $3,600 DK / $5,200 FD (ARI 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

ARI DFS targets: Chase Edmonds $5,600 DK / $6,200 FD and James Conner $5,600 DK / $6,500 FD (HOU 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Cardinals DEF $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (third in takeaways, HOU 31st in points per game)

HOU DFS fades: Mills $4,900 DK / $6,400 FD (ARI second in passing DVOA, sixth in passing yards per game allowed), Collins $3,200 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR2), Jordan Akins $2,600 DK / $4,600 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is eighth in third-down conversions at 43.5 percent; HIOU is 16th in third-down defense at 40.6 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: David Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 50 combined yards. Mills throws for 220 yards and gets picked off three times, one of which Budda Baker returns to the house. Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score, while Conner adds 60 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding DeAndre Hopkins and Ertz in his team debut. Cardinals 35-6

Chicago (+12.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Justin Fields is 2-2 in four starts to begin his career, but he's very much been a spectator either way. The rookie has topped a 60 percent completion rate only once, and has as many games of less than 100 passing yards than more than 200. More distressingly for anyone with fantasy shares in him, he hasn't rushed for a touchdown since Week 1 and has generally been a non-factor on the ground. Not putting a player in position to shine is par for the course for Matt Nagy, but even if his coach is in his ear telling him to stay in the pocket, it's still weird that Fields isn't running more just on pure instinct while working behind an offensive line that isn't affording him much protection (Chicago is last in sacks allowed and sack percentage allowed). The revolving door at running back doesn't help either, although Khalil Herbert looked solid last week in his first career start. The Bucs are cruising along at 5-1, thumping four also-rans, losing to the Rams and narrowly escaping against the Cowboys. The aging parts of the offense are beginning to break down, but as long as Tom Brady isn't one of those parts, Tampa Bay can still score points in a gazillion ways. (I do wonder if they could get some value back for Ronald Jones before the trade deadline, since Bruce Arians seems to have no intention of using him, but a team with dreams of repeating as champs probably isn't looking to trade useful depth). At some point they'll need to patch together a healthy, effective secondary, but for now out-scoring the opposition is working just fine.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB David Montgomery (IR, knee), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), RB Damien Williams (doubtful, COVID-19), WR Allen Robinson (questionable, ankle), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee)

TB injuries: WR Antonio Brown (out, ankle), TE Rob Gronkowski (out, ribs), TE O.J. Howard (questionable, ankle), LB Lavonte David (out, ankle), OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, shoulder), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR, elbow), CB Richard Sherman (out, hamstring)

CHI DFS targets: none

TB DFS targets: Mike Evans $6,500 DK / $7,100 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Buccaneers DEF $4,000 DK / $4,400 FD (CHI 32nd in sacks allowed, 30th in points per game)

CHI DFS fades: Khalil Herbert $5,200 DK / $6,000 FD (TB first in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB is third in third-down conversions at 49.4 percent; CHI is 18th in third-down defense at 41.9 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Herbert manages 40 yards. Fields throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Allen Robinson but gets picked off twice. Leonard Fournette rumbles for 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Brady throws for 350 yards and three more TDs, hitting Evans (who tops 100 yards) twice and Tyler Johnson once. Buccaneers 38-13

Indianapolis (+4) at San Francisco, o/u 44.0
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I'm still not sure what make of the Colts. Their 2-4 record isn't good, but the two wins have come in their last three games with a wild overtime loss to the Ravens sandwiched between. Even with the huge injuries along the offensive line, Jonathan Taylor has been productive — 100-plus scrimmage yards in each of those three games with five total touchdowns, which bodes well for him later in the year once Quenton Nelson is healthy. T.Y. Hilton is also back, at least in spirit, and Carson Wentz is mostly avoiding mistakes. The Titans certainly don't look uncatchable in the AFC South, so maybe that will be good enough. Out in San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan is still trying to make the pieces fit together. He's turning back to Jimmy Garoppolo under center as Trey Lance is hurt and frankly didn't look quite ready for regular snaps, and through the air it's mostly been the Deebo Samuel Show. As per usual in the backfield, predicting who the next man up will be is basically just a dart throw. Elijah Mitchell seems like the top guy, but he's really only had one productive performance, and that was back in Week 1. Does that open the door a crack for Trey Sermon, or eventually JaMycal Hasty or Jeff Wilson? Who knows?

The Skinny

IND injuries: WR Hilton (questionable, quadriceps), WR Parris Campbell (IR, foot), LG Nelson (IR, ankle), RT Braden Smith (out, foot), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), CB Rock Ya-Sin (out, ankle), S Julian Blackmon (out, Achilles)

SF injuries: QB Lance (out, knee), RB Wilson (out, knee), RB Hasty (IR, ankle), TE George Kittle (IR, calf), LT Trent Williams (doubtful, ankle), K Robbie Gould (IR, groin), DT Javon Kinlaw (out. knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (IR, groin)

IND DFS targets: Zach Pascal $4,300 DK / $5,200 FD (SF 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS targets: Garoppolo $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (IND 29th in passing DVOA, 32nd in TD% allowed), Brandon Aiyuk $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: none

SF DFS fades: Mitchell $5,100 DK / $5,800 FD (IND first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: SF is second in red-zone conversions at 90.9 percent; IND is t-18th in red-zone defense at 65.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 17 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor picks up 80 yards and a score. Wentz throws for 240 yards and a TD to Pascal. Mitchell leads the SF backfield with 50 yards. Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and three touchdowns to Samuel, Aiyuk and Charlie Woerner. 49ers 24-17

Denver (+2) at Cleveland, o/u 41.0 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

This game could wind up setting a record for program sales as fans try to figure out who the heck these guys are (is that even still a thing, buying physical programs at stadiums?). The Broncos are still down Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler on offense and Bradley Chubb and now Alexander Johnson on defense, and both Teddy Bridgewater and Noah Fant have been limping during practice this week. The Browns scoff at that list of wounded like a Yorkshireman. Cleveland will roll into this one down both its elite running backs, and potentially down both its top wide receivers, both starting tackles and its starting center. Oh yeah, and Baker Mayfield has already been ruled out as he tries to put off surgery on a full labrum tear in his non-throwing shoulder. Thursday games are volatile anyway, but this one is especially impossible to predict considering one team could be down eight of its normal 11 starters on offense. Could the Browns rally behind Case Keenum and beat a Broncos squad that's lost three straight? Absolutely. Could they fall apart completely and not be able to score against a defense that still ranks fourth in points per game allowed despite the team's recent swoon? Absolutely. If Bridgewater plays, I'm inclined to think Denver's the better play — and the line has already shifted a field goal or more in light of the Mayfield news — but if it's Keenum versus Drew Lock ... well, in that scenario the under is going to look even more appealing than it already is. If you need another reason to fade the patchwork Cleveland offense, remember that Keenum's one good season came in Minnesota, when he was playing his home games in a dome, and it'll be a windy night on the shores of Lake Erie.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: QB Bridgewater (questionable, foot), WR Jeudy (IR, ankle), TE Fant (questionable, foot), LT Garrett Boles (questionable, knee), LB Johnson (IR, pectoral), OLB Chubb (IR, ankle)

CLE injuries: QB Mayfield (out, shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (out, calf), RB Kareem Hunt (IR, calf), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, shoulder), WR Jarvis Landry (IR, knee), TE David Njoku (questionable, knee), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, ankle), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, ankle) 

DEN DFS targets: Courtland Sutton $10,000 DK / $12,500 FD (CLE 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)

CLE DFS targets: Donovan Peoples-Jones $6,400 DK / $8,500 FD (DEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Browns DEF (t-3rd in sacks, DEN 30th in sacks allowed)

DEN DFS fades: Melvin Gordon $7,400 DK / $10,500 FD and Javonte Williams $7,000 DK / $9,000 FD (CLE third is rushing DVOA, sixth in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

CLE DFS fades: D'Ernest Johnson $4,600 DK / $10,000 FD and Demetric Felton $5,000 DK / $8,000 FD (DEN fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: CLE is 27th in red-zone conversions at 54.5 percent; DEN is 11th in red-zone defense at 54.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, 16-17 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams leads the DEN backfield with 50 yards and a TD, while Gordon adds 40 yards. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Sutton and Tim Patrick. Johnson manages 70 yards, while Felton chips in 50 combined yards. Keenum throws for 220 yards and a score to a returning Landry but gets picked off twice. Broncos 24-10

Last week's record: 9-5, 6-8 ATS, 3-10-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 63-31, 48-45-1 ATS, 42-51-1 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1177-703-6, 907-912-67 ATS, 652-695-27 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)