NFL Game Previews: Patriot-Bills Matchup

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Updated on December 5, 2021 10:29PM EST

New England (+2.5) at Buffalo, o/u 43.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The week's marquee matchup could end up being the Super Bowl for fans of old-school football, as it'll feature two of the league's best defenses playing under potential nasty conditions. The Patriots come into Monday having won six consecutive games to take the lead in the AFC East, toppling the likes of the Chargers and Browns along the way. Only the Bolts put up more than 13 points against them during that stretch, but it's not like they've just been scraping by — the offense has averaged more than 35 points a game during the winning streak, routing the Jets 54-13 and thumping Cleveland 45-7 among the victories. Mac Jones has had occasional rookie lapses but has posted a YPA of 8.0 or better in three straight, while the backfield is suddenly giving the opposition fits with a thunder-and-thunder duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. On paper, the Bills are the more talented squad with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs leading the way, and statistically the defense is right there with the Pats' unit or even better, but there's two potential Achilles heels Bill Belichick could be targeting. The loss of Tre'Davious White can't be overstated, and while Buffalo still has a deep secondary he still leaves a big hole. More worryingly for Bills fans, the team has been steamrolled by both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor this season, and they even had a bit of

New England (+2.5) at Buffalo, o/u 43.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Skinny

NE injuries: C David Andrews (questionable, shoulder), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf), K Nick Folk (questionable, knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, ribs), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, COVID-19)

BUF injuries: LG Jon Feliciano (IR-R, calf), CB White (IR, knee)

NE DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Bills DEF $2,900 DK / $4,500 FD (t-3rd in takeaways, second in points per game allowed)

NE DFS fades: Jones $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (BUF first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Jakobi Meyers $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1), Nelson Agholor $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Kendrick Bourne $5,200 DK / $5,800 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

BUF DFS fades: Allen $7,900 DK / $8,800 FD (NE second in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Diggs $8,000 DK / $8,300 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1), Cole Beasley $4,400 DK / $5,700 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR3), Dawson Knox $4,700 DK / $5,900 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NE is 24th in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent; BUF is seventh in red-zone defense at 51.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NE, average score 22-17 NE, average margin of victory 15 points. Only three of the last 10 meetings have been decided by less than 12 points. BUF swept the season series last year to snap a seven-game losing streak in the rivalry

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 20s, 19-21 mph wind, 10-25 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Harris adds 70 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards. Devin Singletary leads the BUF running backs with 50 yards. Allen is the difference, throwing for less than 200 yards as well but tossing a TD to Emmanuel Sanders while running in a score of his own. Bills 14-10

N.Y. Giants (+4) at Miami, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Giants continue to put up a fight even though their season is basically over, winning three of their last five, and only Tom Brady has put up more than 20 points against their defense over that stretch. Not bad for a roster with five linebackers and six defensive backs on IR, including key pieces like Blake Martinez and Jabrill Peppers. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, at least, should emerge unscathed from this mess once it gets blown up in the offseason — heck, he might even get Joe Judge's job if the new GM doesn't bring in someone from the outside to take the reins. Daniel Jones is also on shaky ground when it comes to being part of the team's inevitable new direction, especially if the offense doesn't look any worse with Mike Glennon under center while Jones is out. The Dolphins' record isn't much better, but at 5-7 with four consecutive wins, they are making some noise in the AFC wild-card race, even if there are six teams between them and a spot in the postseason. Miami, too, is mostly relying on defense for their recent success, allowing 11.5 points a game over that winning streak, but the only really dangerous offense it's faced in that stretch is Baltimore. The other three games came against the Texans (32nd in PPG), Jets (28th) and Panthers (23rd), a group the Giants (26th) fit into quite comfortably. Tua Tagovailoa continues to get by with Jaylen Waddle and spare parts as receiving options, but DeVante Parker could be back, making things a lot more interesting for the Dolphins on that side of the ball. Tua's completed 80 percent or better of his passes in three of his last four starts, and overall his numbers have taken a noticeable step forward in his second season. He's not elite, but as long as the defense is, a 7.3 YPA and 70.5 percent completion rate on the year will get the job done.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Jones (out, neck), WR Sterling Shepard (doubtful, quadriceps), WR Kadarius Toney (doubtful, quadriceps), WR John Ross (questionable, illness), RT Nate Solder (questionable, elbow), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, quadriceps)

MIA injuries: RB Phillip Lindsay (doubtful, ankle), WR Parker (IR-R, shoulder), WR Will Fuller (IR, finger), C Michael Deiter (IR, foot), C Greg Mancz (IR, ankle)

NYG DFS targets: none

MIA DFS targets: Myles Gaskin $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (NYG 31st in rushing DVOA, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 27th in YPC allowed)

NYG DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 43.3 percent; MIA is fifth in red-zone defense at 51.1 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Saquon Barkley manages 80 combined yards. Glennon throws for 220 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does hit Evan Engram for a score. Gaskin picks up 70 yards and a TD. Tagovailoa throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Parker in his return. Dolphins 20-13

Indianapolis at Houston (+9), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Colts just can't seem to get to the top of the hill this year. Last week's loss to the Bucs leaves them still two games back of the Titans in the AFC South, and while Tennessee is reeling, each week that slips by without cutting into that lead gets Indy closer to being stuck with a wild card, or even missing the playoffs entirely. Jonathan Taylor has been all but unstoppable — it was all Tampa Bay's outstanding run defense could do to hold him to less than 100 scrimmage yards, and he found the end zone for the ninth consecutive game — but as long as Carson Wentz keeps Wentzing it up every now and then, it's tough to see this team as a true contender. He's thrown zero picks in their six wins this season, but four in their last two losses. The Texans shouldn't be a threat here as they stay in the hunt for the second overall pick in next year's draft (I'm conceding No. 1 to the Lions unless they do something stupid), but these two division rivals have made a habit of keeping things close. Tyrod Taylor might not be a huge upgrade on Davis Mills after all, but it's not like either QB has a lot of help around them, and he at least seems to give them a better floor, if not much higher a ceiling. This is a team that hasn't scored more than 22 points in a game since Week 1, and that was against the Jags so it hardly counts. Heck, the last two games with Taylor back under center marked the first time the Texans had even scored double digits in consecutive weeks since their first two games of the year. Yikes.

The Skinny

IND injuries: TE Jack Doyle (questionable, knee), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), DT DeForest Buckner (questionable, knee), S Khari Willis (IR, calf), S Andrew Sendejo (questionable, calf)

HOU injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (out), RB David Johnson (questionable, illness/thigh), WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, illness), WR Chris Conley (questionable, illness), WR Danny Amendola (out, knee), LT Laremy Tunsil (IR, thumb), C Justin Britt (IR, knee), RG Justin McCray (out, concussion), DE Jonathan Greenard (questionable, foot), LB Christian Kirksey (IR, thumb)

IND DFS targets: Jonathan Taylor $9,200 DK / $10,500 FD (HOU 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), Colts DEF $3,700 DK / $4,500 FD (first in takeaways, HOU 32nd in points per game)

HOU DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Nyheim Hines $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (HOU first in passing DVOA vs. RB)

HOU DFS fades: Nico Collins $3,100 DK / $5,200 FD (IND fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: IND is 11th in third-down conversions at 41.6 percent; HOU is 19th in third-down defense at 40.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 IND, average score 24-19 IND, average margin of victory eight points. IND has won six of the last seven meetings, but only two of the last 16 meetings have been decided by double-digit points – a 21-7 victory for IND in the 2018 postseason, and a 31-3 victory for IND in Week 6 this season

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Taylor erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Wentz throws for 240 yards and a score to Doyle. Rex Burkhead leads the HOU backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Taylor throws for less than 200 yards but hits Cooks for a score. Colts 21-20

Minnesota at Detroit (+7), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Vikings are only 5-6 and staring at the distant taillights of the Packers in the NFC North, but they're still right on the cusp of a wild card in a conference where only six teams have records above .500. Really, they could just as easily be 8-3 or something — all six of their losses have been by a single score, including last week's 34-26 stumble in San Francisco. Their bell-cow back has broken down once again, and he could be one more serious shoulder injury from being Dalvin Cooked, but Alexander Mattison isn't a huge downgrade and rookie speedster Kene Nwangwu could be a fun toy for offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to play with. This would be a good matchup to just let Kirk Cousins air it out anyway, even if that approach goes against every fiber of Mike Zimmer's being. Detroit will be without its own top back in D'Andre Swift, with Jamaal Williams also a reasonably capable fill-in, but that's about where the comparisons end between the clubs this season. The Lions would like nothing better than to get their first win of the year against a division rival, not to mention ending their long losing streak against the Vikes. They have held their last three opponents to 16 points or less since their bye, but the offense also hasn't scored more than 16 points during that stretch — and that was with Swift in the lineup. If they're even going to keep things close, they'll need help from a Minnesota squad that, to be fair, has kind of made playing up or down to the level of the opposition an art form.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Cook (out, shoulder), LT Christian Darrisaw (out, ankle), DE Everson Griffen (out, personal), OLB Anthony Barr (questionable, knee), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, biceps), CB Patrick Peterson (questionable, COVID-19)

DET injuries: RB Swift (out, shoulder), RT Penei Sewell (questionable, illness)

MIN DFS targets: Cousins $6,500 DK / $7,700 FD (DET 28th in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 28th in TD% allowed), Mattison $7,600 DK / $8,700 FD (DET 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Vikings DEF $3,200 DK / $4,600 FD (first in sacks, DET 30th in points per game)

DET DFS targets: Williams $5,400 DK / $6,500 FD (MIN 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed), Kalif Raymond $4,500 DK / $5,200 FD (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: Lions DEF $2,300 DK / $3,100 FD (31st in sacks, MIN t-1st in sacks allowed, second in giveaways)

Key stat: MIN is sixth in red-zone conversions at 67.6 percent; DET is 31st in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 MIN, average score 24-18 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. MIN has won eight straight meetings by an average score of 29-19

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Mattison piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Nwangwu also catches a touchdown pass. Cousins throws for 280 yards and a second score to Justin Jefferson, who tops 100 yards. Williams manages 80 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 240 yards and a TD to Raymond. Vikings 27-17

Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets (+6.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If you're a true believer in the idea that an MVP is "the player whose loss would have the biggest impact on his team," then you can make a solid argument for Jalen Hurts. He's far from the best player in the league, but his rushing has kept the Eagles afloat and in the playoff picture despite the fact he hasn't reached 200 passing yards in a game since Week 7. Philly's basically using the same formula Baltimore did early in Lamar Jackson's career, only it doesn't have a particularly great defense and the backfield isn't as stacked around the QB, which is why the Eagles are two games below .500 and came crashing back down to earth last week against the Giants. Hurts also apparently injured his ankle somewhere along the way in the loss, which might be why he "only" ran the ball eight times. If he can't go, Gardner Minshew would take the reins. Resting Hurts for this matchup to try to get him 100 percent healthy for the stretch run might not be the worst idea. The Jets are going nowhere, and while they did pull out a win against the Texans last week, it wasn't thanks to Zach Wilson. "Only" throwing one INT with zero TDs counts as improvement for the second overall pick in the 2021 draft, and while he is playing through a knee issue and just in general probably deserves a mulligan given the state of the team around him, Jets fans already have that sick feeling of deja vu in their stomachs after seeing the trajectory of Sam Darnold's career.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: QB Hurts (questionable, ankle), RB Jordan Howard (out, knee), RB Boston Scott (questionable, illness), RG Brandon Brooks (IR, pectoral), LB Davion Taylor (IR, knee)

NYJ injuries: RB Michael Carter (IR, knee), WR Corey Davis (questionable, groin), WR Keelan Cole (out, COVID-19), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), RT Morgan Moses (questionable, knee), RT Chuma Edoga (IR, knee), LB Quincy Williams (questionable, calf)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD or Minshew $4,000 DK / $6,100 FD (NYJ 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Miles Sanders $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (NYJ 30th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Quez Watkins $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (NYJ 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Dallas Goedert $4,500 DK / $5,800 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

NYJ DFS targets: Ryan Griffin $2,600 DK / $4,700 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Jets DEF $2,500 DK / $3,500 FD (32nd in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed)

Key stat: PHI is t-5th in third-down conversions at 45.4 percent; NYJ are 25th in third-down defense at 43.1 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders runs for 90 yards and a score. Minshew starts and throws for 240 yards and TDs to Goedert and DeVonta Smith. Ty Johnson leads the NYJ backfield with 60 yards. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Eagles 21-9

Arizona at Chicago (+8), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

I thought teams were supposed to get healthier over their bye week? Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins still aren't practicing much for the Cards, and even standout corner Byron Murphy is now banged up. Given what the weather might be like in Chicago on Sunday afternoon, Arizona would be smart not to risk any of their stars on a wet track, putting Colt McCoy back under center for a fourth consecutive game. The Cards are in a tricky spot, though — they're only half a game up on the Packers for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so they have no margin for error left while waiting for Murray to get back 100 percent healthy. Fortunately, McCoy still has a solid assortment of options around him even without Hopkins, and the Bears might be in even worse shape than the Cards. Justin Fields probably won't play, nor will Allen Robinson. On the defensive side of the ball, Khalil Mack is gone for the year and Roquan Smith is limping. Andy Dalton has looked decent in six quarters since Fields went down, but chucking it around against the Lions doesn't really prove much. Even if this comes down to a battle of running games, David Montgomery doesn't necessarily have an edge on James Conner.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (questionable, ankle), RB Chase Edmonds (IR, ankle), WR Hopkins (hamstring), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, calf), CB Murphy (questionable, foot)

CHI injuries: QB Fields (doubtful, ribs), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Robinson (doubtful, hamstring), WR Marquise Goodwin (out, foot), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee), DT Akiem Hicks (out, ankle), LB Smith (questionable, hamstring)

ARI DFS targets: Hopkins $6,200 DK / $7,200 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Cardinals DEF $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (fourth in points per game allowed, CHI 32nd in sacks allowed)

CHI DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: none

CHI DFS fades: Dalton $5,300 DK / $6,600 FD (ARI third in passing DVOA, second in YPA allowed), Darnell Mooney $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Cole Kmet $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD and Jimmy Graham $2,900 DK / $4,700 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CHI is 30th in third-down conversions at 33.6 percent; ARI is third in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, 16-17 mph wind, 20-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner bangs out 80 yards and two touchdowns. McCoy throws for 220 yards and a TD to A.J. Green. Montgomery runs for 90 yards and a score. Dalton throws for 240 yards but gets picked off twice. Cardinals 24-10

L.A. Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Chargers' no-show in Denver last week was a disappointment, to be sure, but it's par for the course with this team. They're 2-3 since their bye, and while all three losses have come against playoff-caliber foes, their inability to come up big when they need to remains the defining trait of the franchise, a demon Brandon Staley hasn't been able to exorcise. It's beginning to get to Justin Herbert too — he's already thrown as many INTs this season as he did in his entire rookie campaign, with a 10:6 TD:INT over that five-game lurch. They're still very much in the hunt for a postseason spot — heck, they're only one game back of Kansas City in the AFC West, but who isn't? — but the Bolts will need to find some consistency at some point if they're ever going to get over the hump. You could say the same about the Bengals, but they seem a lot closer to putting it all together after reeling off back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Steelers, with the latter victory giving them their first season sweep of Pittsburgh since 2009. Joe Mixon has led the way, finding the end zone twice in four consecutive games while topping 100 scrimmage yards in three straight, a nice roll to be on heading into a meeting with arguably the worst run defense in the league. That hasn't left Joe Burrow with much to do, but there are worse situations to be in than having your running game and defense playing well enough that the first overall pick from two years ago is your ace in the hole if things start to go sideways.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back)

CIN injuries: C Trey Hopkins (questionable, knee), RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR, knee), RT Riley Reiff (questionable, ankle), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring)

LAC DFS targets: Jared Cook $3,100 DK / $5,100 FD (CIN 26th in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS targets: Mixon $8,100 DK / $9,400 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed)

LAC DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: Tyler Boyd $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (LAC fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CIN is fourth in red-zone conversions at 70.0 percent; LAC are 24th in red-zone defense at 65.1 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 8-10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Austin Ekeler racks up 110 combined yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 280 yards and a score to Mike Williams. Mixon responds with 130 scrimmage yards and another two touchdowns. Burrow also steps up, throwing for 300 yards and TDs to Ja'Marr Chase and C.J. Uzomah. Bengals 31-23

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+11), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

I'm still not sure whether it's actually a product of his talent at this stage of his career, but since Rob Gronkowski returned for the Bucs two weeks ago they've scored 68 points against a couple credible defenses in the Giants and Colts. Gronk himself erupted for 123 receiving yards last week, but Tom Brady only has a 3:2 TD:INT in those games with a 6.7 YPA, marking three consecutive relatively quiet performances for future Hall of Famer. Is Brady just saving his bullets for the postseason, or is something else going on? This should be a good matchup in which to answer that question, because pretty much any decent QB who has wanted to light it up against the Falcons this year has done so. This rivalry tends to produce shootouts in classic NFC South fashion, but Matt Ryan might not have the weapons to keep up. Cordarrelle Patterson has been a revelation and Kyle Pitts has been as good as advertised, but the absence of Calvin Ridley (and Julio Jones, for that matter) as a downfield threat has been felt keenly. As a result, Ryan's failed to reach 200 passing yards or a 7.0 YPA in four of the last five games after reeling off five straight games with multiple TDs. Unless someone like Olamide Zaccheaus suddenly puts it all together, it's hard to see the Falcons' attack turning things around.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Antonio Brown (out, suspension/ankle), LG Ali Marpat (questionable, abdomen), LB Devin White (questionable, quadriceps), S Jordan Whitehead (out, calf)

ATL injuries: WR Ridley (out, personal)

TB DFS targets: Brady $7,200 DK / $8,100 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 29th in TD% allowed), Chris Godwin $6,600 DK / $7,600 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Johnson $3,300 DK / $5,300 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

ATL DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: Patterson $7,000 DK / $7,400 FD (TB first in rushing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPC allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed), Tajae Sharpe $3,700 DK / $5,000 FD (TB third in DVOA vs. WR2), Falcons DEF $2,400 DK / $3,200 FD (32nd in sacks, 31st in points per game allowed, TB t-1st in sacks allowed, first in points per game)

Key stat: TB is third in third-down conversions at 46.7 percent; ATL is 30th in third-down defense at 47.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 ATL, average score 31-29 TB, average margin of victory 10 points. TB has won four of the last five meetings, and scored more than 30 points in five of the last six

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette churns out 80 yards and a score. Brady throws for 320 yards and two TDs, hitting Godwin (who tops 100 yards) and Mike Evans. Patterson picks up 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Ryan throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Zaccheaus and Pitts, but he also throws a pick-six to Antoine Winfield. Buccaneers 34-21

Jacksonville (+13.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Jags have lost three consecutive games, but the offense has looked lost a lot longer than that, averaging 11.4 points a game while going 1-4 since the team's bye. Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has basically shut down the passing game, which is exactly what you do when you use the first overall pick on a quarterback, right? As a result, Trevor Lawrence has a 2:2 TD:INT over those five games, but the cautious approach hasn't translated into better efficiency, as he has a 56.0 percent completion rate and a woeful 5.0 YPA. To be fair, the team keeps losing targets, with Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold joining DJ Chark and Travis Etienne on IR for the rest of the season, but all things considered Lawrence could have the Cowboys or Bucs' receiving corps at his disposal and it probably wouldn't make a big difference. The best thing Jacksonville has going for it in this one is that the Rams are also in a tailspin. They've also lost three straight, and while a banged-up Matthew Stafford hasn't been as sharp as he was earlier in the year, the biggest issue is a star-studded defense that can't get stops when it needs them. The numbers simply don't add up — this is a team that is seventh in yards per play allowed but 21st in points per game allowed, which bodes well if coordinator Raheem Morris can get everything to gel before the playoffs, but a tough closing schedule (after this week, anyway) that includes the Cards, Vikings and 49ers again won't give them much breathing room if he can't.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: RB James Robinson (questionable, heel), TE Dan Arnold (IR, knee), CB Shaquill Griffin (out, concussion)

LAR injuries: RB Darrell Henderson (questionable, thigh), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, hip), RT Rob Havenstein (questionable, foot)

JAC DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Stafford $7,300 DK / $7,800 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), Cooper Kupp $9,000 DK / $9,000 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Beckham $5,500 DK / $6,000 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

JAC DFS fades: Jaguars DEF $2,300 DK / $3,000 FD (32nd in takeaways, LAR t-3rd in sacks allowed)

LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 21st in red-zone conversions at 56.0 percent; LAR are 11th in red-zone defense at 55.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Robinson ekes out 50 yards. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 40, but throws a pick-six to Jalen Ramsey. Sony Michel starts and grinds out 70 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and Beckham. Rams 28-3

Washington (+2.5) at Las Vegas, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Washington has won three consecutive games since its bye to get back in the playoff picture. In fact, if the season ended now the Football Team somehow holds the final wild card in the NFC. The defense has rallied despite the loss of Chase Young, even holding Tom Brady and the Bucs to less than 20 points, which is a far cry from the squad that let four straight opponents pile up 30 or more points earlier in the season. Antonio Gibson has also been remarkably productive lately given the state of the offensive line, which could be down to third-stringers at center and left guard for this one, while Taylor Heinicke at least has kept his mistakes to a minimum, posting a 5:1 TD:INT over the winning streak. The Raiders are 6-5 but seemed headed in the opposite direction before pulling out an OT win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The victory was a costly one, however, as Darren Waller could be out for a while, leaving Derek Carr with Hunter Renfrow and a bunch of question marks to target. Carr's had no problem moving the ball — Vegas is a shocking fourth in yards per play this season — but getting it into the end zone has been another story, and losing Waller for any length of time won't help matters. This team has been written off repeatedly this year, though, and they're still right there in the AFC West race, so it wouldn't be a shock if they came up big here. It also wouldn't be a shock if they got caught looking ahead to a Week 14 clash with Kansas City.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: RB J.D. McKissic (out, concussion), WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, groin), TE Ricky Seals-Jones (questionable, hip) LG Ereck Flowers (questionable, foot), LG Wes Schweitzer (out, ankle), C Tyler Larsen (questionable, knee), RT Samuel Cosmi (IR, hip), DE Montez Sweat (IR, jaw), S Landon Collins (out, foot)

LV injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, ankle), WR DeSean Jackson (questionable, calf), TE Waller (doubtful, knee), LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR, toe)

WAS DFS targets: Logan Thomas $4,000 DK / $5,600 FD (LV 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS targets: Carr $6,000 DK / $7,500 FD (WAS 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in TD% allowed), Jackson $4,200 DK / $5,200 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

WAS DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is 29th in third-down conversions at 34.4 percent; WAS is 32nd in third-down defense at 51.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Gibson pieces together 70 yards and a touchdown. Heinicke throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin. Jacobs manages 60 yards and a TD, but Kenyan Drake leads the LV backfield with 80 combined yards and a score of his own. Carr throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Jackson for two bombs (revenge game!) and Renfrow for the third. Raiders 38-27

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+4.5), o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Ravens have won three of their last four, and remain in first place in the AFC North. So why does it seem like they're in big trouble? Maybe it's the fact that Lamar Jackson's numbers took a tumble even before he missed a game with a mystery illness, and he didn't look like himself after returning. Maybe it's that the team has approximately 386 cornerbacks on the injury report, and statistically has had one of the worst secondaries in the league all year. Baltimore keeps finding ways to win, but scoring 17 points or less in four of its last five probably isn't going to get it very far in the playoffs. "Finding ways to win" was Pittsburgh's middle name earlier in the season, but that luck seems to have evaporated. The Steelers are 0-2-1 in their last three and the defense has completely bottomed out, coughing up 41 points in consecutive weeks to the Chargers and, ugh, the Bengals. Heck, they gave up 27 points and more than 400 yards to the Bears not too long ago, which might be a worse performance. Najee Harris has also been held in check the last couple games, as teams take him out of the equation and dare Ben Roethlisberger to beat them. That could be a dangerous approach for the Ravens to take, all things considered, but then again, how much worse can it get for them on the back end?

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RT Patrick Mekari (questionable, ankle),. LB Patrick Queen (questionable, ribs), CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable, illness), CB Anthony Averett (questionable, shoulder), CB Marcus Peters (IR, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, neck)

PIT injuries: LG Kevin Dotson (IR, ankle), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), CB Joe Haden (out, foot)

BAL DFS targets: Devonta Freeman $5,500 DK / $6,100 FD and Latavius Murray $5,100 DK / $5,900 FD (PIT 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)

PIT DFS targets: Roethlisberger $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (BAL 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed)

BAL DFS fades: none

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is 25th in third-down conversions at 36.6 percent; PIT is seventh in third-down defense at 37.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 PIT, average score 23-23, average margin of victory eight points. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 9-10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Freeman leads the BAL backfield with 80 combined yards, while Murray adds 50 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Mark Andrews while running for 40 yards. Harris grinds out 70 scrimmage yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth, and he puts together a game-winning drive for a field goal in the final minutes that Jackson can't match. Steelers 24-23

San Francisco at Seattle (+3.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Niners are riding high, winning three straight and four of five while scoring at least 30 points in each of those victories. Kyle Shanahan keeps stitching together a potent offense no matter which pieces are missing, and this week it's Deebo Samuel's turn to be on the sidelines. Jimmy Garoppolo's been slinging it regardless of who's on the other end of his passes, producing an 8.0 YPA in those five games even if his volume hasn't been high enough to make him a consistent fantasy stud. The Seahawks, however, have collapsed, losing six of seven, and the return of Russell Wilson has done nothing to halt the slide. Wilson hasn't been close to 100 percent healthy in three games since getting back under center, though last week's effort against Washington at least offered a glimpse of his usual form as he tried to mount a comeback. DK Metcalf has also been playing through a foot issue, which hasn't helped, nor has a banged-up backfield that offers no threat to take some pressure off Russ. I'm going to keep running the numbers like Wilson could flip the switch at any moment, and Seattle has mostly owned San Francisco in recent years, but based on their current runs this should be a blowout for the visitors.

The Skinny

SF injuries: WR Samuel (out, groin), DE Dee Ford (IR, back), LB Fred Warner (doubtful, hamstring), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, groin)

SEA injuries: RB Alex Collins (questionable, abdomen), RB Rashaad Penny (questionable, hamstring), RB Travis Homer (questionable, calf), LG Damien Lewis (doubtful, elbow)

SF DFS targets: Garoppolo $5,700 DK / $6,600 FD (SEA 27th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing yards per game allowed)

SEA DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: Gerald Everett $3,800 DK / $4,900 FD (SF fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SEA is fifth in red-zone conversions at 68.0 percent; SF is 20th in red-zone defense at 62.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 SEA, average score 28-21 SEA, average margin of victory eight points. SEA has won four of the last five meetings, and five of the last six have been decided by a single score

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elijah Mitchell reels off 110 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and two more scores, hitting Jauan Jennings and George Kittle. DeeJay Dallas leads the SEA backfield with 50 yards. Wilson throws for 300 yards and three TDs of his own, finding Tyler Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and Freddie Swain once. Seahawks 27-21

Denver (+10) at Kansas City, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Every week, my little formula spits out a Broncos win, or at least a close loss, and every week I think the formula is over-rating them. And yet here they are at 6-5, and a win here would actually put them in first place in the AFC West, so they can't be that bad. The issue is an imbalanced squad that, as per usual, has excellent numbers against the pass, but is nothing special anywhere else. Rookie Javonte Williams could get his first real chance to shake that up with Melvin Gordon likely to be sidelined, but Williams' odds of putting up a big game are hampered both by a banged-up Denver offensive line, and a Kansas City defensive line that has looked outstanding since Chris Jones started playing inside a lot more. In fact, the defense has allowed 17 points or less in five of six games prior to last week's bye, helping to cover for an offense that still isn't firing on all cylinders. I keep staring at Patrick Mahomes' game log thinking I've clicked on the wrong player. He's tossed one TD or less in four of his last five, and aside from a massive performance against the Raiders in which Las Vegas defensive coordinator Gus Bradley apparently didn't look at any game film on Mahomes from the last calendar year to prep for it, the QB simply can't figure out how to solve secondaries who refuse to open up deep downfield no matter what looks Andy Reid throws at them. Of course, this rivalry has been completely one-sided for a long time, Mahomes could go off at any moment and giving Reid an extra week to prepare is usually a recipe for success, but if any defense is equipped to keep frustrating the K.C. passing game, it's this one.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Gordon (doubtful, hip), LT Garett Boles (questionable, ankle), LG Dalton Risner (questionable, back), RG Quinn Meinerz (questionable, knee), RT Bobby Massie (questionable, ankle), CB Bryce Callahan (IR, knee)

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (questionable, illness), RT Lucas Niang (out, ribs), CB Rashas Fenton (out, knee)

DEN DFS targets: Broncos DEF $2,500 DK / $4,100 FD (third in points per game allowed, KC 31st in giveaways)

KC DFS targets: Tyreek Hill $8,400 DK / $8,500 FD (DEN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DEN DFS fades: Tim Patrick $4,600 DK / $5,700 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3)

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is 16th in red-zone conversions at 59.5 percent; DEN is 10th in red-zone defense at 54.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 10-0 KC, average score 29-17 KC, average margin of victory 13 points. KC has won 11 straight meetings

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, 14-16 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams busts out for 120 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Teddy Bridgewater throws for 250 yards and a second score to Jerry Jeudy. Edwards-Helaire leads the KC backfield with 70 scrimmage yards, while Darrel Williams vultures a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) and Byron Pringle, but he also gets picked off twice. Broncos 24-21

Dallas at New Orleans (+4.5), o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Things aren't exactly dire yet for the Cowboys — they're still the only team in the NFC East above .500 — but after losing three of their last four, they've given both Washington and the Eagles a sniff of hope. There's been no one aspect of Dallas' play that needs to be fixed beyond simple consistency, as over those four games the offense has scored 30-plus twice and been held to 20 or less twice, while the defense has done the same and in even more baffling fashion (having one of their good games against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, and one of the bad ones against Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos). All three losses were against the AFC West, though, so maybe it was just an inter-conference thing. The Cowboys' roster will also be closer to full strength. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are both back, though the latter could be on a snap count, while Ezekiel Elliott got lifted off the injury report earlier than usual as he continues to play through knee stiffness. The Saints' situation, on the other hand, is definitely dire as they're 5-6 and just trying to stay in the wild-card picture. Since Jameis Winston was lost for the season, they've lost four consecutive games, and Sean Payton may have been stuck at QB while Taysom Hill dealt with a lingering foot issue. Hill's apparently finally healthy enough to supplant Trevor Siemian, and they might need his mobility under center with both starting tackles limping and DeMarcus Lawrence potentially set to make his season debut for the Cowboys, not to mention rookie phenom Micah Parsons prowling around. Alvin Kamara could also miss his fourth consecutive game, limiting Hill's options when he's doing something other than keeping the ball himself.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: WR Cedrick Wilson (questionable, ankle), RT Terence Steele (doubtful, COVID-19), DE Lawrence (IR-R, foot), DE Randy Gregory (IR, calf), S Donovan Wilson (IR, shoulder)

NO injuries: RB Kamara (questionable, knee), TE Adam Trautman (IR, knee), LT Terron Armstead (questionable, knee), RT Ryan Ramczyk (questionable, knee), DE Marcus Davenport (questionable, shoulder), CB Paulson Adebo (questionable, concussion)

DAL DFS targets: Michael Gallup $6,800 DK / $10,500 FD (NO 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS targets: Marquez Callaway $6,400 DK / $8,500 FD (DAL 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DAL DFS fades: Elliott $10,800 DK / $14,000 FD and Tony Pollard $7,800 DK / $12,000 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)

NO DFS fades: Tre'Quan Smith $5,600 DK / $9,000 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NO is t-21st in third-down conversions at 38.1 percent; DAL is second in third-down defense at 31.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Pollard leads the DAL backfield with 70 scrimmage yards, while Elliott gains 50. Dak Prescott fires up 310 yards and three TDs, hitting Lamb (who tops 100 yards) twice and Gallup once while also running in a score of his own. Mark Ingram bangs out 90 yards and a touchdown. Hill throws for 220 yards and runs for 40 more, finding Callaway for a TD, but he also gets sacked five times. Cowboys 28-23

Last week's record: 10-5, 10-5 ATS, 6-9 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 112-67-1, 97-82-1 ATS, 81-97-2 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1226-739-7, 956-949-67 ATS, 691-741-28 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)