Exploiting the Matchups: Week 1 Start/Sit

If you're a fan of silver linings, perhaps you've already noticed that there have been fewer spring/summer injuries in the NFL this year. That's what happens when OTAs and preseason games are cancelled; simply put, players have been exposed to fewer situations with heightened injury risk.

A pessimist might call it the calm before the storm, arguing that the reduction in preparation will lead to increased frequency of injuries during the season. Combining this potential impact with the obvious threat posed by the ongoing pandemic, it won't come as any surprise if the 2020 campaign sets a record for cumulative missed games across the league.

But, for the time being, we actually head into Week 1 with the majority of NFL depth charts looking cleaner than they normally would at this time of year. There are still a few injury situations with relevance for start/sit decisions, but most of our analysis will focus on other aspects of the matchups.

We are adding one small change to Exploiting the Matchups this year, displaying the percentage of leagues in which a player is listed as a starter (as of Wednesday evening) on both Yahoo and ESPN. This should give you a better idea of whether the start/sit recommendation is geared toward a "standard" 10/12-team league, or if it's mostly intended for shallower or deeper formats. 

A matchup upgrade for a player who is five percent started probably won't be enough to warrant a lineup spot in your 10-team league, but it could be useful for a 14-teamer or a setup with a bunch of FLEX spots. Likewise, if you're playing in a super-deep format, you probably won't ever have the luxury of benching a guy who is 60 percent started on Yahoo.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade for Week 1, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• Jeff Erickson's value meter
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Unless otherwise stated, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Thursday Night Special

• WR Sammy Watkins vs. HOU — UPGRADE ⬆️

8% started on Yahoo, 2% on ESPN

The mercurial receiver starts his seventh pro season with a trip to Bill O'Brien's remedial camp for first-round cornerback busts. Maybe the Texans are onto something with their unusual approach to acquiring DBs, but for the most part it just seems like they prioritized other positions and took what they could easily get on the perimeter. One of those guys, Gareon Conley, is on injured reserve to start the season, leaving Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves as the presumed starters and Lonnie Johnson as the likely nickelback. PFF graded Johnson dead last out of 115 qualified CBs last year, and neither Roby (59th) nor Hargreaves (108th) was impressive either. 

Watkins may not be reliable enough to warrant a lineup spot in 10- or 12-team leagues, but the blow-up potential is worth a shot in deeper formats, given that he's facing lousy corners and likely running 30-plus routes for a team with a 31.5 implied total. A similar argument  could be applied to Mecole Hardman in deeper leagues, though it's possible he's still stuck in a timeshare with Demarcus Robinson. 

This season opener certainly doesn't lack for fantasy intrigue, both in terms of point-scoring potential and unanswered questions regarding roles. The KC backfield will get most of the attention, but it'll also be interesting to see the Hardman/Robinson split and how the Texans divide snaps between their four starting-caliber WRs (Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills). If you're into the fringier stuff, we'll also be keeping a close eye on how the Texans use RB Duke Johnson and TE Jordan Akins, with a full breakdown sure to be included in Hidden Stat Line next week.

Upgrade

Quarterback

• Cam Newton vs. MIA

28% Yahoo, 26% ESPN

The Dolphins should be improved from last season, while the Patriots likely will be worse. Still, we're still talking about a team that allowed 39 passing touchdowns and 8.0 YPA last year, and which is now counting on external upgrades to provide a facelift after a truncated offseason program. Newton, of course, faces the same challenge of reduced preparation time while playing a position with a tougher learning curve, but he's largely surrounded by teammates who have spent at least one or two years in Josh McDaniels' system. Even if you don't believe in the efficiency, Newton could deliver fantasy points by virtue of being a talented runner in an uptempo offense. New England led the NFL in neutral-situation pace in both 2018 and 2019, after finishing sixth in 2016 and second in 2017.

• Ben Roethlisberger at NYG

29% Yahoo, 22% ESPN

The Giants were among the teams hardest hit by injuries this summer, losing a pair of projected starters — ILB David Mayo and S Xavier McKinney — in late August. Their defense already appeared among the worst in the league, boasting a solid defensive line but not much else. Last year, the Giants were torched for 8.0 YPA (30th) and a 66.3 percent completion rate (28th), allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs (21.3 per game). They scored one upgrade in the secondary with the signing of  CB James Bradberry, only to see the other half of the plan fall apart when legal issues led to 2019 first-round pick Deandre Baker being released. Even in his first game back from elbow surgery, Roethlisberger should have the advantage Monday night, picking on a weak secondary with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, Eric Ebron and James Conner at his disposal.

• Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen vs. NYJ; Derek Carr at CAR; Tyrod Taylor at CIN

Running Back

• Mark Ingram vs. CLE

85% Yahoo, 48% ESPN

Ingram may not be the auto-start he was last season, but there's a lot to like about his Week 1 matchup, playing as a 7.5-point favorite against a Browns team that allowed 5.0 YPC (30th) and the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs last year. While there's reason to think Cleveland will be improved overall, they still appear vulnerable to the run as they count on B.J. Goodson to replace leading 2019 tackler Joe Schobert at middle linebacker, while weakside starter Mack Wilson (knee) is expected to miss the opener. PFF ranked the Cleveland linebackers No. 31 in their preseason unit grades, and that might actually be one spot too high.

• Tarik Cohen at DET

29% Yahoo, 18% ESPN

Even if David Montgomery (groin) ends up playing, which Cohen himself seems to expect, the Week 1 matchup should work out nicely for Chicago's scatback. The Lions limited Cohen to an 8-49-1 receiving line across two matchups last season, but they otherwise struggled to defend running backs in the passing game, allowing the third-most receiving yards (864), eight TDs and a league-worst 7.7 YPT. That's partially the fault of 2017 first-round bust Jarrad Davis, who returns to his starting job at middle linebacker despite allowing 417 yards on 35 targets into his coverage — 1.33 per cover snap, tied for ninth-worst among LBs (200-snap min.) — in 11 games last year (per PFF). Plus, the Bears still aren't 100 percent sure Anthony Miller will become a reliable second option for their passing game, nor is it clear Montgomery will handle his usual workload if he's active. This is a good spot for Cohen to see a handful of carries and six or seven targets.

• Marlon Mack at JAX

16% Yahoo, 14% ESPN

This could be as good as it gets all year for Mack, who already had Nyheim Hines replacing him on passing downs and now has Jonathan Taylor looming over his shoulder. Taylor could even get the larger share of carries as soon as Week 1, but there's upside for both ballcarriers with the Colts lined up as eight-point favorites against a defense that allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game (28th) and 5.1 YPC (31st) last year. The Jaguars got rid of a bunch of the players who were involved in that travesty, but apart from Joe Schobert replacing Donald Payne at middle linebacker, the lineup changes look like downgrades or horizontal moves.  

• Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Taylor at JAX; Devin Singletary and Zack Moss vs. NYJ

Wide Receiver

• Stefon Diggs vs. NYJ

69% Yahoo, 54% ESPN

The Jets' starting corners are Pierre Desir and Blessuan Austin, the former a 2014 fourth-round pick who had one good season (2018) for the Colts, and the latter a 2019 sixth-round selection who played 389 snaps last year. Diggs, on the other hand, is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, and while the marriage with Josh Allen provides reasonable cause for concern, the Bills shouldn't have trouble putting up points against a Jets defense that lost its best player (Jamal Adams) in a trade and its second-best player (C.J. Mosley) to an opt-out.

• Julian Edelman vs. MIA

37% Yahoo, 35% ESPN

Despite finishing last season at WR7 for PPR and WR13 for standard scoring, Edelman typically was drafted around the WR35 range this summer. His age and injury history offer valid cause for concern from a season-long standpoint, but he's locked in as the Patriots' top receiving threat for at least Week 1, and the Cam Newton signing should keep Edelman away from the disaster scenario where the Patriots' QB play completely implodes. It kind of feels like his ADP never recovered from that initial fear after Tom Brady's departure, though we'll also note that the 34-year-old's sinking stock was partially a product of the WR position getting a big talent boost from the past two drafts.

• DeSean Jackson at WAS

12% Yahoo, 9% ESPN

Alshon Jeffery (foot) has all but been ruled out, and Jalen Reagor (shoulder) could be limited even if he ends up playing. Jackson, on the other hand, managed to stay healthy throughout training camp, setting him up for the No. 1 receiver role to start the year. This Washington defense should be better than the one he roasted for 8-154-2 in the opener last season, but it still appears suspect at cornerback, where Kendall Fuller, Ronald Darby and Jimmy Moreland are expected to get most of the snaps. Darby and Moreland were bottom 40 in PFF's CB grades last year, while Fuller (35th) fared much better but played the vast majority of his snaps as a slot corner or safety. Consider it a nice bonus that Washington's projected starter at free safety, Troy Apke, played a grand total of 210 defensive snaps in his first two NFL seasons. Jackson should get behind the WFT defense for a long gain at some point Sunday afternoon.

• Honorable Mentions: Will Fuller at KC; T.Y. Hilton at JAX; James Washington and Diontae Johnson at NYG; Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards at CAR; Robby Anderson vs. LVR

Tight End

• Hunter Henry at CIN

73% Yahoo, 58% ESPN

The transition from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor likely entails more rush attempts and fewer passes, not to mention valid concerns about the overall efficiency of the Chargers offense. However, the team still doesn't have much pass-catching depth beyond its stars, and the narrow tree could be even thinner than usual this week with Mike Williams (shoulder) seemingly headed for a game-time decision. With Henry, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler likely accounting for a huge share of the passing attack, the tight end can conceivably draw seven or eight targets even if Taylor throws only 30 passes. The Cincinnati defense shouldn't be quite as dreadful as last year's version, but it still looks shaky beyond the front four, sitting 26th in PFF's preseason rankings and 24th in RotoWire's fantasy D/ST rankings.

• Blake Jarwin at LAR

11% Yahoo, 4% ESPN

The Rams still have Aaron Donald up front and Jalen Ramsey leading a solid secondary, but things could get messy in the middle of the field where Micah Kiser and Troy Reeder — with 298 career defensive snaps between them — are expected to serve as the starting linebackers. Heck, the Rams allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, and that was with underrated star Cory Littleton (now a Raider) handling an every-down role in the middle. Jarwin also figures to run some of his routes against Taylor Rapp, who allowed the second-most yards into his coverage (544) of any safety last year (per PFF). The Dallas wideouts rightfully will get most of the attention for fantasy purposes, but it's Jarwin who has the easiest matchup to kick off a potential breakout season.

• Honorable Mentions: Tyler Higbee vs. DAL; Dallas Goedert at WAS

Kicker

• Rodrigo Blankenship at JAX

3% Yahoo, 21% ESPN

Highlighted in RotoWire's spring UDFA guide, Blankenship made us look smart when he defeated Chase McLaughlin in a camp battle. The rookie converted each of his 200 PATs and 82.5 percent of his field-goal attempts at Georgia, and he'll now start his NFL career in a matchup where the Colts have the fifth-best implied total (26.5) of the week.

• Honorable Mentions: Chris Boswell at NYG; Jason Myers at ATL; Daniel Carlson at CAR

Downgrades

Quarterback

• Tom Brady at NO

59% Yahoo, 68% ESPN

A home matchup with Carolina is right around the corner, so it shouldn't be too long before Brady investors get what they paid for. First though, he'll have to head on the road to New Orleans, where the biggest offseason loss on defense (Vonn Bell) was replaced by old friend Malcolm Jenkins. The Saints still have Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport coming off the edge, and they still have Marshon Lattimore squaring up with No. 1 receivers. Speaking of which, Mike Evans (hamstring) missed Wednesday's practice and could be headed for a game-time decision.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Kyler Murray at SF; Daniel Jones vs. PIT; Baker Mayfield at BAL; Sam Darnold at BUF; Ryan Fitzpatrick at NE

Running Back

• Le'Veon Bell at BUF

73% Yahoo, 76% ESPN

The state of the Jets' depth chart hints at considerable Week 1 volume for their lead back, but the final product could look a lot like what we saw last season when Bell was limited to 3.2 YPC, 5.9 YPT and four TDs on 311 touches. He did that with 82 percent snap share, and while camp reports should always be taken with a grain of salt, we did see two different beat writers reference Frank Gore taking approximately 40 percent of the first-team work in training camp. Even if Gore only steals five or six carries, Bell will have a lot working against him in the opener, with the Jets carrying the lowest implied total (16.5) of the week. That feels a bit harsh from where I'm sitting, but we can at least all agree that the Bills defense inspires far more confidence than the Jets offense.

• Kareem Hunt at BAL

Yahoo 33%, ESPN 37%

It might be tempting to consider the scenario where Cleveland is forced into catch-up mode and Hunt ends up playing more snaps than Nick Chubb. That's certainly a possibility with the Browns being 7.5-point underdogs, but we should also consider that the extra snaps won't be worth too much for Hunt's fantasy managers if the team isn't scoring points or moving the ball. 

Really, it's a difficult matchup for both running backs, despite Chubb's Week 4 heroics in Baltimore last year. Derrick Henry and Raheem Mostert were the only other backs to run wild against the Ravens in 2019, and only two teams allowed fewer receiving yards (454) to the position. It's also quite possible Baltimore is tougher against the run this year, bringing in first-round pick ILB Patrick Queen and veteran defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe. Chubb is impossible to bench with his combination of talent and guaranteed carries, but Hunt is more of a fringe/flex option who can be replaced in most leagues.

• Antonio Gibson vs. PHI

Yahoo 10%, ESPN 19%

The first obstacle here is a backfield committee, with Ron Rivera even using that dreaded c-word during his Wednesday media session. The second problem is the Philadelphia defensive line, which limited RBs to 69.6 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.7 YPC (4th) last season, despite losing DT Malik Jackson to a season-ending injury Week 1. Jackson, the team's big offseason prize last year, is back in the lineup for 2020, and former Steelers DT Javon Hargrave was brought in on a three-year, $39 million contract to join Jackson and Fletcher Cox up the middle. The Washington offensive line will have its hands full Sunday, and we still don't know how snaps, carries and targets will be divided between Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber (and maybe Bryce Love too at some point). Gibson is perfect as a bench stash, but not so much as a Week 1 lineup choice.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Ronald Jones at NO; Jordan Howard at NE; Latavius Murray vs. TB

Wide Receiver

• DeVante Parker at NE

43% Yahoo, 33% ESPN

Parker's volume projection makes him an auto-start in a lot of leagues, but this is the spot where you'll consider benching him, if ever. You might remember he went for seven and 137 his last time on a football field while facing this same Patriots squad; just keep in mind that he was held catchless on seven targets in the first meeting between the two teams. It doesn't help that Parker is nursing a hamstring injury, while Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is healthy for the opener. Advantage: Gilmore. 

• Darius Slayton vs. PIT

12% Yahoo, 3% ESPN

Assuming Daniel Jones is at least somewhat improved from last season, the Giants offense should have enough talent to avoid embarrassment against a Pittsburgh defense that returns nine starters (plus nickelback Mike Hilton) from last year's formidable unit. Unfortunately for Slayton, the Giants are most likely to find success with short passes and throws over the middle, as opposed to slower-developing deep routes on the perimeter. In addition to the rock-solid CB duo of Joe Haden and Steven Nelson, the Steelers bring back 44.5 of their 54 sacks from last season, led by OLBs T.J. Watt (14.5) and Bud Dupree (11.5). Giants have rookie first-round pick Andrew Thomas starting at left tackle, while a 28-year-old with 26 NFL starts (Cameron Fleming) is expected to man the RT spot. Thomas seems like an awesome prospect and all, but he probably isn't successfully-block-a-Watt-on-Day-1 good, right?

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: A.J. Green vs. LAC; Christian Kirk at SF; Breshad Perriman at BUF; Preston Williams at NE

Tight End

• Rob Gronkowski at NO

64% Yahoo, 70% ESPN

As much as we'd all love to see an old-fashioned Gronking, it's probably not the best choice to bet on it in a fantasy lineup. The biggest problem is a potential timeshare with O.J. Howard, who may have escaped from Bruce Arians' doghouse with a strong showing at training camp. Then we have the matter of a tough Week 1 matchup, with the Bucs listed as 3.5-point underdogs against a team that has Malcolm Jenkins and Marcus Williams as its starting safeties. The Saints were tied for the ninth-fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends last year, and that was with run thumper Vonn Bell — now a Bengal — playing alongside Williams at safety. Jenkins allowed 0.64 yards per cover snap with a 67.5 PFF coverage grade last year, while Bell gave up 0.83 with a 49.4 coverage grade. 

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Austin Hooper at BAL; Mike Gesicki at NE; Chris Herndon at BUF

Kicker

• Zane Gonzalez at SF

68% Yahoo, 67% ESPN

You'll probably stick with Gonzalez if you already drafted him, especially given that the next two weeks bring home games against Washington and Detroit, followed by road dates with the Panthers (Week 4) and Jets (Week 5). But if you can afford to roster two kickers for whatever reason, it's a good idea to start someone other than Gonzalez. The Cardinals are tied for the ninth-worst implied total (20.5) of Week 1, while kickers like Blankenship (26.5), Boswell (26.25), Myers (25.5) and Carlson (25.25) are freely available in many leagues.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Austin Seibert at BAL; Josh Lambo vs. IND

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.