2020 Football Draft Kit: Breakout Players

The 2019 campaign was among the most fruitful in recent memory for breakouts, ranging from a 22-year-old MVP to a 27-year-old journeyman tight end to the usual assortment of second-year wideout explosions. Scooping up Darren Waller or DJ Chark in the 15th round was good for bragging rights, but it probably wasn't as profitable as a second-round pick spent on Dalvin Cook or a fourth-rounder on Chris Godwin, and it definitely wasn't as impactful as landing Lamar Jackson in Round 8. Or maybe you drafted all those guys … and still ended up losing to whoever had Christian McCaffrey.

There's only so much we can do, and each season brings a new wave of breakout candidates ashore. For every Jackson there's a Baker Mayfield, and for every Cook a Kerryon Johnson. Later in drafts, the ratio is more like five Chris Herndons for every Darren Waller, or 10 DaeSean Hamiltons for every Chark.

If those 15th-round picks actually had good odds to break out, they wouldn't be available in the 15th round. That's not to say we shouldn't try; quite the opposite given how upside is all that really matters for those final few bench spots. The broader idea is not just to identify potential breakout players — there are at least 30 or 40 legitimate candidates — but to find the ones most likely to outperform their ADP or auction cost by a large margin.

The players discussed below have been identified as the best of the best in terms of upside relative to summer ADP, picking from the large pool of veteran players — no rookies allowed! — who haven't yet emerged as weekly fantasy starters throughout a full season. To be specific, we're looking at players who have already displayed some of the underlying skills needed for big-time production, but for one reason or another haven't become stars.

That's not to say 2020 won't bring another zero-to-hero stud like Chark or Waller, but it's best to remember those are the exception rather than the rule. Most breakout players will have previously shown some level of NFL production, even if it was in a small sample. When the argument is strictly based on draft capital or college resume rather than what's happened on an NFL field, we're probably talking about an end-game dart or September waiver add (with all due respect to N'Keal Harry).

NFFC ADP data is noted below for each player.

Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals

Summer ADP: No. 12, RB9

Drake is perhaps a bit different from others on this list, having already enjoyed his breakout over the second half of last season, and now just needing to prove he can do it for a full year. Of course, we said the same thing after he piled up 594 yards in December 2017, and his subsequent 2018 campaign was defined by a frustrating mix of excellent efficiency and volatile volume.

That was in Miami where Drake was typecast as a change-of-pace back, perhaps because he isn't the best blocker or the most powerful runner. But where lesser coaches became fixated on Drake's shortcomings, Arizona's Kliff Kingsbury saw a tantalizing combination of speed, acceleration and agility — a guy with 4.45 wheels who averaged 4.6 YPC behind bad offensive lines in Miami.

Following an October trade, Drake was let loose to the tune of 80 percent snap share in the final eight games, with his stats prorating to 246 carries, 56 receptions, 1,628 yards and 16 touchdowns over 16 weeks. Those numbers would've put him fourth among RBs in standard scoring, or second in PPR.

The biggest factor in the mini-breakout was simply giving Drake more volume, but it also seemed he was a better fit in Kingsbury's option-based offense, taking 80 percent of his carries from either shotgun or pistol formations — and averaging 5.6 yards on those runs. Drake was good for 4.8 YPC from shotgun/ pistol over his three and a half years with Miami, but those carries accounted for only 48 percent of his total volume.

The Cardinals responded in the offseason by trading David Johnson and giving Drake a transition tender for $8.4 million, later bringing in seventh-round pick Eno Benjamin rather than a veteran replacement for Johnson. With Chase Edmonds representing the closest thing to serious competition for snaps, and Kyler Murray's rushing threat helping to open holes, Drake offers the potential for early first-round production at a second-round ADP.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons

Summer ADP: No. 42, WR16 

Ridley has lived up to his pre-draft billing, catching 68.6 percent of targets for 9.1 YPT — with 17 TDs through 29 games — in an Atlanta offense that's thrown for 7.7 YPA during the two-year stretch. In fact, on a per-target basis, Ridley has been similarly productive to Julio Jones, owner of a 64.8 percent catch rate and 9.4 YPT the last two years.

Unfortunately, the impressive efficiency hasn't yet led to stardom, as Ridley's volume didn't pick up until mid-November last season, four weeks before an abdominal injury ended his year. With Mohamed Sanu traded and Austin Hooper sidelined by an MCL sprain, Ridley averaged 6.8 catches for 98.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns on 9.2 targets over his final four games of 2019. He also improved from nine drops as a rookie to three as a sophomore, despite seeing his average target depth rise from 9.6 yards to 13.5 (deeper than Jones' 12.2).

Consider it a preview of what's to come, with Atlanta once again looking vulnerable on defense and now relying on fellow third-year pros Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst as Sanu/Hooper replacements. Jones and Ridley should both venture deep into triple-digit targets, after Matt Ryan cleared 600 pass attempts for a sixth time in the last eight seasons last year. And it isn't just a matter of volume, as seven of those eight seasons featured more than 4,500 cumulative receiving yards from Falcons pass catchers.

Apart from maybe the division-rival Bucs, no team offers a more obvious path to supporting multiple fantasy WR1s. Even if the Falcons' tertiary weapons prove inadequate, Jones' presence means Ridley won't see as much defensive attention as the young wideouts who operate as clear-cut No. 1s in passing attacks led by unproven quarterbacks, e.g., Terry McLaurin, DJ Chark and Courtland Sutton.

The reality of Ridley's situation is that the good performance we've already seen should lead to great fantasy production with the benefit of more volume, while a true, no-holds-barred breakout could land him inside the top 5 at his position, a.k.a. Julio Jones territory.

Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals

Summer ADP: No. 61, QB4 

It isn't hard to draw up a comparison between Murray and Baker Mayfield, both Heisman winners at Oklahoma and No. 1 overall draft picks. Another commonality is Year 2 breakout hype, which didn't work out so great for Mr. Mayfield.

Fortunately, Murray isn't Mayfield, and Kliff Kingsbury isn't Freddie Kitchens. And while the Cardinals' blocking might mirror the O-line struggles we saw in Cleveland last year, Murray probably won't be throwing to wide receivers who spend the entire season fighting through injuries that ultimately require surgery (re: Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry).

More important than the health of his teammates or even the competence of his coaches, Murray has wheels and isn't afraid to use them. That doesn't automatically make him a fantasy superstar, but it does create a high floor akin to last year's QB8 finish, which required only 20 TD passes.

Now imagine what Murray can do with DeAndre Hopkins replacing the 937 snaps that went to Damiere Byrd, Pharoh Cooper and Trent Sherfield last year. The team upgraded one receiver spot from replacement level to potential Hall of Famer, and one of the other spots appears ripe for internal upgrade with 23-year-old Christian Kirk now healthy after revealing that his ankle never felt right after he missed three games last October.

The improved supporting cast should help Murray's efficiency, which in turn could boost his volume above last year's 542 pass attempts (ninth) and 93 carries (third among QBs). The 2019 Cardinals were fourth in overall pace (25.7 seconds per play) and neutral-situation pace (28.4), but third-down struggles on both sides of the ball left them 22nd in offensive play volume (62.5 per game) and second in defensive volume (67.5). That type of discrepancy rarely carries over to the next year, especially if the overall quality of a team improves. (We can say the same for a No. 29 ranking in red-zone TD rate, 45.3 percent.)

There's also room for Kingsbury to improve, with the addition of Hopkins and a healthy Kirk potentially encouraging more deep balls and fewer chip-shot field goals. Murray was third in both completion percentage (42.6) and YPA (15.5) on throws beyond 20 yards downfield, but those passes accounted for only 11.3 percent of his volume (14th most). Meanwhile, the Cardinals kicked nine field goals from the 5-yard line or closer, robbing Murray of TD chances. Kingsbury did become more aggressive on fourth downs, even mentioning that his initial hesitance was about limiting the pressure on Murray.

The pressure of high expectations will be unavoidable in Year 2, but there's also a lot more for Murray to work with, not to mention the benefit of experience and scheme familiarity. If you're looking for the best bet to be 2020's answer to 2018 Patrick Mahomes and 2019 Lamar Jackson, look no further than Arizona.

Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens

Summer ADP: No. 64, WR27 

The stat sheet doesn't always provide a full story, especially when a player has his season impacted by injuries. Not that there's anything wrong with 584 yards and seven touchdowns from a rookie wideout, but it does feel modest for a guy nicknamed "Hollywood" who was the first receiver drafted in a class that included A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin.

It shouldn't be long before Hollywood catches up to his classmates to become the latest leading man from the 2019 draft, benefiting from an offseason focused on football rather than rehab from major surgery. Last year's Lisfranc repair held Brown out of spring practices and the start of training camp, so it was nothing less than shocking when he filleted the Dolphins for 147 yards and a pair of scores — on 14 snaps — in the season opener.

The magnificent debut led to unrealistic expectations, as Brown dealt with restrictions in terms of both snap counts and practice workloads, with his ascension to a full-time role short-lived thanks to a Week 5 ankle sprain. All told, Brown missed two games and was listed as questionable for seven others, ranking 63rd among wide receivers in snaps (571) and 73rd in routes run (322).

He placed much higher in efficiency metrics, with 1.82 yards per route (31st), 8.2 YPT (42nd) and 0.22 fantasy points per snap (T-22nd) — not exactly surprising from a guy who put up 13.0 and 12.9 YPT in his two years at Oklahoma. Maintaining last season's efficiency over a larger workload would be enough for Brown to match his draft cost in many leagues, but we'd be remiss to ignore the possibility he's a much better player — and more efficient — in Year 2.

He took a step in that direction with 126 yards and season-high 85 percent snap share in the playoff loss to Tennessee, and while his foot required a minor procedure shortly thereafter to remove a screw from his initial surgery, Brown was back running routes at full speed in May. A healthy summer should allow him to fine-tune his short and intermediate routes, following a rookie season with four 40-yard gains (T-10th) and seven receptions on 15 targets traveling 20 or more yards downfield (46.7 percent catch rate, 18th).

The 170-pound Bugatti is unlikely to emerge as a Julio/Hopkins-type target hog, but there's plenty of upside at the lower end of triple-digit targets — or even high double digits — as the deep threat and clear No. 1 WR in a high-scoring offense with a record-breaking run game and a seam-stretching tight end.

Will Fuller, WR, Texans

Summer ADP: No. 76, WR34 

It may seem the book on Fuller has been written, shut and printed — there's nothing but grass in front of him, but he too often drops the ball. In fact, the mixed metaphor kind of even works from a literal standpoint, as the man in question is well known for suffering from butterfingers after he leaves defensive backs eating his dust.

The part we often forget is how difficult it is to even be in a position to lead the NFL in dropped deep passes. Pro Football Focus charted Fuller with six drops on throws traveling 20-plus yards downfield last season, but he also tied for the 19th-most catches (nine) and 16th-most yards (347) on those plays, despite missing five full games and the majority of two others.

His production from the nine games he started and finished prorates over 16 games to 82 catches for 1,161 yards and five touchdowns on 121 targets. Granted, Fuller produced 53 percent of his yardage in two appearances, but we can also look to 2018 and see 503 yards and four scores in seven games, prorating to 73-1,150-9 for a full season.

In terms of efficiency, Fuller has a 68.1 percent catch rate and 10.5 YPT on 138 career targets from Deshaun Watson, who has put up 8.7 YPA and 2.3 passing TDs per game with his deep threat in the lineup (22 games) but only 7.3 YPA and 1.3 TDs in 16 games without him. To say Fuller is important would be an understatement, and this becomes all the more clear upon closer inspection.

Among wide receivers with at least 40 targets, Fuller ranked 12th in yards per route in 2018 (2.24) and T-17th in 2019 (2.03), even finishing slightly ahead of DeAndre Hopkins (1.99) last year. Yards per route is one of the "stickier" efficiency stats for wideouts year over year, and it's also one of the best in terms of correlating to following-year fantasy output.

Of course, the big question with Fuller isn't whether he'll efficiently convert his routes and targets into fantasy points; it's more a matter of staying healthy long enough to pile up volume for more than a few weeks at a time. Only an oracle can make any promises to that effect, but the grass has never been greener now that Hopkins and his annual 30 percent target share are out of the picture.

Hayden Hurst, TE, Falcons

Summer ADP: No. 88, TE8 

Hurst isn't just making the voyage from Baltimore to Atlanta; he's traveling from one end of the opportunity spectrum to the other. Previously stuck behind Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle, the 2018 first-round pick now lands atop a depth chart where the other tight ends have 11 combined NFL receptions.

Hurst is best known as the guy the Ravens drafted before Lamar Jackson, but the former college baseball pitcher appears ready to launch a good career of his own after a solid sophomore campaign. Hurst was sixth among qualified tight ends in YPT (8.9) and 10th in yards per route (1.75), with a 30-349-2 receiving line on 41 percent snap share. He had one drop, no penalties and graded out as PFF's No. 12 tight end (73.1), all while displaying the versatility to play in-line (230 snaps), from the slot (114), out wide (54) and even in the backfield (39).

Now he'll take his act to Atlanta, where Austin Hooper drew 88 targets in 2018 and 97 in 13 games last year. Hurst doesn't have the same track record as an established, high-volume pass catcher, but he does have the first-round pedigree as well as a scouting-combine athletic profile that looks similar to Hooper's — 6-4, 250, 4.67 40, 31.5-inch vertical.

In terms of fantasy value, Hurst doesn't need to match his 2019 efficiency for a nice return on his ADP, potentially handling a three-down role in an offense that's a threat to lead the league in pass attempts. Lest you think it's impossible for both Hurst and Ridley to break out, consider the latter averaged 7.2 targets per game last year while Hooper got 7.5 and Julio Jones saw 10.5.

The year prior, four Falcons drew 88 or more targets, even with Jones piling up 170 alone. There's plenty of value in being Option C in a high-volume, plus-efficiency passing game, so Hurst should fill up his plate even if it means picking scraps from his high-flying teammates.

Duke Johnson, RB, Texans

Summer ADP: No. 121, RB48 

Johnson could learn a thing or two from Frank Gore, whose ability to convince coaches to give him the football has outlived his ability to actually play in the NFL at a high level. It isn't clear if Johnson spits in his coaches' cereal or simply has bad luck with them, but career marks of 4.4 yards per carry, 9.2 per catch and 7.1 per target — all solidly above league-wide RB averages — haven't been enough to earn a lead role.

While we can't change the way Johnson's coaches view him, we can imagine what might happen if circumstances demanded a larger workload.

For starters, Johnson has never missed a game in five seasons, appearing on the weekly injury report just once. And while nobody will mistake him for a power back, Johnson's 5-9, 210-pound frame equates to a 31.0 BMI, slightly above league average for RBs. He's even listed at a heavier weight than Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Raheem Mostert and Devin Singletary, among others.

One back who does have a size advantage is new teammate David Johnson, who was picked nine spots after Duke in the 2015 draft. David has been ineffective on the ground since his breakout 2016 campaign, averaging 3.6 yards on 363 carries while breaking only two for 20-plus. In 2018, he was 41st among 49 qualified rushers in YPC (3.6), 45th in average yards after contact (1.6), 44th in broken tackle rate and 44th in PFF elusive rating. David didn't quite have enough carries to qualify last season, and his numbers were similarly bad across the board.

Meanwhile, Duke has ripped off four consecutive seasons with at least 4.2 YPC, a 2.1-yard after-contact average and a top-12 PFF elusive ranking among players with at least 40 carries. The Texans are correct to believe they have a three-down back and a pass-catching specialist, but it appears they have the two confused ... at least for the time being.

Be it through injury or ineffectiveness, there's a decent chance David loses the lead job at some point this season, in which case Duke likely would be left as the top dog in a backfield otherwise populated by young, undrafted players. That's not to say Duke would suddenly get 20 touches, but he could probably manage RB2 production — something Carlos Hyde and Lamar Miller both flirted with in Deshaun Watson-Bill O'Brien offenses despite their minimal receiving contributions and mediocre running.

This Tale of Two Johnsons backfield might not have the requisite prince to make it a fairytale, but a duke starts to look pretty darn good when the other guy is a frog. And no fairytale is complete without cost-benefit analysis relative to ADP.

Blake Jarwin, TE, Cowboys

Summer ADP: No. 150, TE19 

Breakout hype reached a rolling boil in mid-to-late March when Jarwin signed a four-year, $22 million contract a day before Jason Witten joined the Raiders. A month later, the broth was brought down to a simmer after a first-round pick spent on CeeDee Lamb led to concerns about the target distribution in Dallas.

True, the team also needs to feed Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, but let's not forget about Witten and Randall Cobb taking 83 targets apiece out the door. Nor should we ignore the possibility of injuries narrowing the distribution, after 2019 saw the Cowboys' skill-position starters combine for only three missed games (a.k.a. good injury luck).

Jarwin was the forgotten man among that group with 41 targets, but he more than held his own from an efficiency standpoint, finishing seventh among TEs in YPT (8.9), eighth in yards per route (1.82), eighth in drop rate (2.3 percent) and 17th in YAC average (5.1). Despite ranking in the bottom half of the league for each of those stats, Witten saw 95 percent more snaps (845 to 434) and 129 percent more routes (443 to 221) than Jarwin.

Now it's Jarwin who finds himself atop the depth chart with a nice salary, backed up by a trio of players — Blake Bell, Dalton Schultz and Cole Hikutini who had nine receptions between them last year. Jarwin might not have draft pedigree or elite physical traits working in his favor, but he has already proven his competence as a pass catcher and is now set up for a much larger role within a Cowboys offense that led the league in both total yards and yards per play last season.

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jaguars

Summer ADP: No. 174, QB25

Part meme, part football player, Minshew went from sixth-round pick to starting NFL quarterback in a span of five months, somehow winning half his starts for a team with a brutal defense, subpar running game and mediocre pass catchers.

Mere competence put him in excellent company as one of 14 rookie QBs all-time to reach 10 starts, 6.5 YPA and a 60.0 completion percentage. The list contains 10 first-round picks — including Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones — but it also holds Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and CFL convert Jeff Garcia.

While Minshew's 60.6 completion percentage placed 29th among 32 qualified passers, he was middle of the pack by most measures, including 18th in YPA (7.0) and NY/A (6.1), 15th in TD rate (4.1) and 20th in PFF grade (70.3).

Like most guys with gaudy mustaches, Minshew was inconsistent. But that isn't necessarily bad, considering the areas where he stood out offer potential for chunk fantasy points. He completed 20 of 42 passes beyond 20 yards, where a 47.6 completion rate led QBs with 30-plus attempts. Equally surprising, Minshew looked faster than his 4.92 40 time suggested, pacing the NFL in scramble rate (8.9 percent of dropbacks) en route to 344 rushing yards (fifth).

Other positives included superb efficiency on play-action passes (79.3 completion rate, 11.3 YPA) and RPOs (93.8 percent, 12.1 YPA), though he had only 58 attempts of the former and 16 of the latter. While new Jags OC Jay Gruden has never been among the league leaders in play-action rate, his typical range of 18-22 percent would be a big upgrade from Minshew's NFL-low of 12.3 percent.

Gruden has a strong track record coaxing fantasy production from sub-elite quarterbacks, including a fifth-place finish from Andy Dalton (2013) and three consecutive top-8 seasons from Kirk Cousins. While Minshew's supporting cast in Duval isn't exactly thrilling, it's at least better than what Gruden had in Washington, featuring an up-and-coming No. 1 receiver (DJ Chark), a 21-year-old second-round pick (Laviska Shenault) and a pair of passing-down specialists who have history with Gruden (Chris Thompson, Tyler Eifert).

Even if it isn't the best setup for efficiency, the combination of a young, swiss-cheese defense and an offense that focused on its aerial attack in the offseason should lead to considerable passing volume for Minshew, who can then tack on additional points with his legs. Steady volume, decent efficiency and some rushing stats can add up to low-end QB1 production, which would be an absolute smash relative to Minshew's price at drafts and auctions.

MORE CANDIDATES

Devin Singletary, RB, Bills - Averaged 75.4 rushing yards in his final eight games last year. 

Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers - Speed and efficient scheme can make up for timeshare.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers - Great on short routes, tough to tackle. But can he get open deep?

Terry McLaurin, WR, Redskins - Stud from Day 1. Just needs more targets, half-decent QB play.

Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers - Could earn lead role in Brady/Arians offense. 

Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals - Might have broken out last year if not for ankle injury.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers - Smooth route runner with unexpected YAC talent. 

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants - Guys who put up 700 and 8 as rookies generally have good careers. 

Noah Fant, TE, Broncos - Great athlete, inconsistent football player.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins - Someone besides DeVante Parker needs to catch passes in Miami.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns - The post-hype sleeper to rule them all.

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants - Made a lot of good plays and a lot of bad ones. Nice weapons. 

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions - Elite TE prospect coming back from major ankle surgery.

Anthony Miller, WR, Bears - Averaged 86 yards over a five-game stretch late last year.

N'Keal Harry, WR, Patriots - 2020's answer to 2019 DJ Chark?

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts - Injury luck impossibly bad last season. Ran a 4.31 40. 

James Washington, WR, Steelers - Tough competition for targets, but could be Ben's deep threat.

Chris Herndon, TE, Jets - Strong rookie season; missed 15 games last year. 

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots - Could replace injured/ineffective Sony Michel.

This article appears in the 2020 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.