NFL Game Previews: Steelers-Buccaneers

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+1), 53.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Story: Does Le'Veon Bell have leverage yet? James Conner has been productive as his replacement, but an 0-1-1 start doesn't exactly suggest the Steelers are doing just fine without Bell's services. Their issues are more on the other side of the ball, though, and a defense that had trouble slowing down Tyrod Taylor when it mattered, and which just got shredded by Patrick Mahomes, now has to face the red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick. We've seen displays of Fitzmagic before – in 2015, for instance, he fired up a 13:1 TD:INT with 1,525 passing yards in Weeks 12-16 for the Jets as they made a late charge for the playoffs that fell short when Fitzpatrick reverted to type in Week 17 against the Bills – and we all know it'll eventually evaporate back into the rainbow shards or faerie dust from which it came. The only question is whether he'll sucker the Bucs into thinking he's a long-term answer for them at QB over Jameis Winston before then. Another big showing against a team notorious for poor road showings gets him one step closer to breaking the hearts of yet another fan base.

The Skinny:
•PIT injuries: RB Bell (out, contract)
•TB injuries: QB Winston (out, suspension); WR Chris Godwin (questionable, toe)
•PIT DFS chalk: Antonio Brown (33 percent target share in 2018, TB 25th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•TB DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: Ben Roethlisberger (TB 29th in QB rating allowed in 2018)
•TB DFS tournament plays: Fitzpatrick (PIT 26th in QB rating allowed in 2018), DeSean Jackson (PIT 27th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner gains 80 combined yards and scores. Roethlisberger throws for 270 yards and TDs to Brown and Jesse James. Peyton Barber runs for 50 yards. Fitzpatrick Fitzsputters in prime time, throwing for 240 yards and touchdowns to Jackson and Mike Evans but also getting picked off twice. Steelers 30-20

New Orleans (+3) at Atlanta, 53.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Saints narrowly avoided disaster last week, and while Drew Brees looked in midseason form in engineering a fourth-quarter comeback, the defense was once again exposed, somehow allowing Tyrod Taylor to march 41 yards in 13 seconds to set up what should have been a game-tying field goal. That doesn't bode well heading into an NFC South tilt against a Falcons attack that began clicking against the Panthers. Matt Ryan won't have two rushing TDs again – in fact, he hadn't had one since 2012 prior to last week – but the fact that the offense is getting more creative in the red zone is definitely encouraging.

The Skinny:
•NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (out, suspension)
•ATL injuries: RB Devonta Freeman (out, knee)
•NO DFS chalk: Michael Thomas (38 percent target share in 2018)
•ATL DFS chalk: Matt Ryan (NO 32nd in QB rating allowed in 2018), Julio Jones (72 percent of ATL air yards in 2018)
•NO DFS tournament plays: none
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Calvin Ridley (NO 32nd in DVOA vs WR2 in 2018)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 25-24 ATL, average margin of victory seven points
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Alvin Kamara rips off 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Brees throws for 310 yards and three TDs, with Thomas hauling in two of them (along with more than 100 yards) and Cameron Meredith catching one in the New Orleans debut. Tevin Coleman piles up 100 combined yards and a score, while Ito Smith adds 40 yards and a receiving TD. Ryan throws for 340 yards and a second touchdown to Ridley, while Julio brings in 130 yards. Falcons, 30-28

Green Bay at Washington (+3), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: It's going to be a while before we know whether last week's bizarre tie becomes known as the $#&@! Daniel Carlson Game in Minnesota, the Clay Matthews $#&@! Roughing the Passer Call Game in Wisconsin, or gets forgotten about completely when it doesn't end up mattering in the NFC North title hunt, but the most important thing for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers came out of it none the worse for wear. Green Bay's season depends on DeShone Kizer holding a clipboard as much as possible, and on a potentially wet day at FedEx Field, that could mean a heavy dose of a running game that just got back Aaron Jones from suspension – even in a matchup against a Washington squad that just lost on home turf to the (checks notes), wait, the Colts? Really? Yikes. Alex Smith has been solid through his first two games with his new club, but as yet none of his receiving options have really established themselves as his go-to downfield guy, not even Jordan Reed. Even on a rainy day against a less than 100 percent Rodgers, he needs more help if Washington's going to keep pace.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: QB Rodgers (questionable, knee); CB Kevin King (out, groin)
•WAS injuries: LB Zach Brown (questionable, oblique); WR Paul Richardson (questionable, shoulder)
•GB DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS chalk: Chris Thompson (28 percent target share in 2018, GB 24th in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2018)
•GB DFS tournament plays: none
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Jamison Crowder (GB 24th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 55-75 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jamaal Williams sees the most snaps in the Green Bay backfield and scores a TD, but Jones leads the group with 70 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and a score to Randall Cobb. Adrian Peterson bounces back with 90 yards and a score. Smith throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Chris Thompson while running in a TD of his own. Washington, 24-20

Indianapolis (+6.5) at Philadelphia, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Speaking of the Colts, Andrew Luck hasn't exactly returned to Pro Bowl form yet – heck, Jacoby Brissett could pull off a 5.9 YPA – but that road win still counts in the standings. He's re-established his connection with T.Y. Hilton, though, and the rest of the passing game should start to fall into place around them. Winning two straight on their tour through the NFC East got a lot tougher when the Eagles announced Carson Wentz was ready to take back over under center, though. The third-year QB may not have many weapons at his disposal given all the injuries on the Philly roster, but his recovery from an ACL tear should provide the defending champs with an emotional lift they really, really need after getting Fitzambushed last week.

The Skinny:
•IND injuries: RB Marlon Mack (out, foot/hamstring); TE Jack Doyle (out, hip)
•PHI injuries: RB Jay Ajayi (out, back); RB Darren Sproles (out, hamstring); WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable, shoulder); RB Corey Clement (questionable, quad)
•IND DFS chalk: Hilton (26 percent target share in 2018)
•PHI DFS chalk: Zach Ertz (IND 22nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•IND DFS tournament plays: Ryan Grant (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Kamar Aiken (IND 24th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jordan Wilkins leads the Indy backfield with only 30 yards. Luck throws for 220 yards and a TD to Hilton, but gets picked off twice. Clement suits up and gains 60 yards, while Wendell Smallwood adds 50 combined yards. Wentz looks good, throwing for 260 yards and touchdowns to Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Eagles, 23-10

Buffalo (+16.5) at Minnesota, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Based on this line, Vegas has the score pegged at 29-12, which makes you wonder how they expect Buffalo to score 12 points. Josh Allen cleared the ankle-high bar of being better than Nathan Peterman in his first NFL start, so the Bills will stick with him under center as they compete with the Cardinals for that precious first overall pick in 2019. From a fantasy perspective, the kid could end up putting up decent numbers too, as a big arm and routine three-score deficits (and to be honest, I'm not even sure whether I mean three touchdowns or an Abe Lincoln-esque 60 points ... the Bills really are that bad) could lead to lots of garbage-time production. The Vikings are likely conflicted about last week's tie – you can make strong arguments that they absolutely should have lost and absolutely should have won that game – but a home date with a tanking opponent is just what they need to wipe the slate clean. Dalvin Cook's absence likely won't alter the game plan much, as Latavius Murray is among the best backups in the league, and Buffalo's defense has been far more vulnerable through the air anyway. Kirk Cousins has a golden opportunity to join the Fitzmagic/Mahomes September MVP discussion if he takes advantage.

The Skinny:
•BUF injuries: RB LeSean McCoy (questionable, ribs)
•MIN injuries: RB Cook (out, hamstring); DE Everson Griffen (out, knee)
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS chalk: Cousins (BUF 31st in QB rating allowed in 2018), Stefon Diggs (BUF 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018), Vikings DST (BUF 30th in sacks allowed in 2018)
•BUF DFS tournament plays: Charles Clay (MIN 23rd in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Laquon Treadwell (BUF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: McCoy starts but gains only 50 combined yards. Allen throws for 220 yards and gets picked off three times, with Harrison Smith returning one to the house. Murray glides for 80 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 300 yards and three TDs, hitting Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Vikings, 41-3

Oakland (+3) at Miami, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: On the one hand, the Raiders have looked mostly competitive under Jon Gruden, and nearly stole a win last week in Denver. On the other hand, they didn't, and their minus-21 point differential is the fourth most in the NFL (and second most if you only count teams actively trying to win). At least Amari Cooper woke up against the Broncos. Oakland's 0-2 record might not be a shock, but Miami's 2-0 mark certainly is, even if it's come against mediocre competition in the Titans and Jets. Statistically, the Dolphins' defense has been leading the way – first in QB rating allowed, third in yards per carry allowed – but with DeVante Parker set to make his season debut, the offense might finally start firing on all cylinders too.

The Skinny:
•OAK injuries: none
•MIA injuries: none
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•OAK DFS tournament plays: none
•MIA DFS tournament plays: Kenyan Drake (OAK 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB, 32nd in YPC allowed in 2018)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Marshawn Lynch grinds out 60 yards. Derek Carr throws for 250 yards and a TD to Jalen Richard. Drake gets fancy with 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Frank Gore chips in 50 yards. Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Kenny Stills. Dolphins, 27-16

Denver (+5.5) at Baltimore, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Case Keenum has been living dangerously in his new digs, but despite his erratic play, Denver is off to a tidy 2-0 start. The key has been a running attack led by Phillip Lindsay, who has more than double Royce Freeman's yards from scrimmage. Over the long haul Freeman might (should?) eventually emerge with the starting job, but it's hard to argue with Lindsay's 6.1 yards per carry. The Ravens' Jimmy Smith-less secondary has had some extra time to contemplate how they got rag-dolled by A.J. Green a couple of Thursdays ago, but until the whole defense gets closer to full strength, they could be vulnerable to any competent passing game. Whether the Keenum-led Broncos qualify yet is the big question.

The Skinny:
•DEN injuries: LB Brandon Marshall (questionable, knee)
•BAL injuries: CB Smith (out, suspension); LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, knee)
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•DEN DFS tournament plays: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Michael Crabtree (DEN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lindsay falls back to earth with 50 combined yards, while Freeman also gains 50. Keenum throws for 240 yards and a TD to Jake Butt. Alex Collins piles up 80 yards and a touchdown. Joe Flacco throws for 250 yards and scores to Crabtree and Willie Snead. Ravens, 24-13

Cincinnati (+3) at Carolina, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: With the Steelers in disarray, the AFC North suddenly looks wide open, making the Bengals' 2-0 start that much more noteworthy. Losing Joe Mixon for a few weeks will hurt, though Giovani Bernard should be solid in his place, and rookie Mark Walton will get a chance to make an impression as well. The NFC South is just as interesting, unless you believe Fitzmagic will last straight through Christmas, as all four clubs seem to have warts. The Panthers' issues start up front, as their injury-plagued offensive line has led to just 40 points through two games, but Luke Kuechly is healthy and doing Luke Kuechly things, and the defense has just barely been able to keep the team in the black.

The Skinny:
•CIN injuries: RB Mixon (out, knee); LB Vontaze Burfict (out, suspension); LB Preston Brown (questionable, ankle)
•CAR injuries: TE Greg Olsen (out, foot); LB Thomas Davis (out, suspension)
•CIN DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS chalk: Christian McCaffrey (28 percent target share in 2018, CIN 23rd in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2018)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: Bernard (CAR 28th in YPC in 2018), Tyler Boyd (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2018)
•CAR DFS tournament plays: Ian Thomas (CIN has allowed 198 yards and two TDs to opposition TEs through two games)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Bernard picks up 80 combined yards. Andy Dalton throws for 230 yards and TDs to Boyd and Tyler Eifert, but he coughs up a fumble that Kuechly returns to the end zone. McCaffrey zips for 120 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Cam Newton throws for 260 yards and runs for 40 more, hitting D.J. Moore for a second touchdown. Panthers, 31-17

N.Y. Giants (+6) at Houston, 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Yes, Giants fans, it's probably time to panic. Saquon Barkley has done his part so far, topping 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two NFL games, but the offensive line is just as tragic as it was last year despite all the money and draft picks the front office threw at it. Eli Manning is making Eli Manning Faces nearly every quarter now, and constant pressure is making life difficult not just for Manning but for Odell Beckham too. The defense, meanwhile, hasn't been bad but has only one sack without Olivier Vernon, though that might change against a Texans O-line that could be as bad or worse than the Giants' unit. The difference is that Deshaun Watson isn't a goofy-faced statue in the pocket, and can buy time for DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller to run their routes.

The Skinny:
•NYG injuries: DE Vernon (out, ankle); CB Eli Apple (out, groin)
•HOU injuries: none
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS chalk: Hopkins (33 percent target share in 2018, NYG 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: Even Engram (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•HOU DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley finds 90 combined yards. Manning throws for 260 yards and a TD to Engram but gets sacked five times, with J.J. Watt collecting his first two of the year. Lamar Miller runs for 110 yards and a touchdown. Watson throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) and Bruce Ellington. Texans, 27-10

Tennessee (+6.5) at Jacksonville, 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Marcus Mariota's elbow is quickly becoming the new version of Andrew Luck's shoulder. He's hurt, and the symptoms described do not sound good for his long-term outlook – among the skills necessary to play quarterback in the NFL, being able to grip the ball would seem to rank pretty high – but the Titans are leaving him active anyway because hey, why pay somebody else to be the backup QB when Kevin Byard can throw a pretty nifty deep ball? Kudos to Mike Vrabel and the Titans coaching staff for stealing a game via trickery last week in a difficult spot, but that seems unlikely to work against Jacksonville's all-world defense. Even if the Jags have an "OMG we finally beat the Patriots" hangover, to begin the game, pulling any shenanigans on them is only going to make them angry – and like
another famous green guy (OK, fine, the Jags wear teal), you wouldn't like them when they're angry.

The Skinny:
•TEN injuries: QB Mariota (questionable, elbow)
•JAC injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (questionable, hamstring); RB T.J. Yeldon (questionable, ankle); CB Jalen Ramsey (questionable, ankle)
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS chalk: Jaguars DST (fifth in points allowed in 2018)
•TEN DFS tournament plays: Corey Davis (JAC 22nd in DVOA against WR1 in 2018)
•JAC DFS tournament plays: Keelan Cole (TEN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018), Donte Moncrief (TEN 26th in DVOA vs. WR2, 25th vs. deep throws in 2018)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TEN, average score 24-22 TEN, average margin of victory nine points. Only three of the 10 games have been decided by more than one score, but they've all come in the last two years.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Derrick Henry bangs out 70 yards and a TD, while Dion Lewis adds 50 combined yards. Blaine Gabbert starts again, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting picked off twice. Leonard Fournette returns and picks up 80 yards. Blake Bortles throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Cole and Dede Westbrook. Jaguars, 23-13

San Francisco (+6.5) at Kansas City, 56.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: I'm almost tempted to predict a low-scoring defensive battle, since absolutely everyone expects these two teams to blow past that over/under total by halftime, but that'd be no fun. The Niners aren't quite a high-scoring juggernaut under Jimmy Garoppolo, at least not yet, and his lack of reliable targets at wide receiver has been glaring with Marquise Goodwin banged up. Matt Breida appears to be emerging as a dynamic top option in the backfield, though, and the pieces of a Kyle Shanahan attack are slowing coming into place. There's been nothing slow about the Chiefs this year. Patrick Mahomes has carried the passing game to new heights, but the threadbare defense has made every single one of those touchdowns necessary – Kansas City leads the NFL in points scored but has also allowed the fourth most. It's a good thing their uniforms are basically fire-engine red, because they're going to be playing in a lot of barn burners this season.

The Skinny:
•SF injuries: WR Goodwin (questionable, quad); S Jaquiski Tartt (questionable, shoulder)
•KC injuries: S Eric Berry (doubtful, heel)
•SF DFS chalk: George Kittle (KC 31st in DVOA vs, TE in 2018)
•KC DFS chalk: Travis Kelce (SF 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•SF DFS tournament plays: Garoppolo (KC 24th in QB rating with a 6:1 TD:INT allowed in 2018), Breida (KC 23rd in YPC allowed, 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2018)
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Breida racks up 130 combined yards and a receiving score. Garoppolo throws for 340 yards and four total TDs, also finding Kittle, Pierre Garcon and Garrett Celek. Kareem Hunt responds with 140 combined yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and TDs to Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Chiefs, 34-28

L.A. Chargers (+7) at L.A. Rams, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: Not that I expect the NFL schedule-makers to listen to me, but if they schedule another meeting between these two teams next season on the first Sunday in November, it'll also mark the 20th anniversary of the release of Rage Against the Machine's Battle of Los Angeles album. Maybe they can do another reunion for the halftime show. I'm sure Zack will be down with all the cross-branding possibilities. Anyway, the Chargers only managed to beat the Bills by 11 points last week, which should really count as a loss, while the Rams shut out the Cards and now easily lead the NFL in point differential. Philip Rivers and the Bolts are masters of doing what no one expects, so maybe they keep this one close, but without Joey Bosa to help "force" Jared Goff into quick throws (like he isn't looking to do that already) it's hard to see a path to competitiveness for them, much less an upset.

The Skinny:
•LAC injuries: DE Bosa (out, foot); TE Antonio Gates (questionable, illness
•LAR injuries: K Greg Zuerlein (out, groin); LB Mark Barron (doubtful, ankle)
•LAC DFS chalk: none
•LAR DFS chalk: Brandin Cooks (26 percent target share, LAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•LAC DFS tournament plays: Virgil Green (LAR has allowed a league-high 217 yards to TE in 2018)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon managed 70 yards but gets held out of the end zone, while Austin Ekeler adds 60 combined yards. Rivers throws for 240 yards and TDs to Keenan Allen and Green. Todd Gurley pounds out 90 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 280 yards and scores to Cooks and Robert Woods. Rams 27-14

Dallas (+1.5) at Seattle, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Cowboys' pass rush brought down Cam Newton three times in their opener, then got to Eli Manning six times last week. The math clearly points to nine sacks this Sunday against Russell Wilson, and given the state of the Seahawks' offensive line, that somehow doesn't seem unreasonable. (Twelve against Matthew Stafford in Week 4 might be asking a lot, though). The question for Dallas is whether its offense can get enough points for DeMarcus Lawrence and company's exploits to matter. Dak Prescott hit Tavon Austin for a bomb on their opening drive against the Giants, and after that the offense went right back into its dink-and-dunk shell. If teams don't suffer for loading the box against Ezekiel Elliott, it could still end up being a very long, dull season for the Cowboys. They still have more going for them than the 0-2 Seahawks, though. Wilson's offensive line remains a travesty, he lacks weapons on offense (though Rashaad Penny showed some encouraging signs last week), and the defense ... well, ESPN's graphics department is just ice cold, man.

The Skinny:
•DAL injuries: LB Sean Lee (questionable, hamstring); DE David Irving (out, suspension); WR Cole Beasley (questionable, ankle)
•SEA injuries: WR Doug Baldwin (out, knee); LB K.J. Wright (out, knee); S Earl Thomas (questionable, personal)
•DAL DFS chalk: Elliott (SEA 23rd in rushing yards allowed, 28th in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2018)
•SEA DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Cowboys DST (tied for second in sacks, SEA 31st in sacks allowed in 2018)
•SEA DFS tournament plays: Will Dissly (DAL 25th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott pops for 120 combined yards and a TD. Prescott is once again quiet, throwing for less than 200 yards but hitting Deonte Thompson for a score. Penny leads the Seattle backfield with 70 yards. Wilson steals the show, throwing for 280 yards and touchdowns to Tyler Lockett and Nick Vannett while also running in a TD. Seahawks, 24-20

Chicago at Arizona (+6), 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: One late collapse against Aaron Rodgers aside, Khalil Mack has turned the Bears defense into a fairly fearsome unit, which is more than can be said for the new Matt Nagy offense. It's not yet clear whether that's due to Mitchell Trubisky's actual limitations, or simply his new coach's lack of faith in him, but either way the second-year QB hasn't exactly been airing it out – his 5.4 YPA is somehow lower than it was last year. Of course, Sam Bradford would be thrilled with a 5.4 YPA right about now, and given what happened in Cleveland on Thursday, Cards fans (and anyone with David Johnson shares) can probably be forgiven if some small part of them is rooting for the veteran to get knocked out of Sunday's game so Josh Rosen can get his shot. The 10th overall pick in this year's draft probably gives Arizona its best chance to win games now, but winning games in 2018 may not be the top priority of the team's brain trust.

The Skinny:
•CHI injuries: none
•ARI injuries: WR Larry Fitzgerald (questionable, hamstring); DE Markus Golden (questionable, knee)
•CHI DFS chalk: Jordan Howard (ARI 28th in rushing yards allowed in 2018)
•ARI DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Tarik Cohen (ARI 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2018), Trey Burton (ARI 28th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: Christian Kirk (CHI 28th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Howard rumbles for 90 yards and a TD, while Cohen adds 60 combined yards. Trubisky throws for 210 yards and a score to Burton. Johnson gallops for 110 combined yards. Bradford throws for under 200 yards but does hit Kirk for his first NFL touchdown. Bears, 20-16

New England at Detroit (+6.5), 52.0 o.u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Pats are still in the "getting to know you" phase of their season – a period which might extend a little longer than usual after the addition of Josh Gordon – but there's still no reason to think they won't be AFC East champs when it's all said and done. I mean, who else is gonna win it, the Dolphins? The pasting they got from the Jags could linger, though, even if it does provide extra motivation in a potential playoff rematch. Tom Brady will be looking to take his frustrations out on a Lions defense that could be all too willing to accommodate him, as it's tied with the Bills for the most points allowed in the league. That bodes well for Matthew Stafford's garbage-time production, and maybe even his chances at another late comeback, but even with Kenny Golladay's emergence the offense still isn't quite in sync. Getting any kind of contribution from the running game, whether from Kerryon Johnson or LeGarrette Blount, would be a start.

The Skinny:
•NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (out, suspension); WR Josh Gordon (questionable, hamstring); S Patrick Chung (doubtful, concussion)
•DET injuries: WR Marvin Jones (questionable, ankle); DDE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, shoulder); CB Darius Slay (questionable, concussion)
•NE DFS chalk: Brady (DET 30th in QB rating allowed in 2018), Rob Gronkowski (DET 27th in DVOA vs. TE in 2018)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: Sony Michel (DET 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 31st in YPC allowed in 2018), Chris Hogan (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•DET DFS tournament plays: Golden Tate (NE 27th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2018)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Sony Michel leads the NE backfield with 80 yards, while James White adds 50 combined yards. Brady throws for 330 yards and four TDs, two each to Gronk and Hogan. Johnson finds 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 300 yards and TDs to Tate and Golladay. Patriots, 31-27

N.Y. Jets (+3) at Cleveland, 39.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: There was nothing funnier last weekend than watching ads proclaiming that this year's Thursday night lineup was so much better than previous years, really and truly, only to then cut to a graphic with these two helmets. The Sam Darnold narrative has overshadowed the work being done by the Jets defense – third in QB rating allowed through two games (64.7), 12th in YPC allowed (3.8) – and the unit should get even better once Marcus Maye gets healthy. Darnold himself has been up and down despite not facing a really tough defense yet, but the Browns don't qualify either, especially with Christian Kirksey less than 100 percent healthy. On the other side of the ball, Tyrod Taylor's running out of guys to throw to, with Josh Gordon now the Patriots' problem and Jarvis Landry limping. If Cleveland wins, his ability to scramble could play a key role – the Jets haven't even allowed 50 rushing yards total to QBs yet, but Taylor could easily top that mark single-handedly. Really, though, this game comes down to which coach you trust to get his team ready on a short week, Todd Bowles or Hue Jackson. I think the real winner in that titanic clash is going to be people who enjoy watching videos like this.

The Skinny:
•NYJ injuries: S Marcus Maye (doubtful, foot)
•CLE injuries: WR Jarvis Landry (questionable, knee), LB Christian Kirksey (doubtful, shoulder), S Damarious Randall (questionable, heel)
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•CLE DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: Bilal Powell (CLE 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB in 2017 and so far in 2018)
•CLE DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 10-12 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Powell leads the Jets' backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Isaiah Crowell also bangs in a score. Darnold throws for 220 yards and a second touchdown to Robby Anderson, and only gets picked off once. Carlos Hyde grinds out 60 yards. Taylor throws for 210 yards and a TD to Rashard Higgins while running in a score as well, but a late pick by Jamal Adams keeps the Browns winless. Jets, 21-17

Last week's record: 8-7-1, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 17-13-2, 11-19-2 ATS, 12-20 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS