NFL Game Previews: Rams-Packers Matchup

L.A. Rams (+7) at Green Bay, o/u 39.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

You know, I feel like I should have seen that coming. Not just that it's been Chaos Season, but I was also the guy coming into the year who was saying, "Y'know, Baker Mayfield really isn't that bad. I'll give him a mulligan on 2021 because of his shoulder, and really, how many home games in terrible weather has he had in Cleveland?" Last week's miracle game-winning drive despite having all of about five minutes of practice time with the rest of the offense isn't going to save the Rams' season, but it at least gives him a better chance of finding a decent job next season. Mayfield should remain as the starting QB the rest of the way, but he doesn't have anyone to throw to, and the team has somehow gone from seventh in PPG last year to 29th in 2022, so that one drive last week could well end up being the high point of his Rams tenure.

The Packers got a bye last week, which was enough time for Aaron Rodgers to get "healthy" again and LOL NO the idea of Jordan Love getting significant reps on a team that isn't making the playoffs. Green Bay hasn't been officially eliminated, but they're 5-8 in a conference where 9-7-1 look like it might be the minimum needed for a wild-card spot. Even if they win out, the Packers are probably falling short, and with two wins in their last nine games, a 4-0 finish seems, well, let's say improbable. At least the rebuilt receiving corps is looking good. Christian Watson has eight total TDs in the last four games along with 313 receiving yards, and the other rookie, Romeo Doubs (19-184-2 over his first four NFL games), is healthy again, so Allen Lazard doesn't have to pretend he's a No. 1 guy any more. Aaron Jones is banged up, but AJ Dillon has come on in his place, so this is a team that in theory should be able to score some points ... if it didn't have a QB stubbornly playing through a broken thumb and assorted other bumps and bruises.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: QB Matthew Stafford (IR, neck), WR Cooper Kupp (IR, ankle), WR Allen Robinson (IR, foot)
GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, ankle)

LAR DFS targets: Cam Akers $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (GB 32nd in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed)
GB DFS targets: Watson $5,700 DK / $7,000 FD (LAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS fades: Ben Skowronek $3,800 DK / $5,500 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR2)
GB DFS fades: Randall Cobb $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (LAR second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: GB 16th in net yards per play at -0.13; LAR 29th at -0.78

Weather notes: temperature in the low 20s, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Akers gains 90 yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 220 yards and a score to Tyler Higbee but gets picked off twice. Dillon leads the GB backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and TDs to Watson and Doubs. Packers 24-14

Atlanta (+4.5) at New Orleans, o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons probably should have made the switch to Desmond Ridder weeks ago, but the shoddy play of the rest of the NFC South kept them in the title hunt and made Arthur Smith believe sticking with a "steady veteran" in Marcus Mariota was the best course. Now they're 5-8 and still only one game behind the Bucs, but Mariota's hurt or upset he's being replaced by a rookie or both, so Ridder's got the job the rest of the way. Mariota hadn't reached 200 passing yards or topped a 7.0 YPA in five consecutive games, so the bar the kid needs to clear is pretty low. Cordarrelle Patterson hasn't done much during that time either, and as a result the team has scored more than 17 points only once in those five games. Getting him going might be more important to Atlanta's chances of sneaking into the postseason than Ridder becoming the next Brock Purdy.

Somehow the Saints are even worse at 4-9. Like their opponents here, they've lost four of their last five and haven't scored more than 16 points in any of the losses, including a shutout against the Niners. What's worse, the New Orleans defense hasn't given up more than 20 points in four straight, so the games were there for the taking if the offense could have gotten its act together. Andy Dalton remains mostly mediocre, but he might be due for one of his occasional big games to dissuade Dennis Allen from even thinking about switching back to Jameis Winston. The bigger issue, again like the Falcons, is the lack of production from their stud running back. Alvin Kamara hasn't scored a TD in five games, averaging just 56.6 scrimmage yards during that stretch, and without him being, well, Alvin Kamara, the team is fairly rudderless. Chris Olave, who's been the better of the two first-round rookie wideouts in this game, has somehow remained something of a factor, posting a 23-340-1 line on 35 targets while the rest of the offense was asleep. He's one big game away from a 1,000-yard campaign, or more likely, two merely OK ones.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: QB Mariota (IR, knee), TE Kyle Pitts (IR, knee)
NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (IR, knee), WR Michael Thomas (IR, toe), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, ankle)

ATL DFS targets: Damiere Byrd $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
NO DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: MyCole Pruitt $2,600 DK / $4,900 FD and Anthony Firkser $2,500 DK / $4,500 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO seventh in net yards per play at 0.56; ATL 21st at -0.32

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 NO, average score 25-21 NO, average margin of victory eight points. NO has won five of the last six meetings, but ATL's one win during that stretch came in the Superdome, a 27-25 victory in Week 9 of last season

The Scoop: Patterson pops for 90 combined yards and a score. Ridder struggles in his debut, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting picked off twice, but he does find Drake London for a TD. Kamara zips for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Taysom Hill also runs in one. Dalton throws for 270 yards and a TD to Olave, who tops 100 yards. Saints 27-14

Pittsburgh (+3) at Carolina, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Steelers have been a scrappy bunch since their bye, going 3-2 with the two losses coming by a single score. Had Kenny Pickett been able to stay in the game against the Ravens, they might be 4-1 and creeping into the wild-card picture. Instead, Pickett got concussed and Mitch Trubisky tossed three INTs in his place. The rookie had one INT total in his last five starts prior to last week, so kudos to Trubisky for putting to rest any possibility of a QB controversy in Pittsburgh. In fact, he was so bad there's a chance Mason Rudolph might start if Pickett can't suit up. The Steelers would prefer that it didn't matter who was under center, and they could just win with their running game and defense, and that formula's worked more often than not lately. Najee Harris has four rushing TDs in the last four games, while T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and company have generated 10 sacks and seven takeaways in the last five.

Has Steve Wilks earned the right to have the "interim" removed from his job title? A Panthers squad that was dead in the water under Matt Rhule is 4-4 under Wilks, including wins in three of their last four, and that level of adequacy has been good enough to keep them in the NFC South title chase. The fact that they've had a revolving door at quarterback makes that run even more impressive. Sam Darnold hasn't been good in two games since taking over, but PJ Walker isn't any better, and Baker Mayfield's now trying to salvage his career with the Rams, so Darnold's what they've got. The running game has been keeping the team afloat anyway. D'Onta Foreman has four 100-yard performances in the last seven games, Chuba Hubbard's snuck in a few productive afternoons behind him, and even Raheem Blackshear has scored a couple TDs.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: QB Pickett (doubtful, concussion)
CAR injuries: WR DJ Moore (questionable, ankle)

PIT DFS targets: none
CAR DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR 18th in net yards per play at -0.19; PIT 28th at -0.75

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Harris gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Trubisky starts and throws for 220 yards. Foreman bashes out 70 yards and a score. Darnold throws for 200 yards and a TD to DJ Moore. Panthers 17-16

Philadelphia at Chicago (+9), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Four straight wins, the last three by an average score of about 41-22, plus the league's best record. There are a handful of teams that can make tentative claims to being the best team in the NFL, but it's hard to argue against it being the Eagles. It's hard to argue against Jalen Hurts' MVP case either — since the team's bye he has a 69.1 percent completion rate, 8.1 YPA and 16:1 TD:INT over the last seven games, with nearly 400 rushing yards and four TDs added to the pile. He's the first QB in NFL history with back-to-back seasons of double-digit rushing touchdowns, and he's the first Philly player at any position with consecutive 10-plus TD campaigns since Brian Westbrook. Oh, and he only seems to be getting better as a passer. With the opposition forced to slow Hurts any way it can, Miles Sanders has also erupted for 311 rushing yards and five TDs the last three games. Even the run defense has come around, as the Eagles have stifled Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in back-to-back weeks. At this point in the fantasy season, if you're starting someone on a team facing Philadelphia, you're doing it in the hopes of some garbage-time production.

The Bears lost six consecutive games heading into last week's bye, and they're now nestled comfortably in the top 3 in the 2023 draft. It was easy in the preseason to say Justin Fields in 2022 was at the same spot in his career as Hurts in 2021, or Josh Allen in 2019, but he's actually started to earn those comparisons his last few games with a 69.7 percent completion rate and 8.7 YPA, massive improvements over his prior numbers. He's also thrown four INTs against just three TDs (plus four rushing TDs, of course) during that stretch, so there are still plenty of kinks to work out, but Fields is showing enough progress to dissuade Chicago from using that early pick on a QB next year and instead pluck the top left tackle or one of the top front seven guys on the board, or even trade down if someone else wants a QB badly enough. Considering Fields cost them their 2022 first-round pick (the Giants used it on Evan Neal), he owes them that much.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (IR-R, shoulder)
CHI injuries: RB Khalil Herbert (IR, hip), WR Darnell Mooney (IR, ankle), WR Chase Claypool (out, knee)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts $8,200 DK / $9,000 FD (CHI 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed to QB), A.J. Brown $8,000 DK / $8,200 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Eagles DST $3,900 DK / $4,800 FD (first in sacks, t-1st in takeaways, CHI 28th in sacks allowed)
CHI DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: Fields $7,400 DK / $7,900 FD (PHI second in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed), Claypool $4,500 DK / $5,800 FD (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR1), Equanimeous St. Brown $3,700 DK / $5,200 FD (PHI third in DVOA vs. WR2), Bears DST $2,300 DK / $3,100 FD (last in sacks, PHI first in giveaways)

Key stat: PHI first in net yards per play at 1.18; CHI 23rd at -0.37

Weather notes: temperature in the low 20s, 13 mph wind

The Scoop: Sanders runs for 130 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for 320 yards and a second score to Brown (who tops 100 yards) while running in two TDs of his own. David Montgomery manages 50 yards. Fields throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does throw one score to Cole Kmet while running in another. Eagles 35-17

Kansas City at Houston (+14), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While they're staying neck and neck with the Bills for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, there are reasons to be concerned about Kansas City. I mean, they just gave up 28 points to the Broncos, which seems impossible. Patrick Mahomes and the offense are mostly firing on all cylinders, averaging 29.3 points in the last seven games and piling up more than 400 yards in six of them, but the defense has coughed up at least 27 points in three of the last four, making what should be laughers into relative nail-biters. Mahomes' three INTs last week were a big part of the problem, and over those last seven games he's tossed seven picks against 16 TDs, but that doesn't explain how the secondary allowed Russell Wilson to look like Seattle Russ instead of Denver Russ. The team's probably going to clinch another AFC West title Sunday, but K.C. has some things to figure out before the playoffs.

All the Texans have to figure out, however, is which quarterback they're going to take first overall in next year's draft. In theory they could still blow the No. 1 pick by picking up a couple wins down the stretch, but they dodged a bullet last week by letting the Cowboys rally late, and I'm confident Houston can avoid any other wins until it's too late to matter. Davis Mills started at QB, but Lovie Smith got crafty by mixing in Jeff Driskel as a scrambling threat, and it worked ... for a while. Kansas City has looked a little vulnerable to running QBs — Wilson ran for a season-high 57 yards last week, and Joe Burrow picked up 46 yards and a TD on the ground the week before — so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Houston's duo split snaps again. It's not like the offense has anything else going for it. Dameon Pierce is out, Mills hasn't tossed a TD pass since Week 10 and the wideout corps isn't healthy. To be honest, I'm not completely sure how the Texans are going to cover the spread, which is what my little jury-rigged algorithm spat out, but after last week's performances by both teams I'm not going to overrule it.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, ankle), WR Kadarius Toney (questionable, hamstring), WR Mecole Hardman (IR-R, abdomen)
HOU injuries: RB Pierce (out, ankle), WR Brandin Cooks (out, calf), WR Nico Collins (out, foot)

KC DFS targets: Isiah Pacheco $5,900 DK / $7,600 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed), Kansas City DST $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD (fourth in sacks, HOU 31st in giveaways)
HOU DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC second in net yards per play at 1.10; HOU 32nd at -0.86

The Scoop: Pacheco has a career-best performance, rushing for 130 yards and two TDs. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and two scores, finding Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Rex Burkhead leads the HOU backfield with 60 combined yards. Mills throws for less than 200 yards, but Driskel runs in a touchdown. Tremon Smith returns a kickoff to the house to keep things semi-close. Kansas City 31-20

Dallas at Jacksonville (+4.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Cowboys gonna Cowboy. On paper, Dallas has one of the best rosters in the league, is dripping with talent on both sides of the ball, and has coordinators that can get creative in deploying the pieces at their disposal. In reality, this team had given three consecutive "inferior" teams (sorry, Giants fans) early leads before cranking things up late, and against the Texans last week late meant the final two minutes. A win would lock up a playoff spot for the Cowboys, even if they don't catch the Eagles for the NFC East crown, but it's hard to view them as a true Super Bowl contender if they have trouble putting away the dregs of the AFC South. Dak Prescott's been picked off seven times in five games since the team's bye, which isn't helping, but scoring points hasn't been the issue (they're averaging an absurd 35.4 points over that stretch.) The defense has overall been fine too, grabbing 15 sacks and 10 takeaways during that time while allowing less than 20 points a game on average. Now, though, it's all adding up to less than the sum of the parts.

At 5-8, the Jaguars aren't quite out of the wild-card picture, but they aren't really in it either. They're that one cousin who shows up for the family reunion and gets tucked into the back of the group photo, just peeking over someone's shoulder. Trevor Lawrence continues to take two steps forward and one step back despite his sore toe, dazzling against the Ravens and Titans but somehow disappearing against the Lions, but overall he appears on track for a 2023 breakout. More worrying is Travis Etienne's own vanishing act, as the second-year RB has a baffling 101 total scrimmage yards over the last three games. Is his foot bothering him more than the team is letting on? Baltimore and Tennessee have stout run defenses, but he flopped against Detroit too. The Cowboys' best path to stopping the run is to force the other team to abandon it, and that decision will be a little easier for Doug Pederson if Etienne keeps averaging 2.8 yards a carry.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, toe), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension)

DAL DFS targets: Prescott $6,200 DK / $7,500 FD (JAC 30th in passing DVOA, 28th in passing yards per game allowed), Dalton Schultz $4,400 DK / $6,500 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Cowboys DST $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (second in sacks, t-1st in takeaways)
JAC DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $6,000 DK / $7,400 FD (DAL first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed)

Key stat: DAL third in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; JAC t-27th in red-zone defense at 63.6 percent

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Ezekiel Elliott picks up 70 yards and a touchdown while Tony Pollard adds 70 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 290 yards and two scores, finding Schultz and Michael Gallup. Etienne gets held to 50 yards. Lawrence throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Zay Jones and Marvin Jones, while Devin Lloyd returns a Schultz fumble to the house. Cowboys 28-27

Detroit (+1) at New York Jets, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After winning five of their last six, the Lions suddenly find themselves with only two teams between them and a wild-card spot — the reeling Seahawks (who they lost to in Week 4) and the fading Giants (who they beat in Week 11). Detroit also has the easiest closing schedule of the three. Well now. The offense is roaring again, with the Lions averaging 32.2 points a game in their last five, and the defense ... OK, the defense has given up more than 400 yards in four of those five, but the opposition's only turned that into 22.6 PPG. Turnovers have staunched the bleeding, with Detroit boasting a plus-6 edge over that stretch. Just as Sean McVay managed to do a few years ago, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has found a way to play to Jared Goff's strengths by limiting his downfield attempts and letting the team's skill players do their thing — Goff is 23rd in intended air yards per attempt but fourth in yards after catch per completion, with Amon-Ra St. Brown sitting fifth among wide receivers in total yards after catch, just ahead of Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs. Of course, limited doesn't mean eliminated, as first-round pick Jameson Williams made his belated introduction to the NFL with a 41-yard TD on his first catch last week. There's a lot of talent here, and while I think they'd be better off looking for an upgrade on Goff in the offseason — say, with the Rams' first-round pick, currently set to be fourth overall — you can hardly blame them if they decide to use it to give Aidan Hutchinson some help instead.

The Jets may have waited too long to bench Zach Wilson. They've lost three of four to tumble out of a wild-card spot, and while they're still 7-6, having been swept by the Patriots effectively makes them two games back of New England if they end up with identical records. Then again, Mike White only lasted three games as the starter before getting hurt and putting Wilson back under center, so maybe they just took a different path to wind up in the same place. The second-year QB failed to complete half his passes in two of his last three starts before White took over, but maybe sitting the last few weeks has helped him settle down. Zonovan Knight has looked good as the new lead back, and Garrett Wilson has had the best season by a rookie WR in Jets history, but Zach has a lot to prove — especially to the defense, who got tired of carrying the team while the offense was scrambling to reach 20 points every week.

The Skinny

DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
NYJ injuries: QB White (out, ribs), RB Breece Hall (IR, knee), WR Corey Davis (out, concussion)

DET DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: ZWilson $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Knight $5,300 DK / $7,200 FD (DET 29th in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

DET DFS fades: Goff $5,700 DK / $7,300 FD (NYJ fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)
NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET first in red-zone conversions at 75.0 percent; NYJ 20th in red-zone defense at 57.6 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-11 mph wind

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift leads the DET backfield with 70 yards, while Jamaal Williams vultures a TD. Goff throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to St. Brown. Knight gains 60 yards and a score. ZWilson throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Tyler Conklin but gets picked off twice. Lions 17-14

Arizona (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 36 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Cardinals' season was already done after losing three straight and five of the last six, but with Kyler Murray now headed for ACL surgery, it's done-done. Colt McCoy will take over at QB, and backups Trace McSorley and David Blough don't really have any kind of upside that would compel Kliff Kingsbury to make a switch with an eye on the future. (Carson Strong on the other hand, who's now on the practice squad, might be worth a look at some point.) Whoever slings the ball around will still have DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown (maybe) to throw to, but will be slinging it behind a patchwork offensive line, so don't expect much. If anything, it's just more good news for anyone with James Conner shares, as the former Steeler has piled up 394 scrimmage yards and five total TDs the last four games, and he should be the clear focal point of the offense the rest of the way.

Denver's disaster of a season has been somehow even worse than Arizona's, but they're in the same pickle at quarterback this week with Russell Wilson in the concussion protocols and Brett Rypien taking over. The Broncos have lost five straight, and until they got Mahomesed, the defense hadn't allowed more than 23 points in eight straight, which makes the losing streak even harder to wrap your head around. Wilson's been terrible, though, and the brief flicker of chemistry he showed with Jerry Jeudy in the loss to Kansas City doesn't erase the months of futility that preceded it. If the season had ended after Week 14, Denver would be shipping the second overall pick in the 2023 draft to Seattle, but they still have time to make the pick a bit worse. Their best path to accomplishing that bit of sabotage might be to see if Marlon Mack can turn the clock back to 2019 for more than just one play.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (IR, knee), WR Brown (questionable, illness), WR Rondale Moore (IR, groin), TE Zach Ertz (IR, knee)
DEN injuries: QB Wilson (out, concussion), RB Javonte Williams (IR, knee), WR Courtland Sutton (out, hamstring), WR KJ Hamler (out, hamstring), WR Kendall Hinton (out, hamstring)

ARI DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Greg Dulcich $3,600 DK / $5,600 FD (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: McCoy $5,000 DK / $6,100 FD (DEN third in passing DVOA, second in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Robbie Anderson $3,100 DK / $4,900 FD (DEN fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
DEN DFS fades: Jeudy $6,100 DK / $7,400 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: ARI 24th in third-down conversions at 37.0 percent; DEN t-3rd in third-down defense at 33.1 percent

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Conner churns out 90 yards. McCoy throws for less than 200 yards. Mack leads the DEN backfield with 80 yards and a TD, while Latavius Murray adds 50 and a score. Rypien also throws for less than 200 yards. Broncos 20-9

New England at Las Vegas (+1), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Welcome to the second McDaniels Bowl, as Josh McDaniels faces his former boss. In the first McDaniels Bowl back in 2009, Josh's Broncos beat Bill Belichick's Patriots 20-17 in a Week 5 overtime thriller that saw Denver score the only points after halftime to rally from a 17-7 deficit, making McDaniels 5-0 to begin his head coaching career. He's gone 11-25 since. This season's Raiders team had won three straight and was threatening to get back into the wild-card race until they got Mayfielded last week in Los Angeles. A loss would doom them to a losing record, and put the final nail in the coffin of their 2022. Josh Jacobs keeps collecting minor injuries along with his yards and touchdowns but remains on track for his first rushing crown, more than 200 yards ahead of second-place Derrick Henry. Davante Adams also leads all wide receivers in TDs with 12 and is top 5 in catches and yards, making for the ideal fantasy scenario of a productive offense that only flows through two guys. Those two guys will get some help soon as Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are practicing again, but they may not make it back this week. There's no rush, though. I mean, what's the worst that can happen against a Belichick defense that only has to worry about shutting down two players?

There are three AFC teams at 7-6 fighting for the final wild-card spot, but at the moment the Patriots hold it by virtue of conference winning percentage, so this isn't a game they can afford to look past even if it's the easiest one left on their schedule (they get the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills to close things out, so if they do make the playoffs they'll have earned it.) We're at the point in the season where Belichick just sticks his depth chart up on a wall and starts throwing darts at the players who have little "questionable" flags attached. Is Rhamondre Stevenson going to play? Will Damien Harris get a chance to reclaim the starting job? Or is it Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris time? The receiving corps is in worse shape with DeVante Parker out and Jakobi Meyers potentially stuck in the concussion protocols too, so this could wind up being one of those wacky New England box scores where even die-hard fans are left running to Google to figure out who the heck just scored that touchdown. I'll give you a head start so you can impress your friends — Raleigh Webb is an undrafted rookie free agent out of The Citadel who was converted from defensive back in college and also ran track, and who spent the early part of the season bouncing between the Ravens' practice squad and special-teams units.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Stevenson (questionable, ankle), RB Harris (questionable, thigh), WR Meyers (questionable, concussion), WR Parker (out, concussion)
LV injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, quadriceps), WR Hunter Renfrow (IR-R, oblique), TE Darren Waller (IR-R, hamstring)

NE DFS targets: Mac Jones $5,000 DK / $6,700 FD (LV 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPA allowed), Kendrick Bourne $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
LV DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV 29th in red-zone conversions at 44.7 percent; NE t-11th in red-zone defense at 53.8 percent

The Scoop: Strong leads the NE backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Jones throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Bourne and Tyquan Thornton. Jacobs manages 70 yards and a score. Derek Carr throws for 240 yards and a TD to Adams. Patriots 27-17

Tennessee (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Last week's loss to the Jaguars makes the Titans road to the AFC South title a little trickier. They're still two games up with four to play and have a near-guaranteed win over the Texans to look forward to (unless Chaos Season strikes again), but if Tennessee goes 1-2 and Jacksonville (who also gets to play Houston) goes 2-1, suddenly their Week 18 rematch is for all the marbles. That would also create a scenario in which an 8-9 team is a division champ and in the playoffs ahead of, say, a nine-win or even 10-win AFC East team. Wheee! The Titans are in that boat because they've dropped three consecutive games, and the last two haven't even been all that close as the defense has had its two worst showings since a Week 2 rout at the hands of the Bills. Derrick Henry bounced back from a couple quiet rushing performances to trample the Jags, but the passing game has fallen asleep again just as Treylon Burks has gotten hurt. A coincidence, I'm sure. This roster is designed to grind out close wins, but if the defense is coughing up 30-plus every week that isn't going to happen.

At 7-6, the Chargers are in the AFC wild-card muddle but on the outside looking in. They should probably be viewed as a favorite to eventually make it into the postseason, though you can never rule out the Bolts making a mess of something — the remaining teams on their schedule have a combined 18-33-1 record. They're getting healthy at the right time, with Mike Williams returning last week and torching Miami for a 6-116-1 line. Justin Herbert's thrown for 702 yards the last two games but curiously only two TDs, and the offense hasn't reached the 30-point mark since Week 5. The roster, when at full strength, has way too much talent for that, and the Chargers need Herbert and the offense to get going as the defense is missing its three biggest assets in Joey Bosa, Derwin James and J.C. Jackson.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Burks (out, concussion)
LAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

TEN DFS targets: Henry $8,000 DK / $8,900 FD (LAC 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)
LAC DFS targets: Herbert $7,200 DK / $8,300 FD (TEN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Williams $6,300 DK / $7,200 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

TEN DFS fades: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,100 DK / $5,400 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)
LAC DFS fades: Austin Ekeler $8,500 DK / $8,700 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: TEN sixth in red-zone conversions at 65.7 percent; LAC t-6th in red-zone defense at 51.2 percent

The Scoop: Henry rumbles for 120 yards and two scores. Ryan Tannehill throws for 210 yards and a TD to Robert Woods. Ekeler puts together 60 combined yards. Herbert erupts for 350 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Williams (who tops 100 yards) twice and Keenan Allen (who also tops 100 yards) and Gerald Everett once each. Chargers 28-27

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (+3.5), o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Bengals once again look like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year, winning five straight and outscoring their opponents roughly 30-20 (29.8-20.2, to be precise.) Joe Burrow's been good during the winning streak, but it's the running game that's carried the load. Joe Mixon has 379 combined yards and five total TDs in the last three contests he's suited up for, and Samaje Perine has covered for him when he's been out with 418 scrimmage yards and five total TDs over that five-game stretch. It's a good thing too, because just as Ja'Marr Chase returned to the lineup, Tee Higgins got banged up. So long as Burrow keeps getting a bit of time in the pocket though, it hasn't seemed to matter how healthy his wideout group is, as he can make anyone look good. Just ask Trenton Irwin.

So, bad as that "8-9 AFC South team making the playoffs" scenario above might seem, that's not even the worst plausible division-winning record on the table at the moment. Expect ALL the outrage to flow if the NFC South winners come in at 7-10 and shut a team like the Giants out of the playoffs. It's not impossible. The 6-7 Bucs lead the way and have dropped two of their last three, and haven't looked convincing on U.S. soil all season. Somehow, a Tom Brady-led offense hasn't scored more than 22 points in nine consecutive games, averaging a Broncos-esque 15.8 PPG over that stretch. The defense also isn't what it once was, surrendering 35 to the Brock Purdy-led 49ers last week. The once-elite run defense has crumbled, and the injury-riddled secondary wasn't all that great to begin with. The only thing Tampa Bay has going for it is that New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina have been marginally worse. Betting against Brady has lost a lot of people a lot of money over the years, but honestly, if you asked me who I think is going to emerge from this swamp of mediocrity to host a playoff game, I think I might have to go with the Panthers, who have already beaten the Bucs once and face them again in Week 17.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Higgins (questionable, hamstring), WR Tyler Boyd (questionable, finger), TE Hayden Hurst (out, calf)
TB injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee)

CIN DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: Bengals DST $3,600 DK / $3,600 FD (30th in sacks, TB second in sacks allowed)
TB DFS fades: Buccaneers DST $2,600 DK / $4,000 FD (t-28th in takeaways, CIN t-2nd in giveaways)

Key stat: CIN fourth in red-zone conversions at 66.7 percent; TB 21st in red-zone defense at 58.3 percent

Weather notes: 9-10 mph wind

The Scoop: Mixon leads the CIN backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Perine adds 60 yards and a score. Burrow throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Chase and Higgins. Rachaad White leads the TB backfield with 60 combined yards but Leonard Fournette picks up 40 and a score. Brady throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Chris Godwin. Bengals 28-17

N.Y. Giants (+4.5) at Washington, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Two weeks after these two trudged their way to a tie, they're at it again. In between, the Commanders got a bye while the Giants were getting their butts kicked by the Eagles, which wouldn't seem to bode well for Big Blue. Brian Daboll's crew hasn't won a game since Week 10, and while the Giants still cling to a wild-card spot, their early season magic seems to have dissipated. The receiving corps remains patchwork, but Saquon Barkley averaging just 54 scrimmage yards a game over the winless streak have been the biggest issue. It's tough to say whether he's playing less than 100 percent healthy again, if defenses simply have stopped worrying about whether Daniel Jones can beat them, or some combination of the two, but if Barkley isn't delivering, the team's chances of coming out on top are bleak. The defense has also given up 31.8 PPG over those four games, but the Giants have faced three top-5 offenses in Philly, Dallas and Detroit, so it's fair to cut them some slack. They did hold Washington to 20 points, which should have been enough.

The Commanders' shocking win over the Eagles in Week 10 is paying further dividends, as it currently gives them a tie-breaking edge over the Giants due to divisional record. Where New York is stuck in a winless slump, Washington's 3-0-1 over their last four and 5-1-1 since Taylor Heinicke took over as the QB. Carson Wentz is healthy, but he's not getting his job back unless the team really goes in the tank under Heinicke, and at that point it probably wouldn't matter. Terry McLaurin's certainly enjoyed the switch, posting three 100-yard performances with Heinicke and sitting on the brink of another 1,000-yard campaign. The defense is also oh-so-close to getting Chase Young back, though the team has been cautious with the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. They're kind of stuck in limbo on those decisions — do you plug him back into the lineup to ensure you make the playoffs, or focus on making sure he's healthy when you get there? — but so far they seem to have played it correctly. Brian Robinson's also been coming on, grinding out 344 rushing yards over the four-game undefeated streak, but his 4.3 YPC still has him pegged as a volume guy, not a difference-maker.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (IR, knee), TE Daniel Bellinger (questionable, ribs)
WAS injuries: RB J.D. McKissic (IR, neck)

NYG DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: Robinson $5,400 DK / $7,000 FD and Antonio Gibson $5,000 DK / $6,300 FD (NYG 31st in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), Logan Thomas $2,900 DK / $4,800 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

NYG DFS fades: Bellinger $3,200 DK / $4,700 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. TE)
WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS t-26th in third-down conversions at 35.6 percent; NYG seventh in third-down defense at 36.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4-1 NYG, average score 22-20 NYG, average margin of victory nine points. NYG had won three straight games at FedEx Field prior to WAS's 30-29 victory in Week 2 of last season. WAS is 2-0-1 in the last three meetings

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop: Barkley rebounds for 100 combined yards and a TD. Jones throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Darius Slayton. Robinson gains 70 yards and a score, while Gibson adds 50 yards. Heinicke throws for 220 yards and a TD to Thomas while running in another, but his late attempt at a game-winning drive comes up short. Giants 23-21

Indianapolis (+4) at Minnesota, 48.5 o/u – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

Three consecutive losses ended that Jeff Saturday honeymoon in a hurry, didn't it? I can't really blame him for the current state of the Colts; he was put in an impossible situation, and Jim Irsay threw him to the wolves by not surrounding him with experienced coordinators and assistants. In a different situation, maybe Saturday being the motivator-in-chief could have worked and turned the team's season around. As it is, the Colts are headed for a likely top-10 draft pick, and maybe a new franchise QB depending on who's left on the board when the Colts are on the clock. Matt Ryan's hold on a starting job is again slipping after he committed four turnovers against the Cowboys before Indy's bye, but that brutal 54-19 loss was a true team effort — Ryan didn't personally give up all five of those fourth-quarter TDs. Jonathan Taylor was on a roll before the bye, compiling 458 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns over the last four games, but he can only do so much. Technically, the Colts can still win the AFC South — they're only three games back of the Titans with four to play — but with Tennessee having swept the season series, they'd need to win out and have the Titans lose four straight, plus have the Jags struggle too, to pull it off. Never say never in Chaos Season, but the Colts can't afford any more stumbles.

The Vikings missed their first chance to wrap up the NFC North last week when they lost to the Lions, but there will be plenty more clinching opportunities the rest of the way. Kirk Cousins threw for a season-high 425 yards, and the last four games he has a 69.1 percent completion rate and a 6:1 TD:INT. Justin Jefferson, of course, has been on the other end of a lot of that production, including 223 yards last week and 440 in that four-game stretch. That surge has put him at an even 1,500 yards for the year, tops in the league, and along with Tyreek Hill there are suddenly two wideouts taking aim at Calvin Johnson's single-season record of 1,964, or even becoming the first to reach 2,000. (To be honest, I don't like either guy's chances given their remaining schedules — Jefferson wraps up his season with potential bad-weather games in Green Bay and Chicago, while Tyreek has to face the Bills, Patriots and Jets defenses, two of them outdoors and on the road.) Dalvin Cook could probably use some momentum ahead of the playoffs too, as over those last four games he has only 247 scrimmage yards.

The Skinny

IND injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

IND DFS targets: Ryan $5,200 DK / $6,700 FD (MIN 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed)
MIN DFS targets: Vikings DST $3,300 DK / $3,900 FD (IND t-31st in sacks allowed, 32nd in giveaways)

IND DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: K.J. Osborn $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD (IND third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: MIN 10th in red-zone conversions at 60.4 percent; IND 29th in red-zone defense at 63.9 percent

The Scoop: Taylor dashes for 110 yards and a score. Ryan throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Michael Pittman (who tops 100 yards) and Parris Campbell, but he gets picked off twice. Cook responds with 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 250 yards and two scores, one each to Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Vikings 27-21

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cleveland, 37 o/u – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The good news for the Ravens is that they still perch atop the AFC North, and they won the first meeting with the Bengals to at least for now give them the tiebreaker edge. The bad news is their third-string QB is an undrafted rookie out of Oregon named Anthony Brown, a reality they were forced to confront when Tyler Huntley got knocked out of last week's game with a concussion after he got the start in place of a limping Lamar Jackson. They still snuck by the Steelers (and should probably send Mitch Trubisky a Christmas card or something as a thank-you), but over the last two games Baltimore has scored only 26 points, and won both due to the other teams (Denver and Pittsburgh, two of the most inept offenses in the league) only scoring 23. To say they have no margin for error isn't even really accurate — they have a negative margin of error, in that the team is only going to win if the other guys make a bunch of errors. (Hi again Mitch!) Huntley at least cleared the concussion protocols late this week and should start, and J.K. Dobbins' return to form provides the offense with a solid floor, but they're going to need to get Jackson back under center if they're going to pose any kind of postseason threat.

Deshaun Watson's tenure in Cleveland hasn't exactly gone swimmingly, but hey, Napoleon's return from exile hit some snags too. Watson did look a little less rusty last week and tossed his first TD pass as a Brown, with David Njoku doing the honors, but for now this is still Nick Chubb's offense. He could use some help, though — he's only scored in one of the last four games despite managing 333 scrimmage yards. The defense has come around to some extent, but it's still a top-heavy unit that always seems one injury to Myles Garrett or Denzel Ward away from disaster. The last time Watson got a taste of Lake Erie weather came in Week 10 of the 2020 season, and he passed for 163 yards with a 5.4 YPA in a 10-7 loss for the Texans. The wind won't be quite as bad this time around, but it still won't be pleasant conditions for a game.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, knee), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, foot)
CLE injuries: WR David Bell (questionable, thumb), TE Njoku (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: Dobbins $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (CLE 30th in rushing DVOA), Devin Duvernay $4,300 DK / $5,400 FD (CLE 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
CLE DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: Chubb $7,400 DK / $7,800 FD (BAL second in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

Key stat: CLE 22nd in third-down conversions at 37.9 percent; BAL second in third-down defense at 32.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 BAL, average score 26-19 BAL, average margin of victory 10 points. BAL has won five of the last six meetings, with an average score of 30-20 during that stretch

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 15 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Dobbins gains 110 yards and a score. Huntley throws for less than 200 yards and runs in a touchdown of his own. Chubb cranks out 130 yards and a TD. Watson also throws for less than 200 yards. Ravens 14-13

Miami (+7.5) at Buffalo, o/u 42 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

This is probably the last hurrah for the Dolphins' chances of winning the AFC East. They're two games back of the Bills, and a loss puts them three back with three to play. Sure, Miami won the first meeting this season, but letting your opponent out-gain you 497 yards to 212, out-first down you 31 to 15 and run 92 plays to your 43 doesn't exactly seem like a repeatably winning formula. Tua Tagovailoa's been mostly great this season, but last week didn't fall in the "mostly" range, as his 145 passing yards was his lowest mark for a game he didn't get knocked out of. By a wide margin, too — his next-worst performance was 261 yards. He's failed to reach a 60 percent completion rate in consecutive games, and while struggling against the 49ers can be forgiven, last week's dud came against the Chargers. Tyreek Hill hasn't suffered, piling up 227 yards and two TDs in those two games, but Jaylen Waddle scraped together a 3-40-0 line. If Tua continues to crash back to earth, the Dolphins won't just miss out on a division title, they risk falling out of the playoff picture entirely. An 8-5 record seems pretty safe, but it's good for only the No. 6 seed, and there are three 7-6 teams clawing for the No. 7 spot — two AFC East rivals in the Pats and Jets, and that pesky Bolts team to which they just lost.

The Bills can lock up a playoff spot with a win, as well as stay ahead of Kansas City for that coveted first-round postseason bye. Buffalo's won four straight since that stunning OT loss to the Vikings, but all three of their losses in 2022 carry a kind of phantasmagoric quality, like you dreamed them and they didn't really happen. Josh Allen's passing numbers continue to lag — he hasn't reached a 7.5 YPA in four straight — but his 6:1 TD:INT, with a couple rushing TDs included for good measure, over that stretch is still pretty good. Tre'Davious White's return to the lineup seems to have steadied the whole defense, and were it not for a special-teams safety by the Jets last week, the unit would have held consecutive opponents to 10 points. Right this second, Buffalo doesn't quite feel like the best team in the NFL, but if it runs the table (which would include a win in Cincinnati in Week 17) that perception could easily come back around.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (questionable, hip)
BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

MIA DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Dawson Knox $3,900 DK / $5,300 FD (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

MIA DFS fades: Raheem Mostert $5,300 DK / $6,200 FD (BUF third in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF second in third-down conversions at 48.7 percent; MIA t-24th in third-down defense at 42.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 BUF, average score 31-18 BUF, average margin of victory 14 points. BUF had won seven straight meetings by an average score of 37-17 prior to MIA's 21-19 victory in Week 3

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-20s, 9-10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 70 yards. Tua throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) twice and Cedrick Wilson once. Devin Singletary collects 80 yards and a score. Allen throws a pick-six to Xavien Howard to keep things close but makes up for it with 300 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Knox and Stefon Diggs, while also running for 50 yards and a TD. Bills 31-28

San Francisco at Seattle (+3), 43 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Of course the Chaos Season would see the rise of the greatest Mr. Irrelevant in league history. Brock Purdy has looked like a keeper in his first two NFL games, completing 70.7 percent of his passes with a 4:1 TD:INT, and he played through an oblique injury most of last week too. The Niners are more than capable of winning with a bus driver at QB, but it's possible Purdy might prove to be even more than that, which should make it a lot easier for the team to wave goodbye to Jimmy Garoppolo in the offseason. The offense now primarily flows through Christian McCaffrey, who has piled up 299 scrimmage yards and three TDs in Purdy's two outings, and a defense that has given up only 10.7 points a game in a six-game winning streak doesn't require much support. Deebo Samuel's absence is an issue, especially if Purdy can't go and they're forced to turn to Josh Johnson under center, but Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle still give San Francisco some dangerous downfield options in the event they need to play catch-up. The Niners are two games clear of the Seahawks in the NFC West coming into this one, so if they can sweep the season series, they have the title clinched.

Seattle's headed in the opposite direction, dropping three of its last four as the defense falls apart. The Seahawks have coughed up 31 points a game in three contests since their bye, and it's not like they were facing dominant opposition in Derek Carr, John Wolford and Sam Darnold, though it would be more accurate to say it's Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers and the duo of D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard that have left their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Seattle allowed 437 rushing yards and five TDs on the ground to that group, and now they have to find a way to contain CMac? Yikes. Geno Smith's started to show the strain of carrying this team, tossing four INTs in those three games along with his eight TDs, but he still leads the league in completion percentage at 71.5 and is behind only Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in YPA, and behind only Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in passing touchdowns. Smith's got an MVP-caliber resume, but he might have to settle for Comeback Player of the Year instead due to his supporting cast. He will get Kenneth Walker back this week, but against the Niners' elite run defense, it'll probably be all on Smith's shoulders again.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Purdy (questionable, oblique), QB Garoppolo (out, foot), QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR, knee), WR Deebo Samuel (out, knee)
SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (IR, ankle)

SF DFS targets: McCaffrey $11,400 DK / $17,500 FD (SEA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jauan Jennings $3,600 DK / (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
SEA DFS targets: Marquise Goodwin $6,400 DK / $8,000 FD (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: Ray-Ray McCloud $1,200 DK / $7,500 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)
SEA DFS fades: Walker $7,600 DK / $12,500 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)

Key stat: SEA eighth in third-down conversions at 43.2 percent; SF 12th in third-down defense at 38.4 percent 

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 SEA, average score 25-21 SEA, average margin of victory nine points. SF has lost two straight meetings and 10 of the last 11 at Lumen Field

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s

The Scoop: McCaffrey racks up 140 combined yards and two touchdowns. Purdy plays and throws for less than 200 yards with a score to Kittle. Walker manages 50 yards. Smith throws for 290 yards and three TDs, finding DK Metcalf twice and Tyler Lockett once. Seahawks 27-21

Last week's record: 7-6, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 112-94-2, 92-110-6 ATS, 107-100-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1400-863-9, 1097-1102-73 ATS, 842-887-3114.9 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)