NFL Game Previews: Monday Night Matchups

MONDAY NIGHT

New Orleans at Carolina (+3), o/u 40 – Monday, 7:15 p.m. EDT

Full disclosure: my brand new little jury-rigged algorithm for determining final scores spat out exactly 20.0-20.0 on this one (and note the line on the over/under!), and I was sorely tempted to simply roll with the tie. That wouldn't really be in keeping with the spirit of this thing, though. The Saints escaped a scare at home in their opener, with Derek Carr looking solid in his debut for the team – which is more than New Orleans got at quarterback in 2022 – and the defense still looks like an under-the-radar unit that may add some turnover punch this season, which could take Dennis Allen's bunch to elite status after they were fifth in sacks and 10th in points per game allowed last season. The Saints are rightly viewed as the favorites to win the NFC South, and I'm not sure the Falcons should be as close as they are in the current odds.

The Panthers are the biggest underdog to win the division, and that's pretty reasonable. Bryce Young looked very much like a rookie in his NFL debut, and the front seven couldn't slow down Atlanta on the ground. Even if Young picks things up quickly, he doesn't have any top options to throw to, just a bunch of solid citizens. The defense should be better though, given the talent on the roster and coordinator Ejiro Evero's reputation. Frank Reich's clearly going with the "shelter the kid QB with a stingy defense and reliable running game" plan, and while it may not result in many wins, it could set Carolina up to be competitive in 2024.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Alvin Kamara (out, suspension), RB Kendre Miller (questionable, hamstring)
CAR injuries: WR DJ Chark (questionable, hamstring)

NO DFS targets: none
CAR DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Hayden Hurst $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (NO first in receptions allowed, first in receiving yards allowed, t-3rd in TDs allowed to TE in 2022)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NO, average score 21-18 NO, average margin of victory 12 points. CAR has won three of the last four meetings, and NO hasn't scored more than 18 points in any of those games
Key stat: CAR was 30th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 31.7 percent; NO was t-24th in third-down defense at 41.6 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jamaal Williams bangs out 60 yards and a TD. Carr throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. Miles Sanders picks up 80 yards and a score. Young throws for 220 yards and a TD to Adam Thielen but gets sacked five times. Saints 21-20

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (+2.5), o/u 39.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Browns' defense looked very, very good in dismantling Joe Burrow and the Bengals, no matter how much you want to attribute some of that performance to the weather or Burrow's rust. While Myles Garrett and company only recorded two sacks, they racked up 10 QB hits and held the Cincy signal-called under 100 passing yards. Nick Chubb also served notice that this might finally be the season he wins a rushing crown. As for Deshaun Watson... well, he ran in a touchdown. The same bad-weather excuse Burrow gets also applies to Watson, of course, but after his rough return in 2022, last week's passing numbers weren't encouraging. If he can't rediscover his Houston form, Cleveland could find itself in much the same boat as the Jets in the AFC with a roster that has all the pieces it needs, except the most important one.

A lot of people got very excited about Kenny Pickett this preseason, and I couldn't figure out why. It's not just that his exhibition numbers weren't being taken with the appropriate (in my mind) amount of salt, it's that he had a really tough schedule to begin the campaign, facing the 49ers last week, the Browns this week, and even the Texans and Ravens in Weeks 4-5. Even if Pickett has made significant progress, it probably won't start showing up until after Pittsburgh's bye. The offense around him also lacks upside beyond George Pickens' big-play ability. I fully expect the Steelers to be in the playoff picture in December, because they almost always are, but it'll be because of the defense and the team's ability to grind out close victories, not because Pickett is suddenly doing his best Trevor Lawrence impression. If he becomes something close to Jimmy Garoppolo, Pittsburgh should consider it a win.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
PIT injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (doubtful, hamstring), TE Pat Freiermuth (questionable, chest), DE Cameron Heyward (out, groin)

CLE DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: Chubb $8,100 DK / $8,200 FD (PIT fifth in rushing DVOA, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed in 2022)
PIT DFS fades: Pickett $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (CLE fifth in passing yards per game allowed, t-5th in passing TDs allowed in 2022)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-4-1 PIT, average score 24-20 PIT, average margin of victory 11 points. CLE has not won a regular-season game at Acrisure Stadium since 2003, but did win 48-37 as the visitors in the 2020 Wild Card Round
Key stat: PIT was t-23rd in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 51.9 percent; CLE was 16th in red-zone defense at 55.2 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 10-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb churns out 80 yards and a touchdown. Watson throws for 230 yards and a score to Amari Cooper. Najee Harris manages 60 yards and a TD. Pickett throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but does find Pickens for a touchdown. Browns 23-17

EARLY SUNDAY

Green Bay at Atlanta (+1), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Love, exciting and new! Come aboard, Packers fans, we're expecting you. Jordan Love wasn't flawless in his first start as The Guy, but three passing TDs when his apparent top target, Christian Watson, wasn't even on the field is pretty impressive. The 2020 first-round pick seems comfortable in Matt LaFleur's offense (I mean, he should at this point), and in a league that's increasingly fixated on throwing young signal-callers into the fire as quickly as possible, it's nice to see at least one franchise still has the patience to let a QB marinate. There's still plenty of talent on the rest of the roster too, and it's easy to forget after last year's mess, but this team won three consecutive NFC North titles prior to 2022. Maybe let's not hand the division to the Lions just yet.

Arthur Smith's Falcons steamrolled the Panthers last week, and did it while giving Kyle Pitts and Drake London a combined four targets, and having Tyler Allgeier handle the rock more often than Bijan Robinson. Imagine what this team might look like if it had used those first-round picks on, say, Patrick Surtain, Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter instead. I will grant you that not having a real quarterback makes it tough to get the most out of Pitts and London, and they weren't really in a position to land one of the QBs in those classes that look like the real deal at this point, but Desmond Ridder isn't going to get better by not throwing the ball. The NFC South is pretty winnable, and Atlanta is just as likely to be the playoff team from the group as anyone else, but the disconnect between the team's drafting philosophy and coaching philosophy is incredibly stark. If Smith wants to replicate what he did in Tennessee, the Falcons shouldn't be wasting premium draft capital on players who don't fit. There's an alternate timeline where Pitts has Mike McDaniel scheming him open, and London is the big-bodied yang to Amon-Ra St. Brown's yin in Detroit, and both of them are coming off 100-yard games to begin the season.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Watson (questionable, hamstring), WR Romeo Doubs (questionable, hamstring), LB Quay Walker (questionable, concussion)
ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

GB DFS targets: Love $5,500 DK / $7,200 FD (ATL 31st in passing DVOA, 25th in passing yards per game allowed in 2022)
ATL DFS targets: Robinson $7,900 DK / $8,100 FD and Tyler Allgeier $5,500 DK / $7,100 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed in 2022)

GB DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Kyle Pitts $4,200 DK / $5,700 FD (GB t-2nd in receptions allowed, second in receiving yards allowed to TE in 2022)

Key stat: GB was 17th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 39.5 percent; ATL was 31st in third-down defense at 45.9 percent

The Scoop: Jones plays and gains 50 yards, but AJ Dillon leads the GB backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Love throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. Robinson racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown, while Allgeier adds 70 yards and a TD. Ridder throws for less than 200 yards but again avoid mistakes. Packers 27-23

Las Vegas (+9.5) at Buffalo, o/u 47 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Jimmy Garoppolo looked like his usual self in his Raiders debut, posting efficient (if not super-fantasy friendly) numbers and emerging from the game with a lower-body injury. His ankle issue doesn't seem to be serious, but if the weather ends up being bad east of the Mississippi again this weekend, well, he hasn't played a full season since 2019 for a reason. Josh Jacobs, on the other hand, looked like a guy who skipped training camp. Vegas doesn't have a lot of weapons it can rely on, so if Jacobs is slow out of the gate, Josh McDaniels will have his work cut out for him producing points. Did I mention surprise Week 1 star Jakobi Meyers is also in the concussion protocols? This might be one of those "let's see what Davante Adams can do in triple coverage" kind of games. Oh, wait, Adams is on the injury report too. Yikes.

The good news for the Bills is that they aren't facing the Jets defense this week. Josh Allen hadn't thrown three INTs in a game since 2021, but even with his gaffes, Buffalo was still in position to win until the special teams unit decided not to show up for OT. Really, there wasn't too much to get worried about from that loss. Youngsters James Cook and Dalton Kincaid showed flashes of their talent against a tough divisional opponent, and the Bills' defense was stingy against everybody except Breece Hall. The version of Jacobs we saw in Week 1 looked a lot more like Monday's Dalvin Cook, so this one shouldn't be close.

The Skinny

LV injuries: QB Garoppolo (questionable, ankle), WR Adams (questionable, foot), WR Meyers (questionable, concussion)
BUF injuries: EDGE Von Miller (PUP, knee)

LV DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Cook $6,100 DK / $6,600 FD (LV t-25th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in receptions allowed and 32nd in receiving yards allowed to RB in 2022)

LV DFS fades: Austin Hooper $2,800 DK / $4,600 FD (BUF fourth in receiving yards allowed, first in TDs allowed to TE in 2022), Raiders DST $2,200 DK / $3,000 FD (32nd in takeaways, 30th in sacks in 2022)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV was t-26th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 47.9 percent; BUF was second in red-zone defense at 44.9 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacobs churns out 60 yards and a score. Garoppolo throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Adams and Jakob Johnson. Cook gains 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 280 yards and a second score to Diggs (who tops 100 yards again) while running in a touchdown of his own. Bills 34-24

Baltimore (+3.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

J.K. Dobbins suffering another season-ending injury is brutal, and could spell the end of his Ravens' tenure. Even if he makes a full recovery, he's a free agent in the offseason. Maybe they offer him a bargain, incentive-laden contract to come back, but Baltimore seems just as likely to look at next year's draft or sign a more reliable backfield option. Really, Dobbins' career could end up being a fascinating set of what-ifs. If he stays healthy and has been cranking out 1,200-yard seasons the last couple years, do the Ravens even feel the need to move on from Greg Roman's run-focused offense? Would he and the Baltimore front office have found a path to a contract extension that would have become a template for other RBs around the league? I'm not sure why this week's article has become the Sliding Doors edition, but here we are. In this reality though, Zay Flowers was the only one to benefit from Todd Monken's scheme in Week 1. It could take some time for the muscle memory in Lamar Jackson's arm to wake up, but if Flowers is the real deal, this could become a very intriguing passing attack once Mark Andrews is healthy and Rashod Bateman has shaken off the rust. It might need to be, if the injuries keep piling up in the secondary.

Speaking of shaking off rust ... last week's disaster for the Bengals might have been due to Joe Burrow's lack of preseason action, or perhaps the crappy playing conditions in Cleveland were the biggest factor, or maybe Myles Garrett and the Browns' defense deserve more credit than they're getting. For now, I'm giving the Cincy offense a mulligan — I mean, Tee Higgins seeing eight targets and getting zero catches isn't something that's likely to be repeated any time soon. (In case, like me, you were wondering, the NFL record for targets without a catch is 10, set by Bengals legend Chad Ochocinco Johnson in 2002 and tied by the Dolphins' Chris Chambers in 2006.) Until last week, a Burrow offense hadn't been held to less than 13 points since he was a rookie in 2020, when the Ravens did it in Week 5. Hmm.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Dobbins (IR, Achilles), TE Andrews (questionable, quadriceps), CB Marlon Humphrey (questionable, foot)
CIN injuries: LB Logan Wilson (questionable, ankle)

BAL DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Jackson $7,700 DK / $7,600 FD (CIN t-3rd in passing TDs allowed, third in rushing yards allowed to QB in 2022)
CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $6,500 DK / $7,200 FD (BAL third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed in 2022)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-5 BAL, average score 25-22 BAL, average margin of victory 16 points. CIN has won three straight meetings at Paycor Stadium, including a 24-17 victory in the Wild Card Round last season
Key stat: BAL was t-29th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 45.8 percent; CIN was t-9th in red-zone defense at 52.0 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gus Edwards leads the BAL backfield with 70 yards and a score. Jackson throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Flowers. Mixon grinds out 60 yards. Burrow throws for 300 yards and three TDs, two to Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Higgins, but he also throws a pick-six to Brandon Stephens to keep things close. Bengals 27-21

Seattle (+5.5) at Detroit, o/u 47 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

At least the Bengals have some excuses for their opening-week dud. The Seahawks just didn't show up after halftime. Geno Smith's performance was the biggest head-scratcher, especially against a Rams defense that's basically just Aaron Donald surrounded by some guys. Seattle's O-line hung Smith out to dry, though, perhaps not a surprising outcome after starting tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas left with injuries. With Lucas now on IR, the Seahawks might want to lean a lot more heavily on Kenneth Walker and the ground game the next couple weeks until Smith's protection is back at full strength.

The Lions walked into the, err, lion's den for the season opener last Thursday and stole a win from the defending champs, which isn't going to do anything to make their bandwagon less crowded. David Montgomery stepped seamlessly into the Jamaal Williams role, while rookie Jahmyr Gibbs admirably filled D'Andre Swift's old "why isn't this guy getting more touches?" role. The defense came up big, though, and while Aidan Hutchinson and company weren't able to sack Patrick Mahomes, they made him uncomfortable with seven QB hits. If Detroit's going to romp in this one and really make a statement that they are in fact legit in 2023, it's the pass rush that will likely lead the way.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DET injuries: WR Jameson Williams (out, suspension)

SEA DFS targets: Smith $5,900 DK / $7,000 FD (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed and 31st in rushing TDs allowed to QB in 2022)
DET DFS targets: Montgomery $5,800 DK / $6,300 FD and Gibbs $6,300 DK / $5,800 FD (SEA 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-27th in rushing TDs allowed in 2022), Sam LaPorta $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (SEA 31st in receiving yards allowed, t-26th in TDs allowed to TE in 2022)

SEA DFS fades: Seahawks DST $2,900 DK / $3,300 FD (DET first in giveaways, second in sacks allowed in 2022)
DET DFS fades: Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800 DK / $8,100 FD (SEA fourth in receptions allowed, second in receiving yards allowed to WR in 2022)

Key stat: DET was fourth in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 66.2 percent; SEA was t-24th in red-zone defense at 59.6 percent

The Scoop: Walker collects 80 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 240 yards and a score to Tyler Lockett but gets sacked four times and picked off twice. Montgomery grinds out 70 yards and a touchdown, but Gibbs breaks out with 100 scrimmage yards and two receiving TDs. Jared Goff throws for 230 yards and a third score to LaPorta. Lions 34-20

Indianapolis at Houston (+1), o/u 40 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The first battle between 2023 first-round QBs pits fourth overall Anthony Richardson against second overall C.J. Stroud. (First overall pick Bryce Young, way over in the NFC South, will still get to face each of them this season, and back-to-back in Weeks 7-8. If there's one thing the NFL does right consistently, it's scheduling.) Richardson looks better than I was expecting in his debut, but he still had a number of poor throws and really needs to learn to avoid contact rather than trying to plow through NFL defenders. His combine showing got him labeled a unicorn, but at least at first glance, he reminded me a fair bit of Daunte Culpepper, which is still pretty high praise. The Colts should also have Zack Moss available in the backfield, who'll be an upgrade on Deon Jackson but still a massive downgrade from Jonathan Taylor. Maybe Jim Irsay should focus less on his music career and more on figuring out why his star players keep wanting out of Indy.

Stroud's first exposure to the NFL was also a mixed bag, but a game against the Baltimore defense is a tough way to start a career. Nico Collins' preseason sleeper status got confirmed as he was clearly Stroud's top target, but nothing much else went right for the Houston offense. DeMeco Ryans' defense produced four sacks, including one from Will Anderson, and two turnovers, though, and whatever success the Texans have this season should come on that side of the ball. The unit did a good job containing Lamar Jackson, and the talent is there for Houston to make life fairly miserable for Richardson. The inverse could also be true too, at least as long as Stroud is working behind an offensive line that's already down to a third-string center and might be missing its top four tackles.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Taylor (PUP, ankle), RB Evan Hull (IR, knee)
HOU injuries: TE Dalton Schultz (questionable, thigh)

IND DFS targets: Moss $4,700 DK / $6,100 FD and Jackson $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed in 2022)
HOU DFS targets: Texans DST $3,600 DK / $3,400 FD (IND 32nd in giveaways, 31st in sacks allowed in 2022)

IND DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-3-1 IND, average score 27-18 IND, average margin of victory nine points. Since 2017, IND has gone 5-1-1 at NRG Stadium, including a 21-7 victory in the 2018 Wild Card Round
Key stat: IND was t-29th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 45.8 percent; HOU was 19th in red-zone defense at 56.4 percent

The Scoop: Moss leads the IND backfield with 60 yards. Richardson runs for 40 yards and throws for 200 and a TD to Kylen Granson, but he also loses a fumble that Anderson returns to the house. Dameon Pierce manages 50 yards. Stroud throws for less than 200 yards but hits Robert Woods for his first career touchdown. Texans 17-16

Kansas City at Jacksonville (+3), o/u 51 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Not having Travis Kelce available had a bigger impact than I expected last week, mainly because Patrick Mahomes felt some pressure and doesn't have a feel yet for where any of his receivers are going to be when things break down. That's the real secret to the success of that duo — when Mahomes is on the move, he and Kelce know how the other is going to react. The two-time MVP doesn't have that same connection with Kadarius Toney or Skyy Moore, at least not yet. Kansas City absolutely will figure it out, and Kelce could be back for this one anyway, so the points will start flowing again. At worst, I expect last week's loss to cost them home-field advantage for a game or two in the playoffs.

Then again, if the Jaguars also score an upset — and they are very capable of it — expect some panic in Kansas City. It took Trevor Lawrence a couple quarters to get going, but he looked like he belonged in the conversation with at least the likes of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in leading his squad to a comeback win. It was also great to see Calvin Ridley back and looking like he hadn't missed any time at all. I thought he was a bit over-hyped in the preseason simply due to that long layoff, but I'll happily take the L on that one if he's right back in his 2020 form. Those with Travis Etienne shares who are worried about how Tank Bigsby got used near the goal line should take solace in the rookie's fumble, but there will probably be enough production to go around for both. Bigsby may have looked good moving the pile, but he couldn't have done what Etienne did on his 26-yard TD run. Etienne's five targets also tied his season high from 2022, and if he sees a big volume increase through the air, he's likely headed for a very big campaign.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (questionable, illness), TE Kelce (questionable, knee)
JAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

KC DFS targets: Jerick McKinnon $4,600 DK / $5,100 FD (JAC 31st in receptions allowed, 31st in receiving yards allowed to RB in 2022)
JAC DFS targets: Etienne $6,900 DK / $8,200 FD (KC 32nd in receptions allowed, 29th in receiving yards allowed to RB in 2022)

KC DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC was second in third-down conversions in 2022 at 48.7 percent; JAC was 29th in third-down defense at 43.2 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 80s, 10 mph wind, 40-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while McKinnon adds 50 combined yards and a receiving score. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and two more TDs, hitting Kelce and Moore. Etienne piles up 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Ridley and Christian Kirk. Kansas City 31-24

Chicago (+3) at Tampa Bay, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I know it's only one game, but it sure doesn't look like that Year 3 breakout is coming for Justin Fields after he committed two turnovers and posted a 5.8 YPA in Week 1. Adding DJ Moore to the mix didn't make much of a difference, but that could just be a chemistry thing as Fields looked for Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney often enough. The backfield was also a bit of a mess, which probably bodes well for rookie Roschon Johnson in the long run if Khalil Herbert can't stake a strong early claim to the No. 1 job. The defense also made Jordan Love look like, well, you know, so Bears fans may just want to hope the team gets to Collapsing for Caleb as soon as possible rather than pretending to be semi-competitive.

The Bucs didn't look all that great in Week 1, but Baker Mayfield and the defense did just enough to get by the very beatable Vikings, and frankly their schedule this season features a lot of Very Beatable Opponents. I'm still not convinced Mayfield's anything but a placeholder ahead of the Kyle Trask Era, but if he keeps winning, it's going to be hard for Todd Bowles to justify that switch. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still among the best WR duos in the league, and Shaquil Barrett led the pass rush to nine QB hits last week. That's not a division-winning core anywhere but the NFC South, but fortunately, that's the division Tampa Bay is in.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TB injuries: WR Russell Gage (IR, knee)

CHI DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Rachaad White $5,500 DK / $6,200 FD (CHI 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2022)

CHI DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: Cade Otton $3,100 DK / $4,600 FD (CHI t-2nd in receptions allowed, third in receiving yards allowed to TE in 2022)

Key stat: TB was 21st in third-down conversions in 2022 at 37.4 percent; CHI was 32nd in third-down defense at 49.0 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 80s, 10-15 mph wind, 65-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Herbert rebounds for 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Fields throws for less than 200 yards but runs in a TD of his own. White gains 80 yards. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Godwin and Trey Palmer, and a Jamel Dean pick-six seals the deal. Buccaneers 24-17

L.A. Chargers at Tennessee (+3), o/u 45 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Nobody Chargers like the Chargers can Charger. Justin Herbert and company fired up 34 points last week against the Dolphins and still lost on a frankly ridiculous fade from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill that may have scraped some paint off Michael Davis' helmet, it was dropped into such a tight window. Weirdly, Herbert wasn't that involved in the offensive eruption. The Bolts' running game took center stage, with Joshua Kelley posting career-high numbers while still playing second fiddle to Austin Ekeler. It's the kind of thing we saw from Kellen Moore in Dallas with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, but while I have no problem seeing Ekeler in the Pollard role there, Kelley isn't even as good as 2023 Zeke, much less 2020 Zeke. Moore is very willing to take what the defense gives him (perhaps to a fault), so there should be weeks where the passing game leads the way instead — like, say, this one.

How long will Mike Vrabel stick with Ryan Tannehill? The Titans probably should have won last week in New Orleans, but it's tough to overcome a three-INT game from your QB. I guess the real question is, can Will Levis or Malik Willis show enough in practice to encourage Vrabel to make the switch? DeAndre Hopkins didn't seem to care who was under center in his Tennessee debut, but if Derrick Henry isn't topping five yards a carry and thundering for big gains on the regular, the points are going to have to come from somewhere.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RB Ekeler (questionable, ankle), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hamstring)
TEN injuries: WR Hopkins (questionable, ankle)

LAC DFS targets: Herbert $7,000 DK / $8,200 FD (TEN 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, t-28th in passing TDs allowed in 2022), Keenan Allen $7,100 DK / $7,800 FD and Mike Williams $5,700 DK / $6,700 FD (TEN 31st in receptions allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed, t-30th in receiving TDs allowed to WR in 2022), Gerald Everett $4,100 DK / $5,500 FD (TEN t-29th in receptions allowed, 32nd in receiving yards allowed to TE in 2022)
TEN DFS targets: none

LAC DFS fades: Ekeler $8,700 DK / $9,200 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed in 2022)
TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN was 32nd in score rate (drives ending in offensive scores) in 2022 at 27.9 percent; LAC were t-19th in score rate against at 37.2 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler gets held to 60 combined yards, and Kelley isn't a factor. Herbert throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Allen, Everett and Quentin Johnston. Henry bashes out 80 yards and a score. Tannehill throws for 210 yards and a TD to Hopkins. Chargers 27-20

LATE SUNDAY

N.Y. Giants at Arizona (+5.5), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Much like it's tough to tell after one week what the principal cause of Cincy's Week 1 train wreck was, you don't want to draw too many conclusions from the Giants' embarrassing showing against the Cowboys in their opener. Maybe the Dallas defense really is that good, or maybe the league's figured out Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones, or maybe it was just one of those nights in rainy conditions. Regardless, it's hard to feel too good about the New York offense right now. Think about this, though – in some ways, the Giants got lucky to only lose 40-0. I mean, they officially committed five fumbles and got four of them back, and the Cowboys took their foot off the gas in the second half. By all rights, Big Blue should rebound here against a far inferior opponent, but an offensive line that gave up seven sacks last week now faces a pass rush that brought Sam Howell down six times.

The Cardinals nearly screwed up their plans to draft Caleb Williams, as Jonathan Gannon had the defense amped up, but the offense's ineptitude eventually won out as Arizona failed to score a TD on that side of the ball. Joshua Dobbs looked very much like a quarterback dropped into a system at the last minute, and while James Conner's fantasy production wasn't terrible, Next Gen Stats had him keeping company with the likes of Deon Jackson in terms of Rush Yards Over Expected at minus-19. There is every chance this could be a historically bad unit, at least until Kyler Murray's back, but if the defense keeps playing like it has nothing to lose, Arizona could find itself in a lot of tight, low-scoring games decided in the fourth quarter. Those were Daboll's specialty in 2022, but if it turns out that success was more a product of luck than his masterful motivational skills, well...

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, knee), TE Darren Waller (questionable, hamstring), K Graham Gano (questionable, ankle)
ARI injuries: QB Murray (PUP, knee), RB Conner (questionable, calf)

NYG DFS targets: Saquon Barkley $8,000 DK / $8,800 FD (ARI t-27th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in receptions allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed and t-29th in receiving TDs allowed to RB in 2022), Waller $5,500 DK / $6,600 FD (ARI 32nd in receptions allowed, 32nd in TDs allowed to TE in 2022)
ARI DFS targets: Conner $6,200 DK / $6,400 FD (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed in 2022)

NYG DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI was 29th in net yards per play in 2022 at -0.71; NYG were 25th at -0.44

The Scoop: Barkley zips for 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Jones throws for 230 yards and a score to Waller. Conner grinds out 60 yards and a touchdown. Dobbs throws for under 200 yards but does find Marquise Brown for a TD. Budda Baker returns a Jones fumble to the house for what proves to be the winning score. Cardinals 21-20

San Francisco at L.A. Rams (+8), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

While a number of Super Bowl contenders showed some warts or outright lost in Week 1, the Niners looked like exactly the team everyone expected them to be, absolutely trouncing the Steelers in Pittsburgh and making an offense that had been preseason darlings look like they were still using second and third-stringers. Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk did most of the damage, but in future weeks it'll be Deebo Samuel's turn, or George Kittle's. Nick Bosa not quite ready for a full workload after his holdout? No problem, 2022 second-round pick Drake Jackson will go out and get three sacks instead. This team is deep, and fast, and talented, and kind of mean, and top seed in the NFC already looks like it will be decided either in Week 5 (when the Cowboys travel to San Francisco) or Week 13 (when the Niners host Philly.)

Unless the resurgent Rams can crash that party? Sean McVey's crew thrashed the Seahawks last week, and did it without Cooper Kupp and (on paper, anyway) without much help for Aaron Donald on defense. Rookie fifth-round pick Puka Nacua came from out of nowhere to haul in 10 passes for 119 yards in his NFL debut, and while you can dismiss that as a product of Kupp's absence if you want, I think if McVey and Matthew Stafford decide a player is worth targeting 15 times in a game, they must think he's pretty good. Kyren Williams also looks like a serious threat to Cam Akers' starting job in the backfield, and considering that Akers has seemed like he was hanging onto it by a thread anyway, he could be worth chucking some FAB bucks at too. I'm still not convinced the Rams are for real after last season's disaster, but if Stafford's healthy and they have some interesting kids to inject some life into the offense, they could be a tough out.

The Skinny

SF injuries: LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, groin)
LAR injuries: WR Kupp (IR, hamstring)

SF DFS targets: 49ers DST $4,100 DK / $5,000 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, LAR 30th in sacks allowed in 2022)
LAR DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Akers $5,700 DK / $5,900 FD and Williams $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed in 2022)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 8-3 SF, average score 25-22 SF, average margin of victory 12 points. SF has won eight straight regular-season meetings, but are 0-1 in playoff meetings during that stretch as LAR won 20-17 in the 2021 NFC Championship Game
Key stat: SF was sixth in third-down conversions in 2022 at 45.0 percent; LAR were 22nd in third-down defense at 40.4 percent

The Scoop: McCaffrey erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and a score. Purdy throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Kittle and Aiyuk. Akers leads the LAR backfield with 50 yards. Stafford throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Nacua and Van Jefferson but gets picked off twice. 49ers 30-20

N.Y. Jets (+9.5) at Dallas, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Four plays, and the Jets are right back where they started. Just... wow. Aaron Rodgers' injury doesn't ruin their season, mind you – this is still a top-shelf defense, and Breece Hall certainly looked to be all the way back Monday night – but having Zach Wilson under center puts a firm cap on the offense's upside, now matter how much veteran wisdom Rodgers has managed to impart to him. I've seen chatter that this could be the end of Rodgers too, given his age and the rehab that will be ahead of him from a torn Achilles, but does this really seem like the way he'll want to go out? Unless Wilson takes a massive step forward in 2023, I expect Rodgers will be leading the Jets in 2024.

I really don't want to read too much into the Cowboys' Week 1 dismantling of the Giants, largely because I was a lot more pessimistic about the Giants than most anyway, but it's hard to get swept up in that defensive performance. The pass rush looked unblockable, the secondary was cranking out turnovers, and even the special teams opened the scoring on a blocked FG that Noah Igbinoghene, who'd been with the team for about 20 seconds, returned for a TD. Dak Prescott didn't do much, but he didn't have to, and Tony Pollard looked like a stud when he had his number called. It won't be that easy for Dallas again this season, but Super Bowl teams have a tendency to humble an opponent or two along the way. Just saying.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Rodgers (IR, Achilles), RB Hall (questionable, knee)
DAL injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, knee)

NYJ DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Cowboys DST $4,000 DK / $4,500 FD (first in takeaways, t-3rd in sacks in 2022)

NYJ DFS fades: Jets DST $2,700 DK / $3,700 FD (29th in takeaways, DAL fourth in sacks allowed in 2022)
DAL DFS fades: Prescott $6,600 DK / $7,400 FD (NYJ second in passing yards per game allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed in 2022), CeeDee Lamb $7,700 DK / $7,600 FD and Cooks $5,200 DK / $6,000 FD (NYJ first in receptions allowed, first in receiving yards allowed, third in receiving TDs allowed to WR in 2022)

Key stat: DAL was first in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 71.4 percent; NYJ were fourth in red-zone defense at 47.8 percent

The Scoop: Hall leads the NYJ backfield with 90 combined yards, while Dalvin Cook adds 40. Wilson throws for 200 yards and a TD to Garrett Wilson but gets picked off twice. Pollard also gains 90 scrimmage yards with a score. Prescott throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Jake Ferguson and Michael Gallup. Cowboys 30-13

Washington (+3.5) at Denver, o/u 38 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I don't think Sam Howell has a widely accepted nickname yet, but he will soon if he keeps stealing wins. His fourth-quarter TD run last week saved the Commanders from embarrassment on home turf against what was supposed to be the worst team in the league, but this still looked like the same disjointed offense it had been prior to Eric Bieniemy's arrival. Ron Rivera benched Antonio Gibson after an early fumble, Brian Robinson barely averaged three yards a carry, the offensive line was a sieve and Terry McLaurin wasn't healthy enough to make an impact. The pieces are here, at least in the passing game, for Washington to take a step up, but for now the team still needs to rely on its defense to keep things close enough for stuff like this to happen.

The Broncos also looked a lot like last year's inept squad in Sean Payton's Denver debut, only they came out on the losing end. I did appreciate Payton's willingness to embrace chaos by starting the game with an onside kick, but considering it led to a Raiders touchdown in what ended up being a one-point loss, maybe he should have kept that one in his back pocket for a bit. The coach largely stuck to the offensive philosophy he used at the tail end of Drew Brees' career, and Russell Wilson leaned on his tight ends and running backs for short, high-percentage passes rather than launching it deep, but that could change once Jerry Jeudy is healthy. The key to Denver's fortunes is likely to be Javonte Williams, who showed flashes in his return from last year's serious knee injury but ultimately posted fairly pedestrian numbers and got out-gained by Samaje Perine. If Williams gets stronger as the year progresses, the offense could get into a rhythm, but a defense which couldn't register a single sack against Jimmy Garoppolo last week may not provide a lot of help.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, hip), DE Chase Young (questionable, neck)
DEN injuries: WR Jeudy (questionable, hamstring), TE Greg Dulcich (doubtful, hamstring) 

WAS DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: McLaurin $5,700 DK / $6,400 FD and Jahan Dotson $4,900 DK / $6,100 FD (DEN third in receiving yards allowed, second in receiving TDs allowed to WR in 2022)
DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN was 32nd in third-down conversions in 2022 at 29.1 percent; WAS was first in third-down defense at 31.9 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 80s, 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards. Howell throws for 220 yards and a TD to Logan Thomas. Javonte puts together 70 yards and a touchdown, while Perine adds 50 combined yards. Wilson throws for 240 yards and a score to Courtland Sutton, but another missed FG by Wil Lutz and a safety by Jonathan Allen make the difference. Commanders 18-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Miami at New England (+2.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I keep waiting for some defensive coordinator to solve Mike McDaniel's offense, but there may not be anything to solve, as it mostly seems to be based on his guys being faster than the other team's guys. Tyreek Hill said this offseason he was aiming for 2,000 yards, and he's already over 10 percent of the way there after he burned the Chargers' secondary repeatedly last week. Not that Miami needs more options on offense, but De'Von Achane (who ran a 4.32 in the 40 at the combine) could be ready for his NFL debut too. The defense seems more worried about making splash plays and getting the ball back in Tua Tagovailoa's hands than anything else, but when your offense is this explosive, that's not the worst idea. If Tua can stay healthy, the Kansas City offense has a genuine challenger at the top of the heap in the AFC.

The Patriots came close to pulling off an upset last week, but that seemed to owe a lot more to the Eagles playing down to their level than New England turning back the clock to its glory days. Mac Jones did look sharp now that he has actual coaching support around him, but Bill Belichick presumably doesn't want him throwing the ball 54 times a game. He may not have a lot of choice, though. The running game got nowhere behind a patchwork offensive line, with Ezekiel Elliot having the longest carry of the day for the team at a whopping 11 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson did make his mark through the air, as did Kendrick Bourne, but I'm still having a hard time seeing what this team does well, or is even designed to excel at even if it's not quite working yet. The current Pats seem like a team intended to maybe squeak into a wild-card spot with some luck, not one built for sustainable success.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, knee), RB Jeff Wilson (IR, abdomen), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, oblique)
NE injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, knee), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR, shoulder)

MIA DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: Patriots DST $2,800 DK / $3,500 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, t-3rd in sacks in 2022)

MIA DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 MIA, average score 24-19 NE, average margin of victory 12 points. The average score over the last seven meetings has been 22-18 MIA, and NE hasn't scored more than 24 points in any game during that stretch
Key stat: MIA was 10th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 60.0 percent; NE was 22md in red-zone defense at 58.0 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Achane leads the MIA backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score in his debut. Tagovailoa throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards), Braxton Berrios and Durham Smythe. Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 70 yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Jones throws for 260 yards and a second score to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Dolphins 28-24

THURSDAY NIGHT

Minnesota (+7.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 49
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Vikings probably used up a few years' worth of good luck in 2022, so it shouldn't have been a big surprise they dropped a one-score game to the Bucs in their opener. Kirk Cousins committing three turnovers didn't help, but 344 passing yards and two TDs went a long way for those with fantasy shares in him. Also props to the Minnesota defense for holding an opponent to 20 points or less, something it only did four times last season, but stifling Baker Mayfield isn't the most amazing feat. This should still be a team that only wins when Cousins, Justin Jefferson and the supporting cast can out-sling the opposition, and an upcoming schedule facing Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes over the next month will make that a very tall task. At least in this one, Cousins won't have James Bradberry to worry about.

Philly should have put Bill Belichick's crew away fairly easily last week after going up 16-0 in the first quarter, but they let the Pats creep back into the game and needed the refs to bail them out on replay to end a possible game-winning drive by Mac Jones. That's not exactly what you want to see from a contender, but a win's a win. Frankly, while the defense did its job — Darius Slay returned an INT for a touchdown, and the pass rush generated seven QB hits on Jones — the offense seemed discombobulated. Hurts didn't do a whole lot, Kenneth Gainwell somehow paced the backfield, and Dallas Goedert was invisible. D'Andre Swift or Rashaad Penny should get their chance this week, though which one it is might be a coin flip. There's no real statistical evidence for a Super Bowl hangover, but expect the league's chattering classes to lean into that narrative if the Eagles look sluggish in this one too.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
PHI injuries: RB Gainwell (out, ribs)

MIN DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Hurts $7,800 DK / $8,800 FD (MIN 27th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing yards per game allowed in 2022), A.J. Brown $7,700 DK / $7,900 FD and DeVonta Smith $7,300 DK / $7,400 FD (MIN 32nd in receptions allowed, 32nd in receiving yards allowed to WR in 2022)

MIN DFS fades: Cousins $6,500 DK / $7,400 FD (PHI first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed in 2022)
PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI was third in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 67.8 percent; MIN was 21st in red-zone defense at 57.1 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 80s, 10-15 mph wind, 20-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alexander Mattison picks up 60 combined yards. Cousins throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson but getting picked off twice. Swift leads the PHI backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Hurts also runs in a TD while throwing for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Quez Watkins. Eagles 31-23

Last week's record: 9-7, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-5-1 o/u
2023 record: 9-7, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-5-1 o/u

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