NFL Game Previews: Chargers-Jets Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

L.A. Chargers at N.Y. Jets (+3), o/u 41.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Chargers managed to avoid Chargering it up last week, but a win over a team with an undrafted Division II rookie quarterback at the helm isn't exactly cause for celebration. Their season is still hanging by a thread – at 3-4 the Bolts are three wins back of Kansas City, and the wild-card picture could be awfully crowded in the AFC with only the Raiders, Broncos and Patriots looking like they're truly out of contention. (Heck, even Denver is only 3-5 and just beat its arch-nemesis. Stranger things have happened.) No one's ever doubted the talent on the Chargers roster, but it always seems to add up to less than the sum of its parts. Austin Ekeler got going last week, at least as a receiver, but since returning from his ankle injury he has just 101 rushing yards and a 2.3 YPC over three games. That's simply not going to get it done. Justin Herbert also looks to have figured out how to play through his fractured finger with minimal issues, but again, beating up on the Bears doesn't mean much. Aside from Khalil Mack's ridiculous six-sack game against the Raiders, the big names on the defensive haven't really made a big impact, and the Chargers may need the likes of Derwin James and Joey Bosa to, well, take charge in the second half of the season if they're going to keep playing past the first week of January.

Nobody deserved to win last week's hideous Battle of New Jersey – I fully expect Ken Burns to someday make a doc about those who were forced to endure that game from the stands, complete with sepia-toned photos and famous voices reading text messages to loved ones – but the Jets got the W and sit at 4-3. People who in theory should know more about playing football at the NFL level than me keep saying they see signs of progress in Zach Wilson, but I see a guy who has one touchdown pass in the last three games and who's managed to reach even a 60 percent completion rate just three times in seven appearances this year. The Jets still have a great defense (fourth in QB rating against, fifth in yards per play allowed, eighth in points per game allowed) and a Breece Hall, and that could well be enough to get them a wild-card spot, but it's hard to take them seriously as a contender in a stacked conference unless Wilson actually begins to string together good drives and games consistently, not just flash a play now and then that gives those rooting for him some hope.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Joshua Palmer (questionable, knee), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, ribs)
NYJ injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

LAC DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: Wilson $4,800 DK / $6,800 FD (LAC 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed)

LAC DFS fades: Palmer $5,100 DK / $6,000 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR1)
NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in third-down conversions at 23.0 percent; LAC are t-12th in third-down defense at 37.6 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 9-10 mph wind, 10-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler zips for 70 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Herbert throws for 250 yards and a second touchdown to Keenan Allen. Hall thunders for 90 yards and a score. Wilson throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Garrett Wilson but also tosses a back-breaking pick-six to James. Chargers 28-20

SUNDAY A.M.

Miami (+3) vs. Kansas City at Frankfurt, o/u 50.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST

After he didn't get to face Kansas City last season, Tyreek Hill's first crack at a revenge game will take place in Europe, setting the stage for a flood of "What's German for cheetah?" jokes that have already gotten old. (German for 'cheetah' is 'gepard'. It's 2023, guys. Google Translate is a thing. Settle down.) The Dolphins' offense topped 30 points for the fifth time in eight games last week, and with a Week 10 bye coming up and the best record in the AFC on the line, they should come out flying. Miami's defense added Jalen Ramsey last week (I nearly said "got him back", but then I remembered that was actually his debut for the team) but it's still not entirely clear how good the unit can be. In five games against teams with mediocre or worse offense, the Dolphins did fine, but in three games against the Chargers, Bills and Eagles they coughed up an average of 37.7 points and 400.7 scrimmage yards, which isn't ideal. Mike McDaniel's track team can keep up with anybody, but their chances of winning the Super Bowl would seem a lot brighter if they didn't have to once in a while against better competition.

I'm still not sure whether Patrick Mahomes got beat by the Broncos or by a flu bug last week, but either way the defending champs are 6-2, just like every other division leader in the AFC right now. Including playoffs, Mahomes had gone 35 straight games without failing to throw at least one TD heading into last week, the fifth-longest streak in league history. Drew Brees holds the record at 49, set between 2010 and 2012. The last time Kansas City had committed five giveaways in a game was 2018, in a 54-51 loss to the Rams that was the third-highest scoring game in NFL history. In that light, only giving up 24 points to Denver ain't so bad. Basically what I'm saying is that while their winning streak against Denver got snapped, it's not really a sign of anything other than the fates were agin Andy Reid's boys last week, and they're still going to run away with the division title as the rest of the AFC West slowly crashes and burns. In the meantime, K.C. gets the first of three potential AFC Championship Game previews in Frankfurt, with home games against the Bills and Bengals coming in Weeks 14 and 17, and that should keep them focused.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, ankle), TE Durham Smythe (questionable, ankle)
KC injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (questionable, groin)

MIA DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce $8,200 DK / $8,500 FD (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. TE), McKinnon $4,400 DK / $4,800 FD (MIA 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS fades: Tua Tagovailoa $7,800 DK / $8,300 FD (KC fourth in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed), Hill $9,400 DK / $10,000 FD (KC third in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 74.2 percent (23-for-31); KC is 15th in red-zone defense at 52.2 percent (12-for-23)

The Scoop: Mostert zips for 80 combined yards and a score, while Jeff Wilson also punches into the end zone. Tagovailoa throws for 280 yards and two TDs, one each to Hill and Jaylen Waddle (who tops 100 yards). Isiah Pacheco gains 70 yards. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, finding Kelce, McKinnon and Rashee Rice. Dolphins 34-27

EARLY SUNDAY

Minnesota (+5) at Atlanta, o/u 37 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Vikings have won three straight and four of five to claw their way back to .500... and their season is almost certainly over, with Kirk Cousins having suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Looking ahead, there might now be a clearer path for the pending free agent to return to Minnesota if his market gets suppressed by the injury, but the 35-year-old was playing some of the best football of his career when he went down – his 69.5 percent completion rate was his best mark since 2018, and he was on pace for a career-high 38 passing TDs – and someone might be willing to throw stupid money at him anyway. For the rest of 2023, the Vikings will try to get by with some combination of Joshua Dobbs (picked up from Arizona just as his usefulness to them was coming to an end), Nick Mullens (currently on IR with a back issue) and rookie fifth-round pick Jaren Hall, who should get the start in this one. At some point whoever is under center will be throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, so it's maybe premature to completely write off this offense, but the Vikings' upside at this point is probably as a team who can play spoiler against the likes of the Bengals or Lions when it comes to seeding.

The Falcons sit on top of the sad-sack NFC South at 4-4 by virtue of a 2-0 divisional record, but they haven't played the Saints yet (also 4-4, but 1-1 in the division) so it doesn't really mean much. Atlanta's also switching QBs this week, but voluntarily, as Desmond Ridder is giving way to Taylor Heinicke. As befits an organization that didn't bother to mention that Bijan Robinson was under the weather a couple weeks ago, it's not entirely clear what prompted the change to happen now. Ridder has been turnover-prone, sure, and he lost another fumble against the Titans before Heinicke took over after halftime, but coach Arthur Smith made vague suggestions that the second-year QB's health was the reason he didn't go back onto the field last Sunday or was getting the start in Week 9. It's all a little opaque, but Heinicke's 8.3 YPA in his first action of the season crushes Ridder's 7.1 mark on the year. Unfortunately for Heinicke, he won't have Drake London to throw to in his first start for Atlanta, leaving him with a receiving corps of Van Jefferson, KhaDarel Hodge, Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller – all players cast off by other teams within the last couple years. Basically, expect a big dose of Bijan and the running game, and maybe even Kyle Pitts too.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: QB Cousins (IR, Achilles), WR Jefferson (IR, hamstring), WR K.J. Osborn (questionable, chest), WR Brandon Powell (questionable, shoulder)
ATL injuries: WR London (out, groin)

MIN DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: Hodge $3,400 DK / $5,300 FD (MIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is 22nd in red-zone conversions at 47.8 percent (11-for-23, and that was with Cousins); ATL is fifth in red-zone defense at 42.1 percent (8-for-19)

The Scoop: Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers each manage 40 yards. Hall gets picked off twice and throws for under 200 yards but does find Addison for a TD. Robinson racks up 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Heinicke throws for 210 yards and a score to Miller. Falcons 20-16

Seattle (+5.5) at Baltimore, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Say hello to your NFC West leaders. The Seahawks have won five of their last six while the 49ers were busy losing three straight, and a defense that hadn't allowed more than 20 points in four straight contests or 400 scrimmage yards in five straight added Leonard Williams at the trade deadline. The offense didn't get any reinforcements though and hasn't topped 24 points or reached 400 yards in four straight either, so maybe those resources could have been better allocated. On the other hand, that run of success came against a bunch of off-brand QBs (Andy Dalton, Daniel Jones, Joshua Dobbs and PJ Walker), and their one loss in October came against a less than 100 percent Joe Burrow, so yeah, bolstering the defense ahead of a meeting with Lamar Jackson seems like a smart play. The offense should also pick it up at some point even if Geno Smith isn't quite able to recapture his 2022 form, as this is the deepest wideout group the franchise has had in a long time – when it's healthy, anyway. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both nursing issues, but that's just created more opportunities for rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba (the 20th overall pick out of Ohio State) and Jake Bobo (undrafted out of UCLA) to make an impact, and both youngsters have gotten into the end zone in each of the last two games.

The Ravens' three-game winning streak has given them a little bit of breathing room in the AFC North, and the offense's performance is starting to catch up to the defense's, which should be a scary proposition for their future opponents. Baltimore's piled up 69 points over the last two weeks, and done it different ways each time – against the Cards last week Gus Edwards romped for three TDs, but the week prior it was Lamar throwing for three (and running in two more) in a win over the Lions. Mark Andrews remains Jackson's only truly reliable target, but Zay Flowers keeps showing flashes, Odell Beckham might have a little something left in the tank, and even Nelson Agholor has been useful. Shout-out to defensive coordinator Mike McDonald too, who has kept the defense stingy despite injuries. McDonald's spent the last decade working for the Harbaugh brothers (seven years coming up through the ranks in Baltimore under John, one year as Jim's DC in Michigan, then back to the Ravens as DC the last two seasons), so he could probably be considered the unofficial third brother at this point.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: WR Metcalf (questionable, hip), WR Lockett (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Boye Mafe (questionable, shoulder)
BAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

SEA DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: Smith $6,000 DK / $6,600 FD (BAL first in passing DVOA, third in net passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, second in passing TDs allowed), Lockett $6,200 DK / $6,900 FD (BAL third in DVOA vs. WR2, first in DVOA vs. deep throws)
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL is third in red-zone conversions at 67.6 percent (23-for-34); SEA is 30th in red-zone defense at 68.8 percent (11-for-16), but first in red-zone trips allowed

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kenneth Walker gains 60 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 260 yards and two scores, one each to Metcalf and Nick Bellore. Edwards churns out 80 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Andrews and Flowers, and he also runs in a score. Ravens 31-21

Arizona (+8) at Cleveland, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It looks like it's almost time for Kyler Murray's return, but for some strange reason the Cardinals don't want him to make his 2023 debut against Myles Garrett. Huh, weird. The team had already declared that Joshua Dobbs wouldn't start this one and made sure of it by shipping him to Minnesota, leaving the offense in the hands of 2023 first-round pick Clayton Tune for one game. The kid was born to be a headline pun, so on behalf of the entire sports journalism industry, thanks for that one, Jonathan Gannon. The second half of the season will be huge for Murray's future in Arizona – while it was a bit of a weird trip to get there, the team now has the worst record in the league, as expected, so Gannon and the brain trust have 10 weeks to lock in that No. 1 pick in 2024 and decide whether they want to trade it and build around Kyler, or deal him and welcome in Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye, even).

Since handing the Niners their first loss of the season in Week 6, the Browns have given up 38 points to the Colts and barely squeaked out a win anyway thanks to the refs, then had the football gods redress the balance by having PJ Walker throw an INT on a ball that deflected off the helmet of a blitzing Jamal Adams to set up a game-winning drive by the Seahawks. I'm not saying Cleveland peaked in mid-October, but it's not a good look. The team should get Deshaun Watson back for this one though, and he probably won't need to be 100 percent healthy to secure a win in this matchup anyway. The defense is still the engine of the Browns' success though, no matter how Watson looks, but it is curious that the defense is firmly middle of the pack in both takeaways and sacks. The latter, at least, could correct itself as the season progresses – the unit is fifth in pressure rate, and second in QB knockdown rate. Garrett's getting home, but Za'Darius Smith (one sack) isn't. In fact, no one on the team other than Garrett has more than 2.5 sacks so far.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (PUP-R, knee), RB James Conner (IR, knee), RB Emari Demercado (out, toe), WR Michael Wilson (questionable, shoulder), TE Zach Ertz (IR, quadriceps)
CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

ARI DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: Amari Cooper $6,100 DK / $6,800 FD (ARI 28th in DVOA vs. WR1), Marquise Goodwin $3,000 DK / $4,400 FD and Cedric Tillman $3,000 DK / $4,100 FD (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

ARI DFS fades: Marquise Brown $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR1), Trey McBride $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. TE)
CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is 18th in third-down conversions at 39.8 percent; CLE is first in third-down defense at 28.3 percent. The last team to finish below 30 percent for a season was the Patriots in 2019 (24.1 percent)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Keaontay Ingram leads the ARI backfield with 50 yards and a TD. Tune gets picked off twice and sacked four times while throwing for under 200 yards. Jerome Ford rumbles for 90 yards and a score, while Kareem Hunt adds 60 combined yards. Watson throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Cooper. Browns 20-10

L.A. Rams (+3) at Green Bay, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Stop me if you've heard this one before – the Rams come into the week with injury concerns at quarterback. Matthew Stafford hasn't practiced all week due to a sprained thumb on his throwing hand, and he might be a true game-time decision Sunday as the club waits to see how he feels right before kickoff before making the call. At least this season Stafford has an experienced backup in Brett Rypien, although experienced doesn't mean good. The whole passing game collapsed last week with Stafford not 100 percent, although some credit has to be given to the Dallas secondary as well. Sean McVay isn't the kind of coach to tank, and given that the Rams have three wins it might already be too late to get in on the sweepstakes for the top pick in 2024 (six teams still have two or fewer victories, and the Cards, Bears and Panthers at the very least are all motivated losers), but it will be interesting to see how they approach the back half of their second straight rough campaign after having so much success during McVay's first five seasons on the sideline.

One of those teams with fewer wins than the Rams is the Packers, though. At 2-5 and slowly going nowhere, questions are beginning to percolate over whether Jordan Love is really worthy to take the baton from Aaron Rodgers. That seems premature after his first seven starts, but Green Bay fans have been a bit spoiled when it comes to quarterback play for the last few decades. Nonetheless, Love's 57.7 percent completion rate is dead last among NFL starters this season, and only four QBs have a worse INT% (and two of those four, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Tannehill, have either lost their job or are in the process of losing it.) Love might simply be too aggressive – his 9.3 intended air yards per attempt is higher than Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen – but the running game's done little and the defense hasn't been a true difference-maker, so the impulse to try and make something happen, especially given the massive pair of shadows he's trying to come out from under, is understandable. Basically, I'm not giving up on him yet, and Packers fans shouldn't either.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, thumb), RB Kyren Williams (IR, ankle), WR Puka Nacua (questionable, knee), LB Ernest Jones (out, knee)
GB injuries: LB Quay Walker (questionable, groin)

LAR DFS targets: Cooper Kupp $8,500 DK / $8,700 FD (GB 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
GB DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Tutu Atwell $4,200 DK / $5,200 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3), Rams DST $2,600 DK / $3,300 FD (t-29th in takeaways, t-26th in sacks, GB t-5th in sacks allowed)
GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are 12th in red-zone conversions at 59.1 percent (13-for-22); GB is eighth in red-zone defense at 46.2 percent (12-for-26)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, 9-10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Darrell Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Rypien starts and throws for 240 yards and a score to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) but gets picked off twice. Aaron Jones gains 60 yards and a TD. Love throws for 260 yards and touchdown to Luke Musgrave and Christian Watson. Packers 21-20

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Houston, o/u 40 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The NFC South remains the division no one seems to want to win, and is the only group in the NFL that didn't have anyone over .500 coming into the week. In that light, the Bucs' 3-4 record still leaves them poised to make a run for a playoff spot if they can put it together. The problem is, things are drifting further apart. Tampa's lost three straight and four of five, and the Baker Mayfield-led offense has averaged fewer than 15 points a game during that stretch, failing to top 18 in any of the losses. The former Brown/Panther/Ram (and future Raider?) has a thoroughly mediocre 62.4 percent completion rate, 6.2 YPA and 7:4 TD:INT during that slump, and neither Mike Evans not Chris Godwin has missed a game. Defenses simply don't have to worry about the running game at all, and while Rachaad White has made something of an impact the last couple weeks, it's been as a receiver – he's got just 73 rushing yards on 22 carries in those losses for a 3.3 YPC. Only four backs with semi-consistent roles have gained fewer yards per carry after contact than White, and Next Gen Stats have him rated as the second-worst RB in the league when it comes to rush yards over expected per carry at -1.08. Basically, giving him the ball results in one less yard than it should on average. (The back that's worse? Cam Akers at -1.38. Breece Hall is tops at 1.81.) The Bucs' defense has been stingy and have yet to allow more than 25 points in a game, but the unit might be bending so much it's about to break – during the three-game losing streak, Tampa's allowed just over 400 scrimmage yards a game, but only 20 points a contest. To put that in perspective, the only team that's given up 400-plus yards a game for the whole season is the Broncos, and it's resulted in 28.3 PPG against.

The league definitely seems to have figured something out with C.J. Stroud. It's one thing to get shut down by a top defense like New Orleans, but when Carolina does it, it's time to re-evaluate. It's not like the rookie QB has been bad – he's still only thrown one INT all year – but he's got a 56.0 percent completion rate over his last four starts, even if that comes with a 7.7 YPA. Having some semblance of a running game to take the pressure off the kind would help, and Devin Singletary will get a chance this week to show he can be at least part of a solution to that puzzle. The key to whatever designs DeMeco Ryans might have of sneaking his 3-4 squad into the playoffs probably rests with the defense, though. The Texans have held five straight opponents to 21 points or less, producing multiple turnovers against three of them. Limiting the deficits Stroud has to overcome and giving him some short fields to work with is also a very effective way to take the pressure off him.

The Skinny

TB injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (out, ankle), WR Robert Woods (out, foot)

TB DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: Tank Dell $5,300 DK / $5,800 FD (TB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

TB DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Texans DST $3,000 DK / $4,200 FD (t-26th in sacks, TB t-2nd in giveaways, second in sacks allowed)

Key stat: HOU is seventh in third-down conversions at 44.0 percent; TB is 32nd in third-down defense at 50.5 percent

The Scoop: White squeaks out 60 scrimmage yards with a receiving score. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Evans. Singletary grinds out 40 yards. Stroud rebounds with 310 yards and three TDs, one to Nico Collins (who tops 100 yards) and two to Dell. Texans 27-20

Washington (+3.5) at New England, o/u 40.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If the Commanders could only play the Eagles every week... well, they'd probably be 0-17, but it would be a really exciting 0-17. Eric Bienemy's offense has scored more than 30 points three times this season, and two of those games came against Philly (the third? You guessed it, the Broncos.) Last week's season-high 472 yards of offense didn't produce a win though, and Washington's dropped five of six. There's still time to put together a surge that gets the team into a wild-card spot, but time's a-ticking. Despite his erratic week-to-week numbers, in some ways Sam Howell has been incredibly consistent – he's never posted a YPA above 7.7 or below 5.9 this season, for instance. He also got Jahan Dotson going last week, and if that carries forward, the Commanders have the aerial arsenal to keep putting up big scores. Jack Del Rio's defense has fallen apart though, and the team's given up more than 30 points five times already. Trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat before they hit free agency guts the pass rush too, and suddenly a Week 13 meeting with the Dolphins is looking very ominous, not to mention their two clashes with the Cowboys in the second half of the year. They haven't been the absolute worst defense in the league through eight weeks, but I wouldn't bet against them being bottom of the barrel over the final 10.

The warm fuzzies the Patriots generated with their upset of the Bills evaporated pretty quickly last week. Mac Jones has at least thrown multiple TDs in consecutive games, something he'd done only twice before in his career (he actually ended 2022 with a three-game streak, which also involved Buffalo and Miami), but he's got a long way to go to even get back to the form he flashed as a rookie. He also just lost his most reliable receiver, as Kendrick Bourne avoided getting traded by suffering a season-ending ACL tear. New England's so desperate for help at wideout that Jalen Reagor is getting snaps, but 2023 sixth-round pick Demario Douglas is making a pitch to be the team's next great slot receiver, posting a 9-79-0 line on 13 targets over the last two games. Those aren't exactly Edelman/Welker numbers, but given the state of the offense around him, they're pretty good. It's hard to overstate how far the franchise has fallen. New England's minus-90 point differential is the worst in the AFC (the Giants are at minus-92), and at 2-6 the team has a legit chance to make a play for the top pick in 2024. Bill Belichick's squads have historically had a tendency to get better as the season progressed as he built a book on their strengths and the opponent's weaknesses, but maybe this would be a good year to maybe not be quite so rigorous.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (out, toe), LB Cody Barton (IR, ankle)
NE injuries: WR Bourne (IR, knee), WR DeVante Parker (out, concussion), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Josh Uche (questionable, foot)

WAS DFS targets: Jamison Crowder $3,400 DK / $5,300 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Logan Thomas $3,500 DK / $5,600 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
NE DFS targets: Jones $4,900 DK / $6,600 FD (WAS 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Douglas $4,000 DK / $5,400 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

WAS DFS fades: Terry McLaurin $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS is eighth in red-zone conversions at 61.5 percent (16-for-26); NE is 10th in red-zone defense at 46.4 percent (13-for-28)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Brian Robinson picks up 50 yards and a TD. Howell throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Dotson and Thomas. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 50 yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Hunter Henry and Douglas. Commanders 21-17

Chicago (+7.5) at New Orleans, o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bears have shown they're good enough this year to beat even more dysfunctional teams like the Raiders, but that's about it. Justin Fields continues to make his way back from a dislocated thumb that renders him unable to grip a football at full strength, and while undrafted rookie replacement Tyson Bagent is a nice feel-good story, his limitations as a quarterback have quickly become apparent. Matt Eberflus also squandered a juicy matchup for his backfield last week against the Chargers by splitting the workload three ways, and none of D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson or Darrynton Evans saw more than 10 touches. I get that the team was already just going through the motions on the season and things are now in a complete holding pattern because Fields isn't err, on the field to make his final case to keep the starting job into 2024, but don't be mean to those poor running backs who are just trying to prove they belong in the league.

The Saints are 4-4 and in the thick of the race for the NFC South title, although 'meander' might be a better word for it. The offense keeps teasing a shift into high gear – 34 points against the Patriots in Week 5, 38 points and over 500 yards against the Colts last week – but it always seems to throttle down right afterwards. Taysom Hill has fantasy hearts a-flutter again with three rushing TDs in the last two games, but it's the Alvin Kamara resurgence that should be getting more attention. He's topped 100 scrimmage yards in three straight, racking up 367 yards in total plus two touchdowns last week, and with him in peak form, Derek Carr's gotten rolling too. The QB posted an absurd 11.5 YPA last week against Indy as he threw for over 300 yards for the third straight contest, and the only disappointing part of his breakout has been the four passing TDs. Hill won't keep stealing them forever, though.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Fields (doubtful, thumb), RB Khalil Herbert (IR, ankle), LB Tremaine Edmunds (out, knee)
NO injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

CHI DFS targets: none
NO DFS targets: Carr $5,700 DK / $7,100 FD (CHI 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed)

CHI DFS fades: none
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO is 27th in red-zone conversions at 42.9 percent (12-for-28); CHI is 32nd in red-zone defense at 78.3 percent (18-for-23)

The Scoop: Johnson leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a receiving TD, and Foreman also punches in a touchdown. Bagent throws for under 200 yards. Kamara piles up 100 combined yards and a receiving score. Carr throws for 310 yards and two more TDs, finding Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Saints 27-17

LATE SUNDAY

Indianapolis at Carolina (+2.5), o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Colts have become this year's fantasy jackpot team. Six of their eight games have seen total scores of over 50 points with their last two going over 60, and their lowest-scoring contest so far was a 23-16 win over the Titans in Week 5 – and that was the Zack Moss Game (195 scrimmage yards and two TDs.) Indy's sixth in points per game and seventh in total yards, while being dead last in points per game allowed and 29th in total yards allowed. It hasn't been a successful formula, as the Colts have lost three straight to drop into the AFC South basement, but it sure is a fun one. Gardner Minshew's started in all three of those losses, and while he has two 300-yard performances in that stretch with seven total TDs (five passing, two rushing), he's also completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and has nine turnovers. All that offense has made a fantasy stud out of rookie Josh Downs (23-315-2 on 29 targets over the last four weeks) even though his target volume is still lagging behind Michael Pittman (24-284-2 on 39 targets during the same stretch). Jonathan Taylor's begun to heat up too, as he's picked up 217 scrimmage yards and a TD over the last two games. Shane Steichen's scheme is definitely clicking, but you have to wonder if the NFL has simply passed Gus Bradley by as a defensive coordinator. Over the last four seasons, for three different teams, his units have ranked 23rd, 26th, 28th and 32nd in points allowed.

Congrats to the Panthers for getting their first win last week! The 2017 Browns can pop that champagne now. As per usual, the QB got all the credit because it makes for an easy narrative, and while Bryce Young does appear to be making progress it was the defense that really stepped up against the Texans, holding an opponent under 20 points for the first time all year. Since missing Week 3 to tend to an ankle injury though, Young has posted an entirely respectable 66.9 percent completion rate, 6.4 YPA and 5:2 TD:INT across his last four starts. He still has only one reliable target in Adam Thielen, but rookie wideout Jonathan Mingo is coming off the highest yardage total of his career and 2021 third-round pick Tommy Tremble is beginning to emerge as a red-zone threat, so pieces are slowly falling into place. Some more support from the running game would be nice, but Miles Sanders has been a bust and Chuba Hubbard's 3.9 YPA is right in line with his career numbers, so it'll likely be on Ejiro Evero's defense the rest of the way to keep things close enough to eke out a victory now and then, despite some big-name injury absences.

The Skinny

IND injuries: WR Downs (questionable, knee), LB Zaire Franklin (questionable, knee)
CAR injuries: WR DJ Chark (questionable, elbow)

IND DFS targets: Taylor $6,400 DK / $8,000 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Alec Pierce $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 11th in red-zone conversions at 59.3 percent (16-for-27); CAR is 31st in red-zone defense at 76.9 percent (20-for-26)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor romps for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Minshew throws for 290 yards and two scores, both to Pittman (who tops 100 yards), but he also tosses a pick-six to Xavier Woods. Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 40 yards. Young throws for 220 yards and a TD to Mingo. Colts 31-20

N.Y. Giants (+2) at Las Vegas, o/u 37 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

I just ... I don't even know what to say. Minus nine net passing yards. Sure, the Giants were down to their third-string QB in a bad-weather game, but still. And they should have won! They had the ball on the Jets' 26-yard line with 1:26 to go in the fourth quarter and the lead, and they still Big Blue it. Just incredible. The Giants are now 2-6 and are looking like a serious contender for a top-five pick in 2024, if not the No. 1 selection, which makes the Daniel Jones contract that much tougher to swallow. Jones has a dead cap hit of over $69 million next year, by the way, so there's zero chance he gets cut loose. It's entirely possible the team has a $41 million backup QB next season. Anyway, Jones should be back this week from his neck injury but Tyrod Taylor's now sidelined, which again leaves the team one big hit from having Tommy DeVito under center again even though Brian Daboll clearly doesn't trust the kid to have to throw the ball downfield. Saquon Barkley's averaging nearly 115 scrimmage yards a game over the last three weeks, but that's basically the only thing going right for the Giants right now.

And yet, they might still be in better shape as an organization than the Raiders. After a truly inept performance by Jimmy Garoppolo, both head coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler got the sack. That comes a little under two years after Mike Mayock was let go as GM, and just over two years after Jon Gruden's flameout. It's been an absolute parade of big-name, high-profile failure since the team moved to Vegas, so who has to step in and clean up the mess? A guy from Long Beach who grew up listening to NWA, naturally. Antonio Pierce is the new interim coach after joining the staff last year as the linebackers coach, and while the odds he'll be replaced in the offseason by another big-name white guy are approximately 8,000 percent, he should at least provide some good quotes about restoring Raider pride. The guy I'm really keeping an eye on is new interim OC Bo Hardegree, though. The guy has worked for the best (he was on Belichick's staff in 2021) and the worst, as he spent time under Adam Gase with the Dolphins and Jets as well as McDaniels, and he also had a front-row seat for John Fox's disastrous stint with the Bears. Basically, if anyone should know what not to do as an NFL coach, it's this guy. The Raiders are also benching Jimmy G and installing preseason darling Aidan O'Connell as the new starting QB, a very clear sign that they're playing for draft position at this point. Davante Adams won't care, just so long as someone remembers to throw him the ball – he hasn't scored a TD since Week 3 or reached 60 yards since Week 4.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Taylor (out, ribs), TE Darren Waller (out, hamstring), K Graham Gano (IR, knee)
LV injuries: LB Divine Deablo (out, ankle), LB Robert Spillane (questionable, hand)

NYG DFS targets: none
LV DFS targets: none

NYG DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Jakobi Meyers $6,400 DK / $7,000 FD (NYG second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYG are 31st in red-zone conversions at 33.3 percent (7-for-21); LV is 25th in red-zone defense at 64.3 percent (18-for-28)

The Scoop: Barkley grinds out 70 yards and a score. Jones throws for under 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked five times, with Maxx Crosby returning a fumble to the house. Josh Jacobs manages 50 yards. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards as well but does find Adams for the game-winning TD. Raiders 17-13

Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia, o/u 46 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The NFC's premiere matchup sees the Cowboys come in with a ton of momentum after they dismantled the Rams last week. Dak Prescott had his best performance of the year, but it was again the defense that led the way – DaRon Bland produced his third pick-six of the season, one short of the NFL record, and the special teams chipped in a safety as well on a blocked punt. When Dallas is firing on all cylinders, Mike McCarthy's squad looks like world-beaters, but this is also a team that got steamrolled by the Niners in their first real test and also somehow lost to the Cardinals. As a play-caller, McCarthy also seems to have trouble focusing on more than one thing at a time. If getting Prescott going is the goal, as it was last week, then Tony Pollard gets forgotten. In fact, the RB somehow hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1, and last week's 53 rushing yards was his highest output since Week 3. That should change eventually – maybe not this week, given the opposition – but when it does, it'll probably come at Prescott's expense.

The Eagles, on the other hand, have the best record in the NFL at 7-1, with the one loss coming against an elite Jets defense. Philly's own D has been curiously vulnerable through the air this year – Sam Howell's hung 31 points on them twice, and Kirk Cousins had a huge day against this secondary back in Week 2 – but Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have been all too happy to out-score anyone who steps to them. While everyone's been watching Tyreek Hill and his pursuit of 2,000 yards, Brown has been busy breaking another of Calvin Johnson's records, recording his sixth straight game of 125 yards or more last week. The former Titan's on track for 1,995 yards this season as well, so the quest to break Megatron's all-time record of 1,964 could well be a two-horse race in December. (Or a cheetah and a bat, I guess?) Somewhat like the Cowboys, the Eagles' running game has taken a back seat during the passing game's rampage, but while D'Andre Swift hasn't topped 70 rushing yards since Week 3, he's at least finding the end zone every other week or so. These could very well be the top two teams in the conference right now, and the only real difference between them is that the Eagles seem to have proven it more consistently – although they, too, haven't really beaten anyone other than the Dolphins. Philly's gauntlet comes after their bye, as starting in Week 11 they get a Super Bowl rematch with Kansas City followed by games against the Bills, 49ers and then the Cowboys in Dallas, with the Seahawks no slouch to close out that stretch. They have three gimme wins to close out the campaign (Giants/Cards/Giants) as a Christmas present though.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (IR, neck)
PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DAL DFS targets: Jake Ferguson $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
PHI DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Pollard $6,800 DK / $6,600 FD (PHI first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed)
PHI DFS fades: Olamide Zaccheaus $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DAL, average score 29-23 DAL, average margin of victory 13 points. PHI has won three of the last four meetings at Lincoln Financial Field. Curiously, Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have only met once so far as starters, a 41-21 win for DAL in Week 3 of the 2021 season. Fletcher Cox is the only player from either team that scored a TD in the game and will be on the field Sunday
Key stat: PHI is ninth in net yards per play at 0.36; DAL is 11th at 0.23

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pollard manages 70 combined yards. Prescott throws for 290 yards and three TDs, finding Ferguson, Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb (who tops 100 yards). Swift busts out for 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Hurts throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Brown and DeVonta Smith, while also running in a score of his own. Eagles 31-30

SUNDAY NIGHT

Buffalo (+2.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

It's a big day for potential conference championship previews. The Bills got by the Bucs last week, and while they remain a game back of the Dolphins in the AFC East, Buffalo won the first meeting. The bigger concern for the team is the stagnation of the offense. Josh Allen and company haven't scored more than 25 points in any of their last four games, averaging just 20.8 points a contest over that stretch after racking up 41 a game over the prior three. It's hard to spot exactly what the problem is too, although giveaways are at least part of the answer. Allen's produced multiple TDs in seven straight, James Cook has a 4.7 YPC over the last three, and the secondary targets have taken turns having big games behind Stefon Diggs. And yet, that's suddenly not turning into the kind of offensive eruptions we're used to from the Bills. I have to think that will correct itself soon enough (and a home game against the Broncos next week could be exactly the cure the Bills need), and a defense that's held five of eight opponents to 20 points or less and just bolstered its secondary at the trade deadline with Rasul Douglas can make do with that level of support, but the standards in upstate New York these days are higher than just making do.

Stop me if you're heard this one before. The Bengals start the season looking a bit rough, but then midseason something clicks and they go on a tear that takes them straight into the playoffs. At this time last year, Cincy was 4-3, but after a Week 8 loss to Cleveland they proceeded to reel off 10 straight wins, only to finally fall short against Kansas City in the AFC title game. In 2021? They were just 5-4 heading into their bye, but wound up making the Super Bowl. This season's 4-3 record is just business as usual, in other words, and this time around they even have the excuse of Joe Burrow's calf injury for some of their early losses. The QB looked plenty healthy last week coming out of the team's bye though, and over the last three games (all wins) Burrow has an 8:2 TD:INT to go along with his 77.9 percent completion rate (not a typo) and 6.9 YPA. Ja'Marr Chase has been a monster during that run, posting a 31-372-4 line on 44 targets, and that's bought time for Tee Higgins to get back to 100 percent too. At the same time, Cincy's defense has held three straight opponents to 20 points or less thanks to eight total takeaways, and two of those games were against the class of the NFC West in the Niners and Seahawks. They're still two wins back of the Ravens in the AFC North and lost the first meeting between the teams, which could wind up costing them, but it seems like the Bengals have flipped the switch for 2023.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (IR, wrist)
CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, chest)

BUF DFS targets: Cook $6,200 DK / $6,600 FD (CIN 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed)
CIN DFS targets: Chase $8,300 DK / $9,000 FD (BUF 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is second in third-down conversions at 49.0 percent; CIN is 24th in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Dalton Kincaid and Gabe Davis, and he also runs in a score. Mixon puts together 70 yards. Burrow throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and Higgins. Bills 31-23

THURSDAY NIGHT

Tennessee (+2.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 36.5
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Talk about changing the narrative. The Titans headed into last week at 2-4 and having dropped three of their last four. Their starting QB was hurt, even coming out of their bye; Kevin Byard was off to Philly, and pretty much every other veteran, including Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins, seemed to be on the trade block. Then Will Levis stepped in under center wearing that snazzy Oilers throwback jersey and did a credible impression of Warren Moon, and Tennessee suddenly looked like a playoff contender again. While it's easy to dismiss Levis' performance in his NFL debut as a product of a bad defense that wasn't really able to prepare for him, the Falcons haven't actually been that bad this season. The Kentucky product was also seen as a plausible first-round pick heading into the 2023 draft, maybe even a top-10 selection, and when he slid to Day 2 the Titans pounced. I'm not saying Levis is the next Aaron Rodgers, but he's no slouch, and Hopkins was very, very happy to once again be working with a quarterback who was willing to just chuck it up and let him go to work. Ryan Tannehill might want to get used to watching from the sideline. Lost in the Levis hoopla is that Derrick Henry topped 100 rushing yards last week for the second time this year. If defenses actually have to worry about the Tennessee passing attack for once, the big man could feast in the second half of the season.

The Steelers also have an uncertain QB situation, but not in the good way. Kenny Pickett took a big shot to the ribs in last week's loss, and on a short week he might not be 100 percent recovered. If he has to exit again, that would leave Mitch Trubisky under center, and he flashed his usual skills by throwing two INTs in the second half against the Jags. His numbers for Pittsburgh over the last two years are mediocre at best – 63.7 percent completion rate, 6.6 YPA, 5:7 TD:INT in 212 attempts – but if Pickett can't go, the alternative is Mason Rudolph, whose career numbers are even worse. If the team's defense and running game were functioning at their usual levels, letting Pickett heal up for a week would be an option, but Najee Harris has done little in 2023 and Minkah Fitzpatrick just went down. Every loss hurts in the tightly packed AFC North – Baltimore's inched ahead at 6-2, but everyone else is 4-3 – and even a team that scrounges out miraculous wins on a regular basis could find this rabbit tough to yank out of its helmet. The Steelers actually have a minus-34 point differential despite their winning record, as all four victories have been by a single score while their three losses have all been by double digits.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (out, ankle), WR Hopkins (questionable, toe)
PIT injuries: TE Pat Freiermuth (IR, hamstring), S Fitzpatrick (out, hamstring)

TEN DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: Diontae Johnson $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Steelers DST $3,500 DK / $4,400 FD (second in takeaways, TEN t-26th in sacks allowed)

TEN DFS fades: Chigoziem Okonkwo $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)
PIT DFS fades: Harris $5,000 DK / $6,100 FD (TEN second in rushing DVOA, t-6th in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: PIT 24th in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent (5-for-11), and last in trips to the red zone; TEN is second in red-zone defense at 34.6 percent (9-for-26)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Henry bashes out 70 yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for under 200 yards but does find Hopkins for a TD. Harris manages 40 yards. Pickett throws for 200 yards, finding George Pickens for a score. A Keanu Neal fumble return for a score keeps things close. Titans 17-14

Last week's record: 11-5, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2023 record: 69-53, 57-61-4 ATS, 67-53-2 o/u