NFL Game Previews: Bills-Titans Matchup

Buffalo at Tennessee (+1), o/u 49.0 – Tuesday, 7 p.m. EDT

Do I think this game will happen? Nope. Do I think it should happen? Nope. Do I think the Titans will be at all prepared for it if it does? Nope. Nevertheless, if it does go ahead as "planned," Josh Allen will get to continue his march toward the Mahomes-Wilson-Jackson tier of QBs. He's accounted for at least three TDs in four consecutive games, and about the only people displeased with the huge leap forward he's taken with his play is anyone with Devin Singletary shares since Allen keeps hogging all the goal-line carries. As for the Titans, really, what is there to say? They might get A.J. Brown back, which would be helpful as the rest of their starting wideouts are part of the plague brigade. If they somehow win this one, players all around the league are going to suddenly start wondering what the point of all that practice is during the week.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RB Zack Moss (questionable, toe), WR John Brown (questionable, knee), RG Brian Winters (questionable, knee), LB Matt Milano (out, pectoral), CB Tre'Davious White (questionable, back)

TEN injuries: WR A.J. Brown (questionable, knee), WR Corey Davis (out, COVID), WR Adam Humphries (out, COVID), LT Taylor Lewan (questionable, shoulder)

BUF DFS targets: Devin Singletary $5,900 DK / $6,300 FD (TEN 32nd in YPC allowed)

TEN DFS targets: A.J. Brown $5,400 DK / $6,500 FD (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

BUF DFS fades: Cole Beasley $4,700 DK / $5,200 FD (TEN third in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is t-fifth in third-down conversions at 51.1 percent; TEN is 29th in third-down defense at 51.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Singletary racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Allen throws for 260 yards and runs for 40 more, hitting Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox for scores. Derrick Henry thunders for 120 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Tannehill throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Brown. Bills, 24-20

L.A. Chargers (+7.5) at New Orleans, o/u 51.0
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Anthony Lynn, two weeks behind the rest of the world, "broke" the news Thursday that Justin Herbert was now his starting quarterback and not just a place-holder until Tyrod Taylor returns. Really? Wow, big shocker there. Herbert came one first down shy of starting his career with three straight 300-yard games, and with the rookie at the helm the Bolts have ... OK, they've lost three straight, but they were all close losses. (Fast forward to Lynn giving the job back to Taylor in a couple weeks if Herbert loses here, then can't beat the Jets on a short week). Of bigger concern for the team is what the offense is going to look like without Austin Ekeler's services for a month or more. The shine has come off Joshua Kelley pretty quickly after his debut, and while Justin Jackson has flashed some big-play ability in his career, he's only ever seen double-digit touches once in the NFL (managing 85 scrimmage yards and a TD on 16 carries and three catches in Week 15 of his rookie campaign). Something tells me a two-Justin backfield isn't going to be quite as effective as Green Bay's two-Aaron attack. The Saints are moving in the opposite direction health-wise as Michael Thomas seems set to return and make things right with the New Orleans passing game. Drew Brees has gotten by without him and maybe even finally learned to trust Tre'Quan Smith a little, but 2-2 is not the record the team expected to have at this point. One of those wins was against the Bucs, though, which could be huge down the road as the NFC South looks to become a battle between the two oldest gunslingers in the league, Brees and Tom Brady.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: QB Taylor (out, chest), RB Ekeler (IR, hamstring), WR Mike Williams (questionable, hamstring), RG Trai Turner (out, groin), RT Bryan Bulaga (out, back), DE Joey Bosa (questionable, triceps)

NO injuries: WR Thomas (questionable, ankle), TE Jared Cook (questionable, groin), LG Andrus Peat (questionable, ankle), CB Marshon Lattimore (questionable, hamstring), CB Janoris Jenkins (out, shoulder)

LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert $6,000 DK / $7,000 FD (NO 31st in TD% allowed)

NO DFS targets: Michael Thomas $7,600 DK / $8,800 FD (LAC 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAC DFS fades: none

NO DFS fades: Alvin Kamara $8,200 DK / $8,900 FD (LAC first in passing DVOA vs. RB, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: NO is t-second in third-down conversions at 52.9 percent; LAC is t-11th in third-down defense at 40.4 percent

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop: Jackson leads the LAC backfield with 60 yards, while Kelley picks up 50. Herbert throws for 300 yards and TDs to Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen. Kamara manages 80 yards. Brees throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, finding Thomas (who tops 100 yards in his return), Cook and Smith. Saints, 30-20 

L.A. Rams at Washington (+7), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's hard to get a read on the Rams. Sure, they're 3-1, but all three wins came against the putrid NFC East and two were only by a single score, including last week's nail biter against the Giants. On the other hand, their one loss was by a single field goal in Buffalo. The erratic backfield usage is frustration from a fantasy perspective, but it also suggests coach Sean McVay isn't entirely sold on either Darrell Henderson or Malcolm Brown as his feature back, potentially leaving the door open for a healthy Cam Akers to push his way to the front of the line. At least the passing game is humming, as the team is fourth in completion percentage and air yards per attempt, an impressive combo — assuming it isn't just a mirage created by that early schedule. Washington is all that stands between them and an NFC East sweep, but the timing might be wrong — Ron Rivera has finally figured out that Dwayne Haskins isn't ready for a starting assignment, so the Rams' defense misses out on facing him, but instead gets Kyle Allen, whose performance last year in Carolina doesn't suggest he's much of an upgrade. The middle of their offensive line is also a bit banged up and could be down to its third-string right guard, so Allen could get to make the acquaintance of Aaron Donald, and the muddy turf at FedEx Field, early and often Sunday.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: LB Micah Kiser (questionable, groin), CB Troy Hill (questionable, ankle)

WAS injuries: WR Steven Sims (IR, toe), C Chase Roullier (questionable, knee), RG Wes Schweitzer (questionable, elbow), DE Chase Young (questionable, groin)

LAR DFS targets: Tyler Higbee $5,600 DK / $6,000 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS targets: Antonio Gibson $5,000 DK / $5,800 FD (LAR 28th in YPC allowed), Washington DST $2,600 DK / $3,800 FD (third in sack rate, second in INT%)

LAR DFS fades: Robert Woods $6,400 DK / $6,700 FD (WAS first in DVOA vs. WR2), Josh Reynolds $4,000 DK / $4,700 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR3)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS is t-31st in third-down conversions at 33.3 percent; LAR are t-11th in third-down defense at 40.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 50-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Browns leads the Rams backfield with 60 yards, but Akers scores his first career touchdown. Jared Goff throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Higbee and Cooper Kupp. Gibson gains 90 scrimmage yards and scores for the fourth consecutive game. Allen throws for 270 yards and a TD to Terry McLaurin but gets picked off twice and loses a fumble on a Donald sack that Leonard Floyd returns to the house. Rams, 31-20

Philadelphia (+7) at Pittsburgh, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If you squint just right, the NFC East doesn't look so bad — I mean, the division-leading Eagles are unbeaten in their last two games! At least the team has a good excuse for their sub-.500 record, as they have more offensive talent on IR than on the field, including three projected starters from the O-line (four if you count Brandon Brooks, who's officially on the PUP list) and three of their top four pass-catching options. It's no wonder Carson Wentz has already thrown seven picks in four games, exactly matching his INT total from each of the last three seasons in a fraction of the time, but he's compensated on the ground, already rushing for three TDs to exactly match his career total coming into 2020. That kind of game plan probably won't work against the Steelers, though. Pittsburgh's given up a grand total of 32 rushing yards and zero rushing TDs to QBs through three games, and it hasn't played statues — the early schedule included games against Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson. There's just too much speed on this defense for a quarterback to have much luck scrambling. The offense hasn't been too shabby either, as James Conner has posted consecutive 100-yard games and Ben Roethlisberger is back to slinging the ball with his usual abandon. Oh, did I mention that the Steelers are pretty much healthy thanks to the extra time off they got due to the Titans' idiocy? The battle of Pennsylvania, at least on paper, looks very lopsided this year.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: WR Alshon Jeffery (out, foot), WR DeSean Jackson (out, hamstring), LT Jason Peters (IR, toe), CB Avonte Maddox (out, ankle)

PIT injuries: none

PHI DFS targets: Travis Fulghum $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (PIT 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS targets: Eric Ebron $4,000 DK / $5,100 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Steelers DST $3,800 DK / $4,400 FD (first in sack rate, PHI t-31st in giveaways, 31st in INT% allowed)

PHI DFS fades: Miles Sanders $6,500 DK / $7,500 FD (PIT first in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)

PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent; PIT is t-fourth in red-zone defense at 44.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders ekes out 50 yards. Wentz throws for 210 yards and a TD to Fulghum. Conner bangs out 140 scrimmage yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Diontae Johnson and Ebron. Steelers, 30-10

Arizona at N.Y. Jets (+7), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Remember in Week 1, when the Cards beat a mostly healthy Niners squad and people thought they might be one of this year's surprising contenders? Funny how a two-game losing streak against the Lions and Panthers can puncture that balloon. To be fair, Arizona's still played pretty well overall this season — the NFC West is the only division where all four clubs are in the black in point differential — but Kyler Murray's turnovers are becoming an issue. He's a dynamic talent, but the Cards have committed six turnovers through four games, and Murray is responsible for all of them with five INTs and a lost fumble. He only had 14 TOs (12 picks and two lost fumbles) on his ledger as a rookie, so this should be something he can rein in. The Jets' young QB, Sam Darnold, is guaranteed not to commit a turnover in this game because he won't play. Joe Flacco will instead make his first start as a Jet, and first start since Week 8 last year with Denver. The 35-year-old wasn't utterly terrible during his stint with the Broncos — his 7.0 YPA was his best mark since 2014, and his 65.3 percent completion rate was a career high — but he won't have a lot to work with here beyond Jamison Crowder, and will probably be missing his left tackle to boot. Maybe his background in Baltimore's TE-friendly system will be just what Chris Herndon needs to get going, though.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: DE Jordan Phillips (questionable, illness)

NYJ injuries: QB Sam Darnold (out, shoulder), WR Breshad Perriman (doubtful, ankle), WR Chris Hogan (questionable, ribs), LT Mekhi Becton (doubtful, shoulder), CB Blessuan Austin (questionable, calf)

ARI DFS targets: Christian Kirk $4,700 DK / $5,600 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

NYJ DFS targets: Jamison Crowder $5,800 DK / $6,300 FD (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ARI DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 31st in red-zone conversions at 22.2 percent; ARI is t-fourth in red-zone defense at 44.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake picks up 80 combined yards. Murray throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding DeAndre Hopkins and Kirk, and runs in a score of his own. Le'Veon Bell picks up 70 yards in his return. Flacco throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Crowder and Herndon, but he tosses a couple of untimely picks. Cardinals, 27-23 

Las Vegas (+13) at Kansas City, o/u 56.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After a 2-0 start, the Raiders' schedule has caught up to them, and they seem destined for a sub-.500 record heading into their Week 6 bye. Coach Jon Gruden must be thrilled that Derek Carr's transformation into the perfect dinker and dunker is complete — he's second in the league in completion percentage behind only Russell Wilson and has a pristine 8:0 TD:INT, but his 6.6 intended air yards per attempt ranks 29th of 33 qualifiers — but that's probably not enough to keep up with the Mahomeses. Having Josh Jacobs end his three-game touchdown drought would help too, but just getting him going in general would be a step in the right direction, as his scrimmage yards have declined every game since his Week 1 eruption. Kansas City, meanwhile, would go up by three games in the AFC West with a win, and while it would be weird for a team to start worrying about playoff seeding in October, that could be the position the defending champs find themselves in. The offense isn't even firing on all cylinders yet (despite all the early-season fireworks across the league, K.C. has yet to score more than 34 points in a game), and it's their defense that's been the secret engine of their 4-0 start, continuing the improvement it showed in the second half of 2019. Only the Colts have given up fewer points per game, and Kansas City is the only team that has yet to allow an opponent to score more than 20. If they maintain that level of performance when Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce etc. aren't on the field ... hoo boy.

The Skinny

LV injuries: WR Henry Ruggs (questionable, knee), WR Bryan Edwards (out, ankle), RT Trent Brown (questionable, calf)

KC injuries: none

LV DFS targets: Josh Jacobs $6,300 DK / $8,200 FD (KC 31st in YPC allowed)

KC DFS targets: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $6,800 DK / $7,900 FD (LV 30th in rushing DVOA, 27th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)

LV DFS fades: Derek Carr $5,300 DK / $6,900 FD (KC first in passing DVOA, second in QB rating against), Henry Ruggs $4,700 DK / $5,300 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. WR1, first in DVOA vs. deep throws), Raiders DST $2,000 DK / $3,000 FD (KC third in giveaways, t-first in INT% allowed, first in sack rate allowed)

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 53.8 percent; LV is 28th in third-down defense at 50.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 KC, average score 30-16 KC, average margin of victory 14 points. The lone Raiders victory was by one point (31-30 in Week 7 of 2017), and in Mahomes' four starts in the series (all KC wins), the average score has been 36-14

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, 10-13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacobs rumbles for 100 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Carr throws for 250 yards. Edwards-Helaire responds with 130 scrimmage yards and rushing and receiving scores as well. Mahomes light it up for 340 yards and three more TDs, hitting Sammy Watkins (who tops 100 yards) twice and Hill once. Kansas City, 35-20

Jacksonville (+6) at Houston, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The battle for the basement in the AFC South sees the Jags trying to snap a three-game losing skid against the winless Texans. In fact, Jacksonville has handed both Miami and Cincinnati (and Joe Burrow) their first wins of the year, which is a bad omen when you're facing an 0-4 squad. With those kind of recommendations, I'm surprised this wasn't the Thursday nighter. The Jags have been getting solid numbers from rookies James Robinson and Laviska Shenault, and Gardner Minshew's been turning his high volume into decent production, but the defense simply can't get a stop — 55.0 percent of the opposition's drives have ended in points, a mark of futility only the Vikings (60.5 percent) can top to begin 2020. The Texans will be looking to begin the Romeo Crennel era with a win, of course, and they may well get it given the opponent, but it's still shocking to contemplate the state of the roster coach Bill O'Brien leaves behind. Houston has one of the highest payrolls and one of the oldest teams in the league, no cap space for 2021 and Miami holds their first and second round picks in next year's draft. Basically, they desperately need to blow it all up and rebuild around Deshaun Watson, but there's little point doing it until next season. Yikes. Oh, and if you're expecting the coaching change to maybe give Duke Johnson one more chance to soar, don't get your hopes up. During Crennel's prior stints as a head coach (which, granted, came a decade-plus ago when the NFL was a very different place), he preferred using a bell cow back even more than O'Brien did. If anything, David Johnson seems likely to get an even bigger workload under Crennel than he did under the guy who needed to justify trading DeAndre Hopkins for him.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: DE Josh Allen (questionable, knee), LB Myles Jack (questionable, ankle), CB C.J. Henderson (questionable, shoulder)

HOU injuries: TE Jordan Akins (questionable, concussion), LB Benardrick McKinney (questionable, shoulder)

JAC DFS targets: Gardner Minshew $6,200 DK / $7,200 FD (HOU 31st in QB rating against), Keelan Cole $4,700 DK / $5,400 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Jaguars DST $2,900 DK / $3,600 FD (HOU 32nd in sack rate allowed)

HOU DFS targets: Deshaun Watson $6,900 DK / $7,900 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in QB rating against)

JAC DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is t-seventh in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; HOU is 10th in red-zone defense at 55.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 HOU, average score 20-17 HOU, average margin of victory 15 points. HOU has won four straight meetings

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Robinson runs for 80 yards and a TD. Minshew throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Cole and Tyler Eifert. David Johnson gains 90 yards and a score. Watson runs in a TD of his own and throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson. Texans, 28-27

Cincinnati (+13) at Baltimore, o/u 51.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

With his first win in the bank, Joe Burrow can focus on simply getting better and improving in specific areas (like that 1-for-20 showing in deep throws that got bandied about this week). While it's not quite an ideal situation around him, the rookie has some talent to work with at the skill positions and zero pressure to produce immediate results in the win column, which has certainly helped him look as loose as he has. Add it all up and you get three consecutive games with 300-plus passing yards for the kid plus a 6:1 TD:INT over that stretch, though he has yet to play a really nasty defense. Surprisingly, that streak seems like it continues in this one. The Ravens have the defensive reputation, but it hasn't shown up on the stat sheet yet as they are middle of the pack or worse in QB rating against, completion percentage allowed, passing yards per game allowed. Those numbers might be a bit misleading — they've kept every opponent not led by Patrick Mahomes to 17 points or less — but they also might be a reflection of where they sit as a unit, once you balance out Mahomes with QBs like Dwayne Haskins. In what's shaping up to be a three-horse race in the AFC North, the defense getting better could be the key to Baltimore's success, especially given that Lamar Jackson and the running game haven't been able to recapture last year's magic.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, shin), CB Mackensie Alexander (doubtful, ribs)

BAL injuries: QB Lamar Jackson (questionable, knee), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, knee), TE Mark Andrews (questionable, thigh), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, shoulder), RG Tyre Phillips (doubtful, shoulder), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, thigh)

CIN DFS targets: Bengals DST $2,300 DK / $3,100 FD (BAL 31st in sack rate allowed)

BAL DFS targets: Willie Snead $3,700 DK / $5,000 FD (CIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $6,300 DK / $6,900 FD (BAL third in rushing DVOA)

BAL DFS fades: Mark Andrews $6,200 DK / $7,500 FD (CIN third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CIN is 30th in red-zone conversions at 38.5 percent; BAL is t-28th in red-zone defense at 77.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 24-21 BAL, average margin of victory 11 points. BAL has won three straight meetings

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon bangs out 70 yards. Burrow throws for 260 yards and two TDs to A.J. Green and Drew Sample. Mark Ingram leads the BAL backfield with 70 yards and a score, while J.K. Dobbins adds 50. Jackson runs for 40 yards and throws for 240, hitting Snead for a touchdown. Ravens, 23-17

Carolina (+1) at Atlanta, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

How 'bout them Panthers? A team that was supposed to be a bottom feeder following the departures of Cam Newton and coach Ron Rivera has instead won consecutive games and could move into a tie for the lead in the NFC South with another one. Coach Matt Rhule has filled his guys with confidence, and it shows up and down the roster — Teddy Bridgewater is playing the best football of his career, the rebuilt offensive line is holding up and while the no-name defense is still fairly vulnerable on the ground and has absolutely no ability to generate a pass rush, the secondary hasn't given up any bombs (Carolina leads the league at 8.8 yards per completion allowed). That could make them a good match for a Falcons offense that seems to do nothing well except produce big plays to Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley, and which falls apart when they get shut down (something the Packers did last week). Granted, the team has also been falling apart even when Matt Ryan and the receivers are posting pinball numbers. The defense has been atrocious — only the Seahawks have allowed more total yards, and only the Cowboys have allowed more points per game, and neither of those facts did the Falcons any good in their losses to those teams. Bill O'Brien may have beaten Dan Quinn to the unemployment line, but Quinn is still neck and neck with Adam Gase to be the next coach sacked. A loss at home to a division rival Atlanta has dominated in recent years might be the last straw, since somehow those back-to-back fourth-quarter collapses against Dallas and Chicago weren't.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: CB Eli Apple (out, hamstring)

ATL injuries: WR Jones (questionable, hamstring)

CAR DFS targets: Teddy Bridgewater $5,900 DK / $7,100 FD (ATL 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in QB rating against)

ATL DFS targets: Todd Gurley $5,700 DK / $6,700 FD (CAR 29th in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

CAR DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is seventh in third-down conversions at 48.9 percent; ATL is 15th in third-down defense at 41.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 ATL, average score 26-19 ATL, average margin of victory 16 points. ATL has won five straight meetings by an average score of 29-13

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Mike Davis piles up 90 combined yards and a score. Bridgewater throws for 280 yards and three TDs, two to D.J. Moore (who tops 100 yards) and one to Robby Anderson. Gurley rumbles for 120 yards and a touchdown. Ryan throws for 270 yards and two scores to Ridley and Ito Smith, but it's once again not enough. Panthers, 31-27

Miami (+9) at San Francisco, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments by coach Brian Flores early this week hinted that it could soon be Tua Time in Miami, but for now, Ryan Fitzpatrick remains in the saddle as the top dog for the Fish. Fitzmagic's been his usual erratic self, putting together two starts with multiple TDs and zero INTs, and two with multiple INTs and zero TDs, and predicting which version of him you get any given week is probably a fool's errand — and Flores is no fool. Miami's bye isn't until Week 11, but expect Tua Tagovailoa to take over under center long before then. A pasting by the Niners might accelerate that schedule, too — San Francisco has limped to a 2-2 start, but with Jimmy Garoppolo likely back in the lineup and the skill players getting healthier as well, a repeat of last week's dud against the Eagles seems unlikely. There are still a lot of key names missing on the defensive side of the ball, however, so even against a squad like Miami, the 49ers might have to settle for winning a shootout rather than completely dominating.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: LT Austin Jackson (IR, foot)

SF injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, knee), WR Deebo Samuel (questionable, illness), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (questionable, hamstring), CB Emmanuel Moseley (out, concussion)

MIA DFS targets: Isaiah Ford $3,500 DK / $4,600 FD (SF 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS targets: Jimmy Garoppolo $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (MIA 32nd in YPA allowed), Jerick McKinnon $5,800 DK / $6,400 FD (MIA 31st in rushing DVOA, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

MIA DFS fades: Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,600 DK / $7,100 FD (SF fourth in QB rating against, first in YPA allowed, second in TD% allowed), Mike Gesicki $5,000 DK / $5,600 FD (SF first in DVOA vs. TE)

SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is t-16th in red-zone conversions at 60.0 percent; SF is seventh in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent, and first in red-zone trips allowed at six through four games

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, 8-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Myles Gaskin manages 60 yards, while Jordan Howard vultures a TD. Fitzpatrick throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice before being replaced by Tagovailoa, who leads a late charge by throwing touchdowns to Ford and DeVante Parker. McKinnon romps for 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, while Mostert adds 70 yards and a touchdown. Garoppolo doesn't need to do much in his return, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Brandon Aiyuk. 49ers, 37-24

N.Y. Giants (+9.5) at Dallas, o/u 54.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's possible this game features a matchup between the worst offense in the NFL and the worst defense. The Giants have miserable numbers in a variety of categories: 30th in yards per play, 32nd in red-zone conversions (20.0 percent!), tied with the Jets for 31st in total yards (yes, they have fewer yards of offense than the Titans and Steelers, who have played one less game), 31st in QB rating, 31st in rushing yards per game and 32nd in points per game at 11.8, four and a half points worse than the 31st-place Jets ... it's a litany of suckitude. On the other hand, the Cowboys are 30th in total yards allowed, 30th in QB rating against, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, and, of course, 32nd in points per game allowed at a massive 36.5. It would be easy enough to split the difference and predict the Giants will score 24 points, but that's not usually how these things work out — more likely, one of the two units will get out-inepted by the other and look like they know what they're doing for an afternoon. On the flip side of the equation, Dak Prescott and his seemingly endless supply of dangerous receivers faces a defense that's been a lot more spirited on the road, giving up only 17 points each to the Bears and Rams in their buildings. The recent track record in this rivalry suggests Dallas won't have too much trouble in this one, but if their defense can't get its act together, Dak could find himself in yet another hole he has to climb out of.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: S Jabrill Peppers (questionable, ankle)

DAL injuries: LT Tyron Smith (out, neck), C Joe Looney (out, knee)

NYG DFS targets: Daniel Jones $5,400 DK / $7,000 FD (DAL 30th in QB rating against, 32nd in TD% allowed)

DAL DFS targets: Ezekiel Elliott $7,800 DK / $9,000 FD (NYG 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), CeeDee Lamb $6,000 DK / $5,900 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS fades: none

DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is 12th in third-down conversions at 45.1 percent; NYG are 32nd in third-down defense at 53.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DAL, average score 25-18 DAL, average margin of victory nine points. DAL has won six straight meetings by an average score of 30-16

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman leads the NYG backfield with 70 yards. Jones throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Darius Slayton and Evan Engram. Elliott steamrolls for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Prescott can take it relatively easy for once, throwing for a season-low 240 yards and scores to Lamb and Tony Pollard. Cowboys, 31-17

Indianapolis at Cleveland (+1.5), o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Is the Colts defense legit? Since getting Minshew'ed in Week 1, Indy's given up a total of 29 points in three games, and in any of the four contests the defense has yet to allow more than 269 yards. To put that in perspective, the Colts' worst performance in total yards allowed is almost 100 yards lower than the league per-game average on offense this year (368.3). It's easy to dismiss those numbers as a product of their schedule, though, as the Jags, Vikings, Jets and Bears are not exactly the cream of the crop when it comes to high-powered attacks. That makes this matchup fascinating — since being stuffed in a locker by the Ravens in Week 1, the Browns have rung up 118 points in their last three games as a dominant running game has taken the pressure off Baker Mayfield to be a star. Unfortunately, that dominant running game just lost Nick Chubb, and while former rushing champ Kareem Hunt should do just fine stepping into the 1A role in the Cleveland backfield, it's not as clear whether guys like D'Ernest Johnson can handle the 1B spot. Then again, the Colts will be without the heart of their defense in Darius Leonard, making it that much easier for the Browns' running game to keep on rolling.

The Skinny

IND injuries: LT Anthony Castonzo (out, ribs), LB Darius Leonard (out, groin), LB Anthony Walker (questionable, ankle)

CLE injuries: RB Chubb (IR, knee), DT Larry Ogunjobi (out, oblique), CB Greedy Williams (out, shoulder), S Karl Joseph (questionable, hamstring)

IND DFS targets: Colts DST $3,300 DK / $4,500 FD (first in INT%)

CLE DFS targets: Browns DST $2,700 DK / $3,800 FD (first in takeaways)

IND DFS fades: Zach Pascal $4,600 DK / $5,300 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2)

CLE DFS fades: Baker Mayfield $5,700 DK / $6,800 FD (IND second in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against, second in YPA allowed)

Key stat: CLE is t-20th in third-down conversions at 40.0 percent; IND is first in third-down defense at 31.1 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 9-10 mph wind, 5-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jonathan Taylor runs for 70 yards, but Nyheim Hines adds 60 combined yards and catches a TD. Philip Rivers throws for 240 yards and two more scores, finding Marcus Johnson and Mo Alie-Cox. Hunt picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Mayfield throws for 260 yards and a TD to Odell Beckham but gets picked off twice. Colts, 24-17 

Minnesota (+7) at Seattle, o/u 57.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The contrarian in me wanted to find an excuse to hit the under, and the weather gods mercifully delivered one, but it's still hard to get away from the idea that this game is going to feature All Of The Scoring. The Vikings' defense is a shadow of its former self, but the offense has been doing just fine with Dalvin Cook leading the league in rushing yards, and Justin Jefferson stepping right into Stefon Diggs' old role. In fact, how's this for a nifty parallel — Jefferson's first two 100-yard performances came in career games No. 3 and 4. Diggs' first two? Career games No. 2 and 3  in 2015. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is setting records and playing like he not only wants this year's MVP award but maybe a couple more retroactively, and the Seahawks' battered secondary is playing like its job is to make sure Russ gets the ball back as quickly as possible. Were it not for the potentially soggy conditions at CenturyLink Field, that would be a recipe for both teams pushing 40 points with 30 as a floor. Instead, it might devolve into a battle of running games or something.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: CB Holton Hill (questionable, foot)

SEA injuries: RB Carlos Hyde (questionable, shoulder), LG Mike Iupati (questionable, knee), S Jamal Adams (out, groin), CB Quinton Dunbar (questionable, knee)

MIN DFS targets: Justin Jefferson $5,500 DK / $5,700 FD (SEA 22nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

SEA DFS targets: Russell Wilson $7,600 DK / $8,600 FD (MIN 31st in YPA allowed), Seahawks DST $2,800 DK / $4,000 FD (t-second in takeaways, MIN 32nd in INT% allowed, 30th in sack rate allowed)

MIN DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is first in red-zone conversions at 86.7 percent; MIN is second in red-zone defense at 41.2 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 60-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook splashes out 90 yards and a score. Kirk Cousins throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Chris Carson rains down 80 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 270 yards and three scores, finding Tyler Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and David Moore once. Seahawks, 30-24

Denver (+5) at New England, o/u 48.5 – Monday, 5 p.m. EDT

Roger Goodell is bad at his job, exhibit #893266732456753. Why is this game now at 5 p.m. on Monday, instead of its original Sunday slot? Because Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore had positive COVID tests, which forced the Pats to stop practicing for a couple days. So instead of punishing the team with the positive tests by giving them less prep time — incidentally, New England has a Week 6 bye, so they couldn't care less when this game gets played — it's the Broncos who now get stuck with a short week after a Monday game. I don't even like the Broncos (long story) and I think that's dumb. At least it's consistent with the way the league is bending over backward to accommodate the Titans' flagrant disregard for a global pandemic, instead of handing the Steelers and Bills forfeit wins and getting on with the season. Sigh. Anyway, the extra day might allow Drew Lock to play, which could help Denver and give them an edge at QB over whichever of Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer is deemed less likely to give Bill Belichick ulcers. New England's offense is likely to revolve around its ground game, though, as Damien Harris banged out 100 yards in his first career start and may have just broken the wheel on the traditional Pats backfield roulette.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: QB Lock (questionable, shoulder), WR KJ Hamler (out, hamstring), TE Noah Fant (doubtful, ankle)

NE injuries: QB Newton (out, COVID), RB Sony Michel (IR, quad), WR Julian Edelman (questionable, knee), LT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, calf), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), CB Gilmore (out, COVID)

DEN DFS targets: Jerry Jeudy $5,400 DK / $5,500 FD (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

NE DFS targets: Patriots DST $4,200 DK / $4,800 FD (t-second in takeaways, DEN 30th in INT% allowed)

DEN DFS fades: none

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is 24th in third-down conversions at 38.0 percent; NE is fourth in third-down defense at 36.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 60-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gordon gains 70 yards and a receiving TD, while a returning Phillip Lindsay picks up 50. Lock throws for 230 yards and a second score to Jeudy. Harris dashes for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Stidham gets the start for NE and looks a little better, throwing for 240 yards and a TD to N'Keal Harry. Patriots, 24-20  

Tampa Bay at Chicago (+3.5), o/u 44.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I know Tom Brady is coming off a huge game, and Thursdays are gonna Thursday in general, but everything about this game points to it being a classic Soldier Field defensive battle between these two 3-1 teams. (Then again, given my record on over/unders this year, it'll probably be a shootout). For one thing, Brady's running out of guys to throw to, as the backfield and receiving corps has been decimated by a spate of lower-body injuries that would make you think Tampa Bay's played a game at MetLife Stadium recently. At this rate, he might have to start looking Rob Gronkowski's way — the year off didn't seem to do the veteran tight end any favors, and he's seen more than three targets in a game only once while posting a Witten-esque 6.3 yards per target. At least the Bucs have a quarterback. The Bears' switch to Nick Foles was a disaster last week, and while coach Matt Nagy was adamant that he wasn't going to flip between QBs all year, if the veteran is only able to move the offense against defenses like Atlanta's, Nagy might have little choice but to give Mitchell Trubisky one more last chance to prove himself. Meanwhile, the two defenses rank in the top 10 in points per game allowed, QB rating against and both third-down and red-zone defense, with the home squad ahead in all four categories.

The Skinny

TB injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (doubtful, ankle), RB LeSean McCoy (out, ankle), WR Mike Evans (questionable, ankle), WR Chris Godwin (out, hamstring), WR Scotty Miller (questionable, hip), WR Justin Watson (out, chest), TE O.J. Howard (IR, Achilles)

CHI injuries: WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, shoulder)

TB DFS targets: Tyler Johnson $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (CHI 24th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CHI DFS targets: Darnell Mooney $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

TB DFS fades: Tom Brady $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI third in QB rating against, first in TD% allowed), Mike Evans $6,600 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI third in DVOA vs. WR1), Scotty Miller $4,500 DK / $5,300 FD (CHI third in DVOA vs. WR2) 

CHI DFS fades: David Montgomery $5,400 DK / $5,800 FD (TB second in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed), Allen Robinson $6,700 DK / $7,100 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: TB is t-12th in third-down conversions at 45.1 percent; CHI is third in third-down defense at 34.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Ronald Jones gains 70 scrimmage yards, while Ke'Shawn Vaughn adds 50. Brady throws for 220 yards and a TD to Cameron Brate. Montgomery grinds out 60 yards and scores. Foles throws for 200 yards and gets sacked for a safety, but he does hit Mooney for a touchdown that proves to be the difference. Bears, 20-15
 

Last week's record: 8-7, 9-5-1 ATS, 4-9-2 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 38-24-1, 32-29-2 ATS, 24-37-2 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 831-506-6, 625-666-52 ATS, 517-548-22 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)