Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 16 Matchups

-When I first posted this I accidentally listed the 49ers WR duo as Upgrade entries but I meant to leave them in the 'Even' category, sorry

This article will go game by game for the Week 16 slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. This post will have to be a little shorter and lean more on speculation/generalities than the entries to come, because teams haven't yet conclusively revealed their personnel tendencies.

Receivers rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formation quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.

Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

PITTSBURGH WIDE RECEIVERS

Who knows what's going on with George Pickens or what might happen with his playing time or usage, but in the meantime he's probably risky despite a good matchup here. Diontae Johnson gets the benefit of the good matchup and maybe escalated usage if Pickens' declines at all. Whether Johnson sees Chidobe Awuzie or D.J. Turner probably doesn't matter too much, but the rookie Turner has struggled lately. If Pickens' usage does not decline then he could very well do damage against Turner, who's extremely athletic but smallish, not to mention regularly out of position lately. Allen Robinson is a lot bigger than Mike Hilton in the slot but was only targeted once last time anyway.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson

CINCINNATI WIDE RECEIVERS

With Ja'Marr Chase out there will be more opportunity (and perhaps defensive attention) for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, who respectively tend to line up on the boundary and in the slot. Outside Higgins finds potentially challenging matchups against Joey Porter and to a lesser extent Patrick Peterson. Peterson isn't very good anymore but he's still big and can run well enough in a straight line, so he can probably handle Higgins vertically and grapple underneath when necessary. Higgins has had some big games against Pittsburgh in the past and the usage projection is good, but he might need to grind a bit in this one and Jake Browning is not a downfield passer. Boyd gets the easier matchup on paper, as the Steelers have just Chandon Sullivan in the slot.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills

CHARGERS WIDE RECEIVERS

Joshua Palmer does not project well for efficiency here but I can't really list him as a downgrade because his target share could be over 30 percent. With that said, guys like Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson all strike me as nightmare matchups for a player with Palmer's traits and tendencies. Palmer's build is neutralized by all three corners, and all three corners are probably at their best in the intermediate depths that Palmer tends to draw his targets within. Quentin Johnston might be the sort of vertical threat to take advantage downfield, but his struggles as a rookie make it difficult to give any benefit of the doubt. The same goes for Jalen Guyton, except for the rookie excuse part.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Jalen Guyton

BUFFALO WIDE RECEIVERS

Stefon Diggs has struggled lately. It's likely no fault of his own – the fact that his ADOT is more than a yard less than last year with no increase in catch rate to show for it likely reflects the fact that the Bills' offense has no way to deter defenses from rolling all their coverage over the top of Diggs, leaving fewer viable downfield targets. None of these Chargers corners can cover him at all, so perhaps this is a setting where the previously mentioned concerns don't apply as much, allowing Diggs to correct his numbers a bit. The Bills offense otherwise for some reason prioritizes usage for Dalton Kincaid and even Dawson Knox on underneath targets, leaving Gabe Davis as a downfield decoy despite his lack of speed to reach those levels. Davis is fully capable of beating these corners, but often times the Bills offense just sends him on pointless journeys elsewhere. Khalil Shakir is getting treated the same way at times.

Upgrade: Stefon Diggs
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir

Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts

ATLANTA WIDE RECEIVERS

The Arthur Smith Show is mercifully nearing its end, but until the curtains close there will be more shenanigans. Perhaps even Arthur can't stop Drake London in this setting – these corners can't cover him – and London overcomes his head coach from time to time. Julius Brents struggled in his return from injury last week but even if it was injury-related rust he's unlikely to be ready to match a wideout like London. Jaylon Jones on the other side is more vulnerable yet. Kenny Moore can be a nuisance in the slot but London should mostly avoid him.

Upgrade: Drake London
Downgrade: N/A
Even: N/A

INDIANAPOLIS WIDE RECEIVERS

If Michael Pittman (concussion) can go then he should see his customary target volume, which is the only detail anyone needs to know about whether to start or sit him. Pittman would likely see AJ Terrell and with that comes the concern of decreased efficiency, but that's not a concern worth weighing with a receiver who gets double-digit targets almost every week. Josh Downs faces Dee Alford in the slot, which is probably just as challenging to Downs as Terrell could possibly be to Pittman. Alec Pierce against Jeff Okudah could be a mismatch – it certainly is in terms of speed. Whether Gardner Minshew can capitalize isn't easy to assume.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers

CAROLINA WIDE RECEIVERS

Adam Thielen is doing an excellent job in difficult conditions this year, and this game might be the most favorable conditions he's seen since something like October. Slot corner Keisean Nixon is a better returner than cover guy, and Thielen has beaten much better this year. DJ Chark is much more capable of beating corners like Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes than Jonathan Mingo is, but David Tepper has ordered the prioritization of Mingo in the team's target rotation, for which the team has been rewarded 5.0 yards per target at a catch rate under 50 percent.

Upgrade: Adam Thielen
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jonathan Mingo, DJ Chark

GREEN BAY WIDE RECEIVERS

Jayden Reed (toe) did not practice all week, which is a major bummer and makes him a game-time decision for this game at best. Christian Watson is doubtful, leaving Dontayvion Wicks as the likely snap leader at receiver for Green Bay. Whether he's the target leader depends on whether and how much Reed plays, but other than Reed it's difficult to anticipate a target threat to Wicks. Malik Heath seems like a good enough candidate and he's definitely next up on the depth chart, but the new variable would be the potential activation of Samori Toure, who was inactive behind practice squadder Bo Melton last week mostly for special teams reasons (Toure doesn't play special teams, Melton does). Whoever lines up for Green Bay will want to avoid Jaycee Horn, though Donte Jackson on the other side is no pushover. It's not the easiest matchup for anyone.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Malik heath, Samori Toure

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns

HOUSTON WIDE RECEIVERS

Nico Collins (calf) appears to be back, and he's an interesting challenge for the Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is very good but is much smaller than Collins, so Collins might be able to make catches even without separation. Martin Emerson has the better build to defend a wideout like Collins, and Emerson is good enough that it might convince the Browns to not shadow Collins with Ward, finding insufficient difference between the two options. Collins' prospects are hurt more by the quarterback situation, as Case Keenum will likely start this game. Noah Brown might also be able to bully Ward a bit but probably won't separate from either of him or Emerson. Robert Woods is completely toast and there's no reason to think he can hold his own against Greg Newsome.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Robert Woods
Even: Nico Collins, Noah Brown

CLEVELAND WIDE RECEIVERS

Amari Cooper will face a challenging matchup with Derek Stingley on one side and Steven Nelson on the other, but it's not worth fretting about. The Browns are almost an Air Raid offense with Joe Flacco, regularly attempting around 45 pass attempts per game. That makes Cooper a strong bet for double-digit targets in any given game, and with that efficiency concerns become close to meaningless. Elijah Moore faces a potential challenge against Desmond King in the slot, but Cedric Tillman against Stingley/Nelson seems worse yet.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman

Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

MINNESOTA WIDE RECEIVERS

This should be a strong setup for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Lions corners are built to pursue and hit rather than cover downfield, and corners like that need a pass rush to save them from receivers like these. Detroit has no such pass rush. Detroit compounds this weakness by deterring the run game with their formidable run defense. Nick Mullens isn't good but he's a turnover liability more than anything. He'll throw the ball downfield, and both Jefferson and Addison should be able to separate in that region. K.J. Osborn was reduced to a two-down player last week, at long last.

Upgrade: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
Downgrade: N/A
Even: K.J. Osborn

DETROIT WIDE RECEIVERS

Amon-Ra St. Brown has a complicated matchup in that slot defender Josh Metellus is limited in coverage, yet St. Brown's strengths might coincide with Metellus' strengths. Metellus is a former safety and it shows – he's much more comfortable underneath and even in traffic than he is turning and running downfield in coverage. St. Brown is great, but he's not a downfield threat. His primary territories are the same where Metellus is at his best, so this might be a bit of a grinding effort for St. Brown rather than one of his more explosive ones. Jameson Williams is the kind of receiver corners like Akayleb Evans and Mekhi Blackmon hate to see, but if they must cover a burner like Williams then they'll find relief in the fact that Jared Goff can't make the throw on routes where Williams is most threatening, or at the depths where Evans/Murphy are most vulnerable. Josh Reynolds has a pretty neutral application.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds

New York Jets vs. Washington Commanders

JETS WIDE RECEIVERS

Washington has no direction to the point that it undermines the few talents they have, even if that talent is at corner. Kendall Fuller and Emmanuel Forbes are both good but it doesn't matter to Garrett Wilson, especially since neither Fuller nor Forbes are at their best in this defense. Even Allen Lazard or Xavier Gipson might find some room here.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Garrett Wilson, Xavier Gipson, Allen Lazard

WASHINGTON WIDE RECEIVERS

Terry McLaurin clearly has lost opportunities because of Sam Howell, and Howell will be starting this game. It's an added complication McLaurin really doesn't need, because the Jets defense is tough and the sort that can probably bring the worst out of a quarterback like Howell. Neither Sauce Gardner nor D.J. Reed can cover McLaurin straight up, but he'll see brackets, which has deterred Howell from throwing to McLaurin all year. Jahan Dotson is largely caught in the same boat. It's been Curtis Samuel who benefits from this trend, and he should also see the easiest coverage in terms of the Jets corner personnel.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson
Even: Curtis Samuel

Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks

TENNESSEE WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins can probably get the better of either of Tariq Woolen or Tre Brown, though the duo has the speed to limit any downfield impact. Woolen can't stop/start that well and Brown is smallish, though, so Hopkins should be able to win on jumpballs like he usually does. Treylon Burks can pose similar dangers but is apparently sick. Guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine need the defense to sort of forget about them.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

SEATTLE WIDE RECEIVERS

The Titans already had trouble covering downfield, and now they're without their top two boundary corners in Sean Murphy-Bunting and Kristian Fulton. Murphy-Bunting in particular is a significant loss because he's the only Titans corner with downfield speed or reach. Slot corner Roger McCreary might need to pick up some of those boundary reps, which don't really suit him given his modest speed and poor reach. Eric Garror played a lot of boundary snaps last week, but he's more of a slot corner by nature. Tre Avery is the replacement corner outside otherwise, and he's a fringe prospect with good athleticism but very short arms. No matter whether it's McCreary, Garror or Avery, whoever is on DK Metcalf is in serious trouble. Whoever is on Tyler Lockett is probably in trouble too, though Metcalf might save that corner by getting open against another one first. Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn't have the traits that most seriously threaten these corners but he's still in a good spot since the Seahawks should be able to move the ball well through the air.

Upgrade: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

TAMPA BAY WIDE RECEIVERS

Tyson Campbell is a good bet to shadow Mike Evans, to uncertain effect. It just clearly makes sense for Jacksonville to keep Evans away from Darious Williams, who at under 5-foot-10 just isn't a fair matchup against the 6-foot-5 Evans. Chris Godwin is a bigger receiver in his own right, but Evans is bigger than some tight ends. Godwin may well be able to bully the smallish Williams, but at least Williams would have a prayer at defending the rim. If Evans does somehow end up against Williams there might not be much the corner can do against a jumpball.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Mike Evans (arguable upgrade if not shadowed by Campbell), Chris Godwin

JACKSONVILLE WIDE RECEIVERS

Carlton Davis is probably too heavy-footed to mirror Calvin Ridley downfield, and Jamel Dean probably lacks the lateral movement to mirror Ridley at almost any level, but the Buccaneers probably have some special measures in mind. The Jaguars offense is static by design, and their lack of pre-snap motion or post-snap variation makes it easy for defenses to design elaborate sell-out measures against certain players. Against Jacksonville the clearly correct approach by a defense is to sell out against Ridley and let the Jaguars spin their wheels with the rest of their pass catchers, ideally one of the wideouts Zay Jones or Parker Washington, and less ideally but more likely Evan Engram. Defenses know you win against Jacksonville by forcing the ball away from Ridley and Engram, and the Jaguars have done little or nothing about it to this point. Todd Bowles isn't a dummy, so either Press Taylor improves his act before this game or the Jaguars likely struggle regardless of whether Trevor Lawrence (concussion) is active. While Jones has struggled for the most part in 2023, Washington is interesting because he has drawn targets at an encouraging rate and draws maybe the easiest matchup of the corners against Christian Izien.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, Parker Washington

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

CHICAGO WIDE RECEIVERS

D.J. Moore is in a great spot here, because the Arizona boundary corners are practice-squad caliber. Even the one promising Cardinals corner – third-round slot man Garrett Williams – will be out for this game. Conditions are so favorable for passing that even guys like Darnell Mooney or Tyler Scott might get a couple decent looks.

Upgrade: D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney
Downgrade: N/A
Even: N/A

ARIZONA WIDE RECEIVERS

Michael Wilson should see the most snaps and specifically the most boundary snaps, meaning he'll primarily see Jaylon Johnson or/and Tyrique Stevenson. Wilson would probably rather see Stevenson, but the same is true of Greg Dortch, who will likely get most of the boundary snaps opposite Wilson. Stevenson is an easier target than Johnson, but it's not clear whether the Bears will deploy Johnson in a shadow role nor which of Wilson or Dortch they would get the assignment if so. Rondale Moore should mostly run against Kyler Gordon but Moore's ongoing invisibility make it difficult to see anything positive.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Michael Wilson (downgrade if shadowed by Johnson), Greg Dortch (see Wilson), Rondale Moore

Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys

MIAMI WIDE RECEIVERS

Tyreek Hill practiced twice to end the week, which hopefully means he's well clear of a high ankle sprain and merely has some swelling to ice down until Sunday, at which point hopefully the ankle would just need some pain management rather than workload management. That would perhaps limit the fantasy upside of Jaylen Waddle, who reminded last week that he's an elite wideout in his own right, but it could just as easily be that Miami will need both wideouts to produce in this setting. Neither receiver has matchup corners against the corners. Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland are clearly productive players for the Dallas scheme, but they can't cover Hill or Waddle. They need scheme support and an effective pass rush, at which point they become effective because they don't need to do much of the 'run' part in bump-and-run coverage. The Dolphins passing game generally functions without requiring deep drops or delayed throws. If the pass rush can't intervene then I don't know how the Dallas defense slows either wideout.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

DALLAS WIDE RECEIVERS

Vic Fangio might be saving some tricks for a game like this, and Dak Prescott has at times shown a tendency to fall into pre-snap traps. Prescott also has to worry about his blocking, because left tackle Tyron Smith is out and right guard Zack Martin is questionable with a bludgeoned quadriceps after not practicing most of the week. Christian Wilkins is not a player you want rushing your backup guard. With all of these potential stressors noted, CeeDee Lamb should be okay. He can definitely beat slot corner Kader Kohou all day, and even if Fangio trips up Prescott, Lamb's target share and constant pre-snap movement give him a good projection so long as Prescott gets to something like 220 yards passing. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup are probably the better bets to suffer if Prescott struggles, if only because they'll have to see more of Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, both of whom rapidly improve the better the pass rush gets.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

DENVER WIDE RECEIVERS

Courtland Sutton might be the primary focus of Bill Belichick's scheming in this one, but it's not clear how much the Patriots can do about it. Generally the Broncos offense tries to arrange the tradeoff between defending the (constant) run calls that give cover to Russell Wilson and defending Sutton downfield. Wilson waits for the favorable look at tosses a jumpball if necessary, and unless you have at least one big defender on Sutton he's probably coming down with that ball. The way the Patriots can slow Sutton is if they can find a way to double Sutton without ceding anything on the ground. The Patriots run defense is good enough that they might pull it off – if anyone can stop the run without trying to it's them. Jerry Jeudy could stand to benefit if the Patriots stop both Sutton and the run, though a guy like Jonathan Jones could be a challenging cover. Myles Bryant is who Jeudy wants to see instead.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy

NEW ENGLAND WIDE RECEIVERS

DeVante Parker seems to be the preferred target of Bailey Zappe, which is maybe the most relevant point about this matchup. Zappe can only put the ball so many places, and part of him targeting Parker so often is probably just for practical reasons rather than target preference. There's a chance Parker sees an assignment from Patrick Surtain, but Zappe better hope that doesn't happen. JuJu Smith-Schuster knows a thing or two about routes but has no wheels at this point, so the Broncos would be fine cutting him loose. Demario Douglas is more of a threat, and is a particularly good candidate to retake the WR1 role in this game if Parker gets Surtain.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: DeVante Parker, Demario Douglas (arguable Upgrade if Parker is shadowed by Surtain, JuJu Smith-Schuster)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

KANSAS CITY WIDE RECEIVERS

Rashee Rice unfortunately draws Nate Hobbs – the toughest part of the Las Vegas secondary – but Rice might be good enough/the Chiefs might be dependent enough on Rice that the matchup might not be a substantive concern. The Chiefs could really use Mecole Hardman and his downfield speed, but Andy Reid has yet to get bored with Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling getting jammed up constantly.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson

LAS VEGAS WIDE RECEIVERS

Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers don't have the greatest setup here, despite their obviously standout abilities. The Chiefs have wasted enough of their season that they need to take this game seriously, and Arrowhead Stadium tends to bring the worst out from quarterbacks who lack standout arm strength. Aidan O'Connell doesn't really clear the bar. Between the uncharitable environment and a L'Jarius Sneed double-team, the Chiefs can probably make this a challenge for Adams. Trent McDuffie might be able to hold his own or at least contain the damage by Meyers even without a safety.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

PHILADELPHIA WIDE RECEIVERS

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should be fine here, but there's no doubt that (A) the Eagles really need to get their act together and (B) the Giants defense and its pass defense specifically are much better now than they were in the first couple months of the year. Deonte Banks on the boundary might be the easiest target – the super-toolsy rookie drew a lot of flags to start the year and probably remains a liability as far as that goes – because Adoree' Jackson doesn't tend to give up much separation on the other side. To me it makes sense to target Banks with Smith and his precise route running, while Brown makes more sense against the smallish Jackson, who would be helpless against Brown in contested catch situations. Slot guy Cor'Dale Flott isn't a liability exactly but also probably can't stand up to Brown at the rim.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith

GIANTS WIDE RECEIVERS

Darius Slayton won't face his almost name-doppelganger (Darius Slay), which is good for Slayton, but it's possible backup Kelee Ringo can stall Slayton on go routes. On anything else, including double moves, Slayton probably has the upper hand. Same goes with Jalin Hyatt, though one of the two boundary wideouts will have to catch James Bradberry on a given play. Bradberry needs to be very careful against speed like Slayton and Hyatt have, but he's still probably a tougher matchup than Ringo at the moment. Bradley Roby should be able to keep things under control against Wan'Dale Robinson.

Upgrade: Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Wan'Dale Robinson

San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens

SAN FRANCISCO WIDE RECEIVERS

Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will mostly trade off looks with Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens, both of whom are generally good trait matches to the receivers. Aiyuk and Samuel are big and fast, which gives them trait advantages over a lot of corners, but the Ravens' duo neutralize that particular aspect. The question is whether Humphrey and Stephens can match the skill variable, though part of their fortunes here depend on withstanding Kyle Shanahan's scheming, which helps keep Samuel and Aiyuk in advantageous positions. The two wideouts will both might also see Kyle Hamilton a few times, but to a much lesser extent. That might be for the better, from San Francisco's point of view.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel

BALTIMORE WIDE RECEIVERS

Charvarius Ward is one of the league's top corners on the outside. Deommodore Lenoir (slot) and Ambry Thomas (boundary) fall well short of that, but with those three the 49ers have found their optimal loadout at corner. Ward rarely needs help, which allows the 49ers to limit the exposure of the other two as they continue to develop. To beat the 49ers pass defense you need to either beat Ward, like Jordan Addison did in Kirk Cousins' big game against San Francisco earlier this year, or you need to find a way to draw Lenoir or/and Thomas out from the shelter they're given. I would speculate that if healthy Odell Beckham (illness) can beat Ward if Lamar Jackson has enough time for Beckham to run the route (far from guaranteed). If Beckham can't beat Ward then the Ravens need either Zay Flowers to beat Ward (unlikely) or to get Flowers one on one against either of Lenoir or Thomas (possible but not easy). This is setting up like a strength vs. strength matchup, but it's just as likely one where the 49ers have at least a slight overall advantage, anyway.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers