NFL Game Previews: Week 13 Matchups

Minnesota (+3) at Seattle, 50.0 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Just a notch below the Niners-Ravens tilt Sunday afternoon in anticipation is this one, as the 8-3 Vikings face the 9-2 Seahawks in a game that could wind up deciding who goes to Dallas or Philly and who goes to Green Bay if both teams end up with wild-card spots. Minnesota's won six of seven after a shaky start, but surprisingly it's been OC Kevin Stefanski's offense, and not Mike Zimmer's defense, that's led the way. Kirk Cousins has a dazzling 12:0 TD:INT over the last five games with an 8.4 YPA and 71.5 percent completion rate – numbers he's compiled while getting only 16 snaps out of Adam Thielen – while Dalvin Cook remains just behind Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb in the race for the NFL rushing crown. For their part, the Seahawks have won four straight and seven of eight while handing San Francisco its only loss, which isn't too bad. Russell Wilson is in what qualifies as a slump for him, which means he's been picked off in two consecutive games, but the only thing standing between him and the MVP award seems to be Lamar Jackson. Wilson's 24:3 TD:INT on the year remains outstanding, and he's having a career season despite a backfield that features one RB who can't hang onto the ball, and another who can't pass protect. It runs contrary to their reputations, but this game features real prime-time shootout potential.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: WR Thielen (questionable, hamstring), RG Josh Kline (questionable, concussion), DE Everson Griffen (questionable, knee), S Harrison Smith (questionable, hamstring)

SEA injuries: WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, illness/shin), TE Jacob Hollister (questionable, toe), LT Duane Brown (questionable, biceps), LG Mike Iupati (questionable, neck), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, groin), DT Jarran Reed (questionable, ankle)

MIN DFS chalk: none

SEA DFS chalk: none

MIN DFS tournament plays: none

SEA DFS tournament plays: Seahawks DST (SEA third in takeaways)

Key stat: MIN is ninth in third-down offense at 43.9 percent; SEA is ninth in third-down defense at 35.2 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Cook busts out for 110 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 280 yards and TDs to Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. Chris Carson leads the SEA backfield with 70 yards, while Rashaad Penny adds 50 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting DK Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) twice and Josh Gordon for his first Seattle touchdown. Seahawks 31-27

Tennessee (+2.5) at Indianapolis, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Derrick Henry is in freight train mode again, piling up 347 rushing yards and four TDs over the last two games, sandwiched around the Titans' bye. The team's offense has looked better all around with Ryan Tannehill under center, but when Henry is in overdrive, they don't need to throw much. Tannehill's attempted fewer than 20 passes in both those games, although he has managed a 4:0 TD:INT. They'll need all that momentum heading into a clash with their nemeses. The Colts have routinely spanked the Titans over the last decade-plus – since Christmas 2008, Indy's record against Tennessee is an incredible 19-3 – and while the traditional quarterback disparity is no longer a thing between these franchises, that didn't change the outcome in Week 2. The Colts are reeling on offense, though, with T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Eric Ebron all out of action. Jonathan Williams has been a more than adequate replacement in the backfield, and Zach Pascal had flashes on occasion as the No. 1 WR, but at some point having that much talent on the sidelined should catch up to them. Whether that happens this week, against an opponent they've been able to beat in their sleep, is another question.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: TE Delanie Walker (IR, ankle)

IND injuries: RB Mack (out, hand), WR Hilton (out, calf), TE Ebron (IR, ankle)

TEN DFS chalk: none

IND DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS tournament plays: none

IND DFS tournament plays: Chester Rogers (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Colts DST (TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)

Key stat: TEN is first in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 72.4 percent (21-for-29) on RZ possessions; IND is ninth in red-zone defense at 48.4 percent (15-for-31)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 IND, average score 29-21 IND, average margin of victory 12 points. IND has won three straight meetings.

Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop 

Henry rumbles for 70 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries. Williams manages 60 yards and a score, while Nyheim Hines adds 50 combined yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Jack Doyle. Titans, 24-14
 

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (+3.5), 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's too late to make any kind of playoff push, but the Jets have looked like more than doorstops during their three-game winning streak. Sam Darnold has thrown for nearly 280 yards a game with a 7:1 TD:INT and 9.4 YPA during that stretch, and while quality of opposition has to be taken into account, beating the likes of Washington and the Giants is good practice for a game with the Bengals. Cincy coach Zac Taylor has seen enough of Ryan Finley and is turning back to Andy Dalton, but the team was 0-8 before the Red Rifle got shelved, so this isn't exactly the return of a conquering hero. A.J. Green still isn't practicing either, so there will be no help coming on that front. With Dalton moving back into the starting lineup and Thanksgiving having come and gone, I'm also legally obligated to reference the single greatest diss in NFL history. Looking back on it now, I'm not sure what's funnier, J.J. Watt's initial Red Ryder BB Gun crack, or Dalton's painfully thin-skinned overreaction. You can watch him transform into a corn cob in real time. It's amazing.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, hamstring), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), LG Alex Lewis (questionable, elbow), RT Chuma Edoga (out, knee)

CIN injuries: WR Green (out, ankle), LB Nick Vigil (questionable, ankle)

NYJ DFS chalk: Le'Veon Bell (CIN 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CIN DFS chalk: none

NYJ DFS tournament plays: Sam Darnold (CIN 32nd in YPA allowed), Robby Anderson (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws), Ryan Griffin (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Jets DST (CIN 31st in points per game, t-29th in giveaways)

CIN DFS tournament plays: Bengals DST (NYJ 31st in sack percentage allowed)

Key stat: CIN is averaging 15.5 points a game with Dalton at QB

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, 14 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Bell pops for a season-high 140 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Darnold throws for 260 yards and two more TDs to Anderson and Griffin. Joe Mixon gains 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Dalton throws for 280 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Boyd. Jets 31-22
 

Washington (+10) at Carolina, 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Well, how about that? The Lions gifted Dwayne Haskins his first career win in Week 12, even though the rookie QB didn't manage to produce a touchdown – three Jeff Driskel INTs and a 91-yard kickoff return by Steven Sims did the trick. Haskins has a 6.0 YPA and 2:2 TD:INT in his three starts, but with Washington in a dogfight with the Dolphins and Giants for the second overall pick in next year's draft (assuming the Bengals cruise to the top spot), there's no way interim coach Bill Callahan is going to be allowed to switch back to the marginally more competent Case Keenum. The Panthers have disappeared from the BFC playoff picture thanks to three straight losses, and the bloom is definitely off Kyle Allen's rose. Over his last five starts, he's got a 6:9 TD:INT and 6.5 YPA, and the team's lackluster performance is probably sabotaging any chance Christian McCaffrey has of becoming the NFL MVP in addition to the fantasy MVP. In those same five games, CMac has kept the offense afloat with 786 scrimmage yards and seven TDs.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (questionable, toe), WR Paul Richardson (out, hamstring), LB Ryan Kerrigan (out, concussion)

CAR injuries: LT Greg Little (doubtful, ankle), RT Taylor Moton (questionable, knee), S Eric Reid (questionable, ankle)

WAS DFS chalk: none

CAR DFS chalk: Panthers DST (WAS 32nd in points per game, CAR second in sack percentage)

WAS DFS tournament plays: Derrius Guice / Adrian Peterson (CAR 30th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in rushing DVOA)

CAR DFS tournament plays: Curtis Samuel (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Greg Olsen (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: WAS is dead last in the league in red-zone offense (7-for-22, 31.8 percent), red-zone defense (21-for-32, 65.6 percent) and third-down defense (48.4 percent).

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 14-15 mph wind, 0-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Guice leads the WAS backfield with 80 yards. Haskins throws for under 200 yards. McCaffrey gallops for 150 combined yards and two TDs. Allen throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Samuel and Olsen. Panthers 31-9
 

San Francisco (+6) at Baltimore, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The week's marquee matchup and potential Super Bowl preview sees the 10-1 Niners and their dominant defense head east to face the one offense no one has been able to really solve yet. Their track record containing mobile QBs isn't great – Kyler Murray dashed for 67 yards and a TD in his second game against them this year – so if Lamar Jackson does his thing, it's going to fall to Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco backfield committee to try and keep pace. That's not out of the question, especially with George Kittle back in the lineup. Jimmy G has a 13:4 TD:INT over the last five games, posting a YPA of 8.0 or better in four of them while averaging better than 280 yards a game. The 9-2 Ravens are in some kind of zone, though. They've won seven straight, and the last three games have featured a jaw-dropping display of dominance, with Baltimore winning by an average score of 45-9. Those results aren't coming against scrubs either, as two of those routs came against the Rams and Texans. In fact, while Jackson deservedly gets lots of credit for their success, it's defensive coordinator Don Martindale's unit that's really been the best predictor of the team's success – they're 9-0 when allowing 23 points or less, and 0-2 when they give up more than 23. The Niners have scored more than 23 in five straight games, and nine of 11 games overall this year. Given the likely weather conditions, though, it could be tough for either offense to light it up.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Matt Breida (questionable, ankle), LT Joe Staley (questionable, finger), DE Dee Ford (out, hamstring)

BAL injuries: C Bradley Bozeman (questionable, ankle)

SF DFS chalk: none

BAL DFS chalk: none

SF DFS tournament plays: 49ers DST (SF second in points per game allowed, fourth in takeaways, first in sack percentage)

BAL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: BAL is first in third-down offense at 50.4 percent; SF is second in third-down defense at 27.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, 7-10 mph wind, 85-95 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Tevin Coleman gains 60 yards. Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and TDs to Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Mark Ingram rushed for 80 yards and a score. Jackson throws for under 200 yards but runs for 80 yards and a TD, and hits Marquise Brown for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. Ravens 21-16
 

Tampa Bay (+1) at Jacksonville, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Fun fact: the Buccaneers have scored 30 or points in a game five times this year, something only the Saints (seven times), Ravens, Niners, Patriots and Cowboys (all at six) have done more often. Those other five teams are undefeated when their offense goes off, a combined 31-0. Tampa's 3-2. Jameis Winston's tossed multiple picks in six different games this year, although the team has come out on top two of the last three times he's done it, so maybe the Bucs are figuring out how to climb out of the holes he keeps digging. As long as Winston is chucking it, though, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are threats for huge performances, if not at the same time. A three-game losing streak has chained the Jags to the bottom of the AFC South, and Nick Foles' return from IR hasn't turned their season around. A game against Tampa's secondary offers a great opportunity to get right, but if the veteran QB struggles to move the ball facing this secondary, it might be time for Doug Marrone to hand the ball back to Gardner Minshew and think about 2020. At least Leonard Fournette finally figured out the thick white line with the two orange pylons at either end didn't indicate the presence of some sort of force field, and he was allowed to cross it.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Scott Miller (out, hamstring)

JAC injuries: LB Myles Jack (questionable, knee), S Ronnie Harrison (out, concussion)

TB DFS chalk: Ronald Jones (JAC 32nd in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)

JAC DFS chalk: none

TB DFS tournament plays: Peyton Barber (see Jones)

JAC DFS tournament plays: Nick Foles (TB 31st in passing yards per game allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Dede Westbrook (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), D.J. Chark / Chris Conley (TB 31st in DVOA against deep throws), Jaguars DST (TB 32nd in giveaways)

Key stat: TB is 3-3 when they commit two turnovers or fewer as a team, and 1-4 when they commit three or more

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 70s, 16-19 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Jones racks up 70 scrimmage yards. Winston throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Godwin (who tops 100 yards), but gets picked off twice, one of which Andrew Wingard returns to the house. Fournette pounds out 80 yards. Foles throws for 280 yards and a score to Westbrook. Jaguars 23-13
 

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (+2), 39.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If this were a boxing match, it would be promoted as the War on the North Shore. Two weeks after the last meeting between these teams ended in a brawl that produced $732,422 worth of fines and multiple suspensions, they'll go at it again. Usually, games in the immediate aftermath of an incident like that tend to be tamer, as the refs want to keep a tight rein on things and players don't want to end up in the doghouse by taking stupid penalties, but stupid penalties have been one of the Browns' hallmarks all year, so why change now? With the second wild-card spot in the AFC still wide open, this is arguably a must-win game for both clubs as well. Cleveland's won three straight, largely due to Baker Mayfield getting his act together. He's thrown for multiple TDs three times this year, and it's been in those three wins. His 7:1 TD:INT over that stretch is sharp, and with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt co-existing nicely in the backfield, the Browns offense is starting to look the way everyone expected it to back in the summer. The defense won't get a chance to take revenge on Mason Rudolph for whatever it was he said that sent Myles Garrett into a helmet-swinging rage, though. Rudolph's out and Devlin Hodges is in as Pittsburgh's quarterback, with coach Mike Tomlin's "I expect him not to kill us" comment when asked what he though he'd get out of his new QB not exactly reflecting well on Rudolph's tenure as the starter. Hopefully Duck Hodges will be able to get the Steelers offense out of reverse, but his chances of success aren't going to be boosted by the injuries to James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: LT Greg Robinson (questionable, concussion), DE Garrett (out, suspension), DE Olivier Vernon (questionable, knee)

PIT injuries: RB Conner (doubtful, shoulder), WR Smith-Schuster (out, knee), C Maurkice Pouncey (out, suspension)

CLE DFS chalk: none

PIT DFS chalk: none

CLE DFS tournament plays: Rashard Higgins (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS tournament plays: Steelers DST (PIT second in takeaways, fourth in sack percentage)

Key stat: CLE is 27th in third-down offense at 33.1 percent; PIT is t-11th in third-down defense at 36.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-2-1 PIT, average score 24-19 PIT, average margin of victory 10 points. CLE's 21-7 win in Week 11 was their first victory in the rivalry since Week 6 of 2014.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Chubb leads the CLE backfield with 80 combined yards and a TD, while Hunt adds 50 yards. Mayfield throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Jarvis Landry. Benny Snell paces the PIT backfield with 70 yards and a score. Hodges doesn't kill Pittsburgh, throwing for under 200 yards and a TD to James Washington. Steelers 19-14
 

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (+6.5), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Packers remain in a dogfight with the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC North, and with Green Bay having won the first meeting, their Week 16 rematch in Minnesota could have massive playoff implications. Between then and now, Aaron Rodgers' squad gets to face the dregs of the NFC East and the Bears while the Vikes get Seattle, Detroit and the Bolts, so advantage Packers. In fact, their toughest opponent this week might not be Giants, but the miserable weather at MetLife Stadium – not that a team that calls Lambeau home should be phased by cold, wet conditions. While Matt LaFleur's arrival has done wonders for Green Bay's running backs, Rodgers has been stuck in a massive rut, throwing for a total of 498 yards with a 2:0 TD:INT over the last three games. Good thing he's facing a secondary that can get the opposition quarterback's numbers healthy in a hurry. New York got Sterling Shepard back last week only to lose Golden Tate again, but since the two are basically the same player, it's probably for the best. The offense will continue to be in the hands of Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones, and while the former hasn't come close to matching his rookie campaign, Jones has started to turn things around in his. The QB has an 11:1 TD:INT over his last four games, and while there are still plenty of rough edges in his game to iron out, playing relatively mistake-free football is a very good sign for the future.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, knee)

NYG injuries: WR Tate (out, concussion), TE Evan Engram (out, foot), S Jabrill Peppers (out, back)

GB DFS chalk: Davante Adams (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

NYG DFS chalk: none

GB DFS tournament plays: Aaron Rodgers (NYG 31st in YPA allowed), Aaron Jones / Jamaal Williams (NYG t-28th in rushing TDs allowed), Geronimo Allison (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Packers DST (NYG 31st in giveaways)

NYG DFS tournament plays: Barkley (GB t-28th in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: GB is third in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 67.6 percent (25-for-37) of RZ possessions; NYG are seventh in red-zone defense at 47.2 percent (17-for-36)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 10-11 mph wind, 40-80 percent chance of rain/snow

The Scoop

Jones leads the GB backfield with 80 combined yards and a TD, while Williams adds 60 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and a score to Adams. Barkley gains 100 combined yards and touchdown. Jones throws for under 200 yards but runs in a score of his own. Packers 24-16
 

Philadelphia at Miami (+10), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Eagles suddenly have a lot to be thankful for. Despite their lackluster play this season, Dallas' loss to Buffalo on Thursday opens the door for them to move into a tie atop the NFC East, and arguably would make them the favorite to take the crown given their remaining schedule (MIA, WAS and two against NYG, in addition to a Week 16 rematch with DAL). Carson Wentz will probably need to wake up for them to get over the hump, though. He hasn't thrown multiple TDs or topped 260 passing yards in a game since Week 6, so a trip to sunny south Florida and a tilt against the tattered remnants of the Dolphins' secondary could be just what he needs. Miami's tank job has arguably gone horribly awry, as the Bengals have been decidedly worse and at two wins, the Fish aren't even guaranteed a top-three pick in 2020 right now. Heck, one more untimely victory and they might might drop out of the top five. The Ryan Fitzpatrick bubble hasn't burst yet, and the 37-year-old has even tied his career high with three rushing TDs on the year to supplement his 10:10 TD:INT. With something vaguely resembling stability under center, DeVante Parker is thriving and Mike Gesicki is flashing his upside. Now if only they had a running back who didn't make "three yards and a cloud of dust" seem like Hall of Fame-level production.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Jordan Howard (questionable, shoulder), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, hamstring)

MIA injuries: none

PHI DFS chalk: Miles Sanders (MIA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS chalk: none

PHI DFS tournament plays: Carson Wentz (MIA t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Alshon Jeffery (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Eagles DST (MIA 30th in points per game, t-29th in giveaways, 30th in sack percentage allowed)

MIA DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: PHI is seventh in third-down offense at 45.0 percent; MIA is 26th in third-down defense at 43.8 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Sanders busts out for 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Wentz throws for 270 yards and three TDs, two to Jeffery and one to Dallas Goedert. Myles Gaskin leads the MIA backfield with 30 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Parker and Allen Hurns. Eagles 31-20
 

L.A. Rams at Arizona (+3), 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Last week's thumping at the hands of the Ravens may have put the final nail in the Rams' coffin for 2019. That's a harsh thing to say about a 6-5 team, but the reality is they're all but eliminated in their division, and sit two games back of the second wild-card spot in the conference. Barring a late collapse by the Vikings or Seahawks, they'll be staying home come playoff time. Jared Goff does have the band back together when it comes to his wideouts, but the QB himself has looked lost without a map app on his phone. He hasn't thrown a single TD pass since the Rams' bye, posting an unfathomable 0:5 TD:INT over the last three games with a 6.5 YPC that's nearly two full yards lower than his performance last year in that category. The league has clearly figured out this offense – Sean McVay and Goff need to find a way to respond, or the best years of Aaron Donald's career could go to waste. The Cards have lost four straight, but the offense continues to be dangerous, especially with Kenyan Drake stepping into the lead RB role in place of David Johnson – although with Chase Edmonds now healthy again, there could be more mouths to feed in the backfield than touches to go around. The issue for Arizona has been a defense that's surrendered at least 28 points in every game during the current losing streak.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: TE Gerald Everett (out, knee), RT Rob Havenstein (out, knee)

ARI injuries: QB Kyler Murray (questionable, hamstring)

LAR DFS chalk: Todd Gurley (ARI 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

ARI DFS chalk: none

LAR DFS tournament plays: Goff (ARI 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Brandin Cooks (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Tyler Higbee (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: ARI is 29th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 38.7 percent (14-for-28) of RZ possessions; LAR are 27th in red-zone defense at 63.2 percent (24-for-38)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 LAR, average score 20-17, average margin of victory 20 points. That's not a typo – only three of the last 10 meetings have been decided by less than 16 points, with the average score of the last five games being 35-6. LAR have won four straight meetings.

Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop

Gurley carves out 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Goff throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Higbee and Cooper Kupp. Drake responds with 80 yards and a score. Murray throws for 240 yards and TDs to Christian Kirk and Edmonds, while Pharoh Cooper returns a kickoff to the house against his former club to keep it close. Rams 30-28
 

L.A. Chargers at Denver (+3), 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Chargers' usual second-half surge has fizzled with consecutive losses to the Raiders and Chiefs, but coming out of their bye they're still on the fringes of the playoff picture in the AFC. Philip Rivers probably needed the time off. Seven picks in those two losses account for half his total on the year, and while it might be premature to say the 37-year-old is reaching the end of the road on his impressive career, he has looked a little slow on the trigger lately – he can still make the reads, but he's getting the ball to his target a half-second later than he needs to. That's a troubling trend to take into a battle with the Broncos' secondary, who rank fifth in passing yards per game allowed and sixth in YPA allowed. It's not yet clear who Denver will be sending out at QB against Rivers, although with Brandon Allen coming off an absolutely terrible performance against the Bills and Drew Lock reportedly coming off IR, the odds of the Lock making his first NFL start seem pretty high. The rookie has a surprisingly robust array of weapons at his disposal for a team that ranks in the bottom four in points scored – Courtland Sutton is a legit No. 1 WR, Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have the makings of a solid RB duo, and players like Noah Fant and Tim Patrick have shown glimpses of their upside. Getting someone under center who can actually make the most of that group – and if his mechanics and footwork have improved since college, Lock certainly has the arm strength to do it – could allow the Broncos to play spoiler down the stretch.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: LT Russell Okung (questionable, groin), RT Sam Tevis (questionable, knee)

DEN injuries: RT Ja'Wuan James (questionable, knee), LB Von Miller (questionable, knee), LB Alexander Johnson (questionable, knee)

LAC DFS chalk: none

DEN DFS chalk: none

LAC DFS tournament plays: Chargers DST (DEN 29th in points per game)

DEN DFS tournament plays: Lindsay / Freeman (LAC 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: LAC are 26th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 47.5 percent (19-for-40) of RZ possessions; DEN is second in red-zone defense at 40.6 percent (13-for-32) 

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DEN, average score 20-18 DEN, average margin of victory 10 points. Only two of the last eight meetings have been decided by more than one score.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Melvin Gordon bangs out 70 yards, while Austin Ekeler adds 40. Rivers throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. Lindsay leads the DEN backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving score. Lock starts and looks good, throwing for 250 yards and two more touchdowns to Sutton and Patrick. Broncos 24-23
 

Oakland (+10) at Kansas City, 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Oakland's no-show against the Jets cost them a huge opportunity to move into a tie with the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West, but they'll get a chance for redemption here. The offense is showing major signs of regression though, and arguably scoring only 17 points at home against the Bengals was a worse performance than last week's lone field goal in MetLife Stadium. When the unit was humming earlier in the year, Derek Carr was focusing primarily on getting the ball to Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams, with teams paying more attention to the young tight end in particular, Carr hasn't found much chemistry with anyone else aside from slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, who's now out of action due to a broken rib and punctured lung. Someone will need to step up if the Raiders are going to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes, a feat they failed to accomplish back in Week 2's 28-10 loss. Coming out of the Chiefs' bye, Mahomes should be primed and ready to make up for his lackluster numbers in Mexico City in Week 11, and his numbers in that earlier victory – 443 passing yards, 4:0 TD:INT, 10.1 YPA – came without Tyreek Hill available. In fact, Mahomes has torn Oakland apart so far in his brief career, posting a ridiculous QB rating of 122.3 through three games against them. This one could get out of hand quickly.

The Skinny

OAK injuries: WR Renfrow (out, ribs), RT Trent Brown (questionable, knee), LB Vontaze Burfict (out, suspension)

KC injuries: RB Damien Williams (out, ribs)

OAK DFS chalk: Josh Jacobs (KC 31st in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in rushing DVOA)

KC DFS chalk: Mahomes (OAK t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Hill (OAK 29th in DVOA vs. WR1, 30th in DVOA against deep throws)

OAK DFS tournament plays: none

KC DFS tournament plays: LeSean McCoy / Darrel Williams (OAK 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Sammy Watkins (OAK 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th in DVOA against deep throws), Demarcus Robinson (OAK 30th in DVOA against deep throws)

Key stat: KC is fifth in third-down offense at 45.3 percent; OAK is 23rd in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 KC, average score 29-17 KC, average margin of victory 12 points. KC has won four straight meetings.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, 18-20 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Jacobs gains 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Carr throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Zay Jones. Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 70 yards and a score, while McCoy adds 60 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) twice and Watkins once. Chiefs 35-20
 

New England at Houston (+3.5), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

While the pesky Bills won't go away in the AFC East, the Pats don't seem to have much to worry about other than a potential postseason rematch with the Ravens. The defense remains excellent, with the Cowboys being their latest victims, and other than Baltimore nobody's been able to score more than 14 against them all year. That's good, because Tom Brady and the offense still aren't clicking. Brady's 5:3 TD:INT over the last six games is mediocre at best, and while a banged-up receiving corps hasn't helped, the guy is 42 years old. Cut him some slack – his arm isn't what it was a decade ago. Houston's hold on the AFC South lead may be somewhat tenuous, but they have won three of four (with the only loss coming against, hmm, the Ravens) even after losing J.J. Watt for the year. Deshaun Watson hasn't had a truly eye-popping performance in a while, but with a healthy Will Fuller back he could just be saving his best for last this season – the Texans face the Titans twice in the last three weeks, games which loom as potentially crucial for both clubs. Of course, a big night here would make a big statement heading into the stretch run, and despite New England's defensive dominance so far, it's not out of the question given the bug that seems to be running through the Pats' locker room.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR Julian Edelman (questionable, shoulder), WR Mohamed Sanu (questionable, ankle), WR Phillip Dorsett (questionable, concussion), RT Marcus Cannon (questionable, illness), LB Jamie Collins (questionable, illness), CB Stephon Gilmore (questionable, illness), S Patrick Chung (questionable, heel)

HOU injuries: RT Tytus Howard (doubtful, knee)

NE DFS chalk: Patriots DST (NE first in points per game allowed, first in takeaways, third in sack percentage)

HOU DFS chalk: none

NE DFS tournament plays: N'Keal Harry (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

HOU DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: HOU is sixth in third-down offense at 45.1 percent; NE is first in third-down defense at 18.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Sony Michel grinds out 70 yards and a TD, while James White adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Brady throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Edelman. Carlos Hyde manages only 50 yards. Watson is held in check, throwing for 230 yards and a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. Patriots 21-13
 

Chicago at Detroit (+4), 37.0 o/u – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Bears have won two of their last three, but that seems more due to the teams they faced than any big turnaround on their part. Mitchell Trubisky continues to struggle — his best YPA this season in a game is 7.5, a mark that would only rank 14th in the league if it was his average — and the team hasn't topped 20 points since a Week 7 loss to the Saints. David Montgomery also hasn't been able to sustain his midseason breakout, failing to record more than 60 scrimmage yards or score a TD in any of the last three games, but it's hard to tell whether that's due to his own limitations or to facing defenses that can stack the box with impunity. Tough a time as the Chicago offense is having, though, Detroit may end up having to start their third-string quarterback and second-string center in this one, which would be a recipe for chaos. Matthew Stafford remains out (and frankly, I'm still skeptical he'll play against in 2019) and No. 2 QB Jeff Driskel strained his hamstring in last week's loss to ... Washington? Sheesh. If Driskel's ruled out, it would leave the job in the hands of undrafted rookie David Blough. The club traded for him right after (checks notes) he threw two picks against the Lions in a preseason game. Maybe they figured he had an affinity for getting the ball to guys in blue and silver? Blough's a complete wild card, and you could do worse than having Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones to toss it to in your first career NFL start, but Detroit OC Darrell Bevell might not be able to take pressure off the kid via the running game — the Bears' defense remains stout on the ground, ranking third in YPC allowed (3.7).

The Skinny

CHI injuries: WR Taylor Gabriel (out, concussion), TE Adam Shaheen (out, foot), RT Bobby Massie (out, ankle), LB Danny Trevathan (out, elbow)

DET injuries: QB Stafford (doubtful, back), QB Driskel (questionable, hamstring), TE T.J. Hockenson (questionable, shoulder), C Frank Ragnow (questionable, concussion), S Tracy Walker (questionable, knee)

CHI DFS chalk: none

DET DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS tournament plays: Trubisky (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed), Montgomery / Tarik Cohen (DET 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: CHI 29th in third-down offense at 30.1 percent; DET 28th in third-down defense at 44.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-4 DET, average score 22-21 DET, average margin of victory seven points. CHI has won three straight meetings, including a 20-13 victory in Week 10.

Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop

Montgomery picks up 70 combined yards and a TD, while Cohen adds 60 scrimmage yards. Trubisky throws for 250 yards and a score to Allen Robinson but gets picked off twice. Bo Scarbrough rumbles for 60 yards. Blough starts and has his moments, throwing for 240 yards and touchdowns to Jones and Jesse James. Lions, 20-14
 

Buffalo (+6.5) at Dallas, 47.0 o/u – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Bills might have the most secure spot in the entire playoff picture in either conference. They're two games back of New England for the AFC East title (and have already lost to the Pats), but two games up on the pack in the wild-card hunt, meaning it would take something very weird to happen down the stretch for them to be anything other than the No. 5 seed to begin the playoffs. They've gotten there thanks to a strong defense and an offense that used to consist of only two real threats in Josh Allen and John Brown, but now features a third in rookie RB Devin Singletary, who's racked up 383 scrimmage yards the last four games. I mean, that's 50 percent more threats. It might not be a Super Bowl-caliber roster, but against, say, the Texans, or whoever the AFC South champ happens to be? That could be a first-round upset in waiting. Speaking of first-round upsets in waiting, the Cowboys were fighting the elements and the refs last week, but does anybody actually think they would have beaten the Pats even without those considerations? To put it another way, did anyone actually think Jason Garrett was going to out-coach Bill Belichick? Dallas remains a game up on the Eagles in the NFC East, largely because they have Dak Prescott and Philly has Carson Wentz, but even with its QB playing at an MVP level they have yet to beat a team with a record above .500. That doesn't bode well for a clash with the 8-3 Bills, but the tools are all there on both sides of the ball for the Cowboys to run the table and put some heat on the Saints and or/Niners for a first-round bye. Which they could use — the fewer chances Garrett has to lose an important game, the better.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: C Mitch Morse (questionable, finger) 

DAL injuries: LG Connor Williams (questionable, knee), RB Zack Martin (questionable, back), RT La'el Collins (questionable, knee), LB Leighton Vander Esch (questionable, neck)

BUF DFS chalk: none

DAL DFS chalk: none

BUF DFS tournament plays: Bills DST (BUF third in points per game allowed)

DAL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: Both teams are top five in third-down defense (BUF fifth at 33.3 percent, DAL third at 31.4 percent), but DAL is second in third-down offense at 48.5 percent while BUF is 16th at 38.0 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof 

The Scoop

Singletary zips for 100 combined yards and a score. Allen throws for 230 yards and a TD to Brown and runs for 60 yards. Ezekiel Elliott piles up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin and Tony Pollard. Cowboys, 28-23
 

New Orleans at Atlanta (+7), 48.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

It might be fair to say the Saints took the Falcons for granted when they met a few weeks ago. Drew Brees failed to throw a TD in that game, but he has three scores in his other three games since returning to action from a thumb injury. Alvin Kamara was also uncharacteristically quiet, though he hasn't popped for 100-plus scrimmage yards since Week 5, and hasn't found the end zone since Week 3. With New Orleans trying to chase down San Francisco and steal the No. 1 seed in the NFC, don't expect it to make the same mistake twice. The Falcons won that earlier meeting on the strength of a defense that looked surprising dangerous for all of two games before crashing back to earth last week against Jameis Winston and the Bucs. Atlanta's defense allowed 12 points total in that two-game win streak; it's surrendered no fewer than 20 points in any other game this year, and 34 or more four times. Matt Ryan has also looked out of sorts since his return from a sprained ankle, completing less than 60 percent of his passes in two of three games with a mediocre 3:2 TD:INT. Getting Devonta Freeman back this week might help the team as a whole, but Ryan will be without Austin Hooper and Julio Jones may be less than 100 percent healthy. If this game becomes a shootout, Ryan may not have the arsenal to keep up with Brees.

The Skinny

NO injuries: LT Terron Armstead (out, ankle), LG Andrus Peat (out, forearm), CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring)

ATL injuries: WR Jones (questionable, shoulder), TE Hooper (out. knee)

NO DFS chalk: none

ATL DFS chalk: none

NO DFS tournament plays: Ted Ginn (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: NO is 10th in third-down offense at 43.9 percent; ATL is 29th in third-down defense at 46.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-5 ATL, average score 27-26 ATL, average margin of victory nine points. Three of the last four meetings have been decided by 10 points or more. NO had won three straight before a stunning 26-9 ATL victory in Week 10.

Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop

Kamara erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Brees throws for 330 yards and TDs to Michael Thomas (who tops 100 yards) and Ginn. Freeman gains 70 combined yards in his return, but Qadree Ollison vultures a goal-line score. Ryan throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Saints, 34-24
 

Last week's record: 10-4, 6-8 ATS, 11-3 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 107-68-1, 82-92-2 ATS, 88-83-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 743-452-5, 552-604-44 ATS, 454-472-18 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)