NFL Game Previews: Chargers-Colts Matchup

L.A. Chargers at Indianapolis (+4), o/u 46.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Bolts have won three of their last four, all by a single score, to surge up into a wild-card spot, and a closing schedule that features three teams with four wins each certainly seems to point to them zooming into the postseason. Justin Herbert's production has been weirdly muted lately – he's averaging better than 300 yards but has only seven TDs over the last five games – but with his receiving corps fully healthy again, he should start chucking the ball into the end zone sooner or later. That five-game stretch coincides with Keenan Allen's return, and the veteran wideout has a 36-409-2 line on 52 targets since rejoining the lineup. For his part, Mike Williams has a 10-183-1 line on 14 targets over two games since he got healthy. That's been just enough offense, thanks to a defense that's held the Dolphins and Titans to 17 points or less in the last two games despite missing a number of key players. I'm not sure they can keep that up, and their run defense is making its annual appearance at the bottom of the rankings, but against the Colts, Rams and Broncos? Yeah, they can probably get the job done.

So, we're really doing this, huh? The Colts have lost four straight games since that fluky win over the Raiders in Jeff Saturday's debut, including last week's historic collapse against the Vikings, and Saturday is so desperate to snap that streak that Matt Ryan has been benched in favor of Nick Foles. Because nothing says you're looking ahead to the future like starting a 33-year-old career backup (mostly) at QB. Sure, Sam Ehlinger already proved pretty conclusively he's not a solution, and the team (currently set for the sixth overall pick in 2023) will probably look for a long-term solution over the summer, but that still leaves three more games in 2022 to get through. So sure, Foles, why not. He won't be able to lean on Jonathan Taylor, but Zack Moss and Deon Jackson looked good enough last week, and Indy does have a decent group of receivers. The main problem lately has been a defense that's given up 55 points over the last two weeks. Wait, sorry, that's 55 points in the last two fourth quarters. No matter who's running the show, there's not much an offense can do when the defense is determined to give the game away.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
IND injuries: RB Taylor (IR, ankle), TE Kylen Granson (questionable, ankle)

LAC DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Moss $5,000 DK / $5,100 FD and Jackson $6,000 DK / $4,800 FD (LAC 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), Alec Pierce $3,700 DK / $5,700 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAC DFS fades: Joshua Palmer $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (IND third in DVOA vs. WR3)
IND DFS fades: Parris Campbell $4,400 DK / $5,800 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: IND 31st in red-zone conversions at 45.0 percent; LAC 12th in red-zone defense at 53.5 percent

The Scoop Austin Ekeler racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 320 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Allen and Gerald Everett. Moss leads the IND backfield with 90 yards and a score, while Jackson adds 50 yards. Foles throws for 230 yards and a TD to Michael Pittman, but misses a two-pointer to Jelani Woods late as the Colts try to mount a comeback. Chargers 24-19

Green Bay (+4) at Miami, o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

All the Monday night talk about the Packers saving their season last week was cute, but their path to the postseason is still awfully narrow. All three of their remaining games are against playoff-caliber opponents (I'm crediting the Lions for their current form, not their overall record) and two of them come away from Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers has pulled off bigger heists, but Green Bay's at the point where even winning out and finishing 9-8 may not get it done. The running game's been on point lately, as AJ Dillon has 278 scrimmage yards and four TDs over the last three games while Aaron Jones has 275 and two, but Rodgers himself has averaged 183.7 passing yards a game over that stretch with a 7.2 YPA and 4:3 TD:INT. He's clearly not 100 percent and clearly committed to going down with the ship. The team's pair of rookie wideouts (Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs) both had their moments last week, but the best thing for the future of the franchise might be a loss here which eliminates them from playoff contention, allowing Rodgers to sit down his weary bones and let Jordan Love see what he can do for the final two weeks.

At one point earlier in the season all four AFC East teams sat in playoff spots, but now it's down to just the conference-leading Bills and the Dolphins clinging to the final wild-card spot. Miami's lost three straight, and while all three games were against playoff teams (or, in the Chargers' case, a likely playoff team) that isn't exactly a compelling case for them to keep playing after January 8th. Tua Tagovailoa failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in any of those losses, putting a big dent in his breakout campaign and long-shot MVP candidacy just when the Dolphins needed him to step it up. He's still bombing it deep – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each have a 100-yard performance during that stretch, and four TDs between them – but things aren't quite clicking. The defense allowing nearly 30 points a game isn't helping either, and while you can point to the quality of the opposition, I'm not quite ready to put Brock Purdy in the company of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert just yet. Miami was playing like an elite team earlier in the season, and maybe they will again, but it's also possible defensive coordinators have a handle on what Mike McDaniel and first-year offensive coordinator Frank Smith are trying to do.

The Skinny

GB injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIA injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (questionable, hip)

GB DFS targets: Robert Tonyan $3,000 DK / $5,200 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
MIA DFS targets: Raheem Mostert $5,500 DK / $7,400 FD and Wilson $5,200 DK / $6,000 FD (GB 32nd in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed)

GB DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Waddle $7,200 DK / $7,800 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: MIA t-10th in red-zone conversions at 60.5 percent; GB 20th in red-zone defense at 56.8 percent

Weather notes: 8-10 mph wind, 25-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jones dashes for 110 combined yards and a touchdown, while Dillon prances for 70 yards and a score, Rodgers throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Tonyan and Watson. Mostert answers back by leading the MIA backfield with 120 yards and a score. Tua throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) twice and Alec Ingold once. Dolphins 34-28

Denver at L.A. Rams (+2.5), o/u 36.5 – Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Broncos found a team in even worse shape than they were last week, as Denver's second-string QB beat up Arizona's third-string QB to snap a five-game losing streak. Russell Wilson will be back this week to send Brett Rypien back to the bench, but that doesn't really raise the ceiling on the offense much. It was Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack who led the way against the Cards, combining for 205 scrimmage yards and two TDs, and that's probably who the team will be leaning on the rest of the way. Wilson did toss a season-high three TDs in his last game, and the Rams' secondary has been targetable, but the former Seahawk has a whopping 11 passing touchdowns on the season so it's hard to expect the switch to suddenly flip on for him.

Baker Mayfield's renaissance in Los Angeles lasted about as long as you might have expected. He followed up his game-winning drive against the Raiders with 111 passing yards, a 57.1 percent completion rate and a 5.3 YPA against the Packers, sending the Rams to their sixth loss in the last seven games. Mayfield doesn't have much to work with, what with Cooper Kupp et al on the shelf, and the team has scored more than 20 points only once during that seven-game skid (a whopping 23 against Seattle in Week 13.) The defense hasn't been terrible and has a four-game streak going with multiple takeaways, but there's only so much the unit can do when they have to be on the field all. The. Time. During those seven games, the offense hasn't produced more than 20 first downs, which is kind of appalling.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Murray (questionable, foot), RB Javonte Williams (IR, knee), RB Chase Edmonds (IR-R, ankle), WR Courtland Sutton (questionable, hamstring), WR Kendall Hinton (out, hamstring), WR KJ Hamler (IR, hamstring), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee)
LAR injuries: WR Matthew Stafford (IR, neck), WR Kupp (IR, ankle), WR Allen Robinson (IR, foot), WR Ben Skowronek (out, calf)

DEN DFS targets: Sutton $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (LAR 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Jerry Jeudy $5,800 DK / $7,300 FD (LAR 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
LAR DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Mayfield $5,100 DK / $6,600 FD (DEN first in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Brandon Powell $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (DEN first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: LAR 18th in third-down conversions at 39.2 percent; DEN second in third-down defense at 32.1 percent

The Scoop Murray leads the DEN backfield with 80 yards and a TD, while Mack adds 50 yards. Wilson throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Jeudy. Cam Akers picks up 70 yards, while Mayfield throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Broncos 17-6

Tampa Bay at Arizona (+6.5), o/u 41 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Bucs have lost three of their last four since their bye, but they still can't give away the lead in the NFC South. Tom Brady is coming off a four-turnover performance against the Bengals, but over his last five games he does have a respectable 67.1 percent completion rate and 10 passing TDs, although that does come with a feeble 6.0 YPA. With the running game also having trouble getting going consistently, last week's 23 points is actually the most Tampa Bay had produced since Week 4, when Brady was futilely trying to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. The defense has started to cave under the pressure, giving up 27 points a game since that bye. They'll probably still end up hosting Dallas in the wild-card round, but does this really seem like a version of Brady that's going to suddenly be unbeatable again in the postseason?

The Cards have lost four straight and six of their last seven, and have now lost Kyler Murray for the rest of the season. They're playing for a draft slot right now, and unlike the other two four-win teams, Arizona still has its 2023 first-round pick, so gunning for the No. 3 slot is actually worth something to them. With Colt McCoy getting knocked out of last week's loss, Kliff Kingsbury is down to Trace McSorley at quarterback, although at least McSorley has a scrambling skill set that's an easier substitute for Kyler, because we wouldn't want Kingsbury to have to alter his scheme, would we? (In case it comes up, McSorley's backup will be former Lion and Eminem lyric https://genius.com/Eminem-lose-yourself-lyrics David Blough.) DeAndre Hopkins has seen volume regardless of who's under center, and James Conner's back to his 2021 form with six TDs in the last five games, but the offense as a whole has been awful lately, scoring 15 points or less in three of those four latest losses. With the defense getting chewed up on the ground, the Cards can't afford to have Conner be the only guy getting into the end zone consistently – unless, y'know, losing is the point.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee)
ARI injuries: QB Murray (IR, knee), QB McCoy (out, concussion), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, groin), WR Rondale Moore (IR, groin), TE Zach Ertz (IR, knee)

TB DFS targets: Leonard Fournette $5,400 DK / $7,100 FD and Rachaad White $5,300 DK / $6,700 FD (ARI t-27th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Cameron Brate $2,800 DK / $4,500 FD and Cade Otton $2,800 DK / $4,900 FD (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
ARI DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: Mike Evans $6,100 DK / $7,200 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Chris Godwin $6,900 DK / $8,000 FD (ARI fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI 25th in third-down conversions at 35.8 percent; TB 10th in third-down defense at 37.7 percent

The Scoop White leads the TB backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score, while Fournette adds 60 yards. Brady throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Otton and Russell Gage. Conner gallops for 100 yards and a touchdown. McSorley throws for under 200 yards. Buccaneers 24-10

Atlanta (+7.5) at Baltimore, o/u 37.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

One of the many indoor teams who will have to deal with the most outdoors weather possible Saturday, the Falcons remain improbably alive in the NFC South, sitting just one game back of the Bucs despite a 5-9 record. Atlanta's lost three straight and five of the last six, though, and the switch to Desmond Ridder last week didn't exactly pay dividends, as the rookie QB completed only 50 percent of his passes and failed to reach triple digits in passing yards. It's been simple for the Falcons all season — they've won five consecutive games when scoring at least 23 points, and lost seven straight when scoring 18 or less. I'm not sure what would happen if they reached the middle ground of 19-22 points, but given the conditions for this game, we probably don't need to worry about it.

Lamar Jackson's knee injury came at the worst possible time for the Ravens, though there's rarely a good time for the focal point of your offense to get hurt. Tyler Huntley led the team to just three points last week, losing a winnable game against the Browns, and the Ravens are now a game back of the surging Bengals in the AFC North. Baltimore's still in good shape for wild card at 9-5, but if they keep losing and one of the 7-7 teams currently out of the playoff picture gets hot ... actually, never mind. The Ravens have wins in their pocket over both the Pats and Jets, so it would take mirrored 0-3 and 3-0 finishes to make that tiebreaker irrelevant. J.K. Dobbins finally looks like the guy it seemed like he would become as a rookie, but the offense remains hamstrung by years of neglect toward the wide receiver room. Demarcus Robinson isn't a No. 1 or even a No. 2, and trying to win a 2014 retro fantasy league by bringing in DeSean Jackson and Sammy Watkins probably isn't going to help on an actual football field in 2022. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews hasn't found the end zone since Week 6. The defense looks Ravens-like at least, holding five of the last six teams it's faced to 14 points or less, but that just means the average score in a Baltimore game since their bye has been about 14-13. Did I say they're trying to win a 2014 retro league? I meant 1954.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: QB Marcus Mariota (IR, knee), TE Kyle Pitts (IR, knee)
BAL injuries: QB Jackson (out, knee), QB Huntley (questionable, shoulder), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, foot), WR Devin Duvernay (IR, foot)

ATL DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Huntley $5,300 DK / $6,700 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), DJackson $3,200 DK / $5,000 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: Cordarrelle Patterson $5,800 DK / $6,200 FD (BAL third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL ninth in third-down conversions at 42.7 percent; ATL 30th in third-down defense at 47.3 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the teens, 15 mph wind

The Scoop: Patterson manages 60 yards and a TD. Ridder throws for less than 200 yards and tosses his first NFL INT. Dobbins churns out 100 yards and a score, while Gus Edwards adds a touchdown. Huntley also throws for less than 200 yards. Ravens 17-13

Detroit at Carolina (+2.5), o/u 44 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

The Lions just keep on roaring, winning three straight and six of their last seven to climb within half a game of the Commanders for the final wild card in the NFC. Much has been made of Jared Goff's home-road splits lately, and they are pretty wacky, but Detroit's still won three consecutive road games and piled up 31 points in two (before getting held to 20 last week by the Jets), so it's not like the QB's lack of production outside Ford Field has held his team back much. The Lions simply have too many weapons, which is a thing nobody's been able to say since Wayne Fontes' heyday. Try to shut down Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, Jameson Williams and the rest of the passing game, and Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift will get you out of the backfield. The Detroit defense has also given the opposition a much smaller margin for error, allowing 19.9 PPG over that seven-game surge. The bottom line is, these guys are playing like a playoff team, even if their 1-6 start to the season ultimately keeps them out of the postseason.

The kooky thing about this game is that neither team comes into it with a winning record, and yet both could make the playoffs. The Panthers are one game back of the Bucs, and I continues to cross my fingers that Chaos Season gets capped by a 7-10 division champ that the NFL allows to play host to, like, a 12-win Cowboys team in the first round. Carolina's won three of their last five, which counts as momentum in the NFC South, but the offense is only going as far as D'Onta Foreman can take it. Sam Darnold's been sort of competent since taking over, managing a 3:0 TD:INT and 7.7 YPA in three starts, but a sub-60 percent completion rate and fewer than 170 passing yards a game isn't moving any needles.

The Skinny

DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CAR injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DET DFS targets: none
CAR DFS targets: Darnold $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed)

DET DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET third in red-zone conversions at 70.6 percent; CAR 21st in red-zone defense at 58.3 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-20s, 11 mph wind

The Scoop: Williams leads the DET backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Swift adds 60 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 220 yards and a TD to St. Brown. Foreman erupts for 110 yards and two TDs. Darnold throws for 230 yards and a score to DJ Moore but gets picked off twice. Lions 27-21

Buffalo at Chicago (+8.5), o/u 40.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

Sub-freezing temperatures, howling winds ... it's the perfect environment for a Bills-Bears game! Buffalo continues to stay one step ahead of Kansas City in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, winning five consecutive games and averaging 27.0 points a game during the win streak. Four of the victories have been by a single score, however, as the defense hasn't quite been the elite unit fans have gotten used to seeing from Leslie Frazier's crew. Josh Allen appeared to be over his elbow issue last week, torching the Dolphins for more than 300 yards and four TDs, and he hasn't thrown an INT in three consecutive games. Given the conditions for this one, though, Allen's legs will probably be more important than his arm. After Jalen Hurts ran all over them last week, the Bears have allowed eight rushing TDs to quarterbacks through 14 games — nobody else has coughed up more than six — and Allen needs just 59 more rushing yards to set a career high for a season.

Did I mention that Chicago's defense just lost middle linebacker Jack Sanborn, one of the youngsters keeping the unit afloat after all the vets got traded? Actually, "afloat" may be generous. The Bears' losing streak stands at seven games and they've surrendered 32.3 points a game during that skid. While they probably won't catch the Texans for the first overall pick in next year's draft, they look like the odds-on favorites to pick second. Justin Fields became the third QB in history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season, joining Lamar Jackson (twice) and Michael Vick (once), and he's two rushing TDs short of becoming the 10th member of that particular club. It's a good thing he's running so much too, because he's running out of healthy wideouts. Chicago could get Khalil Herbert back this week to join David Montgomery in the backfield, but a run-heavy approach against a Bills defense that ranks sixth in rushing yards per game allowed and third in rushing DVOA probably isn't going to produce any upsets. Just one more respectable loss.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CHI injuries: RB Herbert (IR-R, hip), WR Chase Claypool (doubtful, knee), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (out, concussion), WR Darnell Mooney (IR, ankle)

BUF DFS targets: Allen $8,500 DK / $9,500 FD (CHI 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QB), Stefon Diggs $8,500 DK / $8,700 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
CHI DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: Cole Kmet $4,400 DK / $5,100 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: BUF fourth in net yards per play at 0.88; CHI 25th at -0.46

Weather notes: temperature in mid-single digits, 22 mph wind

The Scoop: Devin Singletary runs for 80 yards and a score, while James Cook adds 50 yards. Allen throws for 210 yards, but adds 60 and a TD on the ground. Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Fields throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 70. Bills 17-10

New Orleans (+2.5) at Cleveland, o/u 32 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

The struggles of the Saints' offense under Andy Dalton — they've been held to 16 points or less in four of the last six games, losing all four — have obscured the defense's turnaround. New Orleans has allowed 20 points or less in five straight, and while a soft schedule has contributed to that, they still prevented the Niners from scoring more than 13 points in The Brock Purdy Game before stifling Tom Brady and the Bucs the following week. If the offense had found any kind of rhythm during that time, they could be in the driver's seat for the NFC South crown, instead of being one of the mediocre clubs staring up at Tampa Bay. Alvin Kamara has gone six consecutive games without a touchdown, though he did end a five-game streak without reaching 100 scrimmage yards last week, while Dalton has been efficient but on low volume. Without star rookie Chris Olave to throw it to, though, and in horrible conditions, there's no reason to think Dalton will be much of a factor.

The Browns aren't out of the playoff picture yet, but they aren't exactly in it either, two games back of the final wild card with four teams between them and the current holders of that golden ticket, the Dolphins. Cleveland has won three of the last four, though, two with Deshaun Watson under center, so I guess that's some reason for mild optimism. Last week's ugly win on a cold and windy Baltimore day was just a prelude to Watson getting Lake Erie weather on full blast. Last time he had to deal with something like these kinds of conditions was Week 10 in 2020 in a road game for the Texans against the Browns — he threw for 163 yards and a 5.4 YPA but did toss a TD to Pharaoh Brown for Houston's only points. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt each ran for more than 100 yards in that game, but they won't get to face the Texans run defense this time around. With two winnable road games in January to close their schedule, a 9-8 finish for the Browns isn't off the table. It probably won't get them into the playoffs, but it would make them feel better about the massive investment they've made in Watson.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (IR, knee), WR Olave (out, hamstring), WR Michaarl Thomas (IR, toe), WR Jarvis Landry (IR, ankle)
CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

NO DFS targets: Kamara $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD (CLE 30th in rushing DVOA, 29th in YPC allowed), Marquez Callaway $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (CLE 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
CLE DFS targets: Amari Cooper $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), David Bell $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: David Njoku $4,300 DK / $5,800 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CLE 17th in red-zone conversions at 54.2 percent; NO t-4th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the high single digits, 25-26 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Kamara collects 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Dalton throws for less than 200 yards but finds Juwan Johnson for a TD. Chubb gains 120 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 50 yards. Watson throws for under 200 yards. Saints 17-7

Seattle (+10) at Kansas City, o/u 49 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

Full disclosure — I tweaked the inputs a bit on this one, as the algorithm originally had the Seahawks winning outright by a couple points. Even in Chaos Season, I just couldn't go through with it. Seattle's lost four of its last five, with all five games decided by a single score, and as a result the Seahawks have tumbled out of the playoff picture — they can't win the NFC West and are a half-game back of the final wild card. Geno Smith's been doing everything he can to keep his squad afloat, posting an 11:4 TD:INT over that stretch, but that doubled his interception total on the year. He's running out of help, though. Kenneth Walker hasn't been 100 percent healthy in weeks and it shows in his numbers (just 226 scrimmage yards with a 3.2 YPC over those five games, one of which he missed entirely) and now Tyler Lockett's out, potentially for the rest of the regular season. The defense, which wasn't looking too bad there for a bit before the team's bye, has coughed up 28.5 points a game in four games since, giving Smith and the crumbling offense an even deeper hole to climb out of each week.

Kansas City has already locked up its seventh consecutive AFC West title and eighth straight season with double-digit wins, but the team's still locked in a wrestling match with Buffalo for the No. 1 seed (with Cincy lurking if they somehow both falter down the stretch.) Patrick Mahomes is 504 passing yards away from his second career 5,000-yard campaign, and Peyton Manning's single-season record remains in sight, though he's fallen off the pace a little, and he still has a second game against the stingy Broncos secondary to contend with — although he did light Denver up for 352 yards and three TDs just a couple weeks ago. Fun fact: Kansas City has had a different leading rusher every season Mahomes has been the starter, going from Kareem Hunt to Damien Williams to Clyde Edwards-Helaire to Darrel Williams to this year's rookie sensation Isiah Pacheco, who sports a sturdy 4.9 YPC and has a shot at 1,000 scrimmage yards despite not taking over the starting gig until Week 10. That pattern doesn't bode well for his 2023 prospects, but Pacheco certainly looks good now. In fact, the backfield has become the engine of the offense the last month or so, with Jerick McKinnon erupting for five TDs (four receiving) in the last three games. Everyone was focused on trying to figure out which retread wideout would become Mahomes' new go-to guy, they forgot to look at other position groups. The approach is working, as K.C. has scored 30-plus in back-to-back games, and getting the ground game going just as the weather starts getting nasty isn't the worst idea, though Mahomes could probably rack up 300 yards in a blizzard.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Walker (questionable, ankle), WR Lockett (out, finger), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, wrist), TE Noah Fant (questionable, knee)
KC injuries: RB Edwards-Helaire (IR, ankle), WR Mecole Hardman (IR-R, abdomen)

SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $7,100 DK / $8,000 FD (KC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS targets: Pacheco $5,700 DK / $6,700 FD and McKinnon $5,900 DK / $7,300 FD (SEA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed,, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Travis Kelce $8,000 DK / $8,600 FD (SEA 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

SEA DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Kadarius Toney $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (SEA second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: KC first in third-down conversions at 51.2 percent; SEA 28th in third-down defense at 45.0 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the high single digits, 10-11 mph wind

The Scoop: Walker plays and guts out 70 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and Travis Homer. Pacheco picks up 80 yards and a score, while McKinnon adds 60 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 310 yards and two TDs, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) and Noah Gray. Kansas City 27-24

N.Y. Giants (+4) at Minnesota, o/u 48.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

The Giants' win against the Commanders last week gave them a bit of breathing room in the fight for a wild card, but if the regular season had ended last week all four NFC East teams would still be going. Not bad for a division that finished a combined 32-36 last year. The victory also snapped a four-game winless streak for Brian Daboll's crew, and made them 8-2-1 in games decided by eight points or less. Daniel Jones' evolution into a bus driver is just about complete — he hasn't topped a 6.5 YPA in four consecutive games but also hasn't thrown a pick in those four, completing 68.0 percent of his passes with four total TDs (three passing, one rushing) and doing enough damage with his legs to supplement his low passing volume. Saquon Barkley remains the linchpin of the offense, scoring in three of the last four games and piling up more than 100 scrimmage yards last week for the first time since Week 10 (and that was against the Texans, so it hardly counts.) Arguably the bigger story for New York last week was the Kayvon Thibodeaux breakout, though. It's easy to forget the kid was in the conversation for a while to be the first overall pick in last year's draft, and if he's becoming the true game-wrecker the Giants' pass rush was lacking, a unit that had allowed 31.8 PPG the four weeks prior to that stifling of Washington suddenly becomes one nobody's going to want to face in the postseason.

Despite their best efforts, the Vikings won the NFC North last week. It's one thing to lose to the feisty Lions; it's quite another to spot a team like the woeful Colts a 33-point lead. I mean sure, that just allowed Minnesota to put together the biggest second-half comeback in NFL history (I'd say "greatest" but, y'know, 28-3), but they should never have been in that hole in the first place. Given the Vikings' remaining schedule, they could well end up the No. 2 seed, which would make this game an entirely plausible wild-card round preview. No offense Skol Nation, but they're still my pick for the most likely first-round upset. They're 26th in net yards per play, for pity's sake, behind the Falcons and Bears. (Then again, the Giants are 29th, so maybe that's the matchup the Vikes should be rooting for.) Kirk Cousins waited until Thanksgiving to start playing like an MVP, but boy howdy is he making up for lost time, averaging nearly 340 passing yards in the last four games with a 69.5 percent completion rate, 8.1 YPA and 10:3 TD:INT. As you might expect, Justin Jefferson's been on the other end of a lot of that production, and by "a lot" I mean 530 of those yards, or nearly 40 percent. He's now nearly 100 yards ahead of Tyreek Hill for the league receiving yards crown, and Jefferson is now the guy with Calvin Johnson's single-season record in his grasp — except that this is his last home game, and Minnesota closes out their campaign in Green Bay and Chicago. Megatron's record might be safe after all.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (IR, ), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (IR, )
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

NYG DFS targets: Jones $5,600 DK / $7,400 FD (MIN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)
MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $7,200 DK / $8,700 FD (NYG 31st in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), T.J. Hockenson $4,900 DK / $6,000 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

NYG DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: Adam Thielen $5,300 DK / $6,600 FD (NYG fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYG 23rd in third-down conversions at 37.2 percent; MIN t-13th in third-down defense at 38.3 percent

The Scoop: Barkley rings up 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Jones throws for 230 yards and a score to Darius Slayton. Cook responds with 100 yards and a TD. Cousins stays hot, throwing for 290 yards and three touchdowns — two to Jefferson, who tops 100 yards, and one to Hockenson. Vikings 28-27

Cincinnati at New England (+3), o/u 41.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

For this week, with Philly handing the reins to Gardner Minshew in place of Jalen Hurts, the Bengals grade out as the best team in the NFL in my personal rankings, using the stats I plug into the algorithm to generate the results in the Scoop sections. Make of that what you will. (The Niners are second, while the Eagles plummet all the way to No. 3.) Cincy's certainly proven its worth on the field, winning six straight to surge into the lead in the AFC North, including that big Week 13 win over Kansas City. The Bengals have averaged 30.5 PPG during the winning streak while allowing 20.7, which is a pretty decent formula for success. Surprisingly, Joe Burrow's numbers over that stretch are merely good, not elite, though he has thrown 14 TDs, with Ja'Marr Chase scoring in back-to-back games and Tee Higgins finding paydirt in three of the last four. Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have also contributed 10 touchdowns between them during the winning streak, though most of that came in two contests (Mixon's five-TD eruption against the Panthers, and Perine's three-TD romp against the Steelers). Seriously, though, imagine being a defensive coordinator, looking at all the other dangerous names on the Cincy roster, and thinking, "Wait, now I have to worry about Samaje &@(# Perine too?" This is why coaches take high-paying jobs with college programs instead of staying in the NFL.

I have to admit, when I saw Jakobi Meyers' name on the injury report this week, I wondered if Bill Belichick was going to list the issue as "brain cramps." Last week's final play against the Raiders might have been the least Belichickian thing I've ever seen one of his Patriots teams do. For one glorious and horrifying (if you're a Pats fan) moment, "Do your job" became "Do something crazy," and Meyers' attempted back pass to Mac Jones instead wound up as a walkoff defensive TD for former New England star Chandler Jones. That sent the Patriots to their third loss in the last four games, and at least for now out of a wild card. It also continued a trend of them not beating an NFL starting QB of any kind of decent quality. Their wins have come against Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky and Road Jared Goff. They now finish their season against Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. Gulp.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, calf)
NE injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (questionable, ankle), RB Damien Harris (questionable, thigh), WR Meyers (questionable, shoulder), WR DeVante Parker (out, concussion), WR Tyquan Thornton (questionable, knee)

CIN DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: Thornton $3,000 DK / $5,200 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

CIN DFS fades: Chase $8,300 DK / $8,800 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: NE 32nd in red-zone conversions at 37.8 percent; CIN t-10th in red-zone defense at 53.3 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the high teens, 12-14 mph wind

The Scoop: Mixon leads the CIN backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a score. Burrow throws for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting Higgins and Chase. Stevenson churns out 80 yards and a touchdown. Mac Jones throws for 220 yards. Bengals 24-16

Houston (+4.5) at Tennessee, o/u 37 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans are really playing with fire. Sure, they're 1.5 games up on the Bears for the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, and they'd probably have their pick of QBs at No. 2 anyway assuming Chicago is sold on Justin Fields, but back-to-back near-upsets of Dallas and Kansas City might almost have people thinking they're a competitive team. I still don't know how Houston scored more than 20 points in either of those games. Dameon Pierce is done for the year (just 61 rushing yards shy of 1,000) and the team's wide receiver corps is an injury-riddled mess. Since Pierce went down early in the Cowboys game, the Texans' TDs have been scored by Packers cast-off Amari Rodgers, rookie tight end Teagan Quitoriano, Davis Mills on an improbable 17-yard scramble (he has 61 rushing yards all year) and thoroughly fungible veteran tight end Jordan Akins. That's some elite randomness going on there. I'm sure they'd like nothing more than to cash in their one safe win to help deny the Titans a division title, but they're just as likely to mail this one in, to be honest.

On the other hand, if Tennessee is going to hold off Jacksonville for that AFC South crown, they'll have to do it with overmatched rookie Malik Willis under center. Ryan Tannehill won't play this week and might not play again in the regular season, and the only reason he isn't on IR already is that the Titans are trying to determine if he needs surgery or not. Willis will be making his third NFL start, and he has 135 passing yards in the first two. That's total, mind you, not per game. Woof. At this stage of his career, Willis is a wildcat option masquerading as a passer, and he makes Taysom Hill look like Drew Brees. Fortunately for the Titans, they might not need to pass much in this one. The Texans once again have an abysmal run defense, and Derrick Henry keeps posting Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl-like numbers against them, averaging 223 rushing yards and more than two TDs a game the last four times he's faced Houston. Henry will get his; the question is whether Willis can add anything on top, and whether the increasingly shaky Tennessee defense can contain the dynamic duo of Mills and (draws name of Texans tight end out of a hat.)

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Pierce (IR, ankle), WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, calf), WR Nico Collins (out, foot), WR Chris Moore (questionable, foot)
TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (out, ankle), WR Treylon Burks (questionable, concussion)

HOU DFS targets: Mills $5,100 DK / $6,500 FD (TEN 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed), Rodgers $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
TEN DFS targets: Henry $8,600 DK / $9,800 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)

HOU DFS fades: Dare Ogunbowale $4,400 DK / $5,400 FD and Royce Freeman $4,800 DK / $5,900 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed)
TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN 24th in third-down conversions at 36.2 percent; HOU 20th in third-down defense at 40.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 TEN, average score 26-25 HOU, average margin of victory 11 points. TEN has won five of the last six meetings, but HOU has won two of the last three in Nissan Stadium, including a 22-13 victory in Week 11 of last year

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-teens, 11 mph wind

The Scoop: Ogunbowale leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Mills throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding Cooks and Quitoriano. Henry stampedes for his usual 200 yards and two scores. Willis runs for 50 yards but throws for well less than 200 yards and commits a fumble that Jonathan Greenard takes to the house. Texans 24-14

Washington (+7) at San Francisco, o/u 38 
Saturday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Taylor Heinicke crashed back down to earth last week (with a little help from Kayvon Thibodeaux), taking the Commanders with him. He was bound to run out of luck eventually — during the four-game unbeaten streak preceding that loss to the Giants, he'd managed a 60.8 percent completion rate, 6.8 YPA and 4:2 TD:INT while also committing two fumbles — and the fact that Ron Rivera immediately cracked open the door a bit on a Carson Wentz return tells me the coach was never sold on Heinicke, he just didn't want to mess with a hot streak. Well, if his performance against New York didn't officially end it, having to face the Niners' defense almost certainly will. The Commanders are still a half-game up on the Lions and Seahawks for the final NFC wild card, but Washington's remaining schedule is clearly tougher than Detroit's and probably tougher than Seattle's given the Jets' QB situation. Their best chance of holding on might come from a returning Chase Young turning the defense into a monster rather than anything Wentz might do under center, though.

The 49ers are the hottest team in the league, winning seven consecutive games and clinching the NFC West title with last week's win over the 'Hawks. The defense has been an absolute juggernaut over that stretch, allowing 11 points a game, shutting out the Saints and holding Tom Brady's Bucs to just seven points along the way. The last time this unit allowed a 100-yard rusher was Week 8 ... of 2021, and that was Justin Fields. The last time San Francisco allowed a running back to reach triple digits was Jonathan Taylor the week before. Including last year's playoffs, that's 28 consecutive games of relative RB futility. (Yeah, OK, James Conner had like 96 yards and two TDs right after Fields' performance, but that doesn't alter the point.) The amazing thing about this year's dominance if that the Niners' defense hasn't been fully healthy all year, constantly missing guys in the secondary and in the middle of the defensive line. If DeMeco Ryans doesn't get snapped up for a head coaching job in the offseason ... well, we've been here before with Coaches of Color mysteriously not getting chances their resumes say they should, but maybe this time the NFL really, really means it when they say they're going to fix the process. I guess I should say something about Brock Purdy too, or Christian McCaffrey, but Purdy's thrived precisely because there's so little pressure on him to produce. He just has to avoid mistakes, and let CMac, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Talanoa Hufanga etc. do the rest.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: RB J.D. McKissic (IR, neck)
SF injuries: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (out, foot), QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR, knee), WR Deebo Samuel (out, knee)

WAS DFS targets: Curtis Samuel $4,400 DK / $5,700 FD (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
SF DFS targets: Ray-Ray McCloud $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

WAS DFS fades: Brian Robinson $5,400 DK / $6,600 FD and Antonio Gibson $5,300 DK / $5,800 FD (SF first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB), Terry McLaurin $6,200 DK / $7,000 FD (SF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
SF DFS fades: George Kittle $5,300 DK / $7,000 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SF third in net yards per play at 1.06; WAS 20th at -0.23

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 50 yards. Heinicke throws for 210 yards and finds Samuel for a score but gets picked off twice, one of which Jimmie Ward returns for a TD. McCaffrey racks up 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Purdy throws for 230 yards and a score to Brandon Aiyuk. 49ers 27-13

Philadelphia (+4.5) at Dallas, o/u 47 – Saturday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Fair is fair. Dallas played without its starting quarterback the first time these two teams saw each other in 2022, so now Jalen Hurts sits this out one. The over-reaction of the Vegas line to that news might be the biggest argument yet in favor of Hurts winning MVP, but this is far from a one-man team, and Gardner Minshew is among the better backups in the league. Philly hasn't won five consecutive games and lost only once all season solely because of Hurts. The Eagles have a strong running game, multiple elite downfield targets (and they get Dallas Goedert back this week), an elite and healthy offensive line, the best cornerback duo in the NFL, a top-five pass rush ... I think they can get by without their starting QB for a bit to make sure he's healthy for the playoffs.

Speaking of starting QBs who might need a break, what's going on with Dak Prescott? Last week's game-winning INT for the Jaguars was all on Noah Brown, but Dak has thrown a whole lot of other picks the last six games that he bears a lot more responsibility for. It's not like he should be feeling pressure to win games by himself. The Tony Pollard/Ezekiel Elliott backfield's been on fire, CeeDee Lamb's emerged as a true No. 1 WR, the defense keeps racking up splash plays, and he just got Tyron Smith back to bolster his offensive line. Like the Eagles, this is an extremely talented, extremely well-rounded roster, but unlike the Eagles they have trouble getting out of their own way at times. They're tied for fifth as the most penalized team in the NFL, for instance; Philly's 22nd. I'm not gonna say that's on Mike McCarthy, but I shouldn't have to, and it's not a good sign that they're ready to get past a team like the 49ers in the postseason.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: QB Hurts (out, shoulder)
DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

PHI DFS targets: DeVonta Smith $6,600 DK / $7,600 FD (DAL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
DAL DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: Minshew $4,800 DK / $6,100 FD (DAL fourth in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed)
DAL DFS fades: Prescott $6,100 DK / $7,500 FD (PHI second in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Lamb $7,500 DK / $8,300 FD (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR1), Michael Gallup $4,200 DK / $5,700 FD (PHI third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: PHI first in red-zone conversions at 73.5 percent; DAL 15th in red-zone defense at 55.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DAL, average score 25-20 DAL, average margin of victory 15 points. DAL had won three straight meetings by 20 or more points before a 26-17 PHI victory in Week 6

The Scoop: Miles Sanders cranks out 90 yards and a TD, while Kenneth Gainwell also gets into the end zone. Minshew throws for 240 yards and a score to Smith. Pollard leads the DAL backfield with 80 combined yards and a touchdown, while Zeke adds 50. Prescott throws for 250 yards and TDs to Dalton Schultz and Brown, but his attempt to engineer a game-saving drive late in the fourth quarter ends in a James Bradberry INT. Eagles 27-24

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 39 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

I rag on the NFL's incompetence a lot, but good job scheduling a Raiders-Steelers game for the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. It's the kind of easy win the league has whiffed on too often under Roger Goodell. Too bad neither team is really playing for anything. Las Vegas is technically still alive in the AFC wild-card race after last week's miracle win over New England, but they're an indoor team playing in extremely Pittsburgh weather, and then they wrap things up against San Francisco and Kansas City, two teams that could easily meet in the Super Bowl. Chaos Season or no, it ain't happening. Josh Jacobs will probably see a heavy load here, but he has 674 rushing yards in his last five games with a 5.1 YPC, so of course he will. The Pats put the clamps on Davante Adams last week, a feat the Steelers will look to replicate, but with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller back, Derek Carr at least has options if he doesn't want to force the ball to his top receiver.

At one point, early forecasts had this game being a fog bowl, but it looks like we'll be denied that particular pleasure. We'll also be denied having to watch Mitch Trubisky play like he's in a fog, as Kenny Pickett will be back under center for Pittsburgh. Pickett isn't great, but the rookie hasn't committed a turnover since Week 8. Trubisky threw three picks against the Ravens a couple weeks ago, even though he only failed to complete eight passes. That's a heck of a ratio. Najee Harris has come on, collecting a solid 482 scrimmage yards and five TDs the last six games, while the Pittsbrugh defense has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less, with Joe Burrow's Bengals being the only exception. The Steelers haven't really faced anyone else good during that stretch, but Carr in sub-freezing temperatures seems more likely to play like Sam Darnold or Matt Ryan than he is Burrow.

The Skinny

LV injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
PIT injuries: WR Diontae Johnson (questionable, toe)

LV DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: Steven Sims $3,000 DK / $5,200 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

LV DFS fades: none
PIT DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV 12th in net yards per play at 0.13; PIT 28th at -0.72

Weather notes: temperature in the low teens, 13-14 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop Jacobs gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for under 200 yards but does find Waller for a score. Harris puts together 100 yards and a TD. Pickett throws for 220 yards. Raiders 17-16

Jacksonville (+1) at N.Y. Jets, o/u 36.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Last week's wild overtime win over the Cowboys was only maybe the third-most chaotic game of Week 15, but that's like winning a bronze at the Olympics. It was still pretty dang elite. The Jags have won three of four since their bye to close within a game of the lead in the AFC South, and a Week 18 showdown with the Titans is looming very large. The team's injury report continues to remind us that Trevor Lawrence is playing through a toe injury, but you'd never know it watching him on the field — the last two weeks he has a dazzling 7:1 TD:INT while averaging 343 passing yards a game, with Zay Jones on the other end of four of those scores. Travis Etienne also got going last week, rushing for over 100 yards for the first time since Week 9, but that game against the Raiders was still the last time he's gotten into the end zone. Jacksonville may need him to break that streak considering the weather forecast for Thursday night, plus the lack of Cam Robinson to protect Lawrence's blind side against a top-10 Jets pass rush.

Gang Green is headed in the opposite direction, losing three straight to tumble to a .500 record and out of a wild-card spot. The simple fact of the matter is, they need a reliable QB. Mike White's had his moments but hasn't been able to stay healthy any time he's gotten a chance to start, while Zach Wilson remains a work in progress. Sure, he threw for 317 yards and two TDs last week, but they came with a 51.4 percent completion rate and one pretty brutal INT. To his credit, he did give the Jets a small chance to win in the dying seconds last week, but Greg Zuerlein couldn't convert a 58-yarder. The Jets' offensive line is just as banged up as the Jags' unit, and Jacksonville's young edge rushing group is top 10 in pressure rate and knockdown rate even if that hasn't resulted in consistent sacks yet, so this game could well come down to which running game has the most success, and which kicker has the most trouble with the conditions.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, toe), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension)
NYJ injuries: QB White (out, ribs), RB Breece Hall (IR, knee), WR Corey Davis (questionable, concussion)

JAC DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: ZWilson $9,800 DK / $15,000 FD (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed, t-26th in passing TDs allowed), Tyler Conklin $3,200 DK / $6,500 FD and C.J. Uzomah $3,000 DK / $6,500 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $11,400 DK / $16,500 FD (NYJ fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed)
NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC t-13th in third-down conversions at 42.0 percent; NYJ 15th in third-down defense at 38.5 percent

Weather notes: 13-15 mph wind, 85-90 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Etienne splashes around for 110 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for 230 yards. Zonovan Knight charges for 80 yards and a score, while Michael Carter also catches a TD pass. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Jaguars 16-14

Last week's record: 11-5, 9-6-1 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 123-99-2, 101-116-7 ATS, 115-108-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1411-868-9, 1106-1108-74 ATS, 850-895-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)