Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Are Batters Adjusting?

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Are Batters Adjusting?

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Updated on May 24, 2021 12:05AM EST

Lost in the proliferation of no-hitters is a possible paradigm. Contrary to the narrative, balls in play are increasing, at least relative to April:

	HR%	K%	BABIP	R/G
April	3.1	24.4	0.283	4.25
May	3.1	23.7	0.296	4.56

Keep in mind homers typically increase in May, so the fact they've held steady indicates they are lower than usual. Strikeouts are down while BABIP is way up. The result is over half a run total is being scored per game.

It's too early to decide if it's a change in batter's approach, noise or driven by warmer temperatures. Still, it bears watching and could influence how we stream pitchers.

As always, please understand I pull the probable pitchers from the best Projected Starter grid in the business. Please direct any rotation questions to that page.

Week of May 24-30.

UPDATED: Monday May 24 12:05 AM ET

Mixed Leagues

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comments
1	Jacob deGrom	NYM	COL, ATL
2	Max Scherzer	WAS	CIN, MIL
3	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	SD, @WAS
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@HOU, SF
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL	SD, @WAS
6	Jack Flaherty	STL	@CWS, @ARI
7	Lucas Giolito	CWS	STL, BAL	Walks still too high
8	John Means	BAL	@MIN, @CWS
9	Joe Musgrove	SD	@MIL, @HOU
10	Aaron Civale	CLE	@DET, TOR	Strikeouts beginning to increase
11	Yusei Kikuchi	SEA	@OAK, TEX	ERA should start to come down
12	Lance Lynn	CWS	STL, BAL
13	Kevin

Lost in the proliferation of no-hitters is a possible paradigm. Contrary to the narrative, balls in play are increasing, at least relative to April:

	HR%	K%	BABIP	R/G
April	3.1	24.4	0.283	4.25
May	3.1	23.7	0.296	4.56

Keep in mind homers typically increase in May, so the fact they've held steady indicates they are lower than usual. Strikeouts are down while BABIP is way up. The result is over half a run total is being scored per game.

It's too early to decide if it's a change in batter's approach, noise or driven by warmer temperatures. Still, it bears watching and could influence how we stream pitchers.

As always, please understand I pull the probable pitchers from the best Projected Starter grid in the business. Please direct any rotation questions to that page.

Week of May 24-30.

UPDATED: Monday May 24 12:05 AM ET

Mixed Leagues

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comments
1	Jacob deGrom	NYM	COL, ATL
2	Max Scherzer	WAS	CIN, MIL
3	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	SD, @WAS
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@HOU, SF
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL	SD, @WAS
6	Jack Flaherty	STL	@CWS, @ARI
7	Lucas Giolito	CWS	STL, BAL	Walks still too high
8	John Means	BAL	@MIN, @CWS
9	Joe Musgrove	SD	@MIL, @HOU
10	Aaron Civale	CLE	@DET, TOR	Strikeouts beginning to increase
11	Yusei Kikuchi	SEA	@OAK, TEX	ERA should start to come down
12	Lance Lynn	CWS	STL, BAL
13	Kevin Gausman	SF	@ARI, @LAD	27 K with just 3 BB last 20 IP
14	Zach Eflin	PHI	@MIA, @TB	Two great pitching venues boost ranking
15	Gerrit Cole	NYY	@DET
16	Corey Kluber	NYY	TOR, @DET
17	Walker Buehler	LAD	SF
18	Zack Wheeler	PHI	@TB
19	Trevor Bauer	LAD	@HOU
20	Julio Urias	LAD	SF
21	Tyler Glasnow	TB	KC
22	Shane Bieber	CLE	@DET
23	Trevor Rogers	MIA	PHI, @BOS
24	Carlos Rodon	CWS	STL
25	Charlie Morton	ATL	@BOS, @NYM	ERA starting to correct
26	Aaron Nola	PHI	@MIA	4 HR last 15 IP
27	Yu Darvish	SD	@HOU
28	Ian Anderson	ATL	@NYM
29	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	PHI, @BOS
30	Rich Hill	TB	KC
31	Kyle Gibson	TEX	@SEA
32	Marcus Stroman	NYM	COL
33	David Peterson	NYM	COL, ATL	Sneaky good 20.1% K-BB%
34	Spencer Turnbull	DET	CLE, NYY
35	Hyun Jin Ryu	TOR	@CLE
36	Chris Bassitt	OAK	LAA
37	Dinelson Lamet	SD	@MIL
38	Dallas Keuchel	CWS	BAL
39	Jose Berrios	MIN	BAL
40	Cole Irvin	OAK	SEA, LAA	Incurred expected K regression, but facing beatable lineups at home
41	Blake Snell	SD	@MIL, @HOU	Threw 6 innings for the first time this season last time out
42	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	@OAK	Not a bad pitcher for a slugger
43	Dylan Bundy	LAA	@OAK	Last two vs. BOS and LAD, he'll be fine
44	Zach Plesac	CLE	TOR	Just 6 K last 15 IP
45	Pablo Lopez	MIA	PHI
46	Sean Manaea	OAK	LAA
47	Madison Bumgarner	ARI	STL
48	Jordan Montgomery	NYY	TOR	Impressive outing against CWS, the best team vs. LHP
49	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@WAS
50	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	SD
51	Zack Greinke	HOU	LAD
52	Chris Paddack	SD	@MIL	Getting back on track
53	Cristian Javier	HOU	SD
54	Ryan Yarbrough	TB	@TOR, PHI
55	German Marquez	COL	@NYM
56	Justin Dunn	SEA	TEX
57	Austin Gomber	COL	@NYM, @PIT	3.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP with 24 K in 22.1 IP since beating by the Bay.
58	Jon Gray	COL	@PIT
59	Frankie Montas	OAK	SEA, LAA
60	Adbert Alzolay	CHC	CIN
61	Andrew Heaney	LAA	TEX
62	Robbie Ray	TOR	@NYY
63	James Kaprielian	OAK	SEA	15 K in 10 IP
64	Marco Gonzales	SEA	TEX
65	Kwang Hyun Kim	STL	@CWS, @ARI
66	Mike Minor	KC	@TB
67	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	COL
68	Josh Fleming	TB	PHI
69	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	CIN
70	Mike Foltynewicz	TEX	@SEA
71	Brady Singer	KC	@TB
72	Anthony DeSclafani	SF	@LAD
73	Nick Pivetta	BOS	ATL
74	Max Fried	ATL	@NYM
75	Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	MIA
76	Griffin Canning	LAA	TEX
77	Tyler Anderson	PIT	CHC
78	Michael Pineda	MIN	BAL
79	Domingo German	NYY	TOR
80	Tyler Mahle	CIN	@WAS, @CHC
81	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	MIA
82	JT Brubaker	PIT	COL
83	Antonio Senzatela	COL	@NYM
84	Carlos Martinez	STL	@ARI
85	Miguel Yajure	PIT	CHC
86	Matt Shoemaker	MIN	BAL, KC
87	Mix 12 Reliever
88	Dylan Cease	CWS	BAL
89	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	@PIT
90	Dane Dunning	TEX	@LAA
91	Alex Wood	SF	@LAD
92	Garrett Richards	BOS	ATL
93	Matthew Boyd	DET	CLE
94	Alex Cobb	LAA	@OAK
95	Sonny Gray	CIN	@WAS
96	Hyeon-Jong Yang	TEX	@LAA, @SEA
97	Shane McClanahan	TB	KC
98	Vince Velasquez	PHI	@MIA
99	Jake Arrieta	CHC	@PIT, CIN
100	Brad Keller	KC	@TB, @MIN
101	Martin Perez	BOS	MIA
102	Steven Matz	TOR	@NYY, @CLE
103	Mix 15 Reliever
104	Merrill Kelly	ARI	SF
105	J.A. Happ	MIN	KC
106	Randy Dobnak	MIN	KC
107	Adam Wainwright	STL	@ARI
108	Jordan Yamamoto	NYM	ATL
109	Tarik Skubal	DET	CLE, NYY
110	Chris Flexen	SEA	@OAK
111	Spencer Howard	PHI	@MIA
112	Jameson Taillon	NYY	@DET
113	Luis Garcia	HOU	LAD
114	Justus Sheffield	SEA	TEX
115	Jordan Lyles	TEX	@SEA
116	David Price	LAD	SF
117	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@OAK
118	Kyle Freeland	COL	@NYM, @PIT
119	Luis Castillo	CIN	@CHC
120	Johnny Cueto	SF	@ARI
121	Jake Odorizzi	HOU	SD
122	Jose Quintana	LAA	@OAK
123	John Gant	STL	@CWS
124	Ross Stripling	TOR	TB, @CLE
125	Adrian Houser	MIL	SD
126	Daniel Castano	MIA	PHI
127	Taylor Widener	ARI	STL
128	Jorge Lopez	BAL	@MIN
129	Drew Smyly	ATL	@BOS
130	Casey Mize	DET	NYY
131	Jose Urena	DET	CLE
132	Zach Davies	CHC	CIN
133	Trevor Cahill	PIT	COL
134	Patrick Corbin	WAS	MIL
135	Joe Ross	WAS	CIN
136	Mitch Keller	PIT	COL
137	Bruce Zimmermann	BAL	@CWS
138	Nate Pearson	TOR	@NYY
139	Dean Kremer	BAL	@MIN, @CWS
140	Kris Bubic	KC	@MIN
141	Daniel Lynch	KC	@MIN
142	Brett Anderson	MIL	SD
143	Cody Poteet	MIA	@BOS
144	Sam Hentges	CLE	@DET, TOR
145	Jon Lester	WAS	MIL
146	Trevor Williams	CHC	@PIT
147	Scott Kazmir	SF	@LAD
148	Cal Quantrill	CLE	@DET
149	Jeff Hoffman	CIN	@WAS
150	Matt Harvey	BAL	@CWS
151	Riley Smith	ARI	SF, STL
152	Seth Frankoff	ARI	STL
153	Wil Crowe	PIT	CHC
154	Tony Santillan	CIN	@CHC

American League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Lucas Giolito	CWS	STL, BAL	Walks still too high
2	John Means	BAL	@MIN, @CWS
3	Aaron Civale	CLE	@DET, TOR	Strikeouts beginning to increase
4	Yusei Kikuchi	SEA	@OAK, TEX	ERA should start to come down
5	Lance Lynn	CWS	STL, BAL
6	Gerrit Cole	NYY	@DET
7	Corey Kluber	NYY	TOR, @DET
8	Tyler Glasnow	TB	KC
9	Shane Bieber	CLE	@DET
10	Carlos Rodon	CWS	STL
11	Rich Hill	TB	KC
12	Kyle Gibson	TEX	@SEA
13	Spencer Turnbull	DET	CLE, NYY
14	Hyun Jin Ryu	TOR	@CLE
15	Chris Bassitt	OAK	LAA
16	Dallas Keuchel	CWS	BAL
17	Jose Berrios	MIN	BAL
18	Cole Irvin	OAK	SEA, LAA	Incurred expected K regression, but facing beatable lineups at home
19	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	@OAK	Not a bad pitcher for a slugger
20	Dylan Bundy	LAA	@OAK	Last two vs. BOS and LAD, he'll be fine
21	Zach Plesac	CLE	TOR	Just 6 K last 15 IP
22	Sean Manaea	OAK	LAA
23	Jordan Montgomery	NYY	TOR	Impressive outing against CWS, the best team vs. LHP
24	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	SD
25	Zack Greinke	HOU	LAD
26	Cristian Javier	HOU	SD
27	Ryan Yarbrough	TB	@TOR, PHI
28	Justin Dunn	SEA	TEX
29	Frankie Montas	OAK	SEA, LAA
30	Andrew Heaney	LAA	TEX
31	Robbie Ray	TOR	@NYY
32	James Kaprielian	OAK	SEA	15 K in 10 IP
33	Marco Gonzales	SEA	TEX
34	Mike Minor	KC	@TB
35	Josh Fleming	TB	PHI
36	Mike Foltynewicz	TEX	@SEA
37	Brady Singer	KC	@TB
38	Nick Pivetta	BOS	ATL
39	Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	MIA
40	Griffin Canning	LAA	TEX
41	Michael Pineda	MIN	BAL
42	Domingo German	NYY	TOR
43	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	MIA
44	Matt Shoemaker	MIN	BAL, KC
45	Dylan Cease	CWS	BAL
46	Dane Dunning	TEX	@LAA
47	Garrett Richards	BOS	ATL
48	Matthew Boyd	DET	CLE
49	Alex Cobb	LAA	@OAK
50	Hyeon-Jong Yang	TEX	@LAA, @SEA
51	Shane McClanahan	TB	KC
52	Brad Keller	KC	@TB, @MIN
53	Martin Perez	BOS	MIA
54	Steven Matz	TOR	@NYY, @CLE
55	J.A. Happ	MIN	KC
56	Randy Dobnak	MIN	KC
57	Tarik Skubal	DET	CLE, NYY
58	Chris Flexen	SEA	@OAK
59	Jameson Taillon	NYY	@DET
60	Luis Garcia	HOU	LAD
61	Justus Sheffield	SEA	TEX
62	Jordan Lyles	TEX	@SEA
63	Logan Gilbert	SEA	@OAK
64	AL Reliever
65	Jake Odorizzi	HOU	SD
66	Jose Quintana	LAA	@OAK
67	Ross Stripling	TOR	TB, @CLE
68	Jorge Lopez	BAL	@MIN
69	Casey Mize	DET	NYY
70	Jose Urena	DET	CLE
71	Bruce Zimmermann	BAL	@CWS
72	Nate Pearson	TOR	@NYY
73	Dean Kremer	BAL	@MIN, @CWS
74	Kris Bubic	KC	@MIN
75	Daniel Lynch	KC	@MIN
76	Sam Hentges	CLE	@DET, TOR
77	Cal Quantrill	CLE	@DET
78	Matt Harvey	BAL	@CWS

National League

Rank	Pitcher	TM	OPP	Comment
1	Jacob deGrom	NYM	COL, ATL
2	Max Scherzer	WAS	CIN, MIL
3	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	SD, @WAS
4	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	@HOU, SF
5	Corbin Burnes	MIL	SD, @WAS
6	Jack Flaherty	STL	@CWS, @ARI
7	Joe Musgrove	SD	@MIL, @HOU
8	Kevin Gausman	SF	@ARI, @LAD	27 K with just 3 BB last 20 IP
9	Zach Eflin	PHI	@MIA, @TB	Two great pitching venues boost ranking
10	Walker Buehler	LAD	SF
11	Zack Wheeler	PHI	@TB
12	Trevor Bauer	LAD	@HOU
13	Julio Urias	LAD	SF
14	Trevor Rogers	MIA	PHI, @BOS
15	Charlie Morton	ATL	@BOS, @NYM	ERA starting to correct
16	Aaron Nola	PHI	@MIA	4 HR last 15 IP
17	Yu Darvish	SD	@HOU
18	Ian Anderson	ATL	@NYM
19	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	PHI, @BOS
20	Marcus Stroman	NYM	COL
21	David Peterson	NYM	COL, ATL	Sneaky good 20.1% K-BB%
22	Dinelson Lamet	SD	@MIL
23	Blake Snell	SD	@MIL, @HOU	Threw 6 innings for the first time this season last time out
24	Pablo Lopez	MIA	PHI
25	Madison Bumgarner	ARI	STL
26	Freddy Peralta	MIL	@WAS
27	Chris Paddack	SD	@MIL	Getting back on track
28	German Marquez	COL	@NYM
29	Austin Gomber	COL	@NYM, @PIT	3.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP with 24 K in 22.1 IP since beating by the Bay.
30	Jon Gray	COL	@PIT
31	Adbert Alzolay	CHC	CIN
32	Kwang Hyun Kim	STL	@CWS, @ARI
33	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	COL
34	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	CIN
35	Anthony DeSclafani	SF	@LAD
36	Max Fried	ATL	@NYM
37	Tyler Anderson	PIT	CHC
38	Tyler Mahle	CIN	@WAS, @CHC
39	JT Brubaker	PIT	COL
40	Antonio Senzatela	COL	@NYM
41	Carlos Martinez	STL	@ARI
42	Miguel Yajure	PIT	CHC
43	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	@PIT
44	Alex Wood	SF	@LAD
45	Sonny Gray	CIN	@WAS
46	Vince Velasquez	PHI	@MIA
47	Jake Arrieta	CHC	@PIT, CIN
48	Merrill Kelly	ARI	SF
49	Adam Wainwright	STL	@ARI
50	Jordan Yamamoto	NYM	ATL
51	Spencer Howard	PHI	@MIA
52	David Price	LAD	SF
53	Kyle Freeland	COL	@NYM, @PIT
54	NL Reliever
55	Luis Castillo	CIN	@CHC
56	Johnny Cueto	SF	@ARI
57	John Gant	STL	@CWS
58	Adrian Houser	MIL	SD
59	Daniel Castano	MIA	PHI
60	Taylor Widener	ARI	STL
61	Drew Smyly	ATL	@BOS
62	Zach Davies	CHC	CIN
63	Trevor Cahill	PIT	COL
64	Patrick Corbin	WAS	MIL
65	Joe Ross	WAS	CIN
66	Mitch Keller	PIT	COL
67	Brett Anderson	MIL	SD
68	Cody Poteet	MIA	@BOS
69	Jon Lester	WAS	MIL
70	Trevor Williams	CHC	@PIT
71	Scott Kazmir	SF	@LAD
72	Jeff Hoffman	CIN	@WAS
73	Riley Smith	ARI	SF, STL
74	Seth Frankoff	ARI	STL
75	Wil Crowe	PIT	CHC
76	Tony Santillan	CIN	@CHC

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Todd Zola

@toddzola

Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.

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