Dane Dunning

29-Year-Old PitcherSP

Texas Rangers

2024 Stats

W-L

5-7

ERA

5.31

WHIP

1.44

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Dunning began the 2024 season in the roatation, but was 4-6 with a 4.73 ERA after 12 starts and was pushed to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. Dunning got his strikouets as a starter (26.7% rate) but a 15.1% K-BB% and a 1.7 HR/9 did him in. He also had a .206 average against and a 1.25 WHIP in that time, but struggled mightly to keep runners from scoring due to the homers. The move to the pen did not improve anything as the homers continued, but his strikeouts declined and the league hit .331 against him out of the pen. Dunning, like Chris Bassett, hasn't met a pitch he doesn't like to throw as he threw seven different offerings last season in an effort to find something to work. The problem is nothing worked too well long-term and the league pounced on the mistakes. As bad as 2024 was, 2023 still happened but Dunning's true talent level is a back end starter and for 2023 to happen again, everything has to go his way. That is simply asking too much of someone with his below-average stuff. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 200

DOB 12/20/1994

Drafted 1st Rd 2016

Reaches deal with Texas

PTexas Rangers

November 22, 2024

Dunning signed a one-year, $2.66 million contract with the Rangers on Friday to avoid arbitration, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.

ANALYSIS
Dunning's 2025 salary represents a $670,000 pay cut from 2024, though he'll have opportunities to earn more money through incentives. It's not too surprising to see the 29-year-old righty receive a lower base salary after putting up a career-worst 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 95 innings.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Dane Dunning generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Dane Dunning generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-7%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-2%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-14%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-2%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.269	877	165	91	206	46	5	29
Since 2022vs Right	.250	937	203	66	212	39	1	29
2024vs Left	.263	203	44	23	46	11	1	10
2024vs Right	.258	218	47	17	51	8	0	8
2023vs Left	.270	341	61	33	81	12	2	11
2023vs Right	.233	381	79	22	82	15	1	9
2022vs Left	.271	333	60	35	79	23	2	8
2022vs Right	.265	338	77	27	79	16	0	12
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-5%

ERA at Home

2024

-5%

ERA at Home

2023

-30%

ERA on Road

2022

-36%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.24	1.25	210.0	13	8	0	8.0	2.9	1.6
Since 2022Away	4.44	1.48	211.0	8	14	0	7.8	3.8	0.9
2024Home	5.16	1.39	45.1	2	4	0	9.7	3.2	2.2
2024Away	5.44	1.49	49.2	3	3	0	7.6	4.3	1.3
2023Home	4.44	1.19	77.0	7	2	0	6.0	2.1	1.8
2023Away	3.10	1.32	95.2	5	5	0	8.4	3.5	0.5
2022Home	3.59	1.23	87.2	4	2	0	8.8	3.4	1.2
2022Away	5.62	1.71	65.2	0	6	0	7.0	4.0	1.1
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Dane Dunning compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.28

K/9

8.6

BB/9

3.8

HR/9

1.7

Fastball

89.7 mph

ERA

5.31

WHIP

1.44

BABIP

.309

GB/FB

1.31

Left On Base

68.9%

Exit Velocity

82.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

6.3%

Spin Rate

2129 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

27.6%

Swinging Strike

9.9%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Dane Dunning Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2019

2018

2017

Dunning pushed his way into the Texas rotation early last year when Jacob deGrom was shut down in April because of an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Dunning pitched well enough to continue filling deGrom's shoes in the first half of 2024, with the Rangers also needing coverage for Max Scherzer (back) and Tyler Mahle (elbow) -- both on similar recovery timelines as deGrom. A heavy sinker-slider pitcher who relies more on inducing soft contact than strikeouts, Dunning doesn't have the highest fantasy ceiling at age 29. He should be a nice source of wins, though, as he reprises a regular rotation role with the reigning World Series champions, and he could offer ERA and WHIP help in favorable matchups. Draft him late in deeper mixed leagues. Put him on a streaming watch list in shallower formats.

Dunning had a bit of a Kruger effect in 2022 attempting to be more than his stuff really is. In a perfect world, he is a back-end starter for single league formats, but the only redeeming value he offered in fantasy leagues last season was 137 strikeouts in 153.1 innings of work. Those strikeouts came with significant ratio damage and just 4 wins in 29 starts. His slider remains a very plus pitch for him, but his other offerings lag behind the slider and none of them show any sign of improvement. He did tweak his utilization a bit last season, but there was little change to his overall results. He is not a mixed league option with only one pitch functioning at even an average level. Texas has reshaped its rotation with the additions of Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovalid, likely leaving Dunning to compete with Jake Odorizzi for a potential No. 6 spot and spot starts. Dunning may now begin the campaign as a long reliever.

Dunning throws a collection of pitches, none of which are above average. His modus operandi is keeping opposing hitters off balance and trusting his defense. His favorite weapon of choice is his sinker, so an improved infield defense behind him should help matters somewhat this season. Looking at the fact he also has 30% or greater whiff rates on his slider, changeup and curveball makes us wonder whether he could find more success adjusting his pitch utilization. Like many young pitchers, Dunning leaned on his fastball when behind in the count and the league hit a healthy .351 while slugging .544 off the fastball in those counts. The pieces are here for him to take a step forward with some adjustments, but the overall lack of pure stuff limits how high he can climb.

Dunning missed the entire 2019 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery but was thought of highly enough within the White Sox organization to earn a big-league callup last season despite having never pitched beyond Double-A. The vote of confidence paid off as Dunning enjoyed a fine rookie campaign, posting a 3.97 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over seven starts (34 innings). The numbers mostly hold up; the right-hander's 4.16 xFIP closely trailed his ERA and his 24.6 K% was in line with his minor-league rate. Though Dunning doesn't possess a dominant fastball, he mixes up four pitches well, which helped him generate a satisfactory 11.4 SwStr% last season. His 9.2 BB% needs to come down and the .239 BABIP is unsustainable, but Dunning's feel for pitching provides him a moderate floor. He should fill a mid-rotation spot for Texas, who parted with Lance Lynn to land Dunning in an offseason trade.

Dunning was shut down in late June with a right elbow strain, but was back for instructional league, so he appears to have avoided Tommy John surgery, for now. Prior to the injury, he was cruising in his first taste of Double-A, with a 2.40 FIP, 26.3 K% and a groundball rate just a hair under 50%. That success oversells his stuff to some degree. He has a legitimate four-pitch mix, but lacks a the type of electric arsenal we would typically associate with a pitcher who has struck out more than 10 batters per nine at every full-season stop (which he has done). His low-90s sinker is effective, and his slider can flash plus, but with just fringe-average command, it's the type of repertoire typically found in a No. 4 starter. Already 24 years old and without a significantly high ceiling, Dunning does not need to be universally rostered in dynasty leagues, particularly with last year's elbow injury portending the eventual need for some sort of procedure.

The third returning piece for Chicago in the Adam Eaton trade, Dunning was unproven heading into 2017, but he quickly established himself as a future rotation piece. He has a solid four-pitch mix, and could end up with anywhere from three to zero plus pitches. His ability to sequence and locate his offerings allowed him to dominate hitters at High-A. Dunning ranked third in the Carolina League in strikeout rate (26.4 percent) and K-BB (19.4 percent). Double-A should present a valuable challenge, as his repertoire may not lead to the same gaudy strikeout totals against more advanced hitters. Entering his age-23 season, there won't be much margin for error in the minds of dynasty-league owners, as most of his contemporaries are already at Triple-A or knocking on the door of the big leagues. If he continues to command his mid-90s sinking fastball and his slider and curveball continue to miss bats, a future No. 3 starter could quickly come into focus.

On a loaded pitching staff at the University of Florida last season, Dunning got somewhat overlooked, but he showed enough upside for the Nationals to nab him with the 29th overall pick in the draft. A 6-foot-4 right-hander, his success on the mound comes more from the deception inherent in his mechanics and killer changeup than it does from an overpowering fastball, but that arsenal allowed him to make a solid pro debut between the GCL and short-season Low-A. Whether he's able to become a reliable starting pitcher in the majors depends on the development of his breaking pitch, a slurvy offering which at this point lags well behind his low 90s fastball and change, but his college experience out of the bullpen will serve him well if that ends up being his ultimate role. Traded to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton deal, the 21-year-old is still a few years away from being a factor for Chicago, so he's get plenty of time and plenty of chances to work on that breaking pitch before his role is finalized.

More Fantasy News

Strikes out five in no-decision

PTexas Rangers

September 21, 2024

Dunning did not factor into the decision in Saturday's 8-4 loss to the Mariners, allowing two runs on seven hits and one walk with five strikeouts over 3.2 innings.