NFL Game Previews: Week 7 Matchups

New England at N.Y. Jets (+9.5), 42.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Are the Patriots headed for another undefeated regular season? The odds are starting to look good, as much as the odds for something like that can ever look good. This is arguably the last game of their easy stretch to begin the year, but the hard part doesn't even look as difficult to navigate as it did before Patrick Mahomes got hurt. The defense continues to put up astounding numbers, but it's also been matched up with an astoundingly bad array of QBs, and Sam Darnold this week is arguably their toughest test to date. If the defense does develop a chink or two in its armor, Tom Brady could be forced to put up points with a receiving corps stripped down to the bone due to injuries, as all his top options are banged up. I'm sure he can make do. Darnold did look sharp in last week's upset of the Cowboys, with Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder both thriving now that they had a real QB tossing them passes. The question now is whether Le'Veon Bell can get going without the weight of having to carry the offense on his shoulders. He saw plenty of work as a checkdown option for Luke Falk, but he has yet to rush for more than 68 yards in a game as a Jet.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Rex Burkhead (questionable, foot), WR Julian Edelman (questionable, chest), WR Josh Gordon (questionable, knee), WR Phillip Dorsett (questionable, hamstring), S Patrick Chung (questionable, chest)

NYJ injuries: WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, hamstring), TE Chris Herndon (questionable, hamstring), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), LG Kelechi Osemele (doubtful, shoulder), LG Alex Lewis (questionable, neck), C Ryan Kalil (questionable, shoulder), RG Brian Winters (questionable, shoulder), LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, groin)

NE DFS chalk: Patriots DST (first in scoring defense, first in takeaways, first in sack percentage, NYJ 31st in scoring, 31st in sack percentage allowed)

NYJ DFS chalk: none

NE DFS tournament plays: none

NYJ DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: NE has only allowed four red-zone possessions all year, and one RZ touchdown, both tops in the league; NYJ are 32nd with six red-zone possessions, and 31st with four RZ touchdowns

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 NE, average score 27-15 NE, average margin of victory 14 points. NE has won seven straight meetings by an average score of 30-10.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Sony Michel grinds out 60 yards and a touchdown, while James White adds 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Brady throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, hitting Ben Watson and Jakobi Meyers. Bell pops for 100 combined yards and a score. Darnold throws for 220 yards and a TD to Anderson. Patriots, 31-14
 

Miami (+17) at Buffalo, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Fish dodged a bullet last week, managing to lose by only one point and keeping their perfectly imperfect record intact. The Bengals are also winless and looking pretty feeble, which means their Week 16 meeting could easily be the game that decides who gets the top pick in the 2020 draft. Don't be surprised if Miami's front office trades anybody not nailed down before the deadline just to make sure they don't accidentally back into a win somewhere. Coach Brian Flores might be messing with the plan by handing the starting job back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, though — sure, he's not good or reliable, but he does have gunslinging upside than Josh Rosen has yet to display in the NFL, and there's always the possibility of a revenge game against one of his many former employers this week. The Bills shouldn't give this one away, though. They're mostly healthy, coming out of their bye week, and as with any AFC East rivalry that doesn't involve the Patriots, history suggests neither side should take anything for granted.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: C Daniel Kilgore (out, knee), CB Xavien Howard (questionable, knee), S Reshad Jones (out, chest)

BUF injuries: none

MIA DFS chalk: none

BUF DFS chalk: Frank Gore (MIA 31st in rushing yards allowed per game, 30th in rushing DVOA), John Brown (MIA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 31st in DVOA against deep throws), Bills DST (fourth in scoring defense, MIA 32nd in scoring, 30th in sack percentage allowed)

MIA DFS tournament plays: none

BUF DFS tournament plays: Josh Allen (MIA t-29th in passing TDs allowed, 32nd in QB rating against), Devin Singletary / T.J. Yeldon (see Gore, MIA 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Dawson Knox / Tyler Kroft (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: MIA is 30th in third-down offense at 25 percent; BUF is fifth in third-down defense at 30.6 percent 

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BUF, average score 27-20 BUF, average margin of victory 12 points. Prior to last year's 42-17 BUF win in Week 17, the last five meetings had been decided by a single score.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Kenyan Drake leads the MIA backfield with 50 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 220 yards and a pick-six to Jordan Poyer. Singletary racks up 80 yards and a touchdown, while Gore adds 50 yards and a TD. Allen throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Brown while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Bills, 31-3
 

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (+3.5), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Jags may be packing it in after losing two straight and falling to the basement in the AFC South, finally trading Jalen Ramsey once the desperate Rams met their exorbitant asking price. The Jacksonville defense hasn't exactly been a strength this season anyway, and it's fair to wonder whether a pending free agent like Yannick Ngakoue or pricey vet like Calais Campbell might be the next guy out the door. In the meantime Leonard Fournette keeps carrying the load on offense — he's third in the league in rushing yards and scrimmage yards, which is a good role to have heading into a clash with Cincinnati's NFL-worst run defense. The Bengals remain winless, and while four of those losses have been by six points or less, it's hard to find any excuse for losing at home to the Cards. A.J. Green still isn't practicing, and left tackle Cordy Glenn recovered from his concussion only to get slapped with a one-game suspension by the team for mysterious internal disciplinary reasons, so there's no cavalry coming this week to help out Andy Dalton. Oh, and now the team is missing both its starting cornerbacks.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR Dede Westbrook (questionable, shoulder), TE Geoff Swaim (out, concussion)

CIN injuries: WR Green (out, ankle), LT Cordy Glenn (out, suspension), LT Andre Smith (out, ankle), DE Carlos Dunlap, (doubtful, knee), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (out, knee), CB William Jackson III (out, shoulder)

JAC DFS chalk: Fournette (CIN 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CIN DFS chalk: none

JAC DFS tournament plays: Gardner Minshew (CIN 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QBs), D.J. Chark (CIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th in DVOA against deep throws), Jaguars DST (fifth in pressure percentage, CIN 28th in scoring)

CIN DFS tournament plays: Joe Mixon (JAC 31st in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)

Key stat: CIN 32nd in red-zone offense, scoring TDs on 31.3 percent (5-for-16) of RZ possessions; JAC is sixth in red-zone defense (47.4 percent)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Fournette rumbles for 130 combined yards and two TDs. Minshew throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Chark. Mixon picks up 70 yards and a score. Dalton throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Boyd but gets picked off twice. Jaguars, 30-20

Minnesota at Detroit (+1), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

How's this for life in the NFC North — the Lions are .500 (2-2-1), and in last place. The Vikings have won two straight, thanks in large part to Kirk Cousins waking up. Minnesota's defense has been as advertised, allowing no more than 21 points in any game so far, so the team's fortunes have rested entirely on Cousins and the offense — they've scored at least 28 points in their four wins, and a combined 22 in their two losses. Dalvin Cook, at least, has been a rock, finding the end zone in five of six games and rushing for 100 yards in four of six. Win, lose or draw, Detroit's kept it competitive this year, as every game they've played has been decided by four points or less. Matthew Stafford's having a good time throwing to Kenny Golladay (other options, maybe not so much) and Kerryon Johnson is still in the "flashing his upside" stage of his career rather than being a consistent force, but it's been the defense that's held things together. The Lions sit seventh in QB rating and tied for fifth in offensive TDs allowed (with, among other teams, the Vikings), and Matt Patricia has the team playing the style of ball he likes — close to the vest and in your face. Whether that style can translate into long-term success, of course, is still up in the air.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: none

DET injuries: RT Rick Wagner (questionable, concussion), CB Darius Slay (questionable, hamstring)

MIN DFS chalk: Cook (DET 28th in YPC allowed)

DET DFS chalk: none

MIN DFS tournament plays: Cousins (DET 28th in passing yards allowed per game)

DET DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: MIN is eighth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 63.2 percent (12-for-19) of RZ possessions; DET is fifth in red-zone defense at 45 percent (9-for-20)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 19-16 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. MIN has won three straight meetings by an average score of 27-14

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Cook rambles for 90 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 270 yards and TDs to Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph but gets picked off twice. Johnson gains 70 combined yards. Stafford throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Golladay and J.D. McKissic. Lions, 23-21
 

Oakland (+5.5) at Green Bay, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Raiders are 3-2 and finally appear to be buying into Jon Gruden's scheme, though those wins look less impressive when you consider the QBs they beat were Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett and Chase Daniel. Josh Jacobs is growing into his No. 1 role in the backfield — he's seen multiple targets in three straight games — but Derek Carr has become has become the ultimate dinker and dunker, completing 71.1 percent of his passes with a 6.4 YPA the last four games. The only QB who's started every game this year with a YPA in the same neighborhood is Brissett — the rest of the list includes the likes of Eli Manning and a hobbled Cam Newton. Aaron Rodgers, by contrast, has no trouble still stretching the field; he only needs to worry about his receivers actually catching the ball. The Packers three top wideouts are banged up at the moment (four, if you count Jimmy Graham), forcing Rodgers to target players he probably doesn't have a lot of confidence in. The running game is also in flux, as Aaron Jones' ball security issues last week allowed Jamaal Williams to shove his way back into a possible timeshare. Even with the injuries, there's still enough talent here to get the job done, but it would help if the defense returned to its early season form — after not allowing more than 16 points in any of the first three games, it's given up an average of 26.7 points over the last three.

The Skinny

OAK injuries: WR Tyrell Williams (out, foot), TE Darren Waller (questionable, foot), RG Gabe Jackson (questionable, knee), LT Trent Brown (doubtful, calf), LB Vontaze Burfict (out, suspension)

GB injuries: QB Rodgers (questionable, knee), WR Davante Adams (out, toe), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (questionable, ankle), WR Geronimo Allison (doubtful, concussion), TE Graham (questionable, ankle), CB Kevin King (questionable, knee)

OAK DFS chalk: none

GB DFS chalk: Valdes-Scantling (OAK 28th in DVOA vs. WR1, 28th in DVOA against deep throws)

OAK DFS tournament plays: none

GB DFS tournament plays: Jake Kumerow / Allen Lazard (OAK 30th in DVOA vs. WR2, 28th in DVOA against deep throws)

Key stat: GB is fifth in completion percentage allowed at 57.9 percent, and is one of five defenses with more INTs than TDs allowed (6:7 TD:INT)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Jacobs gallops for 110 combined yards and a TD. Carr throws for 210 yards and a score to Waller. Jones gains 60 scrimmage yards and a touchdown while Williams adds 70 combined yards. Rodgers throws for 300 yards and scores to Kumerow and Graham. Packers, 30-14

L.A. Rams at Atlanta (+3), 54.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Rams' season is arguably hanging by a thread as the Niners and Seahawks threaten to pull away  in the NFC West, so it's easy to see what prompted the Jalen Ramsey deal. On the other hand, one cornerback isn't going to fix all the problems on this defense, no matter how good he is, and the price they paid to get him was huge — hemorrhaging that kind of draft capital can help slam a championship window closed a lot sooner than anticipated. Jared Goff can still post big numbers against soft secondaries (like, say, a Falcons unit allowing 271.2 passing yards a game, 27th in the league) but until he and Sean McVay figure out how to torch stiffer opposition again, it's hard to see the Rams climbing back into contention. Atlanta's in worse shape, already sitting four back of New Orleans in the NFC South, but that's largely the fault of the defense. The one week the Falcons held the opponent to less than 24 points is the one game they won, and they've lost their last two by a combined score of 87-65. Matt Ryan's doing everything he can — he's topped 300 passing yards in every contest this year, and tossed multiple TDs in five of six — but it just hasn't been enough to overcome the drag of that defense.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Todd Gurley (questionable, quad), RB Malcolm Brown (doubtful, ankle), LG Joe Noteboom (IR, knee), LB Clay Matthews (out, jaw), CB Aqib Talib (IR, ribs)

ATL injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, hip), LG James Carpenter (questionable, knee), CB Desmond Trufant (out, toe)

LAR DFS chalk: Cooper Kupp (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Robert Woods (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws)

ATL DFS chalk: none

LAR DFS tournament plays: Goff (ATL 30th in QB rating against), Brandin Cooks (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR3, 32nd in DVOA against deep throws)

ATL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: ATL is t-29th in red-zone defense, allowing TDs on 66.7 percent (16-for-24) of opposition possessions; LAR is 10th in red-zone offense at 62.5 percent (15-for-24)

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Gurley starts and runs for 60 yards and a touchdown, while Darrell Henderson adds 70 scrimmage yards. Goff throws for 350 yards and TDs to Kupp and Woods, with Cooks topping 100 yards. Devonta Freeman gains 100 combined yards and a score. Ryan throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, two to Calvin Ridley and one to Julio (who tops 100 yards), but a first-half safety by Dante Fowler Jr. proves to be the difference. Rams, 32-31
 

Houston (+1) at Indianapolis, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Last week's interceptions were a rarity for Deshaun Watson, but the heroics weren't. His stats over his last 16 regular-season games are extraordinary: 70.6 percent completion rate, 4,011 passing yards, 29:5 TD:INT, 8.2 YPA. Oh yeah, and 512 yards and nine TDs on the ground for good measure. This game is for the early lead in the AFC South, and these are probably the two teams that will be fighting for the crown at the end of the year too — the Jags are fading and the Titans just resorted to Ryan Tannehill at QB — so Watson should be primed for a big performance, especially if he has to bail out a banged-up secondary. The Colts are still riding high off their Week 5 win over the Chiefs, though, and they got the best possible news over their bye when Darius Leonard was cleared through the concussion protocol. The team's defense has suffered without the All-Pro linebacker, particularly on the ground, and his return after a three-game absence should give the unit a huge boost.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RT Tytus Howard (out, knee), CB Johnathan Joseph (questionable, hamstring), CB Bradley Roby (questionable, hamstring)

IND injuries: DE Justin Houston (questionable, calf), CB Pierre Desir (questionable, abdomen), CB Kenny Moore (out, knee) 

HOU DFS chalk: none

IND DFS chalk: none

HOU DFS tournament plays: Carlos Hyde (IND 29th in YPC allowed, 28th in rushing DVOA)

IND DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: HOU is first in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 71.4 percent (15-for-21) of RZ possessions; IND is t-29th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent (10-for-15)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-4 IND including postseason, average score 23-19 IND, average margin of victory six points. Prior to IND's 21-7 win in last year's Wild Card game, the last 10 meetings had been decided by single digits, nine of them by a single score.

Weather forecast: indoor

The Scoop

Hyde grinds out 60 yards. Watson throws for 330 yards and three TDs, hitting DeAndre Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) twice and Kenny Stills once. Marlon Mack picks up 90 combined yards and a score. Jacoby Brissett throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to T.Y. Hilton. Texans, 23-17
 

San Francisco at Washington (+10), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

You can nitpick about the state of the teams they've been beating if you want, but the Niners have looked pretty legit as one of the only two undefeated teams left in the NFL after they man-handled the Rams last week. It's probably time we start paying attention to Robert Saleh's work as the defensive coordinator — now in his third year in San Francisco, he finally has a pass rush potent enough to make his scheme click. Kyle Shanahan's run-heavy offense deserves a little credit too, though it didn't look quite as dangerous in Week 6 with both starting offensive tackles and thumper Kyle Juszczyk out of action. Fortunately, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida now face one of the weakest defense in the league. Washington is 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and 23rd in passing yards allowed, but those rankings are marvels compared to how awful the offense has been. Jay Gruden's sacking didn't change their fortunes much, either — sure, the team won last week, but edging the tanking Dolphins by one measly point is whatever the opposite of a moral victory is. At some point the front office will give the OK for Bill Callahan to hand the reins to Dwayne Haskins, but for now Case Keenum will continue to take a pounding in the pocket. In fact, given Washington's upcoming schedule, Keenum's probably stuck with the job until after the Week 10 bye — if Haskins wasn't ready to face the Patriots or Niners, he won't be ready for the Vikings or Bills either.

The Skinny

SF injuries: TE George Kittle (questionable, groin), LT Joe Staley (out, lower leg), RT Mike McGlinchey (out, knee), DE Dee Ford (questionable, quad)

WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (out, toe), TE Jordan Reed (IR, concussion), TE Vernon Davis (out, concussion), LT Trent Williams (out, contract dispute), CB Josh Norman (questionable, thigh)

SF DFS chalk: 49ers DST (second in scoring defense, third in sack percentage, second in pressure percentage)

WAS DFS chalk: none

SF DFS tournament plays: Jimmy Garoppolo (WAS t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Dante Pettis (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: WAS is 31st in third-down offense, converting 23.4 percent of attempts; SF is fourth in third-down defense at 29.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 10-12 mph wind, 75-90 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Coleman zips for 90 combined yards and a TD, while Breida adds 70 scrimmage yards and a touchdown of his own. Garoppolo throws for 240 yards and scores to Kittle and Pettis. Adrian Peterson gets held to 50 yards. Keenum throws for 210 yards. 49ers, 31-6
 

Arizona (+3) at N.Y. Giants, 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Cards have won two straight, both times proving to be just a little less dysfunctional than the teams they were playing, and that's a skill that could easily be useful again in this one. Kyler Murray continues to tease his sky-high upside — he's the first QB in NFL history to complete at least 20 passes in each of his first six games, and in every start he's either thrown for 300 yards, thrown for multiple touchdowns, or run for a TD, though he has yet to check all three boxes in the same game. The backfield has also added a weapon to the mix, as Chase Edmonds has scored in consecutive games, just in time to take some of the load off an aching David Johnson. The Giants are in much the same boat — 2-0 against teams with issues of their own, but 0-4 against playoff contenders with none of the games being close (losing by two touchdowns to the Bills was as competitive as they got). This might be the healthiest unit Daniel Jones has had to work with, though — Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are back, and Golden Tate is up to speed. The rookie QB has been playing too fast and loose with the ball, throwing six picks in the last three games, but an Arizona defense that has yet to come up with an interception this season could be the cure for that, assuming Patrick Peterson doesn't make an immediate impact in his return from a suspension.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: RB Johnson (questionable, ankle), WR Christian Kirk (questionable, ankle)

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (out, concussion)

ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (NYG 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Larry Fitzgerald (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

NYG DFS chalk: Barkley (ARI 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tate (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Engram (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS tournament plays: Murray (NYG 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 30th in rushing TDs allowed to QBs), Edmonds (see DJ), Damiere Byrd (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NYG DFS tournament plays: Jones (ARI 31st in passing TDs allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed per game, 31st in QB rating against), Darius Slayton (ARI 29th in DVOA against deep throws)

Key stat: Murray posted a 9.2 YPA last week, his best performance of the season in that category; NYG are 31st in the league at 9.3 YPA allowed

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

DJ racks up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Edmonds adds 60 yards. Murray throws for 260 yards and TDs to Fitzgerald and Byrd while running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Barkley returns with a bang, gaining 120 combined yards and a TD. Jones runs for 50 yards and throws for 240 yards, hitting Engram and Slayton for scores. Cardinals, 28-27
 

L.A. Chargers (+2) at Tennessee, 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Melvin Gordon's return to action hasn't exactly lit a fire under the Bolts. Not only has the team lost both games with Gordon in the lineup, the running game is suddenly stuck in neutral — the Chargers' offense gained only 67 rushing yards in those two games combined, less than their single-game total any week prior to Gordon's return. Philip Rivers and the aerial attack have been fine, especially with Hunter Henry now healthy, but they aren't built to win on the strength of Rivers' 37-year-old arm. At least they have a reliable QB, though. The Titans pulled the plug on Marcus Mariota after he threw two picks last week in Denver, even though they were his first INTs of the year — his inability to move the offense consistently likely had more to do with the benching. Ryan Tannehill now gets a chance to lock down the starting gig, and while he was never anything better than average in Miami, Tennessee would probably settle for average at this point after losing four of their last five under Mariota. Whether the switch means receivers like Corey Davis and A.J. Brown will actually get a chance to show what they can do remains to be seen, but Davis at least got some downfield looks from Tannehill in the second half last week.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: K Michael Badgley (questionable, groin), DE Melvin Ingram (doubtful, hamstring)

TEN injuries: TE Delanie Walker (questionable, ankle), LB Cameron Wake (questionable, hamstring), LB Jayon Brown (doubtful, groin)

LAC DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS chalk: Dion Lewis (LAC 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LAC DFS tournament plays: Geremy Davis (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: LAC is fifth in third-down offense at 48.1 percent; TEN is third in third-down defense at 27.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Gordon manages 50 yards, while Austin Ekeler gains 70 combined yards. Rivers throws for 260 yards but can't find the end zone. Derrick Henry thunders for 80 yards, and Lewis adds 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Tannehill gets picks off twice but also throws for 270 yards and two more scores, finding Davis and Brown. Titans, 27-15
 

New Orleans (+3.5) at Chicago, 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I guess we're about to find out just how good Teddy Bridgewater actually is. He's been quietly impressive as Drew Brees' replacement so far, but now he'll have to figure out how to win without Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Latavius Murray is solid, but he doesn't have Kamara's game-changing electricity, and a matchup with one of the league's stingiest run defenses (third in YPC allowed, fifth yards per game allowed) doesn't bode well for him. The Bears have also had their bye week to regroup and try to figure out how Derek Carr became the first QB this year to post more than 15 points against them. Chicago's got their own issues on offense, though. Mitchell Trubisky will be back, but he's only an upgrade because Chase Daniel did very, very little in his place, and Trubisky probably isn't even 100 percent healthy — he'll be wearing a harness to support his left (non-throwing) shoulder, and his ability to handle shotgun snaps that aren't right on the money could be affected. Speaking of money, I rarely do this because it always blows up in my face, but I can't see how the under in this game isn't the Super-Duper Titanium Ultra-Safe Lock of the Week, unless the Bears forgot how to defense while they were off and David Montgomery makes this his coming-out party.

The Skinny

NO injuries: QB Brees (out, thumb), RB Kamara (out, ankle), WR Tre'Quan Smith (out, ankle), TE Jared Cook (out, ankle)

CHI injuries: QB Mitchell Trubisky (questionable, shoulder), RG Kyle Long (IR, hip), RG Ted Larsen (questionable, knee)

NO DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS chalk: none

NO DFS tournament plays: Saints DST (third in pressure percentage, CHI 30th in scoring)

CHI DFS tournament plays: Bears DST (third in scoring defense, first in pressure percentage)

Key stat: NO is 27th in red-zone offense, scoring TDs on 44.4 percent (8-for-18) of RZ possessions; CHI is t-8th in red-zone defense at 50 percent (8-for-16)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Murray bangs out 70 yards. Bridgewater throws for 230 yards and a TD to Ted Ginn. Montgomery totes up 90 combined yards and a score. Trubisky throws for less than 200 yards but tosses a touchdown to Allen Robinson and minimizes his mistakes. Bears, 17-16
 

Baltimore (+3.5) at Seattle, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Given the state of the Steelers and Browns, the Ravens seem perched fairly comfortably atop the AFC North with a two-game lead. You might even say Lamar Jackson is (puts on sunglasses) ... running away with the division. After last week's huge performance on the ground against the hapless Bengals, he has 460 rushing yards through six games. Michael Vick is the only QB in history with a 1,000-yard rushing season, holding the record at 1,039. Jackson's on pace for more than 1,200. It helps that defenses can't key on him — Mark Ingram is headed for more than 1,100 rushing yards of his own, and already has seven rushing TDs. This week they're facing one of the few teams who likes to run the ball as much as they do — Baltimore is second in carries at 37.2 per game, while Seattle is third at 32 per game (San Francisco is first). What the Seahawks have that the Ravens don't is an MVP-caliber passer. Russell Wilson's magical campaign continued in last week's win over the Browns, and since we're talking paces, he's on pace for career highs in completion percentage, passing yards and passing TDs, and, oh yeah, he hasn't been picked off yet. Baltimore shored up their secondary this week by adding Marcus Peters, but given the way Wilson's playing, they could play with 12 men on the field every play and it might not matter.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, ankle), LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, knee), LB Patrick Onwuasor (questionable, ankle), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, knee)

SEA injuries: TE Will Dissly (out, Achilles), LT Duane Brown (doubtful, biceps), RG D.J. Fluker (questionable, hamstring), DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, ankle)

BAL DFS chalk: none

SEA DFS chalk: none

BAL DFS tournament plays: Ingram (SEA t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)

SEA DFS tournament plays: Chris Carson (BAL t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Luke Willson (BAL 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SEA is third in red-zone offense, scoring TDs on 70.8 percent (17-for-24) of RZ possessions; BAL is t-17th in red-zone defense at 55 percent (11-for-20)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 35-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Ingram runs for 70 yards. Jackson dashes for 40 yards and a TD and throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Mark Andrews. Carson gains 80 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 290 yards and three TDs, finding DK Metcalf twice and Willson once. Seahawks, 34-20
 

Philadelphia (+3) at Dallas, 49.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

If you simply go by momentum, the Eagles have this one in the bag. Philly did lose last week in Minnesota, but that just dropped them back to .500. Carson Wentz has shown flashes of his 2017 form, the backfield has been productive, and the defense is ... well, it can stop the run, anyway. The Cowboys, meanwhile, has dropped three straight after last week's frankly embarrassing loss to the Jets, and the fanbase has flipped from expecting a Super Bowl win to wanting Jason Garrett's head in a heartbeat. Injuries, both along the offensive line and in the receiving corps, have played a big part in that slump, and neither unit is likely to be at 100 percent for this one. Ezekiel Elliott has been a rock, running for at least 100 yards or a TD in every game, but Dak Prescott's 2:4 TD:INT in those three losses has been tough to swallow.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB Darren Sproles (out, quad), WR DeSean Jackson (out, abdomen), LT Jason Peters (out, knee), LB Nigel Bradham (out, ankle), CB Ronald Darby (questionable, hamstring)

DAL injuries: WR Amari Cooper (questionable, quad), WR Randall Cobb (questionable, back), LT Tyron Smith (questionable, ankle), RG Zack Martin (questionable, back), RT La'el Collins (questionable, knee), CB Byron Jones (questionable, hamstring)

PHI DFS chalk: Zach Ertz (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. TE) 

DAL DFS chalk: none

PHI DFS tournament plays: none

DAL DFS tournament plays: Prescott (PHI 29th in passing yards allowed per game)

Key stat: PHI is third in third-down offense, converting 50 percent of attempts; DAL is second in third-down defense at 25.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DAL, average score 23-21 PHI, average margin of victory 12 points. DAL has won three straight meetings, all by a single score.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, 13 mph wind, 0-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Miles Sanders leads the Eagles backfield with 80 scrimmage yards, while Jordan Howward adds 50 yards. Wentz throws for 240 yards and a TD to Ertz. Elliott gets held to 60 combined yards but does score. Prescott throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Michael Gallup, who tops 100 yards, and Tavon Austin. Cowboys, 27-16

Kansas City at Denver (+3), 48.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

When you're forecasting every single game, you have to take your victories where you can. Last week I not only nailed the final score in the Monday nighter (no mean feat when it was 23-22), but I correctly predicted a Devin Bush fumble return for a TD, so even if my actual overall record wasn't very impressive, trust me, I crushed it. Now, if only I could figure out Thursday nighters ... The Chiefs' march to an easy AFC West title has hit a major snag, as they've lost consecutive games and frankly didn't look dominant in their last win against the Lions. Patrick Mahomes hasn't completed more than 60 percent of his passes or posted a YPA above a distressingly mortal 8.2 since Week 3, though getting Tyreek Hill back last week helped him regain his multi-TD swagger. The issue is really the defense, though — it can't seem to stop anybody, forcing Mahomes to do more than even he's capable of. The Broncos are on the opposite trajectory, winning their last two after an 0-4 start, largely on the strength of a resurgent defense. Their pass rush showed some life last week with seven sacks and they chased Marcus Mariota from the game, but the Titans have made a few front sevens look good this year. If Denver can keep the K.C. offense off the field with its ground game and not require Joe Flacco to match Mahomes bomb for bomb — basically what the Colts did to the Chiefs two weeks ago — the upset is definitely on the table.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (out, hamstring), LT Eric Fisher (out, sports hernia), LG Andrew Wylie (out, ankle), DT Chris Jones (out, groin), CB Bashaud Breeland (questionable, personal)

DEN injuries: RT Ja'Wuan James (questionable, knee)

KC DFS chalk: none

DEN DFS chalk: Phillip Lindsay / Royce Freeman (KC 30th in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed per game, 31st in rushing DVOA)

KC DFS tournament plays: none

DEN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: KC is third in sack percentage allowed (3.3 percent); DEN is 22nd in sack percentage (5.7 percent)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 KC, average score 26-22 KC, average margin of victory nine points. KC has won seven straight meetings, after having lost seven straight prior to the current streak.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Damien Williams leads the K.C. backfield with 60 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Hill and Travis Kelce. Lindsay gains 80 scrimmage yards and a score, while Freeman adds 50 yards. Flacco throws for 230 yards and a late touchdown to Courtland Sutton but misfires on the two-point attempt to cut short a comeback. Chiefs, 24-19
 

Last week's record: 9-5, 6-8 ATS, 5-7-2 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 53-38-1, 40-52 ATS, 44-44-4 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 689-422-5, 510-564-42 ATS, 410-433-17 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)