NFL Game Previews: Week 5 Matchups

NFL Game Previews: Week 5 Matchups

This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.

Cleveland (+3.5) at San Francisco, 46.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

It's a Monday night clash of division leaders. The Browns' offense came to life last week against the Ravens, but they did it without Baker Mayfield really catching fire. He did throw for a season-high 342 yards, but he has yet to toss more than one TD in any game this year, which is far from the explosive performance expected from him when the team brought aboard Odell Beckham. Instead it was Nick Chubb who carried the load — athletically, he finally looks like the guy he was in college before his devastating knee injury, and it's hard to see what role Kareem Hunt's going to have in this backfield in the second half except as the guy who gives Chubb a breather now and then. The Niners are arguably the most surprising undefeated team left, and while a cushy schedule and early bye have helped, San Francisco is still showing signs of putting together a fairly stout defense, which would make it a serious threat once coach Kyle Shanahan gets the offense rolling. A healthier set of wideouts around him has cut into George Kittle's target volume and production, but defenses deserve a little credit for making sure he isn't beating them — after leading the entire NFL, not just tight ends, in yards after catch per reception (10.2) last year, he's posted a much more pedestrian 6.4 in 2019, which puts him behind

Cleveland (+3.5) at San Francisco, 46.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

It's a Monday night clash of division leaders. The Browns' offense came to life last week against the Ravens, but they did it without Baker Mayfield really catching fire. He did throw for a season-high 342 yards, but he has yet to toss more than one TD in any game this year, which is far from the explosive performance expected from him when the team brought aboard Odell Beckham. Instead it was Nick Chubb who carried the load — athletically, he finally looks like the guy he was in college before his devastating knee injury, and it's hard to see what role Kareem Hunt's going to have in this backfield in the second half except as the guy who gives Chubb a breather now and then. The Niners are arguably the most surprising undefeated team left, and while a cushy schedule and early bye have helped, San Francisco is still showing signs of putting together a fairly stout defense, which would make it a serious threat once coach Kyle Shanahan gets the offense rolling. A healthier set of wideouts around him has cut into George Kittle's target volume and production, but defenses deserve a little credit for making sure he isn't beating them — after leading the entire NFL, not just tight ends, in yards after catch per reception (10.2) last year, he's posted a much more pedestrian 6.4 in 2019, which puts him behind the Jack Doyles and Dawson Knoxes of the world. If Shanahan spent his off week trying to find ways to scheme his stud TE into a little more open space, he could be poised for a breakout, even in a matchup that isn't obviously plus (CLE is 10th in DVOA vs. TE).

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (out, suspension), WR Rashard Higgins (questionable, knee), RT Chris Hubbard (questionable, foot), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, hamstring)

SF injuries: RB Tevin Coleman (questionable, ankle), LT Joe Staley (out, leg), DE Dee Ford (questionable, quad)

CLE DFS chalk: none

SF DFS chalk: none

CLE DFS tournament plays: none

SF DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: SF is the only team in the league not to allow a rushing touchdown yet

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Chubb gains 70 yards. Mayfield throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Beckham and Antonio Callaway. Matt Breida leads the Niners backfield with 90 combined yards and a score. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, finding Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Dante Pettis. 49ers, 31-20
 

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Carolina, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The AFC South is kind of a hilariously mediocre muddle at the moment. Not only is every team at 2-2, but two (the Jags and Texans) have point differentials of zero. In other words, things are wide open, which is just the way Gardner Minshew likes it. The rookie phenom tweaked his knee last week, but he still has a 7:1 TD:INT through his first four NFL games, impressive by any measure. Jacksonville will continue to let Leonard Fournette be the focal point of the offense, but as long as Minshew can keep making plays when required, they'll be a threat to anyone. Remarkably, he'll be the most experienced QB in this game, as Kyle Allen only has three career games under his belt, including Week 17 of last year. Allen has one good game against the Cards and one meh effort against the Texans, making it unclear what the Panthers will get from him Sunday. What they can likely count on is another extremely productive afternoon for Christian McCaffrey. The third-year back leads the NFL in touches and scrimmage yards, and it's not even close — CMac has 19 more touches than Nick Chubb (111 to 92), and 105 more yards than Dalvin Cook (629 to 524 ... Fournette is third at 518). Despite their star-studded front seven, the Jaguars have not impressed against running backs in 2019, ranking 23rd in rush DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA against RBs. Of course, the Panthers haven't been much better, ranking 29th in rush DVOA and 27th in YPC allowed (but fourth in pass DVOA vs. RBs). In all likelihood, this one will be decided in the trenches.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: CB Jalen Ramsey (out, back)

CAR injuries: QB Cam Newton, (out, foot), LT Greg Little (out, concussion), RG Trai Turner (out, ankle), CB Donte Jackson (out, groin), S Eric Reid (questionable, ankle)

JAC DFS chalk: none 

CAR DFS chalk: none

JAC DFS tournament plays: none

CAR DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: JAC is 28th in both third-down offense (29.2 percent) and red-zone offense (38.5 percent)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Fournette bangs out 90 yards and finally scores a TD. Minshew throws for 250 yards but can't find the end zone. McCaffrey answers back with 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 210 yards and a second score to D.J. Moore. Panthers, 21-16

New England at Washington (+15.5), 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Another week, another outrageous road spread the Patriots have to cover. The weird thing about their dominant start to the year is, the offense hasn't even clicked into gear yet, something you can't just pin on the distraction caused when Antonio Brown couch-surfed at Tom Brady's place for a couple of weeks — the team is fourth in scoring, but it has already faced an unfocused Steelers outfit, an injury-riddled Jets squad and the tanking Dolphins, and it feels like it left a lot of touchdowns on the table. Week 5 brings another opponent seemingly headed for the top of the 2020 draft, so maybe this is the game we get one of those infamous "keep our collective foot on their throat for four quarters" games from the Pats. As for Washington, it didn't even know who its QB would be at the beginning of the week. Case Keenum is back in a walking boot, and first-round pick Dwayne Haskins split reps at practice with Colt McCoy after his rough NFL debut in relief of Keenum, before coach Jay Gruden decided to give the young QB a break and not throw him right into the lion's den behind a banged-up offensive line. Not that it will matter much who's under center against a defense that has yet to allow a passing touchdown, particularly if rookie Terry McLaurin, the team's lone bright spot, is sidelined again.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Rex Burkhead (questionable, foot), WR Julian Edelman, (questionable, chest), S Patrick Chung (questionable, heel)

WAS injuries: QB Keenum (questionable, foot), WR McLaurin (questionable, hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (out, concussion), TE Vernon Davis (out, concussion), LT Trent Williams (out, contract dispute), C Chase Roullier (questionable, knee), RG Brandon Scherff (out, ankle), CB Josh Norman (questionable, knee)

NE DFS chalk: Patriots DST (first in scoring defense, first in takeaways, t-first in sacks, WAS t-28th in scoring, t-27th in giveaways)

WAS DFS chalk: none

NE DFS tournament plays: none

WAS DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: NE is first in third-down defense (13.5 percent); WAS is 32nd (63.0 percent)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 10-11 mph wind, 15-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Sony Michel leads the NE backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Julian Edelman once and Phillip Dorsett twice, with the latter topping 100 yards. New kicker Mike Nugent misses one of the extra points. Adrian Peterson manages a season-high 50 yards and a TD. McCoy starts and struggles, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting picked off twice. Patriots, 30-10
 

Buffalo (+3) at Tennessee, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bills may have lost to the Patriots last week, but they didn't look overmatched, and who knows what Josh Allen might have been able to do with his legs if he hadn't been knocked from the game due to a concussion. (Let's be honest, he wasn't going to win it with his arm.) Given the strength of their defense, they don't need a lot of offense to steal a win, but Matt Barkley and his career 10:19 TD:INT don't seem like the answer if Allen isn't ready to return. Insert obligatory reference to you-know-who here. It might also be time to start giving the Titans' defense some respect too. They've now quashed Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan in their own buildings, and even in their losses they haven't given up more than 20 points yet. It would be nice if Marcus Mariota could do more to win those winnable games, but for now they'll keep riding Derrick Henry and hope he can bludgeon the opposition into submission in the second half.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: QB Josh Allen (questionable, concussion), RB Devin Singletary (questionable, hamstring), TE Tyler Kroft (out, ankle)

TEN injuries: RG Kevin Pamphile (out. knee), LB Cameron Wake (questionable, hamstring)

BUF DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS chalk: none

BUF DFS tournament plays: Cole Beasley (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Dawson Knox (TEN 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS tournament plays: Titans DST (TEN fifth in scoring defense, t-sixth in sacks, BUF t-30th in giveaways)

Key stat: TEN is t-fifth in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 70 percent (7-for-10) of RZ possessions; BUF is t-28th in red-zone defense at 71.4 percent (5-for-7)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards. Barkley gets the start and throws for under 200 yards while getting picked off twice and losing a fumble. Henry thunders for 90 yards and a TD. Mariota throws for 220 yards and gets picked off twice himself. Titans, 16-6
 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+3.5), 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Ravens have crashed back to earth now that they've been forced to face some real competition. After outscoring the Dolphins and Cards 82-27 in their two wins, they've been manhandled 73-53 by the Chiefs and Browns, with last week's loss to Cleveland being particularly painful. On the bright side, Mark Ingram, Lamar Jackson and the offense have stayed productive —  it's the defense, surprisingly, that's let the squad down. Injuries in the secondary have played a large role in that, but the front office also failed to adequately fill the C.J. Mosley-sized hole in the middle of the linebacking corps this offseason. The question for Week 5 is whether the Steelers are more like the Browns, or the Cardinals. Last week's thumping of the Bengals (who are more like the Dolphins) doesn't really prove much, especially when the offense went into an extreme dink-and-dunk shell under Mason Rudolph. Nineteen of his 24 completions went to a running back or tight end, and the team's reliance on Jaylen Samuels in a wildcat formation also speaks to how little trust Mike Tomlin has in the QB right now. If Rudolph can't stretch the field with JuJu Smith-Schuster and take advantage of that banged-up Baltimore back end, yards and points might be hard to come by.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: C Matt Skura (questionable, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (out, knee)

PIT injuries: WR Smith-Schuster (questionable, toe), TE Vance McDonald (questionable, shoulder)

BAL DFS chalk: none

PIT DFS chalk: James Conner (BAL 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

BAL DFS tournament plays: Willie Snead (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS tournament plays: Jaylen Samuels (see Conner), Smith-Schuster (BAL 29th in DVOA against deep throws), Diontae Johnson (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2, 29th against deep throws)

Key stat: Rudolph's average intended air yards per pass of 6.0 is 36th in the league, ahead of only Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-5 BAL including postseason, average score 24-23 BAL, average margin of victory 10 points. PIT has won four of the last five meetings.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, 9-10 mph wind, 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Ingram snags 100 combined yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Marquise Brown while running for 60 yards and a score of his own. Conner responds with 130 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Rudolph throws for 200 yards and a TD to Samuels. Ravens, 30-17
 

Arizona (+3.5) at Cincinnati, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Another week, another game involving the Bengals where both teams are looking for their first win of the year. Kyler Murray's growing pains continue for the Cards, but he at least keeps teasing his upside — the rookie QB has completed 67 percent of his passes the last three games, even if that does come with a rough 2:3 TD:INT and 6.6 YPA, and in the last two games he's piled up 96 rushing yards and a score. His mobility has saved his bacon more than once already behind an offensive line that seems made of wet cardboard — Arizona's 28th in sack rate allowed at 10.6 percent, somehow even worse than last year's 9.5 percent rate that helped chase Josh Rosen out of town after only one season. All those quick passes, whether by design or survival instinct on Murray's part, have been gold for the guys hovering close to the line of scrimmage, though. David Johnson is on pace for a career high in catches, while Larry Fitzgerald is putting up numbers like he's a young pup in his early 30s again. Cincinnati simply didn't show up last week against a reeling Steelers squad, which really makes you wonder what it would take for them to get motivated. The offensive line has been just as bad as Arizona's (10.3 percent sack rate) but Andy Dalton can't get away from the rush as easily as Murray, and his YPA has dwindled every week this year. The malaise has hit Joe Mixon particularly hard, and it's not clear how getting A.J. Green back eventually might turn this ship around if Dalton doesn't have time to let him run a proper route. This game feels less like a question of who's going to win it than who's going to find a way to lose it.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: WR Christian Kirk (out, ankle), WR Damiere Byrd (questionable, hamstring), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, shoulder), LB Terrell Suggs (questionable, back), CB Patrick Peterson (out, suspension)

CIN injuries: WR Green (out, ankle), WR John Ross (IR, shoulder), LT Cordy Glenn (out, concussion)

ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (CIN t-25th in rushing TDs allowed, 27th in rushing yards allowed per game, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Fitzgerald (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

CIN DFS chalk: Mixon (ARI 28th in rushing yards allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

ARI DFS tournament plays: KeeSean Johnson (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR2, 30th against deep throws), Charles Clay (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Cardinals DST (CIN 30th in scoring, 31st in sacks allowed, t-30th in giveaways)

CIN DFS tournament plays: Giovani Bernard (see Mixon), Tyler Eifert (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: ARI's defense is 11th in sack percentage at 7.5; CIN's is 26th at 4.2

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

DJ gallops for 120 combined yards and two scores. Murray throws for 290 yards and TDs to Fitzgerald and Johnson while running for 50 yards. Mixon scratches out 70 yards and a touchdown. Dalton throws for 240 yards and TDs to Eifert and Tyler Boyd. Cardinals, 28-27

Atlanta (+5) at Houston, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's maybe too early to say Atlanta's season is already over, but they certainly look like a team playing to get their coach fired. The Falcons have been pummeled into submission twice now by more physical teams, and while there's no shame in coming up short in Minnesota, getting beaten pretty easily in their own building by the Titans has to sting. The struggles are clearly wearing on Matt Ryan, who's playing well but trying to do too much because nobody else is stepping up, leading to a league-high six INTs through four weeks. Devonta Freeman's 3.3 YPC isn't cutting it, and if he's indeed lost a step due to all his injuries, it might be time for Ito Smith (5.7 YPC behind the same line, albeit on only 13 carries) to get a larger workload. The Texans are spinning their wheels in that AFC South mud along with everyone else in the division, and there's been no rhyme or reason to their success or failure. Deshaun Watson had two big games and two duds, and they're 1-1 in each. J.J. Watt's recorded sacks in two games — yep, 1-1. They're .500 at home, .500 on the road ... at some point everything might click, but so far it's been one step forward, one step back.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RG Jamon Brown (out, concussion)

HOU injuries: WR Kenny Stills (questionable, hamstring)

ATL DFS chalk: none

HOU DFS chalk: DeAndre Hopkins (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ATL DFS tournament plays: none

HOU DFS tournament plays: Will Fuller (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: ATL is 29th in third-down defense (51.0 percent); HOU is ninth in third-down offense (46.9 percent)

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Freeman stumbles to 50 yards. Ryan throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Calvin Ridley twice once and Julio Jones (who tops 100 yards) once. Carlos Hyde bangs out 70 yards and a score. Watson throws for 340 yards and two touchdowns, both to Hopkins, who also hits the century mark in yards. Texans, 27-21

Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Watching the highlights of last week's game, I was reminded less of, say, Patrick Mahomes than Dan Fouts, or maybe an old bit from the Tick cartoon. Jameis Winston was out of control, mostly in the good way, launching bombs willy-nilly that the Rams somehow kept getting caught out on. Winston's second in the league among QBs who have played every game in average intended air yards per attempt at 10.7 (first place? Matthew Stafford at 11.1. Huh.), and he averages 8.0 air yards per completion, again second behind Stafford. Before you give Bruce Arians too much credit, that's pretty much who Winston's been throughout his career — he was at 10.8 and 8.4 in those categories last year, and 10.5 and 7.6 in 2017. The difference is, he now has two guys capable of converting those bombs into big gains rather than just one. With defenses now having to account for Chris Godwin and not just double-team Mike Evans every time he goes deep, the QB already has five completions of 40-plus yards on the year — his career high is eight. Winston's on pace for 4,500 yards and more than 30 TDs for the first time as a result. Of course, he's also on pace for a career-high 20 INTs, but hey, it's the only jib he's got, yeah! The Saints keep marching even without Drew Brees — two weeks ago Alvin Kamara took control, and last week the defense did a fantastic job containing Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. Just so long as Teddy Bridgewater isn't the guy who has to play hero, they should be fine until Brees is back.

The Skinny

TB injuries: RT Demar Dotson (questionable, calf)

NO injuries: QB Brees (out, thumb)

TB DFS chalk: Evans / Godwin (NO 31st in DVOA against deep throws)

NO DFS chalk: none

TB DFS tournament plays: Ronald Jones (NO t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

NO DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: NO is 29th in red-zone offense, scoring touchdowns on 36.4 percent (4-for-11) of RZ possessions; TB is fifth in red-zone defense at 42.9 percent (6-for-14)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NO, average score 27-24 NO, average margin of victory eight points. Only two of the last 10 meetings have been decided by more than one score.

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Jones gets held to 60 combined yards but does score. Winston throws for 300 yards and two TDs to Godwin, who tops 100 yards. Kamara gains 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Bridgewater throws for a season-high 220 yards and a TD to Michael Thomas. Buccaneers, 26-20

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants (+5.5), 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Vikings may be in a bit of trouble. Sure, they're a solid 2-2 in a division where the leader's only  3-1, but both their losses have come against NFC North rivals, and in both games Kirk Cousins was a flop when they needed him. Dalvin Cook and the defense should be enough to steamroll lesser opponents most weeks, but if Cousins can't win a game now and then, Minnesota could find itself as the conference's gatekeeper rather than in the playoffs. Speaking of lesser opponents ... the Giants were supposed to fit that description, especially with Saquon Barkley limping, but they've suddenly won consecutive games with Danny Dimes at the helm. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been far from flawless, but he's injected energy and hope into a lineup that was sorely lacking in either with Eli Manning just playing out the string. Arguably this will be Jones' first real test, as the wins came against the Bucs and Washington, but then again Tampa Bay ranks better in QB rating against (eighth at 83.9) than Minnesota  (17th at 96.7). He'll also have Golden Tate to toss the ball to, as the Giants' receiving corps is finally at full strength.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: CB Mackenzie Alexander (out, elbow)

NYG injuries: RB Barkley, (out, ankle), LB Alec Ogletree (out, hamstring)

MIN DFS chalk: none

NYG DFS chalk: none

MIN DFS tournament plays: Vikings DST (MIN t-fifth in points per game allowed, NYG t-29th in giveaways)

NYG DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: Former NFC East starter Cousins is 3-5 lifetime against the Giants with a 67.3 QB rating and 8:14 TD:INT through eight games – more INTs than he's thrown against the Eagles (five in eight games) and Cowboys (five in seven games) combined 

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, 12 mph wind, 10-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Cook gains 120 combined yards and a TD. Cousins throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Adam Thielen but gets picked off twice, one of which Janoris Jenkins returns to the house. Wayne Gallman gets held to 50 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards, but adds to his growing legend by finding Sterling Shepard for one score and running in a second to complete the comeback. Giants, 21-20

Chicago vs. Oakland (+5) in London, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I think we need to talk about Mitch. Mitchell Trubisky got knocked out of last week's game, and in his place career backup Chase Daniel had the Bears' popgun offense looking better than it had all season. Now, this isn't to say Daniel looked all that good per se — he dinked and dunked his way to a 6.5 YPA against the Vikings — but he did look better than Trubisky, and that's a problem for the guy who was drafted second overall in 2017. The injury might be a blessing in disguise if it gives Trubisky a chance to refocus, but for all his physical gifts, it's beginning to look like he just might not be up to the challenge of being an NFL quarterback. If he returns from his shoulder injury and keeps struggling, the franchise could have some difficult decisions ahead. In the meantime, Daniel will be under center for the season's first London game, facing a Raiders squad that's avoided being a dumpster fire in the standings. Last week's win in Indianapolis was kind of shocking, but it also came against a team missing its most talented player on both sides of the ball. That won't be the case in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where Derek Carr will have to try to solve the league's nastiest defense with a banged-up receiving corps and offensive line. Ulp.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Trubisky (out, shoulder), WR Taylor Gabriel (out, concussion), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, knee)

OAK injuries: WR Tyrell Williams (questionable, foot), WR J.J. Nelson (questionable, knee), LG Richie Incognito (questionable, back), RG Gabe Jackson (out, knee), LB Vontaze Burfict (out, suspension)

CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (second in scoring defense, t-fourth in takeaways, third in sacks)

OAK DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS tournament plays: Javon Wims (OAK 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

OAK DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: CHI hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game since Week 13 of last season – a 30-27 overtime loss to the Giants

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, 10-13 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

David Montgomery picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Daniel throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Adam Shaheen. Josh Jacobs gets stuffed for 40 yards. Carr throws for 220 yards and a score to Darren Waller but gets sacked four times, including one for a safety by Khalil Mack. Bears, 19-13

N.Y. Jets (+13.5) at Philadelphia, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

This was not the start the Jets were hoping for, but when your young franchise QB gets mono and your prized free-agent linebacker only plays 48 defensive snaps through three games, it's clearly not your year. Sam Darnold remains sidelined for at least one more week, and with the club stuck with scrub Luke Falk under center, there's little reason to rush back any of the other players cluttering up their injury report. There's also the matter of having to face a presumed Super Bowl contender who just whupped Aaron Rodgers in his own building. The Eagles were slow out of the gate, but last week's impressive showing suggests they've started to figure out whatever the issue was. Carson Wentz remains an enigma — his completion rate and YPA are both down through four games — but if Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders continue to form an effective thunder-and-lightning backfield, Wentz won't need to be superman. The bigger concern is the pass rush, though. The Eagles are last in sacks (three through four games) and sack percentage (1.7 percent). Fletcher Cox hasn't been 100 percent healthy, but that's still no excuse for such a poor showing against a relatively weak September schedule in terms of the offensive lines they've faced.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Darnold (out, illness), WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable, hamstring), TE Chris Herndon (out, suspension), LG Kelechi Osemele (doubtful, shoulder), DT Quinnen Williams (questionable, ankle), LB C.J. Mosley (doubtful, groin)

PHI injuries: WR DeSean Jackson (out, abdomen), CB Ronald Darby (out, hamstring)

NYJ DFS chalk: none

PHI DFS chalk: none

NYJ DFS tournament plays: none

PHI DFS tournament plays: Eagles DST (NYJ 31st in scoring, 30th in sack percentage allowed)

Key stat: NYJ is 29th in red-zone defense, allowing TDs on 71.4 percent (5-for-7) of RZ possessions; PHI is eighth in red-zone offense at 68.8 percent (11-for-16)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 11-12 mph wind, 10-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Le'Veon Bell gains 100 combined yards and a receiving TD. Falk throws for 230 yards and a second score to Robby Anderson. Sanders leads the PHI backfield with 80 scrimmage yards. Wentz throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, both to Alshon Jeffery. Eagles, 23-17

Denver (+6.5) at L.A. Chargers, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

There are only two teams in the NFL already four games back of their division leader, and one of them's the Dolphins. The other is the Broncos, who have had some bad breaks on their way to 0-4 but also couldn't put away the Jaguars on home turf when they had the chance, so it's hard to feel too bad for them. Joe Flacco's been perfectly cromulent as the placeholder QB — his 7.3 YPA is his highest since 2010 — and the pass rush, which headed into Week 4 without a single sack somehow, finally got rolling as well, which offers some hope. It's hard to see anything Denver does particularly well, though. The backfield duo of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman is OK. The passing game is fine. The defense hasn't been terrible, even without Von Miller and company doing much until last week. Nobody's making a difference, though, and until that starts happening, that first win could be elusive. The Bolts got Melvin Gordon last week and should actually put him on the field this week, but it'll be tough to justify slashing Austin Ekeler's touches down to nothing after he piled up nearly 500 scrimmage yards and six TDs through four weeks while Gordon was holding out. Philip Rivers is, as per usual, running out of healthy targets, so there may be enough work for both RBs in the short term, especially against a run defense that's been one of the Broncos' glaring weaknesses.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RT Ja'Wuan James (questionable, knee), S Kareem Jackson (questionable, hamstring)

LAC injuries: WR Mike Williams (questionable, back), WR Travis Benjamin (questionable, hip), TE Hunter Henry (out. knee), K Michael Badgley (doubtful, groin), DE Melvin Ingram (questionable, hamstring), LB Thomas Davis (questionable, groin)

DEN DFS chalk: none

LAC DFS chalk: Keenan Allen (DEN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

DEN DFS tournament plays: none

LAC DFS tournament plays: Melvin Gordon / Austin Ekeler (DEN 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB, 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed per game)

Key stat: LAC is 21st in sack percentage allowed (7.0 percent)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DEN, average score 20-18 DEN, average margin of victory 10 points

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Lindsay leads the DEN backfield with 110 combined yards, while Freeman adds 60 yards and a TD. Flacco throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Courtland Sutton. Gordon has a solid season debut with 70 yards and a score, and Ekeler picks up 90 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Rivers throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Keenan Allen, who tops 100 yards. Chargers, 27-23

Green Bay (+3.5) at Dallas, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Aaron Rodgers has had some extra time to stew over last Thursday's home loss to the Eagles, and his soul-crushing first INT of the season, which typically wouldn't bode well for the opposition. Davante Adams' turf toe deprives him of his top option, though, and even after that Week 4 explosion of yards, the QB's numbers are still merely good rather than outstanding. It might remain on the shoulders of the defense to get things back on track for the Packers. They got a solid blueprint on how to stop Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott from the Saints last week, so it now falls to Dallas OC Kellen Moore to make some new adjustments if the Cowboys are going to remain in contention for the title of best offense in the NFC. Getting Michael Gallup back would help, especially with Amari Cooper potentially not playing 100 percent healthy — for all the talk of a "new Triplets" in Dallas, they can't just rely on three guys every week. Prescott's day could be complicated by injuries on his offensive line as well — the Packers rank in the top 10 in sacks (ninth with 12) and sack percentage (seventh at 8.3 percent).

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jamaal Williams (out, concussion), WR Davante Adams (out, toe), RT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, shoulder), CB Kevin King (doubtful, groin)

DAL injuries: WR Gallup (questionable, knee), LT Tyron Smith (out, ankle), RT La'el Collins (questionable, back)

GB DFS chalk: none

DAL DFS chalk: none

GB DFS tournament plays: none

DAL DFS tournament plays: Ezekiel Elliott (GB 29th in YPC allowed)

Key stat: GB is 27th in third-down offense at 31.9 percent; DAL is second in third-down defense at 26.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 90s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Aaron Jones gains 110 combined yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Jimmy Graham and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Elliott scampers for 140 combined yards and a score. Prescott throws for 290 yards and TDs to Cooper and Randall Cobb. Cowboys, 30-24

Indianapolis (+11) at Kansas City, 56.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Oof. The Colts' loss to the Raiders last week shouldn't have been that surprising given all the key personnel they have injured, but it still cost them a chance to seize control of the AFC South. The offense lacks dynamic playmakers without T.Y. Hilton or Marlon Mack 100 percent healthy, but it's having Darius Leonard sidelined that's really hurting. Indy's plan to transition to a game plan built around an elite offensive line and ground game backed by a fast, young defense falls apart when the heart of that defense isn't on the field. They're also down two starting safeties as well, which isn't ideal when you're traveling to Kansas City. The Lions miraculously held Patrick Mahomes without a passing TD last week but he beat them anyway, and now he'll probably feel like he has to make up for lost time against the Colts' battered secondary. As if he needed any extra incentive to light it up, Indy was also the last team before Detroit to keep him out of the end zone, in last year's Divisional Round, but the result was the same.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Mack (questionable, ankle), WR Hilton (questionable, quad), WR Parris Campbell (out, abdomen), LB Leonard (out, concussion), S Malik Hooker (out, knee)

KC injuries: RB Damien Williams (questionable, knee), WR Tyreek Hill (out, collarbone), WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, shoulder), LT Eric Fisher (out, groin)

IND DFS chalk: Mack (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed)

KC DFS chalk: Williams / LeSean McCoy / Darrel Williams (IND 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed)

IND DFS tournament plays: none

KC DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: Mahomes is second in the NFL with a 120.4 QB rating; IND is 29th in QB rating against at 113.0

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Mack picks up 80 combined yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for 270 yards and TDs to Deon Cain and Chester Rogers. McCoy leads the KC backfield with 90 scrimmage yards, while Darrel Williams vultures a short touchdown. Mahomes throws for 370 yards and four scores, hitting Travis Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman once each. Chiefs, 41-20

L.A. Rams (+1.5) at Seattle, 49.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

There's enough blame to go around for everyone in the wake of last week's debacle, but if you're a member of the Rams secondary, I'm not sure how you show your face again in the locker room after giving up 55 points to Jameis Winston. This is not a unit lacking in star power or impressive resumes — Marcus Peters! Aqib Talib! Eric Weddle! — so you have to think at the very least their pride will result in a much better performance this time out, even with a short week to prepare. It's also encouraging that the offense found its extra gear again in the second half against the Bucs, even if it came after Jared Goff had helped dig a 21-0 hole. However, they now have to face a 3-1 Seahawks squad whose loss to the Drew Brees-less Saints looks a lot more palatable after Week 4. The Rams have won three of their last four visits to Seattle, so they have no fear of the venue or crowd, and they're one of only three teams Russell Wilson has a losing record against (the other two being the Saints and Chargers, who he's faced a combined five times). But this version of Wilson isn't playing with one hand tied behind his back by the play-calling. His completion percentage and YPA are both on pace for career highs, which is a fairly deadly combination, and he has yet to throw a pick. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf aren't quite on the level of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but they can still do plenty of damage if they get loose deep.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: none

SEA injuries: LT Duane Brown (questionable, biceps)

LAR DFS chalk: none

SEA DFS chalk: none

LAR DFS tournament plays: none

SEA DFS tournament plays: Metcalf (LAR 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: SEA is second in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 76.9 percent (10-of-13) of RZ possessions; LAR are 23rd in red-zone defense, allowing TDs at a 64.3 percent rate (9-of-14)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 LAR, average score 22-21 LAR, average margin of victory 10 points. Six of seven LAR wins have been by a single score; two of three SEA wins have been by at least 14 points.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Todd Gurley picks up 80 combined yards. Goff throws for 250 yards and TDs to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Chris Carson rumbles for 70 yards and a score. Wilson throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Metcalf and C.J. Prosise while also running in a TD of his own. Seahawks, 31-17

Last week's record: 7-8, 6-9 ATS, 6-9 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 36-26-1, 28-35 ATS, 32-29-2 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 656-395-5, 484-530-42 ATS, 387-400-13 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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