NFL Game Previews: Eagles-Seahawks Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Philadelphia at Seattle (+3.5), o/u 47.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Eagles' luck ran out the last couple weeks, as the they lost to the 49ers and Cowboys by a combined score of 75-32, but a cushy closing schedule that features a home game against the Cards sandwiched between two games against the Giants still arguably makes them the favorite to win the NFC East, even though they're behind Dallas on a tiebreaker at the moment. Philly might need to win out to do it though, and given the defense's struggles, that's easier said than done. The team's coughed up at least 33 points in three straight games while getting tagged for over 450 yards a game, giving Jalen Hurts and the offense no margin for error. Injuries have been an issue, but having Darius Slay and James Bradberry both lose a step at the same time has been the biggest problem, and a team that thought they were coming into the season with two shutdown-ish corners instead has one decent one and one liability – and the decent one, Slay, won't be playing Monday. Hurts has a wealth of options available to him, especially with Dallas Goedert back, but even he's been held in check through the air lately. Over four games since the team's bye, he has a 60.8 percent completion rate, a 4:2 TD:INT and a 6.8 YPA, although Hurts has added five rushing TDs during that time. How much of that was a product of a brutal schedule, and how much was due to the league beginning to figure out first-year OC Brian Johnson, could determine whether the Eagles get stuck with a wild-card spot or not.

Somehow, the Seahawks are still in the wild-card race despite losing four straight games during a cruel scheduling stretch that saw them play three road games, including one against the Cowboys, while facing the Niners at home in the fourth. Seattle also had to make do at quarterback last week, and while Drew Lock played surprisingly well in Geno Smith's place for three quarters, two picks in the fourth ended any thoughts of an upset in San Francisco. Smith was able to practice a bit this week, but he's still iffy for this one. The backfield situation also remains unclear, as Kenneth Walker returned from an oblique strain last week but still got out-played by rookie Zach Charbonnet. Pete Carroll tends to prefer having a lead RB rather than resorting to a committee, so if Walker looks sluggish again, his touch volume could dry up in a hurry. These two teams are in pretty similar form, with the offenses not playing up to their potential and the defenses having trouble slowing anyone down, and neither one can afford a loss. This one could get feisty.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: LB Zach Cunningham (out, knee)
SEA injuries: QB Smith (questionable, groin), S Jamal Adams (questionable, knee)

PHI DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: Tyler Lockett $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (PHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Noah Fant $2,800 DK / $4,700 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: PHI is third in third-down conversions at 47.7 percent; SEA is 30th in third-down defense at 45.8 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift splashes for 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Hurts throws for 240 yards and two TDs, one each to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Charbonnet leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards. Lock starts again and throws for 210 yards and two scores, finding DK Metcalf and Fant. Eagles 27-21

EARLY SUNDAY

Atlanta at Carolina (+3), o/u 34 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

A messy three-way tie in the NFC South is still very possible, with the Falcons, Bucs and Saints all at 6-7 coming into this weekend, and really, it's what they deserve. Atlanta's little burst of momentum coming out of its bye fizzled last week against Tampa Bay, but Desmond Ridder threw for a career-high 347 yards and did a credible impression of a competent QB, so as losses go, it was an encouraging one. Who knew that good things can happen when you use early draft picks on receiving options and then actually throw the ball to them? Oh wait, everyone except Arthur Smith knew that. Drake London erupted for a 10-172 line on 11 targets and has topped 90 yards in two of the last three games, although he caught only one eight-yard pass in the third and hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 4, so Smith's abysmal play-calling isn't off the hook yet. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts scored his first TD since Week 6 and posted his highest yardage total since Week 5, even if it was only 57 yards. Incredibly, the tight end has topped 50 yards in back-to-back games for the first time since his rookie season, which alone should be a damning enough stat to get Smith fired. Ridder's not great, but if he just keeps chucking it to those two guys – preferably as quickly as possible, given the state of his offensive line – he doesn't need to be.

The Panthers all but have the top pick in the 2024 draft locked up, which they will then dutifully pass along to the Bears as part of the payment for Bryce Young. Carolina's lost six straight, and coaching changes don't matter much when there's this little talent on the roster. If you squint you can see vague signs of progress from kids like Jonathan Mingo, but Young's reached a 6.0 YPA just once in the last six games, posting a 52.5 percent completion rate (including a brutal 36.2 percent mark last week against New Orleans), 4.9 yards per attempt and a 2:5 TD:INT over that woeful stretch. Honestly, the best thing for him might be to simply sit him down the rest of the way, let Andy Dalton play out the string, and regroup in the offseason with the new coaching staff, whoever they are. The Panthers don't have a daunting closing schedule though so sure, keep sending Young out there and maybe he'll find a little spark of hope in there somewhere.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: LB Nate Landman (questionable, knee)
CAR injuries: EDGE Brian Burns (questionable, ankle)

ATL DFS targets: Bijan Robinson $6,800 DK / $8,600 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: Van Jefferson $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (CAR second in DVOA vs. WR3)
CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST $2,800 DK / $3,300 FD (32nd in takeaways, 32nd in sacks)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 ATL, average score 26-19 ATL, average margin of victory 11 points. ATL had won four straight meetings at Bank of America Stadium prior to a 25-15 CAR victory in Week 10 of last season
Key stat: CAR is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent (15-for-30), and 29th in red-zone trips. ATL is t-2nd in red-zone defense at 40.5 percent (15-for-37)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 20-25 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson piles up 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Ridder throws for under 200 yards and a TD to London. Chuba Hubbard picks up 60 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards with a score to Adam Thielen. Falcons 17-10

Chicago (+3) at Cleveland, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bears have won two straight games and three of four to stay in the wild-card hunt, although while they're technically only one game back of the final playoff spot in the NFC, there's five other teams between them and the Packers right now based on tiebreakers. Justin Fields has looked solid since his return, posting a 66.7 percent completion rate in three games, but his 6.5 YPA and three touchdowns against two turnovers aren't the kind of numbers that are going to dissuade the front office from targeting a QB with next year's first overall pick. The backfield remains a revolving door and a fantasy nightmare, as three different RBs have led the team in touches in those three games – Khalil Herbert turned 18 touches into just 41 combined yards in Week 11 and rookie Roschon Johnson posted a respectable 75 scrimmage yards and 15 touches in the game before Chicago's bye, but last week it was D'Onta Foreman's turn (72 yards on 13 touches.) Johnson should be the guy they lean on down the stretch just to see if he can be the lead back in 2024, especially with Foreman a free agent in the offseason and Herbert having only one more year left on his rookie contract, but that seems too logical for this team. Of course, DJ Moore scored the first rushing TD of his career last week, so maybe they should just keep giving the ball to him, assuming he can play through his ankle injury.

At 38 years old, it's nice to see that Joe Flacco is putting to rest any doubts as to whether he's truly elite. Last week's 311-yard, three-TD performance against the Jaguars earned him the starting gig for the Browns the rest of the way, as well as a real contract with over $4 million in potential incentives if he does something really kooky like lead the team to the Super Bowl. Hey, riding a top-shelf defense to glory is what started all those memes in the first place. The biggest winners of Cleveland's revitalized passing game have been the tight ends, though. David Njoku has erupted for an 8-108-2 line on 14 targets in Flacco's two starts, while Harrison Bryant grabbed a TD on five targets in Week 13. Elijah Moore's also seen a boost with a 7-125-0 on 18 targets, but his role in the offense was growing even before the switch at QB. The emphasis on short routes makes more sense when you look at the tattered remnants of an offensive line that will be down both starting tackles and its starting center this week. The big question for the Browns as they try to secure a playoff spot is whether their defense can still be considered elite after carrying the team through the early part of the campaign. Myles Garrett hasn't had a sack in three games, a stretch in which the team's coughed up 30.7 PPG, and last week's win was the first time since Week 10 the unit had produced multiple takeaways. Flacco is only one man, after all – if the defense keeps sliding, things could get very dicey.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: WR Moore (questionable, ankle), EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (IR, ankle)
CLE injuries: LB Anthony Walker (questionable, knee)

CHI DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: none

CHI DFS fades: Fields $7,000 DK / $7,900 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed), Moore $6,900 DK / $7,900 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1)
CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is t-16th in red-zone conversions at 55.6 percent (20-for-36); CHI is 32nd in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent (27-for-36)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 40s, 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a score. Fields throws for under 200 yards but does run in a touchdown of his own. Jerome Ford bangs out 70 yards and a TD. Flacco throws for 210 yards and a score to Njoku. Browns 20-14

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The NFC South remains this year's LOL division, but the 6-7 Bucs at least have some nominal momentum with two straight wins. This is basically a two-man offense, with Rachaad White having scored six TDs (four rushing, two receiving) over the last six games while Mike Evans has hauled in five touchdowns in that same period. The amazing things about those two wins is that they're nearly inexplicable after the fact. Baker Mayfield completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes in each and the defense hasn't come up with more than one takeaway in a game since Week 7. Last week the Falcons out-gained the Bucs 434-290 and produced seven more first downs, and still somehow came up short. Tampa's luck will probably run out soon enough, but it might not make much more good fortune to let them fall into a division title.

The current No. 7 seed in the NFC, the Packers looked like they might be doing that thing they used to do under Aaron Rodgers where they'd wait until the last minute to go on a tear and still win the NFC North. Then they fell on their faces against the Giants last week, and so much for that. Three games back of Detroit with four left to play, a wild-card spot is about the best Green Bay can hope for. Jordan Love saw his four-game streak of games with multiple TD passes end in the Meadowlands, but considering the health of the offense around him, it's a wonder he can find anyone to throw to at all. Over his last six starts he's got a 65.7 percent completion rate, a 7.5 YPA and a 12:3 TD:INT, and Love seems to have a firm grip on the baton he got from Rodgers.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Chris Godwin (questionable, knee), LB Devin White (questionable, foot), S Ryan Neal (doubtful, back)
GB injuries: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, knee), RB AJ Dillon (questionable, thumb), WR Christian Watson (doubtful, hamstring), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, ankle), TE Luke Musgrave (IR, abdomen), LB Quay Walker (questionable, shoulder)

TB DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: Love $6,200 DK / $8,000 FD (TB 30th in net passing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPA allowed), Malik Heath $3,000 DK / $4,400 FD (TB 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

TB DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is sixth in third-down conversions at 43.4 percent; TB is t-26th in third-down defense at 42.0 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: White produces 80 scrimmage yards. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Evans and Cade Otton, but also throws a pick-six to Keisean Nixon. Jones starts and manages 60 yards. Love throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns, finding Heath and Romeo Doubs. Packers 27-23

N.Y. Jets (+8.5) at Miami, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Wait, you mean that wasn't a fever dream? Zach Wilson really led the Jets to 30 points last week? Wow. The much-maligned QB completed 75 percent of his passes against the Texans while throwing for a season-high 301 yards, and with the offense actually sustaining some drives, the New York defense was able to catch its breath and shot down C.J. Stroud and company. It's kind of incredible how good a season the jets' defense has had under the circumstances – the unit's held four of its last seven opponents under 200 yards of offense, and has somehow gone just 2-2 in those games. One good performance isn't enough to make me buy in, but if you're still alive in the playoffs at that point, Wilson does get to face the Commanders in Week 16, which seems a little more palatable as a Hail Mary at QB that it did this time last week.

Speaking of baffling outcomes, I'm still not sure how the Dolphins' defense let Will Levis lead two touchdown drives in the last four minutes last week to blow a 14-point lead, but however it happened, it cost them a chance to all but lock up the AFC East title. Miami's still two games up on Buffalo, but with a brutal closing schedule after that sees them host the Cowboys and face the Ravens on the road before a clash with the Bills in Week 18, they might not be able to afford another stumble. Injuries are piling up at the wrong time for the Dolphins, as De'Von Achane can't seem to get back on the field and Tyreek Hill is now limping, not to mention all the absences along the offensive line and on defense. Without a healthy Tyreek to pressure the secondary, Tua Tagovailoa failed to throw a TD pass last week for the first time all season, and Mike McDaniel's track team may not have a backup plan if the top speedsters aren't 100 percent.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR-R, Achilles)
MIA injuries: RB Achane (questionable, toe), WR Hill (questionable, ankle), LB Jerome Baker (IR, knee), S Jevon Holland (questionable, knee)

NYJ DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: Dolphins DST $4,800 DK / (t-3rd in sacks, NYJ t-29th in giveaways, 30th in sacks allowed)

NYJ DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Tagovailoa $7,900 DK / $7,600 FD (NYJ third in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Jaylen Waddle $7,400 DK / $7,000 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR2), Cedrick Wilson $3,000 DK / $5,200 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 MIA, average score 22-15 MIA, average margin of victory 12 points. MIA has won seven straight home meetings by an average score of 23-15
Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in third-down conversions at 24.6 percent; MIA is ninth in third-down defense at 36.7 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 20-25 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Breece Hall ekes out 50 yards. Wilson throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Garrett Wilson. Raheem Mostert rips off 120 yards and two touchdowns. Tagovailoa throws for 250 yards and a score to Waddle while also running in a TD himself. Dolphins 31-10

N.Y. Giants (+6) at New Orleans, o/u 39 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The hottest teams in the NFL right now are the Niners and Cowboys, each riding five-game winning streaks. Next up is the Ravens, who have won three straight, as well as the... Giants? Huh? New York took advantage of a soft spot in their schedule to beat the Commanders and Patriots before their bye and then knocked off the Packers on the other side of the break, and the Giants now face the prospect of sliding out of the top 10 in next year's draft if they don't knock it off. For all the grief DC Wink Martindale's gotten lately, it's been the defense leading the way during the win streak with 12 takeaways while allowing just 16.0 points a game. Tommy DeVito has a 5:0 TD:INT during the win streak, along with a 72.2 percent completion rate and 8.3 YPA, and the only thing preventing him from being a fantasy darling along with becoming a media one is that he hasn't attempted more than 27 passes in a game yet. Low-volume efficiency might be just what Brian Daboll is looking for right now, though.

The Saints are part of the morass at the top of the NFC South, if you want to count a 6-7 record as any kind of peak, but at least they're the only one of the three teams in the mix for a division crown with a positive point differential. They also have one more divisional loss though, having already dropped games to the Falcons and Bucs, which makes their path to the postseason a little trickier. Last week's game against the Panthers should have been a get-right opportunity, and while the final score of 28-6 makes it seem like it was, the Saints got out-gained by nearly 100 yards as Derek Carr was pretty limited while playing through multiple strained and broken bits. While he avoided the injury report this week, that doesn't mean he's 100 percent, and his supporting cast is a little banged up too. It might come down to DC Joe Woods' defense to keep the season afloat – the unit was good at generating takeaways earlier in the year, but has only four in the last four games.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: TE Darren Waller (IR-R, hamstring)
NO injuries: RB Jamaal Williams (questionable, groin), WR Chris Olave (questionable, ankle), WR Michael Thomas (IR, knee)

NYG DFS targets: none
NO DFS targets: Alvin Kamara $8,600 DK / $8,900 FD (NYG 29th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed), Saints DST $3,800 DK / $4,600 FD (t-5th in takeaways, NYG 32nd in sacks allowed)

NYG DFS fades: Jalin Hyatt $3,200 DK / $5,400 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. deep throws)
NO DFS fades: Juwan Johnson $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (NYG first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NYG are 31st in third-down conversions at 30.9 percent; NO is 10th in third-down defense at 36.9 percent

The Scoop: Saquon Barkley churns out 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. DeVito throws for under 200 yards and a score to Wan'Dale Robinson. Kamara jets for 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Carr throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Rashid Shaheed and A.T. Perry. Saints 24-10

Houston (+3) at Tennessee, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans' season isn't over – heck, they're just one game back of the Jags in the AFC South – but given how competitive the wild-card race is in the AFC, having C.J. Stroud unavailable for even one key divisional game could be all it takes to dump them in the also-ran bucket. DeMeco Ryans is playing coy on who would start if Stroud isn't cleared through the concussion protocol, with Davis Mills and Case Keenum both getting first-team reps in practice this week, but after watching what Joe Flacco has done with Cleveland, rolling the dice on the old guy is in vogue. It's important to remember that Houston has a young roster overall, and while they're proven themselves capable of some very impressive performances on both sides of the ball, they've also flopped at inopportune times, including last week against the Jets. Keenum might at least provide the offense with some stability, if obviously a much lower ceiling than Stroud. Losing Will Anderson hurts too, but it doesn't fully explain allowing Zach Wilson to look like a real NFL quarterback.

At 5-8, the Titans actually have the second-worst record in the AFC once tiebreakers are factored in, so while they're not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, they aren't exactly in good shape. Working in their favor is a closing stretch that has four straight games against teams with wounded QBs, as Tennessee gets their two against Houston along with two home games against Seattle and Jacksonville. There's also been glimmers of hope with the Titans' own rookie signal-caller. Over his last four starts, Will Levis has a 60.3 percent completion rate, a 7.7 YPA and a 4:1 TD:INT, with last week's fourth-quarter comeback being the kind of performance that might get looked back on as the moment things really began to click for him. Having Derrick Henry in the backfield keeps some of the pressure off Levis too, and he's scored six TDs over the last three games, even if his 3.8 YPC hasn't been up to his usual standards. Henry's only managed one run of 20-plus yards since the team's Week 7 bye, and he's just not the same steamroller he used to be.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: QB Stroud (doubtful, concussion), WR Nico Collins (questionable, calf), WR Noah Brown (questionable, knee), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (IR-R, quadriceps), EDGE Anderson (out, ankle), LB Blake Cashman (out, hamstring)
TEN injuries: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (questionable, illness), DE Jeffery Simmons (out, knee), DE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), LB Jack Gibbens (questionable, back)

HOU DFS targets: Collins $7,000 DK / $7,700 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Noah Brown $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)
TEN DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: Titans DST $3,700 DK / $4,400 FD (t-30th in takeaways, HOU t-1st in giveaways)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TEN, average score 25-24 TEN, average margin of victory eight points. The road team has won five straight meetings in this rivalry, and seven of the last eight.
Key stat: HOU is t-18th in red-zone conversions at 53.5 percent (23-for-43); TEN is first in red-zone defense at 37.5 percent (18-for-48)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 10-15 mph wind, 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devin Singletary leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Keenum starts and throws for 240 yards and a TD to Robert Woods. Henry rumbles for 70 yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for under 200 yards but hits DeAndre Hopkins for a score. Titans 17-13

Kansas City at New England (+7.5), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Things are officially getting nervous for the team that was supposed to run away with the AFC West. Kansas City's lost two straight and three of the last four, failing to score even 20 points in all three defeats, and Andy Reid's crew is now just one game ahead of Denver for the division title. Patrick Mahomes is already facing the prospect of starting a playoff game on the road for the first time in his career – how gauche – but falling into a wild-card spot is almost unthinkable, much less potentially failing to make the postseason completely if the offense doesn't lurch to life. The malaise dates back a lot farther than those four games, of course, and Patrick Mahomes hasn't reached a 7.0 YPA in five of his last six starts, a stretch in which he's completed just 63.8 percent of his passes with an 8:5 TD:INT and a 6.2 YPA. The fact that the team's aerial attack did wake up in that sixth game, when rookie Rashee Rice posted his first career 100-yard performance, makes the other recent lackluster efforts even more of a head-scratcher. KC's been there and done that enough that I still expect this team to flip the switch before it's too late, but time's a-ticking.

Ah, yes, it all makes sense now. Bill Belichick has masterfully assembled a roster that's so bad it's currently in line to pick second in the 2024 draft, which would guarantee them one of the big two QB prospects in the class and salvage the Patriots' future. They don't call him a genius for nothing. The Pats got away with last week's win over the Steelers, but with three straight games upcoming against likely playoff teams, it'll probably their last one until maybe Week 18 against the Jets, at which point they might have a cushion on the team in the No. 3 slot. Bailey Zappe probably locked up the starting job the rest of the way with his performance in Pittsburgh, but his receiving corps remains a banged-up mess so that could just mean he'll lean heavily on Hunter Henry again. New England's defense at least has followed Belichick's traditional script and put all the pieces together as the season went along, and it's now held five straight opponents to 20 points or less and four straight under 265 scrimmage yards.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (out, shoulder)
NE injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (out, ankle), WR DeVante Parker (questionable, knee), JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable, ankle), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, knee)

KC DFS targets: Justin Watson $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
NE DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $5,000 DK / $6,100 FD (NE first in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Rice $6,100 DK / $6,500 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1) 
NE DFS fades: Smith-Schuster $3,600 DK / $5,500 FD (KC third in DVOA vs. WR3), Patriots DST $2,300 DK / $3,200 FD (29th in takeaways, 28th in sacks, KC t-1st in sacks allowed)

Key stat: NE is 28th in third-down conversions at 32.9 percent; KC is 16th in third-down defense at 38.2 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: CEH puts together 60 yards, while Jerick McKinnon catches a touchdown pass. Mahomes throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, finding Travis Kelce and Watson. Ezekiel Elliott grinds out 50 yards. Zappe throws for under 200 yards and a score to Demario Douglas but also tosses a pick-six to Justin Reid. Kansas City 28-13

LATE SUNDAY

San Francisco at Arizona (+12.5), o/u 48 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Back in the top seed in the NFC, the 49ers head into this one having won five straight games by an average score of about 34-13. Absolutely everything is working right now. Brock Purdy has a 73.3 percent completion rate, a 13:2 TD:INT and an 11.3 YPA during the win streak, while Christian McCaffrey is averaging 134 scrimmage yards a game and the defense has produced multiple takeaways in four of the five wins. They've got one more tough opponent left on their schedule, hosting the Ravens next week, and will lock up the NFC West title with a sixth straight victory here. If there's one small worry, it's that injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball, but at least for one more week that shouldn't slow the juggernaut down.

The Cardinals come into this one tied for the second-worst record in the NFL but with a slightly tougher schedule than the Patriots, which would give them the No. 3 pick in next year's draft – an awkward spot if they want to move on from Kyler Murray and grab a new franchise QB. To his credit, Murray has looked pretty good in four games since making his season debut, producing six TDs (three passing, three rushing) against just two INTs, and his 60.8 percent completion rate and 6.6 YPA can be written off as due to both rust and a lackluster supporting cast. His contract also makes him tough to get rid of. I am curious to see if a defensive coach like Jonathan Gannon will be content to take Marvin Harrison or if he'll try to trade down in a draft class top-heavy with offensive assets, but that's for another day. Right now, the offense lacks threats beyond its quarterback. James Conner did have a true revenge game against Pittsburgh right before Arizona's bye, but the only receiving option to show much chemistry with Murray has been second-year tight end Trey McBride.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (out, knee), DT Javon Hargrave (out, hamstring), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, ankle)
ARI injuries: WR Marquise Brown (questionable, heel), WR Michael Wilson (questionable, neck)

SF DFS targets: Brandon Aiyuk $7,200 DK / $7,800 FD (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)
ARI DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: Deebo Samuel $7,700 DK / $8,400 FD (ARI fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
ARI DFS fades: Conner $5,700 DK / $6,300 FD (SF first in rushing yards per game allowed, third in rushing TDs allowed), McBride $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 SF, average score 25-20 SF, average margin of victory 12 points. SF has won three straight meetings by an average score of 37-13
Key stat: SF is fourth in third-down conversions at 47.5 percent; ARI is 31st in third-down defense at 46.3 percent

The Scoop: McCaffrey racks up 150 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Purdy throws for 360 yards and four scores, two to Aiyuk (who tops 100 yards) and one each to George Kittle and Chris Conley. Conner grinds out 60 yards and a TD. Murray throws for under 200 yards but does hit Greg Dortch for a score. 49ers 45-17

Washington (+6.5) at LA Rams, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Losers of four straight and six of seven, the Commanders are doing what they can to ensure their next head coach has a top pick to work with – had the regular season ended after last week, they would have held the No. 4 slot in the 2024 draft. The passing game has slowed down in recent weeks as defenses focus on making sure Sam Howell doesn't beat them, but the second-year QB has instead run for four TDs over the last three weeks, and he's now tied with Lamar Jackson (and Desmond Ridder) with five rushing scores on the season, good for third among QBs behind Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Howell doesn't exactly belong in that conversation, but anyone with fantasy shares in him isn't complaining. Brian Robinson is out for this one, creating an opportunity for rookie Chris Rodriguez – who has a 5.5 YPC over the last three games on limited volume – to prove he deserves a bigger role. Knowing Ron Rivera though, he'll probably just give the ball to Antonio Gibson until he fumbles again. Terry McLaurin also had the worst game of his career prior to Washington's bye, catching none of his three targets, and he needs to average 76.5 yards over the final four weeks to keep his streak of 1,000-yard seasons going. It will be interesting to see if OC Eric Bieniemy makes that a priority down the stretch.

The Rams are knocking on the door of a wild-card spot, and finding a way to win in Baltimore last week would have gone a long way to getting them into the postseason. They're still in pretty good shape given their closing schedule, although a Week 18 trip to San Francisco could be rough if the Niners have something to play for. Matthew Stafford has turned back the clock with 10 touchdown passes over the last three weeks, but the rest of his numbers during that stretch (a 63.1 percent completion rate and 7.2 YPA) don't jump off the page. A matchup against the worst secondary in the league could do wonders for his efficiency, though. Cooper Kupp finally woke up last week, but the star of the offense remains 2022 fifth-round RB Kyren Williams, who is only 10 scrimmage yards short of 1,000 for the season and already has double-digit TDs despite the fact he's only played in nine games. Sean McVay seems to cycle through starting backs like other coaches cycle through kickers, but at least for now, Williams is getting big volume and turning it into big production.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: RB Robinson (out, hamstring)
LAR injuries: WR Tutu Atwell (questionable, concussion), DE Aaron Donald (questionable, groin)

WAS DFS targets: Logan Thomas $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD (LAR 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
LAR DFS targets: Stafford $6,000 DK / $7,200 FD (WAS 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Kupp $7,800 DK / $8,200 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

WAS DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAR are sixth in red-zone conversions at 62.5 percent (25-for-40); WAS is 23rd in red-zone defense at 59.0 percent (23-for-39)

The Scoop: Rodriguez leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards. Howell throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding McLaurin and Thomas. Williams piles up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 370 yards and three touchdowns, two to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and one to Puka Nacua (who also tops 100 yards). Rams 31-20

Dallas (+2) at Buffalo, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Cowboys' big win over the Eagles last week put them out front in the NFC East, but it could be a short-lived lead. Philly is just wrapping up the toughest part of its schedule, but Dallas is now fully in the thick of its own with a road game in Miami and a home tilt against the Lions following this one. That said, Dak Prescott's squad has won five straight games by an average score of about 40-17, and their one loss in the last eight contests was inches away from being a win in Philadelphia, and a series sweep of the Eagles. Prescott's thrown multiple TDs in seven straight weeks since the bye, posting a ridiculous 22:2 TD:INT over that stretch to go with a 69.2 percent completion rate and 8.4 YPA, but he's been a different guy away from JerryWorld. Jared Goff gets all the chatter for his splits, but Prescott has a 122.5 QB rating at home this season (and a perfect 7-0 record) compared to an 88.7 rating and 3-3 record on the road. The offense certainly has the talent to stay dangerous in any stadium – CeeDee Lamb's caught a TD pass in five straight games – but Dallas' best road win this season has come against the Chargers. Until the Cowboys actually take down a contender on their own turf, their run of dominance comes with a big asterisk.

After getting lucky last week in Kansas City – if Kadarius Toney doesn't get lost in the moment and forget to check where he's lined up, that game-winning lateral from Travis Kelce would have a permanent place in highlight reels – the Bills are 7-6 and two games back of the Dolphins in the AFC East with four to play. That might be their best path to the playoffs, too, as tiebreakers currently have them sixth among all the 7-6 teams in the conference. Josh Allen's kept the offense churning with his legs, but his passing numbers have dwindled and he's reached a 7.0 YPA only once in the last five games, posting a 59.8 percent completion rate, 8:6 TD:INT and 6.8 YPA over that stretch. Even Stefon Diggs is suffering, failing to haul in 40 yards in three of those five games, and he hasn't had a 100-yard performance since Week 6. Three of those games have come with Joe Brady calling plays instead of deposed OC Ken Dorsey, and the switch doesn't seem to have had much impact beyond James Cook seeing a bit more usage as a receiver. With injuries continuing to undercut the defense's effectiveness, Allen and the offense need to figure things out, and fast, if Buffalo's going to salvage its season.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, illness)
BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DAL DFS targets: Cooks $5,200 DK / $6,300 FD (BUF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
BUF DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Gabe Davis $5,500 DK / $6,200 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: DAL is first in third-down conversions at 49.2 percent; BUF is t-17th in third-down defense at 39.3 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tony Pollard collects 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 290 yards and two scores, hitting Cooks and Jake Ferguson. Cook cooks up 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 250 yards and a TD to Diggs while also running in a score of his own, but he also tosses a gut-punch pick-six to (who else) DaRon Bland. Cowboys 31-24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Baltimore at Jacksonville (+3), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Winners of three straight and seven of their last eight, the Ravens sit in the top seed in the AFC, but if they get that week off to begin the playoffs they will have earned it. Baltimore wraps up its regular season with games against three other division leaders, including the 49ers, before a Week 18 battle with the Steelers. Lamar Jackson and the offense seem unstoppable right now – San Francisco, Miami and Dallas get all the attention for their passing games, but Baltimore's methodically scored more than 30 points in six of its last seven, mostly grinding teams into the dirt with its running game. Rookie Keaton Mitchell's emergence during that time has been a big part of that success, despite the fact he has yet to see double-digit carries in a game, and he's got an absurd 8.5 YPC over the last five games. That's reduced Gus Edwards to the role of short-yardage back, dependant of goal-line looks for any fantasy value. Meanwhile, Jackson still doesn't seem to quite have a handle on OC Todd Monken's scheme, failing to complete 60 percent of his passes in three of the last four games, although he does have a 7:3 TD:INT and 7.9 YPA in that time. He's fifth in the league in intended air yards per attempt, and taking shots downfield that don't connect is a little easier to swallow when you know your running game can bail you out, but if Odell Beckham continues to re-discover his old form – he's got a 17-343-3 line on 31 targets over the last five games – Jackson's efficiency could creep up a little higher. Yeah, that's just what the Ravens need, a more efficient offense.

The Jaguars are hanging onto the lead in the AFC South by their fingernails. Two straight one-score losses have left them with a one-game lead on the Colts and Texans, although at least in Indy's case, Jacksonville swept the season series to make them less of a threat to steal the division. I still don't understand how Trevor Lawrence was able to play last week after getting folded up like a futon by the Bengals the week before, but not only was he under center, he attempted a season-high 50 passes. That seems less than ideal, to be honest, especially when he was missing his most familiar target in Christian Kirk. It's the defense that's been the issue lately though, and with two starters missing in the secondary, the Jags probably can't afford to get into another shootout considering that they're given up 300-yard passing games to three straight QBs, including Jake Browning and Joe Flacco.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: TE Mark Andrews (IR, ankle), S Kyle Hamilton (questionable, knee)
JAC injuries: WR Kirk (IR, groin)

BAL DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Mitchell $5,100 DK / $6,100 FD and Edwards $5,700 DK / $5,700 FD (JAC second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed)
JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $6,600 DK / $7,500 FD (BAL second in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Zay Jones $4,000 DK / $5,700 FD (BAL third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: BAL is fifth in red-zone conversions at 62.7 percent (32-for-51), and second in red-zone trips; JAC is 19th in red-zone defense at 56.4 percent (22-for-39)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 20-25 mph wind, 35-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mitchell dashes for 90 yards, while Edwards adds 40 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 210 yards and a score to Beckham. Travis Etienne picks up 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Calvin Ridley. Ravens 20-14

SATURDAY

Minnesota (+3) at Cincinnati, o/u 40.5 – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

The Vikings' came out on the winning side of the league's most pitiful offensive display last week, a 3-0 anti-classic against the Raiders in which both teams were coming off byes and, in theory, had an extra week to game-plan for their opponents. The victory left Minnesota as the only 7-6 team in the NFC and still sitting in a wild-card spot, but it cost Joshua Dobbs his starting job at QB. (Frankly, I'm surprised OC Wes Phillips is still around too, but this is ultimately Kevin O'Connell's team and scheme so he would have been just a fall guy anyway.) Taking over will be Nick Mullens, who replaced Dobbs in the fourth quarter last week and led the game's only scoring drive. Mullens is the fourth quarterback to throw a pass for the Vikes this season, and he'll probably be the last, as turning back to fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall would be a true desperation play. Mullens hasn't started a game since 2021 and hasn't seen regular action since 2020, for good reason, but he's still probably an upgrade on Dobbs. He also won't have a full complement of weapons to work with, as Alexander Mattison's out and Justin Jefferson lasted only 13 snaps last week in his return from a hamstring injury before getting hurt again. DC Brian Flores' defense has been better than the sum of its parts, and over the last 10 games only Kansas City and, weirdly, Atlanta have scored more than 21 points against the Vikes, and the Falcons were the only ones to top 333 total yards. This might still be a playoff team without Kirk Cousins, just in a different form than most people expected.

After two strong performances in a row (three, really, considering his relief effort in Week 12), I'm prepared to offer a full and public apology to Jake Browning, and really the entire Bengals organization for doubting their ability to identify a good backup QB. He's been outstanding, full stop. In his two starts, he's produced five TDs (three passing, two rushing) against only one turnover, as well as completing a mere 82.0 percent of his passes with a 10.3 YPA. I mean, those are Brock Purdy numbers. Cincy's still one of the 7-6 teams in the AFC trying to elbow their way into the postseason mix (heading into Week 15, it was Pittsburgh and Indy holding wild-card spots, and Houston, Denver and Buffalo also on the outs based on tiebreakers) but their odds look a lot better right now than they did when Joe Burrow went down. Joe Mixon's been the biggest winner of the switch under center, racking up 242 scrimmage yards and three TDs in Browning's two starts, but Ja'Marr Chase has also had one ceiling performance, and Tee Higgins and even rookie RB Chase Brown have popped for big plays. The defense may also have steadied itself last week too, as it held an opponent under 300 total yards for the first time since Week 5. The Bengals have a tough closing schedule that includes trips to Pittsburgh and Kansas City, but at least it seems as though if they go down, they'll go down swinging.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: RB Mattison (out, ankle), WR Jefferson (questionable, chest), LB Jordan Hicks (IR, shin)
CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

MIN DFS targets: T.J. Hockenson $5,800 DK / $7,000 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
CIN DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN is 27th in red-zone conversions at 48.7 percent (19-for-39); CIN is 15th in red-zone defense at 53.1 percent (26-for-49)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ty Chandler pieces together 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Mullens throws for 210 yards and a TD to Hockenson. Mixon churns out 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Browning throws for 330 yards and three scores, hitting Higgins (who tops 100 yards) twice and Chase once. Bengals 28-20

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 42.5
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Mitch Trubisky's start last week predictably went poorly, and while the Steelers are still clinging to a wild-card spot, they've lost consecutive games to the Cards and Patriots, which doesn't exactly scream playoff contender. The firing of Matt Canada hasn't really done a lot for the offense, and the team hasn't produced more than 18 points in four straight contests, but the QB issues make it tough to judge how the pieces will fit together once Kenny Pickett is back. The backfield duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren has also suddenly gone cold, delivering a combined 220 scrimmage yards and zero TDs across those two losses and doing nothing to take the pressure off Trubisky. Pickett could be back next week, but given how tight the race for those AFC wild-card spots is, Pittsburgh might not be back to recover from another loss.

While the Steelers currently hold No. 6 seed in the conference, the Colts are No. 7 and also looking for answers after a near no-show against the Bengals last week. The offense is definitely missing Jonathan Taylor, as Zack Moss hasn't done much the last two games and Gardner Minshew tends to get in trouble when he tries to do too much. The key to Indy's season remains the defense, though. The team is 5-2 when the defense generates multiple takeaways and 2-4 when it only produces one – the Colts have yet to play a game this year in which they didn't steal the ball away at least once, which is an impressive feat for DC Gus Bradley's squad. Despite that, Indy's still only a net plus-1 in the turnover department on the season, which probably explains why they're still fighting for their postseason lives.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: QB Pickett (out, ankle), S Keanu Neal (IR, ribs)
IND injuries: RB Taylor (out, thumb)

PIT DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Alec Pierce $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

PIT DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT is 31st in red-zone conversions at 42.9 percent (12-for-28); IND is t-16th in red-zone defense at 54.8 percent (23-for-42)

The Scoop: Harris leads the PIT backfield with 70 yards and a TD, while Warren adds 50 yards. Trubisky throws for under 200 yards and a score to George Pickens but gets picked off twice. Moss manages 80 yards and a touchdown. Minshew throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Michael Pittman and Pierce. Colts 27-17

Denver (+4) at Detroit, o/u 47.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

A fairly easy win over the Chargers last week got the Broncos back on track, and their schedule gives them a pretty good chance of emerging from the pack in the AFC wild-card battle, as after this (admittedly tough) matchup they get the Pats and Bolts at home before wrapping up their campaign in Vegas. DC Vance Joseph's unit has become one of the league's biggest collection of ball thieves, racking up 17 takeaways over the last six games to fuel a 15.3 PPG against and help turn Denver's season around. Russell Wilson's run as one of the safest QBs in the league appears to have ended, though. After throwing only two INTs total between Weeks 4 and 12, he's been picked off four times in the last two contests, and by defenses in the Texans and Chargers not exactly known for elite secondaries. Javonte Williams did score his first rushing TD of 2023 last week, but in five games since the team's bye he's only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and still doesn't look like his pre-injury self. The Broncos might need him to suddenly surge to life if they're going to keep playing into January.

The Lions have lost two of their last three but still have a two-game bulge on the Vikings in the NFC North, and their first division crown in 30 years is oh-so-close. Jared Goff reverted back to being Road Goff in Chicago, but that won't be an issue in this one. While his splits haven't been as egregious in 2023 as they were the prior two years, he's still got a 99.6 QB rating at Ford Field this year, and weirdly has even been sacked less often at home. While a playoff spot is within reach and they aren't even out of the running for the No. 1 seed in the conference (which Goff would be very grateful for), it's hard to take the Lions seriously as a Super Bowl contender if the defense doesn't snap out of its funk. Since a Week 9 bye, Detroit's allowed nearly 30 points a game (29.8 PPG against), and the team as a whole has a minus-6 turnover differential. They're still 3-2 during that stretch because the offense is scoring 28.0 points a game and hasn't exactly faced the toughest opposition, but a Week 17 trip to Dallas could end up being a very rude wake-up call given the Lions' current form.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: TE Greg Dulcich (IR-R, hamstring), S P.J. Locke (questionable, neck)
DET injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, back)

DEN DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: David Montgomery $6,400 DK / $7,600 FD and Jahmyr Gibbs $6,700 DK / $7,500 FD (DEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Sam LaPorta $6,000 DK / $6,800 FD (DEN 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

DEN DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: none

Key stat: DEN is 21st in third-down conversions at 37.0 percent; DET is 15th in third-down defense at 37.9 percent

The Scoop: Williams gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 260 yards and two scores, one each to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Montgomery rumbles for 90 yards and a TD, while Gibbs adds 70 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Goff throws for 340 yards and two more scores, hitting Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and LaPorta. Lions 34-24

THURSDAY NIGHT

L.A. Chargers (+3) at Las Vegas, o/u 34.5
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Chargers' season was already probably over, but losing Justin Herbert should be the final nail in the coffin. Even if they win out, they're still only 9-8 in a conference that currently has four teams above .500 who are on the outside looking in for wild-card spots. The AFC's brutal this year, y'all. All that said, it would be so Chargers-like to do just that and play spoiler for the other teams on their schedule who still have something to play for (Buffalo, Denver and Kansas City.) It's not like there isn't still plenty of talent on the roster. Austin Ekeler perked up last week, and Keenan Allen... oh, he's out now too. Well, on defense Khalil Mack has basically sewn up Comeback Player of the Year with a career-high 15 sacks and counting, his first time reaching double digits since 2018, while Joey Bosa... is still on IR. Hmm. How the Bolts do down the stretch will ultimately come down to how the QB named after a baseball bat, Easton Stick, handles his first real opportunity in the NFL, but after the whole Jake Browning thing, I'm not writing him off as a scrub just yet.

The Raiders have lost three straight to also fall to 5-8, and the "ding dong, Josh McDaniels is gone" boost has worn off. There have been vague rumblings rookie Aidan O'Connell might cede the starting QB job back to Jimmy Garoppolo, but that seems kind of pointless given that the team's got a solid shot at landing a top-five pick in next year's draft. The bigger concern for this one is that Josh Jacobs is limping and Davante Adams is under the weather, but the latter at least seems likely to suit up. The Vegas offense has scored 17 points or less in four straight games though, continuing a pattern that has seen the team score 20 or more only twice all year – and in one of those, they needed a safety to get to 21. Expecting things to suddenly start clicking now is asking a lot.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: QB Herbert (IR, finger), WR Allen (out, heel), EDGE Bosa (IR, foot)
LV injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, quadriceps), WR Adams (questionable, illness), EDGE Maxx Crosby (questionable, knee)

LAC DFS targets: Chargers DST $3,200 DK / $4,000 FD (second in sacks, LV t-29th in giveaways)
LV DFS targets: Ameer Abdullah $4,800 DK / $5,100 FD (LAC 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

LAC DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 LAC, average score 25-21 LAC, average margin of victory eight points. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by a single score
Key stat: LAC are fourth in red-zone conversions at 63.2 percent (24-for-38); LV is 25th in red-zone defense at 62.2 percent (23-for-37)

The Scoop: Ekeler gains 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Stick throws for under 200 yards but runs for 40 and tosses a TD to Gerald Everett. Abdullah leads the LV backfield with 70 combined yards, while Zamir White adds 40. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards with a score to Adams. Chargers 17-16

Last week's record: 8-7, 5-9-1 ATS, 6-9 o/u
2023 record: 121-87, 99-102-7 ATS, 113-92-3 o/u