NFL Game Previews: Bears-Vikings Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Chicago (+3.5) at Minnesota, o/u 43 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Justin Fields Watch is officially on after the QB returned to the Bears' lineup last week and nearly stole a win over the Lions by running for 104 yards. He was efficient as a passer too, albeit on low volume, and more performances like that one might be enough to convince the front office to keep their bird in the hand, as opposed to using their pair of top-five picks in the bush to go get a new signal-caller. Really though, I expect Caleb Williams (or, fine, Drake Maye) to be under center for Chicago in Week 1 of 2024, if for no other reason than the FOMO of having had a chance to draft C.J. Stroud in 2023 and passing it up. They're basically positioned to do next year what the Texans are doing right now, only they won't need to trade up to get their own Will Anderson since they already have that second high pick in their pocket. If Fields improves his trade value in the meantime, so much the better. For right now though, the backfield is a mess again with Khalil Herbert looking pretty bad in his own return last week, while D'Onta Foreman is now hurt. You'd think it would be Roschon Johnson time – the rookie does have a 4.5 YPC – but Herbert had a 5.3 YPC before getting hurt, so that probably buys him at least one more shot.

Last week's one-point loss to the Broncos was pretty agonizing for the Vikings, who really don't have any wiggle room if they're going to make the postseason. Joshua Dobbs threw his first INT in purple and gold, but he's produced seven TDs (four passing, three rushing) against four turnovers in three games, so it's not like Kevin O'Connell's going to hand the reins to Nick Mullens. Minnesota's also resisted the urge to rush Justin Jefferson back into the lineup, and it looks more and more likely he won't be back until after next week's bye. In the end it'll probably come down to whether Brian Flores' defense can keep playing over its apparent heads. Despite a lack of brand-name talent on that side of the ball other than Danielle Hunter and Harrison Smith, the team is 5-0 when they hold the opposition under 20 points... and 1-5 when they don't.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB Foreman (doubtful, ankle)
MIN injuries: WR Jefferson (IR-R, hamstring), LB Jordan Hicks (IR, shin)

CHI DFS targets: Darnell Mooney $3,300 DK / $5,500 FD (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
MIN DFS targets: Dobbs $5,900 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI 27th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing TDs allowed)

CHI DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 MIN, average score 21-19 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. MIN has won five straight meetings, including a 19-13 victory in Week 6
Key stat: CHI is 32nd in both third-down defense (47.6 percent) and red-zone defense (75.0 percent, 24-for-32)

The Scoop: Herbert leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Fields throws for under 200 yards and runs for 50, tossing a touchdown to Mooney. Alexander Mattison puts together 90 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Dobbs throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Brandon Powell while also running in a touchdown of his own. Vikings 28-17

EARLY SUNDAY

New Orleans (+1) at Atlanta, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Saints come out of their bye as the only team in the NFC South that isn't below .500, which seems about right. Derek Carr picked up a concussion in their last game, but the week off gave him time to clear the protocol and he should be fine for this one. He had been starting to get the hang of his new offense, throwing for multiple TDs or 300 yards in five straight starts prior to his early Week 10 exit, but New Orleans was only 2-3 in those games as the defense, particularly on the ground, took a step backward. The Saints also lost Michael Thomas against the Vikings, potentially for the year, but he hadn't been providing many flashes of his old form anyway. Rookie A.T. Perry should be able to step into Thomas' role, and while this roster doesn't have a lot of big names on offense aside from Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, there's more talent here than you might think.

The Falcons are also coming out of their bye and sit just one game back in the division, so a win here would put them in first place on tiebreakers at 5-6, for what that's worth in late November. Atlanta also had their starting QB get hurt in its last game, but unlike Carr, Taylor Heinicke won't be back in the job after a week off. He's still dealing with a hamstring strain, and coach Arthur Smith is turning back to Desmond Ridder, and even threatening to do so for the rest of the season while nattering on about continuity or whatever. Heinicke isn't great, but the offense was playing better under him than it was under Ridder – Bijan Robinson topped 100 scrimmage yards in Week 10 for the first time since the beginning of October, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts... OK, they still have their pictures on milk cartons throughout Fulton County. (I did say Heinicke wasn't great.) Ridder's big issue was turnovers – 12 in nine games – so the more the team relies on its running game and keeps the ball out of Ridder's hands, the better. That might not be enough, though. The Atlanta defense has given up 25 or more points only three times in 2023, but all three performances came in the last three games, against true juggernaut offenses like the Titans (27th in PPG) and Cardinals (25th). The Falcons lost all three, and it's telling that they were the opponent for both the Will Levis Game and the Joshua Dobbs Game. On paper, they have a pretty easy closing schedule, but it won't matter if they can't even slow down guys like that.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Thomas (IR, knee)
ATL injuries: QB Heinicke (questionable, hamstring)

NO DFS targets: Carr $5,800 DK / $6,800 FD (ATL 30th in passing DVOA, t-27th in passing TDs allowed), Kamara $8,400 DK / $8,700 FD (ATL 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
ATL DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 NO, average score 26-21 NO, average margin of victory eight points. NO has won five straight meetings at Mercedes-Benz Stadium by an average score of 29-23
Key stat: ATL is 12th in third-down conversions at 41.4 percent; NO is fifth in third-down defense at 34.8 percent

The Scoop: Kamara piles up 110 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Carr throws for 290 yards and a second TD to Olave. Robinson gains 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Ridder throws for under 200 yards and a score to KhaDarel Hodge, but he also tosses a pick-six to Paulson Adebo. Saints 24-20

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+1), o/u 34.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Blame Canada, indeed. Mike Tomlin's loyalty to his people is admirable, and continuity is the Steelers' way – after all, this is a franchise that's had only three head coaches over the last half-century (54 years, to be precise) – but there was nothing OC Matt Canada showed during his first two seasons in charge of the offense to warrant being brought back in 2023, and the delay in replacing him couldn't have helped Kenny Pickett's development. Pittsburgh's 6-4 and sitting in a wild-card spot, and catching Baltimore for the AFC North title isn't out of the question, but even that amount of success this season has come in spite of the offense, not because of it. Only the Jets have managed fewer downs, and no team has made fewer trips to the red zone. The Steelers are bottom five in points per game, yards per play, percentage of their drives ending in a score... it's been brutal. The defense has held six straight opponents to 20 points or less, and they've still only gone 4-2 in that stretch. Getting out-scored last week by a team with a rookie QB who threw for 165 yards and zero touchdowns was the final straw, but really, the final straw should have come a long time ago. New interim coordinator Eddie Faulkner had been the RB coach, which makes sense since that had been the one thing about the offense that had been working. Jaylen Warren has been the team's biggest weapon for a while now to a comical degree, rushing for 318 yards and an incomprehensible 9.1 YPC over the last three games, but under Canada he'd remained stuck in a timeshare with Najee Harris (186 rushing yards and a 4.2 YPC over the same stretch). That could change with Faulkner calling the shots.

The Bengals have fallen to the basement in the division, and they probably aren't getting out. Joe Burrow's season-ending wrist injury isn't something they'll be able to come back from, unless Jake Browning – a guy who didn't throw his first NFL pass until Week 1 of this year after going undrafted in 2019 and hanging around practice squads ever since – is the next Tony Romo. Ja'Marr Chase did catch Browning's first career TD last week, but he only had one other reception. The ceiling of the whole offense is now in the ditch, and a defense that's given up 64 points and 949 yards of offense over the last two weeks, even if it was against C.J. Stroud and Lamar Jackson, probably isn't going to save the season. Joe Mixon's the one player who could emerge relatively unscathed, or even thrive, and he's already got a four-game TD streak going. He saw over 20 touches last week for the first time since Week 5 and just the second time all year, and the only thing that mind stand between Mixon and a massive workload down the stretch is the coaching staff's desire to get a better look at rookie Chase Brown (IR-R with a hamstring injury) once a wild-card spot is officially out of reach.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: WR George Pickens (questionable, shin), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (questionable, hamstring)
CIN injuries: QB Burrow (out, wrist), WR Tee Higgins (questionable, hamstring), DE Sam Hubbard (questionable, ankle)

PIT DFS targets: Warren $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD and Harris $4,900 DK / $6,700 FD (CIN 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed)
CIN DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Tanner Hudson $2,700 DK / $4,800 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 PIT, average score 21-21 (21.3-20.6 PIT), average margin of victory 13 points. CIN has won four of the last five meetings, but PIT's lone victory in that stretch was a 23-20 win on the road in Week 1 of 2022
Key stat: CIN is eighth in red-zone conversions at 59.3 percent (16-for-27); PIT is fourth in red-zone defense at 40.0 percent (12-for-30)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Warren jets for 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Harris adds 50 yards. Pickett throws for under 200 yards but does find Pat Freiermuth for a score. Mixon grinds out 70 yards and a TD. Browning throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Charlie Jones but gets picked off twice. Steelers 17-14

Jacksonville at Houston (+1.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Things are getting very interesting in the AFC South. The Jaguars remain on top of the division after thumping the Titans last week, and while Trevor Lawrence did produce a season-high four TDs, two of them came on the ground, which kind of doesn't count. While his efficiency numbers have improved slightly since last season, the third-year QB has yet to throw more than two passing touchdowns in a game in 2023 and has only 11 through 10 contests while averaging under 240 passing yards a game. That's been good enough against lesser clubs, but that Week 10 rout at the hands of the 49ers seemed to highlight how big a gap there still is between Jacksonville and true Super Bowl contenders. Both of Lawrence's passing TDs went to Calvin Ridley though, and if the former Falcon can get rolling, the upside of the whole offense would increase exponentially.

The team hot on Jacksonville's heels for the division crown? The Jaguars' nemesis the Texans, who have won three straight games and four of the last five as Stroudmania sweeps the football world. C.J. Stroud did throw multiple picks in a game last week for the first time in his career, but he's also produced nine TDs (eight passing, one rushing) over those last three games while averaging 387.3 passing yards with a 67.8 percent completion rate and a 9.8 YPA. While the rookie QB has been getting all the attention though, Devin Singletary has all but stolen the starting job in the backfield, and DeMeco Ryans' defense has kept on trucking despite a number of key injuries and absences. The Houston defense has done just enough the last few weeks to make Stroud's late-game heroics possible, and if the unit can get healthy, it could go from feisty and annoying to actually dangerous in a hurry.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee)
HOU injuries: WR Noah Brown (questionable, knee), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (IR, quadriceps), LB Denzel Perryman (out, suspension), LB Henry To'oTo'o (questionable, concussion)

JAC DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Singletary $6,000 DK / $7,300 FD (JAC second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 HOU, average score 24-15 HOU, average margin of victory 15 points. JAC's lone win in this rivalry since 2017 came on the road in Week 17 of last season, a 31-3 victory. Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 14 points or more
Key stat: JAC is t-28th in red-zone conversions at 46.4 percent (13-for-28); HOU is t-12th in red-zone defense at 51.5 percent (17-for-33)

The Scoop: Travis Etienne collects 70 yards. Lawrence throws for 310 yards and three TDs, finding Ridley (who tops 100 yards), Evan Engram and Zay. Singletary gets held to 40 yards. Stroud throws for 350 yards and three scores of his own, two to Nico Collins (who tops 100 yards) and one to Dalton Schultz, and he adds another game-winning drive to his resume. Texans 27-24

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Buccaneers' early bye did them no favors. Tampa's lost five of six since then, and while they could still claim the NFC South title (since nobody else seems to really want it), the team isn't exactly building much momentum. The defense has given up over 400 yards to four of the last five offenses it's faced, and holding a Will Levis-led Titans squad to six points doesn't look very impressive in hindsight. Injuries have certainly been an issue, but while the Bucs have remained stout against the run, Todd Bowles' scheme has disintegrated on the back end and the team is headed for its worst performance against the pass since his first year in Tampa back in 2019. That might be manageable if this was still the offense that saw Jameis Winston lead the league in passing yards, but Baker Mayfield ain't that guy. Since the bye he's posted a 61.8 percent completion rate, 6.7 YPA and 8:4 TD:INT – not terrible numbers by any means, but not the kind of production that will be able to climb out of the holes the secondary is digging. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still capable of being threats, and the team's found a little something lately with Rachaad White, but Mayfield's still only turned that arsenal into 18 points a game since the bye – and only 14.2 a game if you toss out the weird, wild loss to the Texans that saw a running back kick a field goal and the teams trade last-minute TDs.

Then again, if any opponent is going to get that kind of game of out the Bucs, it's the Colts. Coming out of its bye, Indy's had six games this season in which the teams combined for 50 or more points, and two with 60-plus, and the defense had a run of three straight duds to close out October, averaging 38.0 PPG allowed. A 10-6 win over the Patriots before the break didn't really prove anything other than how bad New England's offense is. Gardner Minshew hasn't impressed, delivering a 61.3 percent completion rate, 6.8 YPA and 6:6 TD:INT in five games since taking over as the starting QB, but he's still been able to put points on the board thanks to a lot of short fields – the Indy defense may give up points, but it's also generated at least one takeaway in every game. After needing a couple weeks to shake off the rust following his contract dispute, Jonathan Taylor's galloped for 361 scrimmage yards with three TDs over the last four games while seeing over 20 touches in three of them. The Colts may be the third wheel in the AFC South division title race, but their closing schedule is soft enough that they could be in the mix for a playoff spot right through the holidays.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Godwin (questionable, knee), LB Devin White (questionable, foot), LB Lavonte David (out, groin)
IND injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

TB DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Minshew $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (TB 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed), Alec Pierce $3,200 DK / $5,000 FD (TB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

TB DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 14th in net yards per play at 0.03; TB is 28th at -0.77

The Scoop: White pieces together 80 combined yards. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, both to Evans. Taylor gains 70 yards and a score. Minshew throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Pierce and Michael Pittman, and E.J. Speed returns a fumble to the house. Colts 28-20

New England at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 33.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Would anyone mind if I just skipped this one? Do I really have to find something to say about these teams? Ugh. Bill Belichick continues to tarnish his legacy, and while the last couple of seasons aren't going to keep him out of the Hall of Fame or anything, the whole "Brady made Belichick, not the other way around" argument has definitely gained some traction. The Patriots are inching closer to a top-two pick, and a new potential franchise QB, in the 2024 draft, but in the meantime they keep jerking Mac Jones around and spent their bye week dithering over whether Jones or Bailey Zappe would be under center. Jones' stagnation shouldn't be surprising given the torrent of nonsense that's been poured into his ear since he was drafted from the likes of Bill O'Brien, Joe Judge and Josh McDaniels, all coaches who crashed and burned hard when they got chances to run teams on their own. Rhamondre Stevenson had his two best performances of the year before the bye, but otherwise there's just not a lot of talent for the QBs to lean on. The Pats have scored more than 20 points only once so far in 2023, and even a game against the Giants might not get them over that hump.

New England's QB and general offensive issues pale in comparison to Big Blue's problems though. Undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito put up numbers against the Commanders (and somehow that wasn't what cost Jack Del Rio his job), but the Giants are 2-0 against Washington and 1-8 against everyone else, and the latter's a lot more representative of how they've played. DeVito had a 5.6 YPA in his first two starts, and his best receiving option is Saquon Barkley. Saquon's the only player in this offense that the other team has to worry about, and after he saw a 1980s-esque 39 touches back in Week 8 that would have made James Wilder proud, Brian Daboll has at least been smart enough to try and limit his workload so he doesn't burn out. If New York doesn't wind up getting one of the elite quarterbacks prospects in the 2024 draft, I do wonder if Barkley will want any part of returning next season. He's been remarkably loyal to the franchise so far despite this past summer's contract shenanigans, but this season's been the kind of disaster that could make him question that commitment. It's not just that the front office made keeping Daniel Jones a priority over keeping him; it's that they thought Jones was a guy to prioritize at all.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, concussion), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, hamstring)
NYG injuries: QB Tyrod Taylor (IR, ribs), WR Darius Slayton (questionable, neck), TE Darren Waller (IR, hamstring), LB Bobby Okereke (questionable, hip)

NE DFS targets: Stevenson $5,800 DK / $6,800 FD (NYG 28th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
NYG DFS targets: Jalin Hyatt $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NE DFS fades: Hunter Henry $3,400 DK / $5,200 FD (NYG third in DVOA vs. TE)
NYG DFS fades: Slayton $3,500 DK / $5,700 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NYG are 30th in red-zone conversions at 39.3 percent (11-for-28); NE is t-7th in red-zone defense at 45.5 percent (15-for-33)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Stevenson romps for 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Jones starts and throws for under 200 yards, but he avoids turnovers and finds Demario Douglas for a score. Barkley stitches together 80 yards. DeVito throws for under 200 yards, gets sacked four times and picked off twice. Patriots 14-10

Carolina (+3.5) at Tennessee, o/u 36.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

First turnover loses? These two teams are tied for last in the league in takeaways, so if one of them can produce one, it might decide the game right there. The Panthers remain on track to hand the top pick in the 2024 draft over to the Bears, and are the only one-win team left in the league. Since a Week 7 bye, Carolina's failed to score more than 15 points in any game, and Frank Reich pulled the plug on letting OC Thomas Brown call the plays pretty quickly. It's not like Brown has much to work with. Bryce Young hasn't produced a YPA of even 5.0 in three straight games and hasn't thrown multiple TDs in five straight, and while the rookie will show occasional flashes of his upside, he hasn't exactly been set up to succeed. Chuba Hubbard's averaging a 3.3 YPC since the bye and could be about to hand the starting job back to Miles Sanders now that he's healthy, but that's hardly going to move the needle. The Panthers' closing schedule is also brutal for their backfield – after this one they face the Bucs twice, plus the Saints, Jags and Falcons, all of whom rank in the top 10 in production allowed to RBs. If this offense is going to show any life at all down the stretch, it's going to be on Young.

The Titans likely aren't going to be one of the teams in the market for a QB in next year's draft. Will Levis has been erratic, to put it politely, but he at least looked better in last week's loss to Jacksonville than he did the two weeks prior. His four-TD debut against Atlanta still seems like a fever dream, but his 9.3 YPA last week was actually better than the 8.2 mark from his debut, even if it did come on only 17 attempts. That figures to be the formula Mike Vrabel sticks with the rest of the way – limit Levis' volume, and lean heavily on Derrick Henry. If the defense were better, that could produce some wins too, but the Titans haven't held anybody under 20 points since a hobbled Joe Burrow back in Week 4. The unit isn't even giving up a whole lot of yards; it just can't get stops. Only the Broncos have given up scores on a higher percentages of the drives against them, and only the fact that they're second in red-zone defense has kept them from getting blown out on a regular basis as they force field goals instead of coughing up TDs. It's a bend but don't break philosophy taken to an extreme.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: TE Hayden Hurst (out, concussion), LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, shoulder)
TEN injuries: WR Treylon Burks (questionable, concussion)

CAR DFS targets: Adam Thielen $7,300 DK / $7,500 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
TEN DFS targets: Henry $6,400 DK / $7,800 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST $3,100 DK / $3,700 FD (CAR t-31st in takeaways, 31st in sacks)
TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR is t-19th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent (12-for-24), and 29th in red-zone trips; TEN is second in red-zone defense at 37.8 percent (14-for-37)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Sanders leads the CAR backfield with 50 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards but hits Thielen for a score. Henry rumbles for 80 yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for under 200 yards and a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. Titans 20-13

LATE SUNDAY

L.A. Rams at Arizona (PK), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Last week's win over the Seahawks gave the Rams a little life, but at 4-6 their path to a playoff spot requires other teams to collapse down the stretch, not just them playing well. Matthew Stafford didn't do much in his return from a one-game absence, and the 35-year-old just hasn't looked that good in 2023. He's thrown multiple TDs in a game only once, and he's headed for a sub-60 percent completion rate for the first time since 2013, back when that didn't seem like such a big deal. The Rams still have plenty of offensive talent when it's healthy, and Kyren Williams should be back this week to steady the backfield, but it's hard to imagine this team making any noise without Stafford turning things around. The defense did look good against Seattle, but it was the first time Aaron Donald and company had held a team under 300 yards since Week 1. Donald's contract becomes a little less untradable this offseason, so I wonder if the front office tries to talk him into accepting one next spring. His numbers may have dwindled the last couple years, but the 32-year-old can still wreck a game now and then, especially if he were on a roster where offenses had other guys to account for.

The Cardinals have looked more competitive in general since getting Kyler Murray back under center, and that might be enough to take them out of the running for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in next year's draft – of their six remaining games, three of them (Rams, Steelers, Bears) seem outright winnable, and the Seahawks might not have anything to play for in Week 18. Murray's shown no ill effects from his knee surgery, running for a TD in each of his first two starts of the year and doing stuff like this, so the decision on whether to keep him around in 2024 or rebuild around another QB could get a lot more difficult over the next month. Trey McBride is also emerging as a star – in four games since Zach Ertz hit the IR, the first tight end taken in last year's draft has gotten tired of being upstaged by all the rookie TEs and posted a 26-291-1 line on 35 targets. Even if Ertz makes it back before the end of the year, the Cards have no reason to feature him again. The defense has also been hit hard by injuries, so it's tough to judge how effective Jonathan Gannon's been at remolding the unit, but there isn't much reason to expect a quick turnaround here.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Williams (IR-R, ankle)
ARI injuries: RB Emari Demercado (questionable, toe), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, heel), WR Michael Wilson (out, shoulder), TE Ertz (IR, quadriceps), LB Kyzir White (IR, elbow)

LAR DFS targets: Cooper Kupp $8,000 DK / $8,000 FD (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
ARI DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: Rondale Moore $3,600 DK / $5,200 FD (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 10-2 LAR, average score 28-16 LAR, average margin of victory 15 points. LAR have won eight straight road games in this rivalry, with their last loss at State Farm Stadium coming in Week 10 of the 2014 season. Bruce Arians out-coached Jeff Fisher in a 31-14 win on the strength of defensive TDs by Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie.
Key stat: LAR are 14th in third-down conversions at 40.7 percent; ARI is 31st in third-down defense at 46.8 percent

The Scoop: Williams picks up 60 yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 270 yards and two scores, one to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and one to Tutu Atwell. James Conner churns out 70 yards and a TD. Murray throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to McBride. Rams 24-20

Cleveland (+2.5) at Denver, o/u 35 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Have the Browns checked to see if Myles Garrett can play quarterback? Cleveland's won three straight and five of six since their bye to stay very firmly in the chase for a playoff spot and the AFC North crown. Over that stretch, PJ Walker has been on the field for 210 snaps, Deshaun Watson 151, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson 74. Just the way they drew it up in the preseason. Over that same six-game period, Garrett's racked up 7.5 sacks, two passes defended, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. Looking at the bigger picture, the offense has given the ball away 10 times in that time, but the defense has taken it away 12 times. You get the idea. Aside from a blowout of the Cardinals, the Browns are winning games by the skin of their teeth, and only because the defense is so damn stingy. DTR looks like he'll be the QB the rest of the way, and while the rookie got credit for winning the game last week, it really had little to do with him and his 3.8 YPA. If Thompson-Robinson can avoid making too many mistakes, it could be enough though – Cleveland's closing schedule isn't a difficult one, with only a home game against the Jags in Week 14 (in December weather on the shores of Lake Erie... good luck, Trevor Lawrence) and a road tilt against the Texans in Week 16 standing out. (I suppose if Aaron Rodgers is back for the Jets in Week 17, they could play spoiler too.) Bonus fantasy tip: get all the David Njoku shares you can. Last week's 15 targets from DTR could end up being an outlier, but his schedule to this point has been brutal (seven of 10 games against teams that rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs). The rest of the way, he faces the worst three defenses against TEs in terms of FPts/Gm, and no one that ranks higher than 17th.

I have to hand it to Sean Payton for sticking with the program and pulling the Broncos up off the mat. Losers of their first three games and five of their first six, including THAT game against the Dolphins, the Horsies have won four straight and all of them against teams that are in the playoff conversation, including Kansas City and Buffalo. Like Cleveland, it's been the defense fueling that success – over the last five contests, Denver's allowed 17.4 points per game and generated 14 takeaways, giving Russell Wilson an opportunity to barely eke out victories. The 34-year-old is putting up numbers sort of in the same vein as Drew Brees did late in his tenure with Payton in New Orleans, boasting an elevated completion rate but reduced YPA, but Wilson's 7.0 YPA is a half-yard lower than Brees' worst performance, as well as being the worst mark of his own career. It's not entirely on him, though. With Courtland Sutton as the QB's only reliable target – Jerry Jeudy's just kind of there, Greg Dulcich can't stay healthy, and Marvin Mims' biggest impact has come in the return game – and Javonte Williams averaging less than four yards a carry, there's just not a lot of juice to squeeze out of this offense. At least Sutton and Jeudy won't have to worry about Denzel Ward in this one.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DEN injuries: TE Dulcich (IR, hamstring)

CLE DFS targets: Jerome Ford $5,600 DK / $6,700 FD and Kareem Hunt $4,800 DK / $6,000 FD (DEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)
DEN DFS targets: Broncos DST $3,200 DK / $4,100 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, CLE t-29th in giveaways)

CLE DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: Wilson $5,400 DK / $7,000 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed), Williams $5,700 DK / $6,400 FD (CLE first in rushing DVOA), Sutton $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Adam Trautman $2,600 DK / $4,500 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: DEN is 18th in third-down conversions at 38.2 percent; CLE is first in third-down defense at 25.4 percent – which would be the best third-down defense since NE led the league in 2019 with a 24.1 percent mark

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ford gains 80 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 60 scrimmage yards. DTR throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Njoku. Williams managed 60 yards. Wilson throws for under 200 yards and a score to Sutton. Browns 17-10

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+9), o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The champs are going to flip the switch at some point, right? Over the last five games, the only defense Kansas City has looked like themselves against is the Chargers, and that hardly counts since anybody can score 30 points against the Chargers. Last week against the Eagles, coming out a bye week no less when Andy Reid is supposed to be unbeatable, the offense looked downright pedestrian in a 21-17 loss. Patrick Mahomes threw for under 200 yards for a second string game – the first time that's happened since 2019. (Curious coincidence/good omen department: both games came on either side of a November bye that year too. They went on to win Super Bowl LIV.) Even during that scoring lull though, the AFC West leaders still went 3-2 thanks to the defense, and I have a hard time buying either the Broncos or Raiders as credible challengers. Plus, Buffalo's the only team left on KC's schedule with a winning record. Mahomes has plenty of time to turn things around, but he really needs someone other than Travis Kelce to step up. If Mahomes is interested, I know someone he can ask for advice about how to keep things fresh when you run through your old playbook.

Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce took his first loss last week against the Dolphins, but keeping things close and holding Miami to 20 points definitely counts as a moral victory. At 5-6, Vegas is somehow still in the wild-card race, and they'll get a well-timed bye next week to evaluate what's been working and what hasn't since Josh McDaniels was tossed out on his ear. Rookie QB Aidan O'Connell hasn't been completely terrible, but a 60.2 percent completion rate, 6.8 YPA and 2:4 TD:INT aren't going to win many games, either. He's at least remembering to throw the ball to Davante Adams, who's seen 13 targets in back-to-back weeks and topped 80 receiving yards in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 2-3. Last week's defensive effort was impressive, and can't be dismissed the way holding the Giants and Jets to a combined 18 points can be, but there's a good chance Maxx Crosby will miss this one, and that could be too big a hole in the unit to overcome. Unless Marcus Peters has one more revenge game left in him, this appears to be setting up nicely to be a get-right game for Kansas City.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (out, groin), WR Kadarius Toney (out, ankle), WR Mecole Hardman (out, thumb)
LV injuries: EDGE Crosby (doubtful, knee), LB Robert Spillane (questionable, ankle)

KC DFS targets: Kansas City DST $3,100 DK / $5,000 FD (third in sacks, LV t-31st in giveaways)
LV DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: O'Connell $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (KC third in passing DVOA), Adams $7,800 DK / $7,700 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 KC, average score 36-19 KC, average margin of victory 19 points. KC has won five straight road games in this rivalry by an average score of 35-20
Key stat: KC is fifth in net yards per play at 0.86; LV is 25th at -0.56

The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco musters up 60 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and two touchdown, one each to Kelce and Rashee Rice (who tops 100 yards). Josh Jacobs manages 50 yards. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Jakobi Meyers but gets picked off twice and sacked four times. Kansas City 27-13

Buffalo (+3.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Hitting the panic button seems to have worked for the Bills, at least for the moment. Under interim OC Joe Brady, Josh Allen had his best performance in over a month as the team hung 32 points on the Jets, the most New York had given up all year. Allen did throw another pick, but it came on an end-of-half hail mary so he gets a mulligan on it. While James Cook topped 100 scrimmage yards for the second straight game though, the way the passing production got distributed was wonky, to say the least. Stefon Diggs had his lowest yardage total of the year, but that was still better than Gabe Davis, who didn't even see a target. Instead, Khalil Shakir went off and Allen's other two TD passes went to RBs. That may have been a case of Brady wanting to avoid the strength of the Jets' defense, but it's still an extreme shift. It also shouldn't be the case in this one – Philly's brand-name corners haven't been playing up to their salaries, with James Bradberry in particular struggling. The Bills could really use a win here if they're going to at least give the Dolphins a fight for the AFC East title and make their Week 18 meeting meaningful. After next week's bye, Buffalo faces KC and Dallas back-to-back.

The Eagles remained the only team in the league with just one loss after slipping by Kansas City last week in a Super Bowl rematch, one game after slipping by the Cowboys. Finding a way has kind of been their thing – Philly's won three straight by a single score, and in all three the other team racked up more yards and first downs. Washington even won the turnover battle 2-1, and came up just short in the final score. That's not a sustainable formula for success, especially given the brutal stretch of schedule the NFC East leaders are in, but there's also enough talent on the roster to start putting opponents away with a little more gusto. Jalen Hurts has produced multiple TDs in nine straight games, needing two rushing scores last week to do it, but the team has rotated which skill position player has been the big dog. It was D'Andre Swift early, then A.J. Brown went on a tear, and now it seems to be DeVonta Smith's turn (16-249-2 on 18 targets over the last three games.) In theory, it'll all come together by the end of the regular season, just in time for the playoffs. In theory.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (IR, wrist)
PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (out, forearm)

BUF DFS targets: Dalton Kincaid $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Bills DST $2,700 DK / $3,900 FD (t-2nd in takeaways, second in sacks)
PHI DFS targets: Smith $7,100 DK / $7,400 FD (BUF 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

BUF DFS fades: Cook $6,200 DK / $6,500 FD (PHI first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)
PHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is third in red-zone conversions at 65.9 percent (27-for-41); PHI is t-25th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent (20-for-32)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook scampers for 80 combined yards. Allen throws for 280 yards and two scores, one each to Kincaid and Diggs, while also running in a touchdown. Swift answers back with 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Hurts throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Smith and Jack Stoll, but a Terrel Bernard fumble return TD proves decisive. Bills 28-27

SUNDAY NIGHT

Baltimore at L.A. Chargers (+3.5), o/u 47 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Last week's game against Cincy may end up costing both the Bengals and Ravens dearly. Joe Burrow's done for the year, but so is Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson's most reliable option in the passing game. Given how tight the AFC North is, it could be tough for Baltimore to stay on top down a key piece. Then again, the Ravens' defense has held four different opponents to single-digit points this year – including the Lions and Seahawks – so maybe their margin for error just got a little smaller. They also have a shiny new toy in Keaton Mitchell, who's giving them a big-play threat in the backfield. Over the last three games, the rookie has 23 touches, and five of them have gone for gains of 20-plus yards. Gus Edwards is still the lead back and is feasting in the red zone with nine rushing TDs over the last five contests, but it's going to be hard to keep Mitchell in a secondary role if he keeps busting loose.

As for the Chargers, there really isn't much left to say. Brandon Staley has to be dead man walking at this point, right? Justin Herbert has looked like himself again the last couple games and it hasn't mattered, because the defense is awful and getting worse with Joey Bosa now on the shelf. The Bolts' secondary has held its own against three quarterbacks all year – Zach Wilson, Tyson Bagent and Aidan O'Connell. Anybody better than a raw rookie (or someone who plays like one), and they're toast. Even Ryan Tannehill posted a 123.3 QB rating against them back in Week 2, for pity's sake, which should have been the big warning sign. The Chargers have four division games left – two against Denver, one each against Vegas and KC – plus one against the reeling Patriots, so maybe they pull this season out of the fire somehow at like 9-8, and send Staley out the door with some dignity as a one-and-done wild-card team. I'm not holding my breath, though.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: WR Zay Flowers (questionable, hip), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, shoulder), TE Andrews (IR, ankle)
LAC injuries: WR Joshua Palmer (IR, knee), WR Jalen Guyton (questionable, groin), TE Gerald Everett (questionable, chest), EDGE Bosa (IR, foot)

BAL DFS targets: Jackson $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (LAC 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), Flowers $5,600 DK / $6,300 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
LAC DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: Herbert $7,800 DK / $8,200 FD (BAL second in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed), Quentin Johnston $4,000 DK / $5,900 FD (BAL second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: BAL is second in net yards per play at 1.61; LAC are 21st at -0.30

The Scoop: Mitchell leads the BAL backfield with 90 yards and a score, while Edwards adds 60 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, finding Flowers and Isaiah Likely. Austin Ekeler picks up 80 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Herbert throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Keenan Allen. Ravens 34-24

THANKSGIVING

Green Bay (+7.5) at Detroit, o/u 47 – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

At 4-6, the Packers' season is hanging by a thread. They're actually the top team outside of a wild-card berth in the NFC right now, but they're also two wins back of the Seahawks and Vikings for one of those last spots. Green Bay has won two of their last three, sweeping a series against the LA teams, but the Pack haven't won a road game since Week 1, which is also the last time they scored more than 24 points. Jordan Love might be putting things together – he's got a 64.2 percent completion rate, 7.9 YPA and 5:2 TD:INT over those last three games – but the quality of the opposition has to be taken into account there. While he did well against the Rams and Bolts, the Steelers held him to a 52.5 percent completion rate and nabbed both INTs. Love's supporting cast is also falling apart. Aaron Jones is hurt again, Luke Musgrave was briefly hospitalized for an abdominal issue this week, and various other skill players are banged up. Even kick returner Keisean Nixon is dealing with an ankle issue. Maybe someday the kid will be ready to stitch together one of those classic Packer QB games where he keeps slinging it to a bunch of relatively anonymous targets, but Thanksgiving 2023 doesn't seem like it will be that day.

The Lions are really just waiting for the Vikings' bubble to burst to lock up the NFC North crown, and turn their focus toward catching the Eagles for the top seed in the conference. Detroit's won three straight games and seven of eight, and Dan Campbell's boys have mostly put that stinging loss to the Ravens in Week 7 behind them by piling up 72 points over the last two weeks against the Chargers and Bears. The scary thing is, this offense might not yet have revealed its final form. David Montgomery (192 rushing yards, two TDs) and Jahmyr Gibbs (207 scrimmage yards, three TDs) have been outstanding the last couple weeks, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has either scored a touchdown or topped 100 yards (or both) in every game he's played this year, but 2022 12th overall pick Jameson Williams is beginning to blossom as well now that he's been able to stay on the field and develop some kind of routine for basically the first time in his career. Toss rookie tight end Sam LaPorta into that mix as well, and you have an attack that can match any team in the league for raw firepower. The Jared Goff home/road splits thing hasn't been quite as pronounced this season as it was his first two years with Detroit, but the Lions still have as much incentive as anybody to lock down home-field advantage as deep into the playoffs as they can get it.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jones (out, knee), RB AJ Dillon (questionable, groin), TE Musgrave (IR, abdomen), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, neck), S Rudy Ford (questionable, biceps)
DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

GB DFS targets: Romeo Doubs $5,000 DK / $6,200 FD (DET 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
DET DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: Josh Reynolds $3,500 DK / $5,500 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DET, average score 25-23 DET, average margin of victory 11 points. DET has won four straight meetings, including a 34-20 victory in Week 4. The last time GB won a game in this rivalry with someone other than Aaron Rodgers under center was Week 17 of the 2011 season, when Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six TDs (topping Matthew Stafford's 520 yards and five TDs) in a 45-41 victory
Key stat: DET is seventh in net yards per play at 0.74; GB is 12th at 0.12

The Scoop: Dillon leads the GB backfield with 40 yards. Love throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Doubs and Christian Watson. Montgomery thunders for 100 yards and a TD, while Gibbs adds 70 combined yards and a score. Goff throws for 340 yards and two touchdowns, finding St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Williams. Lions 31-17

Washington (+11) at Dallas, o/u 48.5 – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Kudos to Ron Rivera for playing the long game and doing his best to prevent the Giants from getting their hands on one of the elite QB prospects in the 2024 draft. The Commanders are 4-5 against the rest of the league, but have somehow been outscored 45-26 in their two losses to the team with the worst point differential in the league. That's impressively inept. Washington's dropped four of their last five, and if you squint just right, Sam Howell has looked like the second coming of Kirk Cousins. Over that five-game stretch he's got a 65.8 percent completion rate and has averaged over 300 passing yards a game, but his 6.7 YPA and 9:6 TD:INT look a lot less like a burgeoning franchise QB. Still, he's what they've got. Rookie running back Chris Rodriguez got his first chance to shine last week and did well until a third-quarter fumble landed him in Rivera's doghouse, because that trick always works. Brian Robinson has also turned himself into a passing-down asset, posting an eye-popping 13-111-0 receiving line on 15 targets over the last couple games, and given that the Commanders' offensive linemen continues to olé their way through the season – Howell's been sacked at least four times in seven straight games – dump-offs and screens to the team's best blocking RB will probably remain a big part of the game plan.

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, yadda yadda yadda. Let's really talk about the Cowboys' defense for a minute. DC Dan Quinn's unit has been a fantasy cheat code – the Colts and Panthers are tied for second in the league with three DST touchdowns this season, but DaRon Bland has four pick-sixes on his own, tying the NFL record with seven games left on the schedule. The Dallas roster as a whole has six DST TDs, plus a safety too because why not. They're tied for eighth in total takeaways and tied for sixth in sacks, and Micah Parsons and company haven't had a chance to go after Howell yet. The Cowboys defense is even first in the league in missed tackles with only 33 – the Panthers are last with 90. As this defense goes, so goes the team. Prescott's resurgence since the team's Week 7 bye has been impressive, but the 'Boys are 0-3 this year when they give up more than 20 points, and this is their last second-division opponent before they head into a stretch of five games (Seattle, Philly, Buffalo, Miami and Detroit) that will determine whether they are a true Super Bowl threat, or just a team that runs up the score on lesser squads.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (questionable, toe)
DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

WAS DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Prescott $6,800 DK / $8,500 FD (WAS 32nd in passing DVOA), Lamb $8,700 DK / $9,200 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Cowboys DST $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (WAS t-31st in giveaways, 31st in sacks allowed)

WAS DFS fades: Curtis Samuel $3,600 DK / $5,600 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR3)
DAL DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DAL, average score 26-22 DAL, average margin of victory 18 points. Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 15 points or more
Key stat: WAS is 19th in third-down conversions at 37.3 percent; DAL is second in third-down defense at 32.8 percent

The Scoop: Robinson pieces together 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Howell throws for 200 yards and a score to Logan Thomas but gets sacked six times and throws two INTs, and Parsons returns a sack-fumble to the house. Tony Pollard dashes for 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 330 yards and four TDs, two to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson. Cowboys 42-17

San Francisco at Seattle (+7), o/u 43 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The 49ers are back, winning two straight games by a combined score of 61-17 coming out of their bye and it's like that little October swoon never happened. If you believe in curses and that sort of thing, I can't help but notice that the three teams to beat San Francisco before Halloween – Cleveland, Minnesota and Cincinnati – have all subsequently seen their starting QBs suffer season-ending injuries (although in the case of the Browns, it was PJ Walker under center for the win over the Niners, not Deshaun Watson.) Just a word of warning to any other teams that might be thinking about getting frisky against them... anyway, Brock Purdy has a 6:0 TD:INT and absurd 12.3 YPA in those two wins, so I think it's safe to say whatever was wrong with the offense during the losing streak has been fixed. Purdy's 9.7 YPA on the year leads the NFL, as does his performance in a bunch of other metrics, and it's probably time to start taking him seriously as an MVP candidate, even if voters probably won't because of the talent surrounding him. The defense did lose safety Talanoa Hufanga last week, but 2023 third-round pick Ji'Ayir Brown immediately stepped in and grabbed an INT, so the unit probably won't miss a beat.

The Seahawks picked the wrong time to have a short week. They're only a game back of the Niners in the NFC West, but only because they gave away a win against the Rams thanks to a Jason Myers missed field goal. Both Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker left the contest with injuries, and while Geno was able to return and lead what should have been the game-winning drive, he now has a big bullseye on his elbow for Nick Bosa and Chase Young. Walker's injury, however, got called "legit" by Pete Carroll, which translates as "pretty serious" in English. That puts 2023 second-round pick Zach Charbonnet in the lead role in the Seattle backfield, which could work out well for the team as he has also looked legit (but in the good way) in his limited touches so far in the NFL. The 'Hawks probably don't have the horses to keep up in this one, but if Charbonnet shows out, they might be able to keep it close and give Myers a shot at redemption.

The Skinny

SF injuries: S Hufanga (IR, knee)
SEA injuries: QB Smith (questionable, elbow), RB Walker (doubtful, oblique)

SF DFS targets: Brandon Aiyuk $7,000 DK / $7,800 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
SEA DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: Tyler Lockett $6,000 DK / $6,600 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-5 SEA, average score 25-25 (25.3-25 SEA), average margin of victory 10 points. SF has won three straight meetings, including a 41-23 rout in last season's wild-card round 
Key stat: SF is t-6th in red-zone conversions at 60.0 percent (24-for-40); SEA is 28th in red-zone defense (17-for-27)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Christian McCaffrey pops for 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 340 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting George Kittle and Aiyuk while Deebo Samuel tops 100 yards. Charbonnet gains 80 combined yards and a TD. Smith throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 49ers 31-20

BLACK FRIDAY

Miami at N.Y. Jets (+10), o/u 40.5 – Friday, 3 p.m. EST

I guess it's time to ask what's wrong with the Dolphins' offense. It's one thing to be held to less than 20 points and 300 yards of offense by talented defenses like Philly's or KC's – I mean, those two did just meet in the Super Bowl last season – but when a rag-tag bunch of plucky misfits like the Raiders also gives you trouble, something's amiss. The one thing that stands out about the losses to last year's conference champs is that they weren't beaten deep, as Tua Tagovailoa managed only three completions of 20-plus yards and zero of 40-plus in those two games. Over the last four contests, Tua's managed only a 7.1 YPA, a mark he bettered by at least a yard in each of his first six starts of the campaign. Tyreek Hill's been getting his; it's the rest of Tagovailoa's supporting cast that's slowed down, at least through the air. It's possible that secondaries have just taken an approach to playing Miami akin to a basketball team facing a squad with one lone superstar – you know that guy is going to go off, so you contain him as best you can and make sure none of his teammates beat you. DC Vic Fangio's defense has found its form though, holding five of the last six opponents to 21 points or less and under 300 total yards, and Jalen Ramsey says he hasn't even shaken off all the rust yet despite snagging three INTs in three games. It's entirely possible the track-meet team we saw to begin the season will have morphed into something very different by Christmas.

On behalf of the fantasy community, I'd like to thank the Jets for cutting loose one of their Michael Carters, thus reducing the chances of getting them mixed up. Gang Green has done a lot of housecleaning lately, with Zach Wilson squandering his last chance to prove himself a capable NFL quarterback last week and getting demoted to emergency third-string QB duty, at least for this one. In his place? Tim Boyle, a guy who's only in New York because he was in Green Bay for the first two years of Nathaniel Hackett's tenure there as OC. Boyle is not good (career QB rating: 50.9), and not a prospect, but the bar is pretty low right now to be any kind of improvement on Wilson. I suspect we're going to see Trevor Siemian, elevated off the practice squad to be Boyle's backup, getting starts in early December, but with the Jets at 4-6, the window is rapidly closing on there being any point to Aaron Rodgers providing the franchise with a Christmas miracle. (Which I suspect was part of the calculation when he began teasing a return next month, but that's neither here nor there.) You'd think Hackett would be under fire here too for the team's abysmal offensive performance – this is a unit that hasn't recorded 20 first downs in any game this season, topping out at 18, when the league average is 19.4 per game – since it's not like his last coaching stint prior to joining the Jets went particularly well either. I guess with the franchise tied to Rodgers' contract for a couple more years after this one though, they're also tied to whoever he wants as his coordinator. In the meantime, the defense is on the verge of cracking, and you can hardly blame them. The 32 points the Jets gave up to the Bills last week was not only the most they'd allowed all year, it was more than the offense has managed in the last three games combined.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, ankle), RB De'Von Achane (questionable, knee), WR Hill (questionable, hand)
NYJ injuries: QB Rodgers (IR, Achilles)

MIA DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: Tyler Conklin $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD and Jeremy Ruckert $2,500 DK / $4,300 FD (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

MIA DFS fades: Jaylen Waddle $7,500 DK / $7,000 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR2)
NYJ DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 MIA, average score 21-15 MIA, average margin of victory 11 points. MIA has won five of the last six meetings, with the lone NYJ victory being a 40-17 rout in Week 5 of last season, when Skylar Thompson threw for 166 yards and zero TDs while committing two turnovers
Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 73.5 percent (25-for-34); NYJ are fifth in red-zone defense at 41.4 percent (12-for-29)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 90 yards and a TD, while Achane adds 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 270 yards and two more scores, one each to Hill and River Cracraft. Breece Hall grinds out 60 yards and a TD. Boyle throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does find Garrett Wilson for a touchdown. Dolphins 31-14

Last week's record: 8-6, 7-6-1 ATS, 7-7 o/u
2023 record: 95-69, 78-81-5 ATS, 87-74-3 o/u