NFL Expert Picks: Week 14 Monday Night Football Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders

NFL Expert Picks: Week 14 Monday Night Football Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 15

The Atlanta Falcons (6-7) travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders (2-11) in an inter-conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Falcons are 2nd in the NFC South, while the Raiders sit 4th in the AFC West.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds

Falcons -5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110) / Raiders +5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

Falcons ML (BetRivers -235) / Raiders ML (FanDuel +210)

Total OVER 44.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook -121) / UNDER 45.0 (BetMGM -120) 

The Falcons opened as 1.0 point road favorites in Week 1, but a lot has changed since then on the Raiders side. The line has moved 4.5 points in favor of the Falcons as the Raiders have lost 9 in a row. It moved to -3.0, -4.5, and then as high as -5.5 on the news that Maxx Crosby will miss the game. The total opened 45.5 and it dropped to 41.5 on 12/8, but it then steadily climbed to 45.5. 

The majority of the bets (68%) have come in on the Falcons, and the handle (69%) has also come in on the Falcons which reflects that the "sharp" money has landed on Atlanta. There is a 1% difference on bets versus handle.

The total has money on the Under at 53% of total bets, and 59% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Falcons have received 92% of the bets and 87% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Falcons - None 

Raiders - QB Aidan O'Connell (Q), QB Gardner Minshew (O), RB Zamir White (O), DE Maxx Crosby (O)

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Falcons vs. Raiders Betting Picks 

The Falcons have lost 4 in a row and the Raiders have lost 9 in row, so your guess is as good as mine who will win this game. I will not be laying points on the road that is for sure. 

The situation for the Falcons as road favorites of 4 or more is rare. It happened against the Panthers this year, but that's it since November 2018. They are 7-3 SU but 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites of 4 or more points.

The Raiders are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games as underdogs of 4 or more points with the Over 4-1. The last 2 Raiders games have gone Under, but the Over was 6-1 in the prior 7 games. The Falcons are 5-2 to the Under in their last 7 games.

Falcons vs. Raiders Best Bet: Under 45.0 (BetMGM -120)

Secondary Bet: Raiders +5.5 (If O'Connell plays)  (DraftKings Sportsbook -110)

Falcons vs. Raiders Prediction

Good luck trying to predict the outcome in this game, as both teams look headed nowhere. But the Falcons do remain in playoff contention (30 percent) and have that as motivation. With Maxx Crosby out, the Raiders defense will not be very strong, but neither teams' offense is very good either. Look for a close game with the home dog getting the cover.

Falcons 23, Raiders 19

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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