NFL Game Previews: Week 17 Matchups

Miami (+3.5) at Buffalo, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It feels like there are more Week 17 games than usual with playoff implications. This ain't one of them, although the Dolphins at least might be playing for Adam Gase's job, and whatever sort of moral victory that comes along with a .500 season. I'll leave it to you to decide whether that's good news for their chances of winning here or not. Ryan Tannehill doesn't look 100 percent again, throwing for only 254 yards and a 1:1 TD:INT over his last two games combined, but Miami doesn't exactly have a young QB behind him they might want to take a look at instead. Kalen Ballage might see increased touches if Gase does decide to look ahead to 2019, but you could have said the same thing last week and the rookie RB saw his workload cut in half from the previous week. Shrug emoji. The Bills also have some turmoil in their backfield, with LeSean McCoy getting a purely cosmetic "benching" against the Patriots, but Josh Allen's been the team's leading rusher over the last five weeks anyway. Shady and coach Sean McDermott have apparently settled whatever the issue was, so the 30-year-old could see plenty of carries in what might be his final game in a Buffalo uniform.

The Skinny:
•MIA injuries: LB Kiko Alonso (questionable, knee); CB Xavien Howard (questionable, knee)
•BUF injuries: none
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS tournament plays: Dolphins DST (tied for third in takeaways, BUF 31st in points scored, 31st in giveaways)
•BUF DFS tournament plays: McCoy (MIA 31st in rushing yars allowed)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BUF, average score 25-18 BUF, average margin of victory 11 points. The last five meetings have all been decided by a single score.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 20s, 9-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Ballage leads the Dolphins backfield with 60 yards, but Kenyan Drake scores a TD. Tannehill throws for less than 200 yards but hits DeVante Parker for a score. McCoy piles up 90 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Allen throws for less than 200 yards and runs for 50, tossing a second TD to Zay Jones. Bills, 17-14

Atlanta (+1.5) at Tampa Bay, 51.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Falcons have rebounded a bit, winning two straight after a five-game slide that wrecked their playoff chances, so they at least could enter the offseason with a bit of optimism with a win here. Julio Jones isn't 100 percent, but it doesn't seem to matter – he's found the end zone four times in the last three games and has seven TDs in his last eight, as (soon to be ex-?) offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian finally figured out that the most physically talented receiver in the NFL might actually be an effective red-zone option. (Seriously, Julio went seven straight games in the first half without seeing a single target inside the 20. If I owned the team I wouldn't have just fired Sarkisian, I'd have sued him to try and recoup some of the salary he stole.) The Bucs are headed in the opposite direction, losing three straight (albeit to playoff-caliber teams), and another defeat could mean Dirk Koetter hits the unemployment line after consecutive 5-11 campaigns. Heck, even a win could still see him get the sack. I've ranted enough about Koetter's infatuation with Peyton Barber at the expense of Ronald Jones II – the rookie hasn't seen a carry in the last three games – but Jameis Winston's stagnation is another black mark on the coach's ledger. Koetter suggested Ryan Griffin, who has yet to see an NFL snap since going undrafted in 2014, could see some action at QB in this one. Sure, why not.

The Skinny:
•ATL injuries: none
•TB injuries: WR DeSean Jackson (doubtful, Achilles); DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, knee)
•ATL DFS chalk: Matt Ryan (TB 32nd in QB rating against, tied for 28th in passing TDs allowed)
•TB DFS chalk: none
•ATL DFS tournament plays: Coleman / Brian Hill (TB tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed), Calvin Ridley (TB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Austin Hooper (TB 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•TB DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 ATL, average score 31-25 ATL, average margin of victory 11 points. ATL has won four straight meetings.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Brian Hill leads the Falcons backfield with 100 yards and a TD. Ryan throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Julio and Ridley. Barber manages 50 yards but does score. Winston throws for 230 yards and a TD to Mike Evans, but gets picked off twice before handing the reins to Griffin. Falcons, 30-17

Dallas (+6) at NY Giants, 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Dallas is locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC, so there's not much more than pride at stake here. Coach Jason Garrett does plan on running with his starters to begin the game, but how long they remain in the lineup is another question, and even the players hunting for milestones aren't guaranteed a full workload – Ezekiel Elliott, for instance, needs 66 rushing yards for 1,500 on the season, but he's basically got his second rushing title in three years already sewn up. The Giants, meanwhile, and in the morass of five-win teams who could still find their ay into a top-five pick in the 2019 draft, but it's impossible to imagine them rolling over for the hated Cowboys. There's also the distinct possibility that this is Eli Manning's last game for the franchise. He hasn't given any sign he's thinking about retirement, but he's 37 and has only one year remaining on his current deal, so the club could save a whopping $17 million in cap space if they just release him. They could always try to wring one more year out of Eli – his 7.5 YPA this season is his best mark since 2011 – or keep him around to mentor a young QB if they can find one, but financial considerations have a way of trumping sentimentality in the NFL.

The Skinny:
•DAL injuries: none
•NYG injuries: WR Odell Beckham (out, quad); LB Alec Ogletree (out, concussion)
•DAL DFS chalk: Amari Cooper (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Cole Beasley (NYG 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DAL, average score 24-19 DAL, average margin of victory seven points. Only three of the last 11 meetings have been decided by double-digit points, but all three were DAL victories, including two of the last three.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott gains 80 yards before checking out of the game. Dak Prescott throws for less than 200 yards but runs for a score before getting replaced by Cooper Rush, who tosses a TD to Noah Brown. Saquon Barkley finishes his rookie campaign on a high note, piling up 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Eli throws for 250 yards and a TD to Evan Engram, while Corey Coleman returns a kickoff to the house. Giants, 24-17

Carolina (+7.5) at New Orleans, 44.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Poor Taylor Heinicke. His tenure as the starting quarterback for the Panthers lasted all of one start, during which he tossed three INTs and hyper-extended his non-throwing elbow to end his season. Carolina will now have to turn to Kyle Allen, an undrafted rookie who basically hasn't done anything noteworthy since he was a college freshman with Texas A&M, to try and end their seven-game losing streak. Eep. Allen might not even have Christian McCaffrey to lean on in a meaningless game, although CMac is only 75 scrimmage yards shy of 2,000 on the season, if that enters into the coaching staff's thinking on the matter. The Saints, with the No. 1 seed in the NFC safely tucked in their back pocket, have already announced that Drew Brees will cede playing time to Teddy Bridgewater, and the 39-year-old MVP candidate might even sit this one out entirely. Other key players like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas could also see reduced workloads, although given how Carolina has been playing in the second half, New Orleans fielding their junior varsity squad might still be more than enough.

The Skinny:
•CAR injuries: QB Can Newton (out, shoulder); QB Heinicke (IR, elbow)
•NO injuries: none
•CAR DFS chalk: McCaffrey (NO 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS tournament plays: D.J. Moore (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Devin Funchess (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Bridgewater (CAR 28th in QB rating against, tied for 28th in passing TDs allowed), Ted Ginn (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Ben Watson (CAR 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-5 NO including last season's 31-26 NO win in the wild card round, average score 26-23 NO, average margin of victory 10 points. NO has won four straight meetings and five of the last six.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: McCaffrey gets his 75 combined yards before sitting down. Allen has a rough NFL debut, throwing for less than 200 yards and getting picked off twice, one of which Marshon Lattimore returns for a score. Former Lion back Dwayne Washington leads the Saints backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Bridgewater is solid enough, throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown to Ginn. Saints, 27-6

NY Jets (+13.5) at New England, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Don't look now, but Sam Darnold has started to look like a guy who was considered a plausible first overall pick in the 2018 draft. After last week's futile torching of the Packers' secondary, the rookie QB has a 6:1 TD:INT and a 7.9 YPA over his last three games despite still dealing with the foot injury that cost him the three previous contests. In fact, the Jets quietly have some interesting pieces to build around, as Robby Anderson and rookie tight end Chris Herndon have shown good chemistry with Darnold while Jamal Adams has emerged as a force at safety. The roster still needs a lot of help, but another high draft slot in 2019 should bring in plenty of talent. The Patriots can still wriggle into the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they'd need both the Chiefs and Chargers to lose in late games for that path to remain open. A loss here, however, and they could fall back as far as No. 3 in the AFC, losing out on a first-round bye, so don't look for them to go easy on a division rival they've had little trouble with in recent years. Tom Brady is still trying to figure out how to generate big plays through the air without Josh Gordon, but the two-headed backfield with Sony Michel and James White still gives the offense a strong foundation, and the defense remains quietly impressive – it's held the opposition to 17 points or less in six of the last eight games.

The Skinny:
•NYJ injuries: WR Quincy Enunwa (out, ankle)
•NE injuries: WR Gordon (out, personal); WR Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, knee)
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 NE, average score 25-17 NE, average margin of victory 10 points. NE has won five straight meetings, and three of the last four by 14 points or more.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Elijah McGuire manages 60 combined yards, while Trenton Cannon grab a receiving TD. Darnold throws for 240 yards and a second score to Anderson. Michel bangs out a season-high 140 yards and two touchdowns, reaching 1,000 yards on the season, while White adds 70 combined yards. Brady throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. Patriots, 31-17

Jacksonville (+7) at Houston, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: It's nail-biting time in Houston. The Texans' loss to Nick Foles last week despite Deshaun Watson's heroics suddenly has them probably missing out on a desperately needed first-round bye, unless they win here and the Pats get Darnolded. Heck, if the Texans lose to the Jags, they tumble all the way down to the No. 6 seed, as they'd lose a tiebreaker to whoever wins the Colts-Titans clash. Of course, that bleak scenario would require Jacksonville to be competitive, something the team's rarely been this season. The Jags have lost nine of their last 11 games and scored a combined 23 points in the two wins. The defense does occasionally return to its 2017 form, but it doesn't take much to put them on tilt, and the offense isn't capable of picking up the slack regardless of who's under center. The Texans have plenty of banged-up players they'd love to rest, starting with DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt, but they'd need to jump out to a huge lead in the first half to even consider that option here given what's at stake for them.

The Skinny:
•JAC injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (doubtful, ankle); RB Carlos Hyde (questionable, knee); K Josh Lambo (IR, groin)
•HOU injuries: WR Demaryius Thomas (IR, Achilles); WR Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring)
•JAC DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS tournament plays: Jaguars DST (fifth in points allowed, HOU first in sacks allowed)
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Texans DST (tied for third in takeaways, JAC 30th in points scored, tied for 29th in sacks allowed)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 HOU, average score 20-20, average margin of victory 13 points. The last three meetings have been decided by 13 points or more.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: T.J. Yeldon leads the Jags backfield with 60 combined yards. Blake Bortles throws for less than 200 yards. Lamar Miller picks up 60 yards and a TD. Watson throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Hopkins while running in a score of his own. Texans, 24-9

Detroit (+8) at Green Bay, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Matt Patricia's first season at the helm in Detroit is coming to a rough end. The Lions have won just two of their last nine games, and the two victories came against teams that have even bigger problems than they do in the Panthers and Cards. A team built around its passing game has been completely unable to move the ball through the air, as a porous offensive line, a lack of reliable targets and the disappearance of what running game it had have left Matthew Stafford standing there awkwardly like a guy at a party who just realized all his friends bailed and didn't tell him. The Packers are already doomed to their second straight sub-.500 season after a run of eight straight playoff appearances, in case anyone is still grumbling about Mike McCarthy's dismissal. Last week's comeback win in OT showed that Aaron Rodgers is still capable of some magic, but with nothing on the line here, he could find himself working without his top receiver in Davante Adams and instead tossing passes to rookies and unproven depth options – Adams may have caught the winning strike from Rodgers, but it was Jake Kumerow (???) who caught the TD that got the comeback started.

The Skinny:
•DET injuries: WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, chest); RB LeGarrette Blount (questionable, knee)
•GB injuries: WR Davante Adams (questionable, knee); TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, knee); WR Randall Cobb (questionable, concussion); WR Equanimeous St. Brown (questionable, concussion)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•GB DFS chalk: Rodgers (DET 31st in QB rating against), Adams (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
•DET DFS tournament plays: Theo Riddick (GB 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•GB DFS tournament plays: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DET 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Cobb (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Graham (DET 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DET, average score 25-21 DET, average margin of victory 12 points. DET has won three straight meetings.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 20s, 16-17 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Riddick leads the Lions backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Zach Zenner bangs out 50 yards. Stafford throws for under 200 yards. Jamaal Williams hits for 100 combined yards and scores for the third straight game. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to MVS and Lance Kendricks. Packers, 27-10

Philadelphia at Washington (+6.5), 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Eagles are still alive in the playoff chase, but they need to win and have the Vikings lose to the Bears to pull it off, a path which certainly seems at least plausible. The only reason they still have a shot at a postseason spot at all is because Nick Foles is at it again. He's thrown for 741 yards with a 4:2 TD:INT, a 73.8 percent completion rate and a 9.3 YPA in two games since Carson Wentz got shut down, and now he gets to face a secondary that got its offseason housecleaning started early by dumping D.J. Swearinger to the curb after he dared publicly criticize his coordinator, because Washington's been such an unimpeachable defensive juggernaut this year. Of course the Eagles have plenty of issues on the back end themselves, but Josh Johnson – who has yet to throw for 200 yards in his three starts, and hasn't reached a 7.0 YPA in his last two – probably isn't the guy to exploit that situation. Washington's got a .500 record on the line, and a chance to play spoiler, but the question is whether they have the horses to pull it off, especially against a team that knows what they're capable of.

The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: QB Wentz (out, back)
•WAS injuries: TE Vernon Davis (doubtful, concussion); WR Josh Doctson (questionable, illness); WR Maurice Harris (out, concussion)
•PHI DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•PHI DFS tournament plays: none
•WAS DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 PHI, average score 27-25 PHI, average margin of victory eight points. PHI has won three straight meetings, all by double digits, after losing five straight.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Josh Adams gains 50 yards, while Darren Sproles adds 50 combined yards. Foles throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Golden Tate and Alshon Jeffery. Adrian Peterson only manages 40 yards, but Chris Thompson steps up with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD. Johnson throws for less than 200 yards again but hits Michael Floyd for a second passing score and runs in another. Washington, 24-20

L.A. Chargers at Denver (+6.5), 41.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: With the Chiefs playing Oakland in their finale, the Bolts will probably have to content themselves with the No. 5 seed in the AFC despite potentially being tied for the best record in the conference. D'oh. Still, if they take care of business here and Kansas City lays an egg, the Chargers could find themselves with the home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Melvin Gordon didn't impress in his return from a knnee injury, and Philip Rivers picked a bad time last week to have his worst game of the season, but facing the Ravens can do that to anyone. The Broncos' defense presents a much less daunting challenge, although they're not bad. The real issue in Denver is the offense. Phillip Lindsay's wrist injury put an unexpectedly early end to his breakout rookie campaign, leaving the backfield in the hands of Royce Freeman – you know, the guy who was supposed to have a breakout rookie year – and Devontae Booker. No matter how well that duo does, though, Case Keenum's awful recent play makes any contribution from the running game almost moot. Over the last six games, the QB has a sub-60 percent completion rate and a 5.8 YPA while averaging less than 200 yards a game. They haven't scored more than 24 points since Week 7 and have averaged less than 15 a game in losing three straight to the likes of the Raiders and Niners. Maybe they find a way to end the year on a high note with an upset, but more likely they get Vance Joseph fired and head into the draft looking for a new quarterback.

The Skinny:
•LAC injuries: none
•DEN injuries: RB Lindsay (IR, wrist)
•LAC DFS chalk: none
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•DEN DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-3 DEN including a 24-17 DEN win in the Divisional Round of the 2013 playoffs, average score 22-19 DEN, average margin of victory nine points. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single score.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gordon gallops for 130 combined yards and a TD, while Austin Ekeler adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Mike Williams. Booker leads the Broncos backfield with 80 combined yards, while Freeman adds 70 yards and a touchdown. Keenum throws for 220 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton. Chargers, 27-17

Oakland (+13.5) at Kansas City, 54.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: John Gruden's first year at the helm for the Raiders hasn't exactly been a success, especially when you consider that the two most prominent players he chased out of town wound up grabbing division titles with their new squads, but at least the team is going down fighting by winning two of their last three, including an upset of the Steelers that, in retrospect, may have spelled the end for Pittsburgh's playoff chances. Derek Carr hasn't thrown an interception in his last 325 pass attempts, a streak of 10-plus games, and while the rest of his numbers during that time aren't exactly Pro Bowl material (he's got a 7.0 YPA and only 12 TDs), he's played well enough to perhaps knock "find a franchise QB" down a few spots on Gruden's offseason shopping list. The Raiders also won't be facing a squad coasting to the finish line. A win here and the Chiefs lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They haven't quite been playing like Super Bowl favorites, though, losing two straight heartbreakers to playoff teams to even put them in a position where they have something to play for in Week 17. Despite the stumbles, Patrick Mahomes has been putting the finishing touches on a possible MVP campaig, posting an 11:1 TD:INT over the last four games – including four touchdowns the last time Kansas City faced Oakland. The Raiders have mostly been steamrolled by the Chiefs during the Andy Reid era, and they've got all the incentive in the world to plow them under again.

The Skinny:
•OAK injuries: none
•KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (out, foot); RB Spencer Ware (questionable, hamstring); S Eric Berry (questionable, foot)
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•KC DFS chalk: Mahomes (OAK 27th in QB rating against, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Travis Kelce (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: Doug Martin (KC 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), Jared Cook (KC 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
•KC DFS tournament plays: Chiefs DST (second in sacks, OAK 28th in points scored, 28th in sacks allowed), Ware / Damien Williams (OAK 30th in rushing yards allowed), Chris Conley (OAK 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 KC, average score 30-19 KC, average margin of victory 12 points.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, 11-12 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Martin grinds out 70 yards, while Jalen Richard adds 70 combined yards and a receiving score. Carr's INT streak ends in spectacular fashion when Berry returns one for a TD, but he still throws for 300 yards and two more touchdowns to Cook and Seth Roberts. Damien Williams piles up 120 combined yards and a score. Mahomes lights it up for 370 yards and five TDs, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and Conley, Demarcus Robinson and Kelvin Benjamin once each, while Tyreek Hill also hauls in over 100 yards. Chiefs, 52-24

Chicago (+5) at Minnesota, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: While Chicago has a division title locked up, the team still has something to play for. Win No. 12 for the Bears, combined with a loss by the sagging Rams, and the new Monsters of the Midway come away with a first-round bye. The Vikings, on the other hand, secure the final wild-card spot in the NFC (and thus a rematch back in Chicago next week) with a win, while a loss and an Eagles victory boots them out of the postseason entirely. In other words, emotions could be running high in this one, especially if Minnesota players don't like what they're seeing on the scoreboards in the second half. Chicago's defense remains the best in the conference if not the entire league, holding their last three opponents (including the Rams and Packers) to a combined 32 points. The offense hasn't been exactly stellar during that three-game winning streak, though – the team's scored only 53 points themselves during that stretch. Mitchell Trubisky only has a 4:3 TD:INT in those wins, but at least he's been efficient, topping an 8.0 YPA in each of the last two. An elite defense, solid running game and just enough passing is a formula that's won more than one Super Bowl in the past. The Vikes have QB questions of their own. Kirk Cousins has posted good numbers overall, but the team is a brutal 0-5 on the year against teams that already have a playoff spot locked up, and even if he isn't necessary the one at fault for those losses (he torched the Rams for 422 yards and a 3:0 TD:INT in a 38-31 road loss back in Week 4, for instance), it's not a good look for a guy who left Washington with a reputation for not being able to win the big one, or at least, that was the front office's excuse for not giving him a long-term deal. A victory here would make all that ancient history, though.

The Skinny:
•CHI injuries: WR Allen Robinson (doubtful, ribs); S Eddie Jackson (doubtful, ankle)
•MIN injuries: LB Eric Kendricks (out, hamstring)
•CHI DFS chalk: none
•MIN DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Bears DST (third in points allowed, fifth in sacks, first in takeaways)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 MIN, average score 23-18 MIN, average margin of victory nine points.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Tarik Cohen leads the Bears backfield with 100 combined yards and a TD, while Jordan Howard adds 60 yards. Trubisky throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Adam Shaheen while running in a score of his own. Dalvin Cook puts together 70 combined yards. Cousins throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Adam Thielen and Ameer Abdullah. Bears 24-17

Cleveland (+6) at Baltimore, 41.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Browns have won three straight games and five of six, albeit mainly against teams whose postseason dreams ended a while ago, but their nigh-impossible path to the postseason closed up on them last week even so. Had the team sacked Hue Jackson and/or committed to Baker Mayfield sooner, it might have been a different story. Mayfield's posted a 13:1 TD:INT in the five wins, and he's rung up a robust 18:5 TD:INT and 8.5 YPA overall since Freddie Kitchens took over the play-calling in Cleveland. He's now just two TDs short of tying the rookie record of 26, held by Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson, and while Baltimore is just about the worst opponent to try and do that against, you know Mayfield must be aware of how close to history he is. The Ravens will be very, very motivated to not let that happen, though, and not just because they're looking to avenge a 12-9 overtime loss in Week 5 at Mayfield's hands. They probably need a win to clinch the AFC North, and they could even creep as high as the No. 3 seed if the Titans come out on top in the South. It's a credit to John Harbaugh that the switch at QB from old-school pocket passer Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson, who is anything but, has gone as smoothly as it has. Another huge rushing performance from Jackson could see him finish with one of the top 10 rushing seasons by a quarterback in NFL history (he's 101 yards back of Cam Newton's 2011 campaign), and he's already in the 20th spot – shocking numbers when you consider that he's only started six games.

The Skinny:
•CLE injuries: none
•BAL injuries: WR John Brown (questionable, hamstring)
•CLE DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•CLE DFS tournament plays: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Gus Edwards (CLE tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 BAL, average score 23-16 BAL, average margin of victory nine points. BAL had won five straight before a 12-9 CLE win in Week 5.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Nick Chubb scrapes together 50 yards. Mayfield puts his name in the record books, throwing for 260 yards and three TDs, two to David Njoku and one to Jarvis Landry. Edwards plows ahead for 80 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for a career-high 230 yards and a TD to Ty Montgomery while running for 60 yards and a score of his own, and he puts together a division-winning field-goal drive in the final minutes. Ravens, 24-21

San Francisco (+10) at L.A. Rams, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Despite their recent struggles, all the Rams need to do to lock up a first-round bye is beat the Niners. Seems easy, right? San Francisco got crushed 39-10 back in Week 7 in their first meeting, and they haven't exactly gotten healthier since then. Nonetheless, two of their four wins on the season have come in December, including one against a playoff team (the Seahawks), and they came within one score of toppling the Bears, too. Nick Mullens continues to be entirely adequate at QB for the Niners, and projecting his current numbers over 15 games would have him seventh in the league in passing yards – not bad for a guy who's had only one reliable target in George Kittle. Whatever else you might say about Kyle Shanahan as a head coach, the dude knows how to get the most out of a passing game. The same's been said about Sean McVay, but Jared Goff and the Rams' aerial attack just hasn't seemed quite the same since that ridiculous game against the Chiefs, almost like they're suffering from the football equivalent of a Home Run Derby hangover in baseball. (Not that there's any real statistical evidence such a thing exists – and yes, I've looked. Despite the occasional "second-half slump," or at least the appearance of one, from a participant in the Derby, what's really happening is ... oh, I'm getting sidetracked. It's been a long season.) The running game has surprisingly not suffered even with Todd Gurley getting a chance to rest his sore knee before the playoffs, however, as Broncos and Panthers castoff C.J. Anderson walked in off the street and ripped apart the Cards' front seven last week. Sure, it's only the Cards, and the Niners' run defense is better, but Gurley still found the end zone three times against them last time out. Anderson could be headed for another productive game as he looks to salvage his career – perhaps the best motivator of all.

The Skinny:
•SF injuries: RB Matt Breida (out, ankle); WR Marquise Goodwin (out, calf); WR Dante Pettis (out, knee)
•LAR injuries: RB Gurley (out, knee)
•SF DFS chalk: none
•LAR DFS chalk: Goff (SF 30th in QB rating against, tied for 28th in passing TDs allowed), Robert Woods (SF 26th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•SF DFS tournament plays: Jeff Wilson (LAR 31st in YPC allowed)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Josh Reynolds (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 SF, average score 23-19 SF, average margin of victory 14 points. The last eight meetings have all been decided by 21 points or more (four times) or three points or less (four times).
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Wilson runs for 60 yards. Mullens throws for 280 yards and TDs to Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor. Anderson jets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 320 yards and three TDs, finding Woods (who tops 100 yards), Reynolds and Brandin Cooks. Rams, 34-17

Cincinnati (+14.5) at Pittsburgh, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: This has been a very one-sided rivalry in recent years, but the Bengals now have a golden opportunity to stick it to the Steelers, as Pittsburgh's end-of-year slide – they've lost four of their last five – has them on the verge of missing the playoffs entirely. Unfortunately, these Bengals are very different from the ones who looked like they might beat their division foe back in Week 6 until they forgot to cover Antonio Brown with the game on the line. Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and now Tyler Boyd are all on IR, leaving the passing game in tatters. In five games with Jeff Driskel under center, during which they're also 1-4, Cincy's averaging less than 20 points a game, and they have Joe Mixon and the Oakland defense to thank for most of it. Pittsburgh's issues are a lot less obvious. Ben Roethlisberger's been productive, tossing multiple TDs in four of the last five games. Jaylen Samuels was more than adequate filling in for James Conner. You can't even blame a tough schedule, since two of their recent losses were to non-playoff teams, including a Raiders squad that was the only one Driskel's managed to beat. I guess you could blame a defensive coordinator who doesn't even know who's healthy on the other team, but I prefer to think that Butler was just making a Stephen A. Smith joke.

The Skinny:
•CIN injuries: WR Boyd (IR, knee); LB Vontaze Burfict (out, concussion)
•PIT injuries: RB Conner (questionable, ankle); WR Brown (questionable, knee)
•CIN DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS chalk: Roethlisberger (CIN 29th in QB rating against, tied for 28th in passing TDs allowed), JuJu Smith-Schuster (CIN 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: C.J. Uzomah (PIT 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
•PIT DFS tournament plays: Conner / Samuels (CIN 29th in rushing yrds allowed, 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-2 PIT including an 18-16 PIT win in the wild card round of the 2015 playoffs, average score 25-18 PIT, average margin of victory nine points. PIT has won seven straight meetings, but but five of the last six have been decided by a single score.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon puts together 100 combined yards and a TD. Driskel throws for less than 200 yards but finds Uzomah for a score. Conner plays and gains 60 combined yards, but Samuels leads the Steelers backfield with 80 and a touchdown. Big Ben throws for 270 yards and TDs to JuJu and Vance McDonald. Steelers, 27-17

Arizona (+13.5) at Seattle, 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Arizona holds all the cards (sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to remove it) when it comes to the top pick in next year's draft, as all their competition have managed to produce improbable wins over the last few weeks to offset their own improbable win over the Packers in Week 13. Josh Rosen has gotten yanked from consecutive games, which tends to happen when Larry Fitzgerald generates more offense with his arm than you do, and the rookie has an 0:4 TD:INT over the last four games. That's ... not ideal. Jared Goff looks awful in his first year too, but offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich doesn't exactly seem like the next Sean McVay, so the rumor mill could be working overtime in regard to what the Cardinals do with that first overall pick in April. That, of course, assumes Leftwich is even back next year – since "popping" for a season-high 28 points in Leftwich's debut as coordinator, the Cards have scored more than 20 points only once in their last 10 games, and they still managed to lose that one. The Seahawks have a wild-card spot locked up, and barring a collapse will be opening the playoffs in Dallas next week – who they beat in Week 3, though that win was back in Seattle. Because they could in theory fall to No. 6 instead of No. 5, forcing them to play the Bears instead, Pete Carroll has some incentive to keep his studs in the game, at least until they have a lead big enough to coast on.

The Skinny:
•ARI injuries: none
•SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (questionable, knee)
•ARI DFS chalk: David Johnson (SEA 32nd in YPC allowed)
•SEA DFS chalk: Chris Carson (ARI 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: none
•SEA DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4-1 SEA, average score 24-17 SEA, average margin of victory 10 points. The last five meetings (2-2-1) have been decided by a single score.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson picks up 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Rosen throws for less than 200 yards yet again. Carson rumbles for 80 combined yards and a TD before giving way to Penny, who also scores. Russell Wilson throws for 210 yards and touchdowns to Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Seahawks, 31-10

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3), 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: At worst, the winner of this game claims the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but if the Texans lose earlier in the day, suddenly this one is for the AFC South crown. Oooh, drama! (There's also a scenario where the Steelers sneak into the final wild-card spot if Indy and Tennessee tie, but let's not go there until we have to.) The Colts have won three straight, two against playoff teams, and their elite offensive line continues to make life easier for Andrew Luck and Marlon Mack. Mack's scored four rushing TDs during that winning streak, and that's with Nyheim Hines vulturing one last week, while Luck has averaged more than 300 yards a game and has an 8.2 YPA despite being held in check by Dallas a couple of weeks ago. The Titans, however, have won four straight, and while Marcus Mariota's latest stinger might seem worrying, it's less of a big deal that it was earlier in the year now that the offense is being carried on the broad shoulders of Derrick Henry. Henry's been hammering those flaming thumbtacks into the end zone like a man possessed, scoring eight TDs while rushing for 532 yards with a 6.6 YPC during the winning streak. Mariota, on the other hand, hasn't thrown a TD pass in three games (although Blaine Gabbert tossed one in relief last week), so the battle lines seem pretty clear. If the Titans' ground game can generate some points and keep the Colts' offense off the field long enough, they might have a chance to not only avenge their earlier 38-10 loss in Indy back in Week 11, but to play some January football.

The Skinny:
•IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (questionable, ankle); TE Eric Ebron (questionable, concussion); WR Dontrelle Inman (questionable, shoulder)
•TEN injuries: QB Marcus Mariota (questionable, elbow)
•IND DFS chalk: none
•TEN DFS chalk: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: Inman (TEN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•TEN DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 IND, average score 29-21 IND, average margin of victory 11 points. Both TEN wins have come in the last three meetings.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mack totals 60 combined yards. Luck throws for 270 yards and TDs to Hilton and Inman. Henry thunders for 120 yards and a touchdown. Gabbert starts and throws for less than 200 yards, finding MyCole Pruitt for a TD, and a Harold Landry fumble return for a score proves to be the difference. Titans, 24-20

Last week's record: 11-5, 6-9-1 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 149-89-2, 103-127-10 ATS, 106-130-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS