NFL Game Previews: Packers-Vikings Matchup

Green Bay (+5.5) at Minnesota, 45.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Packers are a game ahead of the Vikings in the NFC North and heading into Week 16 hold the No. 2 seed, but tiebreakers give them a big edge in the battle for the division crown — even if they lose, they'd still need to lose next week in Detroit to cough it up. Matt LaFleur's offense continues to turn Aaron Rodgers into a game manager, and the future Hall of Famer has thrown multiple TDs only once in the last six games, although he hasn't been intercepted since Week 6. Fortunately, the other Aaron has helped pick up the slack, as Aaron Jones has rushed for six touchdowns during that stretch. The defense has also done their part — Green Bay's won three straight and four of the last five, and it's given up 16 points or less in all four wins. Despite being right there with the Pack in the standings, the Vikings might not have much to play for by Monday, as a Rams loss Saturday locks them into a playoff spot, and Sunday's results could make it impossible for them to climb out of the No. 6 seed without stealing the division title. They too have won four of their last five, but it's been the offense carrying the load — Minnesota's averaged 28.8 points in that five-game stretch, and they even scored 30 in the loss. Kirk Cousins has remained sharp, posting a 7.9 YPA, 73.1 percent completion rate and 9:2 TD:INT during those five games, and Adam Thielen has a couple more games to shake off the rust from his layoff. They may need Thielen to get back up to speed quickly, though. Both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are less than 100 percent healthy, and both backs could end up sitting, especially if the game becomes less meaningful as the weekend progresses.

The Skinny

GB injuries: TE Jimmy Graham (questionable, wrist), LB Blake Martinez (questionable, hand)

MIN injuries: RB Cook (questionable, chest), RB Mattison (questionable, ankle)

GB DFS targets: Davante Adams (MIN 23rd in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS targets: Mike Boone (GB 25th in rushing DVOA), Kyle Rudolph / Irv Smith Jr. (GB 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

GB DFS fades: Jones (MIN first in rushing TDs allowed, fourth in rushing DVOA), Graham (MIN first in DVOA vs. TE)

MIN DFS fades: Cousins (GB t-5th in passing TDs allowed), Stefon Diggs (GB second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: The two teams are remarkably close in ranking in many categories, but not third-down offense – MIN is ninth at 44.1 percent, while GB is t-22nd at 35.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 5-5-1, average score 22-19 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. MIN hadn't lost in four meetings (3-0-1) before GB's 21-16 victory in Week 2.

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Jones grinds out 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Adams and Geronimo Allison. Boone gets the start and runs for 70 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. Vikings, 27-20

Cincinnati (+1) at Miami, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bengals have the top pick in next year's draft almost locked up, and one more loss will do it, so congrats to a job well done, I guess. Joe Mixon at least isn't playing like a guy more worried about 2020. Since the team's bye, he's rushed for over 100 yards in three of six games, piling up 745 scrimmage yards and three TDs. Just to be sure, Cincy isn't going to bring A.J. Green back this season – who knows what might happen if they had a legit No. 1 RB *and* No.1 WR at the same time. The Dolphins could still come away with the second overall pick after dropping a game to the Giants someone had to win despite themselves. Ryan Fitzpatrick's chemistry with DeVante Parker has already earned the latter a contract extension, and might allow the former to keep his starting job in Miami to begin next season. Fitzmagic is also poised to become the answer to a very tricky trivia question down the road ("Name the two quarterbacks who led their teams in rushing in 2019?") if Patrick Laird or Myles Gaskin don't do something impressive this week. The Bengals' feeble run defense offers the right opponent to pop against, though.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Green (out, ankle), RG John Miller (doubtful, concussion)

MIA injuries: K Jason Sanders (questionable, illness)

CIN DFS chalk: Andy Dalton (MIA 29th in YPA allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA), Mixon (MIA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tyler Boyd (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIA DFS chalk: Fitzpatrick (CIN 31st in YPA allowed), Parker (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, 28th in DVOA against deep throws)

CIN DFS tournament plays: Giovani Bernard (see Mixon), Alex Erickson (MIA 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Bengals DST (MIA 29th in sack percentage allowed)

MIA DFS tournament plays: Laird / Gaskin (CIN 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Dolphins DST (CIN 32nd in points per game, 28th in giveaways)

Key stat: CIN is 31st in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 37.5 percent (15-for-40) of RZ possessions; MIA is 27th in red-zone defense at 62.3 percent (33-for-53)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 70s, 15-16 mph wind, 35-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop 

Mixon rumbles for 120 combined yards and a score. Dalton throws for 300 yards and TDs to Boyd and John Ross. Laird gains 80 yards and a touchdown, while Gaskin adds 60 yards and a receiving score. Fitzpatrick throws for 330 yards and two more TDs, finding Parker (who tops 100 yards) and Mike Gesicki. Dolphins 28-24 
 

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets (+3), 37.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Steelers missed a big chance to put some distance between themselves and the Titans in the wild-card race, but they still hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC for now. Mike Tomlin is sticking with Devlin Hodges under center, but another poor performance could force the coach's hand for Week 17's game in Baltimore, either by turning back to Mason Rudolph (which, frankly, no one seems to want) or even tossing up a real Hail Mary and giving Paxton Lynch a chance. Yes, Lynch is still in the NFL. That first-round pick pedigree goes a long way. Tomlin likely wants to give Hodges at least one shot with a full complement of weapons at his disposal – James Conner only got eight carries last week but looked good and should see his workload increase, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is set to take the field again for the first time since Week 11. The Jets are making a valiant effort to avoid a 10-loss season despite all the injuries they've had to deal with, but a closing schedule that has them facing two playoff contenders with something to play for could make it impossible. Sam Darnold is turning into a mini-Jameis Winston down the stretch, in that he only seems able to play one receiver productive at a time – after focusing primarily on Robby Anderson over the prior few games, he turned his attention to Jamison Crowder last week. That approach has gotten Darnold a 6:2 TD:INT over the last four contests, but he's completed less than 60 percent of his passes in three straight, and the Steelers' secondary is not the unit to you want to have to try and end that streak against.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: none

NYJ injuries: WR Anderson (questionable, illness), WR Demaryius Thomas (doubtful, hamstring), TE Ryan Griffin (IR, ankle), LT Kelvin Beachum (questionable, ankle), RG Tom Compton (doubtful, calf), S Jamal Adams (questionable, ankle)

PIT DFS chalk: Steelers DST (NYJ 30th in sack percentage allowed, PIT second in takeaways, second in sack percentage)

NYJ DFS chalk: none

PIT DFS tournament plays: James Washington (NYJ 32nd in DVOA against deep throws)

NYJ DFS tournament plays: Vyncint Smith (PIT 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: NYJ are 31st in third-down offense at 30.6 percent; PIT is 11th in third-down defense at 36.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Conner picks up 70 yards. Hodges throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to JuJu. Le'Veon Bell manages to eke out 50 yards and a score. Darnols throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Anderson. Steelers 16-14
 

N.Y. Giants (+2.5) at Washington, 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

With Eli Manning's final home win and legacy as a perfectly average .500 quarterback secured, the Giants will hand the ball back to Daniel Jones to close out the year, setting up a showdown of rookie first-round picks to determine who is really the worst team in the worst division in football in 2019. When these two teams met in Week 4, the kid QBs combined for five picks and only one touchdown, but the Giants still won handily and did it without Saquon Barkley – which makes this spread a little curious. I'd point out New York is 1-6 on the road, but Washington is 1-6 at home, so shrug emoji. Darius Slayton continues to put together a surprising late-season breakout, finding the end zone seven times in the last seven games, and his ability to stretch the field should make at least one of Sterling Shepard or Golden Tate more effective underneath, or at least it would if the team was getting consistent play at quarterback. That's still more support than Terry McLaurin is getting, though. There really isn't much going right for Washington other than his performance this year, as Derrius Guice wasn't healthy long enough to prove anything and Dwayne Haskins has completed under 60 percent of his passes with a 6.6 YPA and 5:3 TD:INT in his six starts – although, granted, he looked reasonably capable last week against the Eagles. On paper, their best chance of winning this one might have to come from someone like Landon Collins having a revenge game (or Ereck Flowers? How would a turnstile take revenge on someone, anyway?)

The Skinny

NYG injuries: none

WAS injuries: RG Brandon Scherff (IR, shoulder), S Collins (questionable, Achilles)

NYG DFS chalk: Slayton (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS chalk: McLaurin (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 27th in DVOA against deep throws)

NYG DFS tournament plays: Kaden Smith (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Giants DST (WAS 31st in points per game, 31st in sack percentage allowed)

WAS DFS tournament plays: Haskins (NYG 28th in YPA allowed, 30th in passing DVOA), Kelvin Harmon (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Washington DST (NYG 31st in giveaways)

Key stat: NYG are 21st in third-down offense at 36.3 percent; WAS is t-31st in third-down defense at 48.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 NYG, average score 24-16 NYG, average margin of victory 13 points. NYG have won three of the last four meetings, including a 24-3 victory in Week 4.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Barkley gains 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Jones throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Slayton. Adrian Peterson runs for 80 yards and a score. Haskins throws for 230 yards and TDs to McLaurin and Harmon. Giants 23-21
 

Carolina (+7) at Indianapolis, 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Panthers waited a lot longer than they needed to, but they've finally decided it's time to see what third-round pick Will Grier can do at quarterback. It's Christian McCaffrey who will likely be the focus of the game plan, though – he's 388 yards short of Chris Johnson's 2009 record for scrimmage yards in a season, and while that's a tall ask over the final two games of the year, CMac has two games this year over 200 and a few others in the 170-180 yard range, including last week's 175 against the Seattle. The Colts are theoretically alive in the AFC playoff race, but it's less a narrow path to the postseason than a phantom trail in a haunted woods. While most will point to T.Y. Hilton's injury as the cause, it's the defense that should be left holding the bag – Indy's given up more than 30 points in three straight games, all losses. Marlon Mack should at least give them a chance of scoring 30 to balance that out. He hasn't done much the last two weeks since returning to action from a hand injury, but Carolina's run defense has been tragically bad.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, knee), LB Shaq Thompson (out, ankle)

IND injuries: CB Kenny Moore II (out, ankle)

CAR DFS chalk: none

IND DFS chalk: Mack (CAR 32nd in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing DVOA)

CAR DFS tournament plays: Samuel (IND 31st in DVOA against deep throws), Jarius Wright (IND 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), Panthers DST (CAR third in sack percentage)

IND DFS tournament plays: Colts DST (CAR t-29th in giveaways)

Key stat: CAR is 29th in third-down offense at 32.2 percent; IND is 23rd in third-down defense at 42.1 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

McCaffrey piles up 150 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Grier has an unremarkable debut, throwing for 220 yards and a TD to D.J. Moore. Mack answers back with 130 rushing yards and two scores. Jacoby Brissett throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Jack Doyle. Colts 21-20
 

Baltimore at Cleveland (+10), 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Ravens can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win Sunday, and what better way to do it than by avenging an earlier loss against a hated division rival? That 40-25 shellacking in Week 4 stands out like a sore thumb on their schedule – the Baltimore defense hasn't allowed more than 23 points since, while the offense has put up more points in seven of the subsequent 10 contests. Lamar Jackson already holds the NFL record for rushing yards in a season by a QB, with potentially two games left to pad his totals, but it's his development as a passer that might matter more in the long run – he also leads the league in passing TDs with 33, and a 66.2 percent completion rate and 7.8 YPA mark him as far more than just an electric athlete who happens to line up under center. No defense has been able to figure out how to stop the Ravens yet. The Niners came the closest, and still gave up 178 rushing yards to Jackson, Mark Ingram et al. A Browns defense that just got tagged for 38 points by Kyler Murray and the Cards doesn't seem a likely suspect to suddenly come up with a master plan. Cleveland does have a non-zero chance of making the postseason, and Nick Chubb – who was the difference in Week 4-- is competing for a rushing title, but that brief window in which Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry were making magic together seems to have closed. If the Browns fall behind early, this one could easily turn into a rout.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: LT Ronnie Stanley (questionable, concussion)

CLE injuries: C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), DE Myles Garrett (out, suspension), DE Olivier Vernon (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS chalk: none

CLE DFS chalk: none

BAL DFS tournament plays: none

CLE DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: BAL is third in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 68.4 percent (39-for-57) of RZ possessions and ranking first in RZ trips; CLE is 20th in red-zone defense at 58.3 percent (28-for-48)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 BAL, average score 25-19 BAL, average margin of victory nine points. Two of CLE's three wins have come in the last three meetings, including a 40-25 victory in Week 4.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Ingram bangs out 100 yards and a touchdown, while Jackson runs for 70 yards and a TD of his own, He also throws for 240 yards and three scores, hitting Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and Justice Hill. Chubb gets held to 70 yards. Mayfield throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Odell Beckham Jr. and David Njoku but gets picked off twice. Ravens 38-20
 

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Atlanta, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jags ruined the Raiders' going-away party last week, snapping a five-game losing streak in the process, but the victory seemed more the result of Oakland's flaws than Jacksonville's strengths (as well as yet another blown call by NFL referees that somehow wasn't reviewable or fixable). Gardner Minshew did get to lead another comeback and fire off those finger guns, but the quick regression of the defense has been kind of amazing to watch, like time-lapse photography of a rotting orange. Two years ago they were the terror of the league; now they can't stop guys like Philip Rivers or Ryan Tannehill from hanging 40-plus points on them, as injuries, trades and age have eroded the talent base in the front seven and the secondary. The Falcons are there with them in the five-win morass, but four of those wins have come in their last six games, giving them a lot more pep in their step. Matt Ryan still hasn't re-discovered his MVP form, but Julio Jones could be gearing up for a big finish. In this matchup, they may not need much more than that.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR DJ Chark Jr. (questionable, ankle)

ATL injuries: LG James Carpenter (IR, concussion)

JAC DFS chalk: none

ATL DFS chalk: Devonta Freeman (JAC 31st in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in rushing DVOA), Austin Hooper (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS tournament plays: Chris Conley (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Dede Westbrook (ATL 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)

ATL DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: JAC is 28th in third-down offense at 33.3 percent; ATL is 24th in third-down defense at 42.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop

Leonard Fournette rumbles for 70 yards. Minshew throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Chark and Conley. Freeman picks up 90 yards and a touchdown. Ryan throws for 260 yards and two scores to Julio and Hooper. Falcons 24-20
 

New Orleans at Tennessee (+3), 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The dogfight at the top of the NFC currently sees the Saints in the No. 3 seed due to a bit of a quirk – if they were only tied with the Seahawks they'd move up to No. 1 due to a Week 3 win in Seattle, but in a three-way tie with the Packers included, they tumble as a result of things like conference record and record against common opponents. In other worse, a Green Bay loss might be worth more to New Orleans than a win of its own. Michael Thomas remains on a collision course with the record book, sitting only 10 catches behind Marvin Harrison's 143 in 2002, and considering he sees more than 11 targets a game and never seems to drop any of them, the record should be in the bag. It would be fitting if he set it here, considering Drew Brees passed Peyton Manning in career TDs and set the single-game record for completion percentage last week. The 40-year-old QB has a ridiculous 16:1 TD:INT over the last five games with a 7.9 YPA and 77.0 percent completion rate, and it would be interesting to see what kind of MVP buzz he'd be getting if he hadn't missed five games earlier in the year. The Titans have a lot on the line in this one too, though. Last week's loss to the Texans still leaves them behind the Steelers in the hunt for the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but they could still catch Houston for the AFC South crown as well – although that door could be shut by the time they suit up Sunday. Derrick Henry has slowed down, perhaps as a result of the hamstring issue he's been nursing, but A.J. Brown has stepped up alongside him as an unstoppable force, hauling in 447 yards and four TDs over the last four games. Imagine being a safety facing the Tennessee offense right now – after a couple of quarters getting trucked by Henry, you then have to try and tackle Brown. Sweet merciful heaven. The weather might also work in their favor here too, if they have to get dirty in the mud against a team used to playing indoors.

The Skinny

NO injuries: LG Andrus Peat (questionable, forearm), RG Larry Warford (out, knee), LB Kiko Alonso (out, quad), S Vonn Bell (out, knee)

TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, ankle), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, foot)

NO DFS chalk: none

TEN DFS chalk: none

NO DFS tournament plays: Tre'Quan Smith (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), Saints DST (TEN 32nd in sack percentage allowed)

TEN DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: TEN is first in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 73.2 percent (30-for-41) of RZ possessions; NO is 22nd in red-zone defense at 60.5 percent (26-for-43)

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Alvin Kamara darts for 70 combined yards, while Latavius Murray scores a TD. Brees throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Thomas and Smith. Henry bashes out 110 yards and two scores. Ryan Tannehill throws for 260 yards and TDs to Jonnu Smith and Brown. Titans 28-23
 

Oakland (+6.5) at L.A. Chargers, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Raiders losing their final game in Oakland somehow didn't seem surprising. For all the franchise's rich history, the team's second chapter by the bay never really amount to much – they've been above .500 just once in the last 17 seasons, and that will become 18 in a couple weeks. Maybe if Jon Gruden had stuck around rather than splitting for Tampa in the early 2000s... They'll head into this one down their impressive rookie RB, as Josh Jacobs will sit for another game due to his shoulder injury after gutting it out for 26 touches last week. DeAndre Washington did a solid job as the lead back two weeks ago against the Titans though, and Jalen Richard is always capable of making an impact with a small workload, so they should be in decent shape in the backfield. The Bolts have lost four of five and the one win was against a Jaguars outfit in a bigger freefall than they were, so the only thing they have to look forward to is the chance to play spoiler against the Chiefs in Week 17. Philip Rivers' 9:11 TD:INT over those five games seems like a call for help, and three of those picks came the last time these two AFC West rivals met. The Chargers still have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but like so many teams out of playoff contention at this time of year, the question is whether they're going to show up.

The Skinny

OAK injuries: RB Jacobs (out, shoulder), LG Richie Incognito (out, ankle)

LAC injuries: LT Russell Okung (doubtful, groin)

OAK DFS chalk: none

LAC DFS chalk: Mike Williams (OAK 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 29th in DVOA against deep throws)

OAK DFS tournament plays: Raiders DST (LAC t-29th in giveaways)

LAC DFS tournament plays: Rivers (OAK 32nd in YPA allowed, 30th in passing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA), Melvin Gordon / Austin Ekeler (OAK 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: LAC are seventh in third-down offense at 44.6 percent; OAK is 29th in third-down defense at 44.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 LAC, average score 23-20 LAC, average margin of victory seven points. LAC had won four straight meetings before Week 10's 26-24 OAK victory.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Washington gains 80 combined yards. Derek Carr throws for 240 yards and TDs to Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams. Gordon picks up 70 yards while Ekeler leads the LAC backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Rivers throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Mike Williams. Chargers 23-20
 

Detroit (+7) at Denver, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

First the good news: Kerryon Johnson has made enough progress from his knee injury that he could be activated from IR in time for this game. The bad news is that he was averaging 3.3 yards a carry when he got hurt, and that was when defenses had to worry about Matthew Stafford, so he's not exactly a sure-fire solution to the Lions' offensive woes. Detroit's averaging only 17.7 points a game over its seven-game losing streak, and David Blough isn't even making a decent case for the No. 2 job in 2020. The Broncos, on the other hand, have to be a lot happier with the performance of their young QB. They've won two of Drew Lock's three starts, and while he only put up strong numbers in one of them, it's still an encouraging start to his NFL career. With Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant on the other end of his passes, the offense in 2020 could be a match for a defense that still boasts a stingy secondary and will get Bradley Chubb back to bolster the pass rush. Now, if only Denver could figure out how to keep its offensive line healthy.

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Stafford (IR, back), RB Johnson (IR, knee), RB Bo Scarbrough (questionable, ribs), RT Rick Wagner (out, knee)

DEN injuries: TE Fant (questionable, shoulder), LG Dalton Risner (questionable, illness), RG Ron Leary (out, concussion), RT Ja'Wuan James (out, knee)

DET DFS chalk: none

DEN DFS chalk: none

DET DFS tournament plays: none

DEN DFS tournament plays: Lock (DET 27th in YPA allowed, 31st in passing yards per game allowed, t-28th in passing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA), Phillip Lindsay / Royce Freeman (DET 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), DaeSean Hamilton (DET 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: DET is 15th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 57.9 percent (22-for-38) of RZ possessions; DEN is first in red-zone defense at 41.0 percent (16-for-39)

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Kerryon gets activated but only manages 50 yards. Blough throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Kenny Golladay, getting picked off twice. Lindsay leads the DEN backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Freeman adds 50 yards. Lock throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Fant and Hamilton. Broncos 27-10
 

Arizona (+9.5) at Seattle, 50.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Cards ended their six-game losing streak last week against the Browns, but they were playing a bit better than their record indicated – their two losses to the Niners during that stretch were by a combined 13 points, and they kept things close against the Bucs and Steelers as well. This still a team in the full throes of a rebuild of course, with a rookie QB and rookie coach both trying to find their way, but Kliff Kingsbury deserves some credit for being willing to stick with what works and ditch what doesn't rather than trying to do things "his" way and prove what a genius he is, a failing that has derailed many a college hire before him. Case in point: if Kenyan Drake can't be stopped in the red zone, then keep giving Kenyan Drake the ball in the red zone, rather than getting cute with designated runs for Kyler Murray or leaking a tight end out of a jumbo package or something. The Seahawks currently hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but it's a precarious perch with three other teams at 11 wins and plenty of scenarios that could see them plummet all the way to No. 5. Russell Wilson steered out of his skid in last week's win over the Panthers, and Tyler Lockett looking like he was 100 percent again likely had a lot to do with that. The last time Seattle faced Arizona, an early defensive score allowed Wilson and the offense to coast to the finish line. The Hawks have made a habit of playing down to the opposition – their last win by more than one score was that Week 4 victory over the Cards – and a banged-up defense has had trouble locking down games, but with so much on the line for them here, Pete Carroll might actually be inspired to go for the jugular in this one.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: WR Christian Kirk (questionable, ankle), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, back)

SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (IR, knee), LT Duane Brown (questionable, biceps), DE Jadeveon Clowney (doubtful, groin)

ARI DFS chalk: none

SEA DFS chalk: Wilson (ARI 30th in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Chris Carson (ARI 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jacob Hollister (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS tournament plays: Drake (SEA 30th in rushing TDs allowed)

SEA DFS tournament plays: Malik Turner / David Moore (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Seahawks DST (SEA third in takeaways)

Key stat: SEA is 15th in third-down offense at 40.2 percent; ARI is 30th in third-down defense at 47.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-3-1 SEA, average score 25-17 SEA, average margin of victory 11 points. SEA has won three straight meetings and four of the last five, including a 27-10 victory in Week 4.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Drake gains 80 yards and a score. Murray throws for 260 yards and a TD to Larry Fitzgerald. Carson rumbles for 110 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and Hollister once. Seahawks 34-20
 

Dallas at Philadelphia (+2.5), 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

In theory the Cowboys could lose this game and still hang on to the NFC East title, but in all likelihood, this one is for all the marbles in the division. Erratic is a charitable description of how Dallas has played this year, but when the team is playing at its best they look like an opponent who can put a scare into anyone, if not quite a Super Bowl threat. The big question heading into this is the health of Dak Prescott's shoulder after he injured it last week – the Cowboys leaned heavily on the running game in a rout of the Rams, and they might have to do it again here if Prescott isn't 100 percent. Ezekiel Elliott rolled for 147 scrimmage yards and a TD last time these two teams met, so that may not be a problem. The Eagles has been just as inconsistent, and maybe even moreso, this year – while Cowboys fans moan the team's loss to the Jets, Philly's dropped games to the Lions and Dolphins – but at least they have injuries as an excuse. The receiving corps has been absolutely demolished, and while that has given Greg Ward a chance to prove he belongs in the NFL and Miles Sanders a chance to lock up the No. 1 job in the backfield, it still leaves Carson Wentz with fewer options than he needs to thrive.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (out, neck)

PHI injuries: RB Jordan Howard (questionable, shoulder), WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, knee), RT Lane Johnson (out, ankle)

DAL DFS chalk: none

PHI DFS chalk: none

DAL DFS tournament plays: none

PHI DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: DAL is 13th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 59.2 percent (29-for-49) of RZ possessions; PHI is 24th in red-zone defense at 61.5 percent (24-for-39)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DAL, average score 22-22, average margin of victory 13 points. DAL has won four straight meetings, including a 37-10 victory in Week 7.

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Elliott pops for 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Tony Pollard adds 50 yards. Prescott throws for 250 yards and runs in a score of his own. Sanders picks up 90 combined yards and a TD. Wentz throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz, but a late fumble on a DeMarcus Lawrence strip sack ends the team's comeback, and playoff, hopes. Cowboys 23-21

Kansas City at Chicago (+6), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Chiefs have won four straight to give themselves a chance at a first-round bye, but surprisingly it's been the defense, and not Patrick Mahomes and the offense, that's led the way. They haven't given up more than 17 points in any of those four victories, and while the weather was a de facto 12th man for them in a couple of those contests (including last week's 23-3 winter wonderland win over the Broncos), it's still an impressive run. For his part. Mahomes tossed 340 yards and two TDs in the same snowy conditions, so it seems safe to say he's OK. The Bears are eliminated from the playoffs, but they're going down swinging, having won three straight before giving the Packers a fight last week in Green Bay. Mitchell Trubisky has throws for more than 300 yards in two of his last three starts, a shocking outburst for a guy who didn't even top 253 yards this year until Week 12, but better late than never I suppose. He's got two dangerous weapons in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, but David Montgomery hasn't made much of an impact out of the backfield as a rookie. The narrative you'll probably hear about endlessly from Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth, of course, will be that this is Matt Nagy's first game as head coach against his former mentor Andy Reid (Nagy was Kansas City's QB coach/OC from 2013-17), but Nagy hasn't exactly shown that he's a guy with a lot of tricks up his sleeve in his nearly two seasons in Chicago.

The Skinny

KC injuries: LG Andrew Wylie (out, ankle)

CHI injuries: WR Taylor Gabriel (out, concussion), RT Bobby Massie (out, ankle)

KC DFS chalk: none

CHI DFS chalk: Montgomery (KC 30th in YPC allowed)

KC DFS tournament plays: none

CHI DFS tournament plays: none

Key stat: CHI is 26th in third-down offense at 34.6 percent; KC is t-9th in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-30s, 11-12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Damien Williams leads the KC backfield with 70 yards, while LeSean McCoy adds 50. Mahomes throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins. Montgomery runs for 80 yards and a TD. Trubisky throws for 250 yards and a score to Miller. Chiefs 26-17
 

Houston at Tampa Bay (+3), 49.5 o/u – Saturday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans need one win in their final two games to lock up the AFC South, so while clinching next week against the Titans might be more dramatic, don't expect them to take their foot off the gas in this one. Deshaun Watson's in one of his occasional ruts, posting a 3:4 TD:INT the last two games, but he needs just one more passing touchdown for a career high and probably will have a career high in passing yards as well when things are said and done, especially if he takes full advantage of this matchup. Houston's defense has been mostly good down the stretch as well, allowing 22 points or less to five of seven opponents since it lost J.J. Watt in Week 8. Of course, in the other two games, they coughed up a combined 79 points to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (OK, sure) and Drew Lock and the Broncos (insert blinking white guy gif here). Watt, incidentally, could make it back from his pectoral injury from the playoffs, giving the team an emotional lift if nothing else. The Bucs are long out of playoff contention, but might not have had any healthy receivers left for the postseason even if they were. Mike Evans is already on IR, but now Chris Godwin is limping too, and even Scott Miller broke down. That leaves Jameis Winston throwing to Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson and whatever scraps they've pulled off practice squads the last couple weeks, which makes Winston's big finish to the year so far even more impressive. It's actually not that unusual for the QB who leads the league in passing yards to also lead it in interceptions — Ben Roethlisberger did it last year, and Drew Brees in 2012 — but Winston's season still feels weird and special, maybe because it started so poorly and Tampa games have been such wild affairs. The Bucs take a four-game winning streak into this one, though, and his future with the team seems to be a little more secure than it did in November.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Carlos Hyde (questionable, ankle), WR Will Fuller V (questionable, hamstring), LB Benardrick McKinney (out, concussion) 

TB injuries: QB Winston (questionable, thumb), WR Godwin (out, hamstring), LT Donovan Smith (questionable, knee), C Ryan Jensen (questionable, elbow)

HOU DFS targets: Watson (TB 30th in passing yards per game allowed), DeAndre Hopkins / Will Fuller V (TB 30th in DVOA against deep throws), Texans DST (TB 32nd in giveaways)

TB DFS targets: Winston (HOU t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Dare Ogunbowale (HOU 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

HOU DFS fades: Hyde / Duke Johnson (TB second in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing DVOA, first in passing DVOA vs. RB)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is fourth in third-down offense at 46.1 percent; TB is fifth in third-down defense at 34.4 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Hyde gains 60 yards, while Johnson adds 50 combined yards. Watston throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) and Jordan Akins while running in a score of his own. Ronald Jones racks up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Winston gets picked off twice but throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Watson twice and Ogunbowale once. Buccaneers, 28-27
 

Buffalo (+6.5) at New England, 37.5 o/u – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

While the Bills can still theoretically claim the AFC East crown, they'd not only need to win Saturday, they'd need the Pats to lose to the Dolphins in Week 17 while they win out (New England holds the edge in the "record against common opponents" tiebreaker), so they're all but locked into the No. 5 seed and a likely trip to Houston to begin the playoffs. It'll still be only the franchise's second postseason appearance of the 2000s. Josh Allen had his worst performance of the season in his last meeting with the Pats, which is par for the course for young QBs, but he still ran for a TD in that game and unlike, say, Sam Darnold, he didn't have a post-Belichick hangover — in the six games after that Week 4 loss, Allen posted a 10:1 TD:INT. Buffalo doesn't need him to be sharp to win, as Sean McDermott's squad is built around its defense, but if he can avoid throwing another three INTs, their odds of pulling the upset will go way up. Tom Brady also had arguably his worst game of the year in Week 4, but his chances of putting up better numbers this time around somehow seem worse than Allen's. Julian Edelman is playing through a bum knee, and none of his other receivers have stepped up consistently, which leaves Brady with few options other than a blizzard of dumpoffs to James White and Rex Burkhead. With New England's league-leading defense at his back that's been enough most of the time, but if the Pats stumble they could lose their hold on the No. 2 seed in the conference, and a first-round bye they probably need. Dynasty or no, reputation or no, this doesn't seem like a roster that's going to win four consecutive games in January and February.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: none

NE injuries: WR Edelman (questionable, knee), LB Jamie Collins (questionable, shoulder)

BUF DFS targets: Bills DST (BUF second in points per game allowed)

NE DFS targets: Patriots DST (NE first in points per game allowed, first in takeaways)

BUF DFS fades: Allen (NE first in YPA allowed, second in passing yards per game allowed, first in passing TDs allowed, first in passing DVOA), John Brown (NE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Cole Beasley (NE first in DVOA vs. WR2)

NE DFS fades: Brady (BUF third in passing yards allowed per game, t-2nd in passing TDs allowed), Edelman (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: BUF is 11th in red-zone offense, scoring a TD on 61.5 percent (24-for-39) of RZ possessions; NE is seventh in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (11-for-22), and first in red-zone trips allowed

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 NE, average score 25-16 NE, average margin of victory 13 points. NE has won six straight meetings, including a 16-10 victory in Week 4 – the smallest margin in any of the six wins.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 20s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Devin Singletary grinds out 70 combined yards and a receiving score, while Allen throws for less than 200 yards. White leads the NE backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD of his own. Brady throws for less than 200 yards but does find Matt LaCosse for a touchdown that proves to be the difference. Patriots, 20-13
 

L.A. Rams (+6.5) at San Francisco, 45.0 o/u – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Rams' collapse in Dallas puts them in a precarious position — one more loss, or one Vikings win, the next two weeks and they're toast. Jared Goff looked absolutely lost in the first half against the Cowboys, and while he salvaged his numbers in garbage time, the buzz from carving up the hapless Cards secondary a couple weeks ago has already worn off. Tyler Higbee, at least, is opening a lot of eyes with his three consecutive 100-yard performances, but now Gerald Everett's healthy again to fight him for snaps so even that could be about to evaporate. Aaron Donald will probably go down swinging, but there wasn't much you could take away from last week's debacle to suggest they'll rally and steal a wild-card spot. The Niners also blew it last week against the Falcons, as Kyle Shanahan's old club took revenge on him for leaving rather than vice versa. The loss dropped them to the No. 5 seed in the ultra-competitive NFC, as tiebreakers mark them as the worst of the conference's four 11-win teams, but that's arguably a better spot to be in than the No. 3 seed — if you're going to play the first weekend of the playoffs, would you rather play host to the Vikings (probably) or head out as a likely road favorite against the NFC East winner? Raheem Mostert's emergence hasn't balanced out a defensive regression that's seen San Francisco give up 95 points the last three weeks, and they'll need to staunch that bleeding if they're going to regain their swagger as serious Super Bowl contenders.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: K Greg Zuerlein (questionable, quad)

SF injuries: C Weston Richburg (IR, knee), RG Mike Person (questionable, neck), DE Dee Ford (out, quad)

LAR DFS targets: Todd Gurley (SF 27th in YPC allowed)

SF DFS targets: Mostert (LAR 23rd in rushing yards per game allowed, 24th in passing DVOA vs. RB), 49ers DST (SF first in sack percentage)

LAR DFS fades: Goff (SF second in YPA allowed, first in passing yards per game allowed, second in passing DVOA), Higbee (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)

SF DFS fades: Jimmy Garoppolo (LAR fifth in YPA allowed)

Key stat: LAR are 16th in third-down offense at 37.9 percent; SF is second in third-down defense at 30.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 SF, average score 23-22 SF, average margin of victory 14 points. The last four meetings have all been decided by at least 13 points, including a 20-7 SF victory in Week 6.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Gurley runs for 70 yards and a score. Goff throws for 240 yards and a TD to Cooper Kupp but gets picked off twice, one of which Emmanuel Moseley returns to the house. Mostert gallops for 90 yards and a touchdown, while Matt Breida adds 50 combined yards. Garoppolo throws for 290 yards and a TD to George Kittle. 49ers, 33-17

Last week's record: 11-5, 10-5-1 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 138-85-1, 106-112-6 ATS, 111-108-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 774-469-5, 576-624-48 ATS, 477-497-18 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)