Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on December 19, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Baker Mayfield (at DAL) — 52% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (vs. NO), Sam Darnold (at SEA), Jared Goff (at CHI)

While most of the starting-caliber fantasy QBs will face tough defenses and/or deal with frigid conditions this weekend, Mayfield will be playing indoors against the Cowboys. Their defense hasn't been quite as pathetic since Micah Parsons came back from his ankle injury, but the slight improvement hasn't been an impediment for top QBs, with Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow each topping 25 fantasy points versus Dallas in the six weeks since Parsons' return. Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Brocky Purdy also topped 25 points against the Cowboys, and no starting QB has fallen shy of double digits in a Dallas matchup all year. Note that the Bucs are four-point favorites in a game tied for the largest over/under (48) of Week 16, with their implied total (26) tied for fifth best in the league (behind BUF, GB, CIN, DET).

Other Good Matchups: Kyler Murray (at CAR), Aaron Rodgers (vs. LAR), Michael Penix (vs. NYG), Drew Lock (at ATL), Cooper Rush (vs. TB)

Running Backs 👍

Chuba Hubbard (vs. ARZ) —

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Baker Mayfield (at DAL) — 52% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (vs. NO), Sam Darnold (at SEA), Jared Goff (at CHI)

Other Good Matchups: Kyler Murray (at CAR), Aaron Rodgers (vs. LAR), Michael Penix (vs. NYG), Drew Lock (at ATL), Cooper Rush (vs. TB)

Running Backs 👍

Chuba Hubbard (vs. ARZ) — 76% started

Start Over — Joe Mixon (at KC), Breece Hall (vs. LAR), Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN)

For much of the season, Hubbard put up huge scores in favorable matchups and mediocre numbers when he faced better defenses. The past four weeks it's been the other way around, with PPR totals of 15.0 against the Chiefs, 2.3 against the Bucs, 20.7 against the Eagles and 8.9 against the Cowboys. It's a reminder of how fickle fantasy football can be, especially start/sit decisions between similarly valued players, but that doesn't mean it isn't worth analyzing. The Panthers happen to have one of their largest implied totals (21.0) of the season this week, facing an Arizona defense that's allowed the seventh most PPR points (24.5) to running backs and the ninth most yards per carry (4.59). Plus, Hubbard should get all the work he can handle, considering his backups are return men Raheem Blackshear and Velus Jones (Miles Sanders and Jonathon Brooks are on IR).

Travis Etienne (at LV) — 40% started

Start Over — Javonte Williams (at LAC), Jaylen Warren (at BAL), Tyrone Tracy (at ATL)

Etienne is an intriguing dice-roll for deep leagues or desperate situations, having worked as Jacksonville's lead runner in two of three games since a Week 12 bye. He even looked like his old self in that time, taking 31 carries for 131 yards (4.22 YPC) and catching 11 of 12 targets for 82 yards (6.83 YPR), albeit without a touchdown to show for his efforts. There's always risk of Tank Bigsby getting more carries if he gets hot early or the coaches think he's better for the matchup, but Etienne has a legitimate ceiling this week if things break in his favor, facing a Las Vegas defense that has its three best linemen on injured reserve. The last six lead backs to take on the Raiders averaged 4.3 YPC or better, and there's a good chance the Jaguars continue that streak... with the caveat being that we can't promise it'll be Etienne rather than Bigsby who benefits.

Other Good Matchups: Jahmyr Gibbs (at CHI), Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. NYG), Josh Jacobs (vs. NO), James Conner (at CAR), Bucky Irving & Rachaad White (at DAL), James Cook (vs. NE), Alexander Mattison & Ameer Abdullah (vs. JAX)

Wide Receivers 👍

Jakobi Meyers (vs. JAX) — 55% started

Start Over — Jerry Jeudy (at CIN), Marvin Harrison (at CAR), Khalil Shakir (vs. NE)

A late surge left Meyers with a 5-59-0 receiving line on nine targets in Monday's 15-9 loss to Atlanta, surviving a brutal Desmond Ridder start relatively unscathed. The Raiders now turn back to Aidan O'Connell, who is also a subpar starting QB but at least on the level where he doesn't totally torpedo his pass catchers. The timing is perfect for fantasy managers, with the Raiders hosting a Jacksonville defense that's allowing the third most PPR points and a league-high 9.21 yards per target to wide receivers.

Keenan Allen (vs. DET) — 42% started

Start Over — DeAndre Hopkins (vs. HOU), Jayden Reed (vs. NO), Darnell Mooney (vs. NYG)

Allen hasn't played well this season, but he's at least been useful for fantasy in favorable matchups, scoring 20-plus PPR points in each of his four games against defenses in the bottom 10 points allowed to wide receivers. That includes a matchup with a less-injured version of this Detroit defense just three weeks ago, when Allen finished with a 5-73-2 receiving line on eight targets after entering halftime without a reception. That's been a theme for him this season, especially in recent weeks, with the 32-year-old recording nearly all of his production while trailing in the second half. He's scored all six of his TDs after halftime this year, along with 61.9 percent of his targets and 68.2 percent of his yardage. Cheap points help us just as much as hard-earned ones.

Other Good Matchups: Malik Nabers & Wan'Dale Robinson (at ATL), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. MIN), DJ Moore (vs. DET), Mike Evans & Jalen McMillan (at DAL), Courtland Sutton (at LAC), Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs & Jayden Reed (vs. NO), Tre Tucker (vs. JAX), Jalen Coker (vs. ARZ)

Tight Ends 👍

Pat Freiermuth (at BAL) — 30% started

Start Over — Tucker Kraft (vs. NO), Dalton Kincaid (vs. NE), Cade Otton (at DAL)

The combination of George Pickens (hamstring) likely being absent and the Steelers being 6.5-point underdogs is a best-case scenario for Freiermuth's volume projection, and that's before we consider how Baltimore has defended the run far better than the pass all year. Coming off three straight games with a touchdown and at least three receptions, Freiermuth has a real chance to top his season-high mark of seven targets, working as the top threat in a short-handed passing attack.

Other Good Matchups: Trey McBride (at CAR), Brock Bowers (vs. JAX), Jake Ferguson (vs. TB)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Patrick Mahomes (vs. HOU) — 71% started

Start Instead — Baker Mayfield (at DAL), Sam Darnold (at SEA), Brock Purdy (at MIA)

The mild ankle sprain won't stop Mahomes from playing Saturday, but it might impact his mobility, which is especially concerning with the Chiefs facing a fearsome Houston pass rush at the same time they're shuffling pieces on their O-Line to account for struggles and injuries at left tackle. The plan last week entailed moving stud left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle, where he promptly posted his worst single-game PFF grade (50.4) since Week 6... of 2020. Facing Myles Garrett didn't help, of course, but there's no respite this week against a Houston defense led by edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12.0 sacks) and Will Anderson (10.5).

Other Tough Matchups: Lamar Jackson (vs. PIT), Jayden Daniels (vs. PHI), C.J. Stroud (at KC), Brock Purdy (at MIA)

Running Backs 👎

Isiah Pacheco (vs. HOU) — 61% started

Start Instead — Bucky Irving (at DAL), Rachaad White (at DAL), Brian Robinson (vs. PHI)

Assumptions about Pacheco regaining his old role took a big hit last week when he played the same number of snaps (37 percent) as Kareem Hunt and had the same number of carries (13). The split was far more in Pacheco's favor the week before, but even then he took only 46 percent of snaps, well below his late-2023 and early 2024 norms in the range of 65-80 percent. Now he'll face a tough Houston front that's allowed the fourth fewest PPR points to running backs and the eighth least yards per carry (3.97), which means there's potential for a poor fantasy score even if the workload shifts more toward Pacheco and away from Hunt.

Najee Harris (at BAL) — 54% started

Start Instead — Tony Pollard (vs. IND), Isaac Guerendo or Patrick Taylor (at MIA), D'Andre Swift (vs. DET)

Harris got by on volume last time he faced Baltimore, taking 22 touches for 93 yards while playing 58 percent of snaps in an 18-16 Steelers win (Week 11). He's played 42 percent over the four subsequent games, averaging 15.8 touches, 64.3 total yards and 11.7 PPR points while yielding more work to both Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson. The threat of Warren playing more snaps is especially pronounced this week with the Steelers set up as 6.5-point underdogs, not to mention the difficulty of facing a pass-funnel Baltimore defense that's limiting running backs to 63.8 rushing yards per game (2nd) and 3.41 YPC (1st). In full-PPR leagues, the Ravens have allowed more RB fantasy points on receptions (10.3 per game) than they have on carries (9.8 per game)

Other Tough Matchups: Joe Mixon (at KC), Derrick Henry (vs. PIT), Brian Robinson (vs. PHI), Rhamondre Stevenson (at BUF), Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet (vs. MIN), Gus Edwards & Kimani Vidal (vs. DEN)

Wide Receivers 👎

Amari Cooper (vs. NE) — 44% started

Start Instead — Tank Dell (at KC), Josh Downs (vs. TEN), Christian Watson (vs. NO), Jalen McMillan (at DAL)

New England's defense obviously isn't scary, but it does have top cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who likely will cover Cooper on a decent portion of his routes. The bigger problem is that those routes probably won't be numerous, as Cooper still isn't a full-time player, handling 46-53 percent of snaps in each of his past five games. After drawing 14 targets on 23 routes (62 percent route share) in the Week 14 shootout at Los Angeles, he finished without a single target on 13 routes (38 percent share) in the Week 15 shootout at Detroit. This week's game is more likely to be a blowout than a shootout, which means there's risk of Cooper only running something along the lines of 10-12 routes. The list of players I'd start over Cooper is a long one, including some names that might surprise you.

Deebo Samuel (at MIA) — 44% started

Start Instead — Adam Thielen (vs. ARZ), Darnell Mooney (vs. NYG), Jayden Reed (vs. NO)

Here we have another disappointing, big-name receiver, only in Samuel's case the problem is a lack of production on a per-snap/route/target basis, not a lack of playing time. He's still a starter with a full-time workload, yet enters Sunday with a five-game streak of 6.1 or fewer PPR points. Maybe he beats that woeful number this weekend, but there's not much reason to expect more than 40 or so yards in a road game against a solid defense — one that's allowed the third fewest PPR points to wide receivers. It's hard to envision this current version of Samuel having a good fantasy game without the benefit of a long-distance touchdown.

Other Tough Matchups: Terry McLaurin & Dyami Brown (vs. PHI), DeVonta Smith (at WAS), Quentin Johnston (vs. DEN), Josh Downs (vs. TEN), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (at IND), Malik Washington (vs. SF), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (at GB)

Tight Ends 👎

Kyle Pitts (vs. NYG) — 43% started

Start Instead — Dalton Kincaid (vs. NE), Cade Otton (at DAL), Pat Freiermuth (at BAL)

Pitts had four straight games with double-digit PPR points Weeks 5-8 but has since fallen shy of that mark six times in a row. It's his third consecutive year averaging about three catches and 35-40 yards per game with a TD about once every five weeks, which is similar to what can freely be found on waivers in most fantasy leagues with 12 or fewer teams. It's possible there are more checkdowns and screens in the Atlanta offense now that rookie Michael Penix is the starting quarterback, but that would benefit Bijan Robinson and Ray-Ray McCloud more so than Pitts, whose profile is light on both check-down targets and first-read looks. The Falcons figure to run the ball a lot this Sunday and should be able to get it to the guys they actually prioritize, i.e., Robinson, Drake London and Darnell Mooney.