NFL Game Previews: Bills-Jets Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (+1), o/u 46.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Sean McDermott has gotten the Bills to the playoffs in four straight seasons and five of six as the head coach, and won three straight AFC East titles, but so far the team hasn't been able to get over the hump in the postseason. As such, the roster keeps getting tweaked. James Cook is now heading up the backfield, but his skill set seems like a curiously poor fit for an offense that's never much focused on throwing the ball to RBs. First-round pick Dalton Kincaid has a lot of buzz after being the first tight end off the board in a loaded 2023 class, but much like Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, the optimism is largely based on the belief he won't really be asked to do tight end things (like, y'know, blocking) and will just be a big slot receiver. As long as Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are healthy this team won't have trouble moving the ball, and the defense should still be stout even with Von Miller out to begin the season, but at least to me, it feels like their window is trembling and threatening to close if they don't get the job done this year.

The Jets' futility at developing their own starting quarterback didn't leave Robert Saleh much choice but to go out and get someone like Aaron Rodgers, but it seems weird to see the future Hall of Famer in a different shade of green. New York surrounded the 39-year-old with familiar faces in Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and OC Nathaniel Hackett, then added Dalvin Cook (James' older brother) so that Breece Hall could ramp up gradually after his knee injury, but this season feels like it will largely come down to the connection between Rodgers and Garrett Wilson. If the second-year wideout is his new Davante Adams or Jordy Nelson, it should all work out OK, especially with Sauce Gardner and the QWilliams boys taking care of business on defense.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RB Nyheim Hines (IR, knee), EDGE Miller (PUP, knee), S Micah Hyde (questionable, back)
NYJ injuries: RB Hall (questionable, knee), WR Lazard (questionable, shoulder), WR Mecole Hardman (questionable, finger), S Chuck Clark (IR, knee)

BUF DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: Diggs $7,700 DK / $7,700 FD and Gabe Davis $5,300 DK / $6,300 FD (NYJ first in catches allowed, first in receiving yards allowed, third in receiving TDs allowed vs. WR in 2022)
NYJ DFS fades: Rodgers $6,200 DK / $7,000 FD (BUF second in passing DVOA in 2022)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 BUF, average score 24-15 BUF, average margin of victory 12 points. BUF had won four straight meetings at MetLife Stadium until the Jets' 20-17 victory in Week 9 of last season
Key stat: BUF was first in third-down conversions in 2022 at 50.3 percent, NYJ were t-11th in third-down defense at 38.1 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop James wins the battle of the Cook brothers, popping for 80 combined yards. Allen throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Kincaid and Diggs, and also runs in a score. Dalvin leads the NYJ backfield with 60 yards, while Hall adds 40. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and a TD to Wilson but gets picked off by Damar Hamlin while trying to put together a late comeback. Bills 24-16

SUNDAY EARLY SLATE

Carolina (+3) at Atlanta, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Panthers cleaned house in the offseason, bringing in Frank Reich to run the team and the offense, Ejiro Evero to run the defense, and finally Bryce Young to be the new face of the franchise. They also surrounded Young with solid imported skill players in an effort to ease the first overall pick's adjustment, and if Reich sticks to his usual scheme, Carolina will be leaning pretty heavily on Miles Sanders and the backfield rather than forcing Young to play hero. It's not like the franchise had completely bottomed out, either – this is a squad that just missed making the playoffs last season by winning the NFC South, the division title nobody wanted, and while that group as a whole should be better, none of their division rivals have taken a huge leap forward over the summer either. There's a lingering perception that because the Panthers picked 1.1, they must have been terrible last year, but they actually handled the transition from the Cam Newton-Christian McCaffrey era pretty well.

I'm not sure the same can be said for the Falcons. Heading into the team's third season under Arthur Smith, Atlanta added Bijan Robinson to an offense that already featured recent high picks in Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but none of them can play quarterback. If Atlanta's going get over that 7-10 hump, Desmond Ridder is going to have to take a big step forward in his second season, and he didn't show a lot of flashes as a rookie – although to be fair, he didn't get many chances to flash in Smith's run-heavy scheme. Bijan should thrive regardless, and the front office gave defensive coordinator Dean Pees some more toys to play with in the offseason, but this still looks like a team that could have trouble keeping up if the defense can't keep things close.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: WR DJ Chark (questionable, hamstring), WR Adam Thielen (questionable, ankle), WR Terrace Marshall (questionable, back)
ATL injuries: RB Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, undisclosed)

CAR DFS targets: Young $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (ATL 31st in passing DVOA in 2022)
ATL DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 ATL, average score 26-20 ATL, average margin of victory 11 points. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single score, and all six by 10 points or less.
Key stat: CAR was 30th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 31.7 percent; ATL was 31st in third-down defense at 45.9 percent

The Scoop Sanders gains 80 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Young throws for 230 yards and a score to Hayden Hurst. Robinson erupts for 130 yards and a touchdown in his debut, but Ridder throws for under 200 yards, although he does find London for a score. A Jonathan Mingo fumble that Jessie Bates returns to the house proves to be the difference. Falcons 21-20

Houston (+10) at Baltimore, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Second overall pick C.J. Stroud was hardly a consolation prize for the Texans, and he could develop into a true franchise QB, but the focus of the Texans' rebuild is firmly on the defense. New head coach DeMeco Ryans brings a stingy scheme with him from San Francisco, and the decision to trade up and grab Will Anderson third overall right behind Stroud is a sign of how much sway Ryans has in the decision-making. The new QB will be working with what is effectively a third-string center to begin the year and doesn't have the proven talent around him that Young does in Carolina – it wouldn't be a shock if former Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz leads the Texans in receptions, and that's not a prediction of a huge season for Schultz – but the additions of Sheldon Rankins and Hassan Ridgeway up front should help drag the run defense up from abysmal to maybe merely a little below average, and give a talented secondary a chance to make a difference. With the Colts still in disarray and the Titans perhaps about to follow Derrick Henry off a cliff and plunge into a rebuild of their own, it's not really all that hard to imagine the Texans as the second-best team in the AFC South in 2023. It might be asking too much for that to be good enough to put them in wild-card contention, but stranger things have happened.

Of all the coaching changes this offseason, the one that has a chance to have the most seismic fantasy impact is Greg Roman's departure as the Ravens' OC. In his four years on the job, here's where Baltimore ranked in rushing yards: first, first, third and second. The fact that the team pulled that off in 2021-22 despite J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards combining for less than 1,000 yards total is frankly an incredible achievement, but with injuries also starting to pile up for Lamar Jackson, it was time to switch to an offense that had a better chance of keeping the franchise quarterback on the field. Todd Monken has spent the last few years running the attack for Kirby Smart in Georgia, but his Buccaneers finished top four in passing attempts two years running with Jameis Winston under center. He wasn't quite as pass-happy in 2019 for the Browns with Baker Mayfield, but if Monken can get Lamar back to the form he showed that same season – 7.8 YPA, career-best 66.1 percent completion rate, and four separate games with four or more TD passes – there could be some mid and late-round steals among Baltimore's receiving corps.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
BAL injuries: TE Mark Andrews (questionable, quadriceps)

HOU DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Dobbins $6,600 DK / $6,500 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed vs. RB in 2022)

HOU DFS fades: none
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU was 31st in third-down conversions in 2022 at 30.3 percent; BAL was fourth in third-down defense at 34.9 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 35-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Dameon Pierce leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Stroud throws for 240 yards and a TD to Schultz for a solid NFL debut. Dobbins picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for 260 yards and a score to Rashod Bateman. Ravens 23-10

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+1.5), o/u 47 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bengals kept things close to the vest, but Joe Burrow never really seemed in much danger of missing Week 1 after suffering a calf strain in late July. That doesn't mean all those missed reps in training camp won't have some impact, but Zac Taylor and OC Brian Callahan are the only coaches Burrow's had as a pro, and that continuity should have helped the QB avoid much of a rust build-up. He also has all his main options available, with the only big change on offense coming at tight end where Irv Smith replaces Hayden Hurst and at right tackle, where 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams should be an upgrade on La'el Collins.

Speaking of rust, how about that 2022 campaign from Deshaun Watson? Yeesh. The sample was too small, and his layoff before it too lengthy, to draw any real conclusions, but the 27-year-old looked nothing like the quarterback he was in Houston during his six-game Cleveland debut. A full offseason in Kevin Stefanski's system should help him get back to form, but he might not be afforded the same opportunities to sling it around at will that he got with the Texans, as the Browns' offense is likely to continue flowing through Nick Chubb. That said, the team isn't paying him $230 million to be a bus driver, either. The additions of Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman further suggest Stefanski's ready to open things up a bit, but there's still an awful lot of volatility for the Browns on that side of the ball, and a lot of plausible outcomes for how this season will go.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

CIN DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: none

CIN DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 CLE, average score 29-22 CLE, average margin of victory 11 points. CLE has won five straight meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium by an average score of 28-19
Key stat: CIN was third in third-down conversions in 2022 at 46.1 percent; CLE was 19th in third-down defense at 39.5 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Joe Mixon churns out 70 scrimmage yards. Burrow looks surprisingly sharp and throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, two to Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Chris Evans. Chubb piles up 100 yards and a score. Watson manages 240 yards and a TD to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Bengals 27-17

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+4.5), o/u 45 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It remains incredibly baffling to me that at this time two years ago, the Jaguars still thought Urban Meyer was a great hire. They eventually found the right guy though, and Doug Pederson's work not just salvaging Trevor Lawrence's career but getting him on track to being an elite NFL quarterback should have won him Coach of the Year last season, not Brian Daboll's smoke and mirrors routine with the Giants. Lawrence gets a new toy to play with in Calvin Ridley, and given how James Robinson got used out of the gate in 2022 until he proved he didn't really have much left to offer, it's not inconceivable that Tank Bigsby has a fairly significant role in the backfield as well. The Jags figure to have a lot of ways to beat the opposition this season, and if Travon Walker makes a Year 2 leap, the defense might as well.

Things aren't looking as swell for the northernmost team in the AFC South, though. The Jonathan Taylor situation remains a festering sore that new coach Shane Steichen has to navigate around while trying to accelerate Anthony Richardson's development as much as possible. A backfield with Richardson and JT as dual rushing threats might be dangerous; one with a motley collection of RBs like Zack Moss, Deon Jackson and Evan Hull vying for the lead role or forming a committee, not so much. I remain very skeptical of the passing numbers Richardson will produce as a rookie, no matter how much experience Steichen had turning Jalen Hurts into a stud. That's a project that took two-plus years, and expecting him to do it with a much rawer project than Hurts was coming out of college is just blind optimism. Combine that with a defense that still has talent but has lacked some cohesion since Shaquille Leonard started having trouble staying on the field, and you have a recipe for a real challenger to the Cardinals' early claim to the first pick in the 2024 draft.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
IND injuries: RB Taylor (PUP, ankle), RB Moss (questionable, arm)

JAC DFS targets: Jaguars DST $3,500 DK / $4,400 FD (IND 32nd in giveaways, 31st in sacks allowed in 2022)
IND DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 22-20 JAC, average margin of victory 12 points. IND has won five straight meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium by an average score of 29-19
Key stat: JAC was 19th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 53.4 percent; IND was 32nd in red-zone defense at 67.9 percent

The Scoop Travis Etienne piles up 90 scrimmage yards. Lawrence throws for 280 yards and two scores, finding Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Jackson leads the IND backfield with 60 yards. Richardson catches the JAC secondary napping early and hits Alec Pierce for a deep TD, but winds up throwing for under 200 yards and getting sacked four times, although he does add 50 yards on the ground. Jaguars 23-13

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Minnesota, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

This figures to be Baker Mayfield's last stand, although given his draft pedigree it's always possible some other desperate team hands him the reins down the road even if he washes out of Tampa Bay too. After beating out Kyle Trask for the honor of filling Tom Brady's cleats, Mayfield takes over an offense that has a couple aging but still reliably productive veteran wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin... and not a whole lot else, really. To be honest, I'm not entirely convinced that Mayfield's "starting" job is purely cosmetic and intended to remove the weight of replacing Brady from Trask's shoulders, and that Todd Bowles already has plans to make the switch after the team's Week 5 bye if the Bucs get off to a poor start to the season. Either way, unless Rachaad White is a lot better than he looked as a rookie (or Sean Tucker shoves White aside emphatically), this could be a very one-dimensional offense in 2023.

Once again, the stage seems to be set for the Vikings to be one of the most exciting teams in the NFL. Note that I didn't say successful – there's no way they repeat last season's record in one-score games – but a defense that still looks very sketchy, combined with Kirk Cousins in a contract year, has the potential to create a lot of barn burners. With Alexander Mattison replacing Dalvin Cook as the lead back, this is now fully Justin Jefferson's team, and he gets a new Robin to his Batman in Jordan Addison, who immediately become my favorite player when it came out that the reason he told the cop he was speeding was because his dog was having a medical emergency. Add in T.J. Hockenson and his fat new contract, and Cousins could be headed for a career year as he keeps having to answer every time the defense lets someone waltz into the end zone.

The Skinny

TB injuries: RB Chase Edmonds (questionable, undisclosed), WR Evans (questionable, groin), WR Russell Gage (IR, knee)
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

TB DFS targets: Evans $6,300 DK / $6,500 FD and Godwin $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (MIN 32nd in catches allowed, 32nd in receiving yards allowed vs. WR in 2022)
MIN DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN was eighth in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 62.5 percent; TB was 26th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

The Scoop White scrapes together 60 yards. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and two TDs, hitting Evans and Trey Palmer. Mattison gets held to 60 yards as well. Cousins fires up 290 yards and two touchdowns, finding Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and Hockenson. Vikings 23-14

Tennessee (+3.5) at New Orleans, o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Is the reign of King Henry coming to an end? Sure, Derrick Henry topped 1,500 rushing yards for the third time in his career last year and had a career-best season as a pass catcher, and sure, he led the NFL in broken tackles – his 35 were actually a career high... wait, where was I going with this? Oh, right. Henry's average yards per carry after contact was a half-yard lower than it was in 2020, before he hurt his foot, and his overall YPC a full yard lower. The mileage is piling up, and the 29-year-old is slowly surely becoming more of a volume compiler than an elite per-play RB. The Titans will probably ride him until the wheels fall off, but the drafting of Will Levis and the signing of DeAndre Hopkins is at least a sign the front office is thinking about life without Henry as the offense's centerpiece.

The Saints, on the other hand, were more than willing to shake things up in the offseason. In signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal, New Orleans said they were willing to bet his 2022 regression had more to do with Josh McDaniels than the QB's skills – and frankly, that's a pretty reasonable wager given McDaniels' track record as a head coach. Long-time Saints OC Pete Carmichael will try to help mold him into a passable facsimile of Drew Brees, and a return to form and full health for Michael Thomas to partner with Chris Olave downfield would help a lot in that regard. With Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three games, a lot's going to be resting on Carr's shoulders right out of the gate.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: EDGE Harold Landry (questionable, abdomen)
NO injuries: RB Alvin Kamara (out, suspension), RB Kendre Miller (questionable, hamstring), WR Rashid Shaheed (questionable, groin), WR Tre'Quan Smith (doubtful, groin)

TEN DFS targets: none
NO DFS targets: Carr $5,300 DK / $7,000 FD (TEN 32nd in passing yards allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed vs. QB in 2022), Olave $6,500 DK / $7,300 FD and Thomas $5,100 DK / $6,000 FD (TEN 31st in catches allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed, t-30th in receiving TDs allowed vs. WR in 2022), Juwan Johnson $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN t-29th in catches allowed, 32nd in receiving yards allowed vs. TE in 2022)

TEN DFS fades: Ryan Tannehill $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (NO first in passing yards allowed vs. QB in 2022), Chigoziem Okonkwo $3,800 DK / $5,100 FD (NO first in catches allowed, first in receiving yards allowed vs. TE in 2022)
NO DFS fades: Jamaal Williams $5,100 DK / $6,800 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards allowed, t-second in rushing TDs allowed vs. RB in 2022)

Key stat: TEN was sixth in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 64.3 percent; NO was sixth in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

The Scoop Henry produces 80 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill throws for 210 yards and a TD to Hopkins. Williams leads the NO backfield with 60 yards. Carr throws for 230 yards and a score to Johnson, and winds up the winner when Tyrann Mathieu returns an INT to the end zone. Saints 20-17

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (+3), o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Niners narrowly averted a crisis with the 11th-hour signing of Nick Bosa, and last year's sack leader should be on the field Week 1 to help buttress the defense against taking too big a step backwards after former DC DeMeco Ryans left for the top job in Houston. I do find it interesting that Kyle Shanahan brought in Steve Wilks to be the new coordinator rather than promoting from within, and there's probably some upside to adding a fresh voice to the room, but Wilks' prior stints in that job in Carolina and Cleveland didn't produce elite units. With Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance now elsewhere, Shanahan has also fully committed to Brock Purdy as his quarterback, a remarkable ascension for a guy who was, I'm not sure if you've heard this little trivia nugget, the very last pick in the 2022 draft. Purdy's rookie campaign also ended with surgery on his throwing elbow, so that could mean a bigger dose of Christian McCaffrey than expected early on, but if he's allowed to sling it, he showed last year he could be a perfect fit for Shanahan's scheme. George Kittle certainly thinks so after hauling in seven TDs over the last four games of the2022 regular season.

The Steelers also trot on a second-year QB for this one, but despite being taken 242 picks earlier in the draft, there might be more question marks around Kenny Pickett than there are around Purdy. Sure, there's also a lot of optimism for a Year 2 breakout, but I'm not sure I see it. Regardless of what you think about his moxie and football IQ and supporting cast, a 7:9 TD:INT in his first 13 NFL games looks a lot more like a future bus driver than Ben Roethlisberger's true heir. That could be fine for Pittsburgh as a whole, as the T.J. Watt-led defense should be its usual stout self, and the offensive line should be better able to make holes for Najee Harris, but that's not a game plan that needs 3,500 yards and 25 TDs out of its QB.

The Skinny

SF injuries: TE Kittle (questionable, undisclosed), K Jake Moody (questionable, quadriceps)
PIT injuries: DE Cameron Heyward (questionable, undisclosed)

SF DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
PIT DFS fades: Harris $6,100 DK / $6,700 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards allowed vs. RB in 2022)

Key stat: SF was sixth in third-down conversions in 2022 at 45.0 percent; PIT was 18th in third-down defense at 39.4 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop McCaffrey springs for 100 combined yards and a receiving score. Purdy throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Kittle as the duo picks up where they left off. Harris grinds out 70 yards. Pickett throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to George Pickens but gets sacked four times, twice by Bosa. 49ers 23-13

Arizona (+6) at Washington, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

We all know what the plan is here – Collapse for Caleb – and the Cardinals spent a good portion of their offseason getting rid of players that might interfere with that plan, or at least didn't seem to have a role in it. There's no timeline yet for Kyler Murray to return from his knee surgery, and you can be sure the team isn't going to rush it, but in the meantime career backup Joshua Dobbs will battle with rookie fifth-round pick (and blessing to headline writers everywhere) Clayton Tune for the starting QB job on an offense that doesn't offer much beyond Marquise Brown and brittle lead back James Conner. There are also growing questions about the, err, temperament of new head coach Jonathan Gannon, although Philly fans are pretty sure they already know the answers on that front. Budda Baker looking for an exit from this potential circus suddenly makes a lot more sense, and I have to wonder if Gannon's even going to last until 2024 to get a shot at riding Caleb Williams' coattails. If 2021's most compulsively watchable soap opera was Urban Meyer's disintegration and 2022's ratings winner was the Nathaniel Hackett Show, 2023 seems poised to be Gannonpalooza for fans of train wrecks.

Eric Bieniemy apparently got tired of waiting for a chance to be a head coach, so instead he went to Washington to try and achieve something out from under Andy Reid's enormous shadow. He's got some interesting pieces to work with in the Commanders' offense, but second-year QB Sam Howell is most assuredly no Mahomes. The key to the team's fortunes this season will likely rest, once again, on the front seven. If Chase Young can somehow stay healthy and look like the player the franchise thought it was getting in 2020 when they made him the second overall pick, Washington's defense might just be a match for the offenses in Philly and Dallas.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (PUP, knee), WR Brown (questionable, hamstring), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, knee)
WAS injuries: WR Terry McLaurin (questionable, toe), DE Chase Young (questionable, neck)

ARI DFS targets: none
WAS DFS targets: Antonio Gibson $5,200 DK / $5,800 FD (ARI 30th in catches allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed, t-29th in receiving TDs allowed to RB in 2022), Logan Thomas $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD (ARI 32nd in catches allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed, 32nd in TDs allowed vs. TE in 2022)

ARI DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI was t-25th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 35.2 percent; WAS was first in third-down defense at 31.9 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 35-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Conner gains 60 yards. Dobbs gets the start at quarterback for ARI and throws for under 200 yards, but he does manage to find Trey McBride for a TD in between getting sacked five times. Gibson leads the WAS backfield with 90 combined yards, while Brian Robinson adds 50 rushing yards. Howell throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Jahan Dotson. Commanders 17-13

SUNDAY LATE SLATE

Green Bay (+2.5) at Chicago, o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The torch has finally been passed to Jordan Love, but the Packers mostly (and smartly) kept the offense intact around him rather than tearing everything down after Aaron Rodgers' departure. Love figures to lean heavily on his two-headed backfield, but he got another young receiving option in the draft in Luke Musgrave – early indications are that he'll be featured in a way no Green Bay tight end has been since at least Jimmy Graham, if not Jermichael Finley. I'm not predicting 90-plus targets for Musgrave in his first season, but he could have a significant role.

If the Year 3 leap is really a thing for mobile dual-threat QBs, then this should be Justin Fields SZN. It's no sure thing – he barely completed 60 percent of his passes last year, when he was even allowed to throw the ball – but Fields still posted a better mark than Josh Allen did in his second season. The front office's draft maneuvering also landed the Bears a legit No. 1 wideout for Fields in DJ Moore, something he didn't have in 2022. OC Luke Getsy's offense is likely to still be a run-first scheme, leaning on both Fields' legs and a backfield now headed by Khalil Herbert, but there's an awful lot of room for the QB's passing volume to grow if he shows he's ready for it.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Christian Watson (questionable, hamstring), WR Romeo Doubs (questionable, hamstring), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (questionable, groin)
CHI injuries: S Eddie Jackson (questionable, ankle), S Jaquan Brisker (questionable, groin)

GB DFS targets: Love $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (CHI 32nd in passing DVOA in 2022), Aaron Jones $6,300 DK / $7,200 FD and AJ Dillon $5,200 DK / $6,100 FD (CHI 30th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed vs. RB in 2022)
CHI DFS targets: Khalil Herbert $5,300 DK / $6,100 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA in 2022)

GB DFS fades: Musgrave $2,900 DK / $4,500 FD (CHI t-second in catches allowed, third in receiving yards allowed vs. TE in 2022)
CHI DFS fades: Cole Kmet $4,400 DK / $5,200 FD (GB t-second in catches allowed, second in receiving yards allowed vs. TE in 2022)

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 GB, average score 27-18 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. GB has won eight straight meetings and 14 of the last 15, but remember that the owner of the Bears now plays for the Jets. 
Key stat: CHI was 13th in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 56.0 percent; GB was 13th in red-zone defense at 53.7 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Jones leads the GB backfield with 80 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Love throws for 260 yards and a second TD to Watson. Herbert busts out for 90 yards and a score, while Fields runs for 60 and a TD of his own while throwing for 210 yards and a touchdown to Moore. Bears 24-21

Las Vegas (+3.5) at Denver, o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I find it hard to believe Jimmy G was Josh McDaniels' first choice, but after kicking Carr to the curb at the end of last season, that's who the head coach will have under center entering 2023. Garoppolo had his moments in San Francisco, to be sure, but he goes from a Shanahan offensive scheme built around getting the ball to guys who can do bad, bad things with it in open space to McDaniels' peculiar brand of hero ball, which seems to mostly involve chucking it up to Davante Adams and seeing what happens. Granted, it's Davante, so what happens is usually something good, but unless Hunter Renfrow gets possessed by the ghost of Julian Edelman, this still looks like a very narrow target tree, and an offense that might need a grumpy and contract extension-less Josh Jacobs to win another rushing title to stay competitive.

You have to give Sean Payton some credit for not taking the safest job in his return to coaching. The Broncos are coming off a 2022 disaster that can't solely be written off to Nathaniel Hackett being in over his head as head coach. Denver brought in Russell Wilson to let him cook, and instead he turned the steak into charcoal and dumped all the salt into the pasta sauce instead of the water. Payton should be able to get better numbers out of Russ, and if Javonte Williams is back at 100 percent after his knee injury it will take a lot of pressure off the passing game, but the Seahawks' haul from the trade currently stands at their starting left tackle (Charles Cross), a starting cornerback (Devon Witherspoon), their starting tight end (Noah Fant), a couple developing young edge rushers and various other depth pieces. If Wilson has another bad season, it could wind up being a legendarily awful deal. On the other hand, if he and Payton lead them to a wild-card spot (hard to see them doing any better than that in Patrick Mahomes' AFC West), all will probably be forgiven.

The Skinny

LV injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DEN injuries: WR Jerry Jeudy (questionable, hamstring), WR Tim Patrick (IR, Achilles)

LV DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 LV, average score 26-19 LV, average margin of victory eight points. LV has swept all three season series since relocating from Oakland.
Key stat: DEN was 32nd in third-down conversions in 2022 at 29.1 percent; LV was 26th in third-down defense at 41.7 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 10-15 mph wind, 30-35 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop Jacobs looks sluggish and gains just 50 yards. Garoppolo throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Adams and Austin Hooper. Williams splits snaps with Samaje Perine but still leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Courtland Sutton. Raiders 20-16

Miami (+2.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 51 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Aside from rookie RB De'Von Achane and his 4.32 40-time at the Combine, the Dolphins' offense features the same personnel that made it such an exciting unit in 2022. As such, 2023 success will come down to two main factors – whether Tua Tagovailoa can stay in the lineup, and whether defensive coordinators find an answer to Mike McDaniel's scheme. Even if they do, Tyreek Hill will still be pretty uncoverable, and Jaylen Waddle's no slouch either. This is an offense designed to run past you though, not through you, and I'm not exactly sure what defenses can do about it given the track team Miami's assembled.

As for the Chargers, Brandon Staley continues to do less with more, so it's kind of perfect that Kellen Moore is the team's new OC. Moore's units in Dallas produced plenty of points but seemed to get very predictable and come up short when it mattered most. His new roster is basically an upgraded version of his old one – Justin Herbert's better than Dak Prescott, and Austin Ekeler's more proven than Tony Pollard – so it should be a pretty smooth transition. The Bolts' fortunes probably depend more on the other side of the ball, though. Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson played a combined 10 games last year, and if they're both healthy and playing at their usual level, the Chargers' defense could be one of the biggest surprises of the season.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (IR, abdomen), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, oblique), CB Jalen Ramsey (IR, knee)
LAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

MIA DFS targets: none
LAC DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: Dolphins DST $2,500 DK / $3,300 FD (t-30th in takeaways, LAC t-fifth in giveaways in 2022)
LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC were eighth in third-down conversions in 2022 at 43.6 percent; MIA was t-24th in third-down defense at 41.6 percent

The Scoop Raheem Mostert runs for 70 yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 270 yards and a score to Hill. Ekeler compiles 80 scrimmage yards and catches a TD pass. Herbert throws for 290 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Mike Williams and Gerald Everett. Chargers 24-23

Philadelphia at New England (+5), o/u 45
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Super Bowl hangover doesn't really seem to be a thing any more – four of the last six runners-up have won double-digit games the following season, including the 2022 Bengals and Kansas City in 2021 – and the Eagles did maybe the exact right amount of roster shuffling to avoid getting stale without disrupting a successful formula too much. The biggest changes came in the backfield. Miles Sanders is gone, replaced by the duo of D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, presumably with the idea that between the two of them, at least one will be healthy for all 17 games. If not, there's always playoff hero Kenneth Gainwell. Who's carrying the rock matters less than Jalen Hurts continuing to blossom into an elite QB and launching balls to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith from behind of the league's most consistently strong offensive lines. The defense is also still chock full of talent at all three levels, to the point that Derek Barnett wants out so he can find a bigger role elsewhere ahead of free agency. It's hard to see the Eagles being anything other than one of the top teams in the NFL again.

That's a statement you can no longer say about the Patriots. Bill Belichick's reputation is pretty unassailable at this point, but there had to be some folks wondering if the game had passed him by last year when he hung young QB Mac Jones out to dry by saddling him with a clown car full of coaches and stalling his development. Bringing back Bill O'Brien, who flailed pretty spectacularly as the head honcho in Houston, is an improvement and should help get Jones back on course, but it's not a sign things in Foxborough are about to head in a new direction. New England's coming off its second losing season in the last three after an incredible 17 straight years with double-digit wins, and unless they scrounge up the next Tom Brady late in the 2024 draft, the slow erosion seems likely to continue.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
NE injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, knee), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR, shoulder)

PHI DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: Mac Jones $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (PHI first in passing DVOA, second in passing yards allowed vs. QB in 2022)

Key stat: PHI was third in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 67.8 percent; NE was 22nd in red-zone defense at 58.0 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 10-15 mph wind, 45-55 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Swift leads the PHI backfield with 90 combined yards and a TD. Hurts throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns while running in a third, finding Brown and Dallas Goedert in the end zone. Rhamondre Stevenson churns out 70 yards and a score. Jones throws for 220 yards and a TD to Kendrick Bourne. Eagles 31-20

L.A. Rams (+6) at Seattle, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Is this the Bobby Wagner Bowl, or another chance for the Bobby Wagner Curse to strike? The team employing the star linebacker has somehow lost five straight meetings in this rivalry – Seattle had lost three straight beginning with the Rams' wild-card win in the 2020 playoffs, but when Wagner jumped ship last season, Los Angeles promptly collapsed. Now he's back in Seattle, which I'm sure isn't ominous at all for the 2023 Seahawks. The Rams may not have stopped collapsing anyway. Cooper Kupp is sidelined again, and last year's 32nd-ranked offense (by total yards, anyway) has nobody that can come close to filling that void. Matthew Stafford had trouble staying healthy last season too, and Cam Akers, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee are nice complementary pieces at best. Even Aaron Donald wasn't on pace for his usual numbers last year before he too got hurt, and the defense around him is looking pretty barren.

Seattle's run to the playoffs came thanks to an incredible comeback from Geno Smith, although I'm not sure it can really be called a comeback if he'd never arrived in the first place. The 2013 second-round pick topped his previous career high in passing yards by more than 1,200, and he threw more TDs in 2022 than he had in his two best prior years combined – and those were his first two seasons in the league. The Seahawks bolstered the offense around him with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet, and while it's always possible Smith just caught lightning in a bottle, he certainly looked like the real deal.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: WR Kupp (out, hamstring)
SEA injuries: WR Smith-Njigba (questionable, wrist), LB Jordyn Brooks (questionable, knee), CB Witherspoon (questionable, hamstring)

LAR DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 LAR, average score 25-21 LAR, average margin of victory seven points. Neither team has scored more than 27 points in the regular season in this rivalry since 2019, with the average score the last three years being 20-18 LAR.
Key stat: SEA was 20th in third-down conversions in 2022 at 37.8 percent; LAR were 22nd in third-down defense at 40.4 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Akers collects 60 yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 230 yards and a score to Jefferson. Kenneth Walker leads the SEA backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Smith throws for 260 yards and TDs to Tyler Lockett and Charbonnet. Seahawks 24-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Cowboys sent a lot of mixed fantasy signals in the offseason. They let Kellen Moore go to the Chargers, with Mike McCarthy saying he'd take over play-calling while bringing in Brian Schottenheimer as the OC. So they're going to run the ball more, right? Well, they also let Ezekiel Elliott walk and didn't sign another big back, leaving Tony Pollard as the unquestioned top guy, and the 'biggest' addition to the backfield was pint-sized ball of electricity Deuce Vaughn. Then Dallas went and got Brandin Cooks from the Texans. So, they're going to pass more, right? Your guess is as good as mine. Regardless of what happens on offense though, the defense should again be elite behind QB hunter Micah Parsons and a DC in Dan Quinn who always seems to put his players in positions to shine. This is a team that seems capable of scoring a lot of points and making a lot of splash plays on defense, and that's generally a pretty successful formula. Whether it's a Super Bowl formula in a conference with the Eagles and 49ers is another question entirely.

As for their NFC East "rivals" (although given the recent history between these two teams, "punching bags" seems a better description), the Giants joined the Vikings, Dolphins and Steelers as teams last year that posted winning records despite a negative point differential, which is either a testament to Brian Daboll's coaching and motivational skills, or a sign the bottom's going to fall out in 2023. The offense added Darren Waller and brought back both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, which didn't look like it might happen at times this offseason, but the receivers group is a six-headed mess where nobody in particular stands out. Really, it was Wink Martindale's defense that was the key to last season's success, not the offense, so Big Blue smartly focused more on getting him help on that side of the ball, adding Bobby Okereke and Isaiah Simmons to the linebacking corps.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: S Donovan Wilson (questionable, calf)
NYG injuries: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, knee)

DAL DFS targets: Pollard $7,500 DK / $8,400 FD (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2022), Cowboys DST $3,600 DK / $4,500 FD (first in takeaways, t-third in sacks in 2022)
NYG DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-1 DAL, average score 30-20 DAL, average margin of victory 11 points. DAL has won four straight meetings and 11 of the last 12, but the lone loss was in MetLife Stadium (23-19 in Week 17 of the 2020 season)
Key stat: DAL was first in red-zone conversions in 2022 at 71.4 percent; NYG were fifth in red-zone defense at 49.2 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 55-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Barkley picks up 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Jones throws for 240 yards and a TD to (rolls die) Darius Slayton. Pollard responds with 120 combined yards and two touchdowns. Dak Prescott throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Cowboys 31-23

THURSDAY

Detroit (+7) at Kansas City, o/u 52.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Welcome to another wacky NFL season, where in all likelihood, at least a dozen things you thought were locks and stone-cold certainties will be shattered by mid-October. Eagle-eyed, long-time readers will notice that my career and recent prognosticating track record is missing from the bottom of the article. This isn't (entirely) out of shame; I wasn't happy with the game scores my little jury-rigged algorithm was spitting out, so rather than tinkering with it again, I scrapped it and built a new one from scratch. As such, the old records just aren't relevant any more. Of course, until we have some usable 2023 numbers, all the predicted scores will be based on 2022 stats – accounting for things like QBs switching teams, of course – so take them with a larger grain of salt than normal. This is all just for entertainment purposes anyway, right?

Right out of the gate, we have a big cloud looming over the opening Thursday contest, as the defending champs could be without one of their biggest weapons on each side of the ball. Chris Jones' holdout has no end in sight, while Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice. I've been telling anyone who would listen this preseason that Kelce was actually undervalued in drafts, even with a first-round ADP, because he was so far ahead of the pack at his position. If you use a tier system to rank players, not only was he in a tier of his own at the top, you could have justifiably argued the second tier should just be empty to represent the gap between him and Mark Andrews, which would make the T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller types actually Tier 4 players, relatively speaking. No one else at any other position came close to that degree of superiority. Of course, that's all out the window if Kelce misses significant time. Sigh.

Anyway, the Lions come into this one with a lot of hype as everyone climbs on the Dan Campbell bandwagon, but their rebuilt secondary faces a massive test right out of the gate against Patrick Mahomes and his grab bag of talented but unproven wideouts. There's also the question of whether the offense can repeat a somewhat ultra-efficient offensive performance. The team was second in trips to the red zone and fourth in RZ conversions, thanks at least in part to an incredible season from Jamaal Williams, who's now in New Orleans. The only team ahead of them in both categories? Kansas City of course (first and second, respectively.)

As for last season's top dogs, Andy Reid's brain trust finally lost Eric Bieniemy, but has replaced him at offensive coordinator with a repatriated Matt Nagy, who was also OC for Mahomes' rookie season before taking the head coaching job in Chicago, and then KC's QB coach last year. It should (mostly) be business as usual for the league's most consistently elite offense, Kelce's availability notwithstanding.

The Skinny

DET injuries: WR Jameson Williams (out, suspension)
KC injuries: WR Kadarius Toney (questionable, knee), TE Kelce (question, knee), DT Jones (out, contract)

DET DFS targets: Jahmyr Gibbs $6,100 DK / $6,000 FD (KC 32nd in catches allowed, 29th in receiving yards allowed vs. RB in 2022)
KC DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Jerick McKinnon $5,100 DK / $5,400 FD (DET second in catches allowed, first in receiving yards allowed, t-first in receiving TDs allowed vs. RB in 2022)

Key stat: KC was second in third-down conversions in 2022 at 48.7 percent; DET was 30th in third-down defense at 45.1 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Gibbs manages 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD in his NFL debut, while David Montgomery gets held to 40 yards. Jared Goff fires up 280 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Sam LaPorta. Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 80 yards and a score. Patrick Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Noah Gray, while running in a touchdown of his own. Kansas City 38-27