NFL Game Previews: Rams-Buccaneers Matchup

L.A. Rams (+4) at Tampa Bay, o/u 48.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

These two teams have very similar reputations, and are in very similar spots in their divisions, coming into this game. Both have tough, stingy defenses that have a claim to being the best in the league, sitting second and eighth in points allowed per game and first and third in yards per play allowed, with the Rams out front in both categories. Both have offenses with big reputations that they don't quite live up to at times — Tampa's sixth in points per game but only 14th in yards per play, while LA's tied for 18th and 10th in those categories. The Rams are a half-game back of the Seahawks for the NFC West lead after Seattle's win Thursday; the Bucs are a half-game back of the Saints in the NFC South, though having already lost the season series to New Orleans, merely tying them in the final standings won't be good enough. Basically, there's a lot on the line for both clubs, even beyond the bragging rights between the two defenses. There's even symmetry in how they got to their records: the Rams are 6-0 when they hold the opposition to less than 20 points, and 0-3 when they don't; the Bucs are 7-0 when they score at least 25 points, 0-3 when they don't. As such, it's the battle between Tom Brady and his star-studded array of receivers, and Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the Rams defense, that will take center stage.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: K Kai Forbath (IR, ankle)

TB injuries: LG Ali Marpet (questionable, concussion), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, knee)

LAR DFS targets: Tyler Higbee $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (TB 27th in DVOA vs. TE)

TB DFS targets: Buccaneers DST $3,600 DK / $4,100 FD (fourth in INT%, second in takeaways)

LAR DFS fades: Jared Goff $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (TB first in passing DVOA), Darrell Henderson $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (TB second in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB), Cooper Kupp $6,500 DK / $6,800 FD (TB second in DVOA vs. WR1)

TB DFS fades: Tom Brady $6,500 DK / $7,900 FD (LAR first in YPA allowed, third in passing yards per game allowed, first in TD% allowed), Antonio Brown $5,700 DK / $6,200 FD (LAR first in DVOA vs. deep throws)

Key stat: TB is seventh in red-zone conversions at 70.0 percent; LAR are ninth in red-zone defense at 57.7 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Cam Akers leads the LAR backfield with 50 yards, but Malcolm Brown vultures a short TD. Goff throws for 260 yards and a score to Robert Woods. Ronald Jones gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Brady throws for 230 yards and TDs to Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski. Buccaneers, 24-23

Cincinnati (+1.5) at Washington, o/u 46/5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While the Bengals have been able to play spoiler on occasion — their win over the Titans, and tie with the Eagles, could loom large in the eventual playoff picture — they're still well-positioned to add some help for Joe Burrow at the top of next year's draft. Hopefully for the rookie QB's sake, that help comes along the offensive line, as only Carson Wentz has been sacked more often this season than Burrow heading into Week 11. It wouldn't be a surprise if he zoomed past Wentz after this matchup either, as Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan et al get after him. Ron Rivera's first year in charge with Washington hasn't exactly been a resounding success (they'd be picking higher in the draft than Cincy if the season ended now), but it won't take much of a hot streak to win the NFC East, and Alex Smith might be just the guy to light a little spark under the team. It's incredible that he waited until coming back from his career-threatening leg fractures to post the first back-to-back 300-yard games of his career — remember, he led an Andy Reid offense for five years in Kansas City — but Smith has never done things the easy way. Whether he can make it three in a row might depend more on what kind of field position the Washington pass rush hands him than the need to keep up with Burrow in a battle of first overall picks.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (out, foot), RG Alex Redmond (questionable, biceps)

WAS injuries: WR Dontrelle Inman (questionable, hamstring), LT Geron Charles (IR, knee), LT Cornelius Lucas (out, ankle), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, groin)

CIN DFS targets: Drew Sample $2,700 DK / $4,600 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

WAS DFS targets: Alex Smith $5,300 DK / $6,600 FD (CIN 29th in passing DVOA, 31st in TD% allowed), Steven Sims $3,000 DK / $4,600 FD (CIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Washington DST $2,900 DK / $4,100 FD (second in sack rate, fifth in INT%, CIN 25th in sack rate allowed)

CIN DFS fades: Joe Burrow $5,500 DK / $7,700 FD (WAS fifth in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: CIN is 26th in red-zone conversions at 54.8 percent; WAS is seventh in red-zone defense at 56.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Giovani Bernard picks up 60 combined yards. Burrow throws for 220 yards and TDs to Tyler Boyd and Sample but gets sacked five times. Antonio Gibson gains 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while J.D. McKissic adds 60 yards. Smith throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Terry McLaurin and Sims (Steven). Washington, 24-20

Atlanta (+5) at New Orleans, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Falcons headed into last week's bye 3-1 under Raheem Morris, and they've only gotten healthier as Calvin Ridley is set to rejoin the offense after sitting out Week 9. While Matt Ryan and the passing game are always dangerous, it's been improvement on the other side of the ball that's sparked the turnaround — after getting routinely torched earlier in the year, they haven't allowed an opponent to hit for 30 points in five consecutive games, though giving up 27 to Drew Lock's Broncos isn't exactly stingy. They could be facing a very different offensive game plan from New Orleans than they might have been expecting, though. With Drew Brees out, Sean Payton has elected to start Taysom Hill  instead of Jameis Winston, suggesting he's going to use a more option-style ground game than the usual short-strike passing game Brees had perfected, and which neither backup might be well suited for. Just so long as it doesn't cut into Alvin Kamara's volume, though, the Saints should be fine.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: DE Dante Fowler (out, hamstring/COVID)

NO injuries: CB Marshon Lattimore (questionable, abdomen)

ATL DFS targets: Russell Gage $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (NO 24th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS targets: Taysom Hill $4,800 DK / $4,500 FD (listed as TE) (ATL 30th in QB rating against, 30th in YPA allowed, 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 28th in TD% allowed), Jared Cook $4,100 DK / $6,100 FD (ATL 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

ATL DFS fades: Todd Gurley $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed)

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO is 12th in red-zone conversions at 65.0 percent; ATL is 31st in red-zone defense at 75.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NO, average score 26-25 NO, average margin of victory nine points. NO has won four of the last five meetings

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Gurley manages 60 yards. Ryan throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Ridley and Gage. Kamara piles up 120 combined yards and a score. Hill throws for 210 yards and a TD to Adam Trautman but also runs for 50 yards and a touchdown of his own. Saints, 27-23

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (+10), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Every week, it feels like I look at a soft matchup on paper for the undefeated Steelers and think, "This is the week James Conner gets right and they coast to a win on their running game and defense." And every week, they try that in the first half, only to get nowhere and abandon the ground game before Ben Roethlisberger is allowed to light it up. This week, I'm not falling for it, so expect huge numbers for Conner (or, who knows, maybe Anthony McFarland). We've seen this before from Pittsburgh in the past — Roethlisberger's twice attempted more than 600 passes in a season, and he's on pace for 594 this season — but it's still a little surprising to see Mike Tomlin risk it with a 38-year-old QB coming off elbow surgery, especially when he's seen the horror show his offense becomes without Ben under center. It's hard to argue with the results, though. Things are a little less set at quarterback in Jacksonville, but that's about what you'd expect from a 1-8 squad. Jake Luton's second NFL start didn't go so well, but the weather at Lambeau was nasty so the rookie had a good excuse. It'll be warmer in Duval this time around, but the Steelers defense will probably give him fits, especially if the Jags fall into an early hole and the pass rush can tee off. Jacksonville doesn't have the worst offensive line in the league, but they're far from the best (24th in sack rate allowed, 27th in raw sacks allowed), and while Luton isn't a statue in the pocket, he's not Josh Allen (the other one, not his teammate) either. He's been sacked five times in his two starts, and it wouldn't be a huge shock if Pittsburgh matched or topped that all on their own.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: none

JAC injuries: QB Gardner Minshew (questionable, thumb), WR Laviska Shenault (out, hamstring), CB Sidney Jones (questionable, Achilles)

PIT DFS targets: Ben Roethlisberger $6,700 DK / $8,000 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in QB rating against, 31st in YPA allowed, 29th in TD% allowed), Chase Claypool $6,100 DK / $6,400 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Steelers DST $4,600 DK / $5,000 FD (first in sack rate, third in INT%, first in takeaways)

JAC DFS targets: DJ Chark $5,700 DK / $6,200 FD (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)

PIT DFS fades: none

JAC DFS fades: Jake Luton $5,000 DK / $6,500 FD (PIT second in passing DVOA, second in QB rating against), Tyler Eifert $2,700 DK / $4,600 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE), Jaguars DST $2,100 DK / $3,300 FD (32nd in sack rate, PIT second in sack rate allowed)

Key stat: PIT is sixth in third-down conversions at 46.9 percent; JAC is 19th in third-down defense at 42.3 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner gains 60 yards. Roethlisberger throws for 290 yards and three scores, finding Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Eric Ebron. James Robinson puts together 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Luton throws for 220 yards and a TD to Chark but gets sacked four times and picked off twice, with T.J. Watt returning a Luton fumble to the house. Steelers, 34-17

New England at Houston (+2), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Are the Patriots headed for their usual second-half surge? They've won consecutive games, and while a narrow win over the Jets is almost like a moral defeat, they did what they needed to do last week against the Ravens. We've seen this play out time and again over the years from Bill Belichick's crew — a first half in which they stayed afloat but looked vulnerable at times, causing predictions that the dynasty was finally coming to end, only for the steamroller to get into gear once he had enough game film to get a bead on what other coaching staffs were up to. The hole they dug was a little deeper in 2020, but at 4-5 the Pats are still on the fringe of the wild-card race in the AFC, and the pieces are coming together as the defense seems to be getting stronger, and Damien Harris' emergence (three 100-yard performances in six games) has settled down the backfield committee. All that said ... some of the numbers they've put up through nine games have been awful, and at least for now, their rebound seems fragile. Of course, the Texans can make any opponent look like world-beaters. They're 2-3 since canning Bill O'Brien, but those wins came against the Jaguars and they haven't downed anyone else all year. The three losses under Romeo Crennel show a bit of promise if you squint, though — they got torn up by Aaron Rodgers, sure, but a three-point loss in brutal conditions in Cleveland has plenty of asterisks, and they took the Titans to overtime. Deshaun Watson at least gets his every week if he isn't contending with a gale, and he usually has to given how soft the Houston defense has been.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Harris (questionable, ankle), WR N'Keal Harry (questionable, shoulder), LG Joe Thuney (questionable, ankle), RG Shaq Mason (questionable, calf), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, ankle), K Nick Folk (questionable, back), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, groin), CB Stephon Gilmore (questionable, knee)

HOU injuries: LT Laremy Tunsil (questionable, illness), LG Senio Kelemete (questionable, concussion)

NE DFS targets: Cam Newton $6,200 DK / $7,600 FD (HOU 32nd in QB rating against, 27th in TD% allowed), Damien Harris $5,700 DK / $5,800 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed)

HOU DFS targets: Deshaun Watson $6,500 DK / $7,700 FD (NE 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Duke Johnson $5,400 DK / $6,000 FD (NE 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Brandin Cooks $5,200 DK / $6,100 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Randall Cobb $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (NE 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NE DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: Darren Fells $2,900 DK / $5,000 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: NE is 24th in red-zone conversions at 56.7 percent; HOU is 14th in red-zone defense at 60.5 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Harris runs for 90 yards. Newton throws for 230 yards and a TD to Jakobi Meyers, adding 40 yards on the ground. Johnson gains 80 yards and a score. Watson throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Cooks while running in the eventual game-winning score. Texans, 21-16

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Cleveland, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Laughably, the Eagles are still out front in the NFC East at 3-5-1, but their only win outside the division came against an injury-ravaged 49ers squad with no pass rush and C.J. Beathard getting the start at quarterback. They're coughing up 30 points a game to non-divisional opponents versus 21 a game to the the rest of the ragged NFC East, but it's the offense that's really been letting them down. Even with Travis Fulgham being one of the surprises of 2020, Philly's one of only three teams in the league who has yet to score 30 points in a game, joining Washington and (of course) the Jets. Maybe getting the offensive line back to nearly full strength will help Carson Wentz figure things out. He has as many multi-INT games this season as multi-TD games, and he's topped a 7.0 YPA only twice, leaving him with a miserable mark of 6.1 for the year — 31st in the league among qualified QBs, and ahead of only Nick Foles and Sam Darnold. The Browns have a much better record at 6-3 but may be in worse shape in the playoff race, given that they play in a real division. Their current homestand wraps up this week with the best weather they've had yet, which in this case means it'll probably only be raining, but with Nick Chubb back the offense can get back to grounding and pounding and not worry so much about what kind of havoc the conditions might play with their passing game. The defense will be missing Myles Garrett, though, and might need Olivier Vernon to come out of hibernation.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: none

CLE injuries: RG Wyatt Teller (questionable, calf), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, COVID), K Cody Parkey (questionable, COVID), DE Garrett (out, COVID)

PHI DFS targets: Alshon Jeffery $3,700 DK / $4,700 FD (CLE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb $7,000 DK / $8,100 FD (PHI 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed), KhaDarel Hodge $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (PHI 29th in DVOA vs. deep throws), Austin Hooper $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (PHI 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: Jalen Reagor $4,300 DK / $5,600 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2)

CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is sixth in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; PHI is 24th in red-zone defense at 69.0 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, 6-10 mph wind, 70-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Miles Sanders picks up 70 yards and a score. Wentz throws for 260 yards and a TD to Jeffery but gets picked off twice. Chubb racks up 130 yards and two touchdowns, while Kareem Hunt adds 70 combined yards. Baker Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two TDs, finding Rashard Higgins and Hodge. Browns, 31-20

Detroit (+1.5) at Carolina, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

There's a lot of star power missing from this one. On the Lions' side, D'Andre Swift suffered a concussion somewhere between last Sunday's 149-yard eruption against Washington and practice Wednesday, and he'll miss a chance at a repeat performance. Matthew Stafford, who's playing through a thumb injury in his throwing hand, will also be without Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola. Carolina's not in much better shape, as Christian McCaffrey headed right back to the shelf after injuring his shoulder in his return from an ankle sprain, and Teddy Bridgewater could be at less than 100 percent healthy behind a banged-up offensive line. There's almost no point in making a prediction where you can't be sure either starting QB will be able to finish the game, but that's never stopped me before. Fortunately for the offensive coordinators, both teams have great difficulty slowing down opposition RBs, so the replacement backs — whether it's the Adrian Peterson/Kerryon Johnson duo for Detroit, or Mike Davis for Carolina — could see big workloads in an effort to keep their quarterbacks on the field.

The Skinny

DET injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, thumb), RB Swift (out, concussion), WR Golladay (out, hip), WR Amendola (out, hip), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (questionable, foot)

CAR injuries: QB Bridgewater (questionable, knee), RB McCaffrey (out, shoulder), LT Russell Okung (doubtful, calf), RG John Miller (doubtful, knee), LB Tahir Whitehead (questionable, ribs), CB Donta Jackson (doubtful, toe), CB Rasul Douglas (questionable, ankle)

DET DFS targets: Kerryon Johnson $4,000 DK / $4,800 FD (CAR 28th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS targets: Mike Davis $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD (DET 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS fades: none

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET is 23rd in red-zone conversions at 58.3 percent; CAR is 12th in red-zone defense at 58.5 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Johnson leads the DET backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD, while Peterson adds 60 yards and a score. Stafford throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Marvin Jones. Davis hits for 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving, while Curtis Samuel also runs in a touchdown. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and a second score to DJ Moore. Panthers, 28-24 

Tennessee (+6.5) at Baltimore, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At 6-3, the Titans are still tied for top spot in the AFC South, but they seem to be headed in the wrong direction — they've dropped three of their last four games, the last two by double digits, and last week's big loss to the Colts does them no favors if the division comes down to tiebreakers. There's no one culprit either. The offense, which scored at least 31 points in four consecutive games during their early winning streak, hasn't topped 24 points in Tennessee's last four games, while the defense has surrendered at least 31 in three of the last five, though poor special teams play gets a share of that. Derrick Henry's still neck and neck with Dalvin Cook for the rushing crown though, and Ryan Tannehill remains dangerous when a battered offensive line can give him a little time, so that half of the equation could snap back into form at any moment. The Ravens have the same record and similar recent struggles, and a three-game deficit to the Steelers is probably too much to overcome in the AFC North. They have the look of a gatekeeper team this year, losing to Pittsburgh, Kansas City and a potentially resurgent New England squad but beating all the other contenders, pretenders and also-rans they've faced. Lamar Jackson's well off his 2019 pace both through the air and on the ground, but with the defense in first place in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per play allowed, he doesn't need to repeat his MVP campaign for the team to make the playoffs.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Adam Humphries (out, concussion), LG Rodger Saffold (out, ankle), C Ben Jones (questionable, knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney, (out, knee), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, knee)

BAL injuries: DE Calais Campbell (doubtful, calf), CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, ankle)

TEN DFS targets: Corey Davis $4,800 DK / $5,900 FD (BAL 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)

BAL DFS targets: Mark Andrews $4,900 DK / $6,500 FD (TEN 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

TEN DFS fades: Derrick Henry $8,000 DK / $8,200 FD (BAL third in rushing DVOA), Cameron Batson $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR3)

BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is second in red-zone conversions at 76.5 percent; BAL is 32nd in red-zone defense at 76.2 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry manages 70 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill throws for 260 yards and TDs to Davis and Jonnu Smith. Mark Ingram leads the BAL backfield with 60 yards, but Gus Edwards bangs in a short touchdown. Jackson throws for 240 yards and two scores to Andrews while also running in a TD of his own. Ravens, 31-27

N.Y. Jets (+8.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Sam Darnold likely remains sidelined once again, even coming out of a bye week, but the Jets' quest for the first overall pick seems to be in good hands with Joe Flacco. The veteran QB did toss three TDs against the Patriots last time out, but it was the first time in three starts this season he'd posted a YPA higher than 5.9. Other than Darnold the team is mostly healthy, though, especially in a receiving corps that is the most talented part of the roster, and if any team is capable of screwing up a winless campaign for the Jets it's a Chargers outfit that specializes in inexplicable losses. Justin Herbert continues his impressive rookie run, throwing for multiple TDs and/or 300-plus yards in his first eight NFL starts en route to a 19:6 TD:INT and 7.8 YPA ... and he has just one win (over Jacksonville) to show for it, along with two overtime losses and three other losses by a single score. That's right: the Bolts' seven losses this season have been by an average of 4.6 points, and none by more than eight. On paper they should be able to win this one going away, especially with Joey Bosa back in action, but if there's one thing Anthony Lynn has proven he's good at as a head coach, it's playing down to the level of his competition.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Darnold (doubtful, shoulder), K Sam Ficken (questionable, groin), CB Bless Austin (questionable, neck)

LAC injuries: none

NYJ DFS targets: Breshad Perriman $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (LAC 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS targets: Justin Herbert $6,800 DK / $8,500 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in QB rating against, 28th in YPA allowed), Mike Williams $5,100 DK / $5,900 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws), Jalen Guyton $3,500 DK / $4,900 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws)

NYJ DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 27.8 percent (no other team is below 48.1 percent); LAC are eighth in red-zone defense at 56.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: La'Mical Perine leads the NYJ backfield with 50 yards. Flacco throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Perriman and Ryan Griffin, but he also throws two picks and loses a fumble that Bosa returns for a score. Kalen Ballage picks up 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 260 yards and TDs to Williams and Guyton. Chargers, 37-20

Miami at Denver (+3.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Don't look now, but Brian Flores' Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Only the Steelers (obviously) and the Saints have longer winning streaks going, with Miami having reeled off five straight wins, and you can't really accuse them of taking advantage of a weak schedule as two of them came against the six-win Cardinals and Rams. That they switched QBs mid-stream makes it even more remarkable, but Tua Tagovailoa has looked confident and comfortable, posting a 5:0 TD:INT through his first three NFL starts. It's an attacking, opportunistic defense that's been the backbone of their success though, as the 'Phins sit fifth in points per game allowed at 20.2, and only the Colts and Ravens have gotten more points from their DST units. That's not the kind of squad Drew Lock wants to see coming to town. The second-year QB has a 6:10 TD:INT in five games since returning from a shoulder injury, and if he's forced to sit this week due to sore ribs, Brett Rypien and his career 2:4 TD:INT would probably step in under center. The cracks are showing in Vic Fangio's defense too — Denver's been tagged for at least 30 points by four consecutive opponents, and while the team does have a strong collection of skill-player talent, without consistent play from its quarterback, Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon etc. haven't been able to climb out of those holes.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: RG Solomon Kindley (questionable, foot)

DEN injuries: QB Lock (questionable, ribs), TE Noah Fant (questionable, ribs), RG Graham Glasgow (questionable, calf), CB Bryce Callahan (questionable, illness)

MIA DFS targets: Dolphins DST $3,400 DK / $4,800 FD (t-fourth in takeaways, DEN 32nd in INT% allowed, 32nd in giveaways)

DEN DFS targets: Melvin Gordon $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (MIA 26th in YPC allowed, 24th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

MIA DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: Tim Patrick $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (MIA third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: DEN is t-27th in third-down conversions at 38.5 percent; MIA is third in third-down defense at 33.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Salvon Ahmed leads the MIA backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Matt Breida adds 60 combined yards. Tagovailoa throws for 230 yards and TDs to Jakeem Grant and Malcolm Perry. Gordon leads the DEN backfield with 80 scrimmage yards. Lock starts and throws for 230 yards and a score to Jeudy but gets picked off twice, one of which Eric Rowe returns to the house. Dolphins, 31-13

Dallas (+7) at Minnesota, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Sure, OK, fine, the Cowboys are 2-7 and have multiple key players on IR including Dak Prescott, but would you put it past them to steal a few wins down the stretch and come out on top in the NFC East? Andy Dalton will be back under center coming out of the team's bye week, and while the one full game he's managed to play this season was nothing special, he in theory brings "stability" to the offense and has plenty of weapons to work with. Whether a 33-year-old QB with limited mobility is your best choice behind an offensive line missing both starting tackles is another question entirely, of course. The real problem in Dallas is the defense, though. They didn't get wiped out by the Steelers a couple weeks ago, but Pittsburgh appeared to be taking them fairly lightly and only cranked it up when they had to. The 4-5 Vikings won't be looking past anyone as they try to climb into the wild-card picture in the NFC. The team is back to playing ball the way Mike Zimmer likes it, winning three straight games by controlling the clock with Dalvin Cook (590 scrimmage yards and six total TDs over that stretch) and taking some pressure off the defense. Minnesota's secondary is still vulnerable if they get drawn into a shootout, but if they stick to the plan, Cook could break Dallas' spirit by halftime.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: C Tyler Biadasz (out, hamstring), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (questionable, illness), DE Randy Gregory (questionable, illness), CB Trevon Diggs (IR, foot)

MIN injuries: TE Irv Smith (questionable, groin), RG Ezra Cleveland (out, ankle), CB Cameron Dantzler (questionable, concussion)

DAL DFS targets: Amari Cooper $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS targets: Kirk Cousins $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (DAL 28th in QB rating against, 32nd in TD% allowed), Dalvin Cook $9,000 DK / $10,500 FD (DAL 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed), Justin Jefferson $6,000 DK / $6,700 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Irv Smith $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (DAL 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

DAL DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: Chad Beebe $3,200 DK / $4,500 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DAL is 29th in red-zone conversions at 51.9 percent; MIN is fourth in red-zone defense at 53.1 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Ezekiel Elliott manages 70 combined yards. Dalton throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Cook bludgeons out 150 scrimmage yards and two scores, while Alexander Mattison also gets into the end zone. Cousins throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jefferson. Vikings, 34-20

Green Bay (+1.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Packers have given themselves some breathing room in the NFC North and could go up three games on the Bears with a win here, but it's not gong to be easy. Their formula for victory has been pretty clear this season — if Aaron Rodgers leads them to 30 or more points they're 6-0, and they're 1-2 when he doesn't. Rodgers could get Allen Lazard back this week as well, giving him a full complement of targets. The Colts, however, have been almost their mirror image, going 5-0 when they keep the opposition to 21 points or less and 1-3 when they don't. Philip Rivers just isn't capable of winning too many shootouts at this stage of his career, even with Michael Pittman showing signs of breaking out, and the fact that the backfield has become a muddle isn't helping them establish a strong identity on offense. Nyheim Hines has flashed the kind of upside in recent weeks that scatbacks have long enjoyed catching passes from Rivers, but so far Jonathan Taylor has only offered another data point to support the theory that dynasty league GMs should never, ever invest in a Wisconsin running back, and Jordan Wilkins isn't an effective early down alternative. It'll be up to the defense, again, to keep the other guys in check, but the Colts have yet to face a QB like Rodgers this season. He's No. 1 in QB rating in 2020 — the highest-ranked quarterbacks Indy has faced through its first nine games are Ryan Tannehill is seventh, who they did a number on last week, and then Kirk Cousins in 16th.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Lazard (questionable, abdomen)

IND injuries: TE Jack Doyle (questionable, concussion), RT Braden Smith (questionable, thumb)

GB DFS targets: Jamaal Williams $5,700 DK / $5,300 FD (IND 25th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

IND DFS targets: Philip Rivers $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (GB 27th in QB rating against, 26th in YPA allowed)

GB DFS fades: Aaron Rodgers $7,000 DK / $9,000 FD (IND fourth in passing DVOA, first in QB rating against, second in passing yards per game allowed), Aaron Jones $7,200 DK / $8,200 FD (IND fourth in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed), Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,800 DK / $5,800 FD (IND first in DVOA vs. WR2), Packers DST $2,800 DK / $4,200 FD (t-30th in takeaways, IND first in sack rate allowed)

IND DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND is 30th in third-down conversions at 37.5 percent; GB is 15th in third-down defense at 39.8 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 70 yards and a score, while Williams adds 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Rodgers throws for 290 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Davante Adams and Lazard. Hines leads the IND backfield with 80 scrimmage yards, but it's Taylor who gets into the end zone. Rivers throws for 310 yards and TDs to Pittman and Mo Alie-Cox, but has to watch from the sidelines as Rodgers leads another late game-winning drive. Packers, 31-30 

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+7.5), o/u 56.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Narratives are a lovely thing for sportswriters. They provide such easy content. "Andy Reid can't lose after a bye week!" "Kansas City wants revenge for that Week 5 loss!" Truth be told, though, Patrick Mahomes and company know that the best revenge is to be the last team standing in February, and they're going to be focused on what's really important here — namely, that a win gives them a commanding three-game lead in the AFC West on the upstart Raiders. The offense seemed to be finding its stride heading into last week's bye, scoring at least 33 points in three consecutive wins, but the defense continues to fly under the radar. Kansas City's only allowed more than 20 points twice all year, a remarkable achievement in a season when scoring is way up. Las Vegas is bringing plenty of momentum of their own into this one, though. They've won three straight, and while beating up on the likes of the Chargers and Broncos isn't the most impressive of achievements, it's better than losing to them. As you'd expect, Josh Jacobs' success has paralleled the team's — they're 4-0 when he rushes for at least 80 yards, and 4-0 when he runs for a TD — but that's left little for Derek Carr to do, as he hasn't thrown for more than 165 yards in any game during the current winning streak. He fired up 347 yards and three touchdowns in that Week 5 upset though, and he'll need a repeat performance to keep things close in this one, especially with big chunks of the defensive line and secondary at risk of missing the game due to COVID.

The Skinny

KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, hamstring), WR Mecole Hardman (questionable, COVID), RT Mitchell Schwartz (out, back)

LV injuries: RT Trent Brown (out, COVID), DE Clelin Ferrell (out, COVID), LB Cory Littleton (questionable, COVID), S Johnathan Abram (questionable, COVID)

KC DFS targets: Tyreek Hill $8,000 DK / $8,500 FD (LV 27th in DVOA vs. WR1, 27th in DVOA vs. deep throws)

LV DFS targets: Josh Jacobs $7,100 DK / $7,500 FD (KC 30th in rushing DVOA, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

KC DFS fades: Travis Kelce $7,300 DK / $8,000 FD (LV second in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: Henry Ruggs $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. deep throws), Darren Waller $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (KC fourth in DVOA vs. TE), Raiders DST $2,000 DK / $3,000 FD (KC first in INT% allowed, third in giveaways)

Key stat: KC is t-second in third-down conversions at 50.0 percent; LV is 25th in third-down defense at 47.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 KC, average score 30-18 KC, average margin of victory 14 points. KC had won five straight meetings by an average score of 34-14 prior to LV's 40-32 victory in Week 5

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire pops for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Hill (who tops 100 yards) twice and a returning Watkins once. Jacobs rumbles for 90 yards and a score. Carr throws for 280 yards and TDs to Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow, but it's not enough. Kansas City, 31-27

Arizona (+3) at Seattle, o/u 57.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

You know a play was good when it immediately gets its own name. The Hail Murray owed as much to DeAndre Hopkins' absurd catch in triple coverage as it did to Kyler Murray's absurd off-balance 50-yard heave with pressure in his face, but on a game-winning TD like that, there's plenty of credit to go around. The Cards' victory last week created a three-way tie atop the NFC West at 6-3 between the teams clashing here, plus the Rams (and frankly even the 4-6 Niners aren't completely out of it if they could just get healthy-ish), so there's a lot riding on this game. There's every reason to think the massive 57.5 over/under is actually a bit conservative — in each of Arizona's last three games (including their Week 7 overtime win in Seattle), both teams have scored at least 30 points, and the Seahawks have been involved in three such games this season even beyond their first meeting with the Cards. Their offense is also getting close to full strength — Carlos Hyde will be back in action while Chris Carson is a game-time decision, and veteran help in the backfield should take some of the pressure off Russell Wilson to do absolutely everything himself. Since Carson got hurt (including the Arizona game, when he only saw 15 snaps before heading off), Wilson's tossed seven INTs in four games, compared to three in his first five starts.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: DE Jordan Phillips (out, hamstring), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, calf)

SEA injuries: RB Carson (questionable, foot), RB Travis Homer (doubtful, knee), WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, knee), C Ethan Pocic (out, concussion), CB Shaquill Griffin (out, hamstring), CB Quinton Dunbar (out, knee)

ARI DFS targets: Kyler Murray $8,500 DK / $9,100 FD (SEA 29th in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed to QB), Cardinals DST $2,600 DK / $3,700 FD (SEA 29th in sack rate allowed, 27th in INT% allowed, t-23rd in giveaways)

SEA DFS targets: Tyler Lockett $6,700 DK / $7,800 FD (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ARI DFS fades: none

SEA DFS fades: DK Metcalf $7,600 DK / $8,200 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. deep throws)

Key stat: SEA is first in red-zone conversions at 81.3 percent; ARI is third in red-zone defense at 51.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 5-5-1, average score 25-22 SEA, average margin of victory eight points. Seven of the last nine meetings have been decided by a single score, including ARI's 37-34 overtime win in Week 7

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 20-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake leads the ARI backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Murray throws for 270 yards and TDs to Hopkins and Christian Kirk and runs for 50 yards and a touchdown, but he also gets picked off twice. Hyde gets the start for SEA and picks up 70 yards. Wilson throws for 330 yards and four TDs, hitting Lockett (who tops 100 yards) twice and Metcalf and Greg Olsen once each. Seahawks, 34-28

Last week's record: 9-5, 5-7-2 ATS, 8-6 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 90-56-1, 72-71-4 ATS, 63-81-3 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 883-538-6, 665-708-54 ATS, 556-592-23 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)