After forcing us to get a bit creative due to a lack of fights on the UFC 289 card, the organization has once again packed a show to the gills, as Saturday's slate consists of 14 fights to potentially bring us profit. We'll break down each bout across four platforms, including a substantial underdog for the second consecutive week and a jack of all trades who may be getting overlooked. Our betting line this week is from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ronnie Lawrence ($9,400)
It was made clear in Lawrence's last fight against Saidyokub Kakhramonov that he needs to get his wrestling going in order to be successful, as "The Heat" managed just 15 significant strikes while dealing with a superior grappler. This shouldn't be an issue against Dan Argueta, who was held on his back for 10:25 in a loss to Damon Jackson. Lawrence's relentlessness in chasing takedowns is similar to Jackson's, while his toughness and submission ability may be superior. Arguetta may try to get his own takedown game going, but I don't expect that he'll be able to keep up with Lawrence here.
Pat Sabatini ($9,100)
Sabatini looks like a nightmare matchup for Lucas Almeida on a number of different fronts. The first thing to note is the upright stance of the Brazillian fighter, which should allow a power wrestler like Sabatini to ground this fight whenever he pleases. Almeida also hangs his chin in the air, which resulted in a knockdown at the hands of Mike Trizano. The 32-year-old hits much harder than Trizano, and while he will be at a bit of a height disadvantage, I expect Almeida will happily collapse the pocket for him, giving Sabatini the exact type of environment in which he can thrive.
Jimmy Flick ($6,800)
Flick was one to watch prior to taking a hiatus after his debut UFC win in 2020. While he was stopped by Charles Johnson in a somewhat questionable fashion in December, "The Brick" is one of the best submission grapplers on the card, and his proclivity for chasing takedowns could mean big upside if he can get his game going. Alessandro Costa hits hard but tends to stand right in front of opponents and overextend on punches, leaving him vulnerable to hitting the mat. Flick will need to mind his defense, but the fact that he may be considered an afterthought in the wake of his last performance means sharper players can potentially reap the rewards.
Kyung Ho Kang ($7,800)
This matchup could be something of a shock to the system for Cristian Quinonez, as he'll move from the considerable height advantage he enjoyed over Khalid Taha in his UFC debut to a three-inch reach disadvantage against Kang. Not only will "Mr. Perfect" be able to match Quinonez for athleticism and physical attributes, but he will also be able to use his wrestling and submission grappling skills to test his opponent in all aspects of martial arts. Quinonez looked fantastic when he could control a fight with a jab, but he will now step into the cage with a well-rounded opponent who hits significantly harder than he does, which should result in his first loss inside the Octagon.
Carlos Hernandez ($8,300)
What we saw from Denys Bondar prior to a match-ending injury in his UFC debut may not have been his best work, as the Ukranian fighter got stung hard by a combination before being reversed in a grappling exchange by Malcolm Gordon. Those lapses in defense will likely put him in similar trouble against Carlos Hernandez, who will constantly be looking for opportunities to take the fight to the floor and is sharp when it comes to counterpunching. Bondar will have a speed advantage here, but his recklessness may result in "Psycho" getting clipped early once again.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov ($8,500)
Zhumagulov's style as a high-paced grappler should play well at flyweight. Close decisions aside, however, the Khazak fighter has logged just one win in five attempts with the UFC. I expect those fortunes to change in a matchup against newcomer Felipe Bunes, who hits hard and can counter well but should be at a significant speed disadvantage. This should allow Zhalgas to get his opponent on the backfoot early, allowing him to dictate for the better part of 15 minutes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Tereza Bleda UNDER 45.5 Significant Strikes, Raoni Barcelos OVER 62.5 Significant Strikes, and Arman Tsarukyan OVER 38.5 Significant Strikes
Bleda's strength and ability to grapple will likely be her biggest attributes in this division, but we saw how tired she got in her UFC debut against Natalia Silva, which led to a third-round KO/TKO loss. Bleda should be solely focused on her grappling for her upcoming matchup against Gabriella Fernandes, as "Gabi" was taken down and controlled by another strong grappler in Jasmine Jasudavicius for more than 11 and a half minutes when the two fought in February. Bleda should be able to follow a similar script, which will result in plenty of regular strikes, but keep the significant ones at a minimum.
I consider our next bout to be one of the bigger mismatches on the card despite a curiously reasonable line, as Barcelos will be much faster and a much sharper striker than Miles Johns. While Barcelos is a credentialed grappler as well, Johns' pedigree as a former wrestler should help keep him upright, while his toughness should allow him to see the final bell. This means three rounds of a boxing clinic from Barcelos which should see him breeze past the significant strike total here.
Much of what I said about Bleda applies to Tsarukyan's fight with Joaquim Silva, but aside from the lower total, Tsarukyan is not afraid to strike when he has to. This is evidenced by the 91 significant strikes he logged against Davi Ramos and the 95 significant strikes he put up in his fight with Mateusz Gamrot. Silva isn't quite as active as a grappler, but it may be the case that Tsarukyan is a bit hesitant to play on the ground with "Neto BJJ," who has shown an active guard in the past. While he will likely feel more comfortable using his wrestling as the fight wears on, we don't need too much activity on the feet to hit our number.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Armen Petrosyan – 2.1 X Multiplier
Christian Leroy Duncan showed off some nice athleticism prior to an injury to Dusko Todorovic that led to his first UFC victory, but Petrosyan is a crisp striker whether countering or being offensive, which means he should be able to take advantage of the wide swings of his opponent before creating his own opportunities. Duncan is strong enough that I don't expect grappling to yield much joy for Petrosyan, but he should put up numbers as his opponent fades down the stretch.
Jared Cannonier 2.05 X Multiplier
Marvin Vettori showed impressive head movement and ability to counter in his win over Sean Strickland, but Cannonier's boxing has always been a staple of his offense, as he uses a stinging jab to control the space and set up combinations. I don't expect Vettori to have much success wrestling Cannonier, as "The Killa Gorilla" hasn't been controlled for more than three minutes on the ground in any fight since his loss to Glover Teixeira in 2017. We've seen the Italian frustrated when he has been unable to take down superior strikers in the past, and he should be put on a similar island against Cannonier.
Zac Pauga – 2.1 X Multiplier
Pauga has power but has made it clear throughout his time in UFC cages that his perfect fight is one in which he is able to grind his opponent down while looking for takedowns. This happens to be a suitable strategy for Modestas Bukauskas, who wants to use his frame and agility to pick off his opponents from range. The Lithuanian fighter carries enough muscle that gassing out has been a problem, and Pauga will look to sap his energy for three rounds.
Muslim Salikhov 1.8 X Multiplier
Salikov and Nicolas Dalby both try to weaponize speed and agility, but Salikov's ability to find angles and mix in grappling should see him get his hand raised here. This may be a slow kickboxing fight at times as both men look for their opportunities, with Salikov landing the bigger strikes to win favor on the judges' scorecards.
Bets to Consider
Manuel Torres wins via KO/TKO (+175)
Torres' first-round knockout of Frank Camacho in his UFC debut ensured that the Mexican fighter kept his streak alive, as he has never been outside of the first round in his 15-fight career. Nikolas Motta hits as hard as any opponent Torres will face in the early days of his UFC tenure, but the 30-year-old has suffered three of his four losses by knockout, the last of which came against Jim Miller in 2022. Motta will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage here, which means that Torres will be able to make him pay for some of the lazy jabs we saw in that fight with Miller. If he does not clean up his defense, Torres will find the canvas at some point, but Motta is as sloppy as Torres without as much power or toughness. This should lead to another quick result for "El Loco."
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 75 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
If you're in Ohio where legal betting just launched, check out Ohio sports betting promos. Sports betting is also officially live in the state of Massachusetts. To get the most bang for your buck when selecting a sportsbook as a new customer, check out these Massachusetts Sports Betting Promos.
