This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 101 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 101 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 0-0 ~ Dog Picks 0-0
Drake's Bet of the Week: Felipe Bunes +158
Nurullo Aliev (9-0-0) v. Joe Solecki (13-5-0)
Nurullo Aliev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 9 wins
Joe Solecki - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Aliev should find plenty of success on the mat, as Solecki is coming in on short notice and has terrible takedown defense. Solecki should get a chance or two to lock in a submission attempt but will likely be suffocated for most of the fight. I do not see an early finish, so Aliev will require ample takedowns and control time to score well for DFS. He will be a popular play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Aliev
Viktoriia Dudakova (8-1-0) v. Fatima Kline (6-1-0)
Viktoriia Dudakova - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Fatima Kline - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Kline is far too big of a favorite for my liking, and I am not convinced she hits value at her price, even with a win. She lost her debut, albeit against a much higher-ranked fighter, and did not show enough to warrant being this high. Dudakova lost a close split decision last time out and has the tools to keep this fight close. If anything, Dudakova makes a good cash play, as she should score decent in a loss.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Dudakova
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-0-0) v. Bruno Lopes (13-1-0)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Bruno Lopes - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a fight Gadzhiyasulov should win, as he should be better everywhere. However, Lopes is an LFA champion making his UFC debut after a winning fight on Dana White's Contender Series. He has not been very active in recent fights, often looking for counters and sitting back too much for my liking. Gadzhiyasulov is the pick.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Gadzhiyasulov
Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1) v. Nicolle Caliari (8-2-0)
Ernesta Kareckaite - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 5 wins
Nicolle Caliari - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Caliari is making her debut, and all her wins have come via early stoppage. However, she has not fought much as far as competition goes, and she will likely struggle with the massive size disadvantage in this fight. Kareckaite lost a very close debut that could have gone either way. I expect her to be out for blood in this fight. She has incredible cardio and pumps out volume as long as the fight stays upright. If she gets taken down, she will likely have problems getting back up, which could prove costly. I like Kareckaite to get the job done and is a sneaky play for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Kareckaite
Preston Parsons (11-5-0) v. Jacobe Smith (9-0-0)
Preston Parsons - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Jacobe Smith - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Parsons looked flat in his last fight, losing unanimously after 15 minutes. He now draws someone arguably much tougher and more skilled in Smith. Smith has seven knockouts to his name, but several of them come from a nasty ground-and-pound. Parsons typically prefers getting fights to the mat, but this will likely not play out how he wants when it gets there. Smith is a solid play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Smith
Thiago Moises (18-8-0) v. Trey Ogden (18-6-0)
Thiago Moises - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a tricky fight to pick. On paper, the apparent choice is Moises. However, Ogden has looked phenomenal in back-to-back fights, and if he finds control first, Moises could struggle to get free. That said, Moises has fought better competition and is the smart play due to his fantastic grappling. I would only play either fighter in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Moises
Marco Tulio (12-1-0) v. Ihor Potieria (21-7-0)
Marco Tulio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Ihor Potieria - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Potieria is 3-5 in the UFC, and none of those wins have been impressive. His time in the UFC should come to an end after this fight. Although Tulio is making his UFC debut, I do not expect him to run into trouble in this fight. He is dangerous and should dominate on the feet, ending this fight early and scoring well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Tulio
Jose Johnson (16-9-0) v. Felipe Bunes (13-7-0)
Jose Johnson - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Felipe Bunes - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: It is difficult to find a reason as to why Johnson is the favorite in this fight. He has two UFC wins, neither are against good competition, and four of his nine losses have come via submission, which is right up Bunes' alley. Bunes did lose his debut, but it was against the fast-rising Joshua Van, so I am not holding that against him. He likely struggles on the feet in this fight, but he should dominate on the mat, and I expect him to get it there early and often. The potential to end this fight early by submission is high, making him one of the best dog plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Bunes
Punahele Soriano (10-4-0) v. Uros Medic (10-2-0)
Punahele Soriano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Uros Medic - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Soriano won his last fight because he finally used his wrestling. If he does the same here, he will dominate the ground-deficient Medic. We have seen Medic get taken down and stuck to the mat too many times. If Soriano does not use his wrestling, his chin becomes very much in play for the powerful Medic. Keep both fighters in your pool for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Medic
Austin Bashi (13-0-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0)
Austin Bashi - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Everything that Rodriguez does, Bashi does better. Although it has been against lesser competition, so this will be a big test for Bashi. Rodriguez tends not to score well for DFS, so I will naturally gravitate toward the more dangerous Bashi but will not remove Rodriguez from my player pool. Rodriguez can grind out a win, fighting defensively and keeping Bashi guessing.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Bashi
Chris Curtis (31-11-0) v. Roman Kopylov (13-3-0)
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 31 wins
Roman Kopylov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: If this is 15 minutes of pure striking, it could go either way, as both guys are credentialed strikers. Curtis throws more volume and will probably do a little more damage in that scenario. However, Kopylov went to his wrestling in his last fight, and if he does again here, he should have no issue coming away with another big win. I expect Kopylov to continue doing what will win him fights and grind out a decision.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Kopylov
Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0) v. Cesar Almeida (6-1-0)
Abdul Razak Alhassan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
Cesar Almeida - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This feels like a trap fight for DFS. Almeida has looked poor in his UFC fights, partly due to fighting guys who wanted to get Almeida down. Alhassan does not typically go to the mat, but it would be his best path to winning. If this stays on the feet like more think it will, Almeida likely avoids the huge power of Alhassan and works his way to his own knockout. However, Alhassan is absolutely live and should not be counted out.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick:
Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-8-0) v. Carlston Harris (19-6-0)
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins
Carlston Harris - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: I no longer trust Ponzinibbio and do not expect him to put out enough volume to win any decision, so his win will need to be a knockout. Harris continues to fight like he wants to be there and seems to be the more dangerous of the two, given their recent history. I do not like this fight for DFS, but Harris is the play.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Harris
Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) v. Amanda Ribas (13-5-0)
Mackenzie Dern - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins
Amanda Ribas - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I've gone Dern in all her fights, but the rematch with Ribas scares me. Dern is absolutely the better grappler, but Ribas is better everywhere else. If Dern initiates takedowns, she gains control and can work to a submission. Her biggest problem is not being able to get her takedowns often enough. Ribas dominated their first fight in 2019 and each has improved since then, but Ribas still has the better overall game. After five rounds, Ribas should score great for DFS.
UFC Vegas 101 Pick: Ribas
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
