This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Inglewood, California at the Intuit Dome for a stacked UFC 311 card on Saturday, January 18. The pay-per-view event sees lightweight champ Islam Makhachev rematching Arman Tsarukyan in the main event, while the co-main event sees bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili taking on Umar Nurmagomedov.
Below, I'll share my UFC 311 predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Jamahal Hill (12-2) vs Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1)
The UFC 311 main card is solid, and it features a pivotal light heavyweight bout between Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka. It's a battle of former champions who are looking to get back into the win column.
Ultimately, this is a good spot for Hill to get the win, and at (-125), it's a great price. Hill isn't as well-liked as Prochazka is, so there will be some bettors just betting against Hill, which makes the line the way it is.
Prochazka has a negative striking differential, while Hill lands 7.18 significant strikes per minute. Prochazka's chin also leaves a lot to be desired, as Hill will land more shots and land the more damaging shots. Even if he doesn't knock out Prochazka, Hill should cruise to a decision win here.
UFC 311 Bet: Jamahal Hill (-125)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Reinier de Ridder (18-2) vs Kevin Holland (26-12, 1 NC)
This should be a chalk-heavy card, so there isn't an underdog I like, but Reinier de Ridder and Kevin Holland is a pick'em fight, and I like de Ridder to get the win.
De Ridder is a former ONE Championship title holder and is an elite-level grappler. Holland, meanwhile, does struggle with grapplers. Holland will have to keep this fight standing, but his takedown defense is only 54 percent.
De Ridder should be able to get Holland down and will eventually get a submission, as Holland will also struggle with his opponent's size (Holland is more of a natural welterweight).
UFC 311 Bet: Reinier de Ridder (-110)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0) vs Merab Dvalishvili (18-4)
For my prop at UFC 311, I'm taking Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision.
Nurmagomedov is a (-305) favorite, and the over/under is set at 4.5 rounds at (-315). That means this fight is heavily favored to go the distance, so getting Nurmagomedov by decision at (-135) is the way to go.
Both Nurmagomedov and Dvalishvili are elite-level grapplers, so there should be plenty of time on the mat or against the fence, which will kill the clock. Dvalishvili is also super durable, so I doubt Nurmagomedov will be able to finish him, but he will win the rounds to get a decision win.
UFC 311 Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision (-135)
Weight Class: Bantamweight & Light Heavyweight
Bernardo Sopaj (11-3) vs Ricky Turcios (12-4)
Bogdan Guskov (16-3) vs Billy Elekana (7-1)
For my parlay at UFC 311, I'm taking Bernardo Sopaj and Bogdan Guskov to get their hands raised at UFC 311.
Sopaj suffered a vicious third-round KO loss to Vinicius Oliveira in his debut on short notice, but that was a fight he was winning, and Oliveira looks like the real deal. Turcios, meanwhile, has struggled in the UFC, as he doesn't throw a lot of volume and misses a lot of strikes. Sopaj should be able to out-volume Turcios to win a clear-cut decision win.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Bogdan Guskov to beat short-notice opponent Billy Elekana. Guskov is coming off back-to-back stoppage wins and is well-rounded, while Elekana hasn't fought the best level of competition. Elekena's cardio will also be something to monitor with him accepting this fight just last Saturday. I expect Guskov to come out strong, land something big, and finish Elekena by strikes in the first or second round.
UFC 311 Bet: Bernardo Sopaj & Bogdan Guskov parlay (-130)
UFC 311 Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 311 card.
- Jamahal Hill (-125)
- Reinier de Ridder (-110)
- Umar Nurmagomedov by decision (-135)
- Bernardo Sopaj & Bogdan Guskov (-130)
