Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit

Wind could be the big story of Week 8, or maybe it'll be the slew of backfield injuries that impacts games the most from a fantasy standpoint. Either way, there's little doubt we're looking at some major disruptions to our regularly scheduled programming.

Then again, disruptions have been the new norm in 2020, be it for football, fantasy football or everyday, regular life. There's not much RotoWire can do to help with the latter, but we do have a slew of tools to assist you in making good decisions with fantasy lineups!

If you're still trying to decipher all the chaos created by RB injuries, my Week 7 Backfield Breakdown is a good place to start. I also do the same thing for wide receivers and tight ends, making note of any injuries or role changes that could be relevant for future weeks.

In terms of dealing with the wind, RotoWire's Weather Report page is always worth a look, especially Sunday morning when forecasts are most accurate. As of Thursday afternoon, it appears wind in the Midwest will be the biggest issue, potentially impacting Raiders-Browns, Vikings-Packers and Saints-Bears. 

There's also some concern, albeit to a lesser extent, that bad weather could negatively affect kickers, quarterbacks and pass catchers in Titans-Bengals, Bills-Patriots, Jets-Chiefs and the Thursday night contest between Atlanta and Carolina. It's a lot to deal with, but we'll try not to harp on it too much in the discussion below, as there's a good chance some of the borderline situations won't look so bad come Sunday.

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RW weekly composite rankings
• RW Betting odds
• RW Target share page
• RW Snap count page
• RW Defense vs. Position stats
• RW pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in less than 80 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult start/sit decisions. Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, a.k.a. standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Thursday Night Special

QB Teddy Bridgewater vs. ATL — UPGRADE ⬆️

35% started on Yahoo, 21% on ESPN

The weather in Charlotte still looked pretty nasty Thursday morning, but the worst of it is expected to pass before the 8:20 p.m. kickoff. Accuweather projects light showers and winds around 10 mph at 8:00 p.m., with gusts up to 22 mph. A second wave of wind is expected at some point, but likely not until Friday morning.

The over/under for this game has gone up from 49 to 51.5, and now back down a little to 51. That still leaves Carolina with a nice implied total of 26.5, favored by two points over an Atlanta team that's given up a league-high 28.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Bridgewater makes for an excellent streamer or bye-week replacement, checking in at No. 10 among QBs in RW's weekly projections.

Mike Davis, Robby Anderson and DJ Moore remain must-starts, all carrying significant potential for BOOM weeks against this lousy Atlanta defense. The Falcons have been generous to QBs, WRs and TEs more so than RBs, but Davis roasted them for a career-high 29.9 PPR points just three weeks ago. Bridgewater threw for 313 yards and two TDs in that game, with Moore going for 4-93-1 on five targets and Anderson putting up 8-112-0 on 12 opportunities.

Ian Thomas was held without a catch on one target, while Curtis Samuel kind of got in on the fun with five catches for 36 yards and four carries for another 28. The Falcons have allowed a league-high 17.0 fantasy points per game to tight ends, but Thomas is a goose-egg candidate in even the best matchups, as he's seen only 12 targets on 193 routes this year, with 0.26 yards per route putting him last among all players with double-digit targets this year.

The Atlanta side of the game looks kind of similar, featuring a pair of must-starts at WR (Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones) and another at RB (Todd Gurley). Gurley ripped the Panthers for 14-121-1 in the previous matchup, taking advantage of a unit ranked 28th in DVOA against the run (3.5%), 28th in YPC (4.9) and 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.9).

The Panthers haven't exactly been dominant defending the pass from an efficiency standpoint, but they are Top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs, WRs and TEs. While Ridley put up eight for 135 in the first matchup, Carolina shut down Hayden Hurst (2-8-0), Russell Gage (2-16-0) and Olamide Zaccheaus (1-13-0) in a game Jones missed with a hamstring injury.

For what it's worth, the other Atlanta pass catchers have all done better with Jones IN the lineup this season, with the efficiency boost for the whole offense perhaps outweighing the impact of losing some target share. Ridley has averaged 17.8 points (half-PPR) in five games with Jones playing, compared to 15.9 without him. Hurst is at 12.5 with Jones, 5.0 without. And for Gage it's 12.6 to 4.1. As you might guess, Matt Ryan has also shown a huge split - 26.6 to 11.5. It's a small sample, and one that's been impacted by matchups, but I find it interesting nonetheless.

Carolina has a potentially good pass rush led by superstar-in-the-making Brian Burns, even though the sacks haven't come yet, but you could argue that each of Jones, Ridley, Gage and Hurst should have the advantage over the guys trying to cover them in the Panthers secondary.

Upgrade

Quarterback

• Ryan Tannehill at CIN

56% started on Yahoo, 41% on ESPN

The Bengals gave up 371 yards and three touchdowns to Philip Rivers in Week 6, followed by 297 and five scores to Baker Mayfield in Week 7. They're middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to QBs for the season as a whole, but that's largely on account of favorable matchups (Mayfield twice, Philip Rivers, Lamar Jackson, Gardner Minshew, Carson Wentz and Tyrod Taylor). Tannehill might be the best pure passer the Bengals have faced all year, ranking eighth in completion percentage (68.5), fourth in TD rate (7.4), fourth in INT rate (1.0) and 11th in NY/A (7.32). Plus, this will be only the third time all year with both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis in the lineup.

• Honorable Mentions: Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN; Teddy Bridgewater, CAR vs. ATL; Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at SEA

Running Back

• Jonathan Taylor at DET

73% started on Yahoo, 62% on ESPN

While he hasn't been the smash RB1 so many of us expected after the Marlon Mack injury, Taylor has at least been trending in the right direction in terms of both usage and rushing efficiency. Prior to the Week 7 bye, he had four straight games with 4.0 YPC or better, including a season-high 5.0 in the Week 6 win over Cincinnati. Negative game script limited him to a dozen carries both of the past two games, but his share of the team total went way up, as Jordan Wilkins got only two carries on six offensive snaps between those two weeks.

If Wilkins continues to take most of his snaps on special teams, it's only a matter of time before Taylor breaks out for 20-plus carries and triple-digit yards. This week makes as much sense as any, facing a Lions defense ranked 23rd in run-defense DVOA (-1.6%), 18th in YPC (4.5) and 28th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.1).

• Boston Scott vs. DAL

33% started on Yahoo, 59% on ESPN

Assuming Miles Sanders (knee) misses another week, Scott deserves a spot in all fantasy lineups, be it as an RB1, an RB2 or a FLEX. The 5-foot-6 sparkplug may never be a bruiser between the tackles, but he doesn't need to be when he's got speed, agility and reliable hands working in his favor. Last week, he played 69 percent of offensive snaps against the Giants, taking 12 carries for 46 yards and adding a 3-46-1 receiving line on five targets. 

He could see even more touches this week, with the Eagles favored by 7.5 against a Dallas team that seems to have lost interest in blocking and tackling (among other things). The past three weeks saw each of Devonta Freeman, Kenyan Drake and Antonio Gibson put up easily his best fantasy line of the season in a matchup with the Cowboys.

• Honorable Mentions: Jamaal Williams, GB vs. MIN; Le'Veon Bell, KC vs. NYJ; Malcolm Brown, LAR at MIA

Wide Receiver

• Tyler Boyd vs. TEN

78% started on Yahoo, 67% on ESPN

Lest you have any doubts after his performance last week, Boyd is well-positioned for another big day. He's averaging 8.7 targets and 73.9 yards per game in an improving offense, and he'll now face a Titans defense that's had trouble with slot receivers all year. It was already a problem area with rookie second-round pick Kristian Fulton (knee) struggling, and now his injury has forced another rookie (seventh-rounder Chris Jackson) into the nickelback role. Boyd has a huge advantage in that matchup, and his role (8.5 aDOT) should make him less susceptible than Tee Higgins (13.7 aDOT) and A.J. Green (14.5 aDOT) if wind does end up being a factor.

• Scotty Miller at NYG

13% started on Yahoo, 10% on ESPN

The Giants have used top cornerback James Bradberry in shadow coverage a number of times, including on Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper and DeSean Jackson. We should probably expect the same against old NFC South adversary Mike Evans, who averaged only 13.5 PPR points and 67.8 yards on 10.3 targets in eight games against Carolina while Bradberry was on the team. (And Evans actually put up 6-89-1 in the one game Bradberry missed.) 

The potential shadow date could leave Miller with a primary matchup against Ryan Lewis, the not-so-proud owner of PFF's No. 110 grade out of 118 qualified cornerbacks. Lewis has given up 12 catches for 236 yards on 21 passes into his coverage, with 1.48 yards per cover snap placing 79th among 107 CBs with 100 or more cover snaps, per PFF.

• Honorable Mentions: Justin Jefferson, MIN at GB; Travis Fulgham, PHI vs. DAL; Brandon Aiyuk, SF at SEA; Hunter Renfrow, LV at CLE

Tight End

• Jonnu Smith at CIN

57% started on Yahoo, 57% on ESPN

I've been hesitant to embrace the hype, repeatedly noting that Smith still takes a lot of pass-blocking snaps and still loses some third-down work to Anthony Firkser. It all came crashing down last week when Smith caught only one of four targets for nine yards, but that was in a matchup with the Steelers defense, while Week 8 brings a trip to Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points (15.6) to tight ends, including seven touchdowns (one on a carry) the past three weeks. Given the friendly matchup, Smith can put up a nice fantasy line even if he's limited to 15-to-20 routes.

• Honorable Mentions: Noah Fant, DEN vs. LAC; Richard Rodgers, PHI vs. DAL; Robert Tonyan, GB vs. MIN

Kicker

• Rodrigo Blankenship vs. DET

67% started on Yahoo, 33% on ESPN

Playing indoors is always nice for a kicker. Even more so when a slew of games are in danger of being impacted by wind. The Colts have the seventh-best implied total (26.25) of the week, and Blankenship has scored eight or more fantasy points in every game. He's only available in some leagues because the Colts just had their bye week.

• Honorable Mentions: Jason Myers, SEA vs. SF; Ryan Succop, TB at NYG

Downgrades

Quarterback

• Drew Brees at CHI

41% started on Yahoo, 27% on ESPN

Brees, for the most part, is still good enough to overcome a tough matchup. This, however, is a bit much to ask, especially with Michael Thomas (hamstring) looking no better than questionable and Emmanuel Sanders (reserve/COVID-19) already ruled out. Brees may not be too bothered by that kind of thing when he's playing in the Superdome, but his oft-mentioned home/road splits become even more problematic when the forecast shows a possibility of winds above 20 mph in Chicago. 

Even if the weather is fine, Brees will have to contend with a defense that's given up a league-best 13.1 fantasy points per game to QBs. No signal-caller has scored more than 17.2 points on Chicago this season, not even Matt Ryan (12.4), Tom Brady (14.1) or Teddy Bridgewater (11.4). Given the weather and his depleted supporting cast, Brees could land right around that same range.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Matthew Stafford, DET vs. IND; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at BAL; Daniel Jones, NYG vs. TB

Running Back

• David Montgomery vs. NO

77% started on Yahoo, 69% on ESPN

Montgomery's workload locks him in as an every-week starter for most fantasy managers, but the more fortunate among you may have the option to bench him in difficult matchups. The Week 8 draw certainly qualifies, as the Saints are fourth in run-defense DVOA (-28.7%) and third in YPC allowed (3.5), giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points (18.3) to running backs. 

Even with double-digit carries and a handful of targets all but assured, Montgomery will probably land closer to 50 total yards than 100. He's topped 80 percent snap share in four straight games, averaging 13.3 carries for 40.5 yards and 4.8 catches for 30 yards. With only one TD in that stretch, his point totals for half-PPR were 9.2, 15.4, 11.7 and 9.4.

• D'Andre Swift vs. IND

62% started on Yahoo, 54% on ESPN

Swift's continued role expansion is exciting, and he may eventually reach a point where matchups aren't too much of a concern. But, for the time being, Detroit still seems insistent on giving Adrian Peterson 10-to-15 carries per week, and Kerryon Johnson continues to poach some snaps on passing downs. While the rookie put up nice fantasy scores the past two weeks, he did it on 11.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game, facing the Jacksonville and Atlanta defenses. 

It'll be tough to consistently match that volume with Peterson staying involved, and there's also cause to worry about efficiency against a Colts defense ranked No. 5 in DVOA against the run (-24.1%), No. 4 in YPC (3.5) and No. 4 in fantasy points allowed to RBs (16.5). Despite facing James Robinson, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt and Joe Mixon, the Colts haven't allowed a single running back to reach 75 rushing yards or 100 total yards.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. LAR; Mark Ingram (ankle) / Gus Edwards / J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. PIT; Wayne Gallman, NYG vs. TB; Justin Jackson & Joshua Kelley, LAC at DEN

Wide Receiver

• JuJu Smith-Schuster at BAL

67% started on Yahoo, 59% on ESPN

JuJu might be back in your good graces after he caught nine passes last week, but there's a big difference between beating up on a seventh-round rookie and getting separation from Marlon Humphrey. Heck, Smith-Schuster caught only five of nine targets for 43 yards last week when he wasn't guarded by Chris Jackson, who we previously mentioned in relation to Tyler Boyd (and now continue to pick on... sorry, Chris!). 

Anyway, Smith-Schuster is averaging seven targets per game at an aDOT of 5.8 yards, so he could be M.I.A. again now that his primary matchup is with PFF's No. 5 graded cornerback. Humphrey has allowed only 1.11 yards per cover snap in the slot, seventh best among 28 defensive backs with 100 or more snaps in inside coverage, per PFF. He's faced the second-most targets (37) in that capacity, but has yielded only 26 catches for 196 yards (5.3 YPT). The Steelers would be wise to test someone else, rather than coming after Humphrey the way some of Baltimore's previous opponents did.

• DeVante Parker vs. LAR

40% started on Yahoo, 20% on ESPN

The Dolphins have a rookie QB making his first NFL start, facing a defense ranked 11th in DVOA against the pass (-0.6%), first in NY/A (5.3) and second in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (22.2). Jalen Ramsey may be taking a lot of his snaps in the slot these days, but the Rams have still given up only one 100-yard receiving game (Cole Beasley) all year, with CBs Darious Williams and Troy Hill doing solid work on the perimeter.

Maybe we'd ignore the tough circumstances if Parker had been getting his 2019 volume, but he's sitting at 6.7 targets per game with 20.3 percent team share, down from 8.0 and 21.1 percent last year. The team-wide improvement has made Parker more volatile for fantasy managers, and he'll now need to adjust to life without gunslinging FitzMagic under center. It doesn't help that the wideout came out of his bye week as a limited practice participant with a groin injury, the latest in a series of nagging issues this season.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Amari Cooper, DAL at PHI; Cole Beasley & John Brown, BUF at NE; Darius Slayton & Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. TB; Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. LAC

Tight End

• Evan Engram vs. TB

40% started on Yahoo, 55% on ESPN

The Bucs gave up three touchdowns to tight ends over the past four weeks, but they've otherwise been stingy this season, limiting the position to 6.8 YPT (11th) and a 61.7 percent catch rate (7th). While Engram would be a top TE play in a targets-only league, his combination of drops (five), shallow aDOT (5.3) and brutal team context (17.4 ppg) has prevented him from providing much value in actual fantasy leagues. With the Giants sporting the third-worst implied total (17.5) of the week, we should probably brace for another Engram classic — something like 5-42-0 on eight targets.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Eric Ebron, PIT at BAL

Kicker

• Wil Lutz at CHI

86% started on Yahoo, 71% on ESPN

Most of what we discussed with Brees also applies to Lutz, though wind is arguably even more of a concern for the kicker. Lutz does have a great, multi-year track record of fantasy production, so most fantasy managers probably won't want to release him. However, it could be worth adding a second kicker just for this week if there's someone on your bench you consider disposable.

• Not-so-honorable Mentions: Greg Zuerlein, DAL at PHI; Chris Boswell, PIT at BAL

Week 8 Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (30-69 percent rostered)

QB Joe Burrow vs. TEN

QB Teddy Bridgewater vs. ATL

QB Baker Mayfield vs. LV

QB Derek Carr at CLE

QB Jimmy Garoppolo at SEA

RB Boston Scott vs. DAL - if Sanders (knee) is out again

RB Jamaal Williams vs. MIN - if Jones (calf) is out again

RB Giovani Bernard vs. TEN - if Mixon (foot) is out again

RB J.K. Dobbins vs. PIT - if Ingram (ankle) is out

WR T.Y. Hilton at DET

WR Corey Davis at CIN

WR Mike Williams at DEN

WR Rashard Higgins vs. LV

TE Mike Gesicki vs. LAR

TE Robert Tonyan vs. MIN

TE Richard Rodgers vs. DAL

K Rodrigo Blankenship at DET

K Jake Elliott vs. DAL

D/ST New Orleans Saints at CHI

D/ST Green Bay Packers vs. MIN

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-29 percent rostered)

QB Kirk Cousins at GB

QB Philip Rivers at DET

RB JaMycal Hasty at SEA

RB Carlos Hyde vs. SF - if able to play through hamstring tightness

RB La'Mical Perine at KC

RB Gus Edwards vs. PIT - if Ingram (ankle) is out

RB Malcolm Brown at MIA

WR Scotty Miller at NYG

WR Hunter Renfrow at CLE

TE Trey Burton at DET

K Ryan Succop at NYG

K Jason Myers vs. SF

For Deep Leagues (under 10 percent rostered)

QB Drew Lock vs. LAC

RB DeeJay Dallas vs. SF - if Hyde (hamstring) and Carson (foot) are out

RB Wayne Gallman vs. TB - if Freeman (ankle) is out

WR Kendrick Bourne at SEA

WR Greg Ward vs. DAL

WR Josh Reynolds at MIA

WR Denzel Mims at KC

WR Zach Pascal at DET

TE Harrison Bryant vs. LV

TE Irv Smith at GB

K Kai Forbath at MIA

D/ST Detroit Lions vs. IND

Crowd-sourced Lineup Decision

Each week I post a twitter poll with one of the toughest start/sit decisions from my own lineups. The process will be truly democratic, which means I'm required to start the player who gets the most votes, unless there's relevant injury/virus news late in the week.

(Note: This week's question includes Bridgewater, who plays in the TNF game. I'll start him if he's ahead in the poll around 5:30 p.m. ET on Thursday when I scan through my fantasy teams. If Bridgewater isn't ahead in the voting at that time, I'll drop him from my roster and wait to see the results on a winner. (Thanks, Roto fam!)

And please, feel free to drop you start/sit questions in the comments below, or you can ask me on twitter - @JerryDonabedian.