This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 86 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC 2024 Opening Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Jack Hermansson (23-8-0) v. Joe Pyfer (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hermansson ($7,200), Pyfer ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Hermansson (+205), Pyfer (-250)
Those requesting a step up in competition for Pyfer have gotten their wish. The 27-year-old has been flawless in three UFC bouts, knocking out Alen Amedovski and Gerald Meerschaert, in addition to submitting Abdul Razak Alhassan. Pyfer's power is ridiculous, but the sample size is obviously very small. We also have no idea how good his cardio is. He finished Amedovski and Meerschaert in Round 1 and stopped Alhassan a couple minutes into Round 2. Now, he gets an opponent in Hermansson that is known for his cardio and constant movement. It makes for fascinating theatre.
Jack has alternated wins and losses in his past eight fights dating back to April 2019. If that trend holds, he'll walk away victorious here. We've seen enough from Hermansson over the years to know he's not as good as the best in the world at 185 pounds, but he's still a fringe top-10 guy in a deceptively-deep division. He will represent the best opponent Pyfer has faced to date by a country mile.
All of Pyfer's numbers are meaningless given the fact he's spent a little over ten minutes in the Octagon to date. The power is obvious, and he's shown an ability to use his upper-body strength to score takedowns, but I seriously doubt he'll be able to consistently muscle Hermansson to the mat. He would be try to either use his grappling OR overwhelm him on the feet. Not both. For what it's worth, I didn't think he looked all that great in the Alhassan fight.
As I mentioned earlier, the cardio edge goes to Jack. He's had some durability issues in the past, but if he loses to Pyfer, he's going to make him work for it.
There's zero doubt the upside play is Pyfer. We've seen Hermansson in there with some of the best the division has to offer -- he dropped a split decision to Sean Strickland in February 2022 and has also fought the likes of Marvin Vettori, Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze -- and he's typically come up short. We should get an idea of his long-term upside in this fight because Jack is tricky and has plenty of tricks up his sleeve to frustrate an inexperienced opponent.
Ultimately, however, there's simply too much value on the underdog side here. Jack's takedown defense is fine (75 percent), and I could easily see him outpacing Pyfer over the course of five rounds. I could also see him landing enough volume to take a decision. The most likely outcome is probably Pyfer by knockout, but everything else favors Hermansson. That's more than enough to make him the play given the ridiculous salary relief he's providing.
THE PICK: Hermansson
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Dan Ige (17-7-0) v. Andre Fili (23-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Ige ($8,600), Fili ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Ige (-165), Fili (+140)
Ige was due to face Lerone Murphy here before the latter withdrew about three weeks ago. It sure feels as if Murphy would have been a tougher matchup, but Fili is no pushover.
Ige won six straight and seven of eight from June 2018 to March 2021, but it's gone downhill of late as the competition level he's faced has gone up. He's 2-4 in his last six bouts, with the wins coming over Nate Landwehr and Damon Jackson and the defeats against Bryce Mitchell, Movsar Evloev, Josh Emmett and The Korean Zombie. The losses are against some of the best the division has to offer, and there's no shame in that, but it's quite clear that we have likely already seen the best the 32-year-old Hawaiian has to offer.
Fili continues to be the very definition of roster depth, posting a 5-4 (1NC) record in his past 10 bouts. Andre has always been capable of strong performances, but he has zero history of defeating high-end competition and as the record indicates, zero history of winning consistently. Set to turn 34 years of age in late-June, it's highly unlikely any sort of breakthrough is forthcoming.
Ige has ridiculously fast hands and is incredibly durable. In short, he's a brawler. He has yet to be knocked out in 24 pro fights, which is amazing given some of the beatings we have seen him take over the years. It's volume-over-power here, and he really struggles to defend a takedown. Fili fights a similar style.
Both of these men are willing to eat a strike in order to land two of their own. Ige hits harder and is the more technical boxer, but Fili enters with a four-inch edge in height and three-inch edge in reach. We've seen Ige struggle to get inside consistently against larger opponents in the past, but I don't think Andre employs the type of style that will keep him at distance.
Fili's cleanest path to victory would be to try and wrestle. His 2.19 takedowns landed per 15 minutes is reasonable, but he's landed just two in his past six fights overall. Thus, I expect this to be a back-and-forth brawl.
All bets are off if Fili can get Ige to the mat, but I think Ige is the more accomplished, technical striker, and I think he's going to win a stand-up battle. His price looks plenty reasonable.
THE PICK: Ige
Middleweight
Brad Tavares (20-9-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($7,100), Rodrigues ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (+200), Rodrigues (-245)
We last saw Tavares last August when he was taking a unanimous decision win from Chris Weidman at UFC 292 in Boston. Brad didn't look very good in that fight, to be perfectly honest. He stuffed all eight Weidman takedown attempts, which allowed him to land enough underwhelming volume on the feet to get his hand raised. Tavares turned 36 years of age in late December. He's 3-4 in his past seven fights, with the wins coming against Weidman, Omari Akhmedov (split decision) and Antonio Carlos Junior. I'd be beyond shocked if there was a stretch of prolonged success forthcoming here.
Rodrigues is essentially the polar opposite of Weidman. Yes, he averages 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Gregory is stepping into the octagon in hopes of inflicting major damage on the feet. He's far less technical than Ige, for example, but employs a similar style. Eat a strike to land two of your own. Each of his last four fights (3-1) have all ended via knockout.
This seems like a bad matchup for Tavares. He displayed very little energy in the Weidman fight and that's not going to be an option against an opponent in Rodrigues that floors the gas pedal at every opportunity. The Brazilian is two inches taller and will enter with an inch edge in reach.
Rodrigues is also more than four years younger than Tavares, which seems nearly impossible to believe.
Then there's the activity level. If we go back about three years, to January 2021, Brad has fought five times, while Rodrigues has fought nine times. That's not always a good thing, but it's been nearly five years since we've seen a meaningful, authoritative performance from Tavares.
I have zero confidence in Brad's ability to put forth a quality effort against a half-way decent opponent in the early days of 2024. Rodrigues' salary isn't particularly appetizing, but I think he wins.
THE PICK: Rodrigues
Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira (9-2-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($8,200), Petrosyan ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (-115), Petrosyan (-105)
If you're a fan of contrasting styles, boy, is this the fight for you.
One of the most decorated grappling specialists in the history of the sport, Vieira's UFC run has gone about as expected through a half-dozen bouts. He's 4-2, with all four wins coming via submission and against lesser competition. The two defeats came against reasonable competition in Chris Curtis and Anthony Hernandez. Vieira clearly has a world class skill, but he's already 34 years of age and behind where he needs to be experience wise in the sport of MMA. He fought just once in 2022 and 2023, and that type of activity isn't going to get the job done.
Petrosyan has won three of his first four UFC bouts following a first-round knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series back in October 2021. The three victories are over Christian Leroy Duncan, A.J. Dobson and Rodrigues, all three of which are quite clearly better than anyone Vieira has defeated to date. Petrosyan has nearly 100 professional kickboxing matches on his resume, so you know where his strengths lie.
Everything here is extremely straight forward. Vieira -- who averages 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes -- is going to try to get the fight to the mat. If he's successful, Petrosyan is toast. I imagine he's going to have a very difficult time getting back to his feet despite being three inches taller than Vieira. The fact Armen defends the takedown at a woeful 36-percent clip doesn't help matters, either. Petrosyan managed to remain upright against Duncan -- a noted striker with no grappling game to speak of -- but was taken down at least twice in his prior four bouts, including the on on the Contender Series.
If Rodolfo can't get the fight to the mat, he's in all sorts of trouble. He's absorbing 4.84 significant strikes a minute, and Armen possesses the stand-up skills to lap Vieira in a prolonged kickboxing match.
Flip a coin. I'm siding with Vieira simply because he can get hammered on the feet for a couple mins, land a takedown halfway through the frame and still win the round. It's beyond imperative the takedown attempts keep coming even if the first few don't land. Some fighters pile up the attempts, others shut it down when that part of their game fails early on. The Brazilian cannot fall into the category of the latter, or he's going to lose.
THE PICK: Vieira
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Robert Bryczek (17-5-0) v. Ihor Potieria (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Bryczek (-200), Potieria (+165)
THE PICK: Bryczek
Lightweight
Michael Johnson (22-19-0) v. Darrius Flowers (12-6-1)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,300), Flowers ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-125), Flowers (+105)
THE PICK: Johnson
Welterweight
Trevin Giles (16-5-0) v. Carlos Prates (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Giles ($7,000), Prates ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Giles (+210), Prates (-260)
THE PICK: Prates
Women's Strawweight
Bruna Brasil (9-3-1) v. Loma Lookboonmee (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Brasil ($6,800), Lookboonmee ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Brasil (+220), Lookboonmee (-270)
THE PICK: Lookboonmee
Light Heavyweight
Devin Clark (14-8-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (16-7-0)
DK Salaries: Clark ($8,900), Prachnio ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Clark (-220), Prachnio (+180)
THE PICK: Clark
Welterweight
Max Griffin (19-10-0) v. Jeremiah Wells (12-3-1)
DK Salaries: Griffin ($7,700), Wells ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Griffin (+130), Wells (-155)
THE PICK: Griffin
Light Heavyweight
Zac Pauga (7-2-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Pauga ($8,400), Guskov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Pauga (-125), Guskov (+105)
THE PICK: Guskov
Bantamweight
Daniel Marcos (15-0-0) v. Aori Qileng (25-10-0)
DK Salaries: Marcos ($9,300), Qileng ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Marcos (-245), Qileng (+200)
THE PICK: Marcos
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 86 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
