This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Denver DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Denver takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Rose Namajunas (13-6-0) v. Tracy Cortez (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Namajunas ($9,000), Cortez ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Namajunas (-225), Cortez (+185)
Cortez is in for an ill Maycee Barber here. She was due to fight Miranda Maverick just a week later, so Tracy was in the midst of a full training camp and should be fully ready to go despite the late notice.
Rose made her flyweight debut last September in Paris and looked better than I expected in a unanimous decision defeat to future title challenger Manon Fiorot. She got back in the win column in March with a unanimous decision main event victory over Amanda Ribas. I wasn't a huge fan of Namajunas' decision to move up to 125 pounds initially, but she's been able to find some intriguing matchups in her new weight class, and I've come around to the idea.
Cortez is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, but a deeper dive reveals some concerns. For starters, she's fought just five times since her November 2019 debut. Her five wins are over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto, Justine Kish, Stephanie Egger and Vanessa Melo. All five victories are via decision. Namajunas is going to be her toughest test by a country mile.
Neither woman is going to have a size edge here, as both are 5-foot-5 with a 65-inch reach.
Rose's striking, once a weakness, has definitely improved over the years. We've seen her lean on her stand-up skills to win fights. Tracy has earned a reputation as a fighter who excels in brawls, and rightfully so. We've seen her get extremely physical at times, particularly in tight, and I think she's going to have an edge over Namajunas in terms of physicality and strength at the point of attack. I have zero issues with Rose trying to pick her apart on the feet, but she has to try to do it at distance.
I'd give Namajunas the edge in terms of submission skills, and that may very well come into play here. Rose gave up four takedowns to Ribas on eight attempts. She did a nice job of popping right back up and not allowing her opponent to dominate positionally, but Cortez is bigger and stronger than Ribas. One or two well-timed shots from Tracy could be the difference in a close fight. Namajunas will have to remain aggressive if she's on her back, even if it's just to work to get back to her feet.
Grappling is definitely a massive part of Cortez's game. She failed on her lone takedown attempt against Jasudavicius her last time out, but had landed at least two takedowns in each of her first four UFC bouts.
I'd really like to see Cortez beat someone of note before backing her. I admit the odds and DK salaries here seem a bit lopsided in Rose's favor, but she has an extensive track record of success against the best in the world, even if the vast majority of it came in a different weight class. She's the pick, albeit uncomfortably.
THE PICK: Namajunas
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-7-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Ponzinibbio ($8,800), Salikhov ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Ponzinibbio (-205), Salikhov (+170)
These two were due to fight way back in January 2021 before Salikhov contracted COVID and was forced to withdraw. They'll finally get it on this coming Saturday.
Ponzinibbio had won seven in a row before a staph infection cost him to miss well over two years. He was sidelined from November 2018 to January 2021. He has fought six times since, going 2-4, with two knockout defeats and two split decision losses in there. The competition level he's faced has been extremely high (Kevin Holland, Alex Morono, Michel Pereira, Geoff Neal, Miguel Baeza, Li Jingliang), but set to turn 38 years of age this coming September, I'm not optimistic a true turnaround is forthcoming.
That said, this is a winnable fight for Ponzinibbio, as Salikhov is in even worse shape. Having turned 40 years of age this past June, Muslim is 1-3 in his past four bouts, including two knockout defeats. I'm tempted to say I'm even less confident in Salikhov's ability to turn things around than Ponzinibbio's.
This fight seems likely to be almost entirely contested on the feet. Salikhov has legitimate power and highly technical stand-up skills. Exactly what you would expect from a guy with about 200 professional kickboxing matches under his belt. While that's all well and good, he's seemingly getting hit more than ever at his advanced age. Muslim is struggling to get his head off the center line, and his footwork has all but evaporated. In short, it's the same thing happening to Ponzinibbio, just on a greater scale.
I'd be very intrigued if Salikhov attempted to lean on his wrestling, and he's capable of doing so, averaging 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I also have questions about his cardio, and I can't imagine him spamming takedown attempts together in an attempt to win a decision, even if that's the clearest path to victory.
The combination of questionable cardio and a lack of durability is enough to swing me in Ponzinibbio's direction. Santiago has a questionable chin in his own right, but it sure seems as if Salikhov is the one trending in the wrong direction in a more significant manner. The pick is simply the lesser of two evils in many ways.
THE PICK: Ponzinibbio
Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim (15-1-0) v. Ange Loosa (10-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($9,300), Loosa ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-375), Loosa (+295)
Bonfim looked unstoppable in his first two UFC bouts, winning both of them via submission over Trevin Giles and Mounir Lazzez in 73 seconds or less. He then fought Nicolas Dalby last November. Bonfim looked strong in the early going before badly gassing out and getting outworked before eventually getting knocked out late in Round 2. It was a bad look all the way around that he'll look to rebound from here.
Loosa is four fights into his UFC run. He dropped a decision to the aforementioned Lazzez in his debut in April 2022, then took a pair of unanimous decisions from AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee, before an accidental eye poke led to a no-contest against Bryan Battle this past March. Loosa looked pretty lousy in the Battle fight prior to the stoppage.
Loosa is a high-energy brawler. He's willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. Not counting the Battle fight, he's landed no fewer than 88 significant strikes in his other three UFC bouts. The volume is most definitely there, but the fact he plays zero attention to defending himself constantly leaves him in a bad spot in terms of optics with the judges. Unfortunately, I think this is the way he has to fight in order to remain competitive. I don't trust the secondary skills at all, so Ange should continue trying to go for broke and letting the chips fall where they may.
All of Bonfim's statistics are skewed because he's spent so little time in the Octagon. He definitely has a grappling-heavy approach. A dozen of his 15 career wins are via submission. Gabriel is trying to get you to the mat and work from there. Even in the Dalby defeat, he landed 3-of-5 takedown attempts. It should be noted Loosa is not an easy guy to get the mat. He's been taken down once in the UFC and that was by Battle.
Everything suggests Bonfim should win this fight. He's four years younger than Loosa, the much better athlete, and has more ways to win. That said, his last fight proves him untrustworthy in a big spot. He has to be the pick, but tread carefully. It's a massive chunk of your budget on a guy with a couple of obvious question marks.
THE PICK: Bonfim
Featherweight
Julian Erosa (29-12-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Erosa ($7,300), Rodriguez ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Erosa (+170), Rodriguez (-205)
Set to turn 35 years of age on July 31, Erosa continues to hover around the .500 mark, hanging onto his roster spot in the process. Fresh off back-to-back first-round knockout losses to Alex Caceres and Fernando Padilla, Erosa submitted Ricardo Ramos in just over two minutes this past March as a healthy underdog, almost certainly saving his job in the process.
The 26-year-old Rodriguez is a legitimate prospect. He's won four straight on the heels of a unanimous decision defeat to Jonathan Pearce in his UFC debut back in February 2022. Of course, Rodriguez most definitely lost his last time out against Isaac Dulgarian in March, but two of the three judges gave him the decision. Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Erosa is ridiculously tough, but he has a skill set that is almost impossible to back, especially at this stage of his career. His win condition is almost certainly via submission. As we all know, those are very difficult to predict. If that's not bad enough, he also has seven career defeats via knockout, so his durability is a major question mark. In short, you're hoping his chin holds up to the point his opponent makes a major mistake and Erosa can take full advantage. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? Definitely not.
Rodriguez has the look of a solid all-around fighter. His volume on the feet can be lacking at times, but he's displayed the ability to pick up the pace when needed. I can't imagine he'll be forced to floor the gas pedal against Erosa. From a grappling standpoint, he's been up and down. He allowed a whopping seven takedowns to Dulgarian on 16 attempts. That's obviously a serious concern. But he displayed his offensive wrestling against a good opponent in Cameron Saaiman in his prior bout, landing three takedowns of his own.
Erosa will mix in a takedown here and there, but he isn't the type to chain together constant attempts like Dulgarian did.
Rodriguez's biggest challenge will be to negate the six-inch height edge and three-inch reach edge Erosa will enter with. Yet, given the fact Julian has minimal power at this stage of his career, Christian should feel comfortable engaging Erosa in the pocket.
All things considered, Rodriguez looks like a value play here, especially from a Vegas odds standpoint. Erosa is going to be dominated more often than not at this stage of his career, and while he have proven capable of pulling an upset here and there, Rodriguez should be able to remain upright and take a decision.
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Drew Dober (27-13-0, 1NC) v. Jean Silva (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Dober ($8,200), Silva ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Dober (-110), Silva (-110)
THE PICK: Silva
Middleweight
Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0) v. Cody Brundage (10-6-0)
DK Salaries: Alhassan ($8,500), Brundage ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Alhassan (-150), Brundage (+125)
THE PICK: Alhassan
Bantamweight
Montel Jackson (13-2-0) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (14-6-1)
DK Salaries: Jackson ($8,600), Blackshear ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Jackson (-165), Blackshear (+135)
THE PICK: Blackshear
Flyweight
Joshua Van (10-1-0) v. Charles Johnson (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Van ($8,700), Johnson ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Van (-160), Johnson (+190)
THE PICK: Van
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius (10-3-0) v. Fatima Kline (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Jasudavicius ($7,800), Kline ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Jasudavicius (+110), Kline (-130)
THE PICK: Kline
Women's Flyweight
Luana Santos (7-1-0) v. Mariya Agapova (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($9,200), Agapova ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-360), Agapova (+260)
THE PICK: Santos
Middleweight
Josh Fremd (11-5-0) v. Andre Petroski (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Fremd ($8,300), Petroski ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Fremd (-115), Petroski (-105)
THE PICK: Petroski
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Denver with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
