NFL Game Previews: Patriots-Bills Matchup

New England at Buffalo (+14), 44.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Pats have won five straight, but imagine how scary they would be if their offense was intact. Sony Michel's dealing with a knee injury, Gronk is an old man at 29 years old, and Josh Gordon is still nursing his hamstring – although that didn't stop him from posting his first 100-yard game of the year last week. Just so long as Tom Brady is OK, though, the rest is noise. As for the Bills ... look, I know they already have two wins, but if they never score another point again it wouldn't be a huge surprise. Pulling a QB in off the street to start an NFL game turned out not to be such a great idea, and Derek Anderson may not even be healthy enough to make it through a second game, which would force Buffalo to turn back to Nathan Peterman. Injuries in the backfield basically leave them with no plausible path to even 20 points which doesn't involve fluky bounces and defensive scores. The defense is capable of it – they're in the top 10 in turnovers generated, although they haven't kept pace with the pick-prone offense – but against Brady, that's a very narrow path to even keeping this game close, much less pulling off a prime time upset.

The Skinny:
•NE injuries: TE Rob Gronkowski (questionable, back); RB Michel (doubtful, knee); WR Josh Gordon (questionable, hamstring)
•BUF injuries: QB Josh Allen (out, elbow); QB Derek Anderson (questionable, back); LB LeSean McCoy (questionable, concussion); RB Chris Ivory (questionable, hamstring)
•NE DFS chalk: Patriots DST (BUF 32nd in points scored, tied for third in sacks allowed, tied for 29th in turnovers), James White (BUF 24th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•BUF DFS chalk: none
•NE DFS tournament plays: none
•BUF DFS tournament plays: Kelvin Benjamin (NE 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 NE, average score 26-19 NE, average margin of victory 13 points. The last three NE wins have come by an average of 19 points.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: White leads the Patriots backfield with 130 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving, while Kenyon Barner chips in 50 yards and a rushing touchdown. Brady throws for 260 yards and two more TDs, finding Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan. Marcus Murphy manages 60 yards, while Anderson has another terrible game, throwing for under 200 yards and getting intercepted twice before getting replaced by Peterman, who also gets picked off twice. Patriots, 41-0

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville (+3) at London, 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

The Story: It's hard to tell which of these team's losses last week was worse – the Jags getting Bortled to drop their third straight game, or the Eagles' defense checking out and getting Newtoned in the fourth quarter. However they got here, both these teams find themselves in the same spot during their London vacation: as preseason favorites suddenly below .500, but still only one win behind their division leaders. Philly's backfield is a bit of a mess without Jay Ajayi, and you wonder how enviously they're looking at Carlos Hyde on the Jacksonville roster, but Carson Wentz should be able to keep the offense humming. There's no such confidence in Blake Bortles any more. He got benched for Cody Kessler last week, and while he's back under center to begin this one, another poor performance could park him on the bench permanently. If there's a secret weapon for the Jaguars here, it might be the crowd at Wembley. This will be the sixth game they've played in London – no other team has played more than four – and as a result the Jags have been unofficially adopted as England's team, potentially giving them a real home-field advantage on what otherwise might be neutral ground.

The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: RB Darren Sproles (out, hamstring)
•JAC injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (out, hamstring)
•PHI DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS chalk: none
•PHI DFS tournament plays: none
•JAC DFS tournament plays: Donte Moncrief (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 14 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Corey Clement leads the Eagles backfield with 60 combined yards. Wentz throws for 250 yards and a TD to Alshon Jeffery while running in a score of his own. Hyde picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown in his Jaguars debut, while T.J. Yeldon chips in 50 combined yards. Bortles makes it to the end of the game and avoids any glaring mistakes, but throws for under 200 yards. Eagles, 17-16

Denver (+10) at Kansas City, 53.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Broncos took care of business in Arizona, but it was their defense that carried the day, returning two INTs to the house. It seems highly unlikely the defense will have as much success against Patrick Mahomes as it did against Josh Rosen. Denver's own QB, Case Keenum, continues to struggle – Emmanuel Sanders threw as many TD passes as he did last week, despite Denver scoring 45 points – and while the running game has been able to keep the offense afloat, points will have to come from somewhere if the team's going to keep pace with the league's most potent attack. Coincidentally, the Chiefs also won 45-10 last week, but routing the Bengals is a little more impressive than cutting down the Cards. While the offense continues to command all the headlines, the Kansas City defense has slowly been getting the hang of bending, but not breaking. While they still allow more yards per game than any other squad in the league, they've shaved their ranking in points per game down to 22nd – not great, but coughing up 26 points a game is a lot more palatable when your offense is giving you 37.

The Skinny:
•DEN injuries: RB Royce Freeman (out, ankle)
•KC injuries: LB Justin Houston (doubtful, hamstring); S Eric Berry (doubtful, heel)
•DEN DFS chalk: Phillip Lindsay (KC 30th in YPC allowed, 27th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•KC DFS chalk: Kareem Hunt (DEN 31st in YPC allowed), Travis Kelce (DEN 23rd in DVOA vs. TE)
•DEN DFS tournament plays: Courtland Sutton (KC 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3), Jeff Heuerman (KC 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 KC, average score 25-24 KC, average margin of victory nine points. KC has won six straight meetings, including a 27-23 victory in Week 4.
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, 16 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lindsay piles up 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Keenum throws for 280 yards and TDs to Sutton and Devontae Booker. Hunt explodes for 170 combined yards and two scores. Mahomes throws for 330 yards and three TDs, hitting Kelce twice and Sammy Watkins once while Tyreek Hill tops 100 yards. Chiefs, 41-27

Cleveland (+8) at Pittsburgh, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Well, you have to admire their consistency. The Browns have lost four games so far, and three of them have come on field goals either in overtime or in the final seconds of regulation – which doesn't even count their Week 1 tie against the Steelers. That's kind of been the story of this rivalry, too. They've only beaten Pittsburgh twice since 2010, but their last three losses have at least only been by four points or less. The futility actually goes back a lot longer than that. They haven't won two in a row in this series since the end of the 1999/beginning of the 2000 seasons, and since then they're an abysmal 4-32-1. Of course, a .111 winning percentage would still be an improvement for Hue Jackson. The neverending rebuild took another step forward when the Browns handed the starting RB job to Nick Chubb, who was solid in his first start last week, but it would be nice if Baker Mayfield has a reliable target other than Jarvis Landry, although David Njoku is getting there. As for the Steelers, it's looking more and more like the Le'Veon Bell Era is over, but James Conner has been a more than adequate replacement. They might need him Sunday. Cleveland is shockingly first in the NFL in QB rating against, and they're one of only two teams in the league with more INTs than passing TDs allowed. Even at home, Ben Roethlisberger has his work cut out for him.

The Skinny:
•CLE injuries: WR Rashard Higgins (out, knee); LB Joe Schobert (out, hamstring)
•PIT injuries: RB Bell (out, contract)
•CLE DFS chalk: Njoku (PIT 24th in DVOA vs. TE)
•PIT DFS chalk: Conner (CLE 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
•CLE DFS tournament plays: Mayfield (PIT 25th in QB rating against, 27th in TD passes allowed)
•PIT DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: PIT 9-1-1, average score 24-16 PIT, average margin of victory 10 points.
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb scampers for 70 yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Landry. Conner pounds out 140 combined yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and a TD to Antonio Brown. Steelers, 23-20

Washington at NY Giants (+1), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Washington's won two straight to take the lead in the NFC East, and while everyone and their brother are still writing them off and waiting for the Eagles to surge up the standings and bump them aside, teams built around a strong defense, solid running game and just enough passing tend not to fall apart in the second half. Alex Smith's numbers remain muted, but he's only thrown two picks and his production is basically the same as it was pre-2017 for the Chiefs – a squad that seemed to have no trouble winning with him at the helm (going 43-21 his first four seasons). The Giants, on the other hand, have dropped four straight and can't win even if their opponent gift-wraps a victory for them. The front office is already selling off anything that isn't nailed down, trading Eli Apple and Damon Harrison from a defense that already ranked in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game and was impressively a perfect 0-for-5 in getting off the field on fourth down. Cue the chorus of "they got rid of the wrong Eli!" from Giants fans.

The Skinny:
•WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (questionable, ribs); WR Jamison Crowder (out, ankle); WR Paul Richardson, (questionable, shoulder)
•NYG injuries: LB Alec Ogletree (out, hamstring)
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•NYG DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Josh Doctson (NYG 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NYG, average score 23-16 NYG, average margin of victory 11 points. NYG is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings at the Meadowlands.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peterson runs for 80 yards and a TD. Smith throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Michael Floyd while also running in a score of his own. Saquon Barkley gets held to only 70 combined yards, but he does find the end zone. Eli Manning throws for 270 yards and a TD to Odell Beckham, and a Maurice Harris fumble late in the game sets up Aldrick Rosas for the winning field goal. Giants, 23-21

Seattle (+3) at Detroit, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Would you believe that, by point differential, the Seahawks are the fourth best team in the NFC? Of course, that still puts them plus-81 behind the Rams, but there's always a wild-card spot. Coming out of its bye, Seattle could be primed for a second-half run. Doug Baldwin looked pretty healthy in Week 6, and this is usually around when Russell Wilson starts getting warmed up. Rashaad Penny even shown flashes of his first-round upside the last two times he got significant touches, but the team seems content with their committee backfield for now. His fellow rookie RB, Kerryon Johnson, is shaking off those committee shackles. While Theo Riddick's absence didn't result in a big increase in targets for Johnson, that might have been because he was too busy humiliating the Dolphins on the ground. His 158 rushing yards (on only 19 carries!) was the best performance by a Lion since... wait for it... Jahvid Best in 2011, a game that ended up accounting for over 17 percent of the fragile back's career rushing yards. Hopefully that's not a bad omen for Kerryon. Even with a viable running game at his disposal, though, Matthew Stafford is still on pace for his eighth straight 4000-yard campaign, and his first with 30-plus TDs since 2015. Amazing what some offensive balance, and a Year 2 breakout from a young stud receiver like Kenny Golladay, can do.

The Skinny:
•SEA injuries: none
•DET injuries: RB Riddick (questionable, knee); DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, shoulder)
•SEA DFS chalk: Chris Carson (DET 32nd in YPC allowed), Wilson (DET 30th in QB rating against), Baldwin (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•SEA DFS tournament plays: none
•DET DFS tournament plays: Johnson (SEA 25th in YPC allowed)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Carson scampers for 90 yards and a TD, while Penny adds 60 combined yards. Wilson throws for a season-high 320 yards and touchdowns to Baldwin and David Moore. Johnson piles up 120 combined yards, but LeGarrette Blount vultures another short score. Stafford throws for 270 yards and three TDs, hitting Golladay twice and Golden Tate once. Lions, 31-27

Tampa Bay (+4.5) at Cincinnati, 54.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Is this the week Ronald Jones II finally gets his chance at the lead role? Peyton Barber is nursing an ankle injury, and the rookie did score his first NFL rushing touchdown last week, which is one more than Barber's managed so far in 2018. On the other hand, Jones has a pitiful 2.6 YPC, albeit in a tiny sample of 17 carries, so he hasn't exactly done a lot to push his way into the job yet. Whoever handles the workload in the Tampa backfield could be in for a big day despite their struggles, though, as the Bengals haven't had much luck slowing anyone down on the ground. That assumes there are many totes to go around, of course. With Cincinnati having lost another heartbreaker to the Steelers before getting routed by the Chiefs, the team will be looking to re-assert themselves as the AFC's gatekeepers – they're not great, but they're good enough that only great teams can beat them. A quick start from Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd against a Tampa pass defense that thinks an interception is that Leo DiCaprio movie about invading people's dreams will turn this one into a shootout.

The Skinny:
•TB injuries: DT Gerald McCoy (out, calf)
•CIN injuries: RB Giovani Bernard (out, knee); LB Vontaze Burfict (out, hip); WR John Ross (out, groin)
•TB DFS chalk: Mike Evans (32 percent of team Air Yards, CIN 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•CIN DFS chalk: Dalton (TB 32nd in QB rating against), Boyd (TB 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•TB DFS tournament plays: Jones (CIN 29th in YPC allowed, 28th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•CIN DFS tournament plays: C.J. Uzomah (TB 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Joe Mixon (TB 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 10-13 mph wind, 20-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones leads the Bucs backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Jameis Winston throws for 340 yards and three TDs, also finding Evans (who tops 100 yards) and DeSean Jackson. Mixon gains 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Dalton throws for 280 yards and four scores, hitting A.J. Green, Uzomah, Boyd and Alex Erickson. Bengals, 38-27

NY Jets (+7) at Chicago, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: Is there a more volatile outfit in the league than the Jets? In their three wins, they've averaged more than 40 points, but they've failed to top 17 in any of their four losses. Maybe that shouldn't be surprising for a team with a rookie QB and plenty of injury issues – in addition to the skill players below, starting center Spencer Long is battling knee and finger woes. More perplexing is the declining level of performance by the defense. After holding their first three opponents to 21 points or less, three of the last four offenses the Jets have faced have torched them for 34 points or more. Again, a banged-up secondary deserves some blame, but it doesn't explain making Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack look like Adrian Peterson and Edgerrin James in their primes in successive weeks. The Bears don't have as many players listed on their injury report, but only one name matters. With Khalil Mack at less than 100 percent, a defense that held the Bucs to 10 points before its bye has now coughed up 69 points (nice) in losing consecutive games to Tom Brady and, ulp, Brock Osweiler. Even on a windy day in the Windy City, it could end up making another AFC East QB look pretty good.

The Skinny:
•NYJ injuries: RB Bilal Powell (IR, neck); WR Quincy Enunwa (out, ankle); WR Robby Anderson (doubtful, ankle); CB Trumaine Johnson (doubtful, quad); S Marcus Maye (questionable, thumb)
•CHI injuries: LB Mack (questionable, ankle); WR Allen Robinson (questionable, groin)
•NYJ DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS chalk: none
•NYJ DFS tournament plays: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 12-17 mph wind, 10-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Isaiah Crowell puts together 70 combined yards. Sam Darnold throws for 230 yards and TDs to Chris Herndon and Andre Roberts. Jordan Howard rumbles for 60 yards and a touchdown, while Tarik Cohen chips in 60 combined yards. Mitchell Trubisky throws for 250 yards and scores to Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton. Bears, 24-20

Baltimore at Carolina (+2), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Story: It's a little weird looking at the AFC North standings right now, as the two four-win teams (the Ravens and Bengals) are staring up at the three-win Steelers, but such is life in a world with byes and ties. Of course, had Justin Tucker not missed the first extra point of his entire career against the Saints, Baltimore might have five wins and made the issue moot. While their signature is still suffocating defense – they're second in QB rating against, and second in third-down success rate against – the Ravens have joined the 21st century and added a real passing game to the mix thanks to an offseason revamp of their receiving corps, and Joe Flacco's willingness to get the ball to them. The Panthers remain a mystery. Their comeback against the Eagles was impressive, but it was also preceded by three very lackluster quarters. On any given week they can flash a potent running game, a dangerous passing game and a tough defense, but seemingly never all three at the same time. Only one of their games this season has been decided by more than one score, their 31-21 win in Week 3 over Cincinnati, and if Cam Newton's shoulder soreness becomes a more serious concern at some point, their chances of keeping pace with the Saints would evaporate.

The Skinny:
•BAL injuries: CB Jimmy Smith (questionable, groin)
•CAR injuries: WR Torrey Smith (out, knee)
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Nick Boyle (CAR 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•CAR DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alex Collins leads the Ravens backfield with 70 combined yards. Flacco throws for 300 yards and TDs to John Brown and Boyle, while Lamar Jackson also throws a short touchdown to Hayden Hurst. Christian McCaffrey manages 90 combined yards. Newton throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to D.J. Moore and Greg Olsen while also running for 40 yards and a score. Panthers, 27-24

Indianapolis at Oakland (+3), 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Story: The Colts really dealt a blow to their 2019 draft placement last week, but it's getting impossible to ignore the tear Andrew Luck is on. He's thrown 15 TDs in the last four games, downright Mahomesian numbers, and while his production mightbe more a product of volume than efficiency, it's still production. The Colts' offense is basically like a destitute person's Chiefs offense, featuring a very narrow tree (Marlon Mack in the backfield, T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron as the only significant targets) with a lot of points being channelled through them. An Oakland defense which was already sitting 29th in QB rating against before the front office signalled that Jon Gruden hates his entire current roster and wants to get rid of the lot of them may not slow Luck's roll, but that doesn't mean this game isn't winnable. The offense still has weapons, even with Marshawn Lynch on IR and Amari Cooper in Dallas, and there are some talented players in place to step up and seize the available snaps against an Indy defense that's only allowing a field goal less per game than Oakland's.

The Skinny:
•IND injuries: RB Mack (questionable, ankle); K Adam Vinatieri (questionable, groin); WR Ryan Grant (out, ankle)
•OAK injuries: RB Marshawn Lynch (IR, groin); WR Seth Roberts (questionable, concussion)
•IND DFS chalk: Luck (see above), Ebron (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
•OAK DFS chalk: Jordy Nelson (IND 24th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•IND DFS tournament plays: Nyheim Hines (OAK 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: Seth Roberts (IND 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mack starts and piles up 100 combined yards, but it's Hines who scores twice, once rushing and once receiving. Luck throws for 280 yards and two more TDs, hitting Ebron and Dontrelle Inman, but also tosses an INT that Marcus Gilchrist returns to the house. Doug Martin grinds out 60 combined yards, while Jalen Richard adds 50. Derek Carr throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Nelson and Seth Roberts, and Daniel Carlson becomes the week's feel-good story when the former Viking kicks the winning field goal for Oakland. Raiders, 27-24

San Francisco at Arizona (PK), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: One of these teams could stand alone with one win at the end of this game, and in the driver's seat for the top pick in the 2019 draft. On paper that should be the Cardinals, given their tissue-soft run defense and rookie quarterback, but the Niners are hardly a powerhouse. C.J. Beathard has had his moments but doesn't have any reliable targets other than George Kittle, and their own shaky secondary is capable of making young signal-callers look like grizzled veterans. New offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich could also spark some life into the Cards passing game, which has nowhere to go but up after the teams' earlier meeting this season. Josh Rosen completed only 40 percent of his passes in that one, but two David Johnson TDs and a defensive score on a fumble return were still enough to give Arizona its only win. That makes a strong case for San Francisco wanting some revenge, but given how this series has gone lately, it's revenge that's long overdue.

The Skinny:
•SF injuries: RB Matt Breida (questionable, ankle); WR Pierre Garcon (doubtful, knee); CB Richard Sherman (questionable, calf)
•ARI injuries: K Phil Dawson (questionable, hip)
•SF DFS chalk: Matt Breida (ARI 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Kittle (ARI 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
•ARI DFS chalk: none
•SF DFS tournament plays: Raheem Mostert (if you take a chance on another quick exit from Breida)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: Rosen (SF 27th in QB rating against), Christian Kirk (SF 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 ARI, average score 24-18 ARI, average margin of victory 10 points. ARI has won seven straight meetings, including a 28-18 victory in Week 5.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Breida rips off 130 combined yards and a score, while Mostert adds 50 combined yards and a TD. Beathard throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Kittle and Trent Taylor. Johnson responds with 100 combined yards and a TD. Rosen has his best game as a pro, throwing for 260 yards and touchdowns to Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. 49ers, 31-24

Green Bay (+9.5) at LA Rams, 56.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Story: Don't look now, but Aaron Rodgers looks like Aaron Rodgers again. He's thrown for over 400 yards in consecutive games, with a 5:0 TD:INT and his best YPAs since he got hurt in Week 1. He's also sporting a smaller brace on his knee than he was a few weeks ago, and with rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling now having proven his worth while the rest of the receiving corps was banged up, the Packers have a wealth of targets for Rodgers to find. The undefeated Rams should still be able to roll no matter who they're facing, though. While Todd Gurley and the offense get most of the press, and deservedly so, the defense has been baring its teeth lately too. They're fourth in points allowed per game, and Rodgers might not be the Aaron who makes the biggest impact in this one. Aaron Donald is coming off a four-sack performance against the Niners, and has brought down the opposition QB eight times in his last four games. With Ndamukong Suh (three sacks of his own already this season) collapsing the pocket up the middle, Donald has been freed up to simply wreak havoc off the edge. Green Bay's o-line has given up 21 sacks already – 24th in the league – and is 17th in hits allowed, and it's fair to wonder how much Rodgers' pocket savvy have reduced those numbers. Against the Rams pass rush, though, those instincts will only buy him so much time.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (questionable, hamstring)
•LAR injuries: WR Cooper Kupp (doubtful, knee)
•GB DFS chalk: none
•LAR DFS chalk: Brandin Cooks (31 percent of team Air Yards, GB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1, 27th in DVOA against deep throws)
•GB DFS tournament plays: Aaron Jones (LAR 26th in YPC allowed)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Rams DST (see above)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones leads the Packers backfield with 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to MVS and Geronimo Allison, but gets knocked out of the game in the second half after a hit by Suh. Gurley has a quiet game by his recent standards, piling up 110 combined yards and only one TD. Jared Goff throws for 340 yards and three scores, hitting Cooks (who tops 100 yards) twice and Robert Woods once. Rams, 34-20

New Orleans at Minnesota (PK), 52.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: Remember when the Saints' defense got bedazzled by Fitzmagic in Week 1 and surrendered 48 points, and everyone wondered what was wrong? Well, whatever it was, it's fixed. While Drew Brees was out there setting records, the defense has held three of its last five opponents under 20 points and have been a big part of the team's five-game winning streak. If there's an element of the game plan that isn't quite clicking right now, it might be the backfield. Since Mark Ingram returned from his suspension, he and Alvin Kamara have taken turns being productive, which is a far cry from last year when they seemed to have few issues being productive at the same time. The Vikings defense also seemed to be getting its act together recently, giving up no more than 21 points in three straight wins, but it's a unit that's no been battered by injuries and absences, and key players at all three levels with either be missing or at less than 100 percent. Adam Thielen will get his in probably the cushiest matchup he'll see all year, but he can't win this one by himself. Can he?

The Skinny:
•NO injuries: none
•MIN injuries: RB Dalvin Cook (out, hamstring); LB Anthony Barr (questionable, hamstring); DE Everson Griffin (out, mental health); CB Xavier Rhodes (questionable, foot); S Andrew Sendejo (questionable, groin)
•NO DFS chalk: Kamara (MIN 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•MIN DFS chalk: Thielen (39 percent of team Air Yards, NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Stefon Diggs (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Ben Watson (MIN 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: Latavius Murray (NO 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Kamara leads the Saints backfield with 140 combined yards and two receiving TDs, while Ingram adds a rushing touchdown. Brees throws for 280 yards and four total scores, also hitting Watson and Tre'Quan Smith. Murray responds with 100 combined yards and a TD. Kirk Cousins rises to the challenge, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns to Thielen (who tops 100 yards, like I even need to mention it at this point), Diggs and C.J. Ham, but a late pick eliminates any hope of a comeback. Saints, 41-31

Miami (+7.5) at Houston, 44.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Story: Sadly, Oswizardry didn't last anywhere near as long as Fitzmagic did. Brock Osweiler actually put up solid numbers against the Lions last week, but the rest of the team did him few favors, and the Dolphins' wide receiver corps is now so gutted by injuries that DeVante Parker might get another chance with the team. Maybe Ryan Tannehill knows what he's doing staying on the sidelines and away from any responsibility for the mess Miami might be headed towards. On the bright side, Kenyan Drake showed signs of life, but if you can't break a long gain or two against Detroit, you can't do it against anybody. The Fish aren't picking the best time to head to Houston on a short week, either. The Texans have won four straight after trundling down to Jacksonville and stifling the Jags, and their defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points in any of the last three games. Of course, they haven't exactly faced elite QBs during that stretch (Dak Prescott, then Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman, then Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler), but Osweiler's name fits very comfortably among that group. The offensive line remains an issue, but Miami's front seven have produced all of 11 sacks this season, 29th in the league, so Deshaun Watson might actually have some time in the pocket this week.

The Skinny:
•MIA injuries: QB Tannehill (out, shoulder); WR Kenny Stills (out, groin); WR Albert Wilson (IR, hip)
•HOU injuries: WR Keke Coutee (out, hamstring); TE Ryan Griffin (out, illness)
•MIA DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•MIA DFS tournament plays: Parker (HOU 29th in DVOA vs. WR2), Nick O'Leary (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Lamar Miller (MIA 22nd in YPC allowed, 26th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Drake leads the Dolphins backfield with 60 combined yards. Osweiler throws for 260 yards and TDs to Parker and Jakeem Grant. Miller continues his surge, piling up 120 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Watson throws for 240 yards and a second score to DeAndre Hopkins. Texans, 24-17

Last week's record: 9-5, 7-6-1 ATS, 6-8 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 68-37-2, 49-51-7 ATS, 48-59 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS