NFL Game Previews: Packers-Raiders Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Green Bay at Las Vegas (+2), o/u 44.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Last week's loss to the Lions and Lambeau felt like a torch-passing moment. Green Bay is no longer the bully of the NFC North, and while they still have a solid team, just making the playoffs in Jordan Love's first season as the starting QB could be enough of a challenge. Love did complete over 60 percent of his passes last week for the first time in 2023, which is encouraging, but with Aaron Jones not 100 percent and AJ Dillon offering nothing so far, this has been a one-dimensional offense. Christian Watson's easing his way back into the lineup though, so at least that one dimension should get better, and it's already pretty good – Love's one of only four quarterbacks to produce double-digit TDs (eight passing, two rushing) through four games, joining Josh Allen (9/2), Justin Herbert (7/3) and Kirk Cousins (11/0).

Jimmy Garoppolo earned his money last week in the way he knows best, by giving his team a glimpse of what would be like without him. With Jimmy G sidelined by a concussion, the Raiders gave preseason darling Aidan O'Connell his first career start, and while things could have gone worse for the rookie QB, Vegas still came up short against the Chargers. Josh McDaniels' job has to be hanging by a thread at this point – the vaunted offensive guru hasn't been able to produce more than 18 points in a game yet this season, and the Raiders' 10 giveaways are second only to the Vikings. Josh Jacobs is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, although he did show some life as a pass-catcher last week, and even Davante Adams is nicked up now. The Raiders have been able to at least mostly keep things close at least – they're played three one-score games, only getting routed by the Bills – but if Adams misses any time, this team is in deep, deep trouble.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Watson (questionable, hamstring), TE Luke Musgrave (questionable, concussion), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, ankle)
LV injuries: QB Garoppolo (questionable, concussion), WR Adams (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Maxx Crosby (questionable, knee)

GB DFS targets: Watson $5,900 DK / $6,400 FD (LV 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
LV DFS targets: Jacobs $7,300 DK / $8,600 FD (GB 30th in rushing yards per game allowed)

GB DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Hunter Renfrow $3,500 DK / $4,900 FD (GB third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: GB is fourth in red-zone conversions at 69.2 percent (9-for-13); LV is t-28th in red-zone defense at 73.3 percent (11-for-15)

The Scoop: Jones plays and leads the GB backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 300 yards and three scores, two to Watson and one to Romeo Doubs. Jacobs manages 40 yards. Garoppolo plays and throws for 240 yards, hitting Adams for a TD, but he also gets picked off twice. Packers 28-16

SUNDAY MORNING

Jacksonville (+5.5) vs. Buffalo at London, o/u 48.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

Welcome to the AFC South, the land of mediocrity. All four teams are 2-2, and all four have a point differential between plus-17 and minus-2. On paper, the Jaguars still look like the most talented team in the division, and they bounced back nicely last week after getting routed by the Texans in Week 3, but the offense has still managed just 49 points over its last three contests. Trevor Lawrence has been curiously quiet during that time, managing just a 2:1 TD:INT and 6.3 YPA, and while this is still a far, far better squad than they were under Urban Meyer a couple years ago, something isn't clicking yet in 2023. They don't even have the banged-up o-line excuse a lot of other teams have through the first month of the campaign. This is also technically an away game for Jacksonville, but considering they got to hang around London all week while Buffalo had to fly across the Atlantic, it's hard to say they'll be at any kind of disadvantage in this, the first ever Josh  Allen Bowl (the Jags and Bills last played in the season after Buffalo drafted its Josh Allen seventh overall in 2018, but the season before Jacksonville drafted its Josh Allen seventh overall in 2019.)

Since that baffling loss to the Jets in Week 1, the Bills have won three straight games by a combined score of 123-33. Yes, that's an average of a 30-point margin. Crikey. Last week's trampling of the Dolphins came at a price, as Tre'Davious White was lost for the season again – poor guy's only played 21 games over the last three years – but Allen (the QB) has accounted for 10 touchdowns over the winning streak, eight through the air and two on the ground, and the defense can afford to take a bit of a step back while the quarterback is posting numbers like that. Von Miller's close to returning too, so it might end up being a net gain. Stefon Diggs has topped 100 yards in three of four games, James Cook scored his first rushing TD of the season last week... everything's coming pretty easily for the Bills right now, and one measly trip to Europe probably isn't going to change that. Plus, their uniform colors more or less match the Union Jack, and for all the talk about London being a second home for the Jaguars, they're only 5-5 there. One of those wins was a 34-31 victory over the Bills in 2015, Buffalo's only London game to date. Blake Bortles and T.J. Yeldon led the charge for the Jags, while EJ Manuel threw for nearly 300 yards and two TDs but committed three turnovers. As you can see, it's a super-relevant result to the state of the current squads – although two guys who caught touchdowns in that game, Robert Woods and Allen Robinson, are both still active in the league.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee), EDGE Allen (questionable, shoulder), LB Devin Lloyd (out, thumb)
BUF injuries: RB Damien Harris (questionable, neck), TE Dawson Knox (questionable, quadriceps), EDGE Miller (PUP, knee), EDGE Greg Rousseau (questionable, foot)

JAC DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Bills DST $2,900 DK / $4,500 FD (first in takeaways, t-1st in sacks)

JAC DFS fades: Lawrence $6,600 DK / $7,100 FD (BUF second in passing DVOA, fourth in net passing yards per game allowed), Jones $4,300 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3)
BUF DFS fades: Gabe Davis $5,800 DK / $6,700 FD (JAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: BUF is second in third-down conversions at 51.0 percent; JAC is 18th in third-down defense at 40.4 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain 

The Scoop: Travis Etienne manages 50 yards. Lawrence throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, both to Christian Kirk. Cook scampers for 110 combined yards and a TD. Allen throws for 300 yards and three scores, one each to Diggs (who tops 100 yards), Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, and runs in a touchdown for good measure. Bills 41-17

EARLY SUNDAY

Houston (+2) at Atlanta, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Texans beating the Jags is one thing – I mean, they pretty much always beat the Jags. The Texans racking 451 yards on offense en route to pummeling the Steelers? That's the kind of result that forces you to reconsider how good at least one of the teams involved actually is. C.J. Stroud's drawing all the attention, and rightfully so as the 2023 second overall pick has a 6:0 TD:INT and 8.0 YPA through his first four NFL games despite working behind a patchwork offensive line, but don't overlook the improvements made on the defensive side of the ball either. While the run defense remains a work in progress (at least it's merely bad this year instead of historically inept), the secondary's only allowed two passing TDs so far and the pass rush is generating decent pressure while having one of the lowest blitz rates in the league. DeMeco Ryans is already the early favorite for Coach of the Year, and given the state of the rest of the AFC South, a division crown suddenly doesn't look implausible.

The Falcons are also 2-2, but seem to be headed in the opposite direction. After stealing a win against the Packers in Week 2, Arthur Smith's crew has lost two straight and scored a total of 13 points doing it, and Desmond Ridder is already getting the dreaded vote of confidence as the starting QB. I'm not sure Taylor Heinicke would be a huge improvement, to be honest, but he'd at least be more exciting. Ridder has yet to throw for over 237 yards in an NFL game and has a 5:3 TD:INT in his eight starts while also losing four fumbles. The offense is going to flow through Bijan Robinson no matter who's under center – 452 scrimmage yards in your first four games will give you a lot of job security – but Kyle Pitts definitely wants a change at QB, Drake London wouldn't mind one either, and a defense that has yet to give up more than 24 points in a game would like some more help too.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (questionable, knee)
ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

HOU DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: Robinson $7,700 DK / $8,200 FD (HOU 28th in rushing DVOA, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)

HOU DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is fourth in third-down conversions at 48.4 percent; ATL is t-8th in third-down defense at 33.3 percent

The Scoop: Pierce grinds out 50 yards. Stroud throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Nico Collins, Robert Woods and John Metchie. Bijan pops for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Ridder throws for under 200 yards and coughs up a fumble that Jonathan Greenard returns to the house, and he gets replaced by Heinicke in the second half. Texans 28-16

Carolina (+9.5) at Detroit, o/u 45 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The only other winless team in the NFL other than Da Bears, the Panthers haven't made things quite as easy on their new franchise QB as the Texans have. Bryce Young's started three games and led the team to all of two offensive TDs; Andy Dalton managed three in his lone start when Young was out due to an ankle injury. The rookie did show a bit of improvement last week against the Vikings, but the plan to surround him with solid veteran talent like Mikes Sanders and Adam Thielen hasn't really paid any dividends yet. Combine that with a defense that has yet to hold an opponent below 20 points, and Carolina looks like they're headed back to the top of the draft. A Week 10 clash with Chicago in the Thursday nighter could end up deciding who officially gets the first overall slot, although it doesn't actually matter since, again, Da Bears hold both picks. Imagine if the price for Young ends up being Caleb Williams and change. Gulp.

The Lions smoked the Packers in Green Bay to take the lead in the NFC North, and they don't look like a team that's going to let the rest of the division get back in it. Jared Goff continues to do his "mild-mannered Dr. Jekyll on the road, beastly Mr. Hyde at home" thing, but it doesn't seem to matter who takes over lead back duties – they're going to do some damage. I still wonder why you spend the 12th overall pick in 2023 on Jahmyr Gibbs if you're just going to make him David Montgomery's understudy, but whatever, it's working. The receiving corps also gets Jameson Williams back earlier than expected as the NFL actually shows a bit of self-awareness with regard to its gambling policy, but Dan Campbell's already dumped a bucket of cold water on the idea that he's going to make an instant impact. Then again, if Amon-Ra St. Brown ends up sitting this one out, Detroit might need the 2022 12th overall pick to get a bigger workload than the team planned for in only his seventh career NFL game.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB Sanders (questionable, groin), LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, hip)
DET injuries: WR St. Brown (questionable, abdomen), WR Josh Reynolds (questionable, groin) 

CAR DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: Montgomery $6,600 DK / $8,500 FD and Gibbs $5,900 DK / $5,900 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA)

CAR DFS fades: Sanders $5,200 DK / $6,100 FD and Chuba Hubbard $4,500 DK / $5,700 FD (DET fourth in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed), Thielen $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (DET first in DVOA vs. WR1)
DET DFS fades: Kalif Raymond $3,300 DK / $4,800 FD (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CAR is 30th in yards per play at 4.17; DET is fourth in yards per play allowed at 4.54

The Scoop: Sanders plays but Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 40 yards. Young throws for 210 yards and a TD to Hayden Hurst while also running in a touchdown. Montgomery leads the DET backfield with 90 yards and a score, while Gibbs adds 60 yards and a receiving TD. Goff throws for 320 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Lions 34-14

Tennessee (+1) at Indianapolis, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's no coincidence that the Titans have won both games so far in which Derrick Henry has run for at least 80 yards and a TD, and lost both games when he's run for under 80 and been held out of the end zone. At 29 years old and 1,956 career touches, Henry may be past his prime, but he's still all Tennessee's got on offense. Ryan Tannehill has a 2:4 TD:INT, and defenses don't bite on his play-action efforts when Henry isn't trampling over them. It doesn't help that Treylon Burks can't stay healthy and take a step forward in his development either, but even if he were having a Year 2 breakout, his ceiling would be capped by the game plan. Mike Vrabel saw his run of four straight winning seasons end in 2022, and his ball-control philosophy – we can run it and you can't, so chuck it at your peril – has a narrower and narrower path to success when the defense can't generate consistent pressure or produce takeaways.

The Jonathan Taylor saga could be nearing some sort of conclusion, as the Colts have opened up his 21-day practice window to come off the PUP list. The Indy backfield has been fine without him, as Zack Moss has 322 scrimmage yards in three starts, and Anthony Richardson has produced multiple TDs in all three of his starts (three passing scores, four rushing scores), so the pressure is back on Taylor to just suck it up and play. A trade is still possible, but at this point other teams are probably going to want to see him on the field before getting serious about a deal. The Colts don't have a great upcoming schedule in which to showcase him – after this week they face the Jaguars (sixth in rushing DVOA) and Browns (fifth) – but activating him after that, and moving him after a Week 9 tilt against the Panthers (32nd), might be the best-case scenario for maximizing any return for Taylor.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Burks (questionable, knee)
IND injuries: RB Taylor (PUP, ankle), DT DeForest Buckner (questionable, back)

TEN DFS targets: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $3,500 DK / $5,500 FD (IND 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
IND DFS targets: Michael Pittman $6,400 DK / $6,600 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

TEN DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Richardson $7,000 DK / $8,300 FD (TEN first in rushing yards allowed, t-1st in rushing TDs allowed to QB), Moss $5,800 DK / $6,300 FD (TEN second in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4 TEN, average score 24-24, average margin of victory 12 points. TEN has won five straight meetings by an average score of 29-20
Key stat: IND is third in red-zone conversions at 72.7 percent (8-for-11); TEN is t-6th in red-zone defense at 41.7 percent (5-for-12)

The Scoop: Henry gains 70 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for under 200 yards but finds DeAndre Hopkins for his first score as a Titan. Moss manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Richardson throws for 240 yards and two TDs, both to Pittman. Colts 27-17

N.Y. Giants (+11) at Miami, o/u 50 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Things continue to get uglier for the Giants. The offense has failed to reach 250 yards or 13 points in three of its four games, and Daniel Jones just got sacked 10 times by a Seahawks pass rush that had only six sacks coming into Monday's game. The defense hasn't been any better – Seattle's 24 points last week was the lowest any opponent has hung on New York so far, and that only happened because they were more interested in chewing up the clock in the second half rather than piling up more points. The Giants have basically only played two good quarters of football in four weeks, and they came in the second half against the Cardinals. If Saquon Barkley's back in action this week it'll help, but this team's issues go way deeper than an ineffective running game. Now they get two road games in Miami and Buffalo, and are staring straight into a likely 1-5 start to the season. Maybe Brian Daboll wakes them up and they find a way to keep this one semi-close, but another rout seems a lot more plausible.

The Dolphins' irresistible offensive force finally found an object it couldn't move, as the Bills held Miami to a mere 393 yards and 20 points last week. The backfield increasingly looks like it belongs to De'Von Achane, who has 304 rushing yards and four TDs over the last two weeks on only 26 carries – that's an absurd 11.7 yards per carry – while Tua Tagovailoa has an equally absurd 9.6 yards per attempt on the year to date. To give you a sense of how explosive the unit has been, through four games the Dolphins have 2,044 yards of offense. No one else is even at 1,600 yet. The gap between first-place Miami and second-place San Francisco is bigger than the gap between the Niners and the 23rd-place Saints. In 2022, Kansas City's offense was the first to produce more than 7,000 yards since the Peyton Manning Broncos in 2013, and only the fourth in history to top that mark. The 2011 Saints hold the record at 7,474. The Dolphins' current 17-game pace? EIGHT THOUSAND SIX HUNDRED AND EIGHTY-SEVEN YARDS. Sure, the Law of NFL Parity (or Law of NFL Chaos, if you prefer) suggests that when a team routinely blowing out inferior opponents faces a team routinely getting blown out by superior opponents, the outcome will be a one-score game, but the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for Samo- err, the Giants at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: RB Barkley (questionable, ankle), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (questionable, knee)
MIA injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (IR, ribs), WR Braxton Berrios (questionable, knee), WR River Cracraft (IR, shoulder)

NYG DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: Jaylen Waddle $7,500 DK / $6,800 FD (NYG 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

NYG DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA is first (and basically lapping the field) in yards per play at 8.02; NYG are 24th in yards per play allowed at 5.60

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley remains out another week, and Matt Breida manages 50 scrimmage yards. Jones throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Darius Slayton. Achane chews up 130 yards and a score, while Raheem Mostert also runs for 90 yards and a TD. Tua throws for 380 yards and five touchdowns, two each to Waddle and Tyreek Hill (who each top 100 yards) and one to Durham Smythe. Dolphins 52-10

New Orleans (+1.5) at New England, o/u 40.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Apparently, getting Alvin Kamara back wasn't the cure for what ails the Saints' offense. Blame Derek Carr's shoulder if you want, but this unit has been among the worst in the NFL all month, sitting 29th in yards per play, tied for 25th in points per game, and dead last in red-zone conversion rate. I genuinely don't know why Pete Carmichael hasn't been sacked yet – he's been the team's OC since 2009, and the days of this being a consistent top-five offense with Drew Brees slinging the ball around to Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham are long, long gone. This team desperately needs an outside perspective – even if Carmichael gets replaced, the next man up internally is likely QB coach/passing game coordinator Ronald Curry, who's been with the Saints since 2016. The organization is wasting a very good defense on a very, very bad offense, but there's still talent on that side of the ball – Kamara, Chris Olave – if there was someone in charge who knew what to do with them.

Speaking of bad offenses, the Patriots are 1-3, and even that's a bit lucky as they'd probably be 0-4 if Aaron Rodgers were under center for the Jets. Mac Jones has somehow gotten worse from last year, dropping to a 63.7 percent completion rate and 6.2 YPA, and the offense has yet to score more than 20 points in a game. Maybe New England could get away with that if it had a top-notch defense, but the jury's still out on that one – although to be fair, they've had to face the Eagles, Dolphins and Cowboys already, potential Super Bowl contenders all. It's the usual catch-22 for teams struggling to put points on the board – the team would like to run the ball more, but the opposition has no reason to respect the passing game and open up some lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson and/or Ezekiel Elliott. A minus-5 turnover differential is also decidedly un-Patriots-like, and only five teams in the NFL are worse through four weeks. Oh, and the pass rush just lost Matthew Judon, maybe for the rest of the season. The last time New England lost double-digit games was in 2000, Bill Belichick's first season at the helm. Things might be coming full circle.

The Skinny

NO injuries: QB Carr (questionable, shoulder), RB Jamaal Williams (IR, hamstring), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, calf)
NE injuries: RB Stevenson (questionable, thigh), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR, shoulder), EDGE Judon (out, biceps)

NO DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: Olave $6,900 DK / $7,100 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: DeVante Parker $3,800 DK / $5,100 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NO is 32nd in red-zone conversions at 33.3 percent (4-for-12); NE is t-13th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (5-for-10)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, 15-20 mph wind, 15-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara manages 70 combined yards. Carr throws for under 200 yards and a score to Foster Moreau. Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 40 yards. Jones also throws for under 200 yards and one TD, hitting Kendrick Bourne, but a Kyle Dugger pick-six ends up being the difference. Patriots 14-13

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+3.5), o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I shouldn't be surprised any more by the Ravens playing Ravens football, no matter how beset by injuries they are. Top cornerback Marlon Humphrey hasn't played a snap yet in 2023; doesn't matter, the defense is still third in QB rating against and seventh in passing yards allowed and completion percentage allowed. J.K. Dobbins is once again lost for the season; doesn't matter, the offense is fourth in rushing yards per game and third in rushing TDs, because it still has Lamar Jackson (for now, anyway – he hasn't played more than 12 games in a season since 2020). Baltimore's the only team in the AFC North above .500 through four weeks, and with Joe Burrow hobbled, Deshaun Watson continuing to cause drama in Cleveland and Pittsburgh going through some things, a division that's normally an all-out war straight through to Christmas could be there for the taking.

The Steelers got absolutely humbled last week against the Texans, and in a way I'm not used to seeing a Mike Tomlin team get squashed. The Kenny Pickett injury wasn't the issue, although it didn't help – they were shut out 16-0 in the first half, long before Pickett got knocked out of the game. OC Matt Canada is getting scapegoated, to the point there's a theory on the empty husk that used to be Twitter that Canada's using a burner account to defend his play-calling, but let's not ignore the fact that the defense just let a rookie QB in his fourth career start tear it up for 306 yards and two TDs. With the Steelers on bye in Week 6, shutting Pickett down probably makes the most sense, but can you really trust Mitch Trubisky in this game? No matter who's under center, a loss here puts them in a hole they might not have the horses to climb out of.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (questionable, foot), WR Odell Beckham (questionable, ankle)
PIT injuries: QB Pickett (questionable, knee), WR Diontae Johnson (IR, hamstring), TE Pat Freiermuth (doubtful, hamstring), EDGE Cameron Heyward (IR, groin), LB Cole Holcomb (questionable, back)

BAL DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Mark Andrews $5,500 DK / $7,600 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)
PIT DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4 PIT, average score 20-18 BAL, average margin of victory six points. The last six meetings have been decided by five points or fewer
Key stat: BAL is first in red-zone conversions at 80.0 percent (12-for-15); PIT is 22nd in red-zone defense at 63.6 percent (7-for-11)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 15-20 mph wind, 25-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gus Edwards leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards and a TD. Jackson throws for 240 yards and runs for 40, finding Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman for touchdowns. Najee Harris ekes out 40 yards. Trubisky starts and throws for under 200 yards, getting picked off twice but hitting Calvin Austin for a score. Ravens 24-10

LATE SUNDAY

Cincinnati at Arizona (+3), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

I'm sorry, what the heck have the Bengals done to deserve to be road favorites here? Through four weeks, Cincy is the only team in the NFL that has yet to produce 1,000 yards of offense, while the defense is in the bottom 10 in yards allowed. That's not a great combo. The decision to have Joe Burrow play through his calf injury – or, if you prefer, the decision not to find a real backup quarterback in the offseason – is looking like one that might cost the team a playoff spot. A 1-3 record isn't insurmountable, but time's a-ticking, and the Bengals need at least a split of their next two games before Burrow can heal up over their Week 7 bye to have any kind of chance at making noise in the second half. Oh, by the way, their first two games after that bye? At San Francisco, then home to the Bills.

The Cardinals are 1-3, which is one more win than most folks predicted, but it's a scrappy 1-3. Even against the 49ers they went down swinging, falling behind early but closing to within a score late in the third quarter before Christian McCaffrey finally put them away with his third TD of the day. Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation, producing five TDs over the last three games with a 71.0 percent completion rate, a 7.3 YPA and zero turnovers – a stretch in which he faced two of the league's elite defenses in the Niners and Cowboys. With Kyler Murray still lacking any kind of timeline for his return, the 28-year-old Dobbs could wind up being this year's Geno Smith. The defense has given up over 416 yards and 27 points a game during that time though, and it's perhaps not a coincidence that those are the three games Budda Baker's been on the IR. The roster isn't talented enough to survive the loss of one of its few remaining stars, something that likely applies to the offense too, should James Conner have his annual breakdown.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ribs), TE Irv Smith (questionable, hamstring)
ARI injuries: QB Kyler Murray (PUP, knee), S Baker (IR, hamstring)

CIN DFS targets: Burrow $6,200 DK / $7,000 FD (ARI 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), Joe Mixon $6,400 DK / $7,000 FD (ARI t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tyler Boyd $4,500 DK / $6,200 FD (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
ARI DFS targets: Conner $5,800 DK / $6,500 FD (CIN 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed), Zach Ertz $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is 10th in third-down conversions at 42.9 percent; CIN is 21st in third-down defense at 42.3 percent

The Scoop: Mixon gains 70 combined yards. Burrow throws for under 200 yards but hits Boyd for a score. Conner piles up 100 yards and a TD. Dobbs throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Ertz and Michael Wilson. Cardinals 27-13

Philadelphia at L.A. Rams (+4.5), o/u 50.5
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

There are only two undefeated teams left in the NFL, and the Eagles are one of them. So why does it feel like they've had a disappointing start? Maybe it's the fact that three of those wins were by one score over teams, even against teams they should have outclassed – like last week's overtime nail-biter over the Commanders, that could easily have been a loss had Ron Rivera gone for two at the end of regulation instead of settling for OT. There's nothing wrong with the offense, at least. D'Andre Swift is producing the way he never got a chance to in Detroit, at least one of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have scored or topped 100 yards in every contest, and Jalen Hurts has delivered eight TDs in four games. It's the defense that hasn't quite been holding its own. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins each had their best performances of the year so far against Philly, and Sam Howell wasn't far off. The secondary hasn't been at full strength since Week 1, which has been part of the problem, but all three of Darius Slay, James Bradberry and Avonte Maddox were on the field against the Patriots. If the Eagles round into form on that side of the ball, they'll be fine. If not, well, Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo and San Francisco all loom later in their schedule.

The Rams also snuck away with an OT win last week, surviving a fourth-quarter collapse in Indy that saw them blow a 15-point lead, only for the legend of Puka Nacua to grow in the extra quarter. Heck of a way to score your first career NFL touchdown, kid. Nacua has a Cooper Kupp-like 39-501-1 line on 52 targets through four games, but Kupp himself is now back at practice and Matthew Stafford is going to have to make a decision soon enough on who his bestie really is. Lost a bit in the shadow of Pukamania has been Kyren Williams' six touchdowns and 346 scrimmage yards despite three of the Rams' opponents (Seattle, San Francisco and Indianapolis) having good to great run defenses. Philly's front seven might be even better though, so the 2022 fifth-round pick could have a hard time keeping the TDs coming.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
LAR injuries: RB Williams (questionable, hip), WR Kupp (IR, hamstring)

PHI DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: Tyler Higbee $4,100 DK / $5,300 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Williams $6,700 DK / $7,800 FD (PHI first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed)

Key stat: PHI is t-4th (with MIA) in drives ending in a score at 51.1 percent; LAR are 21st in opponent's drives ending in a score at 39.5 percent

The Scoop: Swift goes off again for 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Hurts throws for 300 yards and two scores, hitting Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Dallas Goedert. Williams manages 60 yards. Stafford throws for 310 yards and three TDs, two to Higbee and one to Nacua (who tops 100 yards). Eagles 34-27

N.Y. Jets (+2) at Denver, o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I can't believe it's already time for the Nathaniel Hackett Bowl! The former Broncos head coach is now the offensive coordinator for the Jets, bring his own special brand of magic to a unit that's averaging 15.5 points a week so far. Things may be looking up for Gang Green, though. Last week's narrow loss to Kansas City produced their first game of the season with over 300 yards of offense, and Zach Wilson looked downright competent (until he lost a fumble that ended the Jets' final drive midway through the fourth quarter, anyway.) Perhaps more importantly, Breece Hall is getting the training wheels taken off. The second-year back has yet to see more than 29 snaps or 13 touches in a game as he got eased back into action following last year's knee injury, but coach Robert Saleh says there will be no more restrictions on his workload. Again, this is a guy who gained 109 yards on his first two carries of the season. Good thing they went easy on him early, I guess. The secondary is banged up, but the defense overall is better than its surface numbers – it's not their fault the offense is dead last in time of possession and number of plays run – so if Hall can keep Sauce Gardner and company off the field and let them catch their breath every now and then, and/or Wilson figures it out, the Aaron Rodgers injury may not have ended their season after all.

Facing Hackett's new team is the roster he turned into a smoldering crater in 2022. I'm not letting Sean Payton completely off the hook for Denver's brutal start, but let's not forget the Broncos coughed up 51 points to the Baker Mayfield Rams last Christmas. The defense that surrendered 70 to the Dolphins, or even 28 to the Bears (I'm not sure which is worse, to be honest) still looks an awful lot like that one, no matter what changes have been made on the coaching staff. Payton does at least seem to be fixing Russell Wilson, who's posted an 8.0 YPA or better in three straight weeks with a 7:2 TD:INT, but unlike Hall for the Jets, Javonte Williams has not looked like his pre-injury self to begin 2023. Jaleel McLaughlin came out of nowhere last week to plug that hole, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him supplant Samaje Perine on the depth chart, but without an effective Williams in the No. 1 role, it doesn't much matter who's the No. 2.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DEN injuries: RB Williams (questionable, quadriceps), TE Greg Dulcich (IR, hamstring), S Justin Simmons (questionable, hip)

NYJ DFS targets: Wilson $4,900 DK / $6,700 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Hall $5,400 DK / $6,500 FD (DEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Garrett Wilson $6,000 DK / $7,400 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Allen Lazard $3,900 DK / $5,900 FD (DEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR2), Randall Cobb $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (DEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
DEN DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in third-down conversions at 26.5 percent; DEN is 24th in third-down defense at 45.2 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hall picks up 70 yards and a score. ZWilson throws for 200 yards and a TD to GWilson. McLaughlin leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. RWilson throws for 270 yards and three TDs, one each to Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims and Adam Trautman. Broncos 28-17

Kansas City at Minnesota (+5), o/u 53 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The defending champs (Taylor's version) got past the Jets last week, winning their third straight, but it's been an odd winning streak – Kansas City's committed multiple turnovers in every victory, and only the Vikings, Raiders and Browns have given the ball away more often through four weeks. Patrick Mahomes has had a slow start to 2023, which in his case means he's still on pace for over 4,200 yards and 30 TDs. Oh, and a career high in rushing yards too, which might hint at what the problem's been on offense so far -- the o-line is working in two new starting tackles, after all. (When people talk during draft season about how important floor is with your early picks, not just ceiling, this is what they're talking about.) Maybe the issue is less about time in the pocket and more a lack of separation from his receivers, though. No Kansas City wideout has broken out of the pack yet – rookie Rashee Rice has arguably been the most consistent, but he only has a 13-140-1 line on 19 targets, which is hardly Pro Bowl material. Even Travis Kelce's not producing at his usual rate, and exactly the mouth-breathers you would expect are already claiming his dating habits are a distraction, not just for him or the team but the whole NFL. Uh-huh. Sounds like you just don't want girl cooties in your foozball, fellas. I'll never understand why people are so eager to flaunt their fragile egos in public.

The Vikes barely escaped an 0-4 start to their season, managing to beat the Panthers last week despite a season-worst performance from their offense. Never forget the golden rule of rostering Kirk Cousins on your fantasy teams – whenever you feel comfortable, or even confident, having him active, that's when he's going to flop. Alexander Mattison is looking like a classic matchup-dependent play, though, even before you factor int Cam Akers cutting into his workload – he's topped 90 rushing yards against two opponents with sub-par run defenses, and couldn't get to 40 against solid front sevens. (Kansas City's been closer in quality to the Bucs than the Bolts against the run so far, by the way.) The defense's best weapon has been an opposition that beats itself, as both the Eagles and Chargers pretty much did what they wanted on offense against Minnesota, which doesn't bode well at all for this game. Justin Jefferson remains amazing, but right now, no one else on this team can really be trusted.

The Skinny

KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

KC DFS targets: Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4,100 DK / $5,400 FD (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
MIN DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is third in third-down conversions at 49.1 percent; MIN is 16th in third-down defense at 39.3 percent

The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco rumbles for 80 yards and a score, while Jerick McKinnon also catches a TD. Mahomes throws for 310 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Rice and MVS. Mattison grinds out 50 yards. Cousins throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Jefferson and Hockenson, and a Jordan Hicks fumble recovery touchdown keeps things close. Kansas City 28-24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Dallas (+3.5) at San Francisco, o/u 45 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The week's marquee matchup sees the undefeated 49ers taking on the should-be undefeated Cowboys, except they ruined the NFL's marketing plan by getting lost in the desert in Week 3. Dallas rebounded last week to stomp all over New England, the same way they did the Giants and Jets. Maybe it's just an east coast thing? The defense has been on another level – the Cowboys have four defensive or special teams touchdowns in four games while only giving up four TDs (two on the ground, two through the air – and three of those came against Arizona), while also sitting with 10 takeaways (tied for second) and 14 sacks (tied for fifth). That performance from Dan Quinn's unit has covered for an offense that's been, well, fairly average. Dak Prescott hasn't needed to do too much but has kept the mistakes to a minimum, while Tony Pollard has topped 100 scrimmage yards in two of four games. Given the talent on the unit, they can probably do better if they need to, but it's not always easy to just flip the switch like that. On the other hand, maybe that first month of coasting while the defense did the heavy lifting will just act as an extended preseason for the offense. We're probably about to find out.

The Niners' steamroller has been a thing of beauty. They've scored at least 30 points in four straight games, and have yet to allow more than 23 (and have held three opponents to 16 or less.) They aren't just winning; they're crushing everything in their path. Brock Purdy has one incompletion last week against the Cards, and four completions of 20 or more yards. Christian McCafrrey has found the end zone in every game, and has seven TDs in total. Everything's working right now, but it could also be argued that this is their first real test. Statistically, these are the two best teams in the NFC, sitting one and two in both points scored (with the Niners on top) and points allowed (the Cowboys lead in that one), and even the recent history between them is intriguing. San Francisco's won playoff games against Dallas each of the last two years – a 23-17 victory in the 2021 wild-card round, and a 19-12 win in last season's divisional round – but the Niners haven't won a regular-season game against the Cowboys since 2014. Prescott is actually 2-0 in the regular season against the NFC West club, and both wins came in Levi's Stadium. Then again, Chip Kelly was the 49ers' coach for one of them, and they had Blaine Gabbert and C.J. Beathard under center, so maybe we shouldn't read too much into that.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: EDGE Micah Parsons (questionable, knee)
SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (questionable, knee), WR Deebo Samuel (questionable, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, ankle)

DAL DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Jake Ferguson $3,700 DK / $5,300 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: Purdy $5,700 DK / $6,900 FD (DAL first in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed), McCaffrey $9,400 DK / $10,700 FD (DAL first in passing DVOA vs. RB), Ray-Ray McCloud $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DAL is 30th in red-zone conversions at 36.8 percent (7-for-19), but t-1st in red-zone trips; SF is t-23rd in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent, but fourth in red-zone trips allowed

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pollard surprises with 110 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert. CMac responds with 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Purdy throws for 270 yards and three TDs, one each to George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Kyle Juszczyk. 49ers 28-24

THURSDAY NIGHT

Chicago (+5.5) at Washington, o/u 44.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Bears are one of just two winless teams left in the NFL after their epic collapse last week against the Broncos. (Amazingly, the other team with zero victories is the Panthers, meaning Chicago is the early favorite to pick first and second in the 2024 draft thanks to the trade that netted Carolina their new franchise QB in Bryce Young. Well played, Ryan Poles.) It's been a total team effort for the Bears to be this bad – only three other clubs have committed more turnovers on offense, while only one is giving up more yards per play on defense. At least Justin Fields seems to realize his job's in jeopardy, setting new career highs with 335 passing yards and four TDs against Denver. Of course, he also coughed up the fumble that became the tying score in a game Chicago led 28-7 with less than five minutes left in the third quarter. Khalil Herbert, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet all had big games along with Fields, and while I do enjoy trying to identify the dart-throw tight ends and depth receivers who are going to score fluky TDs in any given week, it's nice sometimes when the fantasy tree is narrow and predictable.

Think Ron Rivera regrets not going for that two-point conversion now? The Commanders very nearly walked into Philly and pulled off an upset for the second straight season, but an early 17-7 lead eventually turned into an overtime loss, and Washington finds itself at 2-2. Rivera's crew has beaten who they should have beaten and lost to who they should have lost to, and if you pretend the Buffalo game never happened, Sam Howell has a respectable 4:1 TD:INT on the season. More encouragingly, the second-year QB started clicking with both Terry McLaurin (season-high 10 targets) and Jahan Dotson (clutch TD as time expired in the fourth quarter) last week, and Howell has the weapons to start posting big numbers if that trio gets into a groove. Chase Young also looks healthy and finally ready to start making an impact off the edge, recording 2.5 sacks in three games. He was the second overall pick in 2020 for a reason, and a game against the team that ranks 30th in sacks allowed so far with 17 should allow both him and Montez Sweat to get frisky. The flip side of that equation is also true – Washington ranks 32nd in sacks allowed, and Howell's been brought down a whopping 24 times – but Yannick Ngakoue might be the only Bear capable of taking advantage.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
WAS injuries: WR Dotson (questionable, ankle), WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, quadriceps)

CHI DFS targets: Equanimeous St. Brown $3,000 DK / $4,300 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
WAS DFS targets: Howell $5,200 DK / $7,000 FD (CHI 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed)

CHI DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: WAS is t-11th in red-zone conversions at 60.0 percent (9-for-15); CHI is 30th in red-zone defense at 80.0 percent (12-for-15)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Herbert gains 70 scrimmage yards. Fields throws for 210 yards and a TD to Moore while adding 40 yards and a score on the ground, but he gets sacked five times and picked off twice. Brian Robinson collects 80 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Howell throws for 260 yards and a second TD to McLaurin. Commanders 27-17

Last week's record: 10-6, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 o/u
2023 record: 38-26, 31-30-3 ATS, 39-24-1 o/u