Box Score Breakdowns: Snaps, Routes and Air Yards from the Divisional Round

With just four games to analyze this week, I'm going to discuss some upcoming offseason storylines for the four eliminated teams. Also, GO RAVENS!

Vocab/Index

• DB = QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks
• RTs = Routes
• RT% = Percentage of team dropbacks on which the player ran a route
• aDOT = Average Depth of Target
• AY = Air Yards
• TS SZN = Percentage of team targets this season
• AY SZN = Percentage of team air yards this season

Personnel Groupings

• 11 = 1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR
• 12 = 1 RB / 2 TE / 2 WR
• 21 = 2 RB / 1 TE / 2 WR

Any RB/WR/TE with a target, carry or snap share of at least 10 percent is listed below. Any personnel grouping used on at least 10 percent of snaps is listed, in addition to rates for 11 and 12 personnel (by far the two most popular sets league-wide).

Texans (10) at Ravens (34) 

Texans Personnel: 11 - 70% / 12 - 19%

47 Plays — 33 DBs — 6.5 aDOT — 19-of-33 for 175 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• RB Dameon Pierce didn't play at all, though Devin Singletary lost more snaps to Dare Ogunbowale than usual with the Texans trailing throughout the second half.
  • Singletary got 76% of snaps before the fourth quarter and then 46% in the final frame.
• FB Andrew Beck played only five snaps, perhaps because he entered the weekend listed as questionable with a back injury.
  • The Texans ended up using more 11 personnel than usual and less 21 personnel.
• WR John Metchie was second among the WRs in snaps and routes but finished without any targets.
  • Robert Woods was the No. 3, and Xavier Hutchinson No. 4.
• Singletary, WR Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz accounted for 23 of the 31 targets.
  • Schultz had a bad drop early but played a solid game otherwise.
• The Texans currently are scheduled for $69 million in cap space this offseason, albeit with Schultz, Singletary, WR Noah Brown (shoulder), LB Denzel Perryman, DL Jonathan Greenard, CB Steven Nelson and a bunch of secondary contributors scheduled for free agency.
  • None of those guys will require huge contracts, but it's not nothing to have 12 guys that topped 40% snap share for the season headed to free agency.
    • It's still a good situation, with the only huge contracts belonging to OTs Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard (knee).
    • WR Robert Woods is a likely cap casualty, with his release freeing up $5 million.
    • Texans 2024 OTC cap sheet

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 28% / 12 - 16% / 21 - 25% / 22 - 13% / 20 - 12%

67 Plays — 25 DBs — 7.6 aDOT — 16-of-22 for 152 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 3 sacks

• Many, including myself, thought Odell Beckham would get more playing time once the playoffs began. Instead, Beckham played less than he had during most regular season games, finishing fourth among Baltimore wide receivers in snaps/routes/targets.
  • Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor both ran more than twice as many routes as OBJ.
• RB Justice Hill played at least 56% of snaps in each of the first three quarters and then took 48% in the fourth.
• RB Dalvin Cook got just one snap before the fourth quarter and took each of his eight carries on the final two drives. The first of those carries went for 19 yards, but after that he didn't find much room to run.
• RB Gus Edwards appeared to suffer a hand/wrist injury early in the fourth quarter. He got his final carry/snap with about 11 minutes remaining. 
  • Edwards took 40% of snaps before the fourth quarter, taking eight carries and two targets (with Hill getting seven and two, respectively, on 62% snap share).

Stock ⬆️:   RB Justice Hill

Stock ⬇️:   WR Odell Beckham

  Ravens Injuries 🚑: RB Gus Edwards (hand/wrist)

  Texans Injuries 🚑: RS Steven Sims (concussion) / CB Steven Nelson (concussion) / LB Denzel Perryman (head/neck)       

Packers (21) at 49ers (24) 

Packers Personnel: 11 - 61% / 12 - 39%

62 Plays — 34 DBs — 6.2 aDOT — 21-of-34 for 194 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 0 sacks

• RB Aaron Jones matched his season-high 82% snap share from Week 18 and topped 100 yards rushing for a fifth straight game.
  • Emanuel Wilson and Patrick Taylor split the backup snaps, after Wilson handled the role alone the week prior.
• TE Tucker Kraft got 86% of snaps and 62% route share, with Luke Musgrave at 29% and 35% respectively. 
  • Musgrave caught passes on back-to-back snaps on the opening drive but was merely Green Bay's No. 2 TE for a second straight week.
    • It'll be hard to draft either Musgrave or Kraft with confidence next year. Musgrave was the earlier draft pick and the starter for most of the season, but then Kraft played well after his teammate suffered a kidney laceration. And Musgrave never retook the No. 1 role in three games upon returning.
• WR Romeo Doubs was a near-full-time player on the perimeter, with Jayden Reed mostly manning the slot and Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks essentially splitting the other outside job.
  • Bo Melton also played some, and scored a 19-yard TD on one of his six routes.
  • All of these guys have at least two years remaining on rookie contracts, so the competition for playing time and targets should be interesting next summer. I expected Doubs to be the odd man out (long term) a few weeks ago, but then he had back-to-back big showings in the playoffs while getting more snaps, routes and targets than all the other guys.
• The Packers are schedule to be right up against the 2024 salary cap, but their group of impending free agents might be the weakest in the league and they can easily free up tens of millions by cutting/extending/renegotiating some of their older players, including LT David Bakhtiari (who missed every game besides Week 1 due to knee problems).
  • It's one of the better situations in the league, and the Packers can free up $21 million just by moving on from Bakhtiari. They can also lower Aaron Jones' $17 million cap hit with an extension, though it'll be hard to get QB Jordan Love's cap hit much below the current number ($12.8) given the size of the extension he's seemingly earned.
    • Remember that Love signed a two-year deal in lieu of his fifth-year option this past spring. The Packers presumably want to give him a long-term deal now.
  • Packers 2024 OTC cap sheet

49ers Personnel: 11 - 55% / 12 - 3% / 21 - 31% / 22 - 11%

64 Plays — 40 DBs — 7.0 aDOT — 23-of-39 for 252 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• WR Deebo Samuel injured his shoulder on the opening drive. He tried to play through the injury but ended up missing nearly all of the second quarter and the entire second half.
  • Jauan Jennings stepped up big-time in Samuel's stead with a 5-61-0 receiving line on six targets.
  • Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud essentially split the No. 3 WR role.
• RB Christian McCaffrey played every snap but one and saw 29 opportunities.

Stock ⬆️:   RB Aaron Jones / WR Romeo Doubs / WR Jauan Jennings

Stock ⬇️:   WR Christian Watson

  Packers Injuries 🚑: RT Zach Tom (concussion)    

  49ers Injuries 🚑: WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) 

Buccaneers (23) at Lions (31) 

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 82% / 12 - 18%

60 Plays — 45 DBs — 7.8 aDOT — 26-of-41 for 349 yards — 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 sacks

• RB Rachaad White got 78% of snaps and 14 of the 20 RB opportunities.
• TE Cade Otton had another big game. He saw more than six targets just three times all year, but two of those came in the playoffs and both resulted in big receiving lines (8-89-0 on 11 tgts / 5-65-1 on eight tgts).
  • He's not my favorite 2024 breakout candidate at TE, but he's on the list.
• WR David Moore lost playing time compared to the previous week, with No. 3 Trey Palmer playing more and No. 5 Deven Thompkins also having a role.
• WR Mike Evans goes out with a bang after surprisingly enjoying one of his best seasons yet while working with QB Baker Mayfield.
  • Mayfield is an impending free agent and should find a starting job somewhere (probably Tampa).
    • Evans is also scheduled for free agency, as are LBs Devin White and Lavonte David and starting LG Aaron Stinnie.
    • The Bucs are scheduled for $47 million in cap space, so they definitely have the option of bringing back Mayfield, Evans and one of the linebackers (if not both). Whether they're willing to pay for it is another question, perhaps.
    • Bucs 2024 OTC Cap Sheet
      • Note that releasing Russell Gage (ACL) would clear up $6.5 million in cap space, though he may need to pass a physical before that can happen.

Lions Personnel: 11 - 47% / 12 - 38%

71 Plays — 45 DBs — 6.4 aDOT — 30-of-43 for 287 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks

• RB Jahmyr Gibbs had a 31-yard rushing TD early in the fourth quarter to finish off a five-play drive on which he took four touches for 57 yards (and the TD). He outgained/outscored David Montgomery on that drive alone, though Monty got more snaps and routes.
  • Craig Reynolds got six snaps, after taking seven the week before, including a one-yard TD on a 4th-and-1 late in the third quarter. He was the lone RB on that play, and it was his only touch on 13 snaps this postseason.
    • Maybe they used Reynolds so Tampa would expect a pass? IDK, but it worked. Detroit's O-line blew the Bucs off the ball for an easy Reynolds TD.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta both got double-digit targets while no other Lion had more than four.
• WR Josh Reynolds took more snaps/routes than Jameson Williams again.
  • No. 2 TE Brock Wright suffered a broken forearm in the second half. His absence next week could encourage more 11 personnel against the 49ers, which would help Williams get on the field more (and might also give Reynolds a couple extra snaps).
    • Though it is possible WR Kalif Raymond (knee) makes it back and takes a few snaps away from one or both guys. Raymond has missed both playoff games after suffering a knee injury Week 18.
    • The Lions are signing Zach Ertz. I'm not sure he has much value as a No. 2 TE given that he isn't much of a blocker and has just six days to learn the playbook, but who knows...

Stock ⬆️:   WR Josh Reynolds

Stock ⬇️:   RB David Montgomery

   Injuries 🚑: CB Jamel Dean (back) / S Kaevon Merriweather (ankle) / LB Anthony Nelson (elbow)

  Lions Injuries 🚑: G Jonah Jackson (knee) / TE Brock Wright (forearm)

Chiefs (27) at Bills (24) 

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 40% / 12 - 34% / 13 - 23%

47 Plays — 23 DBs — 7.9 aDOT — 17-of-23 for 215 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• RB Isiah Pacheco got 72% of snaps and 16 of the 19 RB opportunities, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire taking the rest.
• WR Rashee Rice noticed a significant drop off in snap and route shares relative to previous games, though he still tied for second on the team with four targets on a low-volume day for the Chiefs offense.
• WR Justin Watson also played less than in previous games, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling playing more and catching two passes for 30-plus yards.
  • Mecole Hardman played a bit more as well, though his only "highlight" was fumbling the ball through the end zone for a turnover that could've cost Kansas City the game.
• TE Travis Kelce had a vintage showing, with both of the team's receiving TDs and more than one-fourth of the targets.

Bills Personnel: 11 - 46% / 12 - 18% / 6OL - 27%

78 Plays — 39 DBs — 5.5 aDOT — 26-of-39 for 186 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks

• RB James Cook got 23 of the 38 RB opportunities on 51% snap share.
  • Cook helped the Bills win the AFC South with his surge in November and early December, but ultimately the "rejuvenated" running game struggled by the end of the season apart from QB Josh Allen.
  • The problem with Cook is that he's just not that good. He's neither fast, nor strong, by starting RB standards. He does some of the little things well, but he's not a guy you want taking 20 touches per game (even if he put up big fantasy stats for a month while doing so).
• TE Dawson Knox suffered a head/neck injury in the fourth quarter but returned in short order.
  • Same for Khalil Shakir, though his appeared to be more of a shoulder injury. The Chiefs were knocking the snot out of the Bills in the fourth quarter, and I'm sure nobody would ever question if concussion protocols were properly followed.
    • Shakir had a key fourth-down conversion shortly after his return to the game, and he led the Bills in targets and scored their only receiving TD.
• TE Dalton Kincaid handled 62% of snaps and 80% of routes, with 5-45-0 on five targets and a few big catches down the stretch (he did an especially nice job turning a couple screen passes into solid gains despite shaky blocking).
• The Bills are scheduled to be $40 million over the 2024 cap, though huge base salaries for Josh Allen ($23.5 million), Stefon Diggs ($18.5 million) and Von Miller ($17.1 million) provide an easy-ish avenue for clearing up a bunch of space via renegotiations.
  • The problem? It might not be the best idea to kick the can down the road with 31-year-old Diggs and 35-year-old Miller. The former simply didn't do much this year, and the latter struggled the past 2-3 months after a hot start.
    • You're never going full rebuild with Allen on the roster, but I might consider a mini-rebuild rather than doubling/tripling down again.
      • On the other hand, their FA class isn't all that strong, with highlights being WR Gabe Davis (knee), S Micah Hyde, LB Tyrel Dodson and DE A.J. Epenesa.
    • Bills 2024 OTC Cap Sheet

Stock ⬆️:   TE Dalton Kincaid / WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Stock ⬇️:   WR Justin Watson

  Chiefs Injuries 🚑: G Joe Thuney (pectoral)