Exploiting the Matchups: Week 7 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Kirk Cousins (vs. SEA) — 28% started

Start Over — Anthony Richardson (vs. MIA), Jared Goff (at MIN), Sam Darnold (vs. DET)

After beating up on Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson in Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks have allowed three consecutive QBs to score 22 or more PPR points during a three-game losing streak in which their defense has dealt with numerous injuries. Their front seven looks healthier with the help of extra rest time after a TNF loss to San Francisco, only now the secondary is more of an issue with starting cornerbacks Tre Brown (ankle) and Riq Woolen (ankle) absent from practice to start the week. This should be a high-scoring game in general, as suggested by the 51 over/under, with both teams ranking Top 5 in pace and no-huddle rate (overall and in neutral situations). It's a good matchup for all of Atlanta's key players, not just Cousins specifically.

• Other Good Matchups: Lamar Jackson (at TB), Jayden Daniels (vs. CAR), Justin Herbert (at ARZ)

Running Backs 👍

• J.K. Dobbins (at ARZ) — 73% started

Start Over — David Montgomery (at MIN), James Cook (vs. TEN), Najee Harris (vs. NYJ)

Dobbins played at least 65 percent of snaps in each of the Chargers' last three games, peaking at 73 percent this past Sunday while putting up 102 total yards and a TD in a 23-16 win over Denver. His per-carry efficiency has fallen off hard since beating up on the Raiders and Panthers in Weeks 1-2, but there's a chance to rebound this Monday against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in success rate (46.2) against designed runs, 24th in EPA/carry (-0.05) and 19th in YPC (4.6). Five RBs have topped 15 PPR points versus Arizona this year, including three with 20-plus.

• Antonio Gibson (at JAX) — 15% started

Start Over — Bucky Irving or Sean Tucker (vs. BAL), Zack Moss (at CLE), Alexander Mattison (at LAR)

Gibson fell flat in his first start of the season, managing just 43 yards on 16 touches against a tough Houston front. It looks like he'll get a second chance in a more favorable spot, as Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) still isn't practicing ahead of Sunday's matchup with a Jacksonville defense that's allowed the fifth most PPR points and second most receiving yards to RBs. Gibson got all but four of New England's RB carries prior to the final drive in garbage time last week, hinting at real workload upside if the Patriots can keep things close this time around.

• Other Good Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. LV), Brian Robinson & Austin Ekeler (vs. CAR), Alexander Mattison (at LAR), Javonte Williams (at NO), Nick Chubb (vs. CIN)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Diontae Johnson (at WAS) — 64% started

Start Over — Tyreek Hill (at IND), Brandon Aiyuk (vs. KC), Jayden Reed (vs. HOU)

Johnson got back on the board this past Sunday after a poor Week 5, making it three times in four Andy Dalton starts that the wideout has scored a TD while drawing double-digit targets. He'll probably cool off some, but there is some chance he's a legit fantasy WR1 in his current context, averaging 6.0 catches for 76.5 yards and 0.75 TDs on 10.8 targets since Dalton took over as the starter. Expect another solid showing this week in a game with the highest over/under (51.5) of Week 7, facing a leaky Washington secondary that's given up the fifth most PPR points to WRs and the sixth most yards per target (8.9).

Note: Johnson missed a second straight practice Thursday, suggesting he may have suffered a setback/aggravation with the ankle injury he's been playing through this month. His Week 7 value is now in flux.

• Jordan Addison (vs. DET) — 35% started

Start Over — Jameson Williams (at MIN), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at ATL), Amari Cooper (vs. TEN)

The Lions remade their secondary this offseason but haven't really changed from a matchup standpoint, allowing the third fewest PPR points to running backs and the fourth most to wide receivers. That's largely been due to a pass-funnel effect, with the pass-defense efficiency actually improving considerably, but that may not hold up now that superstar DE Aidan Hutchinson (leg) is out of the picture (plus, top CB Carlton Davis is in concussion protocol). 

Hutchinson's absence will give QB Sam Darnold to look downfield for Addison and Justin Jefferson — a phenomenal duo that may be featured to an even greater extent than usual with RB Aaron Jones (hip/hamstring) in serious danger of missing Sunday's game. It also helps that the Lions play a ton of man coverage (43.0 percent, third-highest rate), which tends to push the ball toward WRs rather than TEs and RBs. On other teams, a player with Addison's ability to damage downfield might face a lot of safety help against man coverage. For Minnesota, opponents focus on stopping Jefferson and hope for the best so far as Addison is concerned. It's the perfect situation for Addison to hit a couple of splash plays.

• Other Good Matchups: Justin Jefferson (vs. DET), Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman (at TB), Mike Evans (vs. BAL), Terry McLaurin & Noah Brown (vs. CAR), Ladd McConkey (at ARZ), Drake London, Darnell Mooney & Ray-Ray McCloud (vs. SEA) DeMario Douglas & Kayshon Boutte (vs. JAX)

Tight Ends 👍

• Dalton Schultz (at GB) — 34% started

Start Over —  Pat Freiermuth (vs. NYJ), Mark Andrews (at TB)

The Packers have allowed the third most PPR points to tight ends despite playing half their games against teams (TEN, IND, MIN) that have gotten minimal receiving production from the position.  That's not to say they're any pushover on defense, or even for tight ends specifically, but it's at least another favorable trend after Schultz saw a season-high eight targets in the first game since Nico Collins (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve. Expect more production the next few weeks now that Schultz is the clear third option in a productive passing game, behind only WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.

• Other Good Matchups: Brock Bowers (at LAR), Zach Ertz (vs. CAR), Colby Parkinson (vs. LV), Jonnu Smith (at IND)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Aaron Rodgers (at PIT) — 14% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (at ATL), Sam Darnold (vs. DET)

The Davante Adams trade brightens Rodgers' outlook for the rest of the season, but it's not enough to immediately turn a mediocre fantasy option into a strong one for a road game against a top defense. The Steelers have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, with Dak Prescott (18.4 points) the only one so far to throw for more than 246 yards. Pittsburgh may even get OLB Alex Highsmith (groin) back in action for the first time since Week 3, having listed him as a limited practice participant to start the week. Highsmith and T.J. Watt are the best pass-rushing duo in the league, bar none.

• Other Tough Matchups: Josh Allen (vs. TEN), Joe Burrow (at CLE), Brock Purdy (vs. KC), Patrick Mahomes (at SF)

Running Backs 👎

• James Conner (vs. LAC) — 82% started

Start Instead — Chuba Hubbard (at WAS), Tony Pollard (at BUF), J.K. Dobbins (at ARZ)

The Chargers haven't faced a top RB yet, but their run defense has been impressive even when taking that into consideration, ranking fourth in success rate (35.1 percent) against designed runs, fifth in EPA/carry (-0.26) and 10th in YPC (4.1). No running back has scored 15 PPR points against them since Alexander Mattison put up 16.2 behind a 4-43-1 receiving line in the season opener, with the Chargers subsequently limiting Chuba Hubbard to 76 scoreless yards, Najee Harris to 86 scoreless yards and Kareem Hunt to 85 scoreless yards. 

Conner, meanwhile, is averaging his least PPR points (13.2) since 2020, coming off a game at Green Bay in which he was benched for the second half due to some combination of an ankle injury and lost fumble. He'll still be the lead runner if he's healthy, but the receiving production has dried up ever since the Cardinals installed Emari Demercado as their passing-down back last season, and now there's some risk of rookie Trey Benson stealing carries as well. 

• Chase Brown (at CLE) — 43% started

Start Instead — Najee Harris (vs. NYJ), Kareem Hunt (at SF), Brian Robinson (vs. CAR)

The hype surrounding Brown is mostly reasonable, as there's a real chance he takes on a much larger role for Week 7 after playing 91 percent of snaps in the wake of Zack Moss' lost fumble Sunday night against the Giants. That's enough to make him a decent lineup option in most leagues, but it should be treated as a lower-confidence play (i.e. mid-to-low RB2) given the combination of workload uncertainty and a difficult road matchup. The Browns have allowed the 11th fewest PPR points to RBs despite facing a lot of negative game script, and their defense remains generally strong amid the organizational chaos.

• Other Tough Matchups: David Montgomery (at MIN), Jordan Mason or Isaac Guerendo (vs. KC),  Bucky Irving & Sean Tucker (vs. BAL), Zack Moss (at CLE),

Wide Receivers 👎

• George Pickens (vs. NYJ) — 55% started

Start Instead —  Brian Thomas (vs. NE), Jameson Williams (at MIN), Jordan Addison (vs. DET)

The presumed switch to Russell Wilson could work out for Pickens long term, seeing as the one thing Wilson still does well is throwing deep toward the sideline. For the immediate future, Pickens has a bigger problem than uncertainty at QB, facing a talented Jets secondary that prefers giving up pass-interference penalties rather than receptions. It hasn't been a dominant group the way we saw in 2022 and 2023, but the failures largely have manifested in terms of yellow flags rather than receiving production, with Gang Green allowing the fourth fewest PPR points to wide receivers (after allowing the fewest last year).

• Josh Downs (vs. MIA) — 30% started

Start Instead — Ladd McConkey (at ARZ), Tyler Lockett (at ATL), Christian Kirk (vs. NE)

As great as Downs has been in recent weeks, his volume inevitably will fall off with QB Anthony Richardson returning to the starting job and directing a more run-based offense, not to mention the concerns Richardson creates for catch rate / completion percentage. On top of that, the Colts are facing a Miami defense that's allowed the second fewest PPR points to wide receivers and put star cornerback Jalen Ramsey in the slot the last time they played (Week 5 against New England). It's possible the change was matchup-specific on account of DeMario Douglas being the Patriots' top receiving threat, but one might say the same about Downs and the Colts right now.

• Other Tough Matchups: Amari Cooper & Khalil Shakir (vs. TEN), DeAndre Hopkins & Calvin Ridley (at BUF), Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson & Allen Lazard (at PIT), Brandon Aiyuk & Jauan Jennings (vs. KC), JuJu Smith-Schuster (at SF)

Tight Ends 👎

• Dalton Kincaid (vs. TEN) — 82% started

Start Instead — Sam LaPorta (at MIN), Evan Engram (vs. NE), Kyle Pitts (vs. SEA)

Already somewhat of a fantasy disappointment in Buffalo's run-first offense, Kincaid now faces additional target competition from Amari Cooper and may thus struggle to maintain his average of 6.1 looks per game. The impact may be somewhat mitigated by a higher team pass rate now that Josh Allen has better receivers, but it'll likely be the run game leading the way again this Sunday, as the Bills are the largest favorites (-9) of Week 7 in a game with the third-lowest over/under (41). The Titans actually have played solid defense this year, ranking Top 7 in PPR points allowed to each position (besides kickers), including No. 1 against tight ends (5.2 per game).

• Other Tough Matchups: Tucker Kraft (vs. HOU), Mike Gesicki (at CLE)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Justin Herbert (at ARZ)

QB Matthew Stafford (vs. LV)

RB Tyrone Tracy (vs. PHI)

RB Alexander Mattison (at LAR)

RB Antonio Gibson (at JAX)

WR Ladd McConkey (at ARZ)

WR Tyler Lockett (at ATL)

WR Jerry Jeudy (vs. CIN)

[LOGO[ WR Jakobi Meyers (at LAR)

TE Noah Fant (at ATL)

K Austin Seibert (vs. CAR)

D/ST Bengals (at CLE)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Daniel Jones (vs. PHI)

RB Ray Davis (vs. TEN)

RB Ty Chandler (vs. DET)

RB Trey Sermon (vs. MIA)

RB Isaac Guerendo (vs. KC)

RB Sean Tucker (vs. BAL)

RB Trey Benson (vs. LAC)

WR DeMario Douglas (at JAX)

WR Darius Slayton (vs. PHI)

WR Ray-Ray McCloud (vs. SEA)

WR Michael Wilson (vs. LAC)

TE Zach Ertz (vs. CAR)

K Jason Myers (at ATL)

D/ST Colts (vs. MIA)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Drake Maye (at JAX)

QB Andy Dalton (at WAS)

RB Tyler Goodson (vs. MIA)

RB Jaylen Wright (at IND)

WR Rashod Bateman (at TB)

WR Jordan Whittington (vs. LV)

WR Bub Means (vs. DEN)

WR Kayshon Boutte (at JAX)

TE Juwan Johnson (vs. DEN)

TE Grant Calcaterra (at NYG)

K Will Reichard (vs. DET)

D/ST Rams (vs. LV)

D/ST Jaguars (vs. NE)