Beating the Book: ATS Picks, Score Predictions for Every NFL Week 7 Game

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of Beating the Book.

At long last, we're coming off of a solid Week 6 in which we went 9-5 ATS, 12-2 SU and hit our best bet (Detroit -3.0). After mostly struggling to identify the correct dogs early this season, we didn't have to worry too much about that in Week 6, as favorites ruled the day – road favorites, in particular.

Another notable, league-wide trend: we've seen a sharp increase in overall scoring over the last two weeks. Overs finished 10-3-1 in Week 6, as teams combined to average 49.2 points per game – up from 48.9 in Week 5 and a ghastly 39.6 in Week 2. In both Weeks 5 and 6, more total points were scored than in Weeks 2 or 3, despite having two fewer games on the schedule. For fantasy purposes, fingers crossed that this trend holds.

While we're starting to get a better grasp of the general league hierarchy, the Week 7 board presents some tricky, good team vs. good team spots. The red-hot Lions take on the 5-0 Vikings in Minneapolis, Houston heads to Green Bay and the undefeated Chiefs – coming off of a bye – square off against the 49ers. Those games are just three of the six that currently hold a spread of less than 3.0 points.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have two teams laying more than a touchdown: Buffalo is an 8.5-point favorite at home against Tennessee, while Washington is giving 8.0 to Carolina.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 6 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 6:

Bears -1.5 vs. Jaguars: As anticipated, the Jaguars' offense took a huge step back against one of the league's best defenses. 

Lions -3.0 at Cowboys: While I certainly did not expect Dallas to completely no-show like it did, the Cowboys were a bit overvalued coming off of back-to-back wins over middling offenses in New York and Pittsburgh.

Worst calls of Week 6:

Jets +2.5 vs. Bills: The Jets had opportunity after opportunity to take control of a penalty fest and simply refused to win the game. Fair enough.

Titans +1.5 vs. Colts: This line ended up swinging in favor of the Titans by kickoff, but it did not matter. Will Levis remains a disaster, and Joe Flacco remains inevitable. 

Last week: 9-5 ATS; 12-2 SU; best bet won (Lions -3.0)

On the season: 43-46-3 ATS; 56-36 SU; 2-1-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Broncos -2.5

Total: 37.0

Now this feels more like a true Thursday Night special. The Broncos came back down to earth last week against LA, while the Saints limp into this game – quite literally – on a four-game losing streak. Especially on the offensive side of the ball, the Saints' injury report is about as bad as it gets.

Already down their starting quarterback, and several starting linemen, the Saints could also be without Chris Olave (OUT), Rashid Shaheed (OUT) and Taysom Hill (DOUBTFUL), while Alvin Kamara is also banged up. Injuries aside, New Orleans is in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule. The Saints played at Kansas City on Monday night in Week 5, then hosted the Bucs on a short week with Tampa having played the previous Thursday. Now, they'll have another short week before heading out on a two-game road swing.

With all of the injuries, and Bo Nix standing on the other side, this is an extremely difficult game to evaluate. For what it's worth, it's my lowest-point game of the week in my Pick 'Em league (SU picks). The Sean Payton Return Factor must be accounted for, though, and I think Denver's defense – even without Patrick Surtain – can make this a low-scoring game and force Spencer Rattler into enough mistakes to deliver Denver a win.

My favorite play on this game is to fade both quarterbacks and take the U37.0.

The pick: Broncos 17 – Saints 14

Sunday London Game

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars -5.5

Total: 42.5

Oh, you thought the Jaguars were going to turn their season around? You thought they had some momentum after beating the Colts? Absolutely not. This is still one of the worst teams in football and now officially the worst defense in the NFL by EPA. At this point, you have to think Doug Pederson is coaching for his job on Sunday, and if the Jags lose to the Pats, hey may not have a spot on the plane back to Duval.

Offensively, Jacksonville should have the firepower to score on a Pats defense that just gave up 41 points to Houston – including 27 in the second half – but Jacksonville will likely be without the services of Travis Etienne. Given the presence of Tank Bigsby, I'm not sure how much that matters, but the Jags always have a way of making things much more complicated than they need to be.

On the New England side, the defense continues to slip, and injuries are mounting along the offensive line, but Drake Maye infused some much-needed juice to what had been the NFL's least-effective passing game. While Maye made the mistakes you'd expect any first-time starter to make, he ultimately threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns, including a beauty to Kayshon Boutte just before halftime.

Maye should be able to let it rip on the league's worst secondary, but the question is whether New England can do enough defensively to avoid a similar result to last week. My blackened heart says the Jags shouldn't be giving 5.5 points to anyone right now, but I do think the offense can do enough to win this game by a touchdown.

The pick: Jaguars 30 – Patriots 23

Sunday Early Slate

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3.0

Total: 51.5

Really interesting game between two similar teams that appear to be trending in opposite directions. I was high on Seattle coming into the season, and while they took advantage of a soft early schedule, the Seahawks have cratered in three straight losses to the Lions, Giants and 49ers. While Seattle continues to prove it can pile up yards in a hurry, the defense has given up 389, 420 and 483 yards of offense over those last three games. The Niners – down to a skeleton crew of running backs – ran for 228 yards in Week 6. 

This should set up well for Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and a Falcons offense that's piled up nearly 1,000 total yards in its last two games – wins over the Bucs (in OT) and the Panthers. For the most part, Atlanta's ground game has struggled, but both Robinson and Allgeier got loose against a bad Carolina defense.

With Seattle likely getting a couple key pieces back, this will be a tougher test, but Kirk Cousins is starting to settle in, and the passing attack looks significantly better than it did through the first few weeks.

Riding a three-game losing streak, I expect Seattle to come out firing, and I think we get plenty of points on the board. I'll take Atlanta to win a close game but won't be surprised if the Seahawks can get their act together and win on the road.

The pick: Falcons 31 – Seahawks 29

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -8.5

Total: 41.5

Buffalo got back on track on Monday night against the Jets – a game the Bills dominated early on but couldn't quite put away until late in the fourth quarter. I'm still skeptical of Buffalo's long-term ceiling, but even on short rest this should be a good spot against a Titans team starting one of the league's most mistake-prone quarterbacks.

After falling flat against the banged-up Colts last week, Tennessee is just 1-4-1 ATS on the season, with the lone win coming against the even-more-banged-up Dolphins in Week 5. This number does feel a bit high, especially if James Cook doesn't play, but we can't trust the Titans on the road in good faith right now. The Bills also made a big upgrade at receiver this week, bringing in Amari Cooper from Cleveland.

The pick: Bills 30 – Titans 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Bengals -5.5

Total: 42.0

While Cincy took care of business on Sunday night against the Giants, it did not happen in the fashion I expected. Offensively, the Bengals had been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, but after a Joe Burrow 47-yard rushing touchdown to open the game, the Bengals next eight drives went as follows: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, fumble, field goal, punt. Cincy did average a solid 5.8 yards per play, and held the Giants to just 4.2, but New York ran 22 more plays, had 11 more first-downs and once again controlled the time of possession battle.

All of that is to say the Bengals continue to be a difficult week-to-week evaluation, but they should be in a good spot against a Browns team that seemingly plays the exact same game every week. Credit to Cleveland for at least delivering a cover against Philly, but the Browns' offense finds a way to reach new levels of ineptitude on a weekly basis. While Nick Chubb could make his return this week, trading away their best weapon probably won't help things.

Entering Week 7, Cleveland ranks dead-last in rushing and overall EPA and is yet to score more than 18 points. The Browns have made just nine trips to the red zone all season, and they're converting third downs at a preposterous 19.2% clip (15-for-78) – far and away the worst mark in the league and literally the worst in NFL history.

Whereas last week the line felt like it got a bit out of hand in favor of Philly, I think there's a case to be made that the Bengals – even at 2-4 – could be a bigger favorite. Cleveland's defense remains formidable, but I expect a bounceback game from the Cincinnati offense this week.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Browns 17

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 47.5

With sincere apologies to Dolphins-Colts, this is clearly the big-dog game of the early window on Sunday. After building an early 24-0 lead, the Packers steamrolled the Cardinals in Week 6 and continue to be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Green Bay has piled up over 400 yards of offense in half of its games and ranks in the top-five in total yards, yards per play, yards per rush and net yards per pass attempt. 

Defensively, the Packers continue to force turnovers at a near-historic clip. After picking up three fumbles last week, Green Bay is up to 17 turnovers on the year – the most for any team through six games since the 2018 Bears (17). That has to cool off at some point, though, and most metrics place the Packers as close to a league-average defense on a yardage and per-play basis.

The big question for the Packers this week is whether they can generate pressure on C.J. Stroud. Green Bay's defense has feasted against sub-par offensive lines, but both Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness, last year's first-round pick, have mostly struggled this season. 

If Green Bay is able to get after Stroud, I like the Packers to win this game at home – especially with Nico Collins sidelined. Houston sits at 5-1, but they've been the NFL's third-luckiest team – if you subscribe to such things – thus far.

The return of Joe Mixon sparked the ground game last week, but if the Packers are able to keep Mixon in check and force Houston into obvious passing situations, I like their chances to rip off a third straight win before heading down to TrevorBank Field in Week 8.

One more thing to keep in mind: Green Bay is debuting its new white-out uniforms this week. Up to you if you'd like to factor that into your handicap.

The pick: Packers 30 – Texans 26

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -3.5

Total: 43.5

Here we have our Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I feel like I've been a complete disaster trying to pick either of these teams this season. Indianapolis continues to give us the quarterback rope-a-dope on a weekly basis, but I think this is the week Anthony Richardson returns.

For the Dolphins, that's probably good news. While Richardson's legs give the Colts' offense another wrinkle, Joe Flacco is far and away a more reliable passer. It's also fair to wonder just how much Indy will rely on Richardson the runner given the injuries he's already piled up through his brief NFL career.

Perhaps more importantly, the Colts will likely be without Jonathan Taylor for the third straight week. Without Taylor, Indy has failed to break 100 yards on the ground against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Miami's run defense has been hit or miss thus far, though it did give up 293 combined yards to Tennessee and New England before the bye.

With a week to prepare and regroup, I expect Miami to look more competent, but ultimately this is an offense that's produced 30 total points in three games without Tua Tagovailoa, so we need to temper our expectations.

The pick: Colts 23 – Dolphins 20

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -2.0

Total: 49.5

Big-time matchup in the NFC North with first place on the line. I'll start by saying that I'm a bit surprised Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point favorite. I know they're undefeated, coming off of a bye and Aidan Hutchinson is done for the season, but I expected Detroit's decimation of Dallas to have a bigger impact on the spread.

Either way, the Lions are my first lean here – partially because I think they're the most-balanced team in the NFL and partially because it feels like regression has to hit the Vikings at some point. To their credit, the Vikings have done nothing but beat average-to-well-above-average opponents, but this could be their toughest test to date.

The absence of Hutchinson, who had as many sacks as the rest of the team combined, looms large, but it's not large enough to push me off of Detroit. While I don't see this as a great spot for Jared Goff going up against the NFL's No. 1 defense, the Lions' rushing attack will be the best Minnesota has faced since San Francisco in Week 2.

The pick: Lions 27 – Vikings 26

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Spread: Eagles -3.5

Total: 43.0

How about a Saquon Barkley return game to finish out the early slate? Frankly, I'm thoroughly confused by both of these teams. Philly is clearly the better side, but the Eagles still make the easy things look difficult, and I'm not sure the coach of a 3-2 team has ever faced more security than Nick Sirianni.

Despite winning just about every statistical category imaginable last week, the Eagles only beat Cleveland by four. Of course, Philly did kneel out what would've been a scoring drive at the end, and the Browns did return a blocked field goal for a touchdown, but the reality is that the Eagles' three wins have come by a combined 12 points.

Meanwhile, the Giants came up short against Cincinnati on Sunday night but did well to limit the Bengals' offense and once again control the clock. Entering Week 7, the Giants are up to second in the NFL in both total plays run and average time of possession. If they can shorten the game and limit the explosive plays that ultimately sunk the Browns last week, New York should be able to hang around – especially with Malik Nabers (hopefully) back in the mix.

The pick: Eagles 26 – Giants 23

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -6.5

Total: 43.0

This line was Rams -5.5 when I began writing up my picks on Tuesday morning. It is now Tuesday afternoon, and we're up to 7.0. And rightfully so. The jump did coincide with the official trade of Davante Adams to New York, though it never seemed likely that Adams would play in this game, let alone ever again for the Raiders.

Either way, it's tough to put much faith in Vegas, which always seems to put up early points before a series of increasingly unfortunate and comical errors unfold, ultimately concluding in a loss. Last week, it was a goal line fumble that ended any chance of an upset against the Steelers.

This week, the Raiders head to LA to take on a Rams team coming out of a much-needed bye week. Los Angeles still has plenty of injuries on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield, but the (hopefully) return of Cooper Kupp will be massive for an offense that's failed to top 20 points in all four of its losses thus far.

I don't love this number, by any means, but we'll side with the Rams.

The pick: Rams 28 – Raiders 20

Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders

Spread: -8.0

Total: 52.0

Normally, this could be a potential letdown spot for a young team like Washington after a huge matchup against Baltimore in Week 6. But even after coming up short last week, I don't see the Commanders as that type of team. Despite the loss, I came away impressed with Washington's ability to avoid mistakes and hang around – especially without any semblance of a running game.

The Commanders now return home to face one of the three worst defenses in the NFL. As usual, the Panthers were able to hang around for much of last week's game before a few key mistakes, and that leaky defense, ultimately doomed them. I expect more of the same this week.

The pick: Commanders 33 – Panthers 24

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -1.5

Total: 47.0

As if Texans-Packers and Lions-Vikings weren't enough, we're treated to another marquee game in the late window. I'll admit, this one snuck up on me with the Chiefs on bye last week. At any rate, Kansas City finds itself as a road dog to a Niners team sitting at 3-3. The Niners certainly don't feel like a 3-3 team, and the oddsmakers aren't treating them as one.

Offensively, just about every stat tells us that the Niners are the better and more efficient team. That passes the eye test, as well. Despite sitting at 5-0, the Chiefs' offense looks a lot like the 2023 edition, though KC did show more explosiveness in its win over New Orleans prior to the bye. Without Rashee Rice and without Isiah Pacheco, this version of the Chiefs wins with defense and late-game heroics. Typically, Kansas City tends to save those for the postseason, but it's already 4-0 in one-score games this year. 

Even if Jordan Mason is out, I fully expect the 49ers to hit the gas and dig deep into the bag of tricks to generate offense. The Chiefs have been vulnerable through the air, especially against tight ends, so this should be a good spot for George Kittle to get loose.

On the KC side… I'm not sure what to expect. Perhaps the Chiefs' most-impressive trait is their ability to adapt on the fly and win in a variety of different game scripts. Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are carrying an 11-game SU winning streak into Week 7. Only two of those wins came by more than one score.

That streak will come to an end at some point, but I'm not missing out on a rare opportunity to take points with Patrick Mahomes. I don't care how many interceptions he's determined to throw this season.

The pick: Chiefs 23 – 49ers 21

Sunday Night Football

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Jets -1.5

Total: 38.5

As you may be aware by now, the Jets traded for little-known, journeyman wide receiver Davante Adams this week.

After watching the Jets the last few weeks, I'm not convinced that adding Adams is the cure to their issues. In fact, I'm pretty convinced that it's not. Ultimately, it doesn't really change much for me. Even so, I appreciate it. It's a fun, NBA-style trade that you don't see very often in the NFL. If nothing else, it certainly makes the Jets more interesting, and it propels one of the league's premier playmakers out of purgatory and back into the spotlight.

Having now dropped three straight after a disaster of a game on Monday night, the Jets cannot let another winnable game slip away. Pittsburgh is the type of opponent that can muck things up, slow the game down and take advantage of a mistake-prone Jets offensive line. Offensively, however, Pittsburgh is making a major change, as Mike Tomlin announced Tuesday that the now-healthy Russell Wilson will take over for Justin Fields.

While it feels like Wilson was always going to get his shot at the job, I'm not sure he's the better fit for the current version of this offense. Wilson is, of course, a better pure passer than Fields, but are the Steelers capable of using that to their advantage with one of the weakest receiver corps in the league?

I can't believe i'm saying this (and picking the Jets for a second straight week), but I do like this spot for New York. There could be some clunkiness with Wilson stepping in, and I think Pittsburgh will really miss Fields' ability to escape and use him in designed runs. For what it's worth, road favorites are 24-7 ATS this season.

The pick: Jets 27 – Steelers 20

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Ravens -3.5

Total: 49.5

If I've learned anything watching the NFL over the years, things rarely go as we expect them to. But Derrick Henry landing with the Ravens and pacing toward a 2,000-yard season feels like it's working exactly how Baltimore hoped it would. Coming off of another 100-yard day, Henry is back to being one of the NFL's premier weapons in the league's No. 2 offense by EPA. It won't surprise you that Baltimore is No. 1 in rushing EPA, ripping off 5.9 YPC and over 200 yards per game as a team.

This could be a tricky spot for the Ravens after a big home win over Washington. Tampa Bay's offense is humming right now with Bucky Irving (and maybe even Sean Tucker) helping unlock what had been a dorman running game. But it's the Bucs' defense that concerns me. Two weeks ago, Tampa allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 500 yards. Earlier in the year, Detroit piled up 463 yards, while even the Broncos were able to hit the 350 mark. 

Coming into Week 7, the Bucs rank 25th in rush defense EPA, giving up 4.7 YPC and surrendering eight touchdowns – the third-most in the NFL. That's a very poor recipe for trying to slow down the Ravens. For Tampa to hang around, they'll need another big day from Baker Mayfield, minus the killer mistakes he made in the second quarter against New Orleans.

Recent history suggests Mayfield, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans can keep the Bucs in this, but I don't trust the defense to hold up.

The pick: Ravens 34 – Buccaneers 27

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Total: 43.5

The second of our two Monday night games isn't quite as enticing, but we'll take what we can get. Personally, as a man who fought tooth and nail to live in a multi-TV household, I'm a fan of the Monday night double features. It does make the daytime window feel a bit empty, but it also gives us two shots at getting at least one banger in primetime.

Anyway, the Chargers took care of the Broncos in Denver last week, building a 23-0 lead before Denver stormed back in the fourth quarter. Even with underwhelming personnel, the Chargers continue to dictate pace and take care of business against bad teams. I would not put Arizona in the same category as Denver, Carolina or Las Vegas, but the Cardinals have some soul searching to do after falling flat at Lambeau last week.

Week-to-week, Arizona has been among the toughest teams to figure out. Sometimes, the offense looks balanced and explosive. Other times, Arizona can't run the ball and is force dto air it out with a sub-par crew of pass-catchers. Keep an eye on the status of Marvin Harrison Jr. this week. If he's out, I like the Chargers to slowly bleed out Arizona and win by a field goal. If Harrison is back, we may flip over to the Cardinals to pull the home upset.

The pick: Chargers 23 – Cardinals 20