Exploiting the Matchups: Week 15 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Written by

Published on December 12, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Kyler Murray (vs. NE) — 72% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (at SEA), Sam Darnold (vs. CHI), Baker Mayfield (at LAC)

Optimism regarding the Cardinals is in short supply, but they should get a temporary respite from the bleeding thanks to upcoming matchups with the Patriots and Cardinals. New England has allowed the 13th most fantasy points to QBs despite shutting down Joe Burrow in Week 1 and otherwise facing a lot of subpar signal-callers, ranking fourth to last in fantasy points allowed over expectation (+5.5 per game). It's a perfect get-right spot for both Murray individually and the Cardinals as a whole, with playoffs still a possibility if Arizona runs the table while Seattle either falls apart or ends up in a three-way tie atop the division (AZ needs a third team involved to win any tiebreaker over SEA).

Other Good Matchups: Brock Purdy (vs. LAR), Justin Herbert (vs. TB), Bo Nix (vs. IND), Kirk Cousins (at LV), Aaron Rodgers (at JAX), Bryce Young (vs. DAL), Cooper Rush (at CAR), Desmond Ridder (vs. ATL)

Running Backs 👍

Rico Dowdle (at CAR) — 66% started

Start Over — Tony Pollard (vs. CIN), James Cook (at

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Kyler Murray (vs. NE) — 72% started

Start Over — Jordan Love (at SEA), Sam Darnold (vs. CHI), Baker Mayfield (at LAC)

Other Good Matchups: Brock Purdy (vs. LAR), Justin Herbert (vs. TB), Bo Nix (vs. IND), Kirk Cousins (at LV), Aaron Rodgers (at JAX), Bryce Young (vs. DAL), Cooper Rush (at CAR), Desmond Ridder (vs. ATL)

Running Backs 👍

Rico Dowdle (at CAR) — 66% started

Start Over — Tony Pollard (vs. CIN), James Cook (at DET), Isiah Pacheco (at CLE)

Dowdle is an RB3 talent with an RB1 workload, which tends to work out just fine for fantasy in favorable matchups, as we saw the past two weeks when he scored 21.3 PPR points against the Giants and 15.1 against the Bengals. A similar score is likely this Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows a league-high 28.9 PPR points per game to running backs. No defense has allowed more rushing yards (1,802) or rushing TDs (15) to the position, which perhaps shouldn't be surprising given that the unit had subpar talent to begin with and then lost its two best front-seven players (Derrick Brown, Shaq Thompson) to season-ending injuries in September.

Brian Robinson (at NO) — 40% started

Start Over — D'Andre Swift (at MIN), Najee Harris (at PHI), Rhamondre Stevenson (at ARZ)

Robinson has landed between 13.1 and 20.3 PPR points in seven of 10 appearances this year, mostly providing solid scores when available even though his injury issues have encouraged the Commanders to have a quick hook in non-competitive games. It's possible this Sunday's contest in New Orleans will be one of those, but Robinson should have a big hand in any lead the Commanders build, as was the case in their past game when he had a 16-103-1 rushing line despite barely playing after halftime in a 42-19 win over the Titans. He'll now face a Saints defense that's been playing better lately but still doesn't have great talent, which is reflected in a league-high 5.03 YPC allowed to running backs.

Other Good Matchups: Derrick Henry (at NYG), Aaron Jones (vs. CHI), Chuba Hubbard (vs. DAL), Zach Charbonnet (vs. GB), Isaiah Davis & Braleon Allen (at JAX), Javonte Williams & Jaleel McLaughlin (vs. IND)

Wide Receivers 👍

Jakobi Meyers (vs. ATL) — 61% started

Start Over — Marvin Harrison (vs. NE), Amari Cooper (at DET), DeVonta Smith (vs. PIT)

Concern over the QB situation is more than justified, but Meyers belongs in fantasy lineups even if he has to catch passes from Desmond Ridder, coming off three straight games with at least 10 targets, six catches and 57 yards (36 total targets and 285 yards during the three-week stretch). In addition to the elite volume, Meyers has a home matchup with a disappointing Atlanta defense that just saw its rough season reach a nadir with last week's disaster in Minnesota. The Falcons thought their veteran-laden secondary would be reliable, but instead it's just been slow, although the bigger problem may be a toothless pass rush that's dead last in sacks (19) and bottom 10 in a slew of pressure stats. Only the Vikings have allowed more PPR points to wide receivers, and no team has allowed more points over expectation to the position.

Keenan Allen (at MIN) — 39% started

Start Over — Jameson Williams (vs. BUF), Deebo Samuel (vs. LAR), Jayden Reed (at SEA)

Allen got a season-high 15 targets against the Vikings three weeks ago, and while he obviously won't match that number this Monday, it shouldn't entirely be written off as a fluke. He's been targeted on 29.4 percent of routes against blitzes this season (compared to just 20.9 percent with four or fewer pass rushers), a far higher rate than both DJ Moore (20.0 percent) and Rome Odunze (20.2 percent). Allen should have another strong volume game this week, facing a Minnesota defense that's allowed a league-high 41.0 PPR points per game to WRs while blitzing on a league-high 38.7 percent of dropbacks. Don't let last week's dud in San Francisco dissuade you from starting Allen, particularly in full-PPR formats.

Other Good Matchups: Jauan Jennings & Deebo Samuel (vs. LAR), Drake London & Darnell Mooney (at LV), Davante Adams & Garrett Wilson (at JAX), Calvin Ridley & Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. CIN), Jordan Addison (vs. CHI), Devaughn Vele (vs. IND), Alec Pierce (at DEN), Michael Wilson (vs. NE)

Tight Ends 👍

Jake Ferguson (at CAR) — 40% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at LV), Cade Otton (at LAC), Tucker Kraft (at SEA)

Ferguson is having a Murphy's Law season, but he's still a solid player with underlying usage rates similar to last year's, including some numbers that have slightly improved (namely a 22.9 percent target rate, up from 20.9 percent last year, albeit with his aDOT dropping from 5.7 to 4.1). He returned to his normal role last week after a two-game absence in concussion protocol, getting six targets, 76.3 percent snap share and 73.5 percent route share in a loss to the Bengals. The production should now improve in Ferguson's second game back, facing a Panthers defense that's generally been terrible while allowing a league-high 16.8 PPR points per game to tight ends. Ferguson is back on the map as a low-end TE1,

Other Good Matchups: Travis Kelce & Noah Gray (at CLE), Trey McBride (vs. NE), Kyle Pitts (at LV), Tyler Conklin (at JAX)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Jordan Love (at SEA) — 57% started

Start Instead — Brock Purdy (vs. LAR), Jared Goff (vs. BUF), Tua Tagovailoa (at HOU)

Seattle's defensive performance throughout the season has fluctuated in the same direction as the general health of the unit, with a mostly solid year marred by an ugly stretch of outings in October/November when a slew of starters were unavailable. The Seahawks now have all their starters and key backups healthy besides CB Tre Brown, and they've won four straight games since a Week 10 bye while allowing 16-21 points in each contest. I don't buy the Packers as a three-point favorite against a good team that has a great home-field advantage, nor do I buy Love as a legitimate QB1 now that he's playing in a run-first offense (four straight games with 28 or fewer pass attempts since a Week 10 bye).

Other Tough Matchups: Jalen Hurts (vs. PIT), Matthew Stafford (at SF), Russell Wilson (at PHI)

Running Backs 👎

D'Andre Swift (at MIN) — 49% started

Start Instead — TBD (depends on teammate injuries)

Swift's production binge Weeks 4-9 feels like a distant memory, as he's scored single-digit fantasy points in four of the past five games while recording no more than 17 touches or 84 total yards in any contest. The workload is more RB2 than RB1 at this point, and with poor efficiency (3.8 YPC) to boot. Swift is especially unlikely to have a strong per-carry average Monday night, facing a strong Vikings defense (fourth fewest PPR points allowed to RBs) that held him to 9.5 PPR points three weeks ago.

The potential saving grace here is an opportunity for a massive snap share and total dominance of Chicago's RB workload if Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer both fail to clear concussion protocol by Monday. However, Johnson will be 18 days removed from his initial injury at that point, and if he does return he'll likely pick up where he left off as a poacher of both goal-line and passing-down snaps. If Johnson plays, the list of RBs I'd start over Swift would include Rhamondre Stevenson and Najee Harris. If Johnson is out again, I'll move Swift up some but still wouldn't start him over guys like Tyrone Tracy and Brian Robinson.

Nick Chubb (vs. KC) — 27% started

Start Instead — Isaiah Davis & Braelon Allen (at JAX), Tank Bigsby (vs. NYJ), Javonte Williams (vs. IND)

Chubb has four TDs in seven games but has offered basically nothing else, averaging 3.1 YPC and 0.71 receptions per game. Negative game scripts have hurt him, but the Browns also gave Jerome Ford a lot more playing time the past two weeks in neutral situations, including 50 percent of snaps and seven of the 13 RB opportunities (carries/target) before halftime in this past Sunday's loss at Pittsburgh. Ford got 23 touches to Chubb's 22 over the past two weeks, and a matchup with the defending champs could push things even more in Ford's direction... even more so because Kansas City leads the league in PPR points per game (13.8) and YPC (3.36) allowed to running backs.

Other Tough Matchups: De'Von Achane (at HOU), James Cook (at DET), Tyrone Tracy (vs. BAL), Isiah Pacheco (at CLE), Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren (at PHI)

Wide Receivers 👎

Amari Cooper (at DET) — 51% started

Start Instead — DeAndre Hopkins (at CLE), Calvin Ridley (vs. CIN), Zay Flowers (at NYG)

Cooper drew 14 targets in Sunday's 44-42 loss to the Rams, but he still wasn't quite a full-time player (54 percent snap share, 62 percent route share), running fewer routes than not only Khalil Shakir (81 percent) but also Mack Hollins (73 percent) and Dawson Knox (76 percent). Cooper got just 13 targets in his first four games with the Bills combined, and he'll now have more competition with both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid returning from injuries this week.

In addition to the volume concerns, Detroit's defense isn't nearly as friendly to wide receivers as the Defense Vs. Position stats (fifth most PPR points allowed) seem to suggest. A ton of that production came within the first few weeks of the season, and no team has allowed more yards to WRs aligned in the slot. Detroit has been much tougher to beat on the perimeter, where Cooper works, allowing just 7.3 YPT (8th) and three TDs (t-2nd) to WRs there. Only four teams have allowed a lower completion percentage (39.0) on perimeter targets 10-plus yards downfield, and only five have allowed fewer yards per attempt on those throws.

Jayden Reed (at SEA) — 38% started

Start Instead — Adam Thielen (vs. DAL), Darnell Mooney (at LV), Jameson Williams (vs. BUF)

The panic over Reed is justified — at least as far as fantasy football is concerned — even though his talent is apparent. He won't repeat last week's goose egg in Detroit, but there's also not much reason to expect more than a handful of targets from a player who has six or fewer in nine straight games. And while Reed has the skill to put up a big fantasy score with only a few opportunities, he'll have lower-than-usual odds to do so this Sunday, facing a healthy Seattle defense that uses top cornerback Devon Witherspoon in the slot.

Other Tough Matchups: A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (vs. PIT), Cooper Kupp (at SF), Michael Pittman (at DEN), Adam Thielen (vs. DAL), Keon Coleman (at DET), Kayshon Boutte (at ARZ), Van Jefferson & Calvin Austin (at PHI)

Tight Ends 👎

Pat Freiermuth (at PHI) — 26% started

Start Instead — Dalton Kincaid (at DET), Hunter Henry (at ARZ), Zach Ertz (at NO)

Freiermuth has three straight games with at least 48 yards and two in a row with touchdowns, but he's drawn three or fewer targets in seven of his past nine games, including Sunday's win over the Browns when WR George Pickens (hamstring) was inactive. While it's possible Freiermuth gets a volume boost in what likely will be Pickens' second missed game this Sunday, a road matchup with the excellent Philadelphia defense leaves the tight end looking at a likely efficiency dip relative to his phenomenal numbers for the season (88.0 percent catch rate, 9.4 YPT). Freiermuth is still startable if you need him, but this is a good week to pivot to another tight end in the same tier if that's an option.